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Editorial for Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies

Hydrological regimes and processes show strong regional differences. While some regions are affected by extreme drought and desertification, others are under threat of increased fluvial and/or pluvial floods. Changes to hydrological systems as a consequence of natural variations and human activities are region-specific. Many of these changes have significant interactions with and implications for human life and ecosystems. Amongst others, population growth, improvements in living standards and other demographic and socio-economic trends, related changes in water and energy demands, change in land use, water abstractions and returns to the hydrological system (UNEP, 2008), introduce temporal and spatial changes to the system and cause contamination of surface and ground waters. Hydro-meteorological boundary conditions are also undergoing spatial and temporal changes. Climate change has been shown to increase temporal and spatial variations of rainfall, increase temperature and cause changes to evapotranspiration and other hydro-meteorological variables (IPCC, 2013). However, these changes are also region specific. In addition to these climate trends, (multi)-decadal oscillatory changes in climatic conditions and large variations in meteorological conditions will continue to occur.

Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies↗

Comment on “An unconfined groundwater model of the Death Valley Regional Flow System and a comparison to its confined predecessor” by R.W.H. Carroll, G.M. Pohll and R.L. Hershey [Journal of Hydrology 373/3–4, pp. 316–328]

Carroll et al. (2009) state that the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Death Valley Regional Flow System (DVRFS) model, which is based on MODFLOW, is “conceptually inaccurate in that it models an unconfined aquifer as a confined system and does not simulate unconfined drawdown in transient pumping simulations.” Carroll et al. (2009) claim that “more realistic estimates of water availability” can be produced by a SURFACT-based model of the DVRFS that simulates unconfined groundwater flow and limits withdrawals from wells to avoid excessive drawdown. Differences in results from the original MODFLOW-based model and the SURFACT-based model stem primarily from application by Carroll et al. (2009) of head limits that can also be applied using the existing MODLOW model and not from any substantial difference in the accuracy with which the unconfined aquifer is represented in the two models. In a hypothetical 50-year predictive simulation presented by Carroll et al. (2009), large differences between the models are shown when simulating pumping from the lower clastic confining unit, where the transmissivity is nearly two orders of magnitude less than in an alluvial aquifer. Yet even for this extreme example, drawdowns and pumping rates from the MODFLOW and SURFACT models are similar when the head-limit capabilities of the MODFLOW MNW Package are applied. These similarities persist despite possible discrepancies between assigned hydraulic properties. The resulting comparison between the MODFLOW and SURFACT models of the DVRFS suggests that approximating the unconfined system in the DVRFS as a constant-saturated-thickness system (called a “confined system” by Carroll et al., 2009) performs very well.

Death Valley↗

Section 5: Remote sensing of vegetation in the riparian corridor of the Colorado River’s delta 2013-2018

This remote sensing section is based on Nagler et al. (in preparation for the journal Hydrological Processes) and is a summary of the USGS preliminary findings to date. This report documents the changes in green foliage density (greenness) as measured by satellite vegetation index (VI) data and corresponding evapotranspiration (ET) in the riparian corridor of the Colorado River delta associated with the Minutes 319 and 323 environmental water deliveries using time-series data from 2013 through 2018. The report focuses on what happened only within the riparian corridor’s seven reaches since the 2014 flows, and despite being a continuation of measuring greenness and ET after the 2017 end of Minute 319, this study continued the tracking of these two variables, greenness and ET, in these original riparian corridor focal areas. Two spatial scales are used here: (1) Landsat satellite imagery at 30 m pixels and (2) the EOS-1 satellite sensor the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) with a resolution of 250 m pixels. The focal period includes 2013 (prepulse flow) and the years 2014-2018, with a focus on imagery collected from the Summer growing seasons 2014 through 2018 (one-year, pre-pulse and several post-pulse years, respectively). This report re-creates the 2013-2017 Landsat-based results from Jarchow et al. (2017a, b) by using the same region of interest (ROI). The report now provides revised and re-created results using all new imagery acquisition and processing techniques, as well as extraction code, created by the Vegetation Index and Phenology (VIP) Lab of the Biosystems Engineering Department of the University of Arizona (UofA). In 2018, methods employed by the VIP lab (and not ArcGIS) were used. ArcGIS was only used in the newly processed data to display the final difference maps. The entire spatial tile data from NASA was downloaded and processed at the VIP Lab using satellite imagery at two resolutions: 250 m MODIS and 30 m Landsat using three sensors, Landsat 5, Landsat 7 ETM+ and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), with added scenes for each year based on new clear atmosphere requirements. The VIP lab clipped the river boundary and seven riparian reaches from the previously existing ROI used in Jarchow et al. (2017 a, b) for the analyses done under Minute 319. The NASA image datasets for this riparian corridor ROI in seven reaches were re-processed to produce additional vegetation index (VI) information for years 2013 to 2018 for this report. At the same time, the report acquired and processed imagery from 2000- 2018 (data outside the scope of this report and data not shown here). The additional VIs (NDVI, scaled NDVI, EVI, EVI2) were analyzed so that new assessments of greenness and ET could be produced from the imagery datasets following methods in Nagler et al. (2013). These VI choices were based on previous performance comparisons between biophysical ground-based data and radiometric satellite-based data collected from this riparian ecosystem (Nagler et al., 2001) as well as performance related to ET estimation (Nagler et al., 2005a, b) and current advancements in VIs such as EVI2.

Colorado River Delta↗

Interbasin flow in the Great Basin with special reference to the southern Funeral Mountains and the source of Furnace Creek springs, Death Valley, California, U.S.

Interbasin flow in the Great Basin has been established by scientific studies during the past century. While not occurring uniformly between all basins, its occurrence is common and is a function of the hydraulic gradient between basins and hydraulic conductivity of the intervening rocks. The Furnace Creek springs in Death Valley, California are an example of large volume springs that are widely accepted as being the discharge points of regional interbasin flow. The flow path has been interpreted historically to be through consolidated Paleozoic carbonate rocks in the southern Funeral Mountains. This work reviews the preponderance of evidence supporting the concept of interbasin flow in the Death Valley region and the Great Basin and addresses the conceptual model of pluvial and recent recharge [Nelson, S.T., Anderson, K., Mayo, A.L., 2004. Testing the interbasin flow hypothesis at Death Valley, California. EOS 85, 349; Anderson, K., Nelson, S., Mayo, A., Tingey, D., 2006. Interbasin flow revisited: the contribution of local recharge to high-discharge springs, Death Valley, California. Journal of Hydrology 323, 276-302] as the source of the Furnace Creek springs. We find that there is insufficient modern recharge and insufficient storage potential and permeability within the basin-fill units in the Furnace Creek basin for these to serve as a local aquifer. Further, the lack of high sulfate content in the spring waters argues against significant flow through basin-fill sediments and instead suggests flow through underlying consolidated carbonate rocks. The maximum temperature of the spring discharge appears to require deep circulation through consolidated rocks; the Tertiary basin fill is of insufficient thickness to generate such temperatures as a result of local fluid circulation. Finally, the stable isotope data and chemical mass balance modeling actually support the interbasin flow conceptual model rather than the alternative presented in Nelson et al. [Nelson, S.T., Anderson, K., Mayo, A.L., 2004. Testing the interbasin flow hypothesis at Death Valley, California. EOS 85, 349] and Anderson et al. [Anderson, K., Nelson, S., Mayo, A., Tingey, D., 2006. Interbasin flow revisited: the contribution of local recharge to high-discharge springs, Death Valley, California. Journal of Hydrology 323, 276-302]. In light of these inconsistencies, interbasin flow is the only readily apparent explanation for the large spring discharges at Furnace Creek and, in our view, is the likely explanation for most large volume, low elevation springs in the Great Basin. An understanding of hydrogeologic processes that control the rate and direction of ground-water flow in eastern and central Nevada is necessary component of regional water-resource planning and management of alluvial and bedrock aquifers.

Journal of Hydrology↗

A refined index of model performance: a rejoinder

Willmott et al. [Willmott CJ, Robeson SM, Matsuura K. 2012. A refined index of model performance. International Journal of Climatology , forthcoming. DOI:10.1002/joc.2419.] recently suggest a refined index of model performance ( d r ) that they purport to be superior to other methods. Their refined index ranges from − 1.0 to 1.0 to resemble a correlation coefficient, but it is merely a linear rescaling of our modified coefficient of efficiency ( E 1 ) over the positive portion of the domain of d r . We disagree with Willmott et al. ( 2012 ) that d r provides a better interpretation; rather, E 1 is more easily interpreted such that a value of E 1 = 1.0 indicates a perfect model (no errors) while E 1 = 0.0 indicates a model that is no better than the baseline comparison (usually the observed mean). Negative values of E 1 (and, for that matter, d r < 0.5) indicate a substantially flawed model as they simply describe a ‘level of inefficacy’ for a model that is worse than the comparison baseline. Moreover, while d r is piecewise continuous, it is not continuous through the second and higher derivatives. We explain why the coefficient of efficiency ( E or E 2 ) and its modified form ( E 1 ) are superior and preferable to many other statistics, including d r , because of intuitive interpretability and because these indices have a fundamental meaning at zero. We also expand on the discussion begun by Garrick et al. [Garrick M, Cunnane C, Nash JE. 1978. A criterion of efficiency for rainfall-runoff models. Journal of Hydrology 36 : 375-381.] and continued by Legates and McCabe [Legates DR, McCabe GJ. 1999. Evaluating the use of “goodness-of-fit” measures in hydrologic and hydroclimatic model validation. Water Resources Research 35 (1): 233-241.] and Schaefli and Gupta [Schaefli B, Gupta HV. 2007. Do Nash values have value? Hydrological Processes 21 : 2075-2080. DOI: 10.1002/hyp.6825.]. This important discussion focuses on the appropriate baseline comparison to use, and why the observed mean often may be an inadequate choice for model evaluation and development.

International Journal of Climatology↗

Borehole geophysical time-series logging to monitor passive ISCO treatment of residual chlorinated-ethenes in a confining bed, NAS Pensacola, Florida

In-situ chemical oxidation (ISCO) is a common method to remediate chlorinated ethene contaminants in groundwater. Monitoring the effectiveness of ISCO can be hindered because of insufficient observations to assess oxidant delivery. Advantageously, potassium permanganate, one type of oxidant, provides the opportunity to use its strong electrical signal as a surrogate to track oxidant delivery using time-series borehole geophysical methods, like electromagnetic (EM) induction logging. Here we report a passive ISCO (P-ISCO) experiment, using potassium permanganate cylinders emplaced in boreholes, at a chlorinated ethene contamination site, Naval Air Station Pensacola, Florida. The contaminants are found primarily at the base of a shallow sandy aquifer in contact with an underlying silty-clay confining bed. We used results of the time-series borehole logging collected between 2017 and 2022 in 4 monitoring wells to track oxidant delivery. The EM-induction logs from the monitoring wells showed an increase in EM response primarily along the contact, likely from pooling of the oxidant, during P-ISCO treatment in 2021. Interestingly, concurrent natural gamma-ray (NGR) logging showed a decrease in NGR response at 3 of the 4 wells possibly from the formation of manganese precipitates coating sediments. The coupling of time-series logging and well-chemistry data allowed for an improved assessment of passive ISCO treatment effectiveness.

Florida↗

Probability analysis applied to a water-supply problem

The literature on probability techniques applicable to problems in hydrology is abundant but scattered through scientific journals of both hydrology and statistics. Important administrative and judicial decisions presently face water-compact commissions, courts, and water-planning committees. These and other groups might find useful, a brief and simplified discussion of how statistical techniques can aid in analysing problems of water supply. The interest expressed in this subject by various parties to the litigation concerning the Colorado River prompts this publication of material, which was presented in August 1958 before the Special Master of the Supreme Court hearing the proceedings of Arizona v. California et al . The examples presented here are the same as those used in testimony before the Special Master, but there are included the basic computations, which were too detailed to present in the actual testimony. The specific example, which was analyzed in that testimony, was a 61-year series of annual discharge values of the Colorado River at Lees Ferry, 1896 to 1956, inclusive. However, the methodology presented herein is generally applicable to many other streamflow records; and the specific data discussed should be viewed as exemplifying the types of information, which can be obtained from any streamflow record.

Circular↗

Editorial

In our 3 years serving as editors, we have learned to our delight that Water Resources Research is truly the journal of the hydrologic community. Many individuals have expressed to us their sense of ownership of the journal and their passion for the sustained excellence of the journal. This is extremely healthy as it leads to productive discussions in which varying points of view are put forward, all for the purpose of making the journal better. The community decides the future of its journal. For WRR to be strong the community must be engaged, committed, and willing to discuss matters in a way that will enhance the journal. At this time, there are a number of challenges that face Water Resources Research . These are challenges for each member of the hydrologic community to consider.

Water Resources Research↗

Geochemistry of dissolved inorganic carbon in a Coastal Plain aquifer. 2. Modeling carbon sources, sinks, and δ13C evolution

Stable isotope data for dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), carbonate shell material and cements, and microbial CO 2 were combined with organic and inorganic chemical data from aquifer and confining-bed pore waters to construct geochemical reaction models along a flowpath in the Black Creek aquifer of South Carolina. Carbon-isotope fractionation between DIC and precipitating cements was treated as a Rayleigh distillation process. Organic matter oxidation was coupled to microbial fermentation and sulfate reduction. All reaction models reproduced the observed chemical and isotopic compositions of final waters. However, model 1, in which all sources of carbon and electron-acceptors were assumed to be internal to the aquifer, was invalidated owing to the large ratio of fermentation CO 2 to respiration CO 2 predicted by the model (5–49) compared with measured ratios (two or less). In model 2, this ratio was reduced by assuming that confining beds adjacent to the aquifer act as sources of dissolved organic carbon and sulfate. This assumption was based on measured high concentrations of dissolved organic acids and sulfate in confining-bed pore waters (60–100 μM and 100–380 μM, respectively) relative to aquifer pore waters (from less than 30 μM and 2–80 μM, respectively). Sodium was chosen as the companion ion to organic-acid and sulfate transport from confining beds because it is the predominant cation in confining-bed pore waters. As a result, excessive amounts of Na-for-Ca ion exchange and calcite precipitation (three to four times more cement than observed in the aquifer) were required by model 2 to achieve mass and isotope balance of final water. For this reason, model 2 was invalidated. Agreement between model-predicted and measured amounts of carbonate cement and ratios of fermentation CO 2 to respiration CO 2 were obtained in a reaction model that assumed confining beds act as sources of DIC, as well as organic acids and sulfate. This assumption was supported by measured high concentrations of DIC in confining beds (2.6–2.7 mM). Results from this study show that geochemical models of confined aquifer systems must incorporate the effects of adjacent confining beds to reproduce observed groundwater chemistry accurately.

South Carolina↗

Critical steps for the continuing advancement of hydrogeophysics

Special hydrogeophysics issues published by hydrology and geophysics journals, special sessions and workshops at conferences, and an increasing number of short courses demonstrate the growing interest in the use of geophysics for hydrologic investigations. The formation of the hydrogeophysics technical subcommittee of AGU's Hydrology section adds further evidence of the recognized significance of this growing interdisciplinary field. Given the clear value of nondestructive and nonintrusive imaging for subsurface investigations, we believe the advances in the adoption of existing geophysical methods, the development of novel methods, and the merging of geophysical and other data made in hydrogeophysics could be applied to a wide range of geological, environmental, and engineering applications.

Eos Science News↗

Has the magnitude of floods across the USA changed with global CO2 levels?

Statistical relationships between annual floods at 200 long-term (85–127 years of record) streamgauges in the coterminous United States and the global mean carbon dioxide concentration (GMCO2) record are explored. The streamgauge locations are limited to those with little or no regulation or urban development. The coterminous US is divided into four large regions and stationary bootstrapping is used to evaluate if the patterns of these statistical associations are significantly different from what would be expected under the null hypothesis that flood magnitudes are independent of GMCO2. In none of the four regions defined in this study is there strong statistical evidence for flood magnitudes increasing with increasing GMCO2. One region, the southwest, showed a statistically significant negative relationship between GMCO2 and flood magnitudes. The statistical methods applied compensate both for the inter-site correlation of flood magnitudes and the shorter-term (up to a few decades) serial correlation of floods.

Hydrological Sciences Journal↗

Linking hydraulic properties of fire-affected soils to infiltration and water repellency

Heat from wildfires can produce a two-layer system composed of extremely dry soil covered by a layer of ash, which when subjected to rainfall, may produce extreme floods. To understand the soil physics controlling runoff for these initial conditions, we used a small, portable disk infiltrometer to measure two hydraulic properties: (1) near-saturated hydraulic conductivity, K f and (2) sorptivity, S ( θ i ), as a function of initial soil moisture content, θ i , ranging from extremely dry conditions ( θ i < 0.02 cm 3 cm −3 ) to near saturation. In the field and in the laboratory replicate measurements were made of ash, reference soils, soils unaffected by fire, and fire-affected soils. Each has a different degrees of water repellency that influences K f and S ( θ i ). Values of K f ranged from 4.5 × 10 −3 to 53 × 10 −3 cm s −1 for ash; from 0.93 × 10 −3 to 130 × 10 −3 cm s −1 for reference soils; and from 0.86 × 10 −3 to 3.0 × 10 −3 cm s −1 , for soil unaffected by fire, which had the lowest values of K f . Measurements indicated that S ( θ i ) could be represented by an empirical non-linear function of θ i with a sorptivity maximum of 0.18–0.20 cm s −0.5 , between 0.03 and 0.08 cm 3 cm −3 . This functional form differs from the monotonically decreasing non-linear functions often used to represent S ( θ i ) for rainfall–runoff modeling. The sorptivity maximum may represent the combined effects of gravity, capillarity, and adsorption in a transitional domain corresponding to extremely dry soil, and moreover, it may explain the observed non-linear behavior, and the critical soil-moisture threshold of water repellent soils. Laboratory measurements of K f and S ( θ i ) are the first for ash and fire-affected soil, but additional measurements are needed of these hydraulic properties for in situ fire-affected soils. They provide insight into water repellency behavior and infiltration under extremely dry conditions. Most importantly, they indicate how existing rainfall–runoff models can be modified to accommodate a possible two-layer system in extremely dry conditions. These modified models can be used to predict floods from burned watersheds under these initial conditions.

Journal of Hydrology↗

On the nature of persistence in dendrochronologic records with implications for hydrology

Hydrologic processes are generally held to be persistent and not secularly independent. Impetus for this view was given by Hurst in his work which dealt with properties of the rescaled range of many types of long geophysical records, in particular dendrochronologic records, in addition to hydrologic records. Mandelbrot introduced an infinite memory stationary process, the fractional Gaussian noise process (F), as an explanation for Hurst's observations. This is in contrast to other explanations which have been predicated on the implicit non-stationarity of the process underlying the construction of the records. In this work, we introduce a stationary finite memory process which arises naturally from a physical concept and show that it can accommodate the persistence structures observed for dendrochronological records more successfully than an F or any other of a family of related processes examined herein. Further, some question arises as to the empirical plausibility of an F process. Dendrochronologic records are used because they are widely held to be surrogates for records of average hydrologic phenomena and the length of these records allows one to explore questions of stochastic process structure which cannot be explored with great validity in the case of generally much shorter hydrologic records.

Journal of Hydrology↗

Using 222Rn to examine groundwater/surface discharge interaction in the Rio Grande de Manati, Puerto Rico

222 Rn was used in the karst drainage basin of the Rio Grande de Manati in Puerto Rico to study groundwater/surface flow relationships. Locations of groundwater influx along two sections of the Rio Grande de Manati were identified. The 222 Rn measurements were used together with stream discharge data in a mass balance equation to quantify the groundwater inputs. The investigation established that both of the sections of the Rio Manati surveyed not only gained groundwater, but lost surface flow. It was calculated that the river gained about 1.2m 3 s −1 and lost 0.5m 3 s −1 to the aquifer between Ciales and United States Geological Survey gauging station 5. Between United States Geological Survey gauging stations 6 and 7, groundwater influx and stream flow loss occurred simultaneously with groundwater inputs equalling surface discharge losses of 4m 3 s −1 . The study successfully demonstrated the innovative application of 222 Rn as a geochemical tracer in examining groundwater/surface flow relationships in a karst system.

Puerto Rico↗

Transport and concentration controls for chloride, strontium, potassium and lead in Uvas Creek, a small cobble-bed stream in Santa Clara County, California, U.S.A.: 1. Conceptual model

Stream sediments adsorb certain solutes from streams, thereby significantly changing the solute composition; but little is known about the details and rates of these adsorptive processes. To investigate such processes, a 24-hr. injection of a solution containing chloride, strontium, potassium, sodium and lead was made at the head of a 640-m reach of Uvas Creek in west-central Santa Clara County, California. Uvas Creek is a cobble-bed pool-and-riffle stream draining the eastern slopes of the Santa Cruz Mountains. By September 12, 1973, after a long dry season, Uvas Creek had a low (0.0215 m 3 s −1 average) flow which varied diurnally, from 0.018 to 0.025 m 3 s −1 . Because stream discharge varied while the injection rate was constant, the concentration of tracers (injected solutes), after mixing in the stream, varied inversely with discharge. Chloride, a nonreactive solute, served as a tracer of water movement. Analysis of extensive chloride concentration data at five sites below the injection point during and after the injection demonstrated that there was considerable underflow of water through the stream gravels; however, the extent of underflow varied greatly within the study reach. Pre-injection water, displaced by tracer-laden water percolating through the gravels, diluted tracers in the stream channel, giving the mistaken impression of groundwater inflow at some points. Accurate measurement of total discharge in such streams requires prolonged tracer injection unless a reach can be found where underflow is negligible. Strontium and potassium were adsorbed by the bed sediments to a moderate extent and lead was strongly adsorbed. A high proportion of these metals could be removed by adsorption from percolating underflow because of extensive and intimate contact with bed sediments. After channel clearing following injection cutoff, 51% of the added strontium and 96% of the lead remained in the study reach, whereas only 19% of the chloride remained. Packets of sized sediment, placed in the stream before the experiment and withdrawn during and after the injection, indicated that the strontium absorbed on the 0.42–0.50-mm size sediment appeared to achieve near equilibrium with dissolved strontium within less than 2 hr. whereas 3.4–4.0-mm grains had not reached that stage after 24 hr. The cation-exchange capacity (CEC) of the sediments shows a “bimodal” distribution with grain size. Largest values are in the finest sizes, lower values in the fine-to-medium sand-size range, intermediate values in the coarse- to very coarse-grained sand, and decreasing values with size above very coarse-grained sand. This considerable exchange capacity in coarse-sand to granule-size particles means that a streambed, that has not been infilled with fines to reduce permeability, can be highly reactive and accessible throughout a rather thick sediment layer and hence have a large and available reactive capacity. As stream discharge increases from low flow, the ratio of underflow to channel flow should decrease rapidly with resultant diminution in percent of solutes sorbed within a particular stream reach.

California↗

Multivariate analyses with end-member mixing to characterize groundwater flow: Wind Cave and associated aquifers

Principal component analysis (PCA) applied to hydrochemical data has been used with end-member mixing to characterize groundwater flow to a limited extent, but aspects of this approach are unresolved. Previous similar approaches typically have assumed that the extreme-value samples identified by PCA represent end members. The method presented herein is different from previous work in that (1) end members were not assumed to have been sampled but rather were estimated and constrained by prior knowledge; (2) end-member mixing was quantified in relation to hydrogeologic domains, which focuses model results on major hydrologic processes; (3) a method to select an appropriate number of end members using a series of cluster analyses is presented; and (4) conservative tracers were weighted preferentially in model calibration, which distributed model errors of optimized values, or residuals, more appropriately than would otherwise be the case. The latter item also provides an estimate of the relative influence of geochemical evolution along flow paths in comparison to mixing. This method was applied to groundwater in Wind Cave and the associated karst aquifer in the Black Hills of South Dakota, USA. The end-member mixing model was used to test a hypothesis that five different end-member waters are mixed in the groundwater system comprising five hydrogeologic domains. The model estimated that Wind Cave received most of its groundwater inflow from local surface recharge with an additional 33% from an upgradient aquifer. Artesian springs in the vicinity of Wind Cave primarily received water from regional groundwater flow.

South Dakota↗