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Applications of natural language processing to geoscience text data and prospectivity modelling

Geological maps are powerful models for visualizing the complex distribution of rock types through space and time. However, the descriptive information that forms the basis for a preferred map interpretation is typically stored in geological map databases as unstructured text data that are difficult to use in practice. Herein we apply natural language processing (NLP) to geoscientific text data from Canada, the U.S., and Australia to address that knowledge gap. First, rock descriptions, geological ages, lithostratigraphic and lithodemic information, and other long-form text data are translated to numerical vectors, i.e., a word embedding, using a geoscience language model. Network analysis of word associations, nearest neighbors, and principal component analysis are then used to extract meaningful semantic relationships between rock types. We further demonstrate using simple Naive Bayes classifiers and the area under receiver operating characteristics plots (AUC) how word vectors can be used to: (1) predict the locations of “pegmatitic” (AUC = 0.962) and “alkalic” (AUC = 0.938) rocks; (2) predict mineral potential for Mississippi-Valley-type (AUC = 0.868) and clastic-dominated (AUC = 0.809) Zn-Pb deposits; and (3) search geoscientific text data for analogues of the giant Mount Isa clastic-dominated Zn-Pb deposit using the cosine similarities between word vectors. This form of semantic search is a promising NLP approach for assessing mineral potential with limited training data. Overall, the results highlight how geoscience language models and NLP can be used to extract new knowledge from unstructured text data and reduce the mineral exploration search space for critical raw materials.

Natural Resources Research

Methane hydrate-bearing seeps as a source of aged dissolved organic carbon to the oceans

Marine sediments contain about 500–10,000 Gt of methane carbon1, 2, 3, primarily in gas hydrate. This reservoir is comparable in size to the amount of organic carbon in land biota, terrestrial soils, the atmosphere and sea water combined1, 4, but it releases relatively little methane to the ocean and atmosphere5. Sedimentary microbes convert most of the dissolved methane to carbon dioxide6, 7. Here we show that a significant additional product associated with microbial methane consumption is methane-derived dissolved organic carbon. We use Δ14C and δ13C measurements and isotopic mass-balance calculations to evaluate the contribution of methane-derived carbon to seawater dissolved organic carbon overlying gas hydrate-bearing seeps in the northeastern Pacific Ocean. We show that carbon derived from fossil methane accounts for up to 28% of the dissolved organic carbon. This methane-derived material is much older, and more depleted in 13C, than background dissolved organic carbon. We suggest that fossil methane-derived carbon may contribute significantly to the estimated 4,000–6,000 year age of dissolved organic carbon in the deep ocean8, and provide reduced organic matter and energy to deep-ocean microbial communities.

Nature Geoscience

Geophysical studies of the West Antarctic rift system

The West Antarctic rift system extends over a 3000 × 750 km, largely ice covered area from the Ross Sea to the base of the Antarctic Peninsula, comparable in area to the Basin and Range and the East African rift system. A spectacular rift shoulder scarp along which peaks reach 4–5 km maximum elevation marks one flank and extends from northern Victoria Land-Queen Maud Mountains to the Ellsworth-Whitmore-Horlick Mountains. The rift shoulder has maximum present physiographic relief of 5 km in the Ross Embayment and 7 km in the Ellsworth Mountains-Byrd Subglacial Basin area. The Transantarctic Mountains part of the rift shoulder (and probably the entire shoulder) has been interpreted as rising since about 60 Ma, at episodic rates of ∼1 km/m.y., most recently since mid-Pliocene time, rather than continuously at the mean rate of 100 m/m.y. The rift system is characterized by bimodal alkaline volcanic rocks ranging from at least Oligocene to the present. These are exposed asymmetrically along the rift flanks and at the south end of the Antarctic Peninsula. The trend of the Jurassic tholeiites (Ferrar dolerites, Kirkpatric basalts) marking the Jurassic Transantarctic rift is coincident with exposures of the late Cenozoic volcanic rocks along the section of the Transantarctic Mountains from northern Victoria Land to the Horlick Mountains. The Cenozoic rift shoulder diverges here from the Jurassic tholeiite trend, and the tholeiites are exposed continuously (including the Dufek intrusion) along the lower- elevation (1–2 km) section of Transantarctic Mountains to the Weddell Sea. Widely spaced aeromagnetic profiles in West Antarctica indicate the absence of Cenozoic volcanic rocks in the ice covered part of the Whitmore-Ellsworth-Mountain block and suggest their widespread occurrence beneath the western part of the ice sheet overlying the Byrd Subglacial Basin. A German Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR)-U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) aeromagnetic survey over the Ross Sea continental shelf indicates rift fabric and suggests numerous submarine volcanoes along discrete NNW trending zones. A Bouguer anomaly range of approximately 200 (+50 to −150) mGal having 4–7 mGal/km gradients where measured in places marks the rift shoulder from northern Victoria Land possibly to the Ellsworth Mountains (where data are too sparse to determine maximum amplitude and gradient). The steepest gravity gradients across the rift shoulder require high density (mafic or ultramafic?) rock within the crust as well as at least 12 km of thinner crust beneath the West Antarctic rift system in contrast to East Antarctica. Sparse land seismic data reported along the rift shoulder, where velocities are greater than 7 km/s, and marine data indicating velocities above 7 km/s beneath the Ross Sea continental shelf support this interpretation. The maximum Bouguer gravity range in the Pensacola Mountains area of the Transantarctic Mountains is only about 130 mGal with a maximum 2 mGal/km gradient, which can be explained solely by 8 km of crustal thickening. Large offset seismic profiles over the Ross Sea shelf collected by the German Antarctic North Victoria Land Expedition V (GANOVEX V) combined with earlier USGS and other results indicate 17–21 km thickness for the crust beneath the Ross Sea shelf which we interpret as evidence of extended rifted continental crust. A regional positive Bouguer anomaly (0 to +50 mGal), the width of the rift, extends from the Ross Sea continental shelf throughout the Ross Embayment and Byrd Subglacial Basin area of the West Antarctic rift system and indicates that the Moho is approximately 20 km deep tied to the seismic results (probably coincident with the top of the asthenosphere) rather than the 30 km reported in earlier interpretations. The interpretation of horst and graben structures in the Ross Sea, made from marine seismic reflection data, probably can be extended throughout the rift (i.e., the Ross Ice shelf and the Byrd Subglacial Basin areas). The near absence of earthquakes in the West Antarctic rift system probably results from a combination of primarily sparse seismograph coverage and, secondarily, suppression of earthquakes by the ice sheet (e.g., Johnston, 1987) and very high seismicity shortly after deglaciation in the Ross Embayment followed by abnormally low seismicity at present (e.g., Muir Wood, 1989). The evidence of high temperatures at shallow depth beneath the Ross Sea continental shelf and adjacent Transantarctic Mountains is supportive of thermal uplift of the mountains associated with lateral heat conduction from the rift and can possibly also explain the volcanism, rifting, and high elevation of the entire rift shoulder to the Ellsworth-Horlick-Whitmore Mountains. We infer that the Gondwana breakup and the West Antarctic rift are part of a continuously propagating rift that started in the Jurassic when Africa separated from East Antarctica (including the failed Jurassic Transantarctic rift). Rifting proceeded clockwise around East Antarctica to the separation of New Zealand and the Campbell Plateau about 85–95 Ma and has continued (with a spreading center jump) to its present location in the Ross Embayment and West Antarctica. The Cenozoic activity of the West Antarctic rift system appears to be continuous in time with rifting in the same area that began only in the late Mesozoic. Although the mechanism for rifting is not completely explained, we suggest a combination of the flexural rigidity model (Stem and ten Brink, 1989) proposed for the Ross Embayment and the thermal plume or hot spot concepts. The propagating rift may have been “captured” by the thermal plume.

Tectonics

Persistent earthquake clusters and gaps from slip on irregular faults

Earthquake-producing fault systems like the San Andreas fault in California show self-similar structural variation 1 ; earthquakes cluster in space, leaving aseismic gaps between clusters. Whether gaps represent overdue earthquakes or signify diminished risk is a question with which seismic-hazard forecasters wrestle 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 . Here I use spectral analysis of the spatial distribution of seismicity along the San Andreas fault (for earthquakes that are at least 2 in magnitude), which reveals that it obeys a power-law relationship, indicative of self-similarity in clusters across a range of spatial scales. To determine whether the observed clustering of earthquakes is the result of a heterogeneous stress distribution, I use a finite-element method to simulate the motion of two rigid blocks past each other along a model fault surface that shows three-dimensional complexity on the basis of mapped traces of the San Andreas fault. The results indicate that long-term slip on the model fault generates a temporally stable, spatially variable distribution of stress that shows the same power-law relationship as the earthquake distribution. At the highest rates of San Andreas fault slip (40 mm yr −1 ), stress patterns produced are stable over a minimum of 25,000 years before the model fault system evolves into a new configuration. These results suggest that although gaps are not immune to rupture propagation they are less likely to be nucleation sites for earthquakes.

California

Decreased abundance of crustose coralline algae due to ocean acidification

Owing to anthropogenic emissions, atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide could almost double between 2006 and 2100 according to business-as-usual carbon dioxide emission scenarios 1 . Because the ocean absorbs carbon dioxide from the atmosphere 2, 3, 4 , increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations will lead to increasing dissolved inorganic carbon and carbon dioxide in surface ocean waters, and hence acidification and lower carbonate saturation states 2, 5 . As a consequence, it has been suggested that marine calcifying organisms, for example corals, coralline algae, molluscs and foraminifera, will have difficulties producing their skeletons and shells at current rates 6, 7 , with potentially severe implications for marine ecosystems, including coral reefs 6, 8, 9, 10, 11 . Here we report a seven-week experiment exploring the effects of ocean acidification on crustose coralline algae, a cosmopolitan group of calcifying algae that is ecologically important in most shallow-water habitats 12, 13, 14 . Six outdoor mesocosms were continuously supplied with sea water from the adjacent reef and manipulated to simulate conditions of either ambient or elevated seawater carbon dioxide concentrations. The recruitment rate and growth of crustose coralline algae were severely inhibited in the elevated carbon dioxide mesocosms. Our findings suggest that ocean acidification due to human activities could cause significant change to benthic community structure in shallow-warm-water carbonate ecosystems.

Nature Geoscience

Recent acceleration of biomass burning and carbon losses in Alaskan forests and peatlands

Climate change has increased the area affected by forest fires each year in boreal North America. Increases in burned area and fire frequency are expected to stimulate boreal carbon losses. However, the impact of wildfires on carbon emissions is also affected by the severity of burning. How climate change influences the severity of biomass burning has proved difficult to assess. Here, we examined the depth of ground-layer combustion in 178 sites dominated by black spruce in Alaska, using data collected from 31 fire events between 1983 and 2005. We show that the depth of burning increased as the fire season progressed when the annual area burned was small. However, deep burning occurred throughout the fire season when the annual area burned was large. Depth of burning increased late in the fire season in upland forests, but not in peatland and permafrost sites. Simulations of wildfire-induced carbon losses from Alaskan black spruce stands over the past 60 years suggest that ground-layer combustion has accelerated regional carbon losses over the past decade, owing to increases in burn area and late-season burning. As a result, soils in these black spruce stands have become a net source of carbon to the atmosphere, with carbon emissions far exceeding decadal uptake.

Nature Geoscience

Absence of remotely triggered large earthquakes beyond the mainshock region

Large earthquakes are known to trigger earthquakes elsewhere. Damaging large aftershocks occur close to the mainshock and microearthquakes are triggered by passing seismic waves at significant distances from the mainshock. It is unclear, however, whether bigger, more damaging earthquakes are routinely triggered at distances far from the mainshock, heightening the global seismic hazard after every large earthquake. Here we assemble a catalogue of all possible earthquakes greater than M 5 that might have been triggered by every M 7 or larger mainshock during the past 30 years. We compare the timing of earthquakes greater than M 5 with the temporal and spatial passage of surface waves generated by large earthquakes using a complete worldwide catalogue. Whereas small earthquakes are triggered immediately during the passage of surface waves at all spatial ranges, we find no significant temporal association between surface-wave arrivals and larger earthquakes. We observe a significant increase in the rate of seismic activity at distances confined to within two to three rupture lengths of the mainshock. Thus, we conclude that the regional hazard of larger earthquakes is increased after a mainshock, but the global hazard is not.

Nature Geoscience

Triggered creep as a possible mechanism for delayed dynamic triggering of tremor and earthquakes

The passage of radiating seismic waves generates transient stresses in the Earth’s crust that can trigger slip on faults far away from the original earthquake source. The triggered fault slip is detectable in the form of earthquakes and seismic tremor . However, the significance of these triggered events remains controversial , in part because they often occur with some delay, long after the triggering stress has passed. Here we scrutinize the location and timing of tremor on the San Andreas fault between 2001 and 2010 in relation to distant earthquakes. We observe tremor on the San Andreas fault that is initiated by passing seismic waves, yet migrates along the fault at a much slower velocity than the radiating seismic waves. We suggest that the migrating tremor records triggered slow slip of the San Andreas fault as a propagating creep event. We find that the triggered tremor and fault creep can be initiated by distant earthquakes as small as magnitude 5.4 and can persist for several days after the seismic waves have passed. Our observations of prolonged tremor activity provide a clear example of the delayed dynamic triggering of seismic events. Fault creep has been shown to trigger earthquakes and we therefore suggest that the dynamic triggering of prolonged fault creep could provide a mechanism for the delayed triggering of earthquakes.

California

Loading of the San Andreas fault by flood-induced rupture of faults beneath the Salton Sea

The southern San Andreas fault has not experienced a large earthquake for approximately 300 years, yet the previous five earthquakes occurred at ~180-year intervals. Large strike-slip faults are often segmented by lateral stepover zones. Movement on smaller faults within a stepover zone could perturb the main fault segments and potentially trigger a large earthquake. The southern San Andreas fault terminates in an extensional stepover zone beneath the Salton Sea—a lake that has experienced periodic flooding and desiccation since the late Holocene. Here we reconstruct the magnitude and timing of fault activity beneath the Salton Sea over several earthquake cycles. We observe coincident timing between flooding events, stepover fault displacement and ruptures on the San Andreas fault. Using Coulomb stress models, we show that the combined effect of lake loading, stepover fault movement and increased pore pressure could increase stress on the southern San Andreas fault to levels sufficient to induce failure. We conclude that rupture of the stepover faults, caused by periodic flooding of the palaeo-Salton Sea and by tectonic forcing, had the potential to trigger earthquake rupture on the southern San Andreas fault. Extensional stepover zones are highly susceptible to rapid stress loading and thus the Salton Sea may be a nucleation point for large ruptures on the southern San Andreas fault.

California

Superficial simplicity of the 2010 El Mayorg-Cucapah earthquake of Baja California in Mexico

The geometry of faults is usually thought to be more complicated at the surface than at depth and to control the initiation, propagation and arrest of seismic ruptures 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 . The fault system that runs from southern California into Mexico is a simple strike-slip boundary: the west side of California and Mexico moves northwards with respect to the east. However, the M w 7.2 2010 El Mayor–Cucapah earthquake on this fault system produced a pattern of seismic waves that indicates a far more complex source than slip on a planar strike-slip fault 7 . Here we use geodetic, remote-sensing and seismological data to reconstruct the fault geometry and history of slip during this earthquake. We find that the earthquake produced a straight 120-km-long fault trace that cut through the Cucapah mountain range and across the Colorado River delta. However, at depth, the fault is made up of two different segments connected by a small extensional fault. Both segments strike N130° E, but dip in opposite directions. The earthquake was initiated on the connecting extensional fault and 15 s later ruptured the two main segments with dominantly strike-slip motion. We show that complexities in the fault geometry at depth explain well the complex pattern of radiated seismic waves. We conclude that the location and detailed characteristics of the earthquake could not have been anticipated on the basis of observations of surface geology alone.

California, Arizona

Increasing eolian dust deposition in the western United States linked to human activity

Mineral aerosols from dust are an important influence on climate and on marine and terrestrial biogeochemical cycles. These aerosols are generated from wind erosion of surface soils. The amount of dust emission can therefore be affected by human activities that alter surface sediments. However, changes in regional- and global-scale dust fluxes following the rapid expansion of human populations and settlements over the past two centuries are not well understood. Here we determine the accumulation rates and geochemical properties of alpine lake sediments from the western interior United States for the past 5,000 years. We find that dust load levels increased by 500% above the late Holocene average following the increased western settlement of the United States during the nineteenth century. We suggest that the increased dust deposition is caused by the expansion of livestock grazing in the early twentieth century. The larger dust flux, which persists into the early twenty-first century, results in a more than fivefold increase in inputs of K, Mg, Ca, N and P to the alpine ecosystems, with implications for surface-water alkalinity, aquatic productivity and terrestrial nutrient cycling.

Colorado

Anthropogenic aerosols as a source of ancient dissolved organic matter in glaciers

Glacier-derived dissolved organic matter represents a quantitatively significant source of ancient, yet highly bioavailable carbon to downstream ecosystems. This finding runs counter to logical perceptions of age–reactivity relationships, in which the least reactive material withstands degradation the longest and is therefore the oldest. The remnants of ancient peatlands and forests overrun by glaciers have been invoked as the source of this organic matter. Here, we examine the radiocarbon age and chemical composition of dissolved organic matter in snow, glacier surface water, ice and glacier outflow samples from Alaska to determine the origin of the organic matter. Low levels of compounds derived from vascular plants indicate that the organic matter does not originate from forests or peatlands. Instead, we show that the organic matter on the surface of the glaciers is radiocarbon depleted, consistent with an anthropogenic aerosol source. Fluorescence spectrophotometry measurements reveal the presence of protein-like compounds of microbial or aerosol origin. In addition, ultrahigh-resolution mass spectrometry measurements document the presence of combustion products found in anthropogenic aerosols. Based on the presence of these compounds, we suggest that aerosols derived from fossil fuel burning are a source of pre-aged organic matter to glacier surfaces. Furthermore, we show that the molecular signature of the organic matter is conserved in snow, glacier water and outflow, suggesting that the anthropogenic carbon is exported relatively unchanged in glacier outflows.

Nature Geoscience

A mantle-driven surge in magma supply to Kīlauea Volcano during 2003-2007

The eruptive activity of a volcano is fundamentally controlled by the rate of magma supply. At Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai‘i, the rate of magma rising from a source within Earth’s mantle, through the Hawaiian hotspot, was thought to have been relatively steady in recent decades. Here we show that the magma supply to Kīlauea at least doubled during 2003–2007, resulting in dramatic changes in eruptive activity and the formation of new eruptive vents. An initial indication of the surge in supply was an increase in CO 2 emissions during 2003–2004, combined with the onset of inflation of Kīlauea’s summit, measured using the Global Positioning System and interferometric synthetic aperture radar. Inflation was not limited to the summit magma reservoirs, but was recorded as far as 50 km from the summit, implying the existence of a connected magma system over that distance. We also record increases in SO 2 emissions, heightened seismicity, and compositional and temperature variations in erupted lavas. The increase in the volume of magma passing through and stored within Kīlauea, coupled with increased CO 2 emissions, indicate a mantle source for the magma surge. We suggest that magma supply from the Hawaiian hotspot can vary over timescales of years, and that CO 2 emissions could be a valuable aid for assessing variations in magma supply at Kīlauea and other volcanoes.

Nature Geoscience

Aftershocks halted by static stress shadows

Earthquakes impart static and dynamic stress changes to the surrounding crust. Sudden fault slip causes small but permanent—static—stress changes, and passing seismic waves cause large, but brief and oscillatory—dynamic—stress changes. Because both static and dynamic stresses can trigger earthquakes within several rupture dimensions of a mainshock, it has proven difficult to disentangle their contributions to the triggering process 1–3 . However, only dynamic stress can trigger earthquakes far from the source 4,5 , and only static stress can create stress shadows, where the stress and thus the seismicity rate in the shadow area drops following an earthquake 6–9 . Here we calculate the stress imparted by the magnitude 6.1 Joshua Tree and nearby magnitude 7.3 Landers earthquakes that occurred in California in April and June 1992, respectively, and measure seismicity through time. We show that, where the aftershock zone of the first earthquake was subjected to a static stress increase from the second, the seismicity rate jumped. In contrast, where the aftershock zone of the first earthquake fell under the stress shadow of the second and static stress dropped, seismicity shut down. The arrest of seismicity implies that static stress is a requisite element of spatial clustering of large earthquakes and should be a constituent of hazard assessment.

California

Biogeochemistry: unexpected uptake

Lichens, cyanobacteria, mosses and algae coat many terrestrial surfaces. These biological covers turn out to play an important role in the global cycling of carbon and nitrogen.

Nature Geoscience

Deep Arctic Ocean warming during the last glacial cycle

In the Arctic Ocean, the cold and relatively fresh water beneath the sea ice is separated from the underlying warmer and saltier Atlantic Layer by a halocline. Ongoing sea ice loss and warming in the Arctic Ocean have demonstrated the instability of the halocline, with implications for further sea ice loss. The stability of the halocline through past climate variations is unclear. Here we estimate intermediate water temperatures over the past 50,000 years from the Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca values of ostracods from 31 Arctic sediment cores. From about 50 to 11 kyr ago, the central Arctic Basin from 1,000 to 2,500 m was occupied by a water mass we call Glacial Arctic Intermediate Water. This water mass was 1–2 °C warmer than modern Arctic Intermediate Water, with temperatures peaking during or just before millennial-scale Heinrich cold events and the Younger Dryas cold interval. We use numerical modelling to show that the intermediate depth warming could result from the expected decrease in the flux of fresh water to the Arctic Ocean during glacial conditions, which would cause the halocline to deepen and push the warm Atlantic Layer into intermediate depths. Although not modelled, the reduced formation of cold, deep waters due to the exposure of the Arctic continental shelf could also contribute to the intermediate depth warming.

Nature Geoscience

Coupling at Mauna Loa and Kīlauea by stress transfer in an asthenospheric melt layer

The eruptive activity at the neighbouring Hawaiian volcanoes, Kīlauea and Mauna Loa, is thought to be linked despite both having separate lithospheric magmatic plumbing systems. Over the past century, activity at the two volcanoes has been anti-correlated, which could reflect a competition for the same magma supply. Yet, during the past decade Kīlauea and Mauna Loa have inflated simultaneously. Linked activity between adjacent volcanoes in general remains controversial. Here we present a numerical model for the dynamical interaction between Kīlauea and Mauna Loa, where both volcanoes are coupled by pore-pressure diffusion, occurring within a common, asthenospheric magma supply system. The model is constrained by measurements of gas emission rates indicative of eruptive activity, and it is calibrated to match geodetic measurements of surface deformation at both volcanoes, inferred to reflect changes in shallow magma storage. Although an increase in the asthenospheric magma supply can cause simultaneous inflation of Kīlauea and Mauna Loa, we find that eruptive activity at one volcano may inhibit eruptions of the adjacent volcano, if there is no concurrent increase in magma supply. We conclude that dynamic stress transfer by asthenospheric pore pressure is a viable mechanism for volcano coupling at Hawai‘i, and perhaps for adjacent volcanoes elsewhere.

Hawai'i

Linking the historic 2011 Mississippi River flood to coastal wetland sedimentation

Wetlands in the Mississippi River deltaic plain are deteriorating in part because levees and control structures starve them of sediment. In Spring of 2011 a record-breaking flood brought discharge on the lower Mississippi River to dangerous levels, forcing managers to divert up to 3500 m 3 /s -1 of water to the Atchafalaya River Basin. Here we quantify differences between the Mississippi and Atchafalaya River inundation and sediment-plume patterns using field-calibrated satellite data, and assess the impact these outflows had on wetland sedimentation. We characterize hydrodynamics and suspended sediment patterns of the Mississippi River plume using in-situ data collected during the historic flood. We show that the focused, high-momentum jet from the leveed Mississippi delivered sediment far offshore. In contrast, the plume from the Atchafalaya was more diffuse; diverted water inundated a large area; and sediment was trapped within the coastal current. Maximum sedimentation (up to several centimetres) occurred in the Atchafalaya Basin despite the larger sediment load carried by the Mississippi. Minimum accumulation occurred along the shoreline between these river sources. Our findings provide a mechanistic link between river-mouth dynamics and wetland sedimentation patterns that is relevant for plans to restore deltaic wetlands using artificial diversions.

Atchafalaya River