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Results for “Geophysical Research Letters”

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328 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2026

Subsurface vertical connectivity shapes solute transport to montane streams: Insights from watershed-scale geophysics-informed modeling

Headwater catchments provide essential water and nutrients to downstream ecosystems. The timing and evolution of their transport is shaped in part by the “invisible” subsurface structure but have been largely unexplored at the watershed scale. This raises a fundamental question: how and to what extent does subsurface structure influence streamflow and solute transport in montane watersheds? Here, we test controls of three-dimensionally resolved subsurface structure on solute transport, which reflects source waters and water residence time. We integrate the geophysically mapped architecture of Coal Creek, a headwater catchment in the Colorado River Basin, into numerical flow-transport models. Our results reveal greater vertical connectivity elongates flow paths and enhances deep groundwater contributions to streams, therefore substantially influencing the timing and magnitude of solute transport. In contrast, watershed-integrated outlet discharge can be predicted without high-resolution subsurface information. These findings demonstrate incorporating subsurface architecture is critical for predicting ecosystem health and contaminant transport.

Colorado↗
USGS2025

Mechanics and statistics of postseismic shaking

Analysis of two weeks of continuous post-seismic shaking after the 2019 M7.1 Ridgecrest, CA earthquake sequence using 4 nearby borehole seismometers reveals that continuous ground motions decay as Omori’s law in time and follow the Gutenberg-Richter distribution in logarithmic amplitude. The measured temporal decay in amplitudes agrees with predictions of the rate-and-state framework and indicates shaking amplitudes are proportional to the velocity of afterslip. Our ground motion-based statistical framework provides a basis to forecast shaking intensity in the minutes to hours after a large earthquake.

California↗
USGS2025

S/P amplitude ratios with Distributed Acoustic Sensing and application to earthquake focal mechanisms

Distributed acoustic sensing (DAS), which transforms a fiber optic cable into an array of high frequency strainmeters, has the potential to help us characterize earthquakes with a dense sampling of measurements. While earthquake focal mechanisms are frequently determined using P -wave polarities and S / P amplitude ratios with inertial seismometers, the dense sampling of DAS over potentially large portions of the focal sphere can aid our solutions. Here, we consider ∼200 regional earthquakes and thousands of S / P measurements on a DAS cable colocated with a network of inertial seismometers near Arcata, California. We demonstrate the S / P ratio measurements made on DAS are similar to those made on the inertial seismometers and can be used to constrain focal mechanism solutions.

California↗
USGS2026

Emergent headwater types for watershed monitoring, research, and planning

Headwaters—that is headwater streams and the watersheds they drain—strongly influence water quality, ecosystem services, and hydrologic connectivity, yet remain poorly mapped, monitored, and understood at large spatial scales. Using available spatial data to classify headwater “types” could therefore enhance the utility of sparse monitoring data to advance research and watershed planning—and help update literature-based perceptual models of headwaters as steep, forested, and minimally disturbed watersheds. Here, we analyze headwaters across the contiguous United States to quantify how their attributes (climate, topography, land cover, soils) vary regionally and differ from their downstream watersheds. Our analysis (a) identified seven dominant headwater types with distinct combinations of biophysical and climatic attributes and (b) revealed systematic contrasts with downstream watersheds, with strongest differences in attributes representing potential flowpath depth. Our findings offer a transferable framework for classifying, modeling, and managing these critical yet understudied components of the hydrologic network.

conterminous United States↗
USGS2024

GRAPES: Earthquake early warning by passing seismic vectors through the grapevine

Estimating an earthquake's magnitude and location may not be necessary to predict shaking in real time; instead, wavefield-based approaches predict shaking with few assumptions about the seismic source. Here, we introduce GRAph Prediction of Earthquake Shaking (GRAPES), a deep learning model trained to characterize and propagate earthquake shaking across a seismic network. We show that GRAPES’ internal activations, which we call “seismic vectors”, correspond to the arrival of distinct seismic phases. GRAPES builds upon recent deep learning models applied to earthquake early warning by allowing for continuous ground motion prediction with seismic networks of all sizes. While trained on earthquakes recorded in Japan, we show that GRAPES, without modification, outperforms the ShakeAlert earthquake early warning system on the 2019 M7.1 Ridgecrest, CA earthquake.

Shimane/HiroshimaPrefectures↗
USGS2025

The role of bedrock circulation depth and porosity in mountain streamflow response to prolonged drought

Quantitative understanding is lacking on how the depth of active groundwater circulation in bedrock affects mountain streamflow response to a multi‐year drought. We use an integrated hydrological model to explore the sensitivity of a variety of streamflow metrics to bedrock circulation depth and porosity under a plausible extreme drought scenario lasting up to 5 years. Endmember depth versus hydraulic conductivity relationships and porosity values for fractured crystalline rock are simulated. With drought, a deeper circulation system with higher drainable porosity more effectively buffers minimum flow and significantly limits perennial stream loss in comparison to a shallow circulation system. Streamflow buffering is accomplished through extensive groundwater storage loss. However, deeper circulation systems experience prolonged recovery from drought in comparison to storage‐limited shallow systems. Research highlights the importance of characterizing the deeper bedrock hydrogeology in mountainous watersheds to better understand and predict drought impacts on stream ecosystem health and water resource sustainability.

Colorado↗
USGS2025

Anomalous shear stress variation in wet granular medium: Implications for landslide lateral faults

Landslide assessments typically focus on the mechanical properties of the basal shear zone, but lateral faults are frequently overlooked, possibly due to their lower normal stresses and variably saturated conditions. Using double-cylinder shear experiments on wet granular systems as analogs for landslide lateral faults, we observe anomalous shear stress variations with fluid volume fractions, defying an expected unimodal relationship associated with capillary cohesion. At low fluid volume fractions, shear strength weakens as the wet grain assembly experiences reduced lateral pressure and increased boundary slip. This boundary slip subsequently vanishes, with an abrupt strengthening due to the dilation of the grain assembly against fluid surface tension as saturation approaches. Strike-slip motion and confinement in this system explain the strength anomaly, highlighting a critical role of lateral faults in landslide stability, particularly in cases where dynamics cannot be adequately explained by monitored pore-water pressure or basal friction.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2026

Decadal shifts in groundwater age detected by environmental tracers across California, USA

Groundwater age offers important insight into recharge, storage, and contamination risk. Although models predict age changes can be driven by pumping and climate variability, direct observational evidence remains limited. Here, we analyzed paired environmental tracer suites (tritium, carbon-14, and tritiogenic helium-3) collected a decade apart from 268 wells across California to assess the prevalence of groundwater age transience. Travel-time distribution models and statistical tests indicated age transience at 29% of sites, occurring most often in agricultural regions, such as the San Joaquin Valley and Southern Coast Ranges, where large carbon-14 changes coincided with substantial nitrate and chloride shifts. Sites with tritiogenic helium-3 data showed more frequent age transience, underscoring the value of multi-tracer data sets. These results provide the first regional evidence of widespread groundwater age change and a method for detecting changing water balances with implications for groundwater sustainability and water quality.

California↗
USGS2025

Surface-wave relocation and characterization of the October 2023 tsunamigenic seismic unrest near Sofugan volcano, Izu Islands, Japan

A moderate-magnitude earthquake swarm occurred in the remote Izu Islands region of Japan between October 1 and 8, 2023. The swarm included 151 shallow earthquakes cataloged by the U.S. Geological Survey, which notably included a roughly 2.5-hr episode of 15 successive magnitude (M) < 5.5 earthquakes. Origin times were coincident with regionally recorded tsunami waves, but tsunamigenesis for moderate-magnitude earthquakes is uncommon, indicating that volcanic activity generated the ocean displacements. Leveraging a surface-wave relative relocation approach, we estimate precise epicentroid locations for the remote swarm. Final epicentroids and caldera analogs indicate a three-stage model to explain swarm activity: (a) caldera pressurization due to magma intrusion, (b) depressurization via dike propagation away from the caldera, and (c) eruption corresponding with caldera reactivation either by collapse or additional intrusion.

Sofugan volcano, Izu Islands↗
USGS2026

Asynchronous landslide seasonality across the United States

Mid-range landslide outlooks can facilitate weather-related landslide preparedness and disaster response planning, but seasonal landslide activity remains poorly quantified at continental scales. Leveraging >55,000 reported landslides from across the United States (U.S.), we used circular statistics to quantify landslide seasonality in 67 National Weather Service County Warning Areas (CWAs). We found regional differences in landslide season timing and duration, with transitions between domains variably corresponding to climate class or river basin. We assessed differences in seasonality by movement type for slides, flows, and falls, detecting apparent, but uncertain, differences between slide and fall seasonalities in 27 of 35 (77%) of CWAs with both types reported. In the Pacific Northwest, where long records exist, we found a credible shift toward a later mean landslide season in western Washington from 1990 to 2020, but no trend in western Oregon. Our results can provide emergency planners a resource to assess seasonal landslide probability nationwide.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2026

Ice sheet dynamics drive pronounced changes in the subsurface freshwater-saltwater interface

Saltwater is migrating into freshwater aquifers globally with water quality and biogeochemical implications, yet saltwater intrusion in glaciated regions is sparsely investigated. Field observations suggest that groundwater head in glaciated systems is influenced by ice sheet forcings and provides evidence that seawater infiltrated into offshore aquifers during past deglaciation events. To understand links between ice sheet dynamics, groundwater head, and saltwater intrusion, we use numerical models to explore the effects of deglaciation on nearshore head and salinity distributions. We find that ice sheet thinning diminishes groundwater head, and the resulting shift in subsurface pressure gradients drives rapid landward movement of the subsurface freshwater-saltwater interface up to 4.0 km or 1.3 m per m ice sheet loss. Results highlight an overlooked saltwater intrusion mechanism that aligns with field observations and affects glaciated coastlines undergoing ice sheet retreat, underscoring the need to consider this mechanism in studies of contemporary coastal water quality.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2025

Flow heterogeneity controls dissolution dynamics in topologically complex rocks

Rock dissolution is a common subsurface geochemical reaction affecting pore space properties, crucial for reservoir stimulation, carbon storage, and geothermal energy. Predictive models for dissolution remain limited due to incomplete understanding of the mechanisms involved. We examine the influence of flow, transport, and reaction regimes on mineral dissolution using 29 time-resolved data from 3D rocks. We find that initial pore structure significantly influences the dissolution pattern, with reaction rates up to two orders of magnitude lower than batch conditions, given solute and fluid-solid boundary constraints. Flow unevenness determines the location and rate of dissolution. We propose two models describing expected dissolution patterns and effective reaction rates based on dimensionless metrics for flow, transport, and reaction. Finally, we analyze feedback between evolving flow and pore structure to understand conditions that regulate/reinforce dissolution hotspots. Our findings underscore the major impact of flow arrangement on reaction-front propagation and provide a foundation for controlling dissolution hotspots.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2025

Rupture process of the Mw7.0 December 5, 2024 Offshore Cape Mendocino earthquake

The Mw7.0 December 5, 2024 Offshore Cape Mendocino earthquake ruptured a km long portion of the east-west trending Mendocino fault zone (MFZ). In order to clarify the rupture process, we assemble three-component seismograms from regional seismic stations, horizontal coseismic displacement vectors derived from Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) time series, and a Sentinel-1 ascending interferogram. These data are interpreted with a model of slip distributed on two vertical fault planes representative of the eastern MFZ and spanning the ~70 km length of the aftershock zone. Assuming right-lateral strike slip, we find that the rupture initiates in the oceanic mantle at 20-30 km depth and proceeds unilaterally updip and toward the east. Early aftershocks locate adjacent to the peak slip areas, tracking the coseismic rupture propagation from oceanic mantle to shallower depth and implying a significant role of static stress transfer in driving aftershocks in an ocean plate environment.

California↗
USGS2025

Persistent deep long-period seismicity near the Lassen Volcanic Center

Deep long-period (DLP) earthquakes have been observed at many volcanic settings around the world and linked to the magmatic processes that drive volcanic unrest. At the Lassen Volcanic Center (LVC) of the Cascade arc, limited detection of DLP activity hinders classification of anomalous seismic behavior and its relationship to the LVC magmatic system. This study uses a template matching approach with seismic data from temporary nodal and permanent stations to detect and locate DLP earthquakes near the LVC between 2017 and 2024. Within the DLP catalog of 611 events, a transition occurs from scattered (2017–2020) to oscillatory (2021–2024) occurrence rates. During the oscillatory period, regional earthquakes with large amplitude velocity waveforms observed near the LVC are associated with abrupt changes in DLP occurrence rates. Continued monitoring of DLP activity has the potential to better define the processes that drive volcanic unrest at the LVC in the future.

California↗
USGS2025

A northeast-dipping zone of low frequency earthquakes at the southern edge of Cascadia subduction

Tectonic tremor monitoring occasionally detects events in an anomalous zone in southern Cascadia, 50–100 km west of the main tremor band, near the expected southern edge of the subducting Gorda slab at the Mendocino triple junction. To investigate the geometry and temporal behavior of this tremor, we examine its constituent low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs) by developing 27 stacked LFE waveform templates that we use to detect events from 2018 to 2024. We then relocate LFE sources together with regional seismicity. We find that LFE hypocenters form a northeast-dipping alignment at 22–29 km depth, extending eastward from a zone of micro-earthquakes, ∼15 km south of the southern edge of Gorda slab seismicity. These LFE families exhibit small bursts of activity every few days. Considering the strong world-wide association of tremor and LFEs with high slip-rate, plate-bounding faults, we hypothesize these LFEs may demark the southern edge of Cascadia subduction.

California↗
USGS2026

Dynamic coupling between faulting, rifting and magmatism during 2021-2025 unrest on Reykjanes Peninsula, Iceland

Interactions among faulting, earthquakes, and eruptions are fundamental to plate tectonics and hazard forecasting yet rarely observed along mid-ocean ridges. On Iceland's Reykjanes Peninsula, seismotectonic–volcanic unrest resumed after nearly 800-year hiatus, providing an opportunity to observe these interactions during 2021–2025 activity. By integrating high-resolution seismicity, focal mechanisms, satellite geodesy, surface deformation, and eruption data, we document ∼4 m of total extension accommodated through 14 rifting episodes. The largest, in 2023, involved graben reactivation and diking, with seismic swarms and earthquake faulting that matched the surface ruptures, where strike-slip faulting preceded normal-faulting earthquakes and extension. The accrued extension was released by extension fractures triggered by magma accumulation. Long-term observations show no correlation between erupted magma volume, seismicity, and crustal extension. This highlights dynamic relation between rifting, faulting, and magmatism in transtensional settings and their implications for hazard assessment.

Reykjanes Peninsula↗
USGS2025

Improved prediction of postfire debris flows through rainfall anomaly maps

Predicting where runoff-generated debris flows might occur during rainfall on steep, recently burned terrain is challenging. Studies of mass-movement processes in unburned areas indicate that event locations are well-predicted by rainfall anomaly, R* , in which peak observed rainfall is normalized by local rainfall climatology. Here, we use remote and field methods to map debris flows triggered within the 2020 Dolan Fire burn area in coastal California, demonstrate that a short-duration R* metric predicts debris-flow occurrence more effectively than absolute peak intensity or longer-duration rainfall metrics, and show that incorporating an R* criterion into an existing debris-flow likelihood model can reduce false positive predictions and improve accuracy. We test R * at three other climatically distinct fires in California, demonstrating its utility for mapping likely debris-flow locations in different climates. We also consider how R* can benefit postfire debris-flow prediction given recent increases in climatological variability within individual burn perimeters.

Callifornia↗
USGS2025

Strong shaking from past Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquakes encoded in coastal landforms

Strong earthquakes along subduction zones are often devastating events, but sparse records along some tectonic margins limit our understanding of seismic hazards. Constraining shaking intensities is critical, especially in subduction zones with infrequent but large-magnitude earthquakes like the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ), where the lack of recorded ground motions has led to uncertainty in the severity and potential impacts of future earthquakes. Here we fill this observational gap with a novel inventory of quantitative estimates of past shaking intensities from geotechnical modeling of coastal landforms. One hundred fifty-four deep-seated landslides and 65 fragile geologic features constrain minimum and maximum peak ground accelerations, respectively. These estimates are broadly consistent with model predictions of M9 ruptures, suggesting strong shaking of 0.4–0.8 g during past CSZ earthquakes. Local discrepancies between our geologic shaking constraints and earthquake simulations may inform past rupture behavior, leading to better predictions of shaking intensity for future earthquakes.

California, Oregon, Washington↗