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Results for “Journal of the American Statistical Association”

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At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2004

N-mixture models for estimating population size from spatially replicated counts

Spatial replication is a common theme in count surveys of animals. Such surveys often generate sparse count data from which it is difficult to estimate population size while formally accounting for detection probability. In this article, I describe a class of models (n-mixture models) which allow for estimation of population size from such data. The key idea is to view site-specific population sizes, n, as independent random variables distributed according to some mixing distribution (e.g., Poisson). Prior parameters are estimated from the marginal likelihood of the data, having integrated over the prior distribution for n. Carroll and Lombard (1985, Journal of American Statistical Association 80, 423-426) proposed a class of estimators based on mixing over a prior distribution for detection probability. Their estimator can be applied in limited settings, but is sensitive to prior parameter values that are fixed a priori. Spatial replication provides additional information regarding the parameters of the prior distribution on n that is exploited by the n-mixture models and which leads to reasonable estimates of abundance from sparse data. A simulation study demonstrates superior operating characteristics (bias, confidence interval coverage) of the n-mixture estimator compared to the Caroll and Lombard estimator. Both estimators are applied to point count data on six species of birds illustrating the sensitivity to choice of prior on p and substantially different estimates of abundance as a consequence.

Biometrics↗
USGS1995

Estimation and confidence intervals for empirical mixing distributions

Questions regarding collections of parameter estimates can frequently be expressed in terms of an empirical mixing distribution (EMD). This report discusses empirical Bayes estimation of an EMD, with emphasis on the construction of interval estimates. Estimation of the EMD is accomplished by substitution of estimates of prior parameters in the posterior mean of the EMD. This procedure is examined in a parametric model (the normal-normal mixture) and in a semi-parametric model. In both cases, the empirical Bayes bootstrap of Laird and Louis (1987, Journal of the American Statistical Association 82, 739-757) is used to assess the variability of the estimated EMD arising from the estimation of prior parameters. The proposed methods are applied to a meta-analysis of population trend estimates for groups of birds.

Biometrics↗
USGS2017

Basis function models for animal movement

Advances in satellite-based data collection techniques have served as a catalyst for new statistical methodology to analyze these data. In wildlife ecological studies, satellite-based data and methodology have provided a wealth of information about animal space use and the investigation of individual-based animal–environment relationships. With the technology for data collection improving dramatically over time, we are left with massive archives of historical animal telemetry data of varying quality. While many contemporary statistical approaches for inferring movement behavior are specified in discrete time, we develop a flexible continuous-time stochastic integral equation framework that is amenable to reduced-rank second-order covariance parameterizations. We demonstrate how the associated first-order basis functions can be constructed to mimic behavioral characteristics in realistic trajectory processes using telemetry data from mule deer and mountain lion individuals in western North America. Our approach is parallelizable and provides inference for heterogenous trajectories using nonstationary spatial modeling techniques that are feasible for large telemetry datasets. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

Journal of the American Statistical Association↗
USGS2013

Circuit theory and model-based inference for landscape connectivity

Circuit theory has seen extensive recent use in the field of ecology, where it is often applied to study functional connectivity. The landscape is typically represented by a network of nodes and resistors, with the resistance between nodes a function of landscape characteristics. The effective distance between two locations on a landscape is represented by the resistance distance between the nodes in the network. Circuit theory has been applied to many other scientific fields for exploratory analyses, but parametric models for circuits are not common in the scientific literature. To model circuits explicitly, we demonstrate a link between Gaussian Markov random fields and contemporary circuit theory using a covariance structure that induces the necessary resistance distance. This provides a parametric model for second-order observations from such a system. In the landscape ecology setting, the proposed model provides a simple framework where inference can be obtained for effects that landscape features have on functional connectivity. We illustrate the approach through a landscape genetics study linking gene flow in alpine chamois (Rupicapra rupicapra) to the underlying landscape.

Journal of the American Statistical Association↗
USGS2005

Estimating size and composition of biological communities by modeling the occurrence of species

We develop a model that uses repeated observations of a biological community to estimate the number and composition of species in the community. Estimators of community-level attributes are constructed from model-based estimators of occurrence of individual species that incorporate imperfect detection of individuals. Data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey are analyzed to illustrate the variety of ecologically important quantities that are easily constructed and estimated using our model-based estimators of species occurrence. In particular, we compute site-specific estimates of species richness that honor classical notions of species-area relationships. We suggest extensions of our model to estimate maps of occurrence of individual species and to compute inferences related to the temporal and spatial dynamics of biological communities.

Journal of the American Statistical Association↗
USGS2005

Two-stage sequential sampling: A neighborhood-free adaptive sampling procedure

Designing an efficient sampling scheme for a rare and clustered population is a challenging area of research. Adaptive cluster sampling, which has been shown to be viable for such a population, is based on sampling a neighborhood of units around a unit that meets a specified condition. However, the edge units produced by sampling neighborhoods have proven to limit the efficiency and applicability of adaptive cluster sampling. We propose a sampling design that is adaptive in the sense that the final sample depends on observed values, but it avoids the use of neighborhoods and the sampling of edge units. Unbiased estimators of population total and its variance are derived using Murthy's estimator. The modified two-stage sampling design is easy to implement and can be applied to a wider range of populations than adaptive cluster sampling. We evaluate the proposed sampling design by simulating sampling of two real biological populations and an artificial population for which the variable of interest took the value either 0 or 1 (e.g., indicating presence and absence of a rare event). We show that the proposed sampling design is more efficient than conventional sampling in nearly all cases. The approach used to derive estimators (Murthy's estimator) opens the door for unbiased estimators to be found for similar sequential sampling designs. ?? 2005 American Statistical Association and the International Biometric Society.

Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environme↗
USGS2006

A robust design mark-resight abundance estimator allowing heterogeneity in resighting probabilities

This article introduces the beta-binomial estimator (BBE), a closed-population abundance mark-resight model combining the favorable qualities of maximum likelihood theory and the allowance of individual heterogeneity in sighting probability (p). The model may be parameterized for a robust sampling design consisting of multiple primary sampling occasions where closure need not be met between primary occasions. We applied the model to brown bear data from three study areas in Alaska and compared its performance to the joint hypergeometric estimator (JHE) and Bowden's estimator (BOWE). BBE estimates suggest heterogeneity levels were non-negligible and discourage the use of JHE for these data. Compared to JHE and BOWE, confidence intervals were considerably shorter for the AICc model-averaged BBE. To evaluate the properties of BBE relative to JHE and BOWE when sample sizes are small, simulations were performed with data from three primary occasions generated under both individual heterogeneity and temporal variation in p. All models remained consistent regardless of levels of variation in p. In terms of precision, the AICc model-averaged BBE showed advantages over JHE and BOWE when heterogeneity was present and mean sighting probabilities were similar between primary occasions. Based on the conditions examined, BBE is a reliable alternative to JHE or BOWE and provides a framework for further advances in mark-resight abundance estimation. ?? 2006 American Statistical Association and the International Biometric Society.

Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environme↗
USGS2007

Estimation of long-term discharge statistics by regional adjustment

A regional adjustment relationship was developed to estimate long-term (30-year) monthly median discharges from short term (three-year) records. This method differs from traditional approaches in that it is based on site-specific discharge data but does not require correlation of these data with discharges from a single hydrologically similar long-term gage. The method is shown to be statistically robust, and applicable to statistics other than the median.A regional adjustment relationship was developed to estimate long-term (30-year) monthly discharges from short term (three-year) records. This method differs from traditional approaches in that it is based on site-specific discharge data but does not require correlation of these data with discharges from a single hydrologically similar long-term gage. The method is shown to be statistically robust, and applicable to statistics other than the median.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗
USGS2007

Improving regional-model estimates of urban-runoff quality using local data

Urban water-quality managers need load estimates of storm-runoff pollutants to design effective remedial programs. Estimates are commonly made using published models calibrated to large regions of the country. This paper presents statistical methods, termed model-adjustment procedures (MAPs), which use a combination of local data and published regional models to improve estimates of urban-runoff quality. Each MAP is a form of regression analysis that uses a local data base as a calibration data set to adjust the regional model, in effect increasing the size of the local data base without additional, expensive data collection. The adjusted regional model can then be used to estimate storm-runoff quality at unmonitored sites and storms in the locality. The four MAPs presented in this study are (1) single-factor regression against the regional model prediction, P u ; (2) least-squares regression against P u ; (3) least-squares regression against P u and additional local variables; and (4) weighted combination of P u and a local-regression prediction. Identification of the statistically most valid method among these four depends upon characteristics of the local data base. A MAP-selection scheme based on statistical analysis of the calibration data set is presented and tested.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗
USGS1988

Use of a portable electric barrier to estimate Chinook salmon escapement in a turbid Alaskan river

We developed a portable electric barrier to aid in the capture of adult chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha undergoing spawning migrations up a turbid stream in south-central Alaska. In 1981, we tagged and released 157 chinook salmon after diverting them from the main-stem Killey River into a conventional trap with the aid of the electric barrier. On the basis of returns of tagged salmon to Benjamin Creek, a clear-water tributary of the upper Killey River, we estimated spawners in the drainage to number 8,000 fish. Two different statistical approaches to the mark–recapture data yielded similar estimates. Through several modifications of the electric barrier, we were able to reduce mortality associated with the barrier's use.

Alaska↗
USGS2023

The consequences of neglecting reservoir storage in national-scale hydrologic models: An appraisal of key streamflow statistics

A better understanding of modeled streamflow errors related to basin reservoir storage is needed for large regions, which normally have many ungaged basins with reservoirs. We quantified the difference between modeled and observed streamflows for one process-based and three statistical-transfer hydrologic models, none of which explicitly accounted for reservoir storage. Streamflow statistics representing low to high flows, seasonality, annual variability, and daily autocorrelation were examined at 1082 study basins across the conterminous USA. All models increasingly overpredict (or decreasingly underpredict) observed annual maximum flows with increasing storage. Correlations between absolute values of errors for low-flow statistics and storage are often larger in magnitude than those for signed errors—additional storage is associated with increases in model errors in both directions even when its overall effect in one direction is weak. The rate of increase in absolute values of model errors was nonlinear for most statistics. For low flows, model errors had a change point to larger errors at 48 days of reservoir storage (relative to long-term mean daily flow); mean and high flows had change points at 147 to 176 days. We present predicted-to-observed errors for nine streamflow statistics over a large range of reservoir storage to help modelers and users of modeled streamflow understand the amount of storage for which explicit reservoir modeling is needed.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗
USGS2007

Using a Geographic Information System to determine the relation between stream quality and geology in the Roberts Creek watershed, Clayton County, Iowa

A geographic information system (GIS) was used to determine the relation between the stream-water quality and underlying geology in Roberts Creek watershed, Clayton County, Iowa, for base-flow conditions during the spring and summer of 1988–90. Geologic, stream, basin and subbasin boundaries, and water-quality sampling-site coverages were created by digitizing available maps. A contour coverage was created from digital line-graph data. The areal extent of geologic units subcropping in each subbasin was quantified with GIS, and the results then were output and joined with the discharge and water-quality data for statistical analyses. Illustrations showing the geology of the study area and the results of the study were prepared using GIS. By using GIS and a statistical software package, a weak but statistically significant relation was found between the water temperature, pH, and nitrogen concentrations in Roberts Creek and the underlying geology during base-flow conditions.

Iowa↗
USGS2007

Hydrologic landscapes on the Delmarva Peninsula - Part 2: Estimates of base-flow nitrogen load to Chesapeake Bay

ABSTRACT: The relation between landscape characteristics and water chemistry on the Delmarva Peninsula can be determined through a principal-component analysis of basin characteristics. Two basin types were defined by factor scores: (1) well-drained basins, characterized by combinations of a low percentage of forest cover, a low percentage of poorly drained soil, and elevated channel slope; and (2) poorly drained basins, characterized by a combinations of an elevated percentage of forest cover, an elevated percentage of poorly drained soil, and low channel slopes. Results from base-flow sampling of 29 basins during spring 1991 indicate that water chemistry of the two basin types differ significantly. Concentrations of calcium, magnesium, potassium, alkalinity, chloride, and nitrate are elevated in well-drained basins, and specific conductance is elevated. Concentrations of aluminum, dissolved organic carbon, sodium, and silica are elevated in poorly drained basins whereas specific conductance is low. The chemical patterns found in well-drained basins can be attributed to the application of agricultural chemicals, and those in poorly drained basins can be attributed to ground-water flowpaths. These results indicate that basin types determined by a quantitative analysis of basin characteristics can be related statistically to differences in base-flow chemistry, and that the observed statistical differences can be related to major processes that affect water chemistry.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗
USGS2008

Comparison of blood aminotransferase methods for assessment of myopathy and hepatopathy in Florida manatees (Trichechus manatus latirostris)

Muscle injury is common in Florida manatees (Trichechus manatus latirostris). Plasma aspartate amino-transferase (AST) is frequently used to assess muscular damage in capture myopathy and traumatic injury. Therefore, accurate measurement of AST and alanine aminotransferase (ALT) is important in managed, free-ranging animals, as well as in those rehabilitating from injury. Activities of these enzymes, however, are usually not increased in manatees with either acute or chronic muscle damage, despite marked increases in plasma creatine kinase activity. It is hypothesized that this absence of response is due to apoenzymes in the blood not detected by commonly used veterinary assays. Addition of coenzyme pyridoxal-5-phosphate (P5P or vitamin B6) should, therefore, result in higher measured enzyme activities. The objective of this study was to determine the most accurate, precise, and diagnostically useful method for aminotransferase measurement in manatees that can be used in veterinary practices and diagnostic laboratories. Additionally, appropriate collection and storage techniques were assessed. The use of an optimized commercial wet chemical assay with 100 ??mol P5P resulted in a positive bias of measured enzyme activities in a healthy population of animals. However, AST and ALT were still much lower than that typically observed in domestic animals and should not be used alone in the assessment of capture myopathy and muscular trauma. Additionally, the dry chemistry analyzer, typically used in clinics, reported significantly higher and less precise AST and ALT activities with poor correlation to those measured with wet chemical methods found in diagnostic laboratories. Therefore, these results cannot be clinically compared. Overall, the optimized wet chemical method was the most precise and diagnostically useful measurement of aminotransferase in samples. Additionally, there was a statistically significant difference between paired serum and plasma measurement, indicating that separate reference intervals should be established for serum and plasma. Finally, storage of these enzymes at -70??C for 1 mo resulted in up to a 25% decrease in enzymatic activity in manatee plasma. Copyright 2008 by American Association of Zoo Veterinarians.

Journal of Zoo and Wildlife Medicine↗
USGS2011

Climate change, atmospheric rivers, and floods in California - a multimodel analysis of storm frequency and magnitude changes

Recent studies have documented the important role that “atmospheric rivers” (ARs) of concentrated near‐surface water vapor above the Pacific Ocean play in the storms and floods in California, Oregon, and Washington. By delivering large masses of warm, moist air (sometimes directly from the Tropics), ARs establish conditions for the kinds of high snowlines and copious orographic rainfall that have caused the largest historical storms. In many California rivers, essentially all major historical floods have been associated with AR storms. As an example of the kinds of storm changes that may influence future flood frequencies, the occurrence of such storms in historical observations and in a 7‐model ensemble of historical‐climate and projected future climate simulations is evaluated. Under an A2 greenhouse‐gas emissions scenario (with emissions accelerating throughout the 21st Century), average AR statistics do not change much in most climate models; however, extremes change notably. Years with many AR episodes increase, ARs with higher‐than‐historical water‐vapor transport rates increase, and AR storm‐temperatures increase. Furthermore, the peak season within which most ARs occur is commonly projected to lengthen, extending the flood‐hazard season. All of these tendencies could increase opportunities for both more frequent and more severe floods in California under projected climate changes.

California↗
USGS2007

Disruptions of stream sediment size and stability by lakes in mountain watersheds: Potential effects on periphyton biomass

The location of a stream reach relative to other landforms in a watershed is an important attribute. We hypothesized that lakes disrupt the frequency of finer, more mobile sediments and thereby change sediment transport processes such that benthic substrates are more stable (i.e., less mobile) below lakes than above lakes. In turn, we hypothesized that this reduced mobility would lead to greater periphyton biomass below lakes. We tested these hypotheses in study reaches above and below lakes in 3 mountain watersheds. To expand this comparison, we analyzed the relationship between sediment attributes and periphyton biomass in one watershed with and one watershed without a lake. We hypothesized that no clear pattern or change in sediment size or chlorophyll a (chl a) would be observed over a 3-km-long study reach without a lake. In contrast, we expected a clear discontinuity in both sediment size and chl a in a 7-km-long study reach interrupted by a lake. Average median sediment size (D50) was significantly larger (p < 0.01) in lake-outlet than lake-inlet reaches (41 mm vs 10 mm). Bed sediments in lake-outlet reaches were immobile during bankfull flows, whereas sediments at lake-inlet reaches were mobile during bankfull flows. Chlorophyll a was ???10x greater in lake-outlet reaches than in lake-inlet reaches, although this difference was not statistically significant (p = 0.17). The longitudinal analysis clearly showed geomorphic transitions in sediment size and mobility downstream of mountain lakes, and these geomorphic transitions might be associated with changes in periphyton biomass. Geomorphic transitions can alter sediment transport and should be considered in concert with other factors that are considered more commonly in benthic ecology, such as light, nutrients, and temperature. ?? 2007 by The North American Benthological Society.

Journal of the North American Benthological Societ↗
USGS2011

Stationarity: Wanted dead or alive?

Aligning engineering practice with natural process behavior would appear, on its face, to be a prudent and reasonable course of action. However, if we do not understand the long-term characteristics of hydroclimatic processes, how does one find the prudent and reasonable course needed for water management? We consider this question in light of three aspects of existing and unresolved issues affecting hydroclimatic variability and statistical inference: Hurst-Kolmogorov phenomena; the complications long-term persistence introduces with respect to statistical understanding; and the dependence of process understanding on arbitrary sampling choices. These problems are not easily addressed. In such circumstances, humility may be more important than physics; a simple model with well-understood flaws may be preferable to a sophisticated model whose correspondence to reality is uncertain.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗