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At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2015

Non-native and native organisms moving into high elevation and high latitude ecosystems in an era of climate change: new challenges for ecology and conservation

Cold environments at high elevation and high latitude are often viewed as resistant to biological invasions. However, climate warming, land use change and associated increased connectivity all increase the risk of biological invasions in these environments. Here we present a summary of the key discussions of the workshop ‘Biosecurity in Mountains and Northern Ecosystems: Current Status and Future Challenges’ (Flen, Sweden, 1–3 June 2015). The aims of the workshop were to (1) increase awareness about the growing importance of species expansion—both non-native and native—at high elevation and high latitude with climate change, (2) review existing knowledge about invasion risks in these areas, and (3) encourage more research on how species will move and interact in cold environments, the consequences for biodiversity, and animal and human health and wellbeing. The diversity of potential and actual invaders reported at the workshop and the likely interactions between them create major challenges for managers of cold environments. However, since these cold environments have experienced fewer invasions when compared with many warmer, more populated environments, prevention has a real chance of success, especially if it is coupled with prioritisation schemes for targeting invaders likely to have greatest impact. Communication and co-operation between cold environment regions will facilitate rapid response, and maximise the use of limited research and management resources.

Biological Invasions↗
USGS2002

Anesthesia and liver biopsy techniques for pigeon guillemots ( Cepphus columba ) suspected of exposure to crude oil in marine environments

This paper reports on the anesthesia and liver biopsy techniques used in adult and nestling pigeon guillemots ( Cepphus columba ) to test for continued exposure to residual crude oil in the marine environment. Populations of pigeon guillemots have declined significantly in Prince William Sound, Alaska, USA, possibly because of residual effects of crude oil in the environment after the Exxon Valdez oil spill in March 1989. Measurement of hepatic cytochrome P450 1A (CYP1A) is currently the best way to assess crude oil exposure from food sources; however, lethal sampling to obtain adequate liver tissue was not desirable in this declining population of birds. As part of a larger study to identify factors limiting the recovery of pigeon guillemots and other seabird populations, we surgically collected liver samples from adult and nestling guillemots to provide samples for measurement of hepatic CYP1A concentrations. Results from the larger study were reported elsewhere. Liver samples were taken from 26 nestling (1998) and 24 adult (1999) guillemots from a previously oiled site (Naked Island; 12 chicks, 13 adults) and from a nonoiled site (Jackpot Island/Icy Bay; 14 chicks, 11 adults). The birds were anesthetized with isoflurane. No surgical complications occurred with any of the birds and all adult and nestling birds survived after surgery to the point of release or return to the nest. Thirteen out of 14 chicks from the Jackpot Island/Icy Bay and 8 out of 12 chicks from Naked Island fledged. Four chicks at Naked Island were depredated before fledging. All adults abandoned their nests after surgery, so the study sites were revisited the following summer (2000) in an attempt to assess overwinter survival of the adults. All but 1 adult biopsied bird at the nonoiled site (Icy Bay) was found renesting, whereas only 2 birds at the previously oiled site (Naked Island) were similarly observed. The percent of 1999 breeders at Naked Island that returned to their nest sites to breed again in 2000 was low at nests of biopsied birds and nonbiopsied birds alike, suggesting that factors other than the surgical procedure were responsible for the low return rate among this group. These survival results provide strong support for using experienced veterinarians for nonlethal invasive sample collection from birds to document exposure to crude oil in the marine environment.

Alaska↗
USGS2015

Local climate and cultivation, but not ploidy, predict functional trait variation in Bouteloua gracilis (Poaceae)

Efforts to improve the diversity of seed 18 resources for important restoration species has become a high priority for land managers in many parts of the world. Relationships between functional trait values and the environment from which seed sources are collected can provide important insights into patterns of local adaptation and guidelines for seed transfer. However, little is known about which functional traits exhibit genetic differentiation across populations of restoration species and thus may contribute to local adaptation. Here, we report the results of a common garden experiment aimed at assessing genetic (including ploidy level) and environmental regulation of several functional traits among populations of Bouteloua gracilis, a dominant C4 grass and the most highly utilized restoration species across much of the Colorado Plateau. We found that leaf size and specific leaf area (SLA) varied significantly among populations, and were strongly correlated with the source population environment from which seeds were collected. However, variation in ploidy level had no significant effect on functional traits. Leaves of plants grown from commercial seed releases were significantly larger and had lower SLA than those from natural populations, a result that is concordant with the overall relation between climate and these two functional traits. We suggest that the patterns of functional trait variation shown here may extend to other grass species in the western USA, and may serve as useful proxies for more extensive genecology research. Furthermore, we argue that care should be taken to develop commercial seed lines with functional trait values that match those of natural populations occupying climates similar to target restoration sites.

Plant Ecology↗
USGS2008

Effects of habitat disturbance on survival rates of softshell turtles (Apalone spinifera) in an urban stream

We monitored Spiny Softshell Turtles (Apalone spinifera) using mark-recapture during 1994-2005 in Gin Creek, Searcy, Arkansas. In 1997-2000 the creek bed and riparian zone were bulldozed in an effort to remove debris and improve water flow. This disturbance appeared to reduce the quantity and quality of turtle habitat. We tested for the potential effect of this habitat disturbance on the survival rates of marked turtles. We estimated annual survival rates for the population using models that allowed for variation in survival by state of maturation, year, and effects of the disturbance; we evaluated two different models of the disturbance impact. The first disturbance model incorporated a single change in survival rates, following the disturbance, whereas the second disturbance model incorporated three survival rates: pre- and postdisturbance, as well as a short-term decline during the disturbance. We used a state-transition model for our mark-recapture analysis, as softshells transition from juveniles to adults in a variable period of time. Our analysis indicated that survival varied by maturation state and was independent of a time trend or the disturbance. Annual survival rates were lower for juveniles (S?? = 0.717, SE = 0.039) than for adults (S?? = 0.836, SE = 0.025). Despite the dramatic habitat disturbance, we found no negative effects on survival rates. Our results demonstrate that, like a few other freshwater turtle species known to thrive in urban environments, populations of A. spinifera are resilient and can persist in urban environments despite periodic habitat disturbances. Copyright 2008 Society for the Study of Amphibians and Reptiles.

Journal of Herpetology↗
USGS1971

Chlorinated hydrocarbons in the marine environment. A report prepared by the Panel on Monitoring Persistent Pesticides in the Marine Environment of the Committee on Oceanography

SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS : The oceans are an ultimate accumulation site for the persistent chlorinated hydrocarbons. As much as 25 percent of the DDT compounds produced to date may have been transferred to the sea. The amount of DDT compounds in the marine biota is estimated to be less than 0.1 percent of total production, yet this amount has produced a demonstrable impact upon the marine environment. Populations of fish-eating birds have experienced reproductive failure and decline. With continued accumulations of persistent chlorinated hydrocarbons in the marine ecosystem, additional species will be threatened. Continued release of these pollutants to the environment can only accelerate the accumulation of unacceptable levels of persistent chlorinated hydrocarbons in the tissues of marine food fish. Certain risks in the utilization of chlorinated hydrocarbons are especially hard to quantify, but they require serious consideration. The rate at which such substances degrade to harmless products in the marine system is unknown; the half-lives of some of the more persistent materials are certainly of the order of years, and perhaps even of decades or centuries. If most of the remaining 75 percent of the persistent chlorinated hydrocarbons is now in reservoirs that will in time transfer their contents to the sea, we may expect an increased level of these substances in marine organisms, despite future improvements of manufacturing practices. In fact, if these compounds degrade with half-lives of decades or longer, there will be no opportunity to redress the consequences. The more the problems are studied, the more unexpected effects are identified. In view of the findings of the past decade, our prediction of the potential hazards of chlorinated hydrocarbons in the marine environment may be vastly underestimated. The Panel makes the following recommendations, which will be developed and expanded in the remainder of the report: ? A massive national effort should be made immediately to effect a drastic reduction of the escape of persistent toxicants into the environment, with the ultimate aim of achieving virtual cessation in the shortest possible time. ? Programs should be designed both to determine the rates of entry of each pollutant into the marine environment and to make base-line determinations of the distribution of the pollutants among the components of that environment, These should be followed by a program of monitoring long-term trends in order to record progress and to document possible disaster. ? The laws relating to the registration of chemical substances and the release of production figures by government should be examined and perhaps revised in light of evidence of environmental deterioration caused by some of these substances.

Book↗
USGS2012

Enhanced surveillance strategies for detecting and monitoring chronic wasting disease in free-ranging cervids

The purpose of this document is to provide wildlife management agencies with the foundation upon which they can build scientifically rigorous and cost-effective surveillance and monitoring programs for chronic wasting disease (CWD) or refine their existing programs. The first chapter provides an overview of potential demographic and spatial risk factors of susceptible wildlife populations that may be exploited for CWD surveillance and monitoring. The information contained in this chapter explores historic as well as recent developments in our understanding of CWD disease dynamics. It also contains many literature references for readers who may desire a more thorough review of the topics or CWD in general. The second chapter examines methods for enhancing efforts to detect CWD on the landscape where it is not presently known to exist and focuses on the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of the surveillance program. Specifically, it describes the means of exploiting current knowledge of demographic and spatial risk factors, as described in the first chapter, through a two-stage surveillance scheme that utilizes traditional design-based sampling approaches and novel statistical methods to incorporate information about the attributes of the landscape, environment, populations and individual animals into CWD surveillance activities. By accounting for these attributes, efficiencies can be gained and cost-savings can be realized. The final chapter is unique in relation to the first two chapters. Its focus is on designing programs to monitor CWD once it is discovered within a jurisdiction. Unlike the prior chapters that are more detailed or prescriptive, this chapter by design is considerably more general because providing comprehensive direction for creating monitoring programs for jurisdictions without consideration of their monitoring goals, sociopolitical constraints, or their biological systems, is not possible. Therefore, the authors draw upon their collective experiences implementing disease-monitoring programs to present the important questions to consider, potential tools, and various strategies for those wildlife management agencies endeavoring to create or maintain a CWD monitoring program. Its intent is to aid readers in creating efficient and cost-effective monitoring programs, while avoiding potential pitfalls. It is hoped that these three chapters will be useful tools for wildlife managers struggling to implement efficient and effective CWD disease management programs.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2020

Carrying capacity of a population diffusing in a heterogeneous environment

The carrying capacity of the environment for a population is one of the key concepts in ecology and it is incorporated in the growth term of reaction-diffusion equations describing populations in space. Analysis of reaction-diffusion models of populations in heterogeneous space have shown that, when the maximum growth rate and carrying capacity in a logistic growth function vary in space, conditions exist for which the total population size at equilibrium (i) exceeds the total population that which would occur in the absence of diffusion and (ii) exceeds that which would occur if the system were homogeneous and the total carrying capacity, computed as the integral over the local carrying capacities, was the same in the heterogeneous and homogeneous cases. We review here work over the past few years that has explained these apparently counter-intuitive results in terms of the way input of energy or another limiting resource (e.g., a nutrient) varies across the system. We report on both mathematical analysis and laboratory experiments confirming that total population size in a heterogeneous system with diffusion can exceed that in the system without diffusion. We further report, however, that when the resource of the population in question is explicitly modeled as a coupled variable, as in a reaction-diffusion chemostat model rather than a model with logistic growth, the total population in the heterogeneous system with diffusion cannot exceed the total population size in the corresponding homogeneous system in which the total carrying capacities are the same.

Mathematics and Computers in Modern Science - Acou↗
USGS1975

Optimal exploitation strategies for an animal population in a Markovian environment: A theory and an example

Optimal exploitation strategies were studied for an animal population in a Markovian (stochastic, serially correlated) environment. This is a general case and encompasses a number of important special cases as simplifications. Extensive empirical data on the Mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) were used as an example of general theory. The number of small ponds on the central breeding grounds was used as an index to the state of the environment. A general mathematical model was formulated to provide a synthesis of the existing literature, estimates of parameters developed from an analysis of data, and hypotheses regarding the specific effect of exploitation on total survival. The literature and analysis of data were inconclusive concerning the effect of exploitation on survival. Therefore, two hypotheses were explored: (1) exploitation mortality represents a largely additive form of mortality, and (2) exploitation mortality is compensatory with other forms of mortality, at least to some threshold level. Models incorporating these two hypotheses were formulated as stochastic dynamic programming models and optimal exploitation strategies were derived numerically on a digital computer. Optimal exploitation strategies were found to exist under the rather general conditions. Direct feedback control was an integral component in the optimal decision—making process. Optimal exploitation was found to be substantially different depending upon the hypothesis regarding the effect of exploitation on the population. If we assume that exploitation is largely an additive force of mortality in Mallards, then optimal exploitation decisions are a convex function of the size of the breeding population and a linear or slight concave function of the environmental conditions. Under the hypothesis of compensatory mortality forces, optimal exploitation decisions are approximately linearly related to the size of the Mallard breeding population. Dynamic programming is suggested as a very general formulation for realistic solutions to the general optimal exploitation problem. The concepts of state vectors and stage transformations are completely general. Populations can be modeled stochastically and the objective function can include extra—biological factors. The optimal level of exploitation in year t must be based on the observed size of the population and the state of the environment in year t unless the dynamics of the population, the state of the environment, and the result of the exploitation decisions are completely deterministic. Exploitation based on an average harvest, or harvest rate, or designed to maintain a constant breeding population size is inefficient.

Ecology↗
USGS2021

Breeding at higher latitude is associated with higher photoperiodic threshold and delayed reproductive development in a songbird

Many seasonally breeding animals exhibit a threshold day length (critical photoperiod; CPP) for gonadal growth, and populations breeding at higher latitudes typically have a higher CPP. Much less is known about latitudinal variation in CPP in migratory population that winter away from their breeding range and must time their reproduction to match favorable conditions at their destination. To address the relationship between migration, breeding latitude, and CPP, we held two closely related songbird populations in a common environment. One population is resident ( Junco hyemalis carolinensis ), the other winters in sympatry with the residents but migrates north to breed ( Junco hyemalis hyemalis ). We gradually increased photoperiod and measured indices of readiness to migrate (fat score, body mass) and breed (cloacal protuberance volume, baseline testosterone, and gonadotropin releasing hormone challenged testosterone). To estimate breeding latitude, we measured hydrogen isotopes in feathers grown the preceding year. As we predicted, we found a higher CPP in migrants than residents, and a higher CPP among migrants deriving from higher as opposed to lower latitudes. Migrants also terminated breeding earlier than residents, indicating a shorter breeding season. To our knowledge, this is a first demonstration of latitudinal variation in CPP-dependent reproductive timing in bird populations that co-exist in the non-breeding season but breed at different latitudes. We conclude that bird populations appear to exhibit local adaptation in reproductive timing by relying on differential CPP response that is predictive of future conditions on the breeding ground.

Indiana↗
USGS2019

Energetic constraints and the paradox of a diffusing population in a heterogeneous environment

Previous mathematical analyses have shown that, for certain parameter ranges, a population, described by logistic equations on a set of connected patches, and diffusing among them, can reach a higher equilibrium total population when the local carrying capacities are heterogeneously distributed across patches, than when carrying capacities having the same total sum are homogeneously distributed across the patches. It is shown here that this apparently paradoxical result is explained when the resultant differences in energy inputs to the whole multi-patch system are taken into account. We examine both Pearl–Verhulst and Original Verhulst logistic models and show that, when total input of energy or limiting resource, is constrained to be the same in the homogeneous and heterogeneous cases, the total population in the heterogeneous patches can never reach an asymptotic equilibrium that is greater than the sum of the carrying capacities over the homogeneous patches. We further show that, when the dynamics of the limiting resources are explicitly modeled, as in a chemostat model, the paradoxical result of the logistic models does not occur. These results have implications concerning the use of some ubiquitous equations of population ecology in modeling populations in space.

Theoretical Population Biology↗
USGS2026

Invasive hybridization has unpredicted and variable effects on trout survival in contrasting environments

Invasive hybridization between native and introduced species is widespread, especially in fishes, yet its effects on fitness-related traits across environments remain poorly understood. We combined individual genetic admixture estimates with capture–recapture data to quantify how hybridization between native Westslope Cutthroat Trout ( Oncorhynchus lewisi ) and invasive Rainbow Trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) influences survival. We measured individual survival of 5186 trout across three populations in contrasting environments. Non-native admixture significantly affected survival in two populations, with positive effects during summer and negative effects during winter. Prior research has shown hybridization increases with stream temperature; however, survival patterns did not follow this trend. In a warmer stream, native trout in all size-classes had ≥20% higher annual survival than hybrids, whereas in a cooler stream, juvenile native trout had ≥20% lower survival than hybrids. These findings indicate that hybridization effects on survival are complex and vary among populations, environments, and size-classes. Landscape patterns of hybridization may therefore not reflect local survival (or fitness) outcomes, emphasizing that measures fitness-related traits across populations and environments could elucidate the eco-evolutionary consequences of invasive hybridization.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗
USGS1974

Optimal exploitation strategies for an animal population in a stochastic serially correlated environment

Optimal exploitation strategies were studied for an animal population in a stochastic, serially correlated environment. This is a general case and encompasses a number of important cases as simplifications. Data on the mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) were used to explore the exploitation strategies and test several hypotheses because relatively much is known concerning the life history and general ecology of this species and extensive empirical data are available for analysis. The number of small ponds on the central breeding grounds was used as an index to the state of the environment. Desirable properties of an optimal exploitation strategy were defined. A mathematical model was formulated to provide a synthesis of the existing literature, estimates of parameters developed from an analysis of data, and hypotheses regarding the specific effect of exploitation on total survival. Both the literature and the analysis of data were inconclusive concerning the effect of exploitation on survival. Therefore, alternative hypotheses were formulated: (1) exploitation mortality represents a largely additive form of mortality, or (2 ) exploitation mortality is compensatory with other forms of mortality, at least to some threshold level. Models incorporating these two hypotheses were formulated as stochastic dynamic programming models and optimal exploitation strategies were derived numerically on a digital computer. Optimal exploitation strategies were found to exist under rather general conditions. Direct feedback control was an integral component in the optimal decision-making process. Optimal exploitation was found to be substantially different depending upon the hypothesis regarding the effect of exploitation on the population. Assuming that exploitation is largely an additive force of mortality, optimal exploitation decisions are a convex function of the size of the breeding population and a linear or slightly concave function of the environmental conditions. Optimal exploitation under this hypothesis tends to reduce the variance of the size of the population. Under the hypothesis of compensatory mortality forces, optimal exploitation decisions are approximately linearly related to the size of the breeding population. Environmental variables may be somewhat more important than the size of the breeding population to the production of young mallards. In contrast, the size of the breeding population appears to be more important in the exploitation process than is the state of the environment. The form of the exploitation strategy appears to be relatively insensitive to small changes in the production rate. In general, the relative importance of the size of the breeding population may decrease as fecundity increases. The optimal level of exploitation in year t must be based on the observed size of the population and the state of the environment in year t unless the dynamics of the population, the state of the environment, and the result of the exploitation decisions are completely deterministic. Exploitation based on an average harvest, harvest rate, or designed to maintain a constant breeding population size is inefficient.

Book↗
USGS1974

Optimal exploitation strategies for an animal population in a stochastic serially correlated environment

Optimal exploitation strategies were studied for an animal population in a stochastic, serially correlated environment. This is a general case and encompasses a number of important cases as simplifications. Data on the mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) were used to explore the exploitation strategies and test several hypotheses because relatively much is known concerning the life history and general ecology of this species and extensive empirical data are available for analysis. The number of small ponds on the central breeding grounds was used as an index to the state of the environment. Desirable properties of an optimal exploitation strategy were defined. A mathematical model was formulated to provide a synthesis of the existing literature, estimates of parameters developed from an analysis of data, and hypotheses regarding the specific effect of exploitation on total survival. Both the literature and the analysis of data were inconclusive concerning the effect of exploitation on survival. Therefore, alternative hypotheses were formulated: (1) exploitation mortality represents a largely additive form of mortality, or (2 ) exploitation mortality is compensatory with other forms of mortality, at least to some threshold level. Models incorporating these two hypotheses were formulated as stochastic dynamic programming models and optimal exploitation strategies were derived numerically on a digital computer. Optimal exploitation strategies were found to exist under rather general conditions. Direct feedback control was an integral component in the optimal decision-making process. Optimal exploitation was found to be substantially different depending upon the hypothesis regarding the effect of exploitation on the population. Assuming that exploitation is largely an additive force of mortality, optimal exploitation decisions are a convex function of the size of the breeding population and a linear or slightly concave function of the environmental conditions. Optimal exploitation under this hypothesis tends to reduce the variance of the size of the population. Under the hypothesis of compensatory mortality forces, optimal exploitation decisions are approximately linearly related to the size of the breeding population. Environmental variables may be somewhat more important than the size of the breeding population to the production of young mallards. In contrast, the size of the breeding population appears to be more important in the exploitation process than is the state of the environment. The form of the exploitation strategy appears to be relatively insensitive to small changes in the production rate. In general, the relative importance of the size of the breeding population may decrease as fecundity increases. The optimal level of exploitation in year t must be based on the observed size of the population and the state of the environment in year t unless the dynamics of the population, the state of the environment, and the result of the exploitation decisions are completely deterministic. Exploitation based on an average harvest, harvest rate, or designed to maintain a constant breeding population size is inefficient.

Dissertation Abstracts International↗
USGS2015

Effects of climate change on long-term population growth of pronghorn in an arid environment

Climate often drives ungulate population dynamics, and as climates change, some areas may become unsuitable for species persistence. Unraveling the relationships between climate and population dynamics, and projecting them across time, advances ecological understanding that informs and steers sustainable conservation for species. Using pronghorn ( Antilocapra americana ) as an ecological model, we used a Bayesian approach to analyze long-term population, precipitation, and temperature data from 18 populations in the southwestern United States. We determined which long-term (12 and 24 months) or short-term (gestation trimester and lactation period) climatic conditions best predicted annual rate of population growth (λ). We used these predictions to project population trends through 2090. Projections incorporated downscaled climatic data matched to pronghorn range for each population, given a high and a lower atmospheric CO 2 concentration scenario. Since the 1990s, 15 of the pronghorn populations declined in abundance. Sixteen populations demonstrated a significant relationship between precipitation and λ, and in 13 of these, temperature was also significant. Precipitation predictors of λ were highly seasonal, with lactation being the most important period, followed by early and late gestation. The influence of temperature on λ was less seasonal than precipitation, and lacked a clear temporal pattern. The climatic projections indicated that all of these pronghorn populations would experience increased temperatures, while the direction and magnitude of precipitation had high population-specific variation. Models predicted that nine populations would be extirpated or approaching extirpation by 2090. Results were consistent across both atmospheric CO 2 concentration scenarios, indicating robustness of trends irrespective of climatic severity. In the southwestern United States, the climate underpinning pronghorn populations is shifting, making conditions increasingly inhospitable to pronghorn persistence. This realization informs and steers conservation and management decisions for pronghorn in North America, while exemplifying how similar research can aid ungulates inhabiting arid regions and confronting similar circumstances elsewhere.

Ecosphere↗
USGS1995

Population differentiation in Pacific salmon: local adaptation, genetic drift, or the environment?

Morphological, behavioral, and life-history differences between Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) populations are commonly thought to reflect local adaptation, and it is likewise common to assume that salmon populations separated by small distances are locally adapted. Two alternatives to local adaptation exist: random genetic differentiation owing to genetic drift and founder events, and genetic homogeneity among populations, in which differences reflect differential trait expression in differing environments. Population genetics theory and simulations suggest that both alternatives are possible. With selectively neutral alleles, genetic drift can result in random differentiation despite many strays per generation. Even weak selection can prevent genetic drift in stable populations; however, founder effects can result in random differentiation despite selective pressures. Overlapping generations reduce the potential for random differentiation. Genetic homogeneity can occur despite differences in selective regimes when straying rates are high. In sum, localized differences in selection should not always result in local adaptation. Local adaptation is favored when population sizes are large and stable, selection is consistent over large areas, selective diffeentials are large, and straying rates are neither too high nor too low. Consideration of alternatives to local adaptation would improve both biological research and salmon conservation efforts.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗
USGS2021

Demographic responses to climate change in a threatened Arctic species

The Arctic is undergoing rapid and accelerating change in response to global warming, altering biodiversity patterns, and ecosystem function across the region. For Arctic endemic species, our understanding of the consequences of such change remains limited. Spectacled eiders ( Somateria fischeri ), a large Arctic sea duck, use remote regions in the Bering Sea, Arctic Russia, and Alaska throughout the annual cycle making it difficult to conduct comprehensive surveys or demographic studies. Listed as Threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, understanding the species response to climate change is critical for effective conservation policy and planning. Here, we developed an integrated population model to describe spectacled eider population dynamics using capture–mark–recapture, breeding population survey, nest survey, and environmental data collected between 1992 and 2014. Our intent was to estimate abundance, population growth, and demographic rates, and quantify how changes in the environment influenced population dynamics. Abundance of spectacled eiders breeding in western Alaska has increased since listing in 1993 and responded more strongly to annual variation in first-year survival than adult survival or productivity. We found both adult survival and nest success were highest in years following intermediate sea ice conditions during the wintering period, and both demographic rates declined when sea ice conditions were above or below average. In recent years, sea ice extent has reached new record lows and has remained below average throughout the winter for multiple years in a row. Sea ice persistence is expected to further decline in the Bering Sea. Our results indicate spectacled eiders may be vulnerable to climate change and the increasingly variable sea ice conditions throughout their wintering range with potentially deleterious effects on population dynamics. Importantly, we identified that different demographic rates responded similarly to changes in sea ice conditions, emphasizing the need for integrated analyses to understand population dynamics.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2005

Transient population dynamics: Relations to life history and initial population state

Most environments are variable and disturbances (e.g., hurricanes, fires) can lead to substantial changes in a population's state (i.e., age, stage, or size distribution). In these situations, the long-term (i.e., asymptotic) measure of population growth rate (??1) may inaccurately represent population growth in the short-term. Thus, we calculated the short-term (i.e., transient) population growth rate and its sensitivity to changes in the life-cycle parameters for three bird and three mammal species with widely varying life histories. Further, we performed these calculations for initial population states that spanned the entire range of possibilities. Variation in a population's initial net reproductive value largely explained the variation in transient growth rates and their sensitivities to changes in life-cycle parameters (all AICc ??? 6.67 units better than the null model, all R2 ??? 0.55). Additionally, the transient fertility and adult survival sensitivities tended to increase with the initial net reproductive value of the population, whereas the sub-adult survival sensitivity decreased. Transient population dynamics of long-lived, slow reproducing species were more variable and more different than asymptotic dynamics than they were for short-lived, fast reproducing species. Because ??1 can be a biased estimate of the actual growth rate in the short-term (e.g., 19% difference), conservation and wildlife biologists should consider transient dynamics when developing management plans that could affect a population's state, or whenever population state could be unstable.

Ecological Modelling↗