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The impact of biotic/abiotic interfaces in mineral nutrient cycling: A study of soils of the Santa Cruz chronosequence, California

Biotic/abiotic interactions between soil mineral nutrients and annual grassland vegetation are characterized for five soils in a marine terrace chronosequence near Santa Cruz, California. A Mediterranean climate, with wet winters and dry summers, controls the annual cycle of plant growth and litter decomposition, resulting in net above-ground productivities of 280–600 g m −2 yr −1 . The biotic/abiotic (A/B) interface separates seasonally reversible nutrient gradients, reflecting biological cycling in the shallower soils, from downward chemical weathering gradients in the deeper soils. The A/B interface is pedologically defined by argillic clay horizons centered at soil depths of about one meter which intensify with soil age. Below these horizons, elevated solute Na/Ca, Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca ratios reflect plagioclase and smectite weathering along pore water flow paths. Above the A/B interface, lower cation ratios denote temporal variability due to seasonal plant nutrient uptake and litter leaching. Potassium and Ca exhibit no seasonal variability beneath the A/B interface, indicating closed nutrient cycling within the root zone, whereas Mg variability below the A/B interface denotes downward leakage resulting from higher inputs of marine aerosols and lower plant nutrient requirements. The fraction of a mineral nutrient annually cycled through the plants, compared to that lost from pore water discharge, is defined their respective fluxes F j,plants = q j,plants /( q j,plants + q j,discharge ) with average values for K and Ca ( F K,plants = 0.99; F Ca,plants = 0.93) much higher than for Mg and Na ( F Mg,plants 0.64; F Na,plants = 0.28). The discrimination against Rb and Sr by plants is described by fractionation factors ( K Sr/Ca = 0.86; K Rb/K = 0.83) which are used in Rayleigh fractionation-mixing calculations to fit seasonal patterns in solute K and Ca cycling. K Rb/K and K 24 Mg / 22 Mg "> K24Mg/22Mg values (derived from isotope data in the literature) fall within fractionation envelopes bounded by inputs from rainfall and mineral weathering. K Sr/Ca and K 44 Ca / 40 Ca "> K44Ca/40Ca fractionation factors fall outside these envelopes indicating that Ca nutrient cycling is closed to these external inputs. Small net positive K and Ca fluxes (6–14 mol m −2 yr −1 ), based on annual mass balances, indicate that the soils are accumulating mineral nutrients, probably as a result of long-term environmental disequilibrium.

California

Wildfire risk in the wildland-urban interface: A simulation study in northwestern Wisconsin

The rapid growth of housing in and near the wildland–urban interface (WUI) increases wildfire risk to lives and structures. To reduce fire risk, it is necessary to identify WUI housing areas that are more susceptible to wildfire. This is challenging, because wildfire patterns depend on fire behavior and spread, which in turn depend on ignition locations, weather conditions, the spatial arrangement of fuels, and topography. The goal of our study was to assess wildfire risk to a 60,000 ha WUI area in northwestern Wisconsin while accounting for all of these factors. We conducted 6000 simulations with two dynamic fire models: Fire Area Simulator (FARSITE) and Minimum Travel Time (MTT) in order to map the spatial pattern of burn probabilities. Simulations were run under normal and extreme weather conditions to assess the effect of weather on fire spread, burn probability, and risk to structures. The resulting burn probability maps were intersected with maps of structure locations and land cover types. The simulations revealed clear hotspots of wildfire activity and a large range of wildfire risk to structures in the study area. As expected, the extreme weather conditions yielded higher burn probabilities over the entire landscape, as well as to different land cover classes and individual structures. Moreover, the spatial pattern of risk was significantly different between extreme and normal weather conditions. The results highlight the fact that extreme weather conditions not only produce higher fire risk than normal weather conditions, but also change the fine-scale locations of high risk areas in the landscape, which is of great importance for fire management in WUI areas. In addition, the choice of weather data may limit the potential for comparisons of risk maps for different areas and for extrapolating risk maps to future scenarios where weather conditions are unknown. Our approach to modeling wildfire risk to structures can aid fire risk reduction management activities by identifying areas with elevated wildfire risk and those most vulnerable under extreme weather conditions.

Wisconsin

Geophysics: Silent slip on the Cascadia subduction interface

G eodetic satellites of the Global Positioning System (GPS) now permit continuous recording of surface motions around earthquake faults and volcanoes with millimeter precision. Data from distinct points on Earth's surface can be combined to infer the locations of the sources of deformation at depth in the crust. These data are radically altering our understanding of earthquake processes, justifying ambitious new sensor arrays to image active deformation sources in Earth's crust. In recent years, large continuous GPS arrays have been deployed in Japan and southern California, and smaller networks have been installed in other seismically active regions. On page 1525 of this issue ( 1 ), Dragert et al. provide a glimpse of the kinds of insights we can expect from these arrays.

Cascadia subduction zone

Movement of the saltwater interface in the surficial aquifer system in response to hydrologic stresses and water-management practices, Broward County, Florida

A study was conducted to evaluate the relation between water-level fluctuations and saltwater intrusion in Broward County, Florida. The objective was achieved through data collection at selected wells in Broward County and through the development of a variable-density ground-water flow model. The numerical model is representative of many locations in Broward County that contain a well field, control structure, canal, the Intracoastal Waterway, and the Atlantic Ocean. The model was used to simulate short-term movement (from tidal fluctuations to monthly changes) and long-term movement (greater than 10 years) of the saltwater interface resulting from changes in rainfall, well-field withdrawals, sea-level rise, and upstream canal stage. The SEAWAT code, which is a combined version of the computer codes, MODFLOW and MT3D, was used to simulate the complex variable-density flow patterns. Model results indicated that the canal, control structure, and sea level have major effects on ground-water flow. For periods greater than 10 years, the upstream canal stage controls the movement and location of the saltwater interface. If upstream canal stage is decreased by 1 foot (0.3048 meter), the saltwater interface takes 50 years to move inland and stabilize. If the upstream canal stage is then increased by 1 foot (0.3048 meter), the saltwater interface takes 90 years to move seaward and stabilize. If sea level rises about 48 centimeters over the next 100 year as predicted, then inland movement of the saltwater interface may cause well-field contamination. For periods less than 10 years, simulation results indicated that a 3-year drought with increased well-field withdrawals probably will not have long-term effects on the position of the saltwater interface in the Biscayne aquifer. The saltwater interface returns to its original position in less than 10 years. Model results, however, indicated that the interface location in the lower part of the surficial aquifer system takes longer than 10 years to recover from a drought. Additionally, rainfall seems to have the greatest effect on saltwater interface movement in areas some distance from canals, but the upstream canal stage has the greatest effect on the movement of the saltwater interface near canals. Field data indicated that saltwater interface movement includes short-term fluctuations caused by tidal fluctuations and long-term seasonal fluctuations. Statistical analyses of daily-averaged data indicated that the saltwater interface moves in response to pumpage, rainfall, and upstream canal stage. In areas near the canal, the saltwater interface is most affected by canal stage because water-management structures control the stage in the upstream part of the canal and allow movement of the saltwater interface. In areas away from the canal, the saltwater interface is most affected by pumpage and rainfall, depending on the location of well fields. Data analyses also revealed that rainfall changes the vertical flow direction in the Biscayne aquifer. Results from the study indicated that upstream canal stage substantially affects the long-term position of the saltwater interface in the surficial aquifer system. The saltwater interface moves faster inland than seaward because of changes in upstream canal stage. For short-term problems, such as drought, the threat of saltwater intrusion in the Biscayne aquifer does not appear to be severe if the well-field withdrawal is increased; however, this conclusion is based on the assumption that well-field withdrawals will decrease once the drought is over. Sea-level rise may be a potential threat to the water supply in Broward County as the saltwater interface moves inland toward well fields.

Florida

Alternative rupture-scaling relationships for subduction interface and other offshore environments

Alternative fault-rupture-scaling relationships are developed for Mw 7.1– 9.5 subduction interface earthquakes using a new database of consistently derived finitefault rupture models from teleseismic inversion. Scaling relationships are derived for rupture area, rupture length, rupture width, maximum slip, and average slip. These relationships apply width saturation for large-magnitude interface earthquakes (approximately Mw >8:6) for which the physical characteristics of subduction zones limit the depth extent of seismogenic rupture, and consequently, the down-dip limit of strong ground motion generation. On average, the down-dip rupture width for interface earthquakes saturates near 200 km (196 km on average). Accordingly, the reinterpretation of rupture-area scaling for subduction interface earthquakes through the use of a bilinear scaling model suggests that rupture asperity area is less well correlated with magnitude for earthquakes Mw >8:6. Consequently, the size of great-magnitude earthquakes appears to be more strongly controlled by the average slip across asperities. The sensitivity of the interface scaling relationships is evaluated against geographic region (or subduction zone) and average dip along the rupture interface to assess the need for correction factors. Although regional perturbations in fault-rupture scaling could be identified, statistical significance analyses suggest there is little rationale for implementing regional correction factors based on the limited number of interface rupture models available for each region. Fault-rupture-scaling relationships are also developed for intraslab (within the subducting slab), extensional outer-rise and offshore strike-slip environments. For these environments, the rupture width and area scaling properties yield smaller dimensions than interface ruptures for the corresponding magnitude. However, average and maximum slip metrics yield larger values than interface events. These observations reflect both the narrower fault widths and higher stress drops in these faulting environments. Although expressing significantly different rupture-scaling properties from earthquakes in subduction environments, the characteristics of offshore strike-slip earthquake ruptures compare similarly to commonly used rupture-scaling relationships for onshore strike-slip earthquakes.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America

Aquifer/aquitard interfaces: Mixing zones that enhance biogeochemical reactions

Several important biogeochemical reactions are known to occur near the interface between aquifer and aquitard sediments. These reactions include O2 reduction; denitrification; and Fe3+, SO42-, and CO2 (methanogenesis) reduction. In some settings, these reactions occur on the aquitard side of the interface as electron acceptors move from the aquifer into the electron-donor-enriched aquitard. In other settings, these reactions occur on the aquifer side of the interface as electron donors move from the aquitard into the electron-acceptor-enriched, or microorganism-enriched, aquifer. Thus, the aquifer/aquitard interface represents a mixing zone capable of supporting greater microbial activity than either hydrogeologic unit alone. The extent to which biogeochemical reactions proceed in the mixing zone and the width of the mixing zone depend on several factors, including the abundance and solubility of electron acceptors and donors on either side of the interface and the rate at which electron acceptors and donors react and move across the interface. Biogeochemical reactions near the aquifer/aquitard interface can have a substantial influence on the chemistry of water in aquifers and on the chemistry of sediments near the interface.

Hydrogeology Journal

The saltwater-freshwater interface in the Tertiary limestone aquifer, southeast Atlantic outer-continental shelf of the U.S.A.

Hydrologic testing in an offshore oil well abandoned by Tenneco, Inc., determined the position of the saltwater-freshwater interface in Tertiary limestones underlying the Florida-Georgia continental shelf of the U.S.A. Previous drilling (JOIDES and U.S.G.S. AMCOR projects) established the existence of freshwater far offshore in this area. At the Tenneco well 55 mi. (∼88 km) east of Fernandina Beach, Florida, drill-stem tests made in the interval 1050–1070 ft. (320–326 m) below sea level in the Ocala Limestone recovered a sample with a chloride concentration of 7000 mg l −1 . Formation water probably is slightly fresher. Pressure-head measurements indicated equivalent freshwater heads of 24–29 ft. (7.3–8.8 m) above sea level. At the coast (Fernandina Beach), a relatively thin transition zone separating freshwater and saltwater occurs at a depth of 2100 ft. (640 m) below sea level. Fifty-five miles (∼88 km) offshore, at the Tenneco well, the base of freshwater is ∼1100 ft. (∼335 m) below sea level. The difference in approximate depth to the freshwater-saltwater transition at these two locations suggests an interface with a very slight landward slope. Assuming the Hubbert interface equation applies here (because the interface and therefore freshwater flow lines are nearly horizontal) the equilibrium depth to the interface should be 40 times the freshwater head above sea level. Using present-day freshwater heads along the coast in the Hubbert equation results in depths to the interface of less than the observed 2100 ft. (640 m). Substituting predevelopment heads in the equation yields depths greater than 2100 ft. (640 m). Thus the interface appears to be in a transient position between the position that would be compatible with present-day heads and the position that would be compatible with predevelopment heads. This implies that some movement of the interface from the predevelopment position has occurred during the past hundred years. The implied movement is incompatible with the hypothesis that the freshwater occurring far offshore in this area is trapped water remaining since the Pleistocene Epoch.

Florida, Georgia

Changes in the saltwater interface corresponding to the installation of a seepage barrier near Lake Okeechobee, Florida

In 2011, the U.S. Geological Survey and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers began monitoring the saltwater interface near Lake Okeechobee to evaluate changes in interface depth that could possibly be related to the repair of the Herbert Hoover Dike. A seepage barrier (or cut-off wall), installed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, is a wall of grout designed to protect the Herbert Hoover Dike from internal erosion caused by the piping of water. The seepage barrier prevents water from flowing through or immediately under the dike by diverting the flow below the dike, into the surficial aquifer system. The seepage barrier extends below the saltwater interface in some areas. Monitoring consisted of collecting water samples and time series electromagnetic-induction log (TSEMIL) datasets from 10 well clusters, each of which have 1 shallow and 1 deep monitoring well, with 5- to 10-foot- (ft) long-screened intervals. The deep wells are 120 to 187 ft deep, and the shallow wells are 44 to 100 ft deep. Changes in the depth of the saltwater interface were identified that correspond closely to the depth of the bottom of the seepage barrier. These changes may have been the consequence of changes in groundwater flow initiated by the seepage barrier installation. In areas of the dike where a seepage barrier had not been installed, or where the bottom of the seepage barrier is well above the saltwater interface, monitoring detected no changes in the depth of the saltwater interface. At five of the monitoring-well cluster locations, a long-screened well was also installed for monitoring and comparison purposes. These long-screened wells are 160 to 200 ft deep, and have open intervals ranging from 145 to 185 ft in length. Water samples were collected at depth intervals of about 5 to 10 ft, using 3-ft-long straddle packers to isolate each sampling interval. The results of monitoring conducted using these long-screened interval wells were generally too variable to identify any changes that might be associated with the seepage barrier. Samples from one of these long-screened interval wells failed to detect the saltwater interface evident in samples and TSEMIL datasets from a collocated well cluster. This failure may have been caused by downward flow of freshwater from above the saltwater interface in the well bore.

Florida

Structure and application of an interface program between a geographic-information system and a ground-water flow model

A computer-program interface between a geographic-information system and a groundwater flow model links two unrelated software systems for use in developing the flow models. The interface program allows the modeler to compile and manage geographic components of a groundwater model within the geographic information system. A significant savings of time and effort is realized in developing, calibrating, and displaying the groundwater flow model. Four major guidelines were followed in developing the interface program: (1) no changes to the groundwater flow model code were to be made; (2) a data structure was to be designed within the geographic information system that follows the same basic data structure as the groundwater flow model; (3) the interface program was to be flexible enough to support all basic data options available within the model; and (4) the interface program was to be as efficient as possible in terms of computer time used and online-storage space needed. Because some programs in the interface are written in control-program language, the interface will run only on a computer with the PRIMOS operating system. (USGS)

Open-File Report

Factors controlling the configuration of the fresh-saline water interface in the Dead Sea coastal aquifers: Synthesis of TDEM surveys and numerical groundwater modeling

TDEM (time domain electromagnetic) traverses in the Dead Sea (DS) coastal aquifer help to delineate the configuration of the interrelated fresh-water and brine bodies and the interface in between. A good linear correlation exists between the logarithm of TDEM resistivity and the chloride concentration of groundwater, mostly in the higher salinity range, close to that of the DS brine. In this range, salinity is the most important factor controlling resistivity. The configuration of the fresh-saline water interface is dictated by the hydraulic gradient, which is controlled by a number of hydrological factors. Three types of irregularities in the configuration of fresh-water and saline-water bodies were observed in the study area: 1. Fresh-water aquifers underlying more saline ones ("Reversal") in a multi-aquifer system. 2. "Reversal" and irregular residual saline-water bodies related to historical, frequently fluctuating DS base level and respective interfaces, which have not undergone complete flushing. A rough estimate of flushing rates may be obtained based on knowledge of the above fluctuations. The occurrence of salt beds is also a factor affecting the interface configuration. 3. The interface steepens towards and adjacent to the DS Rift fault zone. Simulation analysis with a numerical, variable-density flow model, using the US Geological Survey's SUTRA code, indicates that interface steep- ening may result from a steep water-level gradient across the zone, possibly due to a low hydraulic conductivity in the immediate vicinity of the fault.

Hydrogeology Journal

The international river interface cooperative: Public domain flow and morphodynamics software for education and applications

This paper describes a new, public-domain interface for modeling flow, sediment transport and morphodynamics in rivers and other geophysical flows. The interface is named after the International River Interface Cooperative (iRIC), the group that constructed the interface and many of the current solvers included in iRIC. The interface is entirely free to any user and currently houses thirteen models ranging from simple one-dimensional models through three-dimensional large-eddy simulation models. Solvers are only loosely coupled to the interface so it is straightforward to modify existing solvers or to introduce other solvers into the system. Six of the most widely-used solvers are described in detail including example calculations to serve as an aid for users choosing what approach might be most appropriate for their own applications. The example calculations range from practical computations of bed evolution in natural rivers to highly detailed predictions of the development of small-scale bedforms on an initially flat bed. The remaining solvers are also briefly described. Although the focus of most solvers is coupled flow and morphodynamics, several of the solvers are also specifically aimed at providing flood inundation predictions over large spatial domains. Potential users can download the application, solvers, manuals, and educational materials including detailed tutorials at www.-i-ric.org . The iRIC development group encourages scientists and engineers to use the tool and to consider adding their own methods to the iRIC suite of tools.

Advances in Water Resources

A multilayered sharp interface model of coupled freshwater and saltwater flow in coastal systems: Model development and application

A quasi three-dimensional, finite difference model, that simulates freshwater and saltwater flow separated by a sharp interface, has been developed to study layered coastal aquifer systems. The model allows for regional simulation of coastal groundwater conditions, including the effects of saltwater dynamics on the freshwater system. Vertically integrated freshwater and saltwater flow equations incorporating the interface boundary condition are solved within each aquifer. Leakage through confining layers is calculated by Darcy's law, accounting for density differences across the layer. The locations of the interface tip and toe, within grid blocks, are tracked by linearly extrapolating the position of the interface. The model has been verified using available analytical solutions and experimental results. Application of the model to the Soquel-Aptos basin, Santa Cruz County, California, illustrates the use of the quasi three-dimensional, sharp interface approach for the examination of freshwater-saltwater dynamics in regional systems. Simulation suggests that the interface, today, is still responding to long-term Pleistocene sea level fluctuations and has not achieved equilibrium with present day sea level conditions.

Water Resources Research

User's Manual for the Object User Interface (OUI): An Environmental Resource Modeling Framework

The Object User Interface is a computer application that provides a framework for coupling environmental-resource models and for managing associated temporal and spatial data. The Object User Interface is designed to be easily extensible to incorporate models and data interfaces defined by the user. Additionally, the Object User Interface is highly configurable through the use of a user-modifiable, text-based control file that is written in the eXtensible Markup Language. The Object User Interface user's manual provides (1) installation instructions, (2) an overview of the graphical user interface, (3) a description of the software tools, (4) a project example, and (5) specifications for user configuration and extension.

Open-File Report

Simulated effects of pumping and drought on ground-water levels and the freshwater-saltwater interface on the north fork of Long Island, New York

Ground water is the sole source of freshwater on the North Fork of Long Island. Future demands for the limited freshwater supply during a prolonged drought could cause drawdowns that induce saltwater intrusion and render the supply unusable. The freshwater system on the North Fork contains several localized, hydraulically isolated aquifers bounded by salty water. The need for information on the ability of these aquifers to meet future demands prompted a 4-year study to develop a ground-water flow model to simulate several proposed pumping scenarios under long-term average conditions and during a hypothetical drought, and to delineate the resulting ground-water levels and movement of the freshwater-saltwater interface. The model code selected was SHARP, a quasi-three-dimensional finite-difference method of simulating freshwater and saltwater flow simultaneously. Two sets of four proposed pumping scenarios were evaluated. The first represented average recharge from precipitation during 2006-20; the second represented the same period and conditions except for a 5-year period of drought conditions. The average-recharge simulations used the long-term (1959-99) rate of recharge; the drought simulations applied a 20-percent reduction in recharge rate and a 20-percent increase in the 1999 rate of agricultural pumpage during 2011–15. The simulated movement of the freshwater-saltwater interface in future withdrawal and recharge scenarios indicates that the interface may rise beneath pumped wells at Inlet Drive, Brecknock Hall, Main Bayview Road, Islands End, North Road, and Alvah's Lane. Either (1) movement of the interface to within 50 feet of the well screen, (2) a large percent change in the distance between the interface and the well screen, or (3) movement of the interface through a clay layer is a cause for concern. Wellfields in which saltwater intrusion does not appear to be a cause for concern were those at Ackerly Pond, Kenney's Road, Middle Road, Rocky Point Road, and hypothetical sites where future wellfields have been proposed.

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Estimation of the depth to the fresh-water/salt-water interface from vertical head gradients in wells in coastal and island aquifers

An accurate estimate of the depth to the theoretical interface between fresh, water and salt water is critical to estimates of well yields in coastal and island aquifers. The Ghyben–Herzberg relation, which is commonly used to estimate interface depth, can greatly underestimate or overestimate the fresh-water thickness, because it assumes no vertical head gradients and no vertical flow. Estimation of the interface depth needs to consider the vertical head gradients and aquifer anisotropy that may be present. This paper presents a method to calculate vertical head gradients using water-level measurements made during drilling of a partially penetrating well; the gradient is then used to estimate interface depth. Application of the method to a numerically simulated fresh-water/salt-water system shows that the method is most accurate when the gradient is measured in a deeply penetrating well. Even using a shallow well, the method more accurately estimates the interface position than does the Ghyben–Herzberg relation where substantial vertical head gradients exist. Application of the method to field data shows that drilling, collection methods of water-level data, and aquifer inhomogeneities can cause difficulties, but the effects of these difficulties can be minimized.

Hydrogeology Journal

Simulation of freshwater-saltwater interfaces in the Brooklyn-Queens aquifer system, Long Island, New York

The seaward limit of the fresh ground-water system underlying Kings and Queens Counties on Long Island, N.Y., is at the freshwater-saltwater transition zone. This zone has been conceptualized in transient-state, three-dimensional models of the aquifer system as a sharp interface between freshwater and saltwater, and represented as a stationary, zero lateral-flow boundary. In this study, a pair of two-dimensional, four-layer ground-water flow models representing a generalized vertical section in Kings County and one in adjacent Queens County were developed to evaluate the validity of the boundary condition used in three-dimensional models of the aquifer system. The two-dimensional simulations used a model code that can simulate the movement of a sharp interface in response to transient stress. Sensitivity of interface movement to four factors was analyzed; these were (1) the method of simulating vertical leakage between freshwater and saltwater; (2) recharge at the normal rate, at 50-percent of the normal rate, and at zero for a prolonged (3-year) period; (3) high, medium, and low pumping rates; and (4) pumping from a hypothetical cluster of wells at two locations. Results indicate that the response of the interfaces to the magnitude and duration of pumping and the location of the hypothetical wells is probably sufficiently slow that the interfaces in three-dimensional models can reasonably be approximated as stationary, zero-lateral- flow boundaries.

New York

Simulation of ground-water flow and movement of the freshwater-saltwater interface in the New Jersey coastal plain

The confined aquifers of the New Jersey Coastal Plain are sands that range in thickness from 50 to 600 feet and are separated by confining units. The confining units are composed of silts and clays that range in thickness from 500 to 1,000 feet. The aquifers are recharged by precipitation on their outcrop areas. This water then flows laterally downdip and vertically to the deeper confined aquifers. The confined aquifers ultimately discharge to the Raritan and Delaware Bays and to the Atlantic Ocean. In 1988, ground-water withdrawals from confined and unconfined New Jersey Coastal Plain aquifers were approximately 345 million gallons per day, more than 75 percent of which was pumped from the confined aquifers. These withdrawals have created large cones of depression in several Coastal Plain aquifers near populated areas, particularly in Camden and Monmouth Counties. The continued decline of water levels in confined aquifers can cause saltwater intrusion, reduce stream discharge near the outcrop areas, and threaten the quality of the ground-water supply. SHARP, a quasi-three-dimensional finite-difference computer model that can simulate freshwater and saltwater flow, was used to simulate the ground-water flow system in the New Jersey Coastal Plain, including the location and movement of the freshwater-saltwater interface in nine aquifers and eight intervening confining units. The freshwater-saltwater interface is defined as the hypothetical line seaward of which the chloride concentration is equal to or greater than 10,000 milligrams per liter. Model simulations were used to estimate the location and movement of the freshwater-saltwater interface resulting from (1) eustatic sea-level changes over the past 84,000 years, (2) ground-water withdrawals from 1896 through 1988, (3) and future ground-water withdrawals from 1988 to 2040 from Coastal Plain aquifers. Simultion results showed that the location and movement of the freshwater-saltwater interface are more dependent on the historical sea level than on the stresses imposed on the flow system by ground-water withdrawals from the Coastal Plain aquifers from 1896 to 1988. Results of a predictive simulation in which pumpage from existing wells was increased by 30 percent indicate that additional withdrawals from each of the eight confined aquifers in the Coastal Plain would broaden and deepen the existing cones of depression and result in significant drawdowns from the 1988 potentiometric surfaces. Drawdowns of 30 feet were simulated at the center of the cone of depression in the Upper, Middle, and Lower Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifers in Camden and Ocean Counties. Simulated drawdowns exceeded 80 feet at the center of the cone of depression in the Wenonah-Mount Laurel and Englishtown aquifers in Monmouth County. Drawdowns of 30 feet were simulated in the lower Kirkwood-Cohansey and confined Kirkwood aquifers in Cape May County. Simulation results showed that the increase in ground-water withdrawals would result in only minimal movement of the freshwater-saltwater interface by 2040, despite large drawdowns.

New Jersey

Foraging at the wildland–urban interface decouples weather as a driver of recruitment for desert bighorn sheep

A growing number of ungulate populations are living within or near the wildland–urban interface. When resources at the interface are of greater quality than that of adjacent natural habitat, wildlife can be attracted to these developed areas. Little is known about how use of the wildland–urban interface by wildlife may affect vital rates. Under natural conditions, recruitment by desert bighorn sheep ( Ovis canadensis nelsoni ) correlates with variation in the timing and amount of rainfall that initiates and enhances growth of annual plant species. However, for populations that forage in developed areas, this relationship may become decoupled. In the River Mountains of Nevada, USA, desert bighorn sheep have been feeding in a municipal park at the wildland–urban interface since its establishment in 1985. Approximately one-third of the population now uses the park during summer months when nutritional content of natural forage is low. We hypothesized that use of this municipal area, with its abundant vegetation and water resources, may have decoupled the previous relationship between precipitation and lamb recruitment. We assessed variables known to affect lamb recruitment before (1971–1986) and after (1987–2006) establishment of the park using linear regression models. Our top candidate model for the pre-park period indicated that total November precipitation was the greatest driver of lamb recruitment in this population. After park establishment, this relationship became decoupled because lamb recruitment was no longer driven by weather variables. These results raise questions about the effects of decoupling drivers of population growth and maintaining natural populations near urban areas.

Nevada