Including Rural America in academic conservation science
No abstract available.
Frontiers in Conservation Science↗
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Hidden in plain sight: Detecting invasive species when they are morphologically similar to native species
Early detection and rapid response (EDRR) can help mitigate and control invasive species outbreaks early on but its success is dependent on accurate identification of invasive species. We evaluated a novel outbreak in San Diego County, California of the Sonoran Spotted Whiptail ( Aspidoscelis sonorae ) in order to confirm their spread as well as quantify how to better detect and potentially manage this invasive species in California. We found that A. sonorae went undetected for over two years due to its morphological similarity to native whiptails and that it has spread rapidly since they were first observed. There are two species of native California whiptails with which A. sonorae can be confused locally, the Orange-throated Whiptail ( Aspidoscelis hyperythrus ), and to a lesser extent the Tiger Whiptail ( Aspidoscelis tigris ). We review key diagnostic features to distinguish A. sonorae from native California whiptails. We also discuss how to efficiently use widely available community science tools to rapidly assess a novel invasive species outbreak and outline suggestions to help manage cryptic invasive species.
California↗
Counterfactuals to assess effects to species and systems from renewable energy development
Renewable energy production, mostly via wind, solar, and biofuels, is central to goals worldwide to reduce carbon emissions and mitigate anthropogenic climate change (IPCC, 2014; Pörtner et al., 2021). Nevertheless, adverse impacts to natural systems, especially fatalities of wildlife and alteration of habitat, are key challenges for renewable energy production (Allison et al., 2019; Katzner et al., 2019). Because of the magnitude of these challenges, extensive effort has been invested in surveys and science to understand the environmental effects of renewable energy on species and systems. Nevertheless, these impacts have not been formally compared relative to counterfactual conditions (Bull et al., 2021; Coetzee and Gaston, 2021), i.e., those occurring in the absence of renewable energy. As such, cumulative ecological impact assessments required by many regulating agencies typically only consider the adverse impacts of renewables, without evaluating whether mitigative effects of current and planned build-out (e.g., Larson et al., 2020) will offset their adverse impacts to species and natural systems (Allison et al., 2014). Accordingly, these critical decision processes have an insufficient perspective to foster fully informed decisions, and, for some species or systems, renewable energy could lead to more profound impacts than those it is intended to prevent. Furthermore, because of this approach and, despite the well-studied benefits to society of renewable energy development (IPCC, 2014), the ecological value of renewable energy is often premised on the plausible but untested assumption that its negative effects to natural populations and systems are less consequential than the negative effects in alternative scenarios with less renewable energy and greater climate change. A more comprehensive framing of the counterfactual in cumulative ecological impact assessments would evaluate, for each species or system, the incremental effects of renewables over their full life cycle against the incremental effects they provide by mitigating climate change. This framing is important because a given species or system may see net positive or net negative effects from either renewables or climate change. Furthermore, cumulative impact assessments could identify optimized tradeoffs that balance, for each species or system, the effects of both climate change and renewable energy.
Frontiers in Conservation Science↗
Distilling professional opinion to gauge vulnerability of Guam avifauna to Brown Treesnake predation
The avifauna of Guam was devastated by the introduction of the Brown Treesnake, and the restoration of native birds would need to address the problem with eradication or suppression of BTS. With eradication of the snake unlikely in the near term, and suppression capabilities limited to specific finite areas, key information for reintroductions is how low BTS abundance will likely need to be for each bird species to be re-established based on their vulnerability to BTS predation. Here, we estimate vulnerability, which can no longer be measured directly, so biologists who are familiar with one or more of seven Guam birds were surveyed to obtain their knowledge and produce quantitative vulnerability estimates. As is typical of birds adapted to islands devoid of predators, respondents judged that our focal species exhibit few predator avoidance and tolerance traits, leaving body size as the prime determinant of vulnerability. Respondent opinion also holds that any behavior that reduces the likelihood of an encounter by BTS, e.g., roosting/nesting in palm crowns, cavity nesting, and in particular urban dwelling, substantially reduces vulnerability. Our results can help inform species-specific decisions about when it may be safe to consider the release of birds on Guam depending on the relative vulnerability of each species to predation by BTS.
Guam↗
Individual variation in temporal dynamics of post-release habitat selection
Translocated animals undergo a phase of behavioral adjustment after being released in a novel environment, initially prioritizing exploration and gradually shifting toward resource exploitation. This transition has been termed post-release behavioral modification. Post-release behavioral modification may also manifest as changes in habitat selection through time, and these temporal dynamics may differ between individuals. We aimed to evaluate how post-release behavioral modification is reflected in temporal dynamics of habitat selection and its variability across individuals using a population of translocated female greater sage-grouse as a case study. Sage-grouse were translocated from Wyoming to North Dakota (USA) during the summers of 2018–2020. We analyzed individual habitat selection as a function of sagebrush cover, herbaceous cover, slope, and distance to roads. Herbaceous cover is a key foraging resource for sage-grouse during summer; thus, we expected a shift from exploration to exploitation to manifest as temporally-varying selection for herbaceous cover. For each individual sage-grouse ( N = 26), we tested two competing models: a null model with no time-dependence and a model with time-dependent selection for herbaceous cover. We performed model selection at the individual level using an information-theoretic approach. Time-dependence was supported for five individuals, unsupported for seven, and the two models were indistinguishable based on AIC c for the remaining fourteen. We found no association between the top-ranked model and individual reproductive status (brood-rearing or not). We showed that temporal dynamics of post-release habitat selection may emerge in some individuals but not in others, and that failing to account for time-dependence may hinder the detection of steady-state habitat selection patterns. These findings demonstrate the need to consider both temporal dynamics and individual variability in habitat selection when conducting post-release monitoring to inform translocation protocols.
Frontiers in Conservation Science↗
Impacts of a non-indigenous ecosystem engineer, the American beaver (Castor canadensis), in a biodiversity hotspot
Non-native species having high per capita impacts in invaded communities are those that modulate resource availability and alter disturbance regimes in ways that are biologically incompatible with the native biota. In areas where it has been introduced by humans, American beaver ( Castor canadensis ) is an iconic example of such species due to its capacity to alter trophic dynamics of entire ecosystems and create new invasional pathways for other non-native species. The species is problematic in several watersheds within the Southern California-Northern Baja California Coast Ecoregion, a recognized hotspot of biodiversity, due to its ability to modify habitat in ways that favor invasive predators and competitors over the region's native species and habitat. Beaver was deliberately introduced across California in the mid-1900s and generally accepted as non-native to the region up to the early 2000s; however, articles promoting the idea that beaver may be a natural resident have gained traction in recent years, due in large part to the species' charismatic nature rather than by presentation of sound evidence. Here, we discuss the problems associated with beaver disturbance and its effects on conserving the region's native fauna and flora. We refute arguments underlying the claim that beaver is native to the region, and review paleontological, zooarchaeological, and historical survey data from renowned field biologists and naturalists over the past ~160 years to show that no evidence exists that beaver arrived by any means other than deliberate human introduction. Managing this ecosystem engineer has potential to reduce the richness and abundance of other non-native species because the novel, engineered habitat now supporting these species would diminish in beaver-occupied watersheds. At the same time, hydrologic functionality would shift toward more natural, ephemeral conditions that favor the regions' native species while suppressing the dominance of the most insidious invaders.
California↗
Hurdles to developing quantitative decision support for Endangered Species Act resource allocation
The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service oversees the recovery of many species protected by the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA). Recent research suggests that a structured approach to allocating conservation resources could increase recovery outcomes for ESA listed species. Quantitative approaches to decision support can efficiently allocate limited financial resources and maximize desired outcomes. Yet, developing quantitative decision support under real-world constraints is challenging. Approaches that pair research teams and end-users are generally the most effective. However, co-development requires overcoming “hurdles” that can arise because of differences in the mental models of the co-development team. These include perceptions that: (1) scarce funds should be spent on action, not decision support; (2) quantitative approaches are only useful for simple decisions; (3) quantitative tools are inflexible and prescriptive black boxes; (4) available data are not good enough to support decisions; and (5) prioritization means admitting defeat. Here, we describe how we addressed these misperceptions during the development of a prototype resource allocation decision support tool for understanding trade-offs in U.S. endangered species recovery. We describe how acknowledging these hurdles and identifying solutions enabled us to progress with development. We believe that our experience can assist other applications of developing quantitative decision support for resource allocation.
Frontiers in Conservation Science↗
Spatial models of jaguar energy expenditure in response to border wall construction and remediation
The construction of a wall at the United States-Mexico border is known to impede and deter movement of terrestrial wildlife between the two countries. One such species is the jaguar, in its northernmost range in the borderlands of Arizona and Sonora. We developed an anisotropic cost distance model for jaguar in a binational crossing area of the Madrean Sky Islands at the United States-Mexico border in Southern Arizona as a case study by using previously collected GPS tracking data for jaguars, bioenergetic calculations for pumas, and a digital elevation model. This model describes projected energy expenditure for jaguar to reach key water sources north of the international border. These desert springs and the broader study region provide vital habitat for jaguar conservation and reintroduction efforts in the United States. An emerging impediment to jaguar conservation and reintroduction is border infrastructure including border wall. By comparing walled and un-walled border sections, and three remediation scenarios, we demonstrate that existing border infrastructure significantly increases energy expenditure by jaguars and that some partial remediation scenarios are more beneficial than others. Our results demonstrate opportunities for remediation. Improved understanding of how border infrastructure impacts physiological requirements and resulting impacts to jaguar and other terrestrial wildlife in the United States-Mexico borderlands may inform conservation management.
Arizona↗
Gene pool boundaries for the Yosemite toad (Anaxyrus canorus) reveal asymmetrical migration within meadow neighborhoods
The Yosemite toad ( Anaxyrus [ Bufo ] canorus ) is a federally threatened species of meadow-specializing amphibian endemic to the high-elevation Sierra Nevada Mountains of California. The species is one of the first amphibians to undergo a large demographic collapse that was well-documented, and is reputed to remain in low abundance throughout its range. Recent phylogeographic work has demonstrated that Pleistocene toad lineages diverged and then admixed to differing extents across an elevational gradient. Although lineage divisions may have significant effects on evolutionary trajectories over large spatial and temporal scales, present-day population dynamics must be delineated in order to manage and conserve the species effectively. In this study, we used a double-digest RADseq dataset to address three primary questions: (1) Are single meadows or neighborhoods of nearby meadows most correlated with population boundaries? (2) Does asymmetrical migration occur among neighborhoods of nearby meadows? (3) What topographic or hydrological variables predict such asymmetrical migration in these meadow neighborhoods? Hierarchical STRUCTURE and AMOVA analyses suggested that populations are typically circumscribed by a single meadow, although 84% of meadows exist in neighborhoods of at least two meadows connected by low levels of migration, and over half (53%) of neighborhoods examined display strong asymmetrical migration. Meadow neighborhoods often contain one or more large and flat “hub” meadows that experience net immigration, surrounded by smaller and topographically rugged “satellite” meadows with net emigration. Hubs tend to contain more genetic diversity and could be prioritized for conservation and habitat management and as potential sources for reestablishment efforts.
California↗
Taking the leap: A binational translocation effort to close the 420-km gap in the Baja California lineage of the California red-legged frog (Rana draytonii)
Conservation translocations, the human-mediated movement and release of a living organism for a conservation benefit, are increasingly recommended in species’ recovery plans as a technique for mitigating population declines or augmenting genetic diversity. However, translocation protocols for species with broad distributions may require regionally specific considerations to increase success, as environmental gradients may pose different constraints on population establishment and persistence in different parts of the range. Here we report on ongoing, genetically informed translocations of a threatened amphibian, California red-legged frog ( Rana draytonii ), from Baja California, México, to extirpated parts of the range in southern California in the United States, where contemporary stressors related to urbanization, invasive species, and aridification add to the natural environmental challenges already present for amphibians at this ‘warm edge’ of the range. We describe the collaborative binational planning required to jumpstart the effort, the fine-tuning of protocols for collection, transport, headstarting, and release of individuals, and results of multiple translocations, where time will tell whether the successes to date have reached their full potential. The steps outlined in this paper can serve as a template to inform future conservation translocations of imperiled amphibians across the U.S./México border, where the phylogenetics, historical biogeography and future habitat availability of a focal species are blind to political boundaries and critical to guiding recovery actions across the range.
Baja California, California↗
Evolutionary dynamics inform management interventions of a hanging garden obligate, Carex specuicola
Uncovering the historical and contemporary processes shaping rare species with complex distributions is of growing importance due to threats such as habitat destruction and climate change. Species restricted to specialized, patchy habitat may persist by virtue of life history characteristics facilitating ongoing gene flow and dispersal, but they could also reflect the remnants of formerly widespread, suitable habitat that existed during past climate regimes. If formerly widespread species did not rely upon traits facilitating high dispersibility to persist, contemporary populations could be at high risk of extirpation or extinction. Fortunately, genomic investigations provide an opportunity to illuminate such alternative scenarios while simultaneously offering guidance for future management interventions. Herein, we test the role of these mechanisms in shaping patterns of genomic diversity and differentiation across a highly restricted and rare ecosystem: desert hanging gardens. We focus on Carex specuicola (Cyperaceae), a hanging garden obligate narrowly distributed in the Four Corners region of the southwestern United States that is listed as Threatened under the United States Endangered Species Act. Population structure and diversity analyses reveal that hanging garden populations are shaped by strong genetic drift, but that individuals in gardens are occasionally more closely related to individuals at other gardens than to individuals within the same garden. Similarly, gardens separated by long geographic distances may contain individuals that are more closely related compared to individuals in gardens separated by short geographic distances. Demographic modeling supports historical gene flow between some contemporary garden pairs, which is corroborated by low estimates of inbreeding coefficients and recent divergence times. As such, multiple lines of evidence support dispersal and gene flow across C. specuicola populations at both small and large spatial scales, indicating that even if C. specuicola was formerly more widespread, it may be well suited to persist in hanging gardens so long as suitable habitat remains available. Analyses like those demonstrated herein may be broadly applicable for understanding the short- and long-term evolutionary processes influencing rare species, and especially those having complex distributions across heterogeneous landscapes.
Arizona, Utah↗
Perception and trust influence acceptance for black bears more than bear density or conflicts
Introduction: To sustain black bear (Ursus americanus) populations, wildlife managers should understand the coupled socio-ecological systems that influence acceptance capacity for bears. Method: In a study area encompassing a portion of New York State, we spatially matched datasets from three sources: human-bear conflict reports between 2006 and 2018, estimates of local bear density in 2017–2018, and responses to a 2018 property owner survey (n=1,772). We used structural equation modeling to test hypothesized relationships between local human-bear conflict, local bear density, and psychological variables. Results: The final model explained 57% of the variance in acceptance. The effect of bear population density on acceptance capacity for bears was relatively small and was mediated by a third variable: perception of proximity to the effects of human-bear interactions. The variables that exerted a direct effect on acceptance were perception of bear-related benefits, perception of bear-related risks, perceived proximity to effects of human-bear interactions, and being a hunter. Perception of bear-related benefits had a greater effect on acceptance than perception of bear-related risks. Perceived proximity to effects of human-bear interactions was affected by local bear density, but also was affected by social trust. Increased social trust had nearly the same effect on perceived proximity as decreased bear density. Social trust had the greatest indirect effect on acceptance of any variable in the model. Discussion: Findings suggest wildlife agencies could maintain public acceptance for bears through an integrated approach that combines actions to address bear-related perceptions and social trust along with active management of bear populations.
New York↗
Range-wide trends in tiger conservation landscapes, 2001 - 2020
Of all the ways human beings have modified the planet over the last 10,000 years, habitat loss is the most important for other species. To address this most critical threat to biodiversity, governments, non-governmental actors, and the public need to know, in near real-time, where and when habitat loss is occurring. Here we present an integrated habitat modelling system at the range-wide scale for the tiger ( Panthera tigris ) to measure and monitor changes in tiger habitat at range-wide, national, biome, and landscape scales, as often as the underlying inputs change. We find that after nearly 150 years of decline, effective potential habitat for the tiger seems to have stabilized at around 16% of its indigenous extent (1.817 million km 2 ). As of the 1st of January 2020, there were 63 Tiger Conservation Landscapes in the world, covering 911,920 km 2 shared across ten of the 30 modern countries which once harbored tiger populations. Over the last 20 years, the total area of Tiger Conservation Landscapes (TCLs) declined from 1.025 million km 2 in 2001, a range-wide loss of 11%, with the greatest losses in Southeast Asia and southern China. Meanwhile, we documented expansions of modelled TCL area in India, Nepal, Bhutan, northern China, and southeastern Russia. We find significant potential for restoring tigers to existing habitats, identified here in 226 Restoration Landscapes. If these habitats had sufficient prey and were tigers able to find them, the occupied land base for tigers might increase by 50%. Our analytical system, incorporating Earth observations, in situ biological data, and a conservation-oriented modelling framework, provides the information the countries need to protect tigers and enhance habitat, including dynamic, spatially explicit maps and results, updated as often as the underlying data change. Our work builds on nearly 30 years of tiger conservation research and provides an accessible way for countries to measure progress and report outcomes. This work serves as a model for objective, range-wide, habitat monitoring as countries work to achieve the goals laid out in the Sustainable Development Goals, the 30×30 Agenda, and the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework.
Frontiers in Conservation Science↗
Models for linking hunter retention and recruitment to regulations and game populations
Introduction: Declining hunter populations across North America present wildlife management agencies with the prospect of declining revenues for wildlife conservation and management and the need for new tools to evaluate management strategies and predict future status of game species and hunters. Methods: Here we present a modeling framework and potential decision support tool for managers to link future hunter population dynamics to regulatory restrictiveness, prey abundance, and harvest success. Our hunter model is parameterized based on the authors’ judgment and can be used for demonstration purposes. We simulated three scenarios of restricted harvest, moderate harvest and liberal harvest. Results: Our simulations show that even though liberal harvest predicts higher cumulative license sales revenue, it corresponds with a slight decline in buck abundance over 10 years. In contrast, highly restrictive harvest corresponds with deer population growth, but a near collapse of hunter populations. Our model demonstrates that managers might face tradeoffs between managing for deer population abundance and hunting revenue and clarifies how these factors might affect decision making. Discussion: The utility of our tool would be dependent on accessing data on hunter retention and recruitment, however, the strength of our paper is in highlighting a new way of thinking about and potentially addressing these potential tradeoffs. Further, these simulations demonstrate that these tools could be used to evaluate management strategies but also highlight uncertainties, establish research priorities, and potentially design an adaptive management framework.
Alabama↗
RE-ARMing salt marshes: A resilience-experimentalist approach to prescribed fire and bird conservation in high marshes of the Gulf of Mexico
Uncertainty, complexity, and dynamic changes present challenges for conservation and natural resource management. Evidence-based approaches grounded in reliable information and rigorous analysis can enhance the navigation of the uncertainties and trade-offs inherent in conservation problems. This study highlights the importance of collaborative efforts and evidence-based decision-making, specifically implementing the Resilience-Experimentalist school of adaptive management (RE-ARM), which emphasizes stakeholder involvement, shared understanding, and experimentation. Our goal was to develop an adaptive management framework to reduce the uncertainty around the use of prescribed fire to manage the habitat for eastern black rails ( Laterallus jamaicensis jamaicensis ) and mottled ducks ( Anas fulvigula ) in saltmarshes of the Gulf of Mexico. Supported by discussions at a series of workshops, we used a value of information analysis to select a fire management hypothesis to test, developed an influence diagram to represent the system under fire management, used the influence diagram to develop a Bayesian decision network (BDN), and conducted a power analysis to guide management experiments and monitoring. Value of information analysis identified fire return interval as the critical uncertainty. Our BDN provided valuable insight into how managers believe prescribed fire influences vegetation characteristics and how vegetation influences both eastern black rail occupancy and mottled duck abundance. The results of the power analysis indicated that a standard occupancy modeling framework was more useful to compare 2- and 5-year fire return intervals for black rails than two alternative designs (removal and conditional). Our BDN can be used to predict the probability of achieving the desirable vegetative response to increase the occupancy probability of black rails and abundance of mottled ducks, and monitoring data can be used to update the BDN (learn) and improve best management practices for prescribed burns (adapt). Linking the value of information, BDNs, and power analysis enhances our understanding of the system, improves management decision-making, and builds trust among scientists, interested parties, and decision-makers. This approach lays the groundwork for knowledge co-production and adaptive management.
Frontiers in Conservation Science↗
An evaluation of tradeoffs in restoring ephemeral vs. perennial habitats to conserve animal populations
Introduction: Habitat loss and degradation pose significant threats to global fish and wildlife populations, prompting substantial investments in habitat creation and restoration efforts. Not all habitats provide equal benefits, leading to challenges in prioritizing restoration actions. For example, juvenile anadromous salmonids require high quality rearing aquatic habitats to achieve the physiological requirements needed to successfully migrate to the ocean. However, there are profound disagreements among anadromous salmon restoration managers whether it is best to focus efforts on restoring in-channel habitats that are available for the entire rearing period or floodplain habitats that, while facilitating greater growth and survival than in-channel habitats, are only available for a few weeks at a time and are typically only activated every two-to-three years. Methods: We used an existing fall-run Chinook salmon decision-support model to evaluate under what conditions floodplain restoration would provide greater benefits than in-channel habitat restoration. The simulations included a wide range of floodplain inundation frequencies and durations and floodplain benefits in the form of increased survival and growth relative to in-channel habitats. Results: The simulations results indicated that in-channel habitat restoration was always the best habitat restoration action when there was no existing in-channel habitat despite simulating a wide range of flood frequency, duration, and growth and survival benefits. Floodplain restoration was generally best when there was sufficient in-channel habitat available to successfully rear most of the juveniles produced by the returning adult salmon. Discussion: We hypothesize that in-channel and floodplain habitats have different roles in salmon population maintenance with in-channel habitats regulating the overall population size and floodplains acting as recurrent resource pulses. Our study provides a quantitative framework to evaluate the benefit of these two habitat types and provides generalizable rulesets that can be used by managers when implementing habitat restoration strategies for species that inhabit both in-channel and floodplain habitats.
California↗
Applying portfolio theory to benefit endangered amphibians in coastal wetlands threatened by climate change, high uncertainty, and significant investment risk
The challenge of selecting strategies to adapt to climate change is complicated by the presence of irreducible uncertainties regarding future conditions. Decisions regarding long-term investments in conservation actions contain significant risk of failure due to these inherent uncertainties. To address this challenge, decision makers need an arsenal of sophisticated but practical tools to help guide spatial conservation strategies. Theory asserts that managing risks can be achieved by diversifying an investment portfolio to include assets – such as stocks and bonds – that respond inversely to one another under a given set of conditions. We demonstrate an approach for formalizing the diversification of conservation assets (land parcels) and actions (restoration, species reintroductions) by using correlation structure to quantify the degree of risk for any proposed management investment. We illustrate a framework for identifying future habitat refugia by integrating species distribution modeling, scenarios of climate change and sea level rise, and impacts to critical habitat. Using the plains coqui ( Eleutherodactylus juanariveroi ), an endangered amphibian known from only three small wetland populations on Puerto Rico’s coastal plains, we evaluate the distribution of potential refugia under two model parameterizations and four future sea-level rise scenarios. We then apply portfolio theory using two distinct objective functions and eight budget levels to inform investment strategies for mitigating risk and increasing species persistence probability. Models project scenario-specific declines in coastal freshwater wetlands from 2% to nearly 30% and concurrent expansions of transitional marsh and estuarine open water. Conditional on the scenario, island-wide species distribution is predicted to contract by 25% to 90%. Optimal portfolios under the first objective function – benefit maximization – emphasizes translocating frogs to existing protected areas rather than investing in the protection of new habitat. Alternatively, optimal strategies using the second objective function – a risk-benefit tradeoff framework – include significant investment to protect parcels for the purpose of reintroduction or establishing new populations. These findings suggest that leveraging existing protected areas for species persistence, while less costly, may contain excessive risk and could result in diminished conservation benefits. Although our modeling includes numerous assumptions and simplifications, we believe this framework provides useful inference for exploring resource dynamics and developing robust adaptation strategies using an approach that is generalizable to other conservation problems which are spatial or portfolio in nature and subject to unresolvable uncertainty.
Puerto Rico↗
Fine-grained temporal population monitoring of a declining, critically endangered Hawaiian honeycreeper
Annual point counts are commonly used to monitor birds to track population densities across space and time. Palila ( Loxioides bailleui ) are surveyed annually in the first quarter, but we recently instituted quarterly sampling that offers a unique opportunity to improve estimator precision. We conducted point-transect distance sampling point counts during the first quarter of 2020 through 2024, and the second through fourth quarters in 2022 and 2023, and the second quarter in 2024. The reduced sampling intensity during the quarterly counts, however, requires model-based methods to estimate abundance to the entire sampling frame. We modeled spatial and temporal correlation using a soap film smoother within a generalized additive modeling framework, a density surface model, fitted to palila counts each quarter for the five-year timeseries to track changes in population abundances. Our results indicate that palila maintained a high-density hotspot throughout the five-year timeseries; however, the extent of the hotspot declined substantially over the timeseries while densities within the hotspot declined from about 3 birds/ha in 2020 to about 1 bird/ha in 2024, which resulted in a 66% decline in palila abundances over 5 years. Density surface model estimates give on average a confidence interval width that was 74.7% shorter than the associated distance sampling confidence interval widths. Our results indicate that palila may benefit most if management actions were applied within the remaining hotspot. Additionally, this temporally fine-grained sampling provides information on seasonal movement patterns and resource tracking, and population response to management and conservation actions. Our spatially explicit, model-based approach is applicable to a wide range of monitoring programs, particularly those with inconsistent, opportunistic spatial coverage.
Hawaii↗