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Expectations, market structure, and sequential bid pricing

Public agencies are frequently constrained to procure goods and services in sealed tender markets. Pricing decisions of firms participating in such markets have been analyzed for both static and dynamic situations. As might be anticipated, the decision rules obtained in these analyses depend in an integral way on the firm's perception of the behavior of other market participants. It is this aspect of the pricing problem to which our paper is directed.

Southern Economic Journal

Field expectations and the determination of wildcat drilling

There is currently some dissatisfaction with macroeconomic approaches to modeling the supply of domestic crude oil. One problem that has been pointed out is that the estimated supply responses of new discoveries brought about by price increases appear to be unrealistically high. Because data frequently used in these models are highly aggregated over time and include diverse geologic regions, this criticism may not be unwarranted. Moreover, with highly aggregated data testable hypotheses relating to operator behavior at the field level are limited. Because of the somewhat decentralized nature of firm decision making, operator field behavior significantly affects the wildcat drilling rate and hence the interarrival times, i.e., temporal sequence, of expected discoveries.

Southern Economic Journal

Economics and coal resource appraisal: strippable coal in the Illinois Basin ( USA)

Coal-resource appraisals generally describe the location and general characteristics of coal beds. Estimates are made of the average overburden depth (depth of the coal bed below the surface), bed thickness, and perhaps certain chemical properties of the coal [1]. Although such resource compilations represent an important initial step, neither they nor current estimates provide sufficient information to determine the costs of alternative options for National energy policy. Because coal is expected to provide an increasing part of future overall U.S. energy supply, it is crucial for long term planning that coalresource appraisals convey sufficient information regarding the degree of economic resource scarcity (escalation of unit costs for mining remaining deposits as the best deposits in an area are mined out) expected as coal consumption increases. However, assumptions embodied in most large-scale models of coal supply [13; 20] imply that the coal reserves that exist can be commercially produced as needed. As demonstrated by the embargo of 1973-1974 and more recent difficulties in obtaining crude oil, even a slight temporary commodity shortfall will result in significant economic losses when the commodity supplies a large proportion of the total energy used by an economy. For the United States, crude oil resource estimates did not give warning of a decline in domestic petroleum product. In this paper we argue that coal-resource estimates, as they are now made, will not give warning of future supply difficulties. A method for incorporating an economic dimension into appraisals of strippable coal resources is presented and is applied to a major U.S. coal-producing region, the Illinois part of the Illinois basin. Illinois accounts for nearly 70% of the demonstrated strippable coal reserve base of the Illinois basin [12]. In particular, a long-run incremental cost function (that is unit costs vs. cumulative reserves extracted) is estimated for strippable coal in Illinois. The estimated cost function exhibits an initial range over which costs increase at a constant rate-followed by a range where costs increase very rapidly and the function becomes quite inelastic. This long-run incremental cost function is significant for two reasons. Comparison of the demonstrated reserve base for strippable coal (14.8 billion tons) with cumulative production (since 1920 of 1.1 billion tons) might suggest that future depletion will not be significant when, in fact, the cost function presented here indicates otherwise. Because the only states having more reserves of strippable coal than Illinois are Montana and Wyoming [18], these results have implications for national coal-resource appraisal. Secondly, most models used to study the effects of alternative public policies in coal markets are static in nature [15; 16] and cannot consider the effects of increasing costs. Furthermore, models which are multi-period in nature [11; 13] appear to have little empirical basis for their assumptions regarding the escalation of production costs resulting from depletion. The plan of the paper is as follows. First a description of the analytical approach for constructing the long-run incremental cost-reserve function is discussed. Following this, the descriptions of the Illinois basin and the basic physical data are presented. In the concluding section, the main results are presented and their implications are explored

Southern Economic Journal

Contributed reports of widely felt earthquakes in California, United States: If they felt it, did they report it?

In a recent study, Hough and Martin (2021) considered the extent to which socioeconomic factors influence the numbers and distribution of contributed reports available to characterize the effects of both historical and recent large earthquakes. In this study I explore the question further, focusing on analysis of widely felt earthquakes near major population centers in northern and southern California since 2002. For most of these earthquakes there is a correlation between average household income in a postal ZIP code and the population-normalized rate of responses to the DYFI system. As past studies have demonstrated, there is also a strong correlation between DYFI participation and the severity of shaking. This first-order correlation can obscure correlations with other factors that influence participation. Focusing on five earthquakes between 2011 and 2021 that generated especially uniform shaking across the greater Los Angeles, California, region, response rate varies by two orders of magnitude across the region, with a clear correlation with demographics, and consistent spatial patterns in response rate for earthquakes 10 years apart. While there is no evidence that uneven DYFI participation in California impacts significantly the reliability of intensity data collected, the results reveal that DYFI participation is significantly higher in affluent parts of southern California compared to economically disadvantaged areas.

California

Systematic approach to prioritize wells for effective groundwater monitoring and management in the Arkansas Headwaters Basin, Colorado, USA

Study region The Arkansas Headwaters Basin, an intermountain basin in the Southern Rocky Mountains of North America. Study focus Our specific focus is choosing a set of wells to support a possible future regional groundwater-surface water model that would support water management. We present a three-step process using multiple criteria to score, predict, and choose prioritized wells that capture the full distribution of data including extremes. The three-step process provides accessible visualizations, fiscally efficient well prioritization, and screening useful for subsequent groundwater modeling. The novelty of the proposed methodology is the systematic approach integrating a scoring and a predictive approach to support a selection path. The systematic approach may be broadly adapted for other basins. New hydrological insights for the region Understanding regional hydrology hinges on efficient collection of hydrologic data that captures the relevant dynamics including extremes. The present study, a case study for a particular basin in the Southern Rocky Mountains, is the first use of a scripted (R software) strategy to select an economical and representative set of monitoring wells. Our findings suggest caution when using proximity as a proxy for correlation, because proximal wells in the same geologic formation and similar depths are not always correlated. In the Arkansas Headwaters Basin, subsurface geology may be less influential on groundwater elevations than broader hydrologic influences, such as regional drought.

Colorado

Conterminous United States land cover change patterns 2001–2016 from the 2016 National Land Cover Database

The 2016 National Land Cover Database (NLCD) product suite (available on www.mrlc.gov), includes Landsat-based, 30 m resolution products over the conterminous (CONUS) United States (U.S.) for land cover, urban imperviousness, and tree, shrub, herbaceous and bare ground fractional percentages. The release of NLCD 2016 provides important new information on land change patterns across CONUS from 2001-2016. For land cover, seven epochs were concurrently generated for years 2001, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2011, 2013, and 2016. Products reveal that land cover change is significant across most land cover classes and time periods. The land cover product was validated using existing reference data from the legacy NLCD 2011 accuracy assessment, applied to the 2011 epoch of the NLCD 2016 product line. The legacy and new NLCD 2011 overall accuracies were 82% and 83%, respectively, (standard error was 0.5%), demonstrating a small but significant increase in overall accuracy. Between 2001-2016, the CONUS landscape experienced significant change, with almost 8% of the landscape having experienced a land cover change at least once during this time. Nearly 50% of that change involves forest, driven by change agents of harvest, fire, disease and pests that resulted in an overall forest decline, including increasing fragmentation and loss of interior forest. Agricultural change represented 15.9% of the change, with total agricultural spatial extent showing only a slight increase of 4,778 km2, however there was a substantial decline (7.94%) in pasture/hay during this time, transitioning mostly to cultivated crop. Water and wetland change comprised 15.2% of change and represent highly dynamic land cover classes from epoch to epoch, heavily influenced by precipitation. Grass and shrub change comprise 14.5% of the total change, with most change resulting from fire. Developed change was the most persistent and permanent land change increase adding almost 29,000 km2 over 15 years (5.6% of total CONUS change), with southern states exhibiting expansion much faster than most of the northern states. Temporal rates of developed change increased in 2001-2006 at twice the rate of 2011-2016, reflecting a slowdown in CONUS economic activity. Future NLCD plans include increasing monitoring frequency, reducing latency time between satellite imaging and product delivery, improving accuracy and expanding the variety of products available in an integrated database.

ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing

The hidden cost of wildfires: Economic valuation of health effects of wildfire smoke exposure in Southern California

There is a growing concern that human health impacts from exposure to wildfire smoke are ignored in estimates of monetized damages from wildfires. Current research highlights the need for better data collection and analysis of these impacts. Using unique primary data, this paper quantifies the economic cost of health effects from the largest wildfire in Los Angeles County's modern history. A cost of illness estimate is \$9.50 per exposed person per day. However, theory and empirical research consistently find that this measure largely underestimates the true economic cost of health effects from exposure to a pollutant in that it ignores the cost of defensive actions taken as well as disutility. For the first time, the defensive behavior method is applied to calculate the willingness to pay for a reduction in one wildfire smoke induced symptom day, which is estimated to be \$84.42 per exposed person per day.

California

Zooplankton dynamics in a Great Lakes connecting channel: Exploring the seasonal composition within the St. Clair-Detroit River System

The connecting channels linking the Laurentian Great Lakes provide important migration routes, spawning grounds, and nursery habitat for fish, but their role as conduits between lakes for zooplankton is less understood. To address this knowledge gap in the St. Clair–Detroit River System (SCDRS), a comprehensive survey of crustacean zooplankton was performed in both riverine and lacustrine habitats from spring to fall 2014, providing the first system-wide assessment of zooplankton in the SCDRS. Zooplankton density and biomass were greatest in northern reaches of the system (southern Lake Huron and the St. Clair River) and decreased downstream towards Lake Erie. The composition of zooplankton also changed moving downstream, transitioning from a community dominated by calanoid copepods, to more cyclopoids and cladocerans in the Detroit River, and to cladocerans dominant in western Lake Erie. Coincidentally, species richness increased as sampling progressed downstream, and we estimated that our single-year sampling regime identified ~88% of potential taxa. Other species assemblages have responded positively to recent water quality and habitat restoration efforts in the SCDRS, and this survey of the zooplankton community provides benchmark information necessary to assess its response to continued recovery. In addition, information regarding the lower trophic levels of the system is integral to understanding recruitment of ecologically and economically valuable fish species targeted for recovery in the SCDRS.

St. Clair-Detroit River System

Potential shale-oil resources of a stratigraphic sequence above the Mahogany Zone, Green River Formation, Piceance Creek Basin, Colorado

In the southern part of the Piceance Creek basin the upper part of the Green River Formation above the Mahogany zone contains beds of rich oil shale which may be economically recoverable by a surface-mining operation. Four units within this sequence were evaluated for thickness, distribution, oil yield, and potential shale-oil resources. In the area appraised, total estimated resources of 128.5 billion bbl of oil are contained within the sequence. It is thickest in T. 3 S., R. 96 W., where 354 feet of oil shale yields an average of 14 gal of oil per ton, with a total resource of 9.0 billion bbl. It is richest in T. 5 S., R. 96 W., where 250 feet of oil shale yields an average of 19 gal of oil per ton, with a total resource of 6.5 billion bbl. Resources are tabulated for four units of the sequence.

Colorado, Utah, Wyoming

Projected changes in mangrove distribution and vegetation structure under climate change in the southeastern United States

Aim The climate change-induced transition from grass-dominated marshes to woody-plant-dominated mangrove forests has the potential to impact the ecosystem goods and services provided by coastal wetlands. To better anticipate and prepare for these impacts, there is a need to advance understanding of future changes in mangrove distribution and coastal wetland vegetation structural properties due to warming winters. Location Southeastern United States. Time Period Recent (1981–2010) and future (2071–2100). Major Taxa Studied Coastal wetland vegetation. Methods We estimated changes in mangrove distribution and coastal wetland vegetation structure using known climate-ecological relationships, recent climate data for the period 1981–2010, and future projected climate data for the period 2071–2100. We quantified potential changes in mangrove presence, mangrove relative abundance, coastal wetland vegetation height, and coastal wetland vegetation aboveground biomass under two Shared Socio-Economic Pathway scenarios (SSPs; SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5), which correspond to intermediate and high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, respectively. Results Our analyses indicate that mangrove presence and relative abundance will dramatically increase in the northern Gulf of Mexico and the southeast Atlantic coast of the United States, particularly under the high emissions scenario. Because of the higher stature of mangroves relative to salt marsh vegetation, this expansion will cause a transformative change in coastal wetland vegetation height and aboveground biomass in many areas. However, along the arid southern Texas coast, low precipitation and high salinities are expected to constrain mangrove expansion and growth. Main Conclusions Our results show where and to what extent climate change, in the form of winter temperature warming, is projected to enable the transition from shorter, grass-dominated salt marshes to taller, woody plant-dominated mangrove forests in the southeastern United States, with consequent impacts on ecosystem goods and services.

Journal of Biogeography

The colonial ascidian Didemnum sp. A: current distribution, basic biology and potential threat to marine communities of the northeast and west coasts of North America

Didemnum sp. A is a colonial ascidian with rapidly expanding populations on the east and west coasts of North America. The origin of Didemum sp. A is unknown. Populations were first observed on the northeast coast of the U.S. in the late 1980s and on the west coast during the 1990s. It is currently undergoing a massive population explosion and is now a dominant member of many subtidal communities on both coasts. To determine Didemnum sp. A's current distribution, we conducted surveys from Maine to Virginia on the east coast and from British Columbia to southern California on the west coast of the U.S. between 1998 and 2005. In nearshore locations Didemnum sp. A currently ranges from Eastport, Maine to Shinnecock Bay, New York on the east coast. On the west coast it has been recorded from Humboldt Bay to Port San Luis in California, several sites in Puget Sound, Washington, including a heavily fouled mussel culture facility, and several sites in southwestern British Columbia on and adjacent to oyster and mussel farms. The species also occurs at deeper subtidal sites (up to 81 m) off New England, including Georges, Stellwagen and Tillies Banks. On Georges Bank numerous sites within a 230 km2 area are 50–90% covered by Didemnum sp. A; large colonies cement the pebble gravel into nearly solid mats that may smother infaunal organisms. These observations suggest that Didemnum sp. A has the potential to alter marine communities and affect economically important activities such as fishing and aquaculture.

British Columbia, California, Connecticut, Maine,

Satellite tracking of Galapagos Petrel Pterodroma phaeopygia reveals distribution and movements during chick rearing

We tracked 19 adult Galapagos Petrels Pterodroma phaeopygia during the chick-rearing seasons in 2009 and 2010 (Santa Cruz Island [ n = 16] and Floreana Island [ n = 3]) in the Galápagos Islands, Ecuador. Eight petrels performed 27 complete foraging trips lasting 0.6 to 18.8 days. Short trips (3.2 ± 2.1 days; 785 km; max displacement 671 km) and long trips (10.8 ± 3.9 days; 2,856 km; max displacement 1,034 km) resulted in concentrated use of waters off southern and western Isabela Island and within the Galápagos Marine Reserve (GMR). Less concentrated time extended farther southwest and eastward, in that case toward mainland Ecuador. Total distance covered among all completed trips, independent of duration, was strongly correlated with trip duration ( R ² = 0.92), indicating a strategy favoring active searching and foraging over commuting. Petrels ranged across Ecuador's exclusive economic zone (EEZ), as well as other countries' (Colombia, Costa Rica, Perú), and waters beyond; they spent 46%, 27%, and 34% of their time in the GMR during short, long, and apparent (incomplete) trips, respectively. However, overlap with EEZs or marine protected areas (MPAs) does not necessarily confer protection, because commercial tuna fishing, including legal fishing historically permitted inside the GMR, occurs within these waters. Including all complete and incomplete trips, petrels spent 37% of their time in high-seas waters without formal protection, outside both MPAs and EEZs. While some hot spots overlapped Galápagos MPAs, the far-ranging nature of chick-provisioning petrels underscores the importance for this species of also having coordinated, multinational protection of the high seas.

Floreana Island, Galápagos Islands, Santa Cruz Isl

Trends and spatial distribution of annual and seasonal rainfall in Ethiopia

As a country whose economy is heavily dependent on low-productivity rainfed agriculture, rainfall trends are often cited as one of the more important factors in explaining various socio-economic problems such as food insecurity. Therefore, in order to help policymakers and developers make more informed decisions, this study investigated the temporal dynamics of rainfall and its spatial distribution within Ethiopia. Changes in rainfall were examined using data from 134 stations in 13 watersheds between 1960 and 2002. The variability and trends in seasonal and annual rainfall were analysed at the watershed scale with data (1) from all available years, and (2) excluding years that lacked observations from at least 25% of the gauges. Similar analyses were also performed at the gauge, regional, and national levels. By regressing annual watershed rainfall on time, results from the one-sample t -test show no significant changes in rainfall for any of the watersheds examined. However, in our regressions of seasonal rainfall averages against time, we found a significant decline in June to September rainfall (i.e. Kiremt) for the Baro-Akobo, Omo-Ghibe, Rift Valley, and Southern Blue Nile watersheds located in the southwestern and central parts of Ethiopia. While the gauge level analysis showed that certain gauge stations experienced recent changes in rainfall, these trends are not necessarily reflected at the watershed or regional levels.

International Journal of Climatology

A simulation/optimization model for groundwater resources management in the Afram Plains area, Ghana

A groundwater flow simulation model was developed using available hydrogeo logical data to A groundwater flow simulation model was developed using available hydrogeological data to describe groundwater flow in the Afram Plains area. A nonlinear optimization model was then developed and solved for the management of groundwater resources to meet irrigation and household needs. The objective was to maximize groundwater extraction for irrigation activities from the shallow aquifers of the southern Voltaian Sedimentary Basin that underly the area This would improve food security, raise the standard of living and ultimately alleviate poverty in the Afram Plains. The calibrated flow model is in tandem with the general hydrochemical evolution of groundwater in the area and fits the observed data with about a 98% degree of confidence. Groundwater resources may not be the limiting factor in the development of irrigated agriculture. Groundwater has tremendous potential to meet current and future irrigation needs. It was determined from this study that profit from maize irrigation in the Afram Plains area could rise from US$301, 000 in 2007 to over US$3.5 million by the end of the last management period (2013) as irrigation practice is improved, and the economic strength to increase the acreage for irrigation improves. Even with these margins of profit, the drawdown constraint was not reached in any of the management periods. It is expected that rechargefrom the irrigation water would reclaim the lost hydraulic head. The single significant constraint was the amount of land area that could be developed for irrigation in the area. The profit obtained per unit cubic meter of water used also improved over the same management period.

Journal of Environmental Hydrology

Factors Controlling Pre-Columbian and Early Historic Maize Productivity in the American Southwest, Part 1: The Southern Colorado Plateau and Rio Grande Regions

Maize is the New World's preeminent grain crop and it provided the economic basis for human culture in many regions within the Americas. To flourish, maize needs water, sunlight (heat), and nutrients (e. g., nitrogen). In this paper, climate and soil chemistry data are used to evaluate the potential for dryland (rainon-field) agriculture in the semiarid southeastern Colorado Plateau and Rio Grande regions. Processes that impact maize agriculture such as nitrogen mineralization, infiltration of precipitation, bare soil evaporation, and transpiration are discussed and evaluated. Most of the study area, excepting high-elevation regions, receives sufficient solar radiation to grow maize. The salinities of subsurface soils in the central San Juan Basin are very high and their nitrogen concentrations are very low. In addition, soils of the central San Juan Basin are characterized by pH values that exceed 8.0, which limit the availability of both nitrogen and phosphorous. In general, the San Juan Basin, including Chaco Canyon, is the least promising part of the study area in terms of dryland farming. Calculations of field life, using values of organic nitrogen for the upper 50 cm of soil in the study area, indicate that most of the study area could not support a 10-bushel/acre crop of maize. The concepts, methods, and calculations used to quantify maize productivity in this study are applicable to maize cultivation in other environmental settings across the Americas. ?? 2010 US Government.

Journal of Archaeological Method and Theory

Low-btu gas in the US Midcontinent: A challenge for geologists and engineers

Several low-btu gas plays can be defined by mapping gas quality by geological horizon in the Midcontinent. Some of the more inviting plays include Permian strata west of the Central Kansas uplift and on the eastern flank of Hugoton field and Mississippi chat and other pays that subcrop beneath (and directly overlie) the basal Pennsylvanian angular unconformity at the southern end of the Central Kansas uplift. Successful development of these plays will require the cooperation of reservoir geologists and process engineers so that the gas can be economically upgraded and sold at a nominal pipeline quality of 950 btu/scf or greater. Nitrogen is the major noncombustible contaminant in these gas fields, and various processes can be utilized to separate it from the hydrocarbon gases. Helium, which is usually found in percentages corresponding to nitrogen, is a possible ancillary sales product in this region. Its separation from the nitrogen, of course, requires additional processing. The engineering solution for low-btu gas depends on the rates, volumes, and chemistry of the gas needing upgrading. Cryogenic methods of nitrogen removal are classically used for larger feed volumes, but smaller feed volumes characteristic of isolated, low-pressure gas fields can now be handled by available small-scale PSA technologies. Operations of these PSA plants are now downscaled for upgrading stripper well gas production. Any nitrogen separation process should be sized, within reason, to match the anticipated flow rate. If the reservoir rock surprises to the upside, the modularity of the upgrading units is critical, for they can be stacked to meet higher volumes. If a reservoir disappoints (and some will), modularity allows the asset to be moved to another site without breaking the bank.

Oil & Gas Journal

Zircon geochronology and geochemistry of Quaternary rhyolite domes of the Coso volcanic field, Inyo County, California

The Quaternary Coso volcanic field (CVF) is a compositionally bimodal volcanic field located within a releasing bend along the eastern range-front Sierra Nevada fault zone in California's southern Owens Valley. The erupted products of CVF silicic magmatism since ~1 Ma comprise 38 high-silica rhyolite domes, with the volumetric majority (~99%) of rhyolite emplaced within the past ~300 ka. The CVF hosts an economically important geothermal field driven by heat associated with a shallow (~5 km) igneous intrusion. The CVF is potentially an immature analog to the nearby Long Valley system, which culminated in generation and eruption of the voluminous and widespread Bishop Tuff. As such, the CVF represents a considerable volcanic hazard, making a detailed understanding of the eruptive history and pre-eruptive conditions of the system critically important. We present uranium-series isochron dates from zircon ± allanite crystal surfaces and zircon trace element geochemical data on the youngest 17 rhyolite domes at Coso, which represent ~60% (by volume) of the silicic magma erupted by the system. These data suggest: (1) a shorter emplacement duration than previously recognized for these domes, with a duration of 20 ± 5 ka; (2) 4 shorter-duration eruption pulses within this interval, all of which occur during the marine isotope stage (MIS) 5 interglacial period; (3) an uptick in the volume of CVF magma erupted between ~200 ka and ~ 78 ka relative to that emplaced over the lifetime of the system; (4) near-coeval eruption of geochemically distinct magma in close geographic proximity, either sourced from different portions of the same magma system at depth or from discrete, uncommunicating bodies; (5) ambiguity with respect to whether or not CVF magmatism is time-predictable, as previously suggested, or erupted as a series of punctuated episodes; (6) no rhyolite volcanism in the past ~78 kyr.

California

Challenges and opportunities in mitigating sarcoptic mange in wild South American camelids

Vicuñas ( Vicugna vicugna ) and guanacos ( Lama guanicoe ) are the two species of wild South American camelids whose distributions range from Peru to northern Argentina and southern Peru to southern Argentina, respectively. Listed as critically endangered in the 1960s due to poaching, vicuña numbers had been gradually recovering; however, new concerns about population stability have arisen with recent observations of sarcoptic mange outbreaks in this species. Sarcoptic mange is an infectious skin disease caused by the microscopic burrowing mite, Sarcoptes scabiei , which infects nearly 150 mammalian species globally, including guanaco and vicuña. Wild camelid populations across Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, and Peru have been affected by sarcoptic mange, with the most severe outbreaks resulting in localized extirpation. Population declines have conservation and economic implications, as many local communities harvest vicuña and guanaco fiber for profit. We review the current literature on sarcoptic mange in wild camelids from Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, and Peru to establish a current state of knowledge on spatial prevalence, management, and therapeutics, and identify existing knowledge gaps. Critical next steps include 1) implementation of effective management strategies that limit the transmission of sarcoptic mange, 2) standardization of data collected during community capture (i.e., chaccu) events, 3) assessing the potential role of community captures in mite transmission, and 4) evaluation of treatment options and best practices for implementation. Further, there is a need for capacity building to improve disease diagnostics and surveillance in wild camelids. A multisectoral collaboration between governmental authorities, communities, academic institutions, and national and international organizations focusing on wild South American camelid conservation could contribute to building actions aimed at preventing future outbreaks and mitigating the current burden of sarcoptic mange disease.

Journal of Wildlife Management