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At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2018

A review of coastal management approaches to support the integration of ecological and human community planning for climate change

The resilience of socio-ecological systems to sea level rise, storms and flooding can be enhanced when coastal habitats are used as natural infrastructure. Grey infrastructure has long been used for coastal flood protection but can lead to unintended negative impacts. Natural infrastructure often provides similar services as well as added benefits that support short- and long-term biological, cultural, social, and economic goals. While natural infrastructure is becoming more widespread in practice, it often represents a relatively small fraction within portfolios of coastal risk-reducing strategies compared to more traditional grey infrastructure. This study provides a comprehensive review of how natural infrastructure is being used along the United States Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean coasts related to four habitats – tidal marshes, beaches and barrier islands, mangroves, and biogenic reefs. We compare information on the benefits, opportunities and challenges of implementing natural, grey and hybrid infrastructure in the coastal zone. In addition, we present a suite of actions to increase information and reduce uncertainty so that coastal mangers and planners are aware of the full suite of options for restoration, conservation and planning that maximize ecosystem services over short- and long-term planning horizons.

Journal of Coastal Conservation↗
USGS2011

Sea-level rise and landscape change influence mangrove encroachment onto marsh in the Ten Thousand Islands region of Florida, USA

The Ten Thousand Islands region of southwestern Florida, USA is a major feeding and resting destination for breeding, migrating, and wintering birds. Many species of waterbirds rely specifically on marshes as foraging habitat, making mangrove encroachment a concern for wildlife managers. With the alteration of freshwater flow and sea-level rise trends for the region, mangroves have migrated upstream into traditionally salt and brackish marshes, mirroring similar descriptions around the world. Aside from localized freezes in some years, very little seems to be preventing mangrove encroachment. We mapped changes in mangrove stand boundaries from the Gulf of Mexico inland to the northern boundary of Ten Thousand Islands National Wildlife Refuge (TTINWR) from 1927 to 2005, and determined the area of mangroves to be approximately 7,281 hectares in 2005, representing an 1,878 hectare increase since 1927. Overall change represents an approximately 35% increase in mangrove coverage on TTINWR over 78 years. Sea-level rise is likely the primary driver of this change; however, the construction of new waterways facilitates the dispersal of mangrove propagules into new areas by extending tidal influence, exacerbating encroachment. Reduced volume of freshwater delivery to TTINWR via overland flow and localized rainfall may influence the balance between marsh and mangrove as well, potentially offering some options to managers interested in conserving marsh over mangrove.

Florida↗
USGS2013

Mapping risk for nest predation on a barrier island

Barrier islands and coastal beach systems provide nesting habitat for marine and estuarine turtles. Densely settled coastal areas may subsidize nest predators. Our purpose was to inform conservation by providing a greater understanding of habitat-based risk factors for nest predation, for an estuarine turtle. We expected that habitat conditions at predated nests would differ from random locations at two spatial extents. We developed and validated an island-wide model for the distribution of predated Diamondback terrapin nests using locations of 198 predated nests collected during exhaustive searches at Fisherman Island National Wildlife Refuge , USA. We used aerial photographs to identify all areas of possible nesting habitat and searched each and surrounding environments for nests, collecting location and random-point microhabitat data. We built models for the probability of finding a predated nest using an equal number of random points and validated them with a reserve set ( N  = 67). Five variables in 9 a priori models were used and the best selected model (AIC weight 0.98) reflected positive associations with sand patches near marshes and roadways. Model validation had an average capture rate of predated nests of 84.14 % (26.17–97.38 %, Q1 77.53 %, median 88.07 %, Q3 95.08 %). Microhabitat selection results suggest that nests placed at the edges of sand patches adjacent to upland shrub/forest and marsh systems are vulnerable to predation. Forests and marshes provide cover and alternative resources for predators and roadways provide access; a suggestion is to focus nest protection efforts on the edges of dunes, near dense vegetation and roads.

Virginia↗
USGS2010

Islands at bay: Rising seas, eroding islands, and waterbird habitat loss in Chesapeake Bay (USA)

Like many resources in the Chesapeake Bay region of the U.S., many waterbird nesting populations have suffered over the past three to four decades. In this study, historic information for the entire Bay and recent results from the Tangier Sound region were evaluated to illustrate patterns of island erosion and habitat loss for 19 breeding species of waterbirds. Aerial imagery and field data collected in the nesting season were the primary sources of data. From 1993/1994 to 2007/2008, a group of 15 islands in Tangier Sound, Virginia were reduced by 21% in area, as most of their small dunes and associated vegetation and forest cover were lost to increased washovers. Concurrently, nesting American black ducks ( Anas rubripes) declined by 66% , wading birds (herons-egrets) by 51%, gulls by 72%, common terns (Sterna hirundo) by 96% and black skimmers ( Rynchops niger ) by about 70% in this complex. The declines noted at the larger Bay-wide scale suggest that this study area maybe symptomatic of a systemic limitation of nesting habitat for these species. The island losses noted in the Chesapeake have also been noted in other Atlantic U.S. coastal states. Stabilization and/or restoration of at least some of the rapidly eroding islands at key coastal areas are critical to help sustain waterbird communities.

Virginia↗
USGS2016

Response and resilience of Spartina alterniflora to sudden dieback

We measured an array of biophysical and spectral variables to evaluate the response and recovery of Spartina alterniflora to a sudden dieback event in spring and summer 2004 within a low marsh in coastal Virginia, USA. S. alterniflora is a foundation species, whose loss decreases ecosystem services and potentiates ecosystem state change. Long-term records of the potential environmental drivers of dieback such as precipitation and tidal inundation did not evidence any particular anomalies, although Hurricane Isabel in fall 2003 may have been related to dieback. Transects were established across the interface between the dieback area and apparently healthy areas of marsh. Plant condition was classified based on ground cover within transects as dieback, intermediate and healthy. Numerous characteristics of S. alterniflora culms within each condition class were assessed including biomass, morphology and spectral attributes associated with photosynthetic pigments. Plants demonstrated evidence of stress in 2004 and 2005 beyond areas of obvious dieback and resilience at a multi-year scale. Resilience of the plants was evident in recovery of ground cover and biomass largely within 3 y, although a small remnant of dieback persisted for 8 y. Culms surviving within the dieback and areas of intermediate impact had modified morphological traits and spectral response that reflected stress. These morphometric and spectral differences among plant cover condition classes serve as guidelines for monitoring of dieback initiation, effects and subsequent recovery. Although a number of environmental and biotic parameters were assessed relative to causation, the reason for this particular dieback remains largely unknown, however.

Virginia↗
USGS2019

A rapid assessment method for ground layer coastal vegetation

We aim to test a rapid ecological assessment method to monitor regenerating coastal vegetation without sacrificing accuracy. We estimated species frequency in vegetation plots using traditional point intercept methods. We also tested a rapid, digital method to take high-resolution digital photographs of plots. We navigated among plot locations using a sub-meter Differential Global Positioning System instead of using permanent plot markers, and analyzed plot photographs in a point intercept manner (i.e., grid) in Geographic Information Systems software. We assessed species frequency in 52 permanent plots using traditional and digital methods. Traditional methods required 39.2 min per plot and digital methods required 4.6 min per plot. Estimates of frequency from traditional methods were substantially higher than those from digital methods for permanent plots, so we used an independent assessment of vegetation coverage to calibrate the utility of digital methods. A logistic regression equation can be used to compare historical traditional estimates to those collected digitally. Digital point intercept methods were successfully used for rapid ecological assessment. The primary advantages of digital methods include overwhelming efficiency compared to traditional methods, a resultant increase in sample size, and the ability to recover more accurate estimates of species frequency. Disadvantages of digital methods include a restriction of use for ground layer vegetation and positional inaccuracies introduced through sub-meter navigation. While traditional methods are less accurate in estimating species frequency, they are ideal for capturing accurate temporal trends in vegetation growth since they rely upon the use of permanent plot markers.

Journal of Coastal Conservation↗
USGS2021

Stormwater systems as a source of marine debris: A case study from the Mediterranean coast of Israel

Drainage (or stormwater) systems are a potential source of marine debris. Approximately 67 km (33%) of the land along the Mediterranean coast of Israel is considered urban, covered by concrete and asphalt. The purpose of the present pilot study was to determine the composition of the solid waste in a drainage system and evaluate to what extent municipal sources contribute to marine debris. We sampled the waste in Netanya, a medium-size city (245,000 residents) on the central Mediterranean coast of Israel. Samples were taken from seven street stormwater receptacles prior to the first significant rain and then on the beach near a drainage outlet, a few hours after this substantial rain. In terms of composition of the debris, paper, cigarette butts, and sanitary items made up a higher proportion of the drainage system debris than those items did on the beach. In contrast, single-use items, polystyrene pieces, bottle caps, and plastic drinking bottles composed more of the debris on the beaches compared to the debris in the drainage system. Overall, we found that municipal stormwater systems contribute significant amounts of solid waste to marine debris on Israeli beaches. Preventing the waste from reaching the streets might help reduce marine debris on the beaches, especially at the beginning of the rainy season. There are multiple solutions, but all will require creativity and resources and constant maintenance. Educating the public to prevent disposal of solid waste items in the street is also important as a way to reduce terrestrial as well as marine debris.

Journal of Coastal Conservation↗
USGS2022

Tidally-driven gas exchange in beaches: Implications for sea turtle nest success

The success of individual sea turtle nests is influenced by nest location on the beach and the resulting incubation environment. Several abiotic factors affect nest incubation, and thus nest success, but tides and gas exchange are two of the most important. The effects of tides on nest success have been well documented in regard to overwash and inundation events. However, the possible effect of tidally-driven gas exchange has received little attention. The incursion and retreat of the saltwater wedge may cause substantial movement of gases through the beach during the tidal cycle. This study quantifies the differences in tidally-driven gas exchange among beach types and shoreline elevation levels. Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) efflux was used as a means of measuring gas movement through the beach to examine tidal effects across different beach zones and among different beach types. CO 2 efflux was measured throughout the tidal cycle at three distinct beaches (accreting, eroding, and nourished) at Cape San Blas, Florida. There was a general pattern of CO 2 efflux rising and falling throughout the tidal cycle on each beach and a difference in the CO 2 efflux observed among beaches and beach zones. Efflux patterns at the nourished and eroding beaches were similar, but the nourished beach exhibited a decreased and dampened CO 2 efflux pattern throughout the course of the tidal cycle. Analyses of the hatchling turtle emergence success data from 2011 to 2014 for the three beaches found that emergence success differed among the three beaches. The highest emergence success was on the nourished beach, which exhibited a relatively consistent efflux pattern. These results suggest that tidally-driven gas exchange may have implications on nest incubation and survival and are a consideration in beach restoration management and best practices for coastline conservation.

Florida↗
USGS2019

Evidence for conservative transport of dissolved organic carbon in major river basins in the Gulf of Maine Watershed

Transport and fate of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in rivers are important aspects of the carbon cycle and the critical linkage between terrestrial, aquatic, and marine systems. Recent studies have quantified fluvial export to the marine environment in many systems, but in-stream losses of DOC are poorly constrained. This study compares DOC yields (kg C/ha) between the area-weighted averages of several tributaries within larger watersheds with the DOC yields of the larger watersheds to gain insight on in-stream losses in larger river systems. Four large watersheds, 22 tributaries to those watersheds, and 5 additional main stem locations in Maine were studied during 1 April to 15 November in 2011 through 2013. There were no significant differences in the area-weighted average DOC yield of the tributaries and the larger watersheds indicating little net in-stream loss in the main stems of the larger rivers. It is unlikely that inputs of DOC from un-gauged areas compensated for losses from gauged tributaries based on similarity in DOC yield longitudinally along the main stems of two of the rivers. In addition, wetland abundance, which is associated with higher DOC yield in this environment, did not consistently increase from tributaries to the larger watershed or longitudinally along the main stems. This geographic distribution of wetlands therefore also indicates that it is unlikely that inputs of DOC from un-gauged areas compensated for losses from gauged tributaries. These findings suggest that in-stream losses of DOC in these larger river systems are minimal and that the vast majority of DOC in major rivers in Maine is transported conservatively to the coastal ocean.

Maine↗
USGS2017

Estimating occurrence and detection probabilities for stream-breeding salamanders in the Gulf Coastal Plain

Large gaps exist in our knowledge of the ecology of stream-breeding plethodontid salamanders in the Gulf Coastal Plain. Data describing where these salamanders are likely to occur along environmental gradients, as well as their likelihood of detection, are important for the prevention and management of amphibian declines. We used presence/absence data from leaf litter bag surveys and a hierarchical Bayesian multispecies single-season occupancy model to estimate the occurrence of five species of plethodontids across reaches in headwater streams in the Gulf Coastal Plain. Average detection probabilities were high (range = 0.432–0.942) and unaffected by sampling covariates specific to the use of litter bags (i.e., bag submergence, sampling season, in-stream cover). Estimates of occurrence probabilities differed substantially between species (range = 0.092–0.703) and were influenced by the size of the upstream drainage area and by the maximum proportion of the reach that dried. The effects of these two factors were not equivalent across species. Our results demonstrate that hierarchical multispecies models successfully estimate occurrence parameters for both rare and common stream-breeding plethodontids. The resulting models clarify how species are distributed within stream networks, and they provide baseline values that will be useful in evaluating the conservation statuses of plethodontid species within lotic systems in the Gulf Coastal Plain.

Journal of Herpetology↗
USGS2010

Spatial models of Northern Bobwhite populations for conservation planning

Since 1980, northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) range-wide populations declined 3.9% annually. Within the West Gulf Coastal Plain Bird Conservation Region in the south-central United States, populations of this quail species have declined 6.8% annually. These declines sparked calls for land use change and prompted implementation of various conservation practices. However, to effectively reverse these declines and restore northern bobwhite to their former population levels, habitat conservation and management efforts must target establishment and maintenance of sustainable populations. To provide guidance for conservation and restoration of habitat capable of supporting sustainable northern bobwhite populations in the West Gulf Coastal Plain, we modeled their spatial distribution using landscape characteristics derived from 1992 National Land Cover Data and bird detections, from 1990 to 1994, along 10-stop Breeding Bird Survey route segments. Four landscape metrics influenced detections of northern bobwhite: detections were greater in areas with more grassland and increased aggregation of agricultural lands, but detections were reduced in areas with increased density of land cover edge and grassland edge. Using these landscape metrics, we projected the abundance and spatial distribution of northern bobwhite populations across the entire West Gulf Coastal Plain. Predicted populations closely approximated abundance estimates from a different cadre of concurrently collected data but model predictions did not accurately reflect bobwhite detections along species-specific call-count routes in Arkansas and Louisiana. Using similar methods, we also projected northern bobwhite population distribution circa 1980 based on Land Use Land Cover data and bird survey data from 1976 to 1984. We compared our 1980 spatial projections with our spatial estimate of 1992 populations to identify areas of population change. Additionally, we used our projection of the spatial distribution and abundance of bobwhite to predict areas of population sustainability. Our projections of population change and sustainability provide guidance for targeting habitat conservation and rehabilitation efforts for restoration of northern bobwhite populations in the West Gulf Coastal Plain.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗
USGS2014

A mapping and monitoring assessment of the Philippines' mangrove forests from 1990 to 2010

Information on the present condition and spatiotemporal dynamics of mangrove forests is needed for land-change studies and integrated natural resources planning and management. Although several national mangrove estimates for the Philippines exist, information is unavailable at sufficient spatial and thematic detail for change analysis. Historical and contemporary mangrove distribution maps of the Philippines for 1990 and 2010 were prepared at nominal 30-m spatial resolution using Landsat satellite data. Image classification was performed using a supervised decision tree classification approach. Additionally, decadal land-cover change maps from 1990 to 2010 were prepared to depict changes in mangrove area. Total mangrove area decreased 10.5% from 1990 to 2010. Comparison of estimates produced from this study with selected historical mangrove area estimates revealed that total mangrove area decreased by approximately half (51.8%) from 1918 to 2010. This study provides the most current and reliable data regarding the Philippines mangrove area and spatial distribution and delineates where and when mangrove change has occurred in recent decades. The results from this study are useful for developing conservation strategies, biodiversity loss mitigation efforts, and future monitoring and analysis.

Journal of Coastal Research↗
USGS2011

Status and distribution of the Kittlitz's murrelet Brachyramphus brevirostris in Kenai Fjords, Alaska

The Kittlitz's Murrelet Brachyramphus brevirostris is a candidate species for listing under the US Endangered Species Act because of its apparent declines within core population areas of coastal Alaska. During the summers of 2006-2008, we conducted surveys in marine waters adjacent to Kenai Fjords National Park, Alaska, to estimate the current population size of Kittlitz's and Marbled murrelets B. marmoratus and examine seasonal variability in distribution within coastal fjords. We also evaluated historical data to estimate trend. Based on an average of point estimates, we find the recent population (95% CI) of Kittlitz's Murrelet to be 716 (353-1080) individuals, that of Marbled Murrelet to be 6690 (5427-7953) individuals, and all Brachyramphus murrelets combined to number 8186 (6978-9393) birds. Within-season density estimates showed Kittlitz's Murrelets generally increased between June and July, but dispersed rapidly by August, while Marbled Murrelets generally increased throughout the summer. Trends in Kittlitz's and Marbled murrelet populations were difficult to assess with confidence. Methods for counting or sampling murrelets varied in early decades of study, while in later years there is uncertainty due to highly variable counts among years, which may be due in part to timing of surveys relative to the spring bloom in coastal waters of the Gulf of Alaska.

Marine Ornithology: Journal of Seabird Research an↗
USGS2017

Post-breeding migration and connectivity of red knots in the Western Atlantic

Red knots ( Calidris canutus rufa ) have 3 distinct nonbreeding regions: 1 in the southeastern United States and Caribbean, another on the northeast coast of Brazil in the Maranhão region, and a third along the Patagonian coasts of Chile and Argentina. Effective conservation and recovery of this threatened long-distance migrant will require knowledge of population structure, migration ecology, and abundance and distribution throughout the annual cycle. We conducted a stopover population and biogeographic assessment of knots at the Altamaha River Delta, Georgia, an important stopover area in the southeastern United States. We estimated stopover population size and stopover duration during post-breeding migration in 2011 at the Altamaha study area using mark-resight data, and we inferred nonbreeding regions for this stopover population using stable isotope ratios of carbon and nitrogen in feathers, and observations (sightings and captures) during boreal winter from across the hemisphere. With an integrated Bayesian analysis of all these data, we also estimated the number of birds in the southeastern United States and northern Brazil during boreal winter. For mark-resight analyses in Georgia, we made observations of marked individuals during 14 weeks from early August to early November 2011 and detected 814 individually marked birds. We used the Jolly-Seber mark-recapture model and estimated the southbound passage population at approximately 23,400 red knots. In ongoing studies elsewhere, isotope samples were collected from 175 (21%) of the 814 birds detected in our study, and ≥1 sighting or capture record during boreal winter was located in data repositories for 659 birds (81%). Isotopic signatures and boreal winter records indicate that the majority (82–96%) of the birds that stopped at the Altamaha Delta spend the boreal winter in the northern part of the nonbreeding range (southeast USA, Caribbean, and northern Brazil). Knots migrating to the southeastern United States, Caribbean, or Brazil remained on the Altamaha Delta for 42 days, whereas birds migrating to Tierra del Fuego remained only 21 days. Combining our estimate of the Altamaha stopover population size (23,400 birds) and the estimated proportion in the northern nonbreeding region (82–96%), we derived a minimum estimate of the number of knots in the southeastern United States, Caribbean, and northern South America during the boreal winter: approximately 20,800 knots, of which approximately 10,400 knots occupy the southeastern United States and 5,400 occupy Brazil. Our results provide additional evidence that coastal Georgia is an important migration area for red knots, and provide information about population structure and migratory connectivity that will be valuable for conservation planning.

Georgia↗
USGS2014

Analysis of projected water availability with current basin management plan, Pajaro Valley, California

The projection and analysis of the Pajaro Valley Hydrologic Model (PVHM) 34 years into the future using MODFLOW with the Farm Process (MF-FMP) facilitates assessment of potential future water availability. The projection is facilitated by the integrated hydrologic model, MF-FMP that fully couples the simulation of the use and movement of water from precipitation, streamflow, runoff, groundwater flow, and consumption by natural and agricultural vegetation throughout the hydrologic system at all times. MF-FMP allows for more complete analysis of conjunctive-use water-resource systems than previously possible with MODFLOW by combining relevant aspects of the landscape with the groundwater and surface-water components. This analysis is accomplished using distributed cell-by-cell supply-constrained and demand-driven components across the landscape within “water-balance subregions” (WBS) comprised of one or more model cells that can represent a single farm, a group of farms, watersheds, or other hydrologic or geopolitical entities. Analysis of conjunctive use would be difficult without embedding the fully coupled supply-and-demand into a fully coupled simulation, and are difficult to estimate a priori. The analysis of projected supply and demand for the Pajaro Valley indicate that the current water supply facilities constructed to provide alternative local sources of supplemental water to replace coastal groundwater pumpage, but may not completely eliminate additional overdraft. The simulation of the coastal distribution system (CDS) replicates: 20 miles of conveyance pipeline, managed aquifer recharge and recovery (MARR) system that captures local runoff, and recycled-water treatment facility (RWF) from urban wastewater, along with the use of other blend water supplies, provide partial relief and substitution for coastal pumpage (aka in-lieu recharge). The effects of these Basin Management Plan (BMP) projects were analyzed subject to historical climate variations and assumptions of 2009 urban water demand and land use. Water supplied directly from precipitation, and indirectly from reuse, captured local runoff, and groundwater is necessary but inadequate to satisfy agricultural demand without coastal and regional storage depletion that facilitates seawater intrusion. These facilities reduce potential seawater intrusion by about 45% with groundwater levels in the four regions served by the CDS projected to recover to levels a few feet above sea level. The projected recoveries are not high enough to prevent additional seawater intrusion during dry-year periods or in the deeper aquifers where pumpage is greater. While these facilities could reduce coastal pumpage by about 55% of the historical 2000–2009 pumpage for these regions, and some of the water is delivered in excess of demand, other coastal regions continue to create demands on coastal pumpage that will need to be replaced to reduce seawater intrusion. In addition, inland urban and agricultural demands continue to sustain water levels below sea level causing regional landward gradients that also drive seawater intrusion. Seawater intrusion is reduced by about 45% but it supplies about 55% of the recovery of groundwater levels in the coastal regions served by the CDS. If economically feasible, water from summer agricultural runoff and tile-drain returnflows could be another potential local source of water that, if captured and reused, could offset the imbalance between supply and demand as well as reducing discharge of agricultural runoff into the National Marine Sanctuary of Monterey Bay. A BMP update (2012) identifies projects and programs that will fund a conservation program and will provide additional, alternative water sources to reduce or replace coastal and inland pumpage, and to replenish the aquifers with managed aquifer recharge in an inland portion of the Pajaro Valley.

California↗
USGS2023

Seasonal roost characteristics and fall behavior of coastal populations of Northern Myotis (Myotis septentrionalis)

Temperate bats exhibit seasonal and sex differences in resource selection and activity patterns that are influenced by ambient conditions. During fall, individuals face energetic trade-offs as they make choices relating to migration, mating, and hibernation that may diverge for populations throughout their range. However, research has largely focused on the summer maternity and winter hibernation seasons, whereas the prehibernation period remains comparatively understudied. Northern Myotis ( Myotis septentrionalis ) have experienced precipitous population declines from white-nose syndrome (WNS), leading to their protected status in the United States and Canada. Therefore, understanding their ecology throughout the year is paramount to inform conservation. We compared seasonal roosts and documented fall behaviors between study sites and sexes on 3 islands: Long Island (New York), Martha’s Vineyard, and Nantucket Island (Massachusetts). Between 2017 and 2020, we radio-tracked 54 individuals to analyze activity patterns and characterize fall roosts to compare with previously known summer roosts. Summer tree roosts were of smaller diameter, later stages of decay, and lower canopy closure than those used in fall. Both sexes selected trees of similar diameter and decay stage during fall. Anthropogenic roost use was documented in both seasons but use of anthropogenic structures was greater during fall and increased as the season progressed. Bats made short inter-roost movements with males traveling greater distances than females on average. Activity occurred until late November, with males exhibiting a longer active period than females. We tracked 23% of tagged bats to local hibernacula in subterranean anthropogenic structures, the majority of which were crawlspaces underneath houses. Use of anthropogenic structures for roosts and hibernacula may facilitate survival of this species in coastal regions despite the presence of WNS infections. Timing of restrictions on forest management activities for bat conservation may be mismatched based on prehibernation activity observed in these coastal populations, and the conservation of habitat surrounding anthropogenic roosts or hibernacula may be warranted if the structures themselves cannot be protected.

Massachusetts, New York↗
USGS2018

Coastal wetland adaptation to sea level rise: Quantifying potential for landward migration and coastal squeeze

Coastal wetland ecosystems are expected to migrate landwards in response to rising seas. However, due to differences in topography and coastal urbanization, estuaries vary in their ability to accommodate migration. Low‐lying urban areas can constrain migration and lead to wetland loss (i.e. coastal squeeze), especially where existing wetlands cannot keep pace with rising seas via vertical adjustments. In many estuaries, there is a pressing need to identify landward migration corridors and better quantify the potential for landward migration and coastal squeeze. We quantified and compared the area available for landward migration of tidal saline wetlands and the area where urban development is expected to prevent migration for 39 estuaries along the wetland‐rich USA Gulf of Mexico coast. We did so under three sea level rise scenarios (0.5, 1.0, and 1.5 m by 2100). Within the region, the potential for wetland migration is highest within certain estuaries in Louisiana and southern Florida (e.g. Atchafalaya/Vermilion Bays, Mermentau River, Barataria Bay, and the North and South Ten Thousand Islands estuaries). The potential for coastal squeeze is highest in estuaries containing major metropolitan areas that extend into low‐lying lands. The Charlotte Harbor, Tampa Bay, and Crystal‐Pithlachascotee estuaries (Florida) have the highest amounts of urban land expected to constrain wetland migration. Urban barriers to migration are also high in the Galveston Bay (Texas) and Atchafalaya/Vermilion Bays (Louisiana) estuaries. Synthesis and applications . Coastal wetlands provide many ecosystem services that benefit human health and well‐being, including shoreline protection and fish and wildlife habitat. As the rate of sea level rise accelerates in response to climate change, coastal wetland resources could be lost in areas that lack space for landward migration. Migration corridors are particularly important in highly urbanized estuaries where, due to low‐lying coastal development, there is not space for wetlands to move and adapt to sea level rise. Future‐focused landscape conservation plans that incorporate the protection of wetland migration corridors can increase the adaptive capacity of these valuable ecosystems and simultaneously decrease the vulnerability of coastal human communities to the harmful effects of rising seas.

Gulf of Mexico coast↗
USGS2020

Potential impacts of future urbanization and sea level rise on Florida’s natural resources

As urban development continues to encroach into natural systems, these ecosystems experience increasing degradation to their form and function. Losses in biodiversity and ecosystem function are further compounded by changing climatic conditions. The State of Florida is known for its biodiversity but has experienced declines in species populations and habitats because of urbanization and sea level rise. These declines are particularly challenging in an economy that benefits from a multibillion-dollar income from natural resources tourism. In this study, we assessed the potential future impacts of urbanization and sea level rise on a suite of conservation targets that have been set for the State. We developed six scenarios of all combinations of intermediate and high sea level rise paired with two types of urbanization (sprawling and compact) in both 2040 and 2070 to examine the potential future threats to conservation targets in High Pine and Scrub, Coastal Uplands, and Freshwater Aquatics ecosystems. Our results show projected decreases in extent and area of these priority ecosystems into the future. Florida's current trend in urbanization practices are projected to have a greater impact on conservation targets than if sprawl reduction practices are implemented. Coastal Uplands are projected to experience the greatest loss in area, at up to 47%. Conservation-focused urban planning and climate adaptation strategies can help protect Florida's natural resources with benefits to Florida's tourism economy as well as critical ecosystem functions and services such as coastal flood protection and storm surge risk reduction.

Florida↗