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Results for “Frontiers Earth Science Journal”

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Size distributions of Arctic waterbodies reveal consistent relations in their statistical moments in space and time

Arctic lowlands are characterized by large numbers of small waterbodies, which are known to affect surface energy budgets and the global carbon cycle. Statistical analysis of their size distributions has been hindered by the shortage of observations at sufficiently high spatial resolutions. This situation has now changed with the high-resolution (<5 m) circum-Arctic Permafrost Region Pond and Lake (PeRL) database recently becoming available. We have used this database to make the first consistent, high-resolution estimation of Arctic waterbody size distributions, with surface areas ranging from 0.0001 km 2 (100 m 2 ) to 1 km 2 . We found that the size distributions varied greatly across the thirty study regions investigated and that there was no single universal size distribution function (including power-law distribution functions) appropriate across all of the study regions. We did, however, find close relationships between the statistical moments (mean, variance, and skewness) of the waterbody size distributions from different study regions. Specifically, we found that the spatial variance increased linearly with mean waterbody size ( R 2 = 0.97, p < 2.2e-16) and that the skewness decreased approximately hyperbolically. We have demonstrated that these relationships (1) hold across the 30 Arctic study regions covering a variety of (bio)climatic and permafrost zones, (2) hold over time in two of these study regions for which multi-decadal satellite imagery is available, and (3) can be reproduced by simulating rising water levels in a high-resolution digital elevation model. The consistent spatial and temporal relationships between the statistical moments of the waterbody size distributions underscore the dominance of topographic controls in lowland permafrost areas. These results provide motivation for further analyses of the factors involved in waterbody development and spatial distribution and for investigations into the possibility of using statistical moments to predict future hydrologic dynamics in the Arctic.

Alaska

Late-Glacial paleoecology of the Middle Susitna Valley, Alaska: Environmental context for human dispersal

We present here the results of multi-proxy analyses (sediment geochemistry, diatoms, and pollen) from sediment cores collected at four lakes in the middle Susitna Valley, Alaska. These lakes form a transect from the tundra to the boreal forest. The retrieved cores span from ~12,000 cal yr BP to the present, with age control provided by radiometric dates and tephra deposits, some of which are newly identified. Results indicate that deglaciation occurred before 12,000 cal yr BP and that by that time, the lakes were deep, productive, and surrounded by shrub tundra. The lake with the highest sampling resolution indicates a brief climatic reversal ~11,500 cal yr BP with decreased diatom-inferred lake level and lowered lake productivity, and reduced shrub presence. During the early to middle Holocene, all of the sedimentary records provide evidence of climatic amelioration with tree expansion and productive lakes. A middle to late Holocene climatic deterioration with reduced trees and a shallower, less productive lake is also indicated. In addition, the prominent Watana tephra at ~4,000 cal yr BP likely reduced lake productivity and affected the vegetation. Even though the region was relatively productive soon after deglaciation, people did not occupy the region until ~11,000 cal yr BP, about 1000 years later, and then only sparsely. By the middle and late Holocene, the region was more densely populated and this shift in human occupancy presumably reflects changes in resource abundance, especially caribou. Whether the Watana ashfall influenced caribou abundance and thus people, is still under investigation, but given the tephra’s effect on vegetation and lake productivity, it seems likely.

Alaska

A framework for evaluating earthquake early warning for an infrastructure network: An idealized case study of a northern California rail system

Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems provide a few to tens of seconds of warning before shaking hits a site. Despite the recent rapid developments of EEW systems around the world, the optimal alert response strategy and the practical benefit of using EEW are still open-ended questions, especially in areas where EEW systems are new or have not yet been deployed. Here, we use a case study of a rail system in California’s San Francisco Bay Area to explore potential uses of EEW for rail systems. Rail systems are of particular interest not only because they are important lifeline infrastructure and a common application for EEW around the world, but also because their geographically broad yet networked infrastructure makes them almost uniquely well suited for utilizing EEW. While the most obvious potential benefit of EEW to the railway is to prevent derailments by stopping trains before the arrival of shaking, the lead time for warnings is usually not long enough to significantly reduce a train’s speed. In reality, EEW’s greatest impact is preventing derailment by alerting trains to slow down or stop before they encounter damaged track. We perform cost-benefit analyses of different decision-making strategies for several EEW system designs to find an optimal alerting strategy. On-site EEW provides better outcomes than source-parameter-based EEW when warning at a threshold of 120 gal (the level of shaking at which damage might occur) regardless of false alarm tolerance. A source-parameter-based EEW system with a lower alerting threshold (e.g., 40 gal) can reduce the exposure to potentially damaged track compared to an on-site system alerting at 120 gal, but a lower alerting threshold comes at the cost of additional precautionary system stops. The optimal EEW approach for rail systems depends strongly on the ratio of the cost of stopping the system unnecessarily to the potential loss from traversing damaged tracks.

California

Evaluation of remote mapping techniques for earthquake-triggered landslide inventories in an urban subarctic environment: A case study of the 2018 Anchorage, Alaska Earthquake

Earthquake-induced landslide inventories can be generated using field observations but doing so can be challenging if the affected landscape is large or inaccessible after an earthquake. Remote sensing data can be used to help overcome these limitations. The effectiveness of remotely sensed data to produce landslide inventories, however, is dependent on a variety of factors, such as the extent of coverage, timing, and data quality, as well as environmental factors such as atmospheric interference (e.g., clouds, water vapor) or snow and vegetation cover. With these challenges in mind, we use a combination of field observations and remote sensing data from multispectral, light detection and ranging (lidar), and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) sensors to produce a ground failure inventory for the urban areas affected by the 2018 magnitude (M w ) 7.1 Anchorage, Alaska earthquake. The earthquake occurred during late November at high latitude (∼61°N), and the lack of sunlight, persistent cloud cover, and snow cover that occurred after the earthquake made remote mapping challenging for this event. Despite these challenges, 43 landslides were manually mapped and classified using a combination of the datasets mentioned previously. Using this manually compiled inventory, we investigate the individual performance and reliability of three remote sensing techniques in this environment not typically hospitable to remotely sensed mapping. We found that differencing pre- and post-event normalized difference vegetation index maps and lidar worked best for identifying soil slumps and rapid soil flows, but not as well for small soil slides, soil block slides and rock falls. The SAR-based methods did not work well for identifying any landslide types because of high noise levels likely related to snow. Some landslides, especially those that resulted in minor surface displacement, were identifiable only from the field observations. This work highlights the importance of the rapid collection of field observations and provides guidance for future mappers on which techniques, or combination of techniques, will be most effective at remotely mapping landslides in a subarctic and urban environment.

Alaska

Contributed reports of widely felt earthquakes in California, United States: If they felt it, did they report it?

In a recent study, Hough and Martin (2021) considered the extent to which socioeconomic factors influence the numbers and distribution of contributed reports available to characterize the effects of both historical and recent large earthquakes. In this study I explore the question further, focusing on analysis of widely felt earthquakes near major population centers in northern and southern California since 2002. For most of these earthquakes there is a correlation between average household income in a postal ZIP code and the population-normalized rate of responses to the DYFI system. As past studies have demonstrated, there is also a strong correlation between DYFI participation and the severity of shaking. This first-order correlation can obscure correlations with other factors that influence participation. Focusing on five earthquakes between 2011 and 2021 that generated especially uniform shaking across the greater Los Angeles, California, region, response rate varies by two orders of magnitude across the region, with a clear correlation with demographics, and consistent spatial patterns in response rate for earthquakes 10 years apart. While there is no evidence that uneven DYFI participation in California impacts significantly the reliability of intensity data collected, the results reveal that DYFI participation is significantly higher in affluent parts of southern California compared to economically disadvantaged areas.

California

Lava fountain jet noise during the 2018 eruption of fissure 8 of Kīlauea volcano

Real-time monitoring is crucial to assess hazards and mitigate risks of sustained volcanic eruptions that last hours to months or more. Sustained eruptions have been shown to produce a low frequency (infrasonic) form of jet noise. We analyze the lava fountaining at fissure 8 during the 2018 Lower East Rift Zone eruption of Kīlauea volcano, Hawaii, and connect changes in fountain properties with recorded infrasound signals from an array about 500 m from the fountain using jet noise scaling laws and visual imagery. Video footage from the eruption reveals a change in lava fountain dynamics from a tall, distinct fountain at the beginning of June to a low fountain with a turbulent, out-pouring lava pond surrounded by a tephra cone by mid-June. During mid-June, the sound pressure level reaches a maximum, and peak frequency drops. We develop a model that uses jet noise scaling relationships to estimate changes in volcanic jet diameter and jet velocity from infrasound sound pressure levels and peak frequencies. The results of this model indicate a decrease in velocity in mid-June which coincides with the decrease in fountain height. Furthermore, the model results suggest an increase in jet diameter, which can be explained by the larger width of the fountain that resembles a turbulent lava pond compared to the distinct fountain at the beginning of June. The agreement between the infrasound-derived and visually observed changes in fountain dynamics suggests that jet noise scaling relationships can be used to monitor lava fountain dynamics using infrasound recordings.

Hawaii

Using open-science workflow tools to produce SCEC CyberShake physics-based probabilistic seismic hazard models

The Statewide (formerly Southern) California Earthquake Center (SCEC) conducts multidisciplinary earthquake system science research that aims to develop predictive models of earthquake processes, and to produce accurate seismic hazard information that can improve societal preparedness and resiliency to earthquake hazards. As part of this program, SCEC has developed the CyberShake platform, which calculates physics-based probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) models for regions with high-quality seismic velocity and fault models. The CyberShake platform implements a sophisticated computational workflow that includes over 15 individual codes written by 6 developers. These codes are heterogeneous, ranging from short-running high-throughput serial CPU codes to large, long-running, parallel GPU codes. Additionally, CyberShake simulation campaigns are computationally extensive, typically producing tens of terabytes of meaningful scientific data and metadata over several months of around-the-clock execution on leadership-class supercomputers. To meet the needs of the CyberShake platform, we have developed an extreme-scale workflow stack, including the Pegasus Workflow Management System, HTCondor, Globus, and custom tools. We present this workflow software stack and identify how the CyberShake platform and supporting tools enable us to meet a variety of challenges that come with large-scale simulations, such as automated remote job submission, data management, and verification and validation. This platform enabled us to perform our most recent simulation campaign, CyberShake Study 22.12, from December 2022 to April 2023. During this time, our workflow tools executed approximately 32,000 jobs, and used up to 73% of the Summit system at Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility. Our workflow tools managed about 2.5 PB of total temporary and output data, and automatically staged 19 million output files totaling 74 TB back to archival storage on the University of Southern California's Center for Advanced Research Computing systems, including file-based relational data and large binary files to efficiently store millions of simulated seismograms. CyberShake extreme-scale workflows have generated simulation-based probabilistic seismic hazard models that are being used by seismological, engineering, and governmental communities.

Frontiers Earth Science Journal

An integrated approach for physical, economic, and demographic evaluation of coastal flood hazard adaptation in Santa Monica Bay, California

The increased risk of coastal flooding associated with climate-change driven sea level rise threatens to displace communities and cause substantial damage to infrastructure. Site-specific adaptation planning is necessary to mitigate the negative impacts of flooding on coastal residents and the built environment. Cost-benefit analyses used to evaluate coastal adaption strategies have traditionally focused on economic considerations, often overlooking potential demographic impacts that can directly influence vulnerability in coastal communities. Here, we present a transferable framework that couples hydrodynamic modeling of flooding driven by sea level rise and storm scenarios with site-specific building stock and census block-level demographic data. We assess the efficacy of multiple coastal adaptation strategies at reducing flooding, economic damages, and impacts to the local population. We apply this framework to evaluate a range of engineered, nature-based, and hybrid adaptation strategies for a portion of Santa Monica Bay, California. Overall, we find that dual approaches that provide protection along beaches using dunes or seawalls and along inlets using sluice gates perform best at reducing or eliminating flooding, damages, and population impacts. Adaptation strategies that include a sluice gate and partial or no protection along the beach are effective at reducing flooding around inlets but can exacerbate flooding elsewhere, leading to unintended impacts on residents. Our results also indicate trade-offs between economic and social risk-reduction priorities. The proposed framework allows for a comprehensive evaluation of coastal protection strategies across multiple objectives. Understanding how coastal adaptation strategies affect hydrodynamic, economic, and social factors at a local scale can enable more effective and equitable planning approaches.

California

Viral pathogen detection in U.S. game-farm mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) flags spillover risk to wild birds

The threat posed by emerging infectious diseases is a major concern for global public health, animal health and food security, and the role of birds in transmission is increasingly under scrutiny. Each year, millions of mass-reared game-farm birds are released into the wild, presenting a unique and a poorly understood risk to wild and susceptible bird populations, and to human health. In particular, the shedding of enteric pathogens through excrement into bodies of water at shared migratory stop-over sites, and breeding and wintering grounds, could facilitate multi-species long-distance pathogen dispersal and infection of high numbers of naive endemic birds annually. The Mallard ( Anas platyrhynchos ) is the most abundant of all duck species, migratory across much of its range, and an important game species for pen-rearing and release. Major recent population declines along the US Atlantic coast has been attributed to game-farm and wild mallard interbreeding and the introduction maladaptive traits into wild populations. However, pathogen transmission and zoonosis among game-farms Mallard may also impact these populations, as well as wildlife and human health. Here, we screened 16 game-farm Mallard from Wisconsin, United States, for enteric viral pathogens using metatranscriptomic data. Four families of viral pathogens were identified – Picobirnaviridae (Genogroup I), Caliciviridae (Duck Nacovirus ), Picornaviridae (Duck Aalivirus ) and Sedoreoviridae (Duck Rotavirus G). To our knowledge, this is the first report of Aalivirus in the Americas, and the first report of Calicivirus outside domestic chicken and turkey flocks in the United States. Our findings highlight the risk of viral pathogen spillover from peri-domestically reared game birds to naive wild bird populations.

Frontiers Earth Science Journal

Two-million-year eruptive history of Laguna del Maule volcanic field

The Laguna del Maule (LdM) volcanic field, which surrounds the 54-km 2 lake of that name, covers ∼500 km 2 of mountainous glaciated terrain with Quaternary lavas and tuffs that extend 40 km westward from the Argentine frontier and 30 km north-south from the Río Campanario to Laguna Fea. Complementing recent investigations of postglacial volcanism and the ongoing geophysical unrest around the lake, we here review the longer eruptive history that spanned the entire Quaternary.

Journal of South American Earth Sciences

Facing our freshwater crisis via fluid and agile communication: A grand challenge

Earth has been labeled the blue planet because of its abundance of water that covers most of its surface, but the majority is salt water in our oceans. Oceans account for ~352 million km 2 or 69% of the planet's surface, land for 150 million km 2 or 29%, and fresh water for 9 million km 2 or 2% ( Shiklomanov, 2000 ). Most of the fresh water is locked away in glaciers and ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica, with less than a third accessible to biota ( Shiklomanov, 2000 ). This miniscule fraction of fresh water is our most precious natural resource, the foundation for life in terrestrial environments, and humanity depends on it, but the resource faces enormous threats. My aim in this brief editorial is to define the freshwater resource, succinctly summarize the major threats it faces, and underscore recent calls for conservation. My review is cursory, but I call attention to various recent exhaustive reviews. I end with my views on how journals can help advance global freshwater conservation efforts.

Frontiers in Freshwater Science

Sedimentological and geochemical characterization of lacustrine deposits of the Babouri-Figuil basin, northern Cameroon: Implications for source rocks distribution and petroleum exploration

The West and Central African Rift System (WCARS) refers to the series of Cretaceous rift basins where commercial hydrocarbon accumulations have been discovered. Some of the WCARS frontier basins are currently being investigated to increase our understanding of these basins in light of new commercial discoveries. The present study was performed in the Babouri-Figuil Basin (BFB), which is genetically related to the WCARS and constitutes an area of interest in terms of petroleum prospecting, where the distribution of petroleum source rocks and potential targets for petroleum exploration across the entire basin is poorly understood. For the current study, an integrated facies analysis along with organic and inorganic geochemical techniques were applied to the basin's Cretaceous deposits with the aim of reconstructing the paleodepositional environment, assessing factors that triggered the input of organic matter, and providing a spatial overview of the organic matter accumulation in the basin based on outcrop samples. An alluvial fan-lacustrine-braided river system is inferred from the facies analysis of the stratigraphic sequence consisting of conglomerate, sandstone, siltstone, limestone, marlstone, and claystone. Bulk analysis of organic matter reveals that black shale and massive claystone are the main prospective petroleum source rocks in the basin. Inorganic geochemical analyses reveal the influence of anoxic conditions, moderate to high primary productivity, and low terrigenous inputs in organic matter enrichment. The formations rich in organic matter are predominantly concentrated in the western and eastern parts of the basin which may represent areas with depressions, characterized by high accommodation space. In terms of the regional context of the WCARS rift basins, typical hydrocarbon exploration in the BFB may target basal-conglomerate, sandstone beds situated directly above or/and interbedded with the Lower Cretaceous source rocks, and the Upper Cretaceous sandstone beds. Basement rocks (granite, granodiorite, and gneisses) and oil shale deposits may represent potential unconventional hydrocarbon exploration. The current integrated study provides an insight that should guide future hydrocarbon exploration campaigns in the basin.

Babouri-Figuil basin