Seventy-fifth anniversary of Seismological Society of America
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California↗
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Clarence Allen talks about the responsibilities in earthquake prediction
Dr. Clarence R. Allen is professor of geology and geophysics at the California Institute of Technology. He has been a member of advisory panels to the Executive Office of the President, National Academy of Sciences, National Science Foundation, U.S Geological Survey, UNESCO, California State Mining and Geology Board, and the California Department of Water Resources. Dr. Allen has been President of both the Geological Society of America and the Seismological Society of America (SSA). The title of this interview is based on his presidential address to the SSA in 1976.
Earthquake Information Bulletin (USGS)↗
Recent advances in rotational seismology
Rotational seismology is an emerging field of study concerned with all aspects of rotational motions induced by earthquakes, explosions, and ambient vibrations. Two recent monographs (Teisseyre et al. 2006; Teisseyre et al. 2008) and a Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America special issue on Rotational Seismology and Engineering Applications (Lee, Celebi et al. 2009) are useful starting points. Rotational seismology is of interest to a wide range of disciplines, including various branches of seismology, earthquake engineering, and geodesy, as well as to physicists using Earth-based observatories for detecting gravitational waves generated by astronomical sources.
Seismological Research Letters↗
Performance of Irikura recipe rupture model generator in earthquake ground motion simulations with Graves and Pitarka hybrid approach
We analyzed the performance of the Irikura and Miyake (Pure and Applied Geophysics 168(2011):85–104, 2011) (IM2011) asperity-based kinematic rupture model generator, as implemented in the hybrid broadband ground motion simulation methodology of Graves and Pitarka (Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 100(5A):2095–2123, 2010), for simulating ground motion from crustal earthquakes of intermediate size. The primary objective of our study is to investigate the transportability of IM2011 into the framework used by the Southern California Earthquake Center broadband simulation platform. In our analysis, we performed broadband (0–20 Hz) ground motion simulations for a suite of M6.7 crustal scenario earthquakes in a hard rock seismic velocity structure using rupture models produced with both IM2011 and the rupture generation method of Graves and Pitarka (Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 2016) (GP2016). The level of simulated ground motions for the two approaches compare favorably with median estimates obtained from the 2014 Next Generation Attenuation-West2 Project (NGA-West2) ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) over the frequency band 0.1–10 Hz and for distances out to 22 km from the fault. We also found that, compared to GP2016, IM2011 generates ground motion with larger variability, particularly at near-fault distances (<12 km) and at long periods (>1 s). For this specific scenario, the largest systematic difference in ground motion level for the two approaches occurs in the period band 1–3 s where the IM2011 motions are about 20–30% lower than those for GP2016. We found that increasing the rupture speed by 20% on the asperities in IM2011 produced ground motions in the 1–3 s bandwidth that are in much closer agreement with the GMPE medians and similar to those obtained with GP2016. The potential implications of this modification for other rupture mechanisms and magnitudes are not yet fully understood, and this topic is the subject of ongoing study. We concluded that IM2011 rupture generator performs well in ground motion simulations using Graves and Pitarka hybrid method. Therefore, we recommend it to be considered for inclusion into the framework used by the Southern California Earthquake Center broadband simulation platform.
Pure and Applied Geophysics↗
Summary of the discussions during 2023 SSA topical meeting on “Future Directions for Physics-Based Ground Motion Modeling”
The Seismological Society of America (SSA) topical conference, Future Directions for Physics‐Based Ground Motion Modeling, was held in Vancouver, Canada, on 10–13 October 2023, co‐sponsored by the Seismological Society of Japan and co‐chaired by Annemarie Baltay of the U.S. Geological Survey and Hiroshi Kawase of Kyoto University. This meeting brought together many researchers and practitioners interested in modeling, observing, and utilizing ground‐motion models (GMMs). Scientists gathered to discuss complex kinematic and dynamic rupture simulation approaches, empirical representations of the earthquake source, site and path effects, physical modeling of the recording site, challenges for model extrapolation, and overall prediction accuracy and simulation validation. The four‐day meeting included many posters as well as oral presentations, with each session followed by lively discussion sections, upon which we report here.
Seismological Research Letters↗
2016 Eastern Section SSA Annual Meeting Report
Report on the Eastern Section Seismological Society of America Meeting.
Virginia↗
SSA task force on diversity, equity, and inclusion: Toward a changing, inclusive future in earthquake science
In the United States, a wide variety of studies show that the geoscience community does not reflect the broader societal makeup (e.g., Velasco and Jaurrieta de Velasco, 2010; Dutt, 2020; Howley, 2020). In fact, only about 10% of all Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) Ph.D. degrees are awarded to people of color, although they represent more than a third of the population (Dutt, 2020). These numbers have changed little over the past 40 yr (e.g., Bernard and Cooperdock, 2018; Dutt, 2020). Recent events in the United States have again raised awareness of this discrepancy in many fields; similar divergences may be present throughout the world. This discrepancy represents a tremendous loss of talent and contributes to ongoing bias and racism. As the premier international seismological professional society, Seismological Society of America (SSA) is committed, as stated in its ethics policy, to “freedom and transparency in research and education, which should be conducted in a supportive, inclusive, and respectful environment, free from any discrimination, harassment or bullying.” SSA convened the SSA Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) Task Force to identify specific and actionable recommendations that the Society can take to start to address the significant issues surrounding the systematic underrepresentation in seismology and related geosciences by marginalized groups on both short- and long- term time horizons. This report, written by the Task Force, outlines actionable items that SSA can undertake as well as a framework by which progress can be measured to help guide the Society and its members forward as a community to make earthquake science more just, equitable, diverse, and inclusive. We recognize that this document cannot address the multiple individual, cultural, and historical barriers that some members may face (e.g., Núñez et al., 2020), nor can it reflect all possibilities or all recommended practices (e.g., Ali et al., 2021). What this document does represent, however, is the beginning of what we hope to be a significant cultural change in how we conduct earthquake science as an organization, not the end of this process as the Task Force fulfills its charter. As a note, some of the recommendations that the Task Force has outlined here have already been implemented within SSA or are actively being considered. For completeness, we still include them here because this highlights the commitment to change that SSA leadership has embraced.
Seismological Research Letters↗
BSSA: Worth thinking about
The Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America ( BSSA ) is a powerful community project that has helped us share the information necessary to keep our field moving forward since 1911. In some ways, BSSA is much like it has always been, and each issue provides us with a collection of research that has been improved by the peer review process and copyedited, typeset, and printed to make it easily readable. But BSSA has also constantly evolved, and the online edition with full-text searching of all content back to volume 1 and linked references that speed our navigation through the related literature is unlike anything J. C. Branner could have imagined when he edited the first issue.
Seismological Research Letters↗
Shear-wave velocity site characterization in Oklahoma from joint inversion of multi-method surface seismic measurements: Implications for central U.S. Ground Motion Prediction
We analyze multimethod shear (SH)‐wave velocity ( V S "> V S ) site characterization data acquired at three permanent and 25 temporary seismograph stations in Oklahoma that recorded M 4+ earthquakes within a 50 km hypocentral distance of at least one of the 2016 M 5.1 Fairview, M 5.8 Pawnee, or M 5.0 Cushing earthquakes to better constrain earthquake ground‐motion modeling in the region. We acquired active‐source seismic data for time‐averaged V S "> V S to 30 m depth ( V S "> V S V S 30 "> 30 ) at 28 seismograph stations near the Fairview, Pawnee, and Cushing epicentral areas. The SH‐wave refraction travel times coupled with Rayleigh‐ and Love‐wave phase velocity dispersion were extracted and modeled in a nonlinear least‐squares (L2) joint inversion to obtain a best‐fit 1D V S "> V S versus depth profile for each site. At a subset of sites where the preferred L2 inverse model did not optimally fit each of the Love, Rayleigh, and SH travel‐time datasets, we explore application of simulated annealing in a joint inversion to find a more global solution. V S "> V S V S 30 "> 30 values range from 262 to 807    m / s "> 807 m / s for the preferred measured (in situ) V S "> V S profiles, or National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) site class D to B, and are broadly comparable with estimates from previous data reports in the region. Site amplification estimates were calculated next from 1D SH transfer functions of the preferred V S "> V S VS profiles and then compared against observed horizontal‐to‐vertical spectral ratios (HVSRs) from nearby seismograph stations. We generally see good agreement between the predicted in situ model and the observed HVSR resonant frequencies, with nominal amplifications between 2 and 10 within the 2–15 Hz frequency band. Next, using 40 known in situ V S "> V S V S 30 "> 30 measurements in the region, we demonstrate that the in situ V S "> V S V S 30 "> 30 values improve the fit for selected suites of ground‐motion models (GMMs) for M 4+ earthquakes within a 50 km hypocentral distance when compared with proxy methods, arguing for future development of GMMs implementing in situ V S "> V S profiles.
Oklahoma↗
Topographic Slope as a Proxy for Seismic Site-Conditions (VS30) and Amplification Around the Globe
Executive Summary It is well-known that large global earthquakes can have a dramatic effect on local communities and the built environment. Moreover, ground motions amplified by surficial materials can exacerbate the situation, often making the difference between minor and major damage. For a real-time earthquake impact alert system, such as Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) (Wald and others, 2006), we seek to rapidly evaluate potential ground shaking in the source region and subsequently provide an estimate of the population exposure to potentially fatal levels of ground shaking in any region of the world. The contribution of surficial geology (particularly soft sediments) to the amplification of ground shaking is an important component in predicting the levels of ground motion observed at any site. Unfortunately, the availability of information regarding seismic siteconditions is only available at a few sites around the globe. Herein, we describe a methodology for deriving maps of seismic site-conditions anywhere in the world using topographic slope as a proxy. Average shear-velocity down to 30 m (or VS30) measurements are correlated against topographic slope to develop two sets of coefficients for predicting VS30: one for active tectonic regions that possess dynamic topographic relief, and one for stable continental regions where changes in topography are more subdued. These coefficients have been applied to the continental United States, in addition to other regions around the world. They are subsequently compared to existing site-condition maps based on geology and observed VS30 measurements, where available. The application of the topographic slope method in regions with abundant VS30 measurements (for example California, Memphis, and Taiwan) indicates that this method provides site condition-maps of similar quality, or in some cases, maps superior to those developed from more traditional techniques. Having a first-order assessment of seismic site-conditions anywhere in the world provides a valuable tool to rapidly estimate ground motions following any global earthquake, the primary motivation for this research. These VS30 maps will enable us to better quantify possible ground shaking and rapidly deliver these predictions to emergency managers and responders. In addition, the VS30 maps for the globe will also have practical applications for numerous related probabilistic- and scenario-based studies. To date, several researchers have requested maps or have used the approach outlined herein for their own applications (for example Cagnan and Kariptas, written commun., 2007; Harmandar and others, 2007). Given that we anticipate a significant demand for these products, we have developed an internet delivery service so that users can download maps and grids of seismic site-conditions for specified regions. To some extent, these grids can also be customized by the user if they disagree with the predefined correlations derived using the methodologies described within this report. Finally, this report represents a more comprehensive account of this technique and provides a more fully illustrated global description of results than that given in Wald and Allen (2007), which has been accepted for publication in the Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America.
Open-File Report↗
Overview of the Southern San Andreas Fault Model
This appendix summarizes the data and methodology used to generate the source model for the southern San Andreas fault. It is organized into three sections, 1) a section by section review of the geological data in the format of past Working Groups, 2) an overview of the rupture model, and 3) a manuscript by Biasi and Weldon (in review Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America) that describes the correlation methodology that was used to help develop the ?geologic insight? model. The goal of the Biasi and Weldon methodology is to quantify the insight that went into developing all A faults; as such it is in concept consistent with all other A faults but applied in a more quantitative way. The most rapidly slipping fault and the only known source of M~8 earthquakes in southern California is the San Andreas fault. As such it plays a special role in the seismic hazard of California, and has received special attention in the current Working Group. The underlying philosophy of the current Working Group is to model the recurrence behavior of large, rapidly slipping faults like the San Andreas from observed data on the size, distribution and timing of past earthquakes with as few assumptions about underlying recurrence behavior as possible. In addition, we wish to carry the uncertainties in the data and the range of reasonable extrapolations from the data to the final model. To accomplish this for the Southern San Andreas fault we have developed an objective method to combine all of the observations of size, timing, and distribution of past earthquakes into a comprehensive set of earthquake scenarios that each represent a possible history of earthquakes for the past ~1400 years. The scenarios are then ranked according to their overall consistency with the data and then the frequencies of all of the ruptures permitted by the current Working Group?s segmentation model are calculated. We also present 30-yr conditional probabilities by segment and compare to previous results. A distinctive aspect of the current model is that the probability is higher at both ends of the fault and that the ends have a much greater fraction of smaller events. There is a significant difference in the likelihood of large (M 7.7-8.0) earthquakes along the fault from north to south, with large 1857-like events common on the northern half of the southern San Andreas fault but relatively few M 7.7-8.0 expected on the southern half.
Open-File Report↗
Charles F. Richter: A personal tribute
With the death of Charles Richter in 1985, the seismological community lost a renowned colleague, and many of us lost a close friend and advisor. Charles was born on a farm in Ohio in 1900, received his A.B. from Stanford in 1920, and his Ph.D. from Caltech in 1928. Virtually his entire professional career was spent at the Seismological Laboratory in Pasadena, first as an employee of the Carnegie Institution of Washington and later as a Caltech faculty member. Following his retirement from Caltech in 1970, he was active for several years in the consulting firm of Lindvall, Richter, and Associates. His wife, Lillian, died in 1972, and they had no children. Richter served as President of the Seismological Society of America from 1959 to 1960 and was the second recipient of its medal in 1977.
Earthquakes & Volcanoes (USGS)↗
Otto W. Nuttli; a memorial
With the death of Otto W. Nuttli from cancer on February 9, 1988, the Seismological Society of America lsot one of its most respected and beloved members.
Earthquakes & Volcanoes (USGS)↗
Don’t fence us in
When I was a graduate student around 1950 I used to read the entire Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America. it was a pwoerful and inspiring educational experience, with an effect quite different from that of the more usual process of looking up a few articles in the chain of references in a subject of current interest. Reading the entire journal reveals how ideas, techniques, and seismologists appear and evolve. It is likely the best substitute for a firsthand personal experience with the early development of the field. And in spite of, or perhaps because of, the missteps, the wasted effort, and the lack of sophistication that those first volumes reveal, the reader can sense the opportunity and be inspired by the vibrancy of the young subject.
Earthquakes & Volcanoes (USGS)↗
16th century European earthquakes described in some contemporary woodcuts
In the middle of the 15 th century, shortly after Gutenberg’s invention of printing using individual lead type, the first illustrated broadsides (or broadsheets) began appearing in southern Germany. Usually printed on one side of a sheet of paper, they consisted of a woodcut illustration, sometimes colored, either by hand or by stencil, and several columns of text, often in verse. The appeal of the publications to the mass reader was often stimulated by sensationalism in word and picture, somewhat like that purveyed today’s tabloid press. What follows are woodcuts and portions of the text from 16 th to 17 th century broadsheets that describe earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. This article is an excerpt from Deresiewicz, H., 1982, Some 16th century European earthquakes as depicted in contemporary sources: Bulletin Seismological Society of America, vol. 72, p 507-523.
Earthquake Information Bulletin (USGS)↗
Epistemic uncertainty in California-wide synthetic seismicity simulations
The generation of seismicity catalogs on synthetic fault networks holds the promise of providing key inputs into probabilistic seismic-hazard analysis, for example, the coefficient of variation, mean recurrence time as a function of magnitude, the probability of fault-to-fault ruptures, and conditional probabilities for foreshock–mainshock triggering. I employ a seismicity simulator that includes the following ingredients: static stress transfer, viscoelastic relaxation of the lower crust and mantle, and vertical stratification of elastic and viscoelastic material properties. A cascade mechanism combined with a simple Coulomb failure criterion is used to determine the initiation, propagation, and termination of synthetic ruptures. It is employed on a 3D fault network provided by Steve Ward (unpublished data, 2009) for the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) Earthquake Simulators Group. This all-California fault network, initially consisting of 8000 patches, each of ∼12 square kilometers in size, has been rediscretized into Graphic patches, each of ∼1 square kilometer in size, in order to simulate the evolution of California seismicity and crustal stress at magnitude M∼5–8. Resulting synthetic seismicity catalogs spanning 30,000 yr and about one-half million events are evaluated with magnitude-frequency and magnitude-area statistics. For a priori choices of fault-slip rates and mean stress drops, I explore the sensitivity of various constructs on input parameters, particularly mantle viscosity. Slip maps obtained for the southern San Andreas fault show that the ability of segment boundaries to inhibit slip across the boundaries (e.g., to prevent multisegment ruptures) is systematically affected by mantle viscosity.
California↗
Software for inference of dynamic ground strains and rotations and their errors from short baseline array observations of ground motions
In two previous articles we presented a formulation for inferring the strains and rotations of the ground beneath a seismic array having a finite footprint. In this article we derive expressions for the error covariance matrices of the inferred strains and rotations, and we present software for the calculation of ground strains, rotations, and their variances from short baseline array ground-motion data.
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
Comment on "Near-surface location, geometry, and velocities of the Santa Monica fault zone, Los Angeles, California"
No abstract available.
California↗