Comment on “Probabilistic risk analysis for a high-level radioactive waste repository” by B. L. Cohen in risk analysis, volume 23, 909–915
No abstract available.
Risk Analysis↗
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Chronic wasting disease risk analysis workshop: An integrative approach
Risk analysis tools have been successfully used to determine the potential hazard associated with disease introductions and have facilitated management decisions designed to limit the potential for disease introduction. Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD) poses significant challenges for resource managers due to an incomplete understanding of disease etiology and epidemiology and the complexity of management and political jurisdictions. Tools designed specifically to assess the risk of CWD introduction would be of great value to policy makers in areas where CWD has not been detected. To this end, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) created a steering committee representing states, native communities, federal, academic, and non-government entities. This committee formulated a collaborative process for the development of CWD risk assessment tools applicable to both free-ranging and captive populations. The committee recommended a workshop be held on the topic and suggested the format, content, and potential participants. Identified objectives of the workshop included: 1. Identify and discuss the needs of various government and non-government groups involved with assessing, managing, and/or preventing CWD. 2. Identify current gaps in CWD research specifically in relation to information applicable to the risk analysis process. 3. Construct a general, consensual, framework model (Figure 1) that incorporates all factors identified as potentially associated with the presence or absence of CWD (Table 1). The resulting CWD Risk Analysis Workshop was held May 11–13, 2004 in Fort Collins, Colorado. The workshop was attended by 28 individuals representing a cross-section of management, research, and nongovernment organizations. Experts with experience in a variety of risk analysis approaches and representatives from public and private user groups presented in the plenary session. The remainder of the workshop consisted of facilitated breakout sessions and all-group discussions. The framework model (Figure 1) reflects the workshop discussions and subsequent review and comments from workshop participants and steering committee members.
Open-File Report↗
Risk analysis for biological hazards: What we need to know about invasive species
Risk analysis for biological invasions is similar to other types of natural and human hazards. For example, risk analysis for chemical spills requires the evaluation of basic information on where a spill occurs; exposure level and toxicity of the chemical agent; knowledge of the physical processes involved in its rate and direction of spread; and potential impacts to the environment, economy, and human health relative to containment costs. Unlike typical chemical spills, biological invasions can have long lag times from introduction and establishment to successful invasion, they reproduce, and they can spread rapidly by physical and biological processes. We use a risk analysis framework to suggest a general strategy for risk analysis for invasive species and invaded habitats. It requires: (1) problem formation (scoping the problem, defining assessment endpoints); (2) analysis (information on species traits, matching species traits to suitable habitats, estimating exposure, surveys of current distribution and abundance); (3) risk characterization (understanding of data completeness, estimates of the “potential” distribution and abundance; estimates of the potential rate of spread; and probable risks, impacts, and costs); and (4) risk management (containment potential, costs, and opportunity costs; legal mandates and social considerations and information science and technology needs).
Risk Analysis↗
FORTRAN computer program for seismic risk analysis
A program for seismic risk analysis is described which combines generality of application, efficiency and accuracy of operation, and the advantage of small storage requirements. The theoretical basis for the program is first reviewed, and the computational algorithms used to apply this theory are described. The information required for running the program is listed. Published attenuation functions describing the variation with earthquake magnitude and distance of expected values for various ground motion parameters are summarized for reference by the program user. Finally, suggestions for use of the program are made, an example problem is described (along with example problem input and output) and the program is listed.
Open-File Report↗
Application of the CO2-PENS risk analysis tool to the Rock Springs Uplift, Wyoming
We describe preliminary application of the CO 2 -PENS performance and risk analysis tool to a planned geologic CO 2 sequestration demonstration project in the Rock Springs Uplift (RSU), located in south western Wyoming. We use data from the RSU to populate CO 2 -PENS, an evolving system-level modeling tool developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory. This tool has been designed to generate performance and risk assessment calculations for the geologic sequestration of carbon dioxide. Our approach follows Systems Analysis logic and includes estimates of uncertainty in model parameters and Monte-Carlo simulations that lead to probabilistic results. Probabilistic results provide decision makers with a range in the likelihood of different outcomes. Herein we present results from a newly implemented approach in CO 2 -PENS that captures site-specific spatially coherent details such as topography on the reservoir/cap-rock interface, changes in saturation and pressure during injection, and dip on overlying aquifers that may be impacted by leakage upward through wellbores and faults. We present simulations of CO 2 injection under different uncertainty distributions for hypothetical leaking wells and faults. Although results are preliminary and to be used only for demonstration of the approach, future results of the risk analysis will form the basis for a discussion on methods to reduce uncertainty in the risk calculations. Additionally, we present ideas on using the model to help locate monitoring equipment to detect potential leaks. By maintaining site-specific details in the CO 2 -PENS analysis we provide a tool that allows more logical presentations to stakeholders in the region.
Energy Procedia↗
Improving the use of expert opinion in disease risk analysis for conservation translocations
Conservation translocations are subject to considerable uncertainty and risk, of which disease is one of the most recognized. To address disease risks, several protocols for qualitative disease risk analysis (qDRA) exist and are used for responsible conservation translocation planning. Existing qDRA protocols usually rely on expert judgment, but they lack quantitative aggregation of elicited estimates, transparent treatment of uncertainty, and explicit comparison of alternative disease risk management pathways. We added these factors to a qDRA for translocation of a charismatic species that is extinct in the wild, the sihek (Guam kingfisher) ( Todiramphus cinnamominus ). We asked a panel of seven independent experts to quantify their judgment of risks of pathogen release, exposure, and consequences for seven pathogen hazards under three translocation management scenarios. Experts suggested that implementing a full biosecurity protocol would reduce risk for several pathogen hazards but would have variable effectiveness (11–65% depending on the hazard). There was substantial uncertainty associated with individual experts and noise among different experts, showing the potential for error if decisions are based on single-point judgments (i.e., providing judgment of a central tendency without accounting for uncertainty) from one expert or on collaborative consensus of multiple experts, as is current practice.
Conservation Biology↗
An oilspill risk analysis for the Gulf of Mexico outer continental shelf lease area; regional environmental impact statement
An oilspill risk analysis was conducted for the Gulf of Mexico Outer Continental Shelf (OCS)lease area region. Results of the analysis can be used to determine relative risks associated with oil production in different regions to be offered in OCS Lease Sales 72, 74, and 79. The analysis considered the probability of spill occurrences based on historical trends; likely movement of oil slicks based on a climatological model; and locations of major environmental resources which could be vulnerable to spilled oil. The times between spill occurrence and contact with resources were estimated to aid in estimating slick characteristics. Critical assumptions made for this particular analysis were (1) that oil exists in the lease area, and (2) that oil will be, found and produced from tracts sold in sales 72, 74, and 79. On the basis of a most likely resource estimate of 241 million barrels of oil to be produced over an 18-year production life from sales to be held in 1983 (sales 72, 74, 79), it was calculated that approximately one oilspill of 1,000 barrels or larger will occur. The estimated probability that one or more oilspills of 1,000 barrels or larger will occur and contact land after being at sea less than 30 days is 41-percent. For a high resource estimate case of sales to be held in 1983, 717 million barrels are estimated to be produced over an 18-year production life with an 83-percent chance of one or more spills of 1,000 barrels or larger occurring and contacting land within 30 days. These results depend upon the routes and methods chosen to transport oil from OCS platforms to shore. Given a total development scenario in which 5.6 billion barrels of oil are estimated to be present and produced, it was calculated that 18 oilspills of 1,000 barrels or larger will occur over the 40-year production life of the proposed lease area. The estimated probability that one or more oilspills of 1,000 barrels or larger will occur and contact land after being at sea less than 30 days is greater than 99.5 percent for this scenario. These probabilities also reflect the assumptions that oilspills remain intact for up to 30 days, do not weather, and are not cleaned up. It should be noted that the expected number of spills from the total development scenario is less than one-half that of the expected number from existing tanker transportation of crude oil imports in the Gulf area.
Open-File Report↗
An oilspill risk analysis for the South Atlantic Outer Continental Shelf lease area
An oilspill risk analysis was conducted to determine relative environmental hazards of developing oil in different regions of the South Atlantic Outer Continental Shelf lease area. The study analyzed probability of spill occurrence, likely path of pollutants from spills, and locations in space and time of recreational and biological resources likely to be vulnerable, paying particular attention to "worst-case" conditions. These results are combined to yield estimates of the overall oilspill risk associated with development of the lease area.
South Atlantic outer continental shelf↗
An oilspill risk analysis for the Mid-Atlantic Outer Continental Shelf lease area
An oilspill risk analysis was conducted to determine relative environmental impacts of developing oil in different regions of the Mid-Atlantic Outer Continental Shelf lease area. The study analyzed probability of spills, likely path of pollutants from spills, and locations in space and time of recreational and biological resources likely to be vulnerable. These results are combined to yield estimates of the overall oilspill risk associated with development of the lease area. (Woodard-USGS)
Open-File Report↗
An oilspill risk analysis for the southern California (proposed sale 48) Outer Continental Shelf lease area
An oilspill risk analysis was conducted to determine the relative environmental hazards of developing oil in different regions of the Southern California Outer Continental Shelf lease area. The study analyzed the probability of spill occurrences, likely paths of the spilled oil, and locations in space and time of such objects as recreational and biological resources likely to be vulnerable. These results combined yield estimates of the overall oilspill risks associated with development of the proposed lease area. The analysis implicitly includes estimates of weathering rates and slick dispersion and an indication of the p ossible mitigating effects of cleanups. The leasing of the tracts p roposed for Sale 48 will increase the expected number of spills by about 50-55% over the number expected from the existing Federal leases. The probability that an object, such as land, will be contacted by a spill is increased by less than 17 percentage points; however, this increase varies greatly for the different objects.
California↗
An oilspill risk analysis for the Kodiak Island (proposed sale 46) Outer Continental Shelf lease area
An oilspill risk analysis was conducted to determine the relative environmental hazards of developing oil in different regions of the Kodiak Island Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) lease area. The study analyzed the probability of spill occurrences, likely paths of oil slicks, and locations of resources vulnerable to spilled oil. The analysis included estimates of the time between spill occurrence and contact with resources. The combined results yielded estimates of the overall risks associated with development of the proposed lease area. Assuming that oil will be found in all parts of the lease area, and depending upon the routes chosen to transport oil from OCS platforms to the shore, the leasing of the tracts proposed for OCS Sale 46 will result in an expected number of 1.1 spills. The estimated probability that land will be contacted by one or more oilspills which have been at sea less than 30 days is 0.43.
Alaska↗
An oilspill risk analysis for the western Gulf of Alaska (Kodiak Island) Outer Continental Shelf lease area
An oilspill risk analysis was conducted to determine relative environmental hazards of developing oil in different regions of the Western Gulf of Alaska Outer Continental Shelf lease area. The study analyzed probability of spill occurrence, likely path of pollutants from spills, and locations in space and time of recreational and biological resources likely to be vulnerable. These results are combined to yield estimates of the overall oilspill risk associated with development of the lease area. While the analysis includes estimates of weathering rates and slick dispersion, the methodology has not yet been developed to analyze the mitigating effects of cleanups which if taken into account would reduce the impact probabilities.
Alaska↗
An oilspill risk analysis of the Mid-Atlantic (Proposed Sale 49) outer continental shelf lease area
An oilspill risk analysis was conducted to determine the relative environmental hazards of developing oil in different regions of the mid-Atlantic Outer Continental Shelf lease area. The study analyzed the probability of spill occurrence, likely paths of the spilled oil, and locations in space and time of recreational and biological resources that are likely to be vulnerable. These results are combined to yield estimates of the overall oilspill risk associated with development of the proposed lease area. The analysis implicitly includes estimates of weathering rates and slick dispersion and an indication of the possible mitigating effects of cleanups. Assuming that economically recoverable amounts of petroleum are found in the area, the leasing of the tracts proposed for sale 49 will increase the expected number of spills by about 20-25 percent over the number expected from the existing (sale 40) leases. The probability that an object such as land will be contacted by a spill is increased by at most five percentage points. (Woodard-USGS)
Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
An oilspill risk analysis for the eastern Gulf of Mexico (proposed sale 65) Outer Continental Shelf lease area
An oilspill risk analysis was conducted to determine the relative environmental hazards of developing oil in different regions of the Eastern Gulf of Mexico Outer Continental Shelf lease area. The study analyzed the probability of spill occurrence, likely paths of the spills, and locations in space and time of such objects as recreational and biological resources likely to be vulnerable. These results combined to yield estimates of the overall oilspill risk associated with development of the proposed lease area. This risk is compared to the existing oilspill risk from existing leases in the area. The analysis implicitly includes estimates of weathering rates and slick dispersion and an indication of the possible mitigating effects of cleanups.
Gulf Of Mexcio↗
An oilspill risk analysis for the Northern Gulf of Alaska (proposed sale 55), Outer Continental Shelf lease area
An oilspill risk analysis was conducted to determine the relative environmental hazards of developing oil in different regions of the Northern Gulf of Alaska Outer Continental Shelf lease area. The study analyzed the probability of spill occurrences, likely paths of the spilled oil, and locations of resources vulnerable to spilled oil. The combined results yielded estimates of the overall oilspill risks associated with development of the proposed lease area. The analysis implicitly includes estimates of weathering rates and slick dispersion and an indication of the possibility of mitigating effects by cleanup efforts. The leasing of the tracts proposed for Sale 55 will result in an expected number of 2.8 spills. The estimated probability that land will be contacted by one or more spills within 30 days is 0.84; however, this probability varies greatly for the different targets and different contact times.
Alaska↗
An oilspill risk analysis for the North Atlantic (proposed sale 52) Outer Continental Shelf lease area
An oilspill risk analysis was conducted to determine the relative environmental hazards of developing oil in different regions of the North Atlantic (Proposed Sale 52) Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) lease area. The probability of spill occurrences, likely movement of oil slicks, and locations of resources vulnerable to spilled oil were analyzed. The times between spill occurrence and contact with various resources were also estimated. The combined results yielded estimates of the overall risks associated with development of the proposed lease area. Assuming that oil exists in the lease area (a 40-percent chance) and depending upon the routes chosen to transport oil from OCS platforms to the shore, the leasing of the tracts proposed for OCS Sale 52 will result in an expected 10.2 oilspills (of 1,000 barrels or larger). The estimated probability that land will be contacted by one or more oilspills (of 1,000 barrels or larger) that have been at sea less than 30 days is 0.71. If existing transportation of oil in the area is considered, this probability increases greatly, to more than 0.99.
North Atlantic Outer Continental Shelf↗
An oilspill risk analysis for the South Atlantic (proposed sale 78) outer continental shelf lease area
An oilspill risk analysis was conducted for the South Atlantic (proposed sale 78) Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) lease area. The analysis considered the probability of spill occurrences based on historical trends; likely movement of oil slicks based on a climatological model ; and locations of environmental resources which could be vulnerable to spilled oil. The times between spill occurrence and contact with resources were estimated to aid analysts in estimating slick characteristics. Critical assumptions made for this particular analysis were: (1) that oil exists in the lease area, (2) that either 0.228 billion (mean case) or 1.14 billion (high case) barrels of oil will be found and produced from tracts sold in sale 78, and (3) that all the oil will be found either in the northern or the southern portion of the lease area. On the basis of these resource estimates, it was estimated that 1 to 5 oilspills of 1,000 barrels or greater will occur over the 25 to 30-year production life of the proposed sale 78 tracts. The results also depend upon the routes and methods chosen to transport oil from OCS platforms to shore. Given the above assumptions, the estimated probability that one or more oilspills of 1,000 barrels or larger will occur and contact land after being at sea less than 30 days is less than 15 percent for all cases considered; for spills 10,000 barrels or larger, the probability is less than 10 percent. These probabilities also reflect the following assumptions: oilspills remain intact for up to 30 days, do not weather, and are not cleaned up. It is noteworthy that over 80 percent of the risk of oilspill occurrence from proposed sale 78 is due to transportation rather than production of oil. In addition, the risks of oilspill occurrence from proposed sale 78 (mean resource estimate) are less than one-tenth of the risks of existing tanker transportation of crude oil imports and refined products in the South Atlantic area.
Open-File Report↗
An oilspill risk analysis for the Central and Northern California (proposed Sale 53) Outer Continental Shelf lease area
An oilspill risk analysis was conducted to determine the relative environmental hazards of developing oil in different regions of the Central and Northern California Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) lease area. The study analyzed the probability of spill occurrences, likely paths of oil slicks, and locations of resources vulnerable to spilled oil. The analysis included estimates of the time between spill occurrence and contact with resources. The combined results yielded estimates of the overall risks associated with development of the proposed lease area. Assuming that oil will be found in all parts of the lease area, and depending upon the routes chosen to transport oil from OCS platforms to the shore, the leasing of the tracts proposed for OCS Sale 53 will, depending upon how oil is transported to shore, result in an expected 2.0 to 3.1 spills. The estimated probability that land will be contacted by one or more oilspills which have been at sea less than 30 days is between 0.49 and 0.86.
California↗