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26 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2026

Prioritizing resource protection and understanding potential susceptibility of springs to surficial changes in a low-temperature geothermal system

Geothermal systems are vulnerable to changes in water budget and composition, requiring science-based management. This study uses a dataset of spring water temperatures, time series of groundwater residence time tracers (tritium and carbon-14), and stable isotopes of water to understand geothermal flow in a low-temperature geothermal system in north west Colorado, United States (Steamboat Springs). The geothermal system is bisected by the Yampa River, necessitating a stream mass balance approach to quantify total discharge. Time series analysis of water temperature data provides a ranked list of features more susceptible to surficial changes, which is corroborated using time series of tritium which indicate spatially distinct patterns of mixing between modern and pre-modern groundwater. All springs contain a portion of pre-modern groundwater that is thousands to tens of thousands of years old, a period coinciding with melting of extensive Pleistocene glaciers that was likely one of the recharge sources to the geothermal system. Stream mass balance indicates that greater than 80% of the total geothermal discharge is derived from diffuse or small springs, highlighting the extensive nature of the geothermal outflow zone and the association with local geologic structures. This study provides baseline data to support management of the Steamboat Springs geothermal system and indicates the utility of these approaches in developing science-based geothermal management.

Colorado↗
USGS2026

Open-source gravity reduction workflows for geothermal resource assessment

Potential-field geophysical data such as gravity can enhance understanding of geothermal resources at all stages of the resource life cycle, including assessment, exploration, development, and monitoring, and at multiple scales, from the reservoir scale to regional scale. However, to make gravity data useful for geothermal resource characterization, several processing steps are required to isolate the effects of density variations in the Earth’s crust to enable the identification of structural features associated with geothermal resources. Although this process is well-established, standard computational implementations for processing gravity data that are FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reproduceable) are still lacking. This paper details ongoing efforts at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to develop a standard set of open-source Python tools for gravity data reduction that align with the FAIR principles. This workflow makes use of existing open-source tools for geophysical data processing with the goal of maximizing opportunities for rapid improvements, interoperability, and adaptability to other types of geophysical data.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2026

Stepovers and beyond: Structural control of The Geysers geothermal system and the broader Clear Lake region

Fault geometry exerts a first-order control on geothermal systems by governing stress localization, fracture development, and permeability, yet in complex fault networks or broader shear zones, the relative influence of individual geometric features is often difficult to resolve. In the northern California Coast Ranges, The Geysers geothermal field is commonly interpreted to occur within a releasing stepover, although no single, clearly defined stepover is identified in published studies. To investigate the structural controls on The Geysers and the broader Clear Lake region, a two-dimensional elastic boundary element model is developed to evaluate spatial patterns of dilational strain associated with progressively more complete fault geometries. Model results show that dilation in the region is not controlled by a single structure but instead reflects the combined effects of multiple interacting fault elements. Three primary controls are identified: (1) opposing bends in the regional strike-slip fault system, including a releasing bend along the Maacama fault; (2) the southern fault tip of the Collayomi fault, which generates a prominent dilational lobe beneath the southern Geysers; and (3) a releasing stepover between the Collayomi fault and the Geyser Peak–Mercuryville–Big Sulphur Creek fault system, inferred to collectively behave as a right-lateral shear zone bounding the western margin of The Geysers. Predicted dilational strain magnitudes are sufficient to localize permeability between faults. These results highlight that incorporating complete fault networks and bedrock geological mapping can enhance geothermal assessments and provide a transferable framework for evaluating structurally controlled permeability in tectonically active regions.

California↗
USGS2025

Detecting hidden sedimentary geothermal systems in the Upper Colorado River Basin

Geothermal resources exist in sedimentary rock where circulation of water for efficient extraction or storage of heat is possible. Except in rare instances where hot water is expressed at the land surface, sedimentary geothermal resources are hidden, so the identification of these systems is optimally accomplished using predictive subsurface modeling. An integrated approach using detailed paleogeographic interpretations, subsurface geologic mapping, and numerical modeling has produced regional geologic and temperature models for the Upper Colorado River Basin, a large watershed in central North America that contains many sedimentary basins. These models identify areas of hidden sedimentary geothermal resource potential in low temperature (<90°C), moderate temperature (90–150°C), and high temperature (>150°C) fairways across the study area. These models incorporate maps of key horizons in outcrop and the subsurface to create a robust structural framework that can be used to target favorable geology for natural or engineered permeability. This framework is populated with lithologies derived from detailed palaeogeographical maps and over 40,000 bottom hole temperature (BHT) values were used to create a calibrated three-dimensional (3D) temperature model across the region. The resulting maps serve as a regional sedimentary geothermal play fairway screening tool for evaluating different grades of sedimentary geothermal resources and for identifying areas of interest where more detailed, prospect-scale studies can be undertaken.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗
USGS2026

Rapid hydrothermal triggering of induced seismicity at the Coso Geothermal Field

The long-term producing Coso Geothermal Field (CGF) in California operates over 100 wells tapping into a reservoir characterized by an extensive fracture network, complex fluid pathways, and regular seismic activity. Understanding the interaction between seismicity and injection can shed important light on the hydrothermal characteristics of the field. Here, we analyze 15 years of local seismic and daily operational data from the CGF, identifying a strong correlation between short-term increase in seismicity rate and seasonal volumetric and temperature variations in the reinjected fluid. Furthermore, the seismic footprint during peak injection of colder fluids reveals a near-instantaneous response up to 2 km away from the injection well, too rapid for pore pressure diffusion alone. This short-term and distant response is observed to have directional preference, indicating structural or permeability anisotropy within the reservoir. Additionally, the seismic response correlates with the initial volumetric increase of colder fluids, but also with temperature decrease during stable injection periods, suggesting thermal effects alone can play an important role in triggering distant seismicity.

California↗
USGS2026

Geothermal district energy systems coupled with seasonal underground thermal energy storage: A U.S. techno-economic screening by climate and geology

In the United States, cooling-dominated commercial building loads can cause geothermal heat pump-based district energy systems to accumulate a long-term subsurface thermal imbalance, motivating the incorporation of seasonal underground thermal energy storage. We developed a transferable workflow to evaluate geothermal district systems that pair ground heat exchangers with seasonal underground thermal energy storage. Using standardized hourly loads for seven commercial buildings and a uniform cost framework, we simulated ten U.S. cities with a physics-based ground heat exchanger model, subsurface storage simulations, and economic assessment to isolate the roles of climate and hydrogeology. In cooling-dominated cities, underground thermal energy storage supplied the majority of annual cooling, cutting electricity use and summer peaks substantially while achieving levelized costs comparable to or below conventional chiller-boiler plants. In cooler climates, the storage share shrunk, required borefield size and costs rose, and levelized cost of energy increased nearly linearly with declining underground thermal energy storage fraction, indicating storage fraction as the primary economic lever. Sensitivity analysis showed capital risk dominated by borefield drilling and surface heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning and piping, with underground thermal energy storage costs secondary. This workflow provides a transparent foundation for site-specific design and screening of next-generation geothermal district energy systems.

Arizona, Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Mississippi↗
USGS2025

Estimation of the accessible and useful resource base for electric-grade enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) resources of the Great Basin, USA

Scientists with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) recently completed a provisional assessment of the electric-grade geothermal resources associated with the low-permeability geologic formations of the Great Basin, USA, where resources are assumed to be accessible using enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) technologies (i.e., the engineering of sufficient permeability to facilitate efficient heat extraction). This assessment required estimation of the accessible resource base (electric-grade heat [>90ºC] at depths where drilling and stimulation are deemed achievable using current technology) and useful resource (heat that can be extracted from the accessible region). Electric-grade heat can be estimated from existing temperature models. The accessible resource base can be estimated as the electric-grade heat that exists at depths shallower than 6 km based on the limitations of current drilling and stimulation technologies, along with evidence for sustained natural fracture conductivity at depth. The useful part of the accessible heat can be estimated as the product of three efficiencies and factors: the heat extraction efficiency, the viable geology factor, and the reservoir spacing efficiency. The accessible and useful parts of the resource can be estimated in units of heat, or in units of electric power using an electrical conversion efficiency, which is a function of resource temperature. We also estimate the ranges for each of the efficiencies and describe the motivations behind the choice of best estimates used for the recent assessment. An analytic solution is provided for the useful resource above any depth (in units of electric power), where efficiency estimation assumes nearly steady heat extraction rates that cool reservoirs to 90ºC over 30 years of power generation.

Great Basin↗
USGS2025

Favorability mapping for hydrothermal power resource assessments of the Great Basin, USA

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is updating the 2008 assessment of conventional hydrothermal resources for the Great Basin in the western United States. As part of this work, the workflow for hydrothermal resource favorability maps is being modified to integrate modern data-driven machine learning (ML) methods. Improvements include: [1] using new and refined evidence layers (features); [2] using an order of magnitude more training sites (labeled examples); [3] utilizing simple but non-linear supervised ML algorithms; [4] representing positive training sites (wells with measured heat flow) with their ordinal value proportional to the magnitude of convective upflow (i.e., low, high, or very high convective signals instead of past strategies using positive-negative labels); [5] supplementing training sites with additional sites with low convective signals to represent diverse under-sampled areas where hydrothermal systems are unlikely to exist; [6] comparing with competing approaches; and [7] utilizing Monte Carlo cross-validation to estimate and evaluate prediction uncertainty. For the new favorability map, over half of the power-producing systems (i.e., 15 of 28) are predicted in the 99th percentile of most favorable locations (i.e., the highest 1 % of favorability, corresponding to 1 % of the map area), exceeding the performance of past models that have explicitly used power plants as training sites. Previous favorability maps predicted approximately half of the power-producing hydrothermal systems above the 80th percentile (i.e., 20 % of the map area). For the new favorability map, 93 % of power-producing systems (i.e., 26 of 28) are above the 80th percentile. The power-producing systems for which the new model does not perform well are either comparatively small, low-temperature systems or systems also not predicted well by prior modeling approaches, suggesting that these few systems are unusual when compared with most power-producing systems. Focusing research on these known, seemingly different systems may yield new insights and subsequent discovery of new prospects.

California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah↗
USGS2025

Evolution of permeability and strength recovery of shear fracture under hydrothermal conditions

Geothermal energy is a clean and renewable resource that depends on the ability to move water through hot rock. In many locations, the ability to move water through rock requires the presence of extensive natural or human-made systems of fractures. However, these fracture systems are influenced by a variety of complex processes that occur at the temperature and pressure conditions found in geothermal reservoirs. To make geothermal systems more efficient, it is important to understand how these fractures evolve over time in response to these processes. This study explored how fractures in rock change under high-temperature and pressure conditions, like those found in geothermal reservoirs, through laboratory experiments and numerical simulations. In general fractures, tend to close due to pressure from the surrounding rock preventing the flow of water. One set of laboratory experiments revealed that fractures in granitic rock can weaken over time at elevated temperatures. These weak fractures can then slip slowly potentially keeping the fracture open for a longer period. This study also showed that at the highest temperature examined (250 °C) large differences between the chemical composition of the rock and the fluid moving through it could improve water flow temporarily likely due to the water dissolving parts of the rock. Flow rate predicted by models shows overall good agreement with the flow rate measured in our experiments but with some long time-scale variations that may be due to mechanical wear of the fracture surface. A second set of experiments found that, over the temperature range examined, the closure of fractures was caused by brittle failure driven by high stresses at points where fracture surfaces were in contact. This result suggests that fracture closure in geothermal reservoirs could be counteracted by maintaining high pore pressures. Additionally, we also tested a new method using electrical resistance to measure fracture closure in controlled systems with high precision.

Final Technical Report↗
USGS2026

Seismic characteristics of the April 2024 eruption of Ruang Volcano, North Sulawesi, Indonesia

The two most recent eruptions of Ruang volcano, in 2002 and 2024, have been large (VEI 4) with very short precursory periods, 3 and 6 days, respectively. Background seismicity at Ruang volcano is generally low with 0–2 volcano-tectonic (VT) earthquakes per day. The 2024 eruptions were preceded by a notable increase in VT earthquakes from 11 to 15 April with a rapid escalation from 16 to 17 April in the form of increased VT swarms, and the appearance of low frequency earthquakes and short bursts of VT drumbeats shortly before the eruption. Similar VT seismic unrest was recorded in March 2015, May 2016, and April 2022, although none of these episodes culminated in an eruption. A comparison of seismic energy release between April 2022 and April 2024 shows distinct differences. In 2024, cumulative seismic energy reached its peak within 5 days, just before the onset of eruption on 17 April. In contrast, during the 2022-episode, energy release followed a more gradual increase over 8 days peaking on 16 April, then declining gradually without leading to eruption. Notably, low frequency (LF) and drumbeat earthquakes were absent in non-eruptive unrest episodes. The transition to proximal LFs in 2024 likely signals pressure fluctuations, intensified magma degassing, and conduit formation, acting as an important precursor to eruption. Additionally, the occurrence of short bursts of drumbeat seismicity likely reflects the onset of the shallow magma ascent and was an important short-term precursor to the eruption. Finally, we examine the potential influence of regional tectonic earthquakes on the escalation of precursory unrest in 2024.

North Sulawesi, Ruang volcano↗
USGS2025

Gas emissions from the Sulphur Bank Mercury Mine hydrothermal system, Clear Lake volcanic field, California

The Sulphur Bank Mercury Mine (SBMM) hydrothermal system offers insights into active degassing processes in the Clear Lake volcanic field (CLVF), a high-threat region based on its record of Holocene eruptions and proximity to populated areas. Here we present chemical and isotopic analyses of gas samples collected between 2015 and 2023, along with the first comprehensive CO 2 flux survey of the SBMM area conducted in 2023. Sampled gases are CO 2 - and CH 4 -rich (≥84 and 6 mol% in dry gas, respectively) with high mantle-derived helium contributions ( 3 He/ 4 He = 6.54–7.86 R C /R A ). Carbon isotopic compositions of CO 2 (δ 13 C = −10.0 to −9.5 ‰) and CH 4 (δ 13 C = −35.8 ‰) indicate mixed sources, with significant contributions from metamorphism of organic-rich Franciscan Complex rocks hosting the hydrothermal system. Modeling of gas compositions shows that scrubbing by interaction with air-saturated groundwater strongly influences observed compositional variability. From our CO₂ flux measurements, we estimate the deeply derived CO 2 emission rate from the SBMM hydrothermal area (0.2 km 2 ) at 240 t d −1 , comparable to many quiescently degassing volcanoes worldwide. We also provide a first-order estimate of CH 4 emissions at approximately 0.5 t d −1 . Our findings establish crucial baseline data for future volcanic monitoring efforts, enhancing detection capabilities for potential changes in this active hydrothermal system. This work contributes to the broader understanding of volatile contributions from volcanic and metamorphic sources to the global carbon budget, while highlighting the strong influence of bedrock geology on gas compositions in the CLVF.

California↗
USGS2026

The petrogenesis of Þingmúli volcano, East Fjords, Iceland

In this work we revisit Þingmúli volcano (Þ = Th), a classic locality known as an example of a complete tholeiitic differentiation. Þingmúli is a ~ 9.5 Ma extinct central volcano located in the East Fjords of Iceland, in which the whole compositional spectrum from basalt to rhyolites have erupted. These volcanic products have been previously considered as petrogenetically related by an ideal fractionation trend, regardless any temporal relationship or volumetric considerations. Here we report new whole-rock geochemistry, mineral chemistry, isotope analyses, estimation of residence times of the different eruptive deposits, and an update of the original petrogenetic model. Our results highlight that an enriched source, likely spinel lherzolites, generated transitional-alkaline basaltic melts after 15–20% of partial melting at depths of 40–45 km. Many of these basaltic melts erupted at various stages of the volcano's history, while others remained longer in the volcanic plumbing system. These evolved by fractional crystallisation into basaltic andesite magmas with a residence time of ~5 years based on the crystal size distribution of the plagioclase population. Isotopic differences between the basalts/basaltic andesites ( 87 Sr/ 86 Sr ~ 0.7034; 143 Nd/ 144 Nd ~ 0.51315) and the erupted rhyolites ( 87 Sr/ 86 Sr ~ 0.7037; 143 Nd/ 144 Nd ~ 0.51304) indicate that the latter are not petrogenetically related to the former. Therefore, instead of a fractional crystallisation mechanism to generate the rhyolites, we propose the partial melting of ignimbrite layers located beneath the volcano. The broad range of trace element concentrations in andesites and dacites and their different isotopic values compared to the basalts strongly suggest that these magmas have been generated by magma mixing between basaltic and rhyolitic melts, similar to modern day Icelandic volcanoes such as Hekla. These results highlight the need to revisit previously studied Icelandic classic localities and reassess their traditionally proposed petrogenetic models.

Þingmúli volcano, East Fjords↗
USGS2026

Mineral chemistry perspective on remobilization of stored magma at Kamakai'a Hills, Southwest Rift Zone of Kilauea, Island of Hawai'i, USA

Differentiated magmas stored in the rift zones of Kīlauea have received more attention in recent years following eruption of andesite during the early phase of 2018 lower East Rift Zone activity. Despite this growing interest, some of the most voluminous eruptions of differentiated rift zone magmas remain poorly studied. One such eruption, and the most voluminous exposed differentiated flow field at Kīlauea, is the Kamakaiʻa Hills. This eruption took place in the Southwest Rift Zone of Kīlauea, a region that is hypothesized to contain a long-lived rift zone reservoir. The Kamakaiʻa Hills flow field encompasses >250 × 10 6 m 3 of basaltic andesite and basalt compositions with a mineral assemblage of orthopyroxene + clinopyroxene + plagioclase during its early ʻaʻā phase and clinopyroxene + plagioclase + olivine during its late pāhoehoe phase. To better understand storage conditions and magma accumulation, this study focuses on major, minor, and trace elements from the mineral assemblage present within the early ʻaʻā and late pāhoehoe phases. The diversity of clinopyroxene and plagioclase compositions within the early ʻaʻā and late pāhoehoe phases, as well as diverse compositions of plagioclase and orthopyroxene within the early ʻaʻā phase, suggest multiple magma bodies and limited pre-eruption magma mixing within the broader Kamakaiʻa Hills reservoir. Oscillatory zoning patterns (particularly in clinopyroxene) imply processes such as recharge events, magma mixing or mingling, or convection within a differentially cooling, chemically stratified reservoir over protracted time intervals, whereas only limited resorbed mineral textures indicate incomplete mixing of heat and chemically distinct magmas during the dike intrusion that triggered the eruption. Mineral-mineral and mineral-melt thermobarometry indicate predominantly shallow (≤2.5 km depth) crustal storage conditions of the cooled, differentiated magma (∼1100 °C and cooler for the basaltic andesites) to hotter temperatures for the basalts (all >1100 °C). Despite the known large standard errors estimated for mineral-melt and mineral-mineral barometry (10s to >100 MPa), the calculated pressures and depths broadly correspond with earthquake swarm depths beneath the Kamakaiʻa Hills, and drill core and fluid inclusion barometry storage depths of differentiated magmas within the lower East Rift Zone. The Kamakaiʻa Hills differentiated magmas have H 2 O contents (∼0.5 wt%, using plagioclase-melt hygrometry) equivalent to typical Kīlauea basalts. Our data and interpretations demonstrate a complex, long-lived rift zone storage system that consisted of multiple magma bodies and was mobilized into eruption through intrusion of a hotter and more primitive summit-derived (uprift) magma.

Hawaii↗
USGS2026

Small-volume tephra deposits of the May 1924 explosions from Halemaʻumaʻu, Kīlauea volcano, and their origin

More than 50 explosive eruptions occurred from Halemaʻumaʻu at Kīlauea volcano over 17 days from May 11 to 27, 1924. Ballistics weighing as much as 14,000 kg were ejected and most landed within 2 km of the vent. Fine ash made up a major component of the tephra and was dispersed tens of kilometers downwind. Draining of the Halemaʻumaʻu lava lake occurred in late February 1924, with the crater floor eventually subsiding by a further ∼70 m (to ∼180 m below the crater rim) by the time the first explosions took place during the night of May 10–11. The largest explosions occurred on May 17–18 and smaller explosions continued until May 27, at which point Halemaʻumaʻu had more than doubled in width and depth. The explosions generated plumes reaching up to ∼10 km high with ballistics ejected up to 2 km from the crater. Almost 100 years later, we investigate and characterize the preserved tephra deposits within ∼3 km of the 1924 crater rim. Grain size and shape analyses were performed on 202 samples collected from 34 tephra profiles using dynamic image analysis, with a subset of layers from nine tephra profiles used for componentry (200 grains per layer in the 0.5–1 mm size fraction). Additionally, we characterize the average diameters (using the five largest clasts) at 216 locations and measure the average diameters of 2291 ballistics (largest per ∼100 m 2 area). Physical descriptions from fieldwork and grain size distributions were used to subdivide the tephra layers into five lithofacies: coarse homogeneous, fine homogenous, red ash, accretionary lapilli-bearing, and finely laminated. Grain size versus shape data show a range of values that demonstrate most grains are dense, smooth, and equant, in alignment with lithic clasts dominating the tephra componentry. The fine grained and accretionary lapilli-bearing nature of some of these lithofacies confirms that water influenced the style of the explosions. However, we also note juvenile clasts within many of the tephra layers, indicating that many of the layers were formed during phreatomagmatic explosions (sensu stricto), despite the eruptive mechanism being dominantly phreatic. Juvenile clasts are more abundant higher in the tephra profiles, suggesting that juvenile magma was more involved later in the explosive sequence. Thermal and hydrologic modeling indicate that groundwater inflow into a short-lived, small-diameter volcanic conduit (10-m to 120-m-diameter used for modeling) during the 78–85 days preceding the first explosion provides a physically plausible mechanism for this eruptive sequence.

Hawaii↗
USGS2025

Evaluating the potential of co-located non-petroleum energy resources in the Gulf Coast using play fairwayaAnalysis

Geological resources critical to the energy transition, such as sedimentary geothermal, carbon storage potential, and lithium in brines, commonly struggle for economic feasibility as stand-alone developments but can have greater viability when the potential for more than one of these resources exist within the same reservoir or stacked in different stratigraphic intervals. There may also be instances where development of one resource inhibits development of others and decisions need to be made on how to best prioritize the use of those resources in the subsurface. Subsurface data sets were analyzed and integrated to evaluate the distribution of non-petroleum energy and related resources in the onshore and nearshore U.S. Gulf Coast. Temperature, pressure, brine composition (lithium content), and reservoir quality data for thirty-four depositional units have been compiled and visualized to high-grade areas where multiple resource opportunities likely coexist. For sedimentary geothermal, possible resource areas are defined as low potential (<90°C), moderate potential (90–150°C), and high potential (>150°C). For CO 2 storage, high potential areas exhibit supercritical CO 2 conditions less than 80% of the fracture gradient. Areas with pore pressure between 80% and 100% of the fracture gradient are considered to exhibit moderate potential and areas where the fracture gradient is equal to or greater than 100% are assigned low potential. Lithium resources in brines were defined by lithium concentrations as low potential (<100ppm), moderate potential (100-200ppm), or high potential (>200ppm). Reservoir quality affects the viability of all three of these resources and is evaluated using depositional environment maps of each unit. The resulting play fairway maps can be used for regional scale screening evaluations of these resources and to identify areas of interest where more detailed, prospect-scale studies can be undertaken.

Gulf Coast↗
USGS2025

Flow heterogeneity controls dissolution dynamics in topologically complex rocks

Rock dissolution is a common subsurface geochemical reaction affecting pore space properties, crucial for reservoir stimulation, carbon storage, and geothermal energy. Predictive models for dissolution remain limited due to incomplete understanding of the mechanisms involved. We examine the influence of flow, transport, and reaction regimes on mineral dissolution using 29 time-resolved data from 3D rocks. We find that initial pore structure significantly influences the dissolution pattern, with reaction rates up to two orders of magnitude lower than batch conditions, given solute and fluid-solid boundary constraints. Flow unevenness determines the location and rate of dissolution. We propose two models describing expected dissolution patterns and effective reaction rates based on dimensionless metrics for flow, transport, and reaction. Finally, we analyze feedback between evolving flow and pore structure to understand conditions that regulate/reinforce dissolution hotspots. Our findings underscore the major impact of flow arrangement on reaction-front propagation and provide a foundation for controlling dissolution hotspots.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2025

Preventing overfitting when using tree-based methods for mapping hydrothermal favorability

Ensemble tree-based algorithms are robust tools for estimating sparsely distributed resources with non-linear dependencies (e.g., hydrothermal systems). These algorithms naturally accommodate the threshold conditions necessary to enable and support hydrothermal systems (e.g., having sufficient heat and permeability) and are simpler than many other non-linear machine learning strategies (e.g., artificial neural networks), which is an advantage when working with few labeled examples from which to learn. In previous work, we used eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) to produce regional prediction and uncertainty maps of hydrothermal favorability; however, recent studies suggest that, even when properly applied, XGBoost has some risk of overfitting when there are few labeled examples from which to learn. To evaluate overfitting when constructing hydrothermal favorability maps with tree-based methods, we compare XGBoost with Extremely Randomized Trees (ExtraTrees), another ensemble tree-based algorithm that has the potential to underfit when using few labeled examples. We hold all other modeling parameters constant, resulting in two contrasting favorability maps of conventional geothermal resources for the Great Basin. Our results indicate that ExtraTrees demonstrably reduces overfitting compared with XGBoost. After considering overall performance, we conclude that ExtraTrees provides a more suitable modeling approach than XGBoost for the purposes of conventional hydrothermal resource assessments.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2026

Compact seismicity bursts have different characteristics from regional seismicity

Earthquakes tend to cluster, developing into sequences driven by stress perturbations and transient fault-zone processes. Depending on the driving process, earthquake sequences show differing behaviors. This variability challenges our ability to observe or distinguish these driving processes in high resolution. Here we systematically identify seismicity bursts throughout southern California using new statistical methods and examine their causes with other independent geophysical observations. Seismicity bursts are defined as statistically significant seismicity rate anomalies. Our approach has the advantage of being data driven, depending on few earthquake occurrence assumptions. We find abundant seismicity bursts across southern California, most frequently occurring along the San Jacinto Fault and in the Salton Sea and Coso geothermal fields. These seismicity bursts are highly compact in space and time, often encompassed by a 5 km radius and have durations less than 10 hr. Many of the seismicity bursts have their largest earthquake near the beginning of the sequence, but the largest earthquake is usually not an obvious mainshock. We utilize a variety of independent geophysical data sets to analyze the characteristics of the seismicity bursts, finding that the seismicity bursts have low b-values, low spectral stress drops, and varied stress ratios compared to regional seismicity. These differences suggest that seismicity bursts are driven by transient processes acting frequently across fault networks.

California↗