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At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2025

Exploring the news media and scientific conversations around water quality in a water-rich basin of the United States

Community concerns about water availability vary depending on local economic, regulatory, environmental, and ecological considerations. In water-rich basins, water quality is often the focus of community concerns. As such, understanding community priorities in the context of water quality is crucial for informing scientists working in water-rich basins. In this work, we compiled over 6,500 local news articles (public discourse) and 190 scientific abstracts (scientific discourse) related to water-quality issues in the water-rich Illinois River Basin (ILRB) published between 2018 and 2022. We applied a Structural Topic Model (STM) to identify key water-quality topics within both datasets and explore the variability of newspaper topics geographically across the basin. Prevalent topics in both the public (local news articles) and scientific (abstracts) discourses were agriculture, drinking water quality, PFAS (per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances), and river ecosystem/fish. Topics exclusive to public discourse included water infrastructure, community development, and public water supply, while the scientific discourse focused more heavily on a wider range of agricultural issues. Furthermore, the public discourse varied geographically across the basin. Some topics are correlated with land use or urban/rural divides within the basin, and the frequency of many topics clearly varied across state (political) boundaries. Understanding and quantifying public and scientific discourses related to water-quality are important for scientists and water managers working in the basin to improve communication of critical science to the public.

Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin↗
USGS2022

Value of information: Exploring behavioral and social factors

There is growing interest within and beyond the economics community in assessing the value of information (VOI) used in decision making. VOI assessments often do not consider the complex behavioral and social factors that affect the perception, valuation, and use of information by individuals and groups. Additionally, VOI assessments frequently do not examine the full suite of interactions and outcomes affecting different groups or individuals. The behavioral and social factors that we mention are often (but not always) innately-derived, less-than-conscious influences that reflect human and societal adaptations to the past. We first discuss these concepts in the context of the recognition and use of information for decision making. We then find fifteen different aspects of value and information pertinent to VOI assessments. We examine methodologies and issues related to current VOI estimation practices in economics. Building on this examination, we explore the perceptions, social factors, and behavioral factors affecting information sharing, prioritization, valuation, and discounting. Information and valuation issues are then considered in the context of information production, information trading and controls, and information communication pathologies. Lastly, we describe issues relating to information useability and actionability. Our examples mention the value and use of geospatial information, and more generally concern societal issues relating to the management of natural resources, environments, and natural and anthropogenic hazards. Our paper aims to be instrumentally relevant to anyone interested in the use and value of science.

Frontiers in Environmental Science↗
USGS2023

The benefits of big-team science for conservation: Lessons learned from trinational monarch butterfly collaborations

Many pressing conservation issues are complex problems caused by multiple social and environmental drivers; their resolution is aided by interdisciplinary teams of scientists, decision makers, and stakeholders working together. In these situations, how do we generate science to effectively guide conservation (resource management and policy) decisions? This paper describes elements of successful big-team science in conservation, as well as shortcomings and lessons learned, based on our work with the monarch butterfly ( Danaus plexippus ) in North America. We summarize literature on effective science teams, extracting information about elements of success, effective implementation approaches, and barriers or pitfalls. We then describe recent and ongoing conservation science for the monarch butterfly in North America. We focus primarily on the activities of the Monarch Conservation Science Partnership–an international collaboration of interdisciplinary scientists, policy experts and natural resource managers spanning government, non-governmental and academic institutions—which developed science to inform imperilment status, recovery options, and monitoring strategies. We couch these science efforts in the adaptative management framework of Strategic Habitat Conservation, the business model for conservation employed by the US Fish and Wildlife Service to inform decision-making needs identified by stakeholders from Canada, the United States, and Mexico. We conclude with elements critical to effective big-team conservation science, discuss why science teams focused on applied conservation problems are unique relative to science teams focusing on traditional or theoretical research, and list benefits of big team science in conservation.

Frontiers in Environmental Science↗
USGS2022

Landsat data ecosystem case study: Actor perceptions of the use and value of landsat

It is well-known that Earth observation (EO) data plays a critical role in scientific understanding about the global environment. There is also growing support for the use of EO data to provide context-specific insights, with significant implications for their use in decision support systems. Technological development over recent years, including cloud computing infrastructure, machine learning techniques, and rapid expansion of the velocity, volume, and variety of space-borne data sources, offer huge potential to provide solutions to the myriad environmental problems facing society and the planet. The USGS/NASA Landsat Program, the longest continuously gathered source of land surface data, has played a central role in our understanding of environmental change, particularly for its contribution of longitudinal products that offer greater context for present research and decision support activities. The challenge facing the Landsat and EO data community, however, now lies in moving beyond context-specific knowledge generation to translating such knowledge into tangible value for society. Drawing from an open data ecosystem framework and qualitative social science methods, we map the Landsat data ecosystem (LDE) and the relationships linking multiple actors responsible for processing, indexing, analyzing, synthesizing, and translating raw Landsat data into information that is useful, useable, and used by end users in particular social-environmental contexts. Both the role of Big Data and associated technologies are discussed as they relate to the ultimate use of Landsat-derived information products to guide decision-making, and key data ecosystem characteristics that shape the likelihood of these products’ use are highlighted.

Frontiers in Environmental Science↗
USGS2021

Translational science education through citizen science

Guided by the six elements of Translational Ecology (TE; i.e., decision-framing, collaboration, engagement, commitment, process, and communication), we showcase the first explicit example of a Translational Science Education (TSE) effort in the coastal redwood ecosystem of Humboldt County, CA. Using iNaturalist, a flexible and free citizen science/crowdsourcing app, we worked with students from grade school through college, and their teachers and community, to generate species lists for comparison among 19 school and non-profit locations spanning a range of urbanization. Importantly, this TSE effort resulted in both learning and data generation, highlighting the ability of a TSE framework to connect and benefit both students and researchers. Our data showed that, regardless of the age of the observers, holding organized BioBlitzes added substantially more species to local biodiversity lists than would have been generated without them. In support of current ecological theory, these data showed an urbanization gradient among sites, with rural sites containing fewer non-native species than urban ones. On the education side, qualitative assessments revealed students and educators remained engaged throughout the project. Future projects would also benefit by establishing quantifiable metrics for assessing student learning from project conception. Throughout the project, the fundamentals of TE were followed with repeated interactions and shared objectives developed over time within trusted community relationships. Such positive human interactions can lead new naturalists to think of themselves as champions of their local biodiversity (i.e., as land stewards). We anticipate that such newly empowered and locally expert naturalists will remain committed to land stewardship in perpetuity and that other scientists and educators are inspired to conduct similar work.

California↗
USGS2026

Restoring dryland water cycles for precipitation feedback and climate stability; a review

Drylands across the globe are experiencing intensifying water scarcity, land degradation, and hydroclimatic extremes. This review integrates evidence from multidecadal field studies, hydrologic monitoring, geomorphic and ecological assessments, remote sensing, and land–atmosphere science to evaluate how restoration influences key components of the terrestrial water cycle. Low-tech natural infrastructure in dryland streams (NIDS)—including check dams, leaky weirs, one-rock dams, and gabions—has emerged as a promising but under-synthesized nature-based solution for restoring hydrologic function in these environments. We describe the mechanisms through which these interventions modify runoff detention, infiltration, sediment and alluvial storage, shallow-groundwater recharge, vegetation recovery, and surface-energy partitioning, and we summarize outcomes across diverse dryland settings. Findings consistently show increased water residence time, enhanced soil-moisture storage, expanded riparian vegetation, extended flow duration, and shifts toward greater latent-heat flux—producing localized cooling and strengthened ecohydrological feedbacks. Building on these localized effects, we articulate a hypothesis that links the spatial extent of restoration, the density of NIDS per unit drainage area, and the magnitude of the latent-to-sensible-heat contrast generated by wetter post-rainfall conditions. Specifically, we hypothesize that when NIDS are implemented at densities permitted by topography and across areas large enough to maintain elevated soil moisture after storm events, the resulting increases in latent heat flux, surface cooling, and boundary-layer moistening may enhance moisture convergence and boundary-layer development, potentially increasing the likelihood or stability of convective precipitation, analogous to how reductions in these processes have contributed to regional drought intensification. These land–atmosphere feedbacks remain untested at scale but represent an important research Frontier. By integrating hydrologic, geomorphic, ecological, and atmospheric perspectives, this review provides a comprehensive framework for considering how low-tech, landscape-scale interventions can strengthen watershed resilience and contribute to climate-relevant nature-based solutions.

Arizona↗
USGS2025

A nationwide evaluation of crowd-sourced ambient temperature data

Growing concerns about heat in urban areas paired with the sparsity of weather stations have resulted in individuals drawing on data from citizen science sensor networks to fill in data gaps. The PurpleAir are the most widely-used low-cost air quality sensors in the contiguous United States with 14,777 deployed between 1 Jan 2017 and 20 July 2021. Although the air quality data from PurpleAir sensors have been widely studied, less attention has been paid to reported temperature. We compare temperature metrics reported by PurpleAir sensors with a gridded temperature product, the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS)-2, which although not a gold-standard measure of temperature, is widely used in epidemiologic research. We evaluate the lag between indoor and outdoor PurpleAir temperatures. We report associations of the difference between outdoor PurpleAir temperatures and NLDAS-2 temperatures, an indicator of degradation, and the duration of sensor operation. Finally, based on the temperature range recorded by the outdoor PurpleAir sensors vis.a.vis NLDAS-2 temperatures, we provide a list of 271 (2.5%) sensors potentially misclassified as outdoor and likely located indoors. We observed that outdoor PurpleAir sensors agreed well with NLDAS-2 (R2 > 0.82). This association broke down under warm conditions (daily average NLDAS ≥ 21.1oC). Landcover and climate zone were significant modifiers of the association between PurpleAir and NLDAS-2 temperature metrics with the poorest PurpleAir- NLDAS-2 agreement in urban areas. Indoor PurpleAir temperatures lagged hourly NLDAS temperatures by two hours across almost all climate zones. The mean difference in hourly PurpleAir and NLDAS-2 temperatures increased by 0.57oC for every operational year, suggesting that careful attention must be paid to degradation. Overall, we find for use in epidemiological studies, that the PurpleAir sensor data is a reliable metric of daytime mean air temperature, but researchers should be aware of its limitations when examining extreme heat, or when aggregating sensor data across multiple years.

Frontiers of Environmental Science and Engineering↗
USGS2008

Effect of rhizosphere on soil microbial community and in-situ pyrene biodegradation

To access the influence of a vegetation on soil microorganisms toward organic pollutant biogegration, this study examined the rhizospheric effects of four plant species (sudan grass, white clover, alfalfa, and fescue) on the soil microbial community and in-situ pyrene (PYR) biodegradation. The results indicated that the spiked PYR levels in soils decreased substantially compared to the control soil without planting. With equal planted densities, the efficiencies of PYR degradation in rhizosphere with sudan grass, white clover, alfalfa and fescue were 34.0%, 28.4%, 27.7%, and 9.9%, respectively. However, on the basis of equal root biomass the efficiencies were in order of white clover >> alfalfa > sudan > fescue. The increased PYR biodegradation was attributed to the enhanced bacterial population and activity induced by plant roots in the rhizosphere. Soil microbial species and biomasses were elucidated in terms of microbial phospholipid ester-linked fatty acid (PLFA) biomarkers. The principal component analysis (PCA) revealed significant changes in PLFA pattern in planted and non-planted soils spiked with PYR. Total PLFAs in planted soils were all higher than those in non-planted soils. PLFA assemblages indicated that bacteria were the primary PYR degrading microorganisms, and that Gram-positive bacteria exhibited higher tolerance to PYR than Gram-negative bacteria did. ?? 2008 Higher Education Press and Springer-Verlag GmbH.

Frontiers of Environmental Science and Engineering↗
USGS2023

Approaching the upper boundary of driver-response relationships: Identifying factors using a novel framework integrating quantile regression with interpretable machine learning

The identification of factors that may be forcing ecological observations to approach the upper boundary provides insight into potential mechanisms affecting driver-response relationships, and can help inform ecosystem management, but has rarely been explored. In this study, we propose a novel framework integrating quantile regression with interpretable machine learning. In the first stage of the framework, we estimate the upper boundary of a driver-response relationship using quantile regression. Next, we calculate “potentials” of the response variable depending on the driver, which are defined as vertical distances from the estimated upper boundary of the relationship to observations in the driver-response variable scatter plot. Finally, we identify key factors impacting the potential using a machine learning model. We illustrate the necessary steps to implement the framework using the total phosphorus (TP)-Chlorophyll a (CHL) relationship in lakes across the continental US. We found that the nitrogen to phosphorus ratio (N:P), annual average precipitation, total nitrogen (TN), and summer average air temperature were key factors impacting the potential of CHL depending on TP. We further revealed important implications of our findings for lake eutrophication management. The important role of N:P and TN on the potential highlights the co-limitation of phosphorus and nitrogen and indicates the need for dual nutrient criteria. Future wetter and/or warmer climate scenarios can decrease the potential which may reduce the efficacy of lake eutrophication management. The novel framework advances the application of quantile regression to identify factors driving observations to approach the upper boundary of driver-response relationships.

Frontiers of Environmental Science & Engineering↗
USGS2018

Exploring the impacts of seagrass on coupled marsh-tidal flat morphodynamics

Intertidal coastal environments are prone to changes induced by sea level rise, increases in storminess, temperature, and anthropogenic disturbances. It is unclear how changes in external drivers may affect the dynamics of low energy coastal environments because their response is non-linear, and characterized by many thresholds and discontinuities. As such, process-based modeling of the ecogeomorphic processes underlying the dynamics of these ecosystems is useful, not only to predict their change through time, but also to generate new hypotheses and research questions. Here, we used a three-point dynamic model to investigate how seagrass might affect the behavior of coupled marsh-tidal flat systems. The model directly incorporates ecogeomorphological feedbacks among wind waves, salt marsh vegetation, allochthonous sediment loading, seagrasses and sea level rise. The model was applied to examine potential behaviors of salt marsh systems in the Virginia coastal bays. Differences due to the presence or absence of seagrass and stochastic vs. constant drivers lead to the emergence of complex behaviors in the coupled salt marsh-tidal flat system. In intertidal areas without seagrass, small tidal flats are unlikely to expand and provide enough sediment to the salt marshes to combat sea level rise. However, as the tidal flat expands, the concurrent increase in sediment supply due to wave-induced processes allows for the salt marsh to maintain pace with sea level at the expense of salt marsh extent. The presence of seagrass has two effects: (1) it decreases near bed shear stresses thus reducing the sediment flux to the salt marsh platform; (2) it reduces the wave energy acting on the salt marsh scarp, thus reducing boundary erosion. Model results indicate that the reductions in wave power and near bed shear stresses when seagrass is present provide an overall stabilizing effect on the coupled marsh-tidal flat system; but as water depth increases due to sea level rise or as external sediment supply increases, light conditions decline and the system reverts to that of a bare tidal flat.

Frontiers in Environmental Science↗
USGS2019

Monarch habitat as a component of multifunctional landscape restoration using continuous riparian buffers

Stabilizing the eastern, migratory population of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) is expected to require substantial habitat restoration on agricultural land in the core breeding area of the Upper Midwestern U.S. Previous research has considered the potential to utilize marginal land for this purpose because of its low productivity, erodible soils, and high nutrient input requirements. This strategy has strong potential for restoring milkweed (Asclepias spp.), but may be limited in terms of its ability to generate additional biophysical and socioeconomic benefits for local communities. Here we explore the possibility of restoring milkweed via the creation of continuous riparian buffer strips around rivers and streams throughout the region. We use a GIS-based analysis to consider the potential of several different buffer-width scenarios to meet milkweed restoration targets. We further estimate the ability of these habitat areas to provide additional functionality in the form of crop pollination and water quality regulation across the entire region. Finally, we estimate the conservative economic value of these ecosystem services and compare it with the lost value of crops associated with each scenario. Results suggest that riparian buffers could be used to meet 10-43% of the total milkweed restoration target of 1.3 billion new stems with moderate management. The value of water quality and pollination benefits provided by buffers is estimated to exceed costs only for our smallest buffer-width scenario, with a cost-benefit ratio of 1:2. Larger buffer widths provide more milkweed, but costs to farmers exceed the benefits we were able to quantify. The large-scale restoration of multifunctional riparian corridors thus has the potential to be a win-win scenario, adding milkweed stems while also providing a variety of other valuable benefits. This suggests the potential to leverage monarch habitat restoration efforts for the benefit of a wider variety of species and broader coalition of beneficiaries.

Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Indian↗
USGS2019

Soil aggregates as a source of dissolved organic carbon to streams: An experimental study on the effect of solution chemistry on water extractable carbon

Over the past two decades, headwater streams of the northern hemisphere have shown increased amounts of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), coinciding with decreased acid deposition. The exact nature of the mechanistic link between precipitation composition and stream water DOC is still widely debated in the literature. We hypothesize that soil aggregates are the main source of stream water DOC and that DOC release is greater in organic rich, riparian soils vs. hillslope soils. To test these hypotheses, we collected soils from two main landscape positions (hillslope and riparian zones) from the acid-impacted Sleepers River Research Watershed in northeastern Vermont. We performed aqueous soil extracts with solutions of different ionic strength (IS) and composition to simulate changes in soil solution. We monitored dynamic changes in soil particle size, aggregate architecture and composition, leachate DOC concentrations, dissolved organic matter (DOM) characteristics by fluorescence spectroscopy and trends in bioavailability. In low IS solutions, extractable DOC concentrations were significantly higher, particle size (by laser diffraction) was significantly smaller and organic material was separated from mineral particles in scanning electron microscope observations. Furthermore, higher DOC concentrations were found in Na + compared to Ca 2+ solutions of the same IS. These effects are attributed to aggregate dispersion due to expanding diffuse double layers in decreased IS solutions and to decreased bridging by divalent cations. Landscape position impacted quality but not quantity of released DOC. Overall, these results indicate that soil aggregates might be one important link between Critical Zone inputs (i.e., precipitation) and exports in streams.

Vermont↗
USGS2019

Wind sheltering impacts on land-atmosphere fluxes over fens

Wetlands and their ability to mitigate climate change motivates restorative and protective action; however, scientific understanding of land-atmosphere interactions is restricted by our limited continuous observations of gaseous fluxes. Many wetlands are small in spatial scale and embedded in forested landscapes. Yet, little is known about how the relative sheltering of forests affects net carbon (C) and energy balance. Here, we analyze coterminous USGS and Ameriflux eddy covariance flux tower observations over three years in two shrub fens in Northern Wisconsin, one more sheltered (US-ALQ) than the other (US-Los). Unsurprisingly, the open site showed higher overall wind speeds. This should have implications for atmospheric fluxes in wetlands as wind-forced processes are essential in promoting gas exchange over water. While both sites had similar half-hourly net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE) during daytime, there were significant differences in nighttime NEE, as well as in net radiation partitioning in early spring and late summer. Sensible heat (H) fluxes were smaller at the sheltered fen except for the months of July-September. In contrast, latent heat (LE) fluxes were higher in every month except July. Additionally, sheltered fen ecosystem respiration had a weaker linear correlation with air temperature (R: 0.08 versus 0.57 for the open fen). Our work suggests that canopy sheltering does not cause significant differences in half-hourly NEE during the day, but rather the largest differences such as lower CO2 emissions occur at nighttime due to higher variance at very low wind speeds. Sheltering also influenced direction of air flow, mean wind speeds in day versus night, energy balance, and sensible and latent heat fluxes. We discuss implications of these findings for wetland restoration.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2020

Estimating late 19th century hydrology in the Greater Everglades Ecosystem: An integration of paleoecologic data and models

Determining hydrologic conditions prior to instrumental records is a challenge for restoration of freshwater ecosystems worldwide. Paleoecologic data provide this information on past conditions and when these data are used to adjust hydrologic models, allow conditions to be hindcast that may not be directly estimated from the paleo-data alone. In this context, the paleo-data provide real-world estimates as input to the models. Restoration of the Greater Everglades Ecosystem requires this understanding of the hydrology of the natural system prior to significant alterations due to water management and land use. Large scale models such as the Natural Systems Model (NSM 4.6.2) have been used by the South Florida Water Management District and other agencies responsible for restoration to estimate past hydrologic conditions; however, these models typically portray a drier natural system for the beginning of the 20th century than what is indicated by paleoecologic analyses and historical data. The purpose of this study is to estimate pre-20th century water levels, hydroperiods and flow in the freshwater wetlands of the Everglades by using pollen assemblage data in three sediment cores to adjust the Natural Systems Model. This study is designed to further test estimates of flow through the Everglades derived from analysis of sediment cores collected in Florida Bay. The results demonstrate that the NSM 4.6.2 underestimates water levels and hydroperiods in the Everglades compared to the paleo-adjusted NSM 4.6.2 model outputs. Flow models that use the paleo-adjusted water levels as input indicate flow through Shark River Slough in the late 19th century was approximately two times flow between 1990 and 2000, and flow through Taylor Slough was approximately three times flow between 1990 and 2000. The flow estimates derived from this study agree with the estimates derived from earlier studies using estuarine cores. This integration of paleoecologic information and hydrologic models provides resource managers with the best available estimates of past conditions and allows them to set realistic targets for restoration of freshwater ecosystems.

Florida↗
USGS2020

Incorporating established conservation networks into freshwater conservation planning results in more workable prioritizations

Resources for addressing stream fish conservation issues are often limited and the stressors impacting fish continue to increase, so decision makers often rely on tools to prioritize locations for conservation actions. Because conservation networks already exist in many areas, incorporating these into the planning process can increase the ability of decision makers to carry out management actions. In this study we aim to identify priority areas within established networks to provide an approach which allows managers to focus efforts on the most valuable areas they control, while identifying areas outside of the network, which support species with minimal representation within the network, for acquisition or conservation partnerships. The goal of this approach is to prioritize sites to achieve high levels of species representation while also developing workable solutions. We applied a methodology incorporating established networks into a systematic conservation planning process for fish in temperate wadeable streams located in Missouri, USA. We compared how well species were represented in our approach with two commonly used alternatives: A blank slate approach which used the same systematic conservation planning technique but did not incorporate established networks, and a habitat integrity approach based solely on anthropogenic threat data. Relative to the blank slate approach, our approach required 210% more segments for representation of all species, and contained an average of 0.5 additional occurrences for the least well-represented species. Although the blank slate solution was more efficient in achieving species representation, 77% of segments in this solution were not already protected. This would likely pose a challenge for implementing conservation actions. Relative to habitat integrity-based priorities, our approach required only 38% of the number of stream segments to achieve representation of all species and contained an average of 5 additional occurrences of the least represented species, representing a substantial gain in representation. Incorporating established networks may allow managers to focus resources on areas with the greatest conservation value within established networks and to identify the most valuable areas complementary to the established networks, resulting in priorities which may be more actionable and effective than those developed by alternative approaches.

Missouri↗
USGS2020

Vegetation vs. anoxic controls on degradation of plant litter in a restored wetland

The ability of wetlands to accrete organic matter in response to rising sea level is a key to landscape resilience, especially in light of reduced sediment availability consequent to dam construction and channelization. This study examined the degradation of cattail ( Typha spp.) and tule ( Schoenoplectus acutus ) litters in restored wetlands through the lens of lignin, a major structural biopolymer in vascular plants with degradation characteristics very sensitive to oxic versus anoxic conditions. A series of litterbags were deployed during the first 10 years after flooding of Deep (55 cm) and Shallow (25 cm) restored wetlands. As emergent marsh vegetation spread through the maturing wetlands, anoxic conditions were more prevalent and overall degradation rates of litter in litterbags were lower. In later experiments in the maturing wetlands, lignin was progressively enriched in litter as evidenced by carbon-normalized yields (Λ 8 ) that increased in tule starting materials from 6.3 to 7.1 mg 100 mgOC –1 to as high as 9.9 mg 100 mgOC –1 , and in cattail starting materials from 5.9 to 7.0 mg 100 mgOC –1 to as high as 10.9 mg 100 mgOC –1 . However, in an experiment initiated soon after the restored wetlands were constructed, Λ 8 in tule litter decreased from 6.8 to 3.6 mg 100 mgOC –1 , highlighting the prevalence of initial oxic conditions. With the exception of the early oxic conditions for tule, there was an overall trend of decreasing lignin acid-to-aldehyde ratios with litter degradation, which runs counter to most studies in the literature. We hypothesize that this reflects the utilization of more oxygen-rich lignin components as electron acceptors in redox reactions. No consistent differences were observed in degradation patterns between the Shallow and Deep wetlands. There were distinct differences in lignin degradation in cattail (more resistant) versus tule (less resistant), which indicates that although anoxia may be the dominant control on organic matter accretion in wetlands, specific types of vegetation in restored or constructed wetlands affects organic matter preservation, and hence accretion. Thus, selective management of predominant species in wetlands may prove important for the ability of wetlands to maintain emergent vegetation during sea level rise and to preserve the overall stability of wetland soils.

California↗
USGS2021

Quantifying slopes as a driver of forest to marsh conversion using geospatial techniques: Application to Chesapeake Bay coastal-plain, USA

Coastal salt marshes, which provide valuable ecosystem services such as flood mitigation and carbon sequestration, are threatened by rising sea level. In response, these ecosystems migrate landward, converting available upland into salt marsh. In the coastal-plain surrounding Chesapeake Bay, United States, conversion of coastal forest to salt marsh is well-documented and may offset salt marsh loss due to sea level rise, sediment deficits, and wave erosion. Land slope at the marsh-forest boundary is an important factor determining migration likelihood, however, the standard method of using field measurements to assess slope across the marsh-forest boundary is impractical on the scale of an estuary. Therefore, we developed a general slope quantification method that uses high resolution elevation data and a repurposed shoreline analysis tool to determine slope along the marsh-forest boundary for the entire Chesapeake Bay coastal-plain and find that less than 3% of transects have a slope value less than 1%; these low slope environments offer more favorable conditions for forest to marsh conversion. Then, we combine the bay-wide slope and elevation data with inundation modeling from Hurricane Isabel to determine likelihood of coastal forest conversion to salt marsh. This method can be applied to local and estuary-scale research to support management decisions regarding which upland forested areas are more critical to preserve as available space for marsh migration.

Delaware, Maryland, Virginia↗
USGS2022

An assessment of future tidal marsh resilience in the San Francisco Estuary through modeling and quantifiable metrics of sustainability

Quantitative, broadly applicable metrics of resilience are needed to effectively manage tidal marshes into the future. Here we quantified three metrics of temporal marsh resilience: time to marsh drowning, time to marsh tipping point, and the probability of a regime shift, defined as the conditional probability of a transition to an alternative super-optimal, suboptimal, or drowned state. We used organic matter content (loss on ignition, LOI) and peat age combined with the Coastal Wetland Equilibrium Model (CWEM) to track wetland development and resilience under different sea-level rise scenarios in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (Delta) of California. A 100-year hindcast of the model showed excellent agreement ( R 2 = 0.96) between observed (2.86 mm/year) and predicted vertical accretion rates (2.98 mm/year) and correctly predicted a recovery in LOI ( R 2 = 0.76) after the California Gold Rush. Vertical accretion in the tidal freshwater marshes of the Delta is dominated by organic production. The large elevation range of the vegetation combined with high relative marsh elevation provides Delta marshes with resilience and elevation capital sufficiently great to tolerate centenary sea-level rise (CLSR) as high as 200 cm. The initial relative elevation of a marsh was a strong determinant of marsh survival time and tipping point. For a Delta marsh of average elevation, the tipping point at which vertical accretion no longer keeps up with the rate of sea-level rise is 50 years or more. Simulated, triennial additions of 6 mm of sediment via episodic atmospheric rivers increased the proportion of marshes surviving from 51% to 72% and decreased the proportion drowning from 49% to 28%. Our temporal metrics provide critical time frames for adaptively managing marshes, restoring marshes with the best chance of survival, and seizing opportunities for establishing migration corridors, which are all essential for safeguarding future habitats for sensitive species.

California↗