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At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Spatial scaling patterns and functional redundancies in a changing boreal lake landscape

Global transformations extend beyond local habitats; therefore, larger-scale approaches are needed to assess community-level responses and resilience to unfolding environmental changes. Using longterm data (1996–2011), we evaluated spatial patterns and functional redundancies in the littoral invertebrate communities of 85 Swedish lakes, with the objective of assessing their potential resilience to environmental change at regional scales (that is, spatial resilience). Multivariate spatial modeling was used to differentiate groups of invertebrate species exhibiting spatial patterns in composition and abundance (that is, deterministic species) from those lacking spatial patterns (that is, stochastic species). We then determined the functional feeding attributes of the deterministic and stochastic invertebrate species, to infer resilience. Between one and three distinct spatial patterns in invertebrate composition and abundance were identified in approximately one-third of the species; the remainder were stochastic. We observed substantial differences in metrics between deterministic and stochastic species. Functional richness and diversity decreased over time in the deterministic group, suggesting a loss of resilience in regional invertebrate communities. However, taxon richness and redundancy increased monotonically in the stochastic group, indicating the capacity of regional invertebrate communities to adapt to change. Our results suggest that a refined picture of spatial resilience emerges if patterns of both the deterministic and stochastic species are accounted for. Spatially extensive monitoring may help increase our mechanistic understanding of community-level responses and resilience to regional environmental change, insights that are critical for developing management and conservation agendas in this current period of rapid environmental transformation.

Ecosystems↗

Understanding the spatial heterogeneity of global environmental change in mountain regions

One of the challenges for global environmental change research is to understand how future climate changes will be expressed in mountain regions. The physiographic complexity of mountains creates environments that can be highly variable over relatively short distances. This spatial heterogeneity reflects a hierarchy of environmental controls. At regional scales, insolation and atmospheric circulation features determine the dominant regional climate patterns that affect mountain regions. At finer spatial scales, substrate, aspect, elevation, and a number of other environmental factors influence ecosystem dynamics. Vegetation, for example, is affected by all levels of this hierarchy, from regional-scale climate regimes down to site-specific features, such as substrate type (cf. Körner, this volume).

western United States↗

Biological and geochemical data along Indian Point, Vermilion Bay, Louisiana

Scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center collected shallow sediment cores and surface samples from a coastal salt marsh environment next to Vermilion Bay in southwest Louisiana in January 2013. The sampling was part of a larger USGS study to gather data for assessing environmental changes over the past 150 years. The objective of the study was to expand upon the historical context of sea level and storms affecting coastal systems and how these systems might change under persistent or varying conditions. The data from this report add to a regional environmental change database that aids with the continuing effort to understand the evolution of coastal systems. This report serves as an archive for sedimentological, radiochemical, and microbiological data derived from the sediment cores. Data are available for January 2013. Downloadable data are available as Excel spreadsheets and as JPEG files. Additional files include ArcGIS shapefiles of the sampling sites, detailed results of sediment analyses, and formal Federal Geographic Data Committee metadata. Acknowledgments The authors thank Nancy DeWitt, B.J. Reynolds, Christopher Reich (USGS, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center), for help with sample collection and processing; Michael Ball, Sarai Piazza, and Gregory Steyer (USGS, Coastal Restoration Assessment Branch) for assistance accessing CRMS Site 541; and Darrell Anders and Phillip Turnipseed (USGS National Wetlands Research Center) for technical support while in the field. We would also like to thank Caitlyn Reynolds and Nicholas Zaremba for their pre-release commentary and peer review. Information Statement This publication was prepared by an agency of the United States Government. Although these data were processed successfully on a computer system at the U.S. Geological Survey, no warranty expressed or implied is made regarding the display or utility of the data on any other system, or for general or scientific purposes, nor shall the act of distribution imply any such warranty. The U.S. Geological Survey shall not be held liable for improper or incorrect use of the data described and (or) contained herein. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency

Louisiana↗

Holocene environmental changes inferred from biological and sedimentological proxies in a high elevation Great Basin lake in the northern Ruby Mountains, Nevada, USA

Multi-proxy analyses were conducted on a sediment core from Favre Lake, a high elevation cirque lake in the northern Ruby Mountains, Nevada, and provide a ca. 7600 year record of local and regional environmental change. Data indicate that lake levels were lower from 7600-5750 cal yr BP, when local climate was warmer and/or drier than today. Effective moisture increased after 5750 cal yr BP and remained relatively wet, and possibly cooler, until ca. 3750 cal yr BP. Results indicate generally dry conditions but also enhanced climatic variability from 3750-1750 cal yr BP, after which effective moisture increased. The timing of major changes in the Favre Lake proxy data are roughly coeval and in phase with those recorded in several paleoclimate studies across the Great Basin, suggesting regional climatic controls on local conditions and similar responses at high and low altitudes.

Nevada↗

Non-freezing cold event stresses can cause significant damage to mangrove seedlings: Assessing the role of warming and nitrogen enrichment in a mesocosm study

Mangroves are expanding poleward along coastlines globally as a response to rising temperatures and reduced incidence of freezing under climate change. Yet, knowledge of mangrove responses to infrequent cold events in the context of future global and regional environmental changes is limited. We initiated a mesocosm experiment in which the seedlings of two mangrove species were grown either at ambient temperature or under warming with and without nitrogen (N) loading. During a short winter period, an unusually severe cold event occurred with the lowest temperature of 2°C. We assessed the possible response of these two mangrove species to the cold stress. We found that the cold event caused various degrees of damage to the seedlings of both mangrove species, with the warming treatment seemingly protecting leaves and branches from the cold damage. However, warming did not buffer mangroves to mortality from those low temperatures in either species. The cold event resulted in a significant decrease in seedling growth rates and net ecosystem CO2 uptake in the post-cold period relative to the pre-cold period, though the cold event did not alter the effects of warming on these parameters of both mangrove species. The cold event differentially altered physiological responses of the two species growing under N loading, with A. marina growing in higher N concentrations having a reduced growth response after the cold event, whereas B. gymnorrhiza displayed no change in post-cold period versus pre-cold period growth. Our findings suggest the pivotal role of cold events, versus freeze events, in regulating mangrove survival and growth even under future warming scenarios. Two mangrove species exhibited differential survival and growth responses to the cold event at different N concentrations, which has implications for how we can restore and conserve mangroves among the world's eutrophied sub-tropical estuaries and with future warming.

Environmental Research↗

Late Holocene human-environment interactions on the central California coast, USA, inferred from Morro Bay salt marsh sediments

Coastal salt marshes and estuaries provide valuable ecosystem services, yet are susceptible to alteration from human activities. Records of past environmental change in these ecosystems can elucidate relationships between human activities, such as land-use practices, and physical and ecological processes, such as sediment accretion and vegetation changes. To reconstruct the environmental history of one such site, we present inferences based on analysis of sediment cores (including magnetic susceptibility, loss-on-ignition, and pollen) from the Morro Bay salt marsh, located in California’s central coast in the USA. Chronologic control for the sediments was established using radiocarbon dates, a spike in lead (Pb) sourced from gasoline combustion exhaust, and the first identified occurrences of the non-native taxa Erodium cf. cicutarium (filaree) and Eucalyptus . We demonstrate that the Morro Bay watershed was significantly altered following Spanish settlement in the region. Environmental changes associated with livestock grazing and agriculture become evident in the data starting after 1772 CE, when the Mission San Luis Obispo de Tolosa was established nearby. The most prominent changes observed are an increase in the accumulation rate of terrigenous sediment, organic matter, and carbonates, as well as a reduction in arboreal taxa concomitant with increased abundances of shrubs, herbs, and grasses. The expansion of Salicornia (pickleweed) in the 19th century suggests the salt marsh expanded at this time due to increased sediment accumulation and a resulting increase in local elevation. The timing and character of changes recorded in the Morro Bay salt marsh sediments are similar to those documented across California in estuaries, marshes, lakes, and meadows, demonstrating the magnitude of the impacts of European settlement and associated land-use practices in this region.

Anthropocene↗

Fossil diatoms and neogene paleolimnology

Diatoms have played an important role in the development of Neogene continental biostratigraphy and paleolimnology since the mid-19th Century. The history of progress in Quaternary diatom biostratigraphy has developed as a result of improved coring techniques that enable sampling sediments beneath existing lakes coupled with improved chronological control (including radiometric dating and varve enumeration), improved statistical treatment of fossil diatom assemblages (from qualitative description to influx calculations of diatom numbers or volumes), and improved ecological information about analogous living diatom associations. The last factor, diatom ecology, is the most critical in many ways, but progresses slowly. Fortunately, statistical comparison of modern diatom assemblages and insightful studies of the nutrient requirements of some common freshwater species are enabling diatom paleolimnologists to make more detailed interpretations of the Quaternary record than had been possible earlier, and progress in the field of diatom biology and ecology will continue to refine paleolimnological studies. The greater age and geologic setting of Tertiary diatomaceous deposits has prompted their study in the contexts of geologic history, biochronology and evolution. The distribution of diatoms of marine affinities in continental deposits has given geologists insights about tectonism and sea-level change, and the distribution of distinctive (extinct?) diatoms has found utilization both in making stratigraphic correlations between outcrops of diatomaceous deposits and in various types of biochronological studies that involve dating deposits in different areas. A continental diatom biochronologic scheme will rely upon evolution, such as the appearance of new genera within a family, in combination with regional environmental changes that are responsible for the wide distribution of distinctive diatom species. The increased use of the scanning electron microscope for the detailed descriptions of fossil diatoms will provide the basis for making more accurate correlations and identifications, and the micromorphological detail for speculations about evolutionary relationships.

Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology↗

Extracting temporal and spatial information from remotely sensed data for mapping wildlife habitat: Tucson

The research accomplished in this dissertation used both mathematical and statistical techniques to extract and evaluate measures of landscape temporal dynamics and spatial structure from remotely sensed data for the purpose of mapping wildlife habitat . By coupling the landscape measures gleaned from the remotely sensed data with various sets of animal sightings and population data , effective models of habitat preference were created. Measures of temporal dynamics of vegetation greenness as measured by National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration’s Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) satellite were used to effectively characterize and map season specific habitat of the Sonoran pronghorn antelope, as well as produce preliminary models of potential yellow-billed cuckoo habitat in Arizona. Various measures that capture different aspects of the temporal dynamics of the landscape were derived from AVHRR Normalized Difference Vegetation Index composite data using three main classes of calculations: basic statistics, standardized principal components analysis, and Fourier analysis. Pronghorn habitat models based on the AVHRR measures correspond visually and statistically to GIS-based models produced using data that represent detailed knowledge of ground-condition. Measures of temporal dynamics also revealed statistically significant correlations with annual estimates of elk population in selected Arizona Game Management Units, suggesting elk respond to regional environmental changes that can be measured using satellite data . Such relationships, once verified and established, can be used to help indirectly monitor the population. Measures of landscape spatial structure derived from IKONOS high spatial resolution (1-m) satellite data using geostatistics effectively map details of Sonoran pronghorn antelope habitat . Local estimates of the nugget, sill, and range variogram parameters calculated within 25 x 25-meter image windows describe the spatial autocorrelation of the image, permitting classification of all pixels into coherent units whose signature graphs exhibit a classic variogram shape. The variogram parameters captured in these signatures have been shown in previous studies to discriminate between different species-specific vegetation associations. The synoptic view of the landscape provided by satellite data can inform resource management efforts. The ability to characterize the spatial structure and temporal dynamics of habitat using repeatable remote sensing data allows closer monitoring of the relationship between a species and its landscape.

Arizona↗

Physiological and gene transcription assays to assess responses of mussels to environmental changes

Coastal regions worldwide face increasing management concerns due to natural and anthropogenic forces that have the potential to significantly degrade nearshore marine resources. The goal of our study was to develop and test a monitoring strategy for nearshore marine ecosystems in remote areas that are not readily accessible for sampling. Mussel species have been used extensively to assess ecosystem vulnerability to multiple, interacting stressors. We sampled bay mussels ( Mytilus trossulus ) in 2015 and 2016 from six intertidal sites in Lake Clark and Katmai National Parks and Preserves, in south-central Alaska. Reference ranges for physiological assays and gene transcription were determined for use in future assessment efforts. Both techniques identified differences among sites, suggesting influences of both large-scale and local environmental factors and underscoring the value of this combined approach to ecosystem health monitoring.

Alaska↗

Land changes and their driving forces in the Southeastern United States

The ecoregions of the Middle Atlantic Coastal Plain, Southeastern Plains, Piedmont, and Blue Ridge provide a continuum of land cover from the Atlantic Ocean to the highest mountains in the East. From 1973 to 2000, each ecoregion had a unique mosaic of land covers and land cover changes. The forests of the Blue Ridge Mountains provided amenity lands. The Piedmont forested area declined, while the developed area increased. The Southeastern Plains became a commercial forest region, and most agricultural lands that changed became forested. Forests in the Middle Atlantic Coastal Plain declined, and development related to recreation and retirement increased. The most important drivers of land conversion were associated with commercial forestry, competition between forest and agriculture, and economic and population growth. These and other drivers were modified by each ecoregion’s unique suitability and land use legacies with the result that the same drivers often produced different land changes in different ecoregions.

Regional Environmental Change↗

Temporal changes in spatial patterns of submersed macrophytes in two impounded reaches of the Upper Mississippi River, USA, 1998-2009

We examined temporal changes in spatial patterns of submersed aquatic macrophytes during a recent three-fold increase in macrophyte abundance and in response to the cumulative effects of management actions (island construction and water level management) and changes in regional environmental conditions (turbidity) in two navigation pools of the Upper Mississippi River, Pool 8 (managed) and Pool 13 (unmanaged). We used cross-correlograms to quantify changes in the degree and range of spatial correlation between submersed macrophytes and depth across the impounded portions of the two pools from 1998-2009. Along with increases in abundance, we observed gradual expansion of submersed macrophytes into deeper water in both pools. However, we detected no temporal change in spatial patterns in Pool 13, where the range of spatial correlation was ∼ 1500-2500 m in length in the downriver direction and ∼ 500-1000 m in length in the crossriver direction. We initially detected similar ranges of spatial correlation in Pool 8, but over time the range of correlation in the cross river direction increased from ∼ 500 m in 1998 to ∼ 2000 m by 2009. Thus, the expansion of submersed macrophytes into deeper water areas in Pool 8 appears to have occurred in the cross-river direction and led to increases in patch size and a more symmetrical patch configuration. Hence, very similar temporal changes in submersed macrophyte abundance corresponded with different diffusion dynamics and spatial patterns in the two pools. We hypothesize that management actions altered spatial patterns of depth, water flow and/or wind fetch and led to the differences in spatial patterns reported here.

Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin↗

Perception, experience, and indigenous knowledge of climate change and variability: the case of Accra, a sub-Saharan African city

Several recent international assessments have concluded that climate change has the potential to reverse the modest economic gains achieved in many developing countries over the past decade. The phenomenon of climate change threatens to worsen poverty or burden populations with additional hardships, especially in poor societies with weak infrastructure and economic well-being. The importance of the perceptions, experiences, and knowledge of indigenous peoples has gained prominence in discussions of climate change and adaptation in developing countries and among international development organizations. Efforts to evaluate the role of indigenous knowledge in adaptation planning, however, have largely focused on rural people and their agricultural livelihoods. This paper presents the results of a study that examines perceptions, experiences, and indigenous knowledge relating to climate change and variability in three communities of metropolitan Accra, which is the capital of Ghana. The study design is based on a three-part conceptual framework and interview process involving risk mapping, mental models, and individual stressor cognition. Most of the residents interviewed in the three communities of urban Accra attributed climate change to the combination of deforestation and the burning of firewood and rubbish. None of the residents associated climate change with fossil fuel emissions from developed countries. Numerous potential adaptation strategies were suggested by the residents, many of which have been used effectively during past drought and flood events. Results suggest that ethnic residential clustering as well as strong community bonds in metropolitan Accra have allowed various groups and long-settled communities to engage in the sharing and transmission of knowledge of weather patterns and trends. Understanding and building upon indigenous knowledge may enhance the design, acceptance, and implementation of climate change adaptation strategies in Accra and urban regions of other developing nations.

Accra↗

Late twentieth century land-cover change in the basin and range ecoregions of the United States

As part of the US Geological Survey's Land Cover Trends project, land-use/land-cover change estimates between 1973 and 2000 are presented for the basin and range ecoregions, including Northern, Central, Mojave, and Sonoran. Landsat data were employed to estimate and characterize land-cover change from 1973, 1980, 1986, 1992, and 2000 using a post-classification comparison. Overall, spatial change was 2.5% (17,830 km 2 ). Change increased steadily between 1973 and 1986 but decreased slightly between 1992 and 2000. The grassland/shrubland class, frequently used for livestock grazing, constituted the majority of the study area and had a net decrease from an estimated 83.8% (587,024 km 2 ) in 1973 to 82.6% (578,242 km 2 ) in 2000. The most common land-use/land-cover conversions across the basin and range ecoregions were indicative of the changes associated with natural, nonmechanical disturbances (i.e., fire), and grassland/shrubland loss to development, agriculture, and mining. This comprehensive look at contemporary land-use/land-cover change provides critical insight into how the deserts of the United States have changed and can be used to inform adaptive management practices of public lands.

Regional Environmental Change↗

Implications of multi-scale sea level and climate variability for coastal resources

While secular changes in regional sea levels and their implications for coastal zone management have been studied extensively, less attention is being paid to natural fluctuations in sea levels, whose interaction with a higher mean level could have significant impacts on low-lying areas, such as wetlands. Here, the long record of sea level at Key West, FL is studied in terms of both the secular trend and the multi-scale sea level variations. This analysis is then used to explore implications for the Everglades National Park (ENP), which is recognized internationally for its ecological significance, and is the site of the largest wetland restoration project in the world. Very shallow topographic gradients (3–6 cm per km) make the region susceptible to small changes in sea level. Observations of surface water levels from a monitoring network within ENP exhibit both the long-term trends and the interannual-to-(multi)decadal variability that are observed in the Key West record. Water levels recorded at four long-term monitoring stations within ENP exhibit increasing trends approximately equal to or larger than the long-term trend at Key West. Time- and frequency-domain analyses highlight the potential influence of climate mechanisms, such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), on Key West sea levels and marsh water levels, and the potential modulation of their influence by the background state of the North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures. In particular, the Key West sea levels are found to be positively correlated with the NAO index, while the two series exhibit high spectral power during the transition to a cold Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The correlation between the Key West sea levels and the NINO3 Index reverses its sign in coincidence with a reversal of the AMO phase. Water levels in ENP are also influenced by precipitation and freshwater releases from the northern boundary of the Park. The analysis of both climate variability and climate change in such wetlands is needed to inform management practices in coastal wetland zones around the world.

Regional Environmental Change↗

Potential future land use threats to California's protected areas

Increasing pressures from land use coupled with future changes in climate will present unique challenges for California’s protected areas. We assessed the potential for future land use conversion on land surrounding existing protected areas in California’s twelve ecoregions, utilizing annual, spatially explicit (250 m) scenario projections of land use for 2006–2100 based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios to examine future changes in development, agriculture, and logging. We calculated a conversion threat index (CTI) for each unprotected pixel, combining land use conversion potential with proximity to protected area boundaries, in order to identify ecoregions and protected areas at greatest potential risk of proximal land conversion. Our results indicate that California’s Coast Range ecoregion had the highest CTI with competition for extractive logging placing the greatest demand on land in close proximity to existing protected areas. For more permanent land use conversions into agriculture and developed uses, our CTI results indicate that protected areas in the Central California Valley and Oak Woodlands are most vulnerable. Overall, the Eastern Cascades, Central California Valley, and Oak Woodlands ecoregions had the lowest areal percent of protected lands and highest conversion threat values. With limited resources and time, rapid, landscape-level analysis of potential land use threats can help quickly identify areas with higher conversion probability of future land use and potential changes to both habitat and potential ecosystem reserves. Given the broad range of future uncertainties, LULC projections are a useful tool allowing land managers to visualize alternative landscape futures, improve planning, and optimize management practices.

California↗

Plant community predictions support the potential for big sagebrush range expansion adjacent to the leading edge

Big sagebrush ecosystems are widespread across drylands of western North America and provide numerous services, but the abundance of these ecosystems has declined substantially and the future of these ecosystems is uncertain. As a result, characterizing potential areas for expansion of these ecosystems is important. Species distribution models of the big sagebrush suggest areas of increasing climatic habitat suitability at northern latitudes under climate change scenarios. This implies the formation of a leading edge during a future big sagebrush range expansion. Such an expansion requires that current nearby range margin big sagebrush populations are stable and serve as future seed sources. Our goal was to quantify the impacts of future climate conditions on the plant community composition and biomass in the in range margin big sagebrush plant communities adjacent to the leading edge. We did this using an individual-based soil water and plant growth simulation model, STEPWAT2. We assessed community dynamics throughout the twenty-first century using 13 climate models under two representative concentration pathways to capture the variability among projections. Our results show minimal overall change in plant community composition and little change in biomass, suggesting that range margin big sagebrush plant communities adjacent to the leading edge will remain stable to serve as essential dispersal sources for future range expansion, assuming no other relevant changes such as changes in disturbance regimes. These assessments of plant community responses to shifts in climate and characterization of variability in future projections will help inform conservation planning and management of the big sagebrush ecosystem.

Regional Environmental Change↗

Witnessing history: Comparison of a century of sedimentary and written records in a California protected area

We use a combination of proxy records from a high-resolution analysis of sediments from Searsville Lake and adjacent Upper Lake Marsh and historical records to document over one and a half centuries of vegetation and socio-ecological change—relating to logging, agricultural land use change, dam construction, chemical applications, recreation, and other drivers—on the San Francisco Peninsula. A relatively open vegetation with minimal oak ( Quercus ) and coast redwood ( Sequoia sempervirens ) in the late 1850s reflects widespread logging and grazing during the nineteenth century. Forest and woodland expansion occurred in the early twentieth century, with forests composed of coast redwood and oak, among other taxa, as both logging and grazing declined. Invasive species include those associated with pasturage ( Rume x , Plantago ), landscape disturbance ( Urtica , Amaranthaceae), planting for wood production and wind barriers ( Eucalyptus ), and agriculture. Agricultural species, including wheat, rye, and corn, were more common in the early twentieth century than subsequently. Wetland and aquatic pollen and fungal spores document a complex hydrological history, often associated with fluctuating water levels, application of algaecides, raising of Searsville Dam, and construction of a levee. By pairing the paleoecological and historical records of both lakes, we have been able to reconstruct the previously undocumented impacts of socio-ecological influences on this drainage, all of which overprinted known climate changes. Recognizing the ecological manifestations of these impacts puts into perspective the extent to which people have interacted with and transformed the environment in the transition into the Anthropocene.

California↗

Impacts of climate change on land-use and wetland productivity in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America

Wetland productivity in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North America is closely linked to climate. A warmer and drier climate, as predicted, will negatively affect the productivity of PPR wetlands and the services they provide. The effect of climate change on wetland productivity, however, will not only depend on natural processes (e.g., evapotranspiration), but also on human responses. Agricultural land use, the predominant use in the PPR, is unlikely to remain static as climate change affects crop yields and prices. Land use in uplands surrounding wetlands will further affect wetland water budgets and hence wetland productivity. The net impact of climate change on wetland productivity will therefore depend on both the direct effects of climate change on wetlands and the indirect effects on upland land use. We examine the effect of climate change and land-use response on semipermanent wetland productivity by combining an economic model of agricultural land-use change with an ecological model of wetland dynamics. Our results suggest that the climate change scenarios evaluated are likely to have profound effects on land use in the North and South Dakota PPR, with wheat displacing other crops and pasture. The combined pressure of land-use and climate change significantly reduces wetland productivity. In a climate scenario with a +4 °C increase in temperature, our model predicts that almost the entire region may lack the wetland productivity necessary to support wetland-dependent species.

North Dakota, South Dakota↗