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A model for the evaluation of environmental impact indicators for a sustainable maritime transportation systems

Maritime shipping is considered the most efficient, low-cost means for transporting large quantities of freight over significant distances. However, this process also causes negative environmental and societal impacts. Therefore, environmental sustainability is a pressing issue for maritime shipping management, given the interest in addressing important issues that affect the safety, security, and air and water quality as part of the efficient movement of freight throughout the coasts and waterways and associated port facilities worldwide. In-depth studies of maritime transportation systems (MTS) can be used to identify key environmental impact indicators within the transportation system. This paper develops a tool for decision making in complex environments; this tool will quantify and rank preferred environmental impact indicators within a MTS. Such a model will help decision-makers to achieve the goals of improved environmental sustainability. The model will also provide environmental policy-makers in the shipping industry with an analytical tool that can evaluate tradeoffs within the system and identify possible alternatives to mitigate detrimental effects on the environment.

Frontiers of Engineering Management

Approaching the upper boundary of driver-response relationships: Identifying factors using a novel framework integrating quantile regression with interpretable machine learning

The identification of factors that may be forcing ecological observations to approach the upper boundary provides insight into potential mechanisms affecting driver-response relationships, and can help inform ecosystem management, but has rarely been explored. In this study, we propose a novel framework integrating quantile regression with interpretable machine learning. In the first stage of the framework, we estimate the upper boundary of a driver-response relationship using quantile regression. Next, we calculate “potentials” of the response variable depending on the driver, which are defined as vertical distances from the estimated upper boundary of the relationship to observations in the driver-response variable scatter plot. Finally, we identify key factors impacting the potential using a machine learning model. We illustrate the necessary steps to implement the framework using the total phosphorus (TP)-Chlorophyll a (CHL) relationship in lakes across the continental US. We found that the nitrogen to phosphorus ratio (N:P), annual average precipitation, total nitrogen (TN), and summer average air temperature were key factors impacting the potential of CHL depending on TP. We further revealed important implications of our findings for lake eutrophication management. The important role of N:P and TN on the potential highlights the co-limitation of phosphorus and nitrogen and indicates the need for dual nutrient criteria. Future wetter and/or warmer climate scenarios can decrease the potential which may reduce the efficacy of lake eutrophication management. The novel framework advances the application of quantile regression to identify factors driving observations to approach the upper boundary of driver-response relationships.

Frontiers of Environmental Science & Engineering

Impacts of a non-indigenous ecosystem engineer, the American beaver (Castor canadensis), in a biodiversity hotspot

Non-native species having high per capita impacts in invaded communities are those that modulate resource availability and alter disturbance regimes in ways that are biologically incompatible with the native biota. In areas where it has been introduced by humans, American beaver ( Castor canadensis ) is an iconic example of such species due to its capacity to alter trophic dynamics of entire ecosystems and create new invasional pathways for other non-native species. The species is problematic in several watersheds within the Southern California-Northern Baja California Coast Ecoregion, a recognized hotspot of biodiversity, due to its ability to modify habitat in ways that favor invasive predators and competitors over the region's native species and habitat. Beaver was deliberately introduced across California in the mid-1900s and generally accepted as non-native to the region up to the early 2000s; however, articles promoting the idea that beaver may be a natural resident have gained traction in recent years, due in large part to the species' charismatic nature rather than by presentation of sound evidence. Here, we discuss the problems associated with beaver disturbance and its effects on conserving the region's native fauna and flora. We refute arguments underlying the claim that beaver is native to the region, and review paleontological, zooarchaeological, and historical survey data from renowned field biologists and naturalists over the past ~160 years to show that no evidence exists that beaver arrived by any means other than deliberate human introduction. Managing this ecosystem engineer has potential to reduce the richness and abundance of other non-native species because the novel, engineered habitat now supporting these species would diminish in beaver-occupied watersheds. At the same time, hydrologic functionality would shift toward more natural, ephemeral conditions that favor the regions' native species while suppressing the dominance of the most insidious invaders.

California

Integrating ecosystem resilience and resistance into decision support tools for multi-scale population management of a sagebrush indicator species

Imperiled sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) ecosystems of western North America are experiencing unprecedented conservation planning efforts. Advances in decision-support tools operationalize concepts of ecosystem resilience by quantitatively linking spatially explicit variation in soil and plant processes to outcomes of biotic and abiotic disturbances. However, failure to consider higher trophic-level fauna of conservation concern in these tools can hinder efforts to operationalize resilience owing to spatiotemporal lags between slower reorganization of plant and soil processes following disturbance, and faster behavioral and demographic responses of fauna to disturbance. Here, we provide multi-scale examples of decision-support tools for management and restoration actions that evaluate general resilience mapped to variation in soil moisture and temperature regimes through new lenses of habitat selection and population performance responses for an at-risk obligate species to sagebrush ecosystems, the greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus). We then briefly describe general pathways going forward for more explicit integration of sage-grouse fitness with factors influencing variation in sagebrush resilience to disturbance and resistance to invasive species (e.g., annual grasses). The intended product of these efforts is a more targeted operational definition of resilience for managers by using quantifiable metrics that help limit chances of spatiotemporal mismatches among restoration responses owing to differences in engineering resilience between sagebrush ecosystem processes and sage-grouse population dynamics. Moreover, spatial resilience can be promoted though explicit consideration of sage-grouse and sagebrush predicted responses to active and passive management treatments across space and time. We describe tools that include multi-scale geospatial overlays and simulation analyses of post-disturbance land cover recovery aimed at prioritizing primary threats to sagebrush ecosystems in the Great Basin in the western portion of sage-grouse range (i.e., grass-fire cycles and conifer expansion), but underlying concepts have broader application to a range of ecosystems.

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution

Using open-science workflow tools to produce SCEC CyberShake physics-based probabilistic seismic hazard models

The Statewide (formerly Southern) California Earthquake Center (SCEC) conducts multidisciplinary earthquake system science research that aims to develop predictive models of earthquake processes, and to produce accurate seismic hazard information that can improve societal preparedness and resiliency to earthquake hazards. As part of this program, SCEC has developed the CyberShake platform, which calculates physics-based probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) models for regions with high-quality seismic velocity and fault models. The CyberShake platform implements a sophisticated computational workflow that includes over 15 individual codes written by 6 developers. These codes are heterogeneous, ranging from short-running high-throughput serial CPU codes to large, long-running, parallel GPU codes. Additionally, CyberShake simulation campaigns are computationally extensive, typically producing tens of terabytes of meaningful scientific data and metadata over several months of around-the-clock execution on leadership-class supercomputers. To meet the needs of the CyberShake platform, we have developed an extreme-scale workflow stack, including the Pegasus Workflow Management System, HTCondor, Globus, and custom tools. We present this workflow software stack and identify how the CyberShake platform and supporting tools enable us to meet a variety of challenges that come with large-scale simulations, such as automated remote job submission, data management, and verification and validation. This platform enabled us to perform our most recent simulation campaign, CyberShake Study 22.12, from December 2022 to April 2023. During this time, our workflow tools executed approximately 32,000 jobs, and used up to 73% of the Summit system at Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility. Our workflow tools managed about 2.5 PB of total temporary and output data, and automatically staged 19 million output files totaling 74 TB back to archival storage on the University of Southern California's Center for Advanced Research Computing systems, including file-based relational data and large binary files to efficiently store millions of simulated seismograms. CyberShake extreme-scale workflows have generated simulation-based probabilistic seismic hazard models that are being used by seismological, engineering, and governmental communities.

Frontiers Earth Science Journal

Assessing the effect of coral reef restoration location on coastal flood hazard along the San Juan Coastline, Puerto Rico

Coastal resilience has become a pressing global issue due to the growing vulnerability of coastlines to the effects of climate change. Nature-based solutions have emerged as a promising approach to coastal protection to not only enhance coastal resilience, but also restore critical ecosystems. Coral reef restoration has the potential to provide ecosystem services benefits; however, there are still key uncertainties in linking restoration design to reductions in coastal flood hazard under current and future climate conditions. In this study, we applied one-dimensional and two-dimensional numerical coastal engineering models, calibrated and validated using field data, to evaluate the effectiveness of coral restoration scenarios on coastal waves, water levels, and flooding along the coast of San Juan, Puerto Rico, U.S.A. Model results indicate a small reduction in maximum water levels under the proposed restoration scenarios. This underscores the importance of these endeavors, not only for ecological preservation but also for preventing further reef deterioration. Such preservation is essential for mitigating the increased coastal risks anticipated in the future. Results from this study provide information to guide policymakers and coastal managers in making informed decisions on viable restoration project design options. By systematically evaluating how restoration location impacts coastal flood hazards, communities can develop and implement proactive strategies to mitigate flood-related risk. In addition, by restoring coral reefs, communities can contribute to environmental preservation while ensuring sustainable development and protection of coastal environments.

Puerto Rico, San Juan coastline

The next frontier: Making research more reproducible

Science and engineering rest on the concept of reproducibility. An important question for any study is: are the results reproducible? Can the results be recreated independently by other researchers or professionals? Research results need to be independently reproduced and validated before they are accepted as fact or theory. Across numerous fields like psychology, computer systems, and water resources there are problems to reproduce research results (Aarts et al. 2015; Collberg et al. 2014; Hutton et al. 2016; Stagge et al. 2019; Stodden et al. 2018). This editorial examines the challenges to reproduce research results and suggests community practices to overcome these challenges. Coordination is needed among the authors, journals, funders and institutions that produce, publish, and report research. Making research more reproducible will allow researchers, professionals, and students to more quickly understand and apply research in follow-on efforts and advance the field.

Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management

Fish conservation in streams of the agrarian Mississippi Alluvial Valley: Conceptual model, management actions, and field verification

The effects of agriculture and flood control practices accrued over more than a century have impaired aquatic habitats and their fish communities in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley, the historic floodplain of the Lower Mississippi River prior to leveeing. As a first step to conservation planning and adaptive management, we developed and tested a conceptual model of how changes to this floodplain have affected stream environments and fish assemblages. The model is deliberately simple in structure because it needs to be understood by stakeholders ranging from engineers to farmers who must remain engaged to ensure effective conservation. Testing involved multivariate correlative analyses that included descriptors of land setting, water quality, and fish assemblages representing 376 stream samples taken over two decades and ranging in Strahler stream order from 1 to 8. The conceptual model was adequately corroborated by empirical data, but with unexplained variability that is not uncommon in field surveys where gear biases, temporal biases, and scale biases prevent accurate characterizations. Our conceptual model distinguishes three types of conservation actions relevant to large agricultural floodplains: reforestation of large parcels and riparian zone conservation, in-channel interventions and connectivity preservation, and flow augmentation. Complete restoration of the floodplain may not be an acceptable option to the agriculture community. However, in most cases the application of even the most basic measures can support the return of sensitive aquatic species. We suggest that together these types of conservation actions can bring improved water properties to impacted reaches, higher reach biodiversity, more intolerant species, and more rheophilic fishes.

Mississippi Alluvial Valle

Oyster reefs in northern Gulf of Mexico estuaries harbor diverse fish and decapod crustacean assemblages: A meta-synthesis

Oyster reefs provide habitat for numerous fish and decapod crustacean species that mediate ecosystem functioning and support vibrant fisheries. Recent focus on the restoration of eastern oyster ( Crassostrea virginica) reefs stems from this role as a critical ecosystem engineer. Within the shallow estuaries of the northern Gulf of Mexico (nGoM), the eastern oyster is the dominant reef building organism. This study synthesizes data on fish and decapod crustacean occupancy of oyster reefs across nGoM with the goal of providing management and restoration benchmarks, something that is currently lacking for the region. Relevant data from 23 studies were identified, representing data from all five U.S. nGoM states over the last 28 years. Cumulatively, these studies documented over 120,000 individuals from 115 fish and 41 decapod crustacean species. Densities as high as 2,800 ind m −2 were reported, with individual reef assemblages composed of as many as 52 species. Small, cryptic organisms that occupy interstitial spaces within the reefs, and sampled using trays, were found at an average density of 647 and 20 ind m −2 for decapod crustaceans and fishes, respectively. Both groups of organisms were comprised, on average, of 8 species. Larger-bodied fishes captured adjacent to the reef using gill nets were found at an average density of 6 ind m −2 , which came from 23 species. Decapod crustaceans sampled with gill nets had a much lower average density, <1 ind m −2 , and only contained 2 species. On average, seines captured the greatest number of fish species ( n = 33), which were made up of both facultative residents and transients. These data provide general gear-specific benchmarks, based on values currently found in the region, to assist managers in assessing nekton occupancy of oyster reefs, and assessing trends or changes in status of oyster reef associated nekton support. More explicit reef descriptions (e.g., rugosity, height, area, adjacent habitat) would allow for more precise benchmarks as these factors are important in determining nekton assemblages, and sampling efficiency.

Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas