Editorial: Exploring new frontiers with JGR–Solid Earth
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We present a new infrasonic signal detection and back azimuth determination technique that requires just one microphone and one three-component seismometer. Ground-coupled airwaves (GCAs) occur when an incident atmospheric acoustic wave impinges on the ground surface and is partially transmitted as a seismic wave. GCAs are commonly detected hundreds of kilometers away on seismic networks and are observed to have retrograde particle motion. Horizontally propagating acoustic waves and GCAs have previously been observed on collocated infrasound and seismic sensor pairs as coherent with a 90° phase difference. If the sensors are spatially separated, an additional propagation-induced phase shift is present. The additional phase shift depends on the direction from which the acoustic wave arrives, as each back azimuth has a different apparent distance between the sensors. We use the additional phase shift, the coherence, and the characteristic particle motion on the three-component seismometer to determine GCA arrivals and their unique back azimuth. We test this technique with synthetic seismo-acoustic data generated by a coupled Earth-atmosphere 3-D finite difference code, as well as three seismo-acoustic data sets from Mount St. Helens, Mount Cleveland, and Mount Pagan volcanoes. Results from our technique compare favorably with traditional infrasound array processing and provide robust GCA detection and back azimuth determination. Assuming adequate station spacing and sampling, our technique provides a new and robust method to detect infrasonic signals and determine their back azimuth, and may be of practical benefit where resources are limited and large sensor networks or arrays are not feasible.
I have used Euler-vector clustering to assign 469 GEONET stations in southwest Japan to k clusters ( k = 2, 3,..., 9) so that, for any k , the velocities of stations within each cluster are most consistent with rigid-block motion on a sphere. That is, I attempt to explain the raw (i.e., uncorrected for strain accumulation), 1996–2006 velocities of those 469 Global Positioning System stations by rigid motion of k clusters on the surface of a spherical Earth. Because block geometry is maintained as strain accumulates, Euler-vector clustering may better approximate the block geometry than the values of the associated Euler vectors. The microplate solution for each k is constructed by merging contiguous clusters that have closely similar Euler vectors. The best solution consists of three microplates arranged along the Nankaido Trough-Ryukyu Trench between the Amurian and Philippine Sea Plates. One of these microplates, the South Kyushu Microplate (an extension of the Ryukyu forearc into the southeast corner of Kyushu), had previously been identified from paleomagnetic rotations. Relative to ITRF2000 the three microplates rotate at different rates about neighboring poles located close to the northwest corner of Shikoku. The microplate model is identical to that proposed in the block model of Wallace et al. (2009, https://doi.org/10.1130/G2522A.1) except in southernmost Kyushu. On Shikoku and Honshu, but not Kyushu, the microplate model is consistent with that proposed in the block models of Nishimura and Hashimoto (2006, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2006.04.017) and Loveless and Meade (2010, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JB006248) without the low-slip-rate boundaries proposed in the latter.
Mid-ocean ridges, the Earth's most extensive volcanic system, exhibit unique characteristics in sediment-dominant environments. Thick sediment cover insulates the crust and channels fluid along pathways that can lead to the formation of distinct crustal alteration patterns, exceptionally large mineral deposits, and specialized chemosynthetic ecosystems. This study presents an interdisciplinary investigation into the tectonics of the Escanaba Trough, a heavily sedimented axial valley at the southern Gorda Ridge in the Northeast Pacific Ocean. A primary challenge in such environments is overcoming the masking effect of thick sediments on basement structures that control magmatic and hydrothermal activity. We address this by employing three-dimensional (3D) magnetic modeling of high-resolution near-seafloor magnetic data collected by an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV). The 2022 surveys with AUV Sentry provided data for 3D magnetic susceptibility models, refining our understanding of the geometry of sub-sediment laccoliths/saucer-shaped sills and hydrothermal alteration. In conjunction with a new 1:100,000 scale lithostratigraphic map, we outline the tectonic controls on the emplacement of Escanaba Trough's three main volcanic centers, characterize the geometry of its spreading segments, and provide volumetric data on the distribution of sub-sediment volcanism in the southern Gorda Ridge.
Human-induced earthquakes occur along critically stressed faults as injected wastewater simultaneously heightens fluid pressure and pushes faults to failure. We investigate the possibility that small stresses imposed by Earth tides could trigger earthquakes in the induced seismicity region of Oklahoma and Kansas from 2011 to 2018. We decluster a catalog consisting of ∼110,000 earthquakes using three methods (Reasenberg, nearest-neighbor distance, and phase-bin). We find no significant tidal earthquake triggering using Schuster's p -value test for the declustered catalogs as a whole. We search for localized triggering using discretized space-time cells and find ∼0–6% of cells have significant tidal triggering which is close to what is randomly expected (5%) and indicates there is an insignificant amount of tidal triggering for the full study region. One area that has significant p -values across multiple time windows, ∼2014–2016 is ∼15 km from a region of large wastewater injection volume. It is possible that localized tidal triggering occurs for this time and area because faults remain critically stressed and are particularly susceptible to slip under the small stress load from the semidiurnal tide. Possible explanations for the lack of tidal triggering in our broader study are that the pre-seismic stressing rate in the earthquake nucleation area is faster than the tidal stressing rate (∼3 kPa/day), faults are not close enough to critically stressed to be affected by tidal forcing, and that nucleation occurs over longer periods than the tides considered in this study (∼1, ∼14 days). Fluid injection could be the source of a higher pre-seismic stress rate.
Earth's long-period background seismic wavefield is dominated by two distinct processes that couple ocean wave energy to a global microseism wavefield. We assess global microseism intensity in the secondary (4–10 s) and primary (14–20 s) bands, and across eight 2 s-wide period bands between 4 and 20 s. Robustly estimated primary and secondary secular amplitude trends are estimated at 73 globally distributed seismic station sites with continuous recording spanning at least 20 years, from as early as the late 1980s through October 2025. These trends are positive at 3𝜎 significance for 61 (84%) and 46 (63%) stations with global average rates for vertical-component acceleration of 0.17 ± 0.04 and 0.11 ± 0.05%/yr, for the primary and secondary bands, respectively, with corresponding rates of energy increase of 0.27 ± 0.08 and 0.15 ± 0.09%/yr. Secular intensification is also observed within all 2 s period bands between 4 and 20 s. Amplitude histories for the longest primary microseism periods (18–20 s) correlate to near-antipodal distances, reflecting long-range teleconnections attributed to large-fetch storm systems, long-range swell and Rayleigh wave propagation, and geographically correlated El Niño Southern Oscillation and other geographically extensive atmospheric influences on storms and waves. The lower average rates of intensification for the secondary microseism suggest that crossing wave systems in remote regions are either under-observed or are intensifying more slowly than the primary microseism, possibly due to increasing swell unidirectionality. Secular intensification is greatest at the longest primary microseism periods. This is consistent with a broadening of the global ocean wave spectrum by approximately 0.01%/yr which may reflect an increasing occurrence of large storm systems.
The two major explosive phases of the 22-23 April 2015 eruption of Calbuco volcano, Chile produced powerful seismicity and infrasound. The eruption was recorded on seismo-acoustic stations out to 1,540 km and on 5 stations (IS02, IS08, IS09, IS27, and IS49) of the International Monitoring System (IMS) infrasound network at distances from 1,525 to 5,122 km. The remote IMS infrasound stations provide an accurate explosion chronology consistent with the regional and local seismo-acoustic data, and with previous studies of lightning and plume observations. We use the IMS network to detect and locate the eruption signals using a brute-force, grid search, cross-bearings approach. After incorporating azimuth deviation corrections from stratospheric cross-winds using 3D ray-tracing, the estimated source location is 172 km from true. This case study highlights the significant capability of the IMS infrasound network to provide automated detection, characterization, and timing estimates of global explosive volcanic activity. Augmenting the IMS with regional seismo-acoustic networks will dramatically enhance volcanic signal detection, reduce latency, and improve discrimination capability.
A total of seven independent M L ≥ 4.0 earthquakes occurred in the Los Angeles, California, basin, during the early instrumental period between 1932 and 1952, the largest of which was the 1933 Long Beach earthquake. Revising available macroseismic and instrumental data for a total of 6 4.0 ≤ M L ≤ 5.1 events between 1938 and 1944, we conclude that early instrumental locations can be grossly inconsistent with detailed macroseismic data. We use available macroseismic data to revisit event locations. We further present evidence that most if not all of these moderate earthquakes may have been induced by oil production. We quantify the predicted stress change associated with production from eight oil fields in the southwestern Los Angeles basin and show that frictional failure would have been encouraged beneath and at the periphery of high-volume fields, with stress changes upward of 0.1 MPa at 5-km depth. The results suggest that if earthquakes are induced by stress changes associated with production, the magnitudes of events might tend to be limited by the limited spatial extent of lobes of increased Coulomb failure stress. It further appears that the advent of fluid injection recovery methods ( water-flooding ) around 1960 mitigated induced earthquake risk considerably.
Seismic waves are commonly used to monitor unrest before, during, and after volcanic eruptions. The source of seismic tremor during a sustained explosive volcanic eruption is not well understood. Recent observations of the 2016 eruption of Pavlof Volcano, Alaska, revealed a change in the relationship (hysteresis) between ash plume height and seismic amplitude over time. Based on similarities in physical processes and observed seismic tremor in rivers, we explore two key sources of seismic energy in the volcanic conduit: (1) forces exerted by particle impacts and (2) dynamic pressure changes by the turbulent flow. We develop a physical model calculating the seismic power spectral density (PSD), where forces on the conduit wall are convolved with the Green's function for Rayleigh waves. Using reasonable eruption parameters, the model is able to reproduce the frequency spectrum from the Pavlof eruption, although the modeled amplitudes are generally lower. We test the relative importance of different eruption parameters, including grain size, velocity, and conduit dimensions. We find that turbulence generally dominates over particle impacts. However, to reach the PSD amplitude during the Pavlof eruption, large grain sizes are required, as they have the greatest relative influence on the modeled amplitude. The hysteresis between plume height and seismic amplitude can then potentially be explained by grain size changes. The PSD shape is mostly determined by the Rayleigh-wave quality factor Q, and substantial variations in seismic amplitude can be modeled assuming a constant mass eruption rate.
The largest slip in great megathrust earthquakes often occurs in the 10–30 km depth range, yet seismic imaging of the material properties in this region has proven difficult. We utilize a dense onshore-offshore passive seismic dataset from the southernmost Cascadia subduction zone where seismicity in the mantle of the subducted Gorda Plate produces S -to- P and P -to- S conversions generated within a few km of the plate interface. These conversions typically occur in the 10–20 km depth range at either the top or bottom of a ∼5 km thick layer with a high Vp/Vs that we infer to be primarily the subducted crust. We use their arrival times and amplitudes to infer the location of the top and bottom of the subducted crust as well as the velocity contrasts across these discontinuities. Comparing with both the Slab1.0 and the updated Slab2 interface models, the Slab2 model is generally consistent with the converted phases, while the Slab1.0 model is 1–2 km deeper in the 2–20 km depth range and ∼6–8 km too deep in the 10–20 km depth range between 40.25°N and 40.4°N. Comparing the amplitudes of the converted phases to synthetics for simplified velocity structures, the amplitude of the converted phases requires models containing a ∼5 km thick zone with at least a ∼10%–20% reduction in S wave velocity. Thus, the plate boundary is likely contained within or at the top of this low velocity zone, which potentially indicates a significant porosity and fluid content within the seismogenic zone.
Shallowly dipping (<30°) low‐angle normal faults (LANFs) have been documented globally; however, examples of active LANFs in continental settings are limited. The western margin of the Panamint Range in eastern California is defined by a LANF that dips west beneath Panamint Valley and has evidence of Quaternary motion. In addition, high‐angle dextral‐oblique normal faults displace middle to late Quaternary alluvial fans near the range front. To image shallow (<1 km depth), crosscutting relationships between the low‐ and high‐angle faults along the range front, we acquired two high‐resolution P wave seismic reflection profiles. The northern, 4.6‐km‐long profile crosses the 2‐km‐wide Wildrose graben and the southern, 0.8‐km‐long profile extends onto the Panamint Valley playa, ~7.5 km S of Ballarat, CA. The profile across the Wildrose graben reveals a robust, low‐angle reflector interpreted to represent the LANF separating Plio‐Pleistocene alluvial fanglomerate and Proterozoic metasedimentary deposits. High‐angle faults interpreted in the seismic profile correspond to fault scarps on Quaternary alluvial fan surfaces. Interpretation of the reflection data suggests that the high‐angle faults vertically displace the LANF up to 80 m within the Wildrose graben. Similarly, the profile south of Ballarat reveals a low‐angle reflector, which appears both rotated and displaced up to 260 m by high‐angle faults. These results suggest that near the Panamint range front, the high‐angle faults are the dominant active structures. We conclude that at least at shallow (<1 km) depths, the LANF we imaged is not active today.
An increase in injection activity associated with energy production in southern Kansas starting in 2013 has been linked to the occurrence of more than 130,000 earthquakes (M −1.5 to 4.9) between 2014 and 2017. Studies suggest that the dramatic increase in seismicity rate is related to wastewater injection into the highly permeable Arbuckle formation. Most of the seismicity is located in the underlying crystalline basement, for which hydrological properties and specific fault geometries are unknown. Additionally, some earthquake clusters occurred relatively far (tens of kilometers) from the main injection wells. Therefore, the effect of pore pressure diffusion may be insufficient to explain the relation between the volume of injected fluids and the spatiotemporal evolution of seismicity. Combining physical models (static stress and poroelasticity) and a statistical cluster analysis applied to a high-resolution relocated catalog, we analyze the evolution of seismicity in southern Kansas. We find that pore pressure changes (Δ p ) and Coulomb stress changes (ΔCFS) due to fluid diffusion smaller than 0.1 MPa are enough to initiate seismic sequences, which then evolve depending on their distance from the major injection wells. However, we find that earthquake sequences have different seismogenic responses to Δ p and ΔCFS in terms of triggering threshold. In regions located close to disposal wells (Harper area) our cluster analysis suggests that both earthquake interactions and fluid diffusion control the evolution of seismicity. On the other hand, at greater distances (Milan area), where clustering behavior suggests greater earthquake interactions, we find that coseismic ΔCFS are larger than Δ p .
The Hayward fault in California's San Francisco Bay area produces large earthquakes, with the last occurring in 1868. We examine how physics‐based dynamic rupture modeling can be used to numerically simulate large earthquakes on not only the Hayward fault, but also its connected companions to the north and south, the Rodgers Creek and Calaveras faults. Equipped with a wealth of images of this fault system, including those of its 3D geology and 3D geometry, in addition to inferences about its interseismic creep‐rate pattern and rock‐friction behavior, we use a finite‐element computer code to perform 3D dynamic earthquake rupture simulations. We find that the rock properties affect the locations and amount of slip produced in our simulated large earthquakes. Crucial factors that control rupture behavior in our modeling are the earthquake nucleation locations, the fault geometry, and the data that reveal where the fault system is creeping or locked. Our findings suggest that large Rodgers Creek‐Hayward‐Calaveras‐Northern Calaveras (RC‐H‐C‐NC) fault‐system earthquakes may result from dynamic rupture that starts in a locked part of the fault system, but is then stopped by the creeping parts, leading to high‐magnitude‐6 earthquakes; or, from dynamic rupture that starts in a locked part of the fault system, then cascades through some of the creeping parts, leading to magnitude‐7 earthquakes.
The Walker Lane is a zone of distributed transtension where normal faults are overprinted by strike-slip motion. We use two newly-acquired high-resolution seismic reflection profiles and a reprocessed Consortium for Continental Reflection Profiling (COCORP) deep crustal reflection profile to assess the subsurface geometry of the Holocene-active, transtensional Warm Springs Valley fault zone (WSVFZ) near Reno, Nevada, USA. Our multi-scale observations extend to 12 km depth and suggest that the WSVFZ is more complex in the subsurface than implied by late Pleistocene surface fault traces. Two ~4-km-long high-resolution profiles image to a depth of ~2 km and reveal moderately dipping reflections and truncations, some of which project to mapped scarps formed in late Pleistocene surfaces. The shallow lines are co-located with COCORP profile NV 08 along ~40° N latitude. Re-analysis of the COCORP data reveals previously unidentified coherent reflections to a depth of ~12 km and a previously mapped ~30 west-dipping fault at 8-12 km. From these seismic profiles, the WSVFZ is not a simple, sub-vertical fault zone extending through the entire seismogenic crust. Instead, the reflections are consistent with a zone of steep- and moderately-dipping faults that simplify and steepen with depth before intersecting a mid-crustal, low angle (~25-30°) fault. The complex fault geometry of the WSVFZ implies that crustal shear is accommodated by a mix of dipping and subvertical faults in the transtensional northern Walker Lane. If so, transtensional fault zones may present challenges to paleoseismic and geodetic studies and require careful treatment when included in seismic hazard analyses.
Observations of crustal stress orientation from the regional inversion of earthquake focal mechanisms often conflict with those from borehole breakouts, possibly indicating local stress heterogeneity, either laterally or with depth. To investigate this heterogeneity, we compiled SHmax estimates from previous studies for 57 near‐vertical boreholes with measured breakout azimuths across the Los Angeles region. We identified subsets of earthquake focal mechanisms from established earthquake catalogs centered around each borehole with various criteria for maximum depth and maximum lateral distance from the borehole. Each subset was independently inverted for 3‐D stress orientation and corresponding SHmax probability distributions, then compared with the corresponding borehole breakout‐derived estimate. We find good agreement when both methods sample the basement stress (breakouts are close to the sediment‐basement interface), or when both methods sample the mid‐basin stress (sufficient earthquakes are present within a sedimentary basin). Along sedimentary basin margins, in contrast, we find acceptable agreement only when focal mechanisms are limited to shallow and close earthquakes, implying short‐length‐scale heterogeneity of <20 km. While the region as a whole shows evidence of both lateral and vertical stress orientation heterogeneity, we find a more homogeneous stress state within basement rock, over length scales of 1–35 km. These results reconcile the apparently conflicting observations of short‐length‐scale heterogeneity observed in boreholes, which sample primarily the basins, with the relative homogeneity of stress inferred from focal mechanisms, which sample primarily the basement, and imply distinct regimes for the appropriate use of each type of stress indicator.
I explore why physics‐based models of earthquake triggering rarely outperform statistical models in prospective testing, outside of limited spatial‐temporal windows. Pseudo‐prospective tests on suites of synthetic aftershock sequences show that a major factor is the level of unmodeled spatial clustering of the direct aftershocks triggered by the mainshock. The synthetic sequences are generated from generalized “physical” triggering models, optionally superimposed on background heterogeneity that controls the level of clustering. The statistical Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model performs relatively better the more clustered the direct aftershocks, while the true generalized “physical” model performs relatively worse. Real aftershocks appear to be sufficiently clustered to allow ETAS to perform as well as or better than physical models such as Coulomb stress triggering. A likely cause of the spatial clustering of direct aftershocks is heterogeneity of the background physical conditions, which typically is not modeled in physics‐based forecasts. This implies that the forecast performance of physical models could be substantially improved through a better understanding of the interaction between earthquake stress changes and variable background physical conditions such as stress state, fault strength, and fluid pressure.
The PLUM (Propagation of Local Undamped Motion) earthquake early warning (EEW) algorithm differs from typical source-based EEW algorithms as it predicts shaking directly from observed shaking without first deriving earthquake source information (e.g., magnitude and epicenter). Here, we determine optimal PLUM event detection thresholds for U.S. West Coast earthquakes using two data sets: 558 M3.5+ earthquakes (California, Oregon, Washington; 2012–2017) and the ShakeAlert test suite of historic and problematic signals (1999–2015). PLUM computes Modified Mercalli Intensity ( I MMI ) using velocity and acceleration data, leveraging co-located sensors to avoid problematic signals. An event detection is issued when the observed I MMI exceeds a given threshold(s). We find a two-station detection method using I MMI trigger thresholds of 4.0 and 3.0 for the first and second stations, respectively, is optimal for detecting M4.5+ earthquakes. PLUM detected 79 events in the 2012–2017 data set, reporting (not including telemetry or alert dissemination) detection times on par, and sometimes faster than current EEW methods (mean 8 s; median 6 s). As expected, detection times were slower for the older 1999–2015 earthquakes ( N = 21; mean 11 s; median 6 s) when station coverage was sparser. Of the 31 PLUM detected M5+ events (10 2012–2017; 21 1999–2015), theoretically 20 (∼65%) could provide timely warnings. PLUM issued no false detections and avoided issuing detections for all calibration/anomalous signals, regional and teleseismic events. We conclude PLUM can successfully identify I MMI 4+ shaking from local earthquakes and could complement and enhance EEW in the U.S.
The world’s largest underground gas storage facility in Hutubi (HUGS), China, is a unique case where cyclic gas injection‐extraction induced both seismicity and ground deformation. To assess the potential for future induced seismicity, we develop a framework physically based on a well‐constrained hydro‐geomechanical model and on fully coupled poroelastic simulations. We first interpret the spatiotemporal distribution and focal mechanisms of induced earthquakes and use these to estimate the magnitude and location of the largest potential earthquake. The sharp increase in seismicity was controlled by poroelastic loading on secondary southwest‐dipping thrust faults with spatial scales too small to be resolved by 3D seismic surveys. Both operational and local geological factors affect the seismic productivity at the HUGS site, distinguishing it from most cases of seismicity induced by wastewater disposal and hydraulic fracturing. We then conduct slip tendency analyses for major faults imaged by the seismic data, including the largest reservoir‐bounding Hutubi fault hydraulically connected to injection wells. The reactivation potentials of these imaged faults are estimated to be extremely low. Accordingly, future seismicity would most likely occur on failure‐prone secondary faults in regions with positive stress perturbation due to poroelastic loading. The maximum magnitude likely depends on the spatial scales of the secondary faults. As the occurrence of detected earthquakes is spatially and temporally consistent with the simulated evolution of Coulomb stress perturbation, the location of the largest potential earthquake probably depends on the sizes of the poroelastic stressing regions.