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At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2007

Developments in seismic monitoring for risk reduction

This paper presents recent state-of-the-art developments to obtain displacements and drift ratios for seismic monitoring and damage assessment of buildings. In most cases, decisions on safety of buildings following seismic events are based on visual inspections of the structures. Real-time instrumental measurements using GPS or double integration of accelerations, however, offer a viable alternative. Relevant parameters, such as the type of connections and structural characteristics (including storey geometry), can be estimated to compute drifts corresponding to several pre-selected threshold stages of damage. Drift ratios determined from real-time monitoring can then be compared to these thresholds in order to estimate damage conditions drift ratios. This approach is demonstrated in three steel frame buildings in San Francisco, California. Recently recorded data of strong shaking from these buildings indicate that the monitoring system can be a useful tool in rapid assessment of buildings and other structures following an earthquake. Such systems can also be used for risk monitoring, as a method to assess performance-based design and analysis procedures, for long-term assessment of structural characteristics of a building, and as a possible long-term damage detection tool.

Journal of Risk Research↗
USGS1977

Use of a hybrid computer in engineering-seismology research

A hybrid computer is an important tool in the seismological research conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in support of the Energy Research and Development Administration nuclear explosion testing program at the Nevada Test Site and the U.S. Geological Survey Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program. The hybrid computer system, which employs both digital and analog computational techniques, facilitates efficient seismic data processing. Standard data processing operations include: (1) preview of dubbed magnetic tapes of data; (2) correction of data for instrument response; (3) derivation of displacement and acceleration time histories from velocity recordings; (4) extraction of peak-amplitude data; (5) digitization of time histories; (6) rotation of instrumental axes; (7) derivation of response spectra; and (8) derivation of relative transfer functions between recording sites. Catalog of time histories and response spectra of ground motion from nuclear explosions and earthquakes that have been processed by the hybrid computer are used in the Earthquake Hazard Research Program to evaluate the effects of source, propagation path, and site effects on recorded ground motion; to assess seismic risk; to predict system response; and to solve system design problems.

Journal of Research of the U.S. Geological Survey↗
USGS2005

Assessment of calcium status in Maine forests: Review and future projection

Forest harvesting and acidic deposition can cause substantial decreases in the calcium (Ca) inventory of forest soils if such losses are not replenished through mineral weathering, atmospheric deposition, or fertilization. The net balance between losses and gains defines the forest Ca status. Site-specific studies have measured Ca pools and fluxes in Maine forests, but no synthesis has been published. In this paper, I review the literature on forest Ca and assess the current status and potential future trends. Forest soils in Maine are currently at lesser risk of Ca depletion compared with many forest soils in the central and southeastern United States, because levels of acidic deposition and rates of Ca accumulation in trees are lower in Maine. The rate of Ca accumulation in trees is reduced in Maine as a result of lower growth rates and a higher proportion of conifer trees that require less Ca than hardwoods. However, field-scale biogeochemical studies in Maine and New Hampshire, and regional estimates of harvest removals and soil inventories coupled with low weathering estimates, indicate that Ca depletion is a realistic concern in Maine. The synthesis of site-specific and regional data for Maine in conjunction with the depletion measured directly in surrounding areas indicates that the Ca status of many forest soils in Maine is likely declining. Ca status could decrease further in the future if forest growth rates increase in response to climate trends and recovery from insect-induced mortality and excessive harvesting in recent years. Proposed climate change induced reductions in spruce and fir and increases in hardwoods would also increase the risk of Ca depletion. ?? 2005 NRC.

Canadian Journal of Forest Research↗
USGS2003

Environmental fate and effects of the lampricide TFM: a review

Use of 3-trifluoromethyl-4-nitrophenol (TFM) is limited geographically to the Great Lakes basin where it is the principal agent used in control of the sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus). It is clear from available data that TFM has effects on the environment, but the effects reported are transient. Individual organisms and aquatic communities return to pretreatment conditions after lampricide treatments have concluded. TFM is not persistent, is detoxified, and presents minimal long-term toxicological risk. TFM is relatively nontoxic to mammals. Treatment levels do not pose a threat to wildlife. However, TFM is an estrogen agonist and additional testing to define the nature and magnitude of this effect will likely be required. Because stream treatments are done on 3 to 5 year cycles, and exposures are limited to approximately 12 h, minimal risk to aquatic organisms is expected.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗
USGS2014

Volcanology: Lessons learned from Synthetic Aperture Radar imagery

Twenty years of continuous Earth observation by satellite SAR have resulted in numerous new insights into active volcanism, including a better understanding of subsurface magma storage and transport, deposition of volcanic materials on the surface, and the structure and development of volcanic edifices. This massive archive of data has resulted in fundamental leaps in our understanding of how volcanoes work – for example, identifying magma accumulation at supposedly quiescent volcanoes, even in remote areas or in the absence of ground-based data. In addition, global compilations of volcanic activity facilitate comparison of deformation behavior between different volcanic arcs and statistical evaluation of the strong link between deformation and eruption. SAR data are also increasingly used in timely hazard evaluation thanks to decreases in data latency and growth in processing and analysis techniques. The existing archive of SAR imagery is on the cusp of being enhanced by a new generation of satellite SAR missions, in addition to ground-based and airborne SAR systems, which will provide enhanced temporal and spatial resolution, broader geographic coverage, and improved availability of data to the scientific community. Now is therefore an opportune time to review the contributions of SAR imagery to volcano science, monitoring, and hazard mitigation, and to explore the future potential for SAR in volcanology. Provided that the ever-growing volume of SAR data can be managed effectively, we expect the future application of SAR data to expand from being a research tool for analyzing volcanic activity after the fact, to being a monitoring and research tool capable of imaging a wide variety of processes on different temporal and spatial scales as those processes are occurring. These data can then be used to develop new models of how volcanoes work and to improve quantitative forecasts of volcanic activity as a means of mitigating risk from future eruptions.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗
USGS2023

Bayesian hierarchical modeling for probabilistic estimation of tsunami amplitude from far-field earthquake sources

Evaluation of tsunami disaster risk for a coastal region requires reliable estimation of tsunami hazard, for example, wave amplitude close to the shore. Observed tsunami data are scarce and have poor spatial coverage, and for this reason probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) traditionally relies on numerical simulation of “synthetic” tsunami generation and propagation toward the coast. Such an approach has been extensively studied in the past and it is widely recognized as an important disaster-risk mitigation tool. PTHA can not only provide less uncertain and spatially coherent hazard estimates in comparison with classical empirical data analysis which is restricted at the tide gauge stations, but also local inundation information. In this paper, we explore a purely statistical alternative to traditional PTHA for evaluation of tsunami amplitude hazard. Here, we use tide gauge measurements of tsunami amplitude along the western United States, specifically California and Oregon, and develop a spatial Bayesian hierarchical model (BHM) to assess tsunami hazard from far-field earthquake sources at various recurrence intervals. The configuration of our model incorporates latent Gaussian fields that utilize information on the distance between tide gauges as well as on the continental shelf width, that is, a covariate linked to potential dissipative effects on wave energy as the tsunami travels over shallow water. Through our BHM, we produce spatially continuous probabilistic maps of far-field tsunami hazard which can aid comprehensive tsunami disaster risk reduction and management.

California, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2007

The relationship between tree growth patterns and likelihood of mortality: A study of two tree species in the Sierra Nevada

We examined mortality of Abies concolor (Gord. & Glend.) Lindl. (white fir) and Pinus lambertiana Dougl. (sugar pine) by developing logistic models using three growth indices obtained from tree rings: average growth, growth trend, and count of abrupt growth declines. For P. lambertiana , models with average growth, growth trend, and count of abrupt declines improved overall prediction (78.6% dead trees correctly classified, 83.7% live trees correctly classified) compared with a model with average recent growth alone (69.6% dead trees correctly classified, 67.3% live trees correctly classified). For A. concolor , counts of abrupt declines and longer time intervals improved overall classification (trees with DBH ≥20 cm: 78.9% dead trees correctly classified and 76.7% live trees correctly classified vs. 64.9% dead trees correctly classified and 77.9% live trees correctly classified; trees with DBH <20 cm: 71.6% dead trees correctly classified and 71.0% live trees correctly classified vs. 67.2% dead trees correctly classified and 66.7% live trees correctly classified). In general, count of abrupt declines improved live-tree classification. External validation of A. concolor models showed that they functioned well at stands not used in model development, and the development of size-specific models demonstrated important differences in mortality risk between understory and canopy trees. Population-level mortality-risk models were developed for A. concolor and generated realistic mortality rates at two sites. Our results support the contention that a more comprehensive use of the growth record yields a more robust assessment of mortality risk.

California↗
USGS2003

Environmental fate and effects of the lampricide bayluscide: a review

Bayluscide is an additive to TFM that increases the effectiveness of TFM as a lampricide. A review of the literature was undertaken to determine the environmental fate and effects of Bayluscide. Niclosamide (2', 5-dichloro-4'-nitrosalicylanilide), the active ingredient of Bayluscide, degrades rapidly in natural water and sediment systems, however, the rate of degradation is very slow in autoclaved samples. This difference suggests that degradation under laboratory conditions is dependent on microbial activity and hydrolysis plays a minor role in degradation of niclosamide. The major degradation product of niclosamide has been reported to be aminoniclosamide (2',5-dichloro-4'-aminosalicylanilide), which represented more than 50% of the residues extractable from sediments. Significantly more of the chemical is adsorbed to sediments with higher organic content and at lower pH's. The mobility of niclosamide in soil can be characterized as slight to medium; the estimated leaching distance would range from 0 to > 25 cm depending on the soil type and pH. The active ingredient of Bayluscide (niclosamide) is decomposed by ultra-violet light depending on the intensity and duration of the exposure. The uptake of residues by most invertebrates exposed to super(14)C-niclosamide is fairly rapid and equilibrium is reached within 24 h. About 90% of the accumulated residues were lost within 48 h after the organisms were transferred to clean flowing water. As with invertebrates, fish rapidly accumulate and eliminate residues of niclosamide. Three distinct residues were isolated from the extracts of edible fillet tissue; parent niclosamide, the glucuronide conjugate of niclosamide, and the sulfate ester of niclosamide. Aquatic plants and agricultural crops do not appear to be adversely affected at concentrations of Bayluscide used for lamprey or snail control. Mayflies (Hexagenia sp.). tend to be susceptible to TFM, but are relatively resistant to the effects of exposure to Bayluscide. Bayluscide was originally developed as a molluscicide to eliminate snails. Therefore, it is not surprising that mollusks are extremely sensitive to Bayluscide. Oral, dermal, and ocular administration of Bayluscide to mammals resulted in no clinical signs of systemic toxicity. Tests of the chronic effects of Bayluscide indicated that it is not mutagenic or carcinogenic. Bayluscide is not persistent in the environment; it breaks down in natural water and sediment systems through hydrolysis, photolysis, and microbial degradation. Given the limited use and tight control maintained by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service during applications of lampricides, Bayluscide presents minimal risk to human health and safety of the environment.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗
USGS2020

Magma intrusion and volatile ascent beneath Norris Geyser Basin, Yellowstone National Park

Recent activity has provided new insights into the causes of surface deformation in and around the Yellowstone Caldera, a topic that has been debated since the discovery of caldera floor uplift more than four decades ago. An episode of unusually rapid uplift (>15 cm/yr) centered near Norris Geyser Basin along the north caldera rim began in late 2013 and continued until a M w 4.9 earthquake on 30 March 2014; thereafter, uplift abruptly switched to subsidence. Uplift at rates of several centimeters per year resumed in 2016 and continued at least through the end of 2018. Modeling of Global Positioning System and interferometric synthetic aperture radar data suggests an evolving process of deep magma intrusion during 1996–2001 followed by volatile ascent and accumulation at shallow levels, perhaps as shallow as a few hundred meters depth. The depth of shallow volatile accumulation appears to have shallowed from the 2014 to the 2016 deformation episode, and frequent eruptions of Steamboat Geyser since March 2018 are likely a surface manifestation of this ongoing process. Hydrothermal explosion features are prominent in the Norris Geyser Basin area, and the apparent shallow nature of the volatile accumulation implies an increased risk of hydrothermal explosions.

Wyoming↗
USGS2014

Enterococcus phages as potential tool for identifying sewage inputs in the Great Lakes region

Bacteriophages are viruses living in bacteria that can be used as a tool to detect fecal contamination in surface waters around the world. However, the lack of a universal host strain makes them unsuitable for tracking fecal sources. We evaluated the suitability of two newly isolated Enterococcus host strains (ENT-49 and ENT-55) capable for identifying sewage contamination in impacted waters by targeting phages specific to these hosts. Both host strains were isolated from wastewater samples and identified as E. faecium by 16S rRNA gene sequencing. Occurrence of Enterococcus phages was evaluated in sewage samples ( n = 15) from five wastewater treatment plants and in fecal samples from twenty-two species of wild and domesticated animals (individual samples; n = 22). Levels of Enterococcus phages, F + coliphages, Escherichia coli and enterococci were examined from four rivers, four beaches, and three harbors. Enterococcus phages enumeration was at similar levels (Mean = 6.72 Log PFU/100 mL) to F + coliphages in all wastewater samples, but were absent from all non-human fecal sources tested. The phages infecting Enterococcus spp. and F + coliphages were not detected in the river samples (detection threshold < 10 PFU/100 mL), but were present in the beach and harbor samples (range = 1.83 to 2.86 Log PFU/100 mL). Slightly higher concentrations (range = 3.22 to 3.69 Log MPN/100 mL) of E. coli and enterococci when compared to F + coliphages and Enterococcus phages, were observed in the river, beach and harbor samples. Our findings suggest that the bacteriophages associated with these particular Enterococcus host strains offer potentially sensitive and human-source specific indicators of enteric pathogen risk.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗
USGS2008

Volcanic risk perception of young people in the urban areas of Vesuvius: Comparisons with other volcanic areas and implications for emergency management

More than 600 000 people are exposed to volcanic risk in the urban areas near the volcano, Vesuvius, and may need to be evacuated if there is renewed volcanic activity. The success of a future evacuation will strongly depend on the level of risk perception and preparedness of the at-risk communities during the current period of quiescence. The volcanic risk perception and preparedness of young people is of particular importance because hazard education programs in schools have been shown to increase the clarity of risk perception and students often share their knowledge with their parents. In order to evaluate young people's risk perception and preparedness for a volcanic crisis, a multiple choice questionnaire was distributed to 400 high-school students in three municipalities located close to the volcano. The overall results suggest that despite a 60-year period of quiescence at Vesuvius, the interviewed students have an accurate perception of the level of volcanic risk. On the other hand, the respondents demonstrate a clear lack of understanding of volcanic processes and their related hazards. Also, the interviewed students show high levels of fear, poor perceived ability to protect themselves from the effects of a future eruption, and insufficient knowledge of the National Emergency Plan for Vesuvian Area (NEPVA). The latter result suggests that in comparison with volcanic crises in other regions, during a future eruption of Vesuvius, there may not be enough time to educate the large number of people living near the volcano about how to appropriately respond. The inadequate risk education and preparedness of respondents implies that a strong effort is needed to improve communication strategies in order to facilitate successful evacuations. Therefore, it is important to take advantage of the present period of quiescence at Vesuvius to improve the accuracy of risk perception of youth in local communities. ?? 2008.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗
USGS2018

Selenium, mercury, and their molar ratios in sportfishes from drinking water reservoirs

Mercury (Hg) bioaccumulates in aquatic ecosystems and may pose a risk to humans who consume fish. Selenium (Se) has the ability to reduce Hg toxicity, but the current guidance for human consumption of fish is based on Hg concentration alone. The purpose of the present study was to examine the relationship between Se and Hg in freshwater sportfish, for which there is a paucity of existing data. We collected three species of fish from different trophic positions from two drinking water reservoirs in central North Carolina, USA, to assess Hg and Se concentrations in relation to fish total length and to compare two measures of the protective ability of Se, the Se:Hg molar ratio and Se health benefit value (HBV Se ), to current guidance for Hg. According to the Se:Hg molar ratio, all of the low trophic position fish sampled and the middle trophic position fish sampled from one of the reservoirs were safe for consumption. The same number of fish were considered safe using the HBV Se . More fish were deemed unsafe when using the Se:Hg molar ratio and HBV Se than were considered unsafe when using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) Hg threshold. These findings suggest that the measures of Se protection may be unnecessarily conservative or that the USEPA Hg threshold may not be sufficiently protective of human health, especially the health of sensitive populations like pregnant or nursing mothers and young children. Future examination of the Se:Hg molar ratio and HBV Se from a variety of fish tissue samples would help refine the accuracy of these measures so that they may be appropriately utilized in ecological and human health risk assessment.

International Journal of Environmental Research an↗
USGS2023

Assessing contaminants of emerging concern in the Great Lakes Ecosystem: A decade of method development and practical application

Assessing the ecological risk of contaminants in the field typically involves consideration of a complex mixture of compounds which may or may not be detected via instrumental analyses. Further, there are insufficient data to predict the potential biological effects of many detected compounds, leading to their being characterized as contaminants of emerging concern (CECs). Over the past several years, advances in chemistry, toxicology, and bioinformatics have resulted in a variety of concepts and tools that can enhance the pragmatic assessment of the ecological risk of CECs. The present Focus article describes a 10+- year multiagency effort supported through the U.S. Great Lakes Restoration Initiative to assess the occurrence and implications of CECs in the North American Great Lakes. State-of-the-science methods and models were used to evaluate more than 700 sites in about approximately 200 tributaries across lakes Ontario, Erie, Huron, Michigan, and Superior, sometimes on multiple occasions. Studies featured measurement of up to 500 different target analytes in different environmental matrices, coupled with evaluation of biological effects in resident species, animals from in situ and laboratory exposures, and in vitro systems. Experimental taxa included birds, fish, and a variety of invertebrates, and measured endpoints ranged from molecular to apical responses. Data were integrated and evaluated using a diversity of curated knowledgebases and models with the goal of producing actionable insights for risk assessors and managers charged with evaluating and mitigating the effects of CECs in the Great Lakes. This overview is based on research and data captured in approximately about 90 peer-reviewed journal articles and reports, including approximately about 30 appearing in a virtual issue comprised of highlighted papers published in Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry or Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management . Environ Toxicol Chem 2023;42:2506–2518. © 2023 SETAC. This article has been contributed to by U.S. Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry↗
USGS1995

Chronic bioassays of rainbow trout fry with compounds representative of contaminants in Great Lakes fish

To evaluate the hazard of organic compounds detected in Great Lakes fish by gas chromatography/mass spectrometry, we tested compounds representative of heterocyclic nitrogen compounds, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, and cyclic alkanes and alkenes. Sixty-day bioassays on the effects of nicotine, phenanthrene, pinane, and pinene on the behavior, growth, and survival of rainbow trout fry, Oncorhynchus mykiss , were conducted in a large, constant-flow, temperature-controlled water system. The following 60-day LCSO's were determined (mg/L): nicotine 5.0, phenanthrene 0.2, pinane 0.8, and pinene 1.2. Values of lowest observed effects level (LOEL) and no observed effects level (NOEL) showed that growth was generally as sensitive an endpoint as behavior and was more sensitive than time of swim-up. The 60-day LC50 values for rainbow trout were compared with earlier acute bioassays with Daphnia pulex and rainbow trout and chronic bioassays with D.pulex conducted at the Great Lakes Science Center. Rainbow trout fry were less sensitive than daphnids in all tests, indicating that toxicity tests with daphnids should be protective of salmonid fry for these types of compounds. The results for representative compounds indicate that these classes of compounds should be included in aquatic risk assessments at sites in the Great Lakes.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗
USGS2022

#TheSmoreYouKnow and #emergencycute: A conceptual model on the use of humor by science agencies during crisis to create connection, empathy, and compassion

Studies from a variety of disciplines reveal that humor can be a useful method to reduce stress and increase compassion, connection, and empathy between agencies and people they serve during times of crisis. Despite this growing evidence base, humor's use during a geohazard (earthquake, volcanoes , landslides, and tsunami) to aid scientific agencies' crisis communication response has been rarely studied. A broad literature review of humor in crisis and an exploratory examination of several case studies reveal that scientific organizations, specifically those that respond to geohazards, can harness the power of humor to help create connection and empathy with the publics they seek to serve. We find evidence that supports our argument that the use of humor acknowledges a shared human experience, reducing the barriers between public officials, scientists, and the people most impacted by crisis. Public statements made by scientists and public officials during the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) response to the Kīlauea eruption in 2018 in Hawai'i, United States, and GNS Science/GeoNet (GeoNet) response to the M7.8 Kaikōura/North Hurunui earthquake in 2016 in Aotearoa New Zealand, are used to inform the development of this conceptual model. We then posit a conceptual model which unifies concepts from the literature with our case studies to provide potential guidelines for those crisis communicators working for science agencies on how best to use humor to help people cope during times of crisis. This model can be further tested for future research to determine its effectiveness and utility for scientific agencies responding to geological crises.

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction↗
USGS2019

Estimating spatial–temporal differences in Chinook salmon outmigration survival with habitat- and predation-related covariates

Low survival rates of Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) smolts in California’s Central Valley have been attributed to multiple biological and physical factors, but it is not clear which factors have the largest impact. We used 5 years of acoustic telemetry data for 1709 late-fall Chinook salmon smolts to evaluate the effect of habitat- and predation-related covariates on outmigration survival through the Sacramento River. Using a Cormack–Jolly–Seber mark–recapture model, we estimated survival rates both as a function of covariates (covariate model) and as a function of river location and release year (spatial–temporal model). Our covariate model was overwhelmingly supported as the preferred model based on model selection criteria, suggesting the covariates adequately replicated spatial and temporal patterns in smolt survival. The covariates in the selected model included individual fish covariates, habitat-specific covariates, and temporally variable physical conditions. The most important covariate affecting salmon survival was flow. We describe the importance of these parameters in the context of juvenile salmon predation risk and suggest that additional research on predator distribution and density could improve model estimates.

California↗
USGS2016

Population viability analysis for endangered Roanoke logperch

A common strategy for recovering endangered species is ensuring that populations exceed the minimum viable population size (MVP), a demographic benchmark that theoretically ensures low long-term extinction risk. One method of establishing MVP is population viability analysis, a modeling technique that simulates population trajectories and forecasts extinction risk based on a series of biological, environmental, and management assumptions. Such models also help identify key uncertainties that have a large influence on extinction risk. We used stochastic count-based simulation models to explore extinction risk, MVP, and the possible benefits of alternative management strategies in populations of Roanoke logperch Percina rex , an endangered stream fish. Estimates of extinction risk were sensitive to the assumed population growth rate and model type, carrying capacity, and catastrophe regime (frequency and severity of anthropogenic fish kills), whereas demographic augmentation did little to reduce extinction risk. Under density-dependent growth, the estimated MVP for Roanoke logperch ranged from 200 to 4200 individuals, depending on the assumed severity of catastrophes. Thus, depending on the MVP threshold, anywhere from two to all five of the logperch populations we assessed were projected to be viable. Despite this uncertainty, these results help identify populations with the greatest relative extinction risk, as well as management strategies that might reduce this risk the most, such as increasing carrying capacity and reducing fish kills. Better estimates of population growth parameters and catastrophe regimes would facilitate the refinement of MVP and extinction-risk estimates, and they should be a high priority for future research on Roanoke logperch and other imperiled stream-fish species.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management↗
USGS2024

Viability modeling for decision support with limited data: A lizard case study

Plateau spot-tailed earless lizards, Holbrookia lacerata, are a species of ground lizard in central Texas that are under review for listing as endangered under the US Endangered Species Act, but heretofore no predictive models of population dynamics or viability have been developed. We used limited available data and published demographic rates in a PVA model to predict future status of these lizards under parametric and ecological uncertainty and temporal variability. Even in cases where data are sparse and life history information are limited, viability models can help clarify the consequences of management choices given the uncertainty. Our model predicted that on average populations will decline in in the future. Quasi-extinction probability was low 20 years into the future but up to 0.60. Extinction risk was highly dependent on the road mortality effect and the proportion of the population exposed to roadways, both of which are currently uncertain quantities. Despite these unknowns, our model enables managers to consider the future abundance and extinction risk for the species and make decisions about management to project the populations and also identifies key uncertainties for future research and monitoring.

Texas↗