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At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Modeling geomagnetic induction in submarine cables

Submarine cables have become a vital component of modern infrastructure, but past submarine cable natural hazard studies have mostly focused on potential cable damage from landslides and tsunamis. A handful of studies examine the possibility of space weather effects in submarine cables. The main purpose of this study is to develop a computational model, using Python , of geomagnetic induction on submarine cables. The model is used to estimate the induced voltage in the submarine cables in response to geomagnetic disturbances. It also utilizes newly acquired knowledge from magnetotelluric studies and associated investigations of geomagnetically induced currents in power systems. We describe the Python-based software, its working principle, inputs/outputs based on synthetic geomagnetic field data, and compare its operational capabilities against analytical solutions. We present the results for different model inputs, and find: 1) the seawater layer acts as a shield in the induction process: the greater the ocean depth, the smaller the seafloor geoelectric field; and 2) the model is sensitive to the Ocean-Earth layered conductivity structure.

Frontiers in Physics

A geomorphic-process-based cellular automata model of colluvial wedge morphology and stratigraphy

The development of colluvial wedges at the base of fault scarps following normal-faulting earthquakes serves as a sedimentary record of paleoearthquakes and is thus crucial in assessing seismic hazard. Although there is a large body of observations of colluvial wedge development, connecting this knowledge to the physics of sediment transport can open new frontiers in our understanding. To explore theoretical colluvial wedge evolution, we develop a cellular automata model driven by the production and disturbance (e.g., bioturbative reworking) of mobile regolith and fault-scarp collapse. We consider both 90 and 60 ∘ dipping faults and allow the colluvial wedges to develop over 2000 model years. By tracking sediment transport time, velocity, and provenance, we classify cells into analogs for the debris and wash sedimentary facies commonly described in paleoseismic studies. High values of mobile regolith production and disturbance rates produce relatively larger and more wash-facies-dominated wedges, whereas lower values produced relatively smaller, debris-facies-dominated wedges. Higher lateral collapse rates lead to more debris facies relative to wash facies. Many of the modeled colluvial wedges fully developed within 2000 model years after the earthquake, with many being much faster when process rates are high. Finally, for scenarios with the same amount of vertical displacement, differently sized colluvial wedges developed depending on the rates of geomorphic processes and fault dip. A change in these variables, say by environmental change such as precipitation rates, could theoretically result in different colluvial wedge facies assemblages for the same characteristic earthquake rupture scenario. Finally, the stochastic nature of collapse events, when coupled with high disturbance, illustrates that multiple phases of colluvial deposition are theoretically possible for a single earthquake event.

Earth Surface Dynamics

Machine learning for understanding inland water quantity, quality, and ecology

This chapter provides an overview of machine learning models and their applications to the science of inland waters. Such models serve a wide range of purposes for science and management: predicting water quality, quantity, or ecological dynamics across space, time, or hypothetical scenarios; vetting and distilling raw data for further modeling or analysis; generating and exploring hypotheses; estimating physically or biologically meaningful parameters for use in further modeling; and revealing patterns in complex, multidimensional data or model outputs. An important research frontier is the injection of limnological knowledge into machine-learning models, which has shown great promise for increasing such models’ accuracy, trustworthiness, and interpretability. Here we describe a few of the most powerful machine learning tools, describe best practices for employing these tools and injecting knowledge guidance, and give examples of their applications to advance understanding of inland waters.

Book chapter

The river corridor’s evolving connectivity of lotic and lentic waters

River corridors supply a substantial proportion of the fresh water for societal and ecological needs. Individual functions of flowing (lotic) streams and rivers and ponded (lentic) waterbodies such as lakes and reservoirs are well-studied, but their collective functions are not as well understood. Here we bring together nationally consistent river corridor datasets to characterize the contributions of lotic and lentic features and to estimate changes over the past centuries. High-resolution datasets describing waterbodies across 10 million kilometers of the conterminous U.S. (CONUS) river network were classified by waterbody type and origin (historic vs. human-made or intensively managed), surface areal coverage, and degree of connectivity as estimated by a change in water residence timescale in river corridors. Four centuries of human disturbance drove large swings in river corridor makeup, with a transition toward more lotic systems caused by beaver extirpation and abandonment of waterwheel mill ponds by end of the nineteenth century. The twentieth century saw a vast expansion (49%) in river corridor areal coverage resulting from construction and management of small ponds and reservoirs for drinking water, hydropower, irrigation and livestock watering, and stormwater control. Water residence timescale in river corridors doubled or quadrupled over large areas, and more in specific locations, during the twentieth century as a result of the increased coverage of reservoirs and managed small ponds. Although reservoirs and lakes now dominate river corridor surface areas, we found that the growing number of small ponds impacts a greater proportion of network length through their influence on headwater streams where most water and chemical runoff enters the river corridor. We close with an agenda for integrated modeling of the physical, biogeochemical, and ecological drivers of river corridor functions, trajectories of change, and management opportunities.

Conterminous United States

Pulverization provides a mechanism for the nucleation of earthquakes at low stress on strong faults

An earthquake occurs when rock that has been deformed under stress rebounds elastically along a fault plane ( Gilbert, 1884 ; Reid, 1911 ), radiating seismic waves through the surrounding earth. Rupture along the entire fault surface does not spontaneously occur at the same time, however. Rather the rupture starts in one tiny area, the rupture nucleation zone, and spreads sequentially along the fault. Like a row of dominoes, one bit of rebounding fault triggers the next. This triggering is understood to occur because of the large dynamic stresses at the tip of an active seismic rupture. The importance of these crack tip stresses is a central question in earthquake physics. The crack tip stresses are minimally important, for example, in the time predictable earthquake model ( Shimazaki and Nakata, 1980 ), which holds that prior to rupture stresses are comparable to fault strength in many locations on the future rupture plane, with bits of variation. The stress/strength ratio is highest at some point, which is where the earthquake nucleates. This model does not require any special conditions or processes at the nucleation site; the whole fault is essentially ready for rupture at the same time. The fault tip stresses ensure that the rupture occurs as a single rapid earthquake, but the fact that fault tip stresses are high is not particularly relevant since the stress at most points does not need to be raised by much. Under this model it should technically be possible to forecast earthquakes based on the stress-renewaql concept, or estimates of when the fault as a whole will reach the critical stress level, a practice used in official hazard mapping ( Field, 2008 ). This model also indicates that physical precursors may be present and detectable, since stresses are unusually high over a significant area before a large earthquake.

Frontiers in Earth Science

An exploration of the relative influence of physical models for Omori’s law

Omori’s law states that the rate of aftershocks decays as a function of inverse time. There are multiple physical explanations that we reduce into a nonlinear mixed effects relation of three terms: (1) a Rate/State expression that can account for static/dynamic and viscoelastic triggering caused directly by the mainshock, (2) a fluid diffusion triggering term, and (3) a randomized secondary triggering (cascade) term. We fit free physical-model parameters to an observed aftershock sequence through two nonlinear regression methods to find the relative contributions of physics-based models in an observed aftershock sequence. Results from both methods show that Rate/State models overpredict aftershock rates by ∼0–30%. Secondary aftershocks cause a net negative contribution (seismicity rate reduction that corrects overprediction by other terms) ranging between ∼0 and 30%. All regression solutions yield negative secondary triggering contributions without being guided to do so. A physical explanation for this is that aftershock occurrence relieves stress from the crust, ultimately causing the sequence to extinguish itself. Fluid diffusion triggering contributions range from ∼0 to 20%. Diffusion processes are observed to be shorter in time than the full duration of an aftershock sequence and they are also spatially limited, diminishing their influence. Our results apply to an aftershock decay curve from the 2016 Central Apennines earthquake sequence, meaning that our specific results may not be general. Our primary conclusion is that any one physical model cannot alone fit the observed sequence as well as the combination of three we investigated.

Frontiers in Earth Science

The Polar WRF downscaled historical and projected twenty-first century climate for the coast and foothills of Arctic Alaska

Climate change is most pronounced in the northern high latitude region. Yet, climate observations are unable to fully capture regional-scale dynamics due to the sparse weather station coverage, which limits our ability to make reliable climate-based assessments. A set of simulated data products was therefore developed for the North Slope of Alaska through a dynamical downscaling approach. The polar-optimized Weather Research and Forecast (Polar WRF) model was forced by three sources: The ERA-interim reanalysis data (for 1979–2014), the Community Earth System Model 1.0 (CESM1.0) historical simulation (for 1950–2005), and the CESM1.0 projected (for 2006–2100) simulations in two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios. Climatic variables were produced in a 10-km grid spacing and a 3-h interval. The ERA-interim forced WRF (ERA-WRF) proves the value of dynamical downscaling, which yields more realistic topographical-induced precipitation and air temperature, as well as corrects underestimations in observed precipitation. In summary, dry and cold biases to the north of the Brooks Range are presented in ERA-WRF, while CESM forced WRF (CESM-WRF) holds wet and warm biases in its historical period. A linear scaling method allowed for an adjustment of the biases, while keeping the majority of the variability and extreme values of modeled precipitation and air temperature. CESM-WRF under RCP 4.5 scenario projects smaller increase in precipitation and air temperature than observed in the historical CESM-WRF product, while the CESM-WRF under RCP 8.5 scenario shows larger changes. The fine spatial and temporal resolution, long temporal coverage, and multi-scenario projections jointly make the dataset appropriate to address a myriad of physical and biological changes occurring on the North Slope of Alaska.

Alaska

A fossil flora from the Frontier formation of southwestern Wyoming

This paper deals with a small but important fossil flora, now known to be of Colorado age, from the vicinity of Cumberland, Lincoln County, Wyo. It was for many years thought to be of Jurassic age, and only within the last decade has its stratigraphic position been established. Although small in number of species, this flora offers information bearing on the physical and climatic conditions that prevailed during early Upper Cretaceous time in this region, and, moreover, it furnishes a series of stratigraphic marks that may be used in the recognition of this horizon elsewhere.

Wyoming

Flow ecology of invasive suckermouth catfish in urbanized ridge-to-reef systems on O’ahu, Hawai’i

Introduction: The effects of flow regimes on the ability of invasive species to establish and maintain populations in the ridge to reef (R2R) systems common to oceanic islands is not well understood. The hydrology of the relatively short, high-gradient, and flashy R2R streams of oceanic islands may be extremely different from that of the continental watersheds invasive species originate from and thus may exert a stronger influence on their ecology. Our objective was to evaluate the effects of annual variability in flow conditions on the growth and recruitment of invasive armored Suckermouth Catfish Hypostomus c.f. watwata in Hawaiian streams. Methods: Suckermouth Catfish were captured from three streams of the Ala Wai Watershed on O’ahu. We then measured, weighed, and extracted the lapilli from each fish. We used back-calculated lengths at age to estimate the effects of interannual variability in flow on growth and recruitment. Results: Individuals ranged from 0–16 years old and grew rapidly in their first 3 years after which growth slowed substantially. The growth of Suckermouth Catfish was positively influenced by flow conditions indicative of wetter years and more stable flow and negatively influenced by flow conditions indicative of drier years and more variable flows. However, the specific annual flow metrics most strongly influencing growth varied by stream. Similarly, recruitment was positively influenced by higher winter flows with lower daily variability. Discussion: The observed effects of flow on Suckermouth Catfish growth and recruitment suggests that they are not particularly well suited for the flow conditions characteristic to R2R systems and that anthropogenic alterations to the hydrology and physical in-stream habitats may have enabled the species to be more successful on O’ahu than it would have been otherwise.

Hawaii

Acoustic space occupancy: Combining ecoacoustics and lidar to model biodiversity variation and detection bias across heterogeneous landscapes

There is global interest in quantifying changing biodiversity in human-modified landscapes. Ecoacoustics may offer a promising pathway for supporting multi-taxa monitoring, but its scalability has been hampered by the sonic complexity of biodiverse ecosystems and the imperfect detectability of animal-generated sounds. The acoustic signature of a habitat, or soundscape, contains information about multiple taxa and may circumvent species identification, but robust statistical technology for characterizing community-level attributes is lacking. Here, we present the Acoustic Space Occupancy Model, a flexible hierarchical framework designed to account for detection artifacts from acoustic surveys in order to model biologically relevant variation in acoustic space use among community assemblages. We illustrate its utility in a biologically and structurally diverse Amazon frontier forest landscape, a valuable test case for modeling biodiversity variation and acoustic attenuation from vegetation density. We use complementary airborne lidar data to capture aspects of 3D forest structure hypothesized to influence community composition and acoustic signal detection. Our novel analytic framework permitted us to model both the assembly and detectability of soundscapes using lidar-derived estimates of forest structure. Our empirical predictions were consistent with physical models of frequency-dependent attenuation, and we estimated that the probability of observing animal activity in the frequency channel most vulnerable to acoustic attenuation varied by over 60%, depending on vegetation density. There were also large differences in the biotic use of acoustic space predicted for intact and degraded forest habitats, with notable differences in the soundscape channels predominantly occupied by insects . This study advances the utility of ecoacoustics by providing a robust modeling framework for addressing detection bias from remote audio surveys while preserving the rich dimensionality of soundscape data, which may be critical for inferring biological patterns pertinent to multiple taxonomic groups in the tropics. Our methodology paves the way for greater integration of remotely sensed observations with high-throughput biodiversity data to help bring routine, multi-taxa monitoring to scale in dynamic and diverse landscapes.

Mato Grosso

Discovery of an extensive deep-sea fossil serpulid reef associated with a cold seep, Santa Monica Basin, California

Multi-beam mapping of the Santa Monica Basin in the eastern Pacific has revealed the existence of a number of elevated bathymetric features, or mounds, harboring cold seep communities. During 2013-2014, mounds at ~600 m water depth were observed for the first time and sampled by Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute’s ROV Doc Ricketts. Active cold seeps were found, but surprisingly one of these mounds was characterized by massive deposits composed of fossil serpulid worm tubes (Annelida: Serpulidae) exhibiting various states of mineralization by authigenic carbonate. No living serpulids with equivalent tube morphologies were found at the site; hence the mound was termed ‘Fossil Hill’. In the present study, the identity of the fossil serpulids and associated fossil community, the ages of fossils and authigenic carbonates, the formation of the fossil serpulid aggregation, and the geological structure of the mound are explored. Results indicate that the tubes were most likely made by a deep-sea serpulid lineage, with radiocarbon dating suggesting that they have a very recent origin during the Late Pleistocene, specifically to the Last Glacial Maximum ~20,000 years ago. Additional U-Th analyses of authigenic carbonates mostly corroborate the radiocarbon dates, and also indicate that seepage was occurring while the tubes were being formed. We also document similar, older deposits along the approximate trajectory of the San Pedro Basin Fault. We suggest that the serpulid tube facies formed in situ, and that the vast aggregation of these tubes at Fossil Hill is likely due to a combination of optimal physical environmental conditions and chemosynthetic production, which may have been particularly intense as a result of sea-level lowstand during the Last Glacial Maximum.

California

Coral reef restorations can be optimized to reduce coastal flooding hazards

Coral reefs are effective natural coastal flood barriers that protect adjacent communities. Coral degradation compromises the coastal protection value of reefs while also reducing their other ecosystem services, making them a target for restoration. Here we provide a physics-based evaluation of how coral restoration can reduce coastal flooding for various types of reefs. Wave-driven flooding reduction is greatest for broader, shallower restorations on the upper fore reef and between the middle of the reef flat and the shoreline than for deeper locations on the fore reef or at the reef crest. These results indicate that to increase the coastal hazard risk reduction potential of reef restoration, more physically robust species of coral need to be outplanted to shallower, more energetic locations than more fragile, faster-growing species primarily being grown in coral nurseries. The optimization and quantification of coral reef restoration efforts to reduce coastal flooding may open hazard risk reduction funding for conservation purposes.

Frontiers in Marine Science

Assessment of pollution and other impairments of US reservoirs based on expert opinion

A comprehensive understanding of the prevailing pollution and other impairments to reservoirs is necessary at the national level to analyze patterns and causes as well as allocate national resources effectively. Most of these impairments are associated with sedimentation, nutrient contamination, and other pollution factors. The costs involved in conducting on-site surveys at multiple locations are potential obstacles for obtaining empirical data on large-scale spatial impairments. In such cases, inputs from specialists may be required to offset the absence of empirical data for determining the impairment statuses of thousands of geographically dispersed reservoirs. Thus, our aim was to examine whether expert opinion could offer a comprehensive review of the impairment statuses of numerous reservoirs in the United States. We designed and executed an internet-based survey of reservoir specialists to gather their ratings on visually evident elements of reservoir impairment. To evaluate the ratings, we searched for correlations with factors known to have impacts on reservoir impairment. Canonical correlation analyses indicated that nine metrics used by experts to rate impairment levels on an ordinal scale were correlated with metrics descriptive of the physical qualities of reservoirs, land use in catchments, and prevailing local climate. We thus conclude that expert opinions may facilitate assessments of impairment levels over large geographical areas. Lastly, we define the circumstances under which it is permissible to rely on expert opinions and propose criteria that could improve the quality of the data collected.

continental United States

Coincident seismic reflection/refraction studies of the continental lithosphere: A global review.

Nearly 50 coincident seismic reflection/refraction studies to depths of at least the Moho provide an improved understanding of the continental lithosphere. Some conclusions include the following: (1) A transparent upper crust, a common observation on vertical reflection profiles, cannot generally be correlated with velocity gradients or low-velocity zones. Rather, a commonly transparent upper crust may be explained by short-wavelength, steeply dipping features in the brittle upper crust and to a lesser degree by signal contamination from source-generated noise. (2) The reflective lower crust in extensional terranes appears to be characterized by a high average seismic velocity (6.6–7.3 km/s) and to consist of laminated high- and low-velocity layers with typical thicknesses of 100–200 m. (3) Landward dipping reflectors observed in the middle to lower crusts of convergent zones have been identified as paired high- and low-velocity slabs which represent oceanic crust and mantle accreted via underplating to the continental margin. (4) The crust-mantle boundary may differ sufficiently when imaged with vertical incidence and wide-angle data to justify the retention, for the present, of the concept of separate reflection and refraction Mohos. While there is good evidence that these features are coincident within measurement uncertainties in most regions, recently recorded data from the Basin and Range admit the possibility for noncoincidence in that area. (5) Upper mantle reflections which cannot be migrated into the lower crust remain rare, despite isolated unequivocal examples. Thus the upper mantle appears to be relatively homogeneous at seismic reflection wavelengths and to lack the laminations inferred for the lower crust. The wide-angle method will likely provide the most reliable information on the velocity structure and physical state of this portion of the lithosphere for some years to come. (6) There appear to be clear and consistent basic differences between convergent and extensional terranes which have been identified from coincident experiments; these differences may be sufficiently universal to infer the tectonic history of poorly exposed terranes. (7) No truly three-dimensional coincident experiment (i.e., including three-dimensional migration) has been conducted, but some three-dimensional data have been collected using both methods. Measurements of attenuation, Poisson's ratio, and anisotropy within the crust using coincident data sets remain frontiers.

Reviews of Geophysics

Can identifying discrete behavioral groups with individual-based acoustic telemetry advance the understanding of fish distribution patterns?

Identifying patterns of organismal distribution can provide valuable insights for basic and applied marine and coastal ecology because understanding where animals are located is foundational to both research and science-based conservation. Understanding variation in distributional patterns can lead to a better assessment of ecological drivers and an improved ability to predict consequences of natural and altered relationships. Here, our purpose is to explore if quantifying coexisting groups of individual fish predators advances our understanding of field distribution patterns. Toward this end, we quantified locations of 59 acoustically tagged striped bass ( Morone saxatilis) within a 26-stationary unit telemetry receiver array in Plum Island Estuary (PIE), MA, United States. We then used cluster analyses on spatial and temporal-spatial metrics from this dataset to (1) assess if distinct groups of individuals coexisted, (2) quantify group characteristics, and (3) test associations between groups and distribution (e.g., physical site type and region). Based on multiple lines of evidence, we identified four groups of striped bass with different space use patterns that persisted across seasons (summer and fall). Similar-sized striped bass clustered at spatial and temporal scales at which individuals within distinct groups could, and did, physically overlap. In addition, distributional groups were linked to components of physical site type and region suggesting that discrete groups of individuals can interact differently with the environment within the same ecological system. The identification of these distinct groups of individuals creates a baseline from which to explore further ecological implications of grouping behavior for research and conservation in geographically large, temporally dynamic, and spatially heterogeneous marine and coastal environments.

Massachusetts

Alteration of streamflow magnitudes and potential ecological consequences: A multiregional assessment

Human impacts on watershed hydrology are widespread in the US, but the prevalence and severity of stream-flow alteration and its potential ecological consequences have not been quantified on a national scale. We assessed streamflow alteration at 2888 streamflow monitoring sites throughout the conterminous US. The magnitudes of mean annual (1980–2007) minimum and maximum streamflows were found to have been altered in 86% of assessed streams. The occurrence, type, and severity of streamflow alteration differed markedly between arid and wet climates. Biological assessments conducted on a subset of these streams showed that, relative to eight chemical and physical covariates, diminished flow magnitudes were the primary predictors of biological integrity for fish and macroinvertebrate communities. In addition, the likelihood of biological impairment doubled with increasing severity of diminished streamflows. Among streams with diminished flow magnitudes, increasingly common fish and macroinvertebrate taxa possessed traits characteristic of lake or pond habitats, including a preference for fine-grained substrates and slow-moving currents, as well as the ability to temporarily leave the aquatic environment.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment

Disease prevalence and snail predation associated with swell-generated damage on the threatened coral, Acropora palmata (Lamarck)

Disturbances such as tropical storms cause coral mortality and reduce coral cover as a direct result of physical damage. Storms can be one of the most important disturbances in coral reef ecosystems, and it is crucial to understand their long-term impacts on coral populations. The primary objective of this study was to determine trends in disease prevalence and snail predation on damaged and undamaged colonies of the threatened coral species, Acropora palmata, following an episode of heavy ocean swells in the US Virgin Islands (USVI). At three sites on St. Thomas and St. John, colonies of A. palmata were surveyed monthly over 1 year following a series of large swells in March 2008 that fragmented 30–93% of colonies on monitored reefs. Post-disturbance surveys conducted from April 2008 through March 2009 showed that swell-generated damage to A. palmata caused negative indirect effects that compounded the initial direct effects of physical disturbance. During the 12 months after the swell event, white pox disease prevalence was 41% higher for colonies that sustained damage from the swells than for undamaged colonies (df = 207, p = 0.01) with greatest differences in disease prevalence occurring during warm water months. In addition, the corallivorous snail, Coralliophila abbreviata, was 46% more abundant on damaged corals than undamaged corals during the 12 months after the swell event (df = 207, p = 0.006).

Frontiers in Marine Science

Methane oxidation linked to chlorite dismutation

We examined the potential for CH 4 oxidation to be coupled with oxygen derived from the dissimilatory reduction of perchlorate, chlorate, or via chlorite (ClO − 2 ) dismutation. Although dissimilatory reduction of ClO − 4 and ClO − 3 could be inferred from the accumulation of chloride ions either in spent media or in soil slurries prepared from exposed freshwater lake sediment, neither of these oxyanions evoked methane oxidation when added to either anaerobic mixed cultures or soil enriched in methanotrophs. In contrast, ClO − 2 amendment elicited such activity. Methane (0.2 kPa) was completely removed within several days from the headspace of cell suspensions of Dechloromonas agitata CKB incubated with either Methylococcus capsulatus Bath or Methylomicrobium album BG8 in the presence of 5 mM ClO − 2 . We also observed complete removal of 0.2 kPa CH 4 in bottles containing soil enriched in methanotrophs when co-incubated with D. agitata CKB and 10 mM ClO − 2 . However, to be effective these experiments required physical separation of soil from D. agitata CKB to allow for the partitioning of O 2 liberated from chlorite dismutation into the shared headspace. Although a link between ClO − 2 and CH 4 consumption was established in soils and cultures, no upstream connection with either ClO − 4 or ClO − 3 was discerned. This result suggests that the release of O 2 during enzymatic perchlorate reduction was negligible, and that the oxygen produced was unavailable to the aerobic methanotrophs.

Frontiers in Microbiology