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Data resources for NGA-subduction project

A relational database was developed over a five-year period to support ground motion model (GMM) development for the Next Generation Attenuation-Subduction (NGA-Sub) project. The relational database has components that interact according to a database schema, including a source and path component used to describe attributes of seismic sources in global subduction regions and to compute source-to-site distances, a site component that describes attributes of sites where recordings have been made, and a ground motion component. The source component of the database has information for 1880 earthquakes, mainly from the following regions: the Pacific Northwest region of North America, Alaska and the Aleutian Islands, Japan, Taiwan, New Zealand, South America, Central America, and Mexico. Of the 1880 earthquakes, 88 have finite fault models (FFMs) from the literature that were systematically reviewed, distilled to one more rectangular shapes, and trimmed according to procedures based on percentage of total slip. For earthquakes without FFMs, a simulation routine is used to represent finite fault effects required for distance calculations. This simulation routine was adjusted and made more uniform in its application than in prior NGA projects. All earthquakes are classified as interface, intraslab, shallow crustal, or outer rise, using uniform protocols developed for this project. All earthquakes are also assigned class designations adapted from a prior NGA project for active regions, that allows foreshock, mainshock, and aftershock events to be distinguished. The site component of the database is described in a companion paper (Ahdi et al. 2020 [1]). The ground motion component of the database consists of median – and maximum – horizontal component peak parameters (peak ground acceleration, PGA and peak ground velocity, PGV) and pseudo-spectral accelerations (PSa) at 111 oscillator periods and 11 damping ratios. Response spectra were also computed for the vertical component. Fourier amplitude spectra (FAS) and duration metrics were also computed. The ground motion recordings were obtained from collaborating organizations world-wide as uncorrected (Vol 1) digital recordings, that were corrected (componentspecific low – and high – pass filters and baseline correction, as needed) following Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center (PEER)/NGA protocols. The relational database operates on each of these (and other) database components to dynamically draw relevant parameters into a single file, known as a flatfile, that is used by researchers engaged in GMM development. The flatfiles used in model development are being published with the NGA-Sub GMMs as products of the NGA-Sub project.

Extramural-Authored Publication Paper

Acute and chronic toxicity of nickel and zinc to a laboratory cultured mayfly (Neocloeon triangulifer) in aqueous but fed exposures

Aquatic insects are poorly represented in water quality criteria, and previous studies have suggested a lack of sensitivity in acute toxicity tests despite observational studies demonstrating the contrary. Our objectives were to determine the toxicity of nickel (Ni) and zinc (Zn) to the mayfly Neocloeon triangulifer in fed acute (96-h) and chronic exposures to estimate aqueous effect concentrations while acknowledging the importance of dietary exposure for these insects. For the chronic tests, we conducted preliminary full–life cycle (~25–30 d) and subchronic (14 d) exposures to compare the relative sensitivity of the 2 test durations under similar conditions (i.e., feeding rates). Observing similar sensitivity, we settled on 14 d as the definitive test duration. Furthermore, we conducted experiments to determine how much food could be added to a given volume of water while minimally impacting dissolved metal recovery; a ratio of food dry mass to water volume (<0.005) achieved this. In the 14-d tests, we obtained a median lethal concentration and most sensitive chronic endpoint of 147 and 23 µg/L dissolved Ni (acute to chronic ratio [ACR] = 6.4), respectively, and 81 (mean value) and 10 µg/L dissolved Zn (ACR = 8.1), respectively. The acute values are orders of magnitude lower than previously published values for mayflies, probably most importantly due to the presence of dietary exposure but also potentially with some influence of organism age and test temperature.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry

Estimating groundwater pumping for irrigation: A method comparison

Effective groundwater management is critical to future environmental, ecological, and social sustainability and requires accurate estimates of groundwater withdrawals. Unfortunately, these estimates are not readily available in most areas due to physical, regulatory, and social challenges. Here, we compare four different approaches for estimating groundwater withdrawals for agricultural irrigation. We apply these methods in a groundwater-irrigated region in the state of Kansas, USA, where high-quality groundwater withdrawal data are available for evaluation. The four methods represent a broad spectrum of approaches: (1) the hydrologically-based Water Table Fluctuation method (WTFM); (2) the demand-based SALUS crop model; (3) estimates based on satellite-derived evapotranspiration (ET) data from OpenET; and (4) a landscape hydrology model which integrates hydrologic- and demand-based approaches. The applicability of each approach varies based on data availability, spatial and temporal resolution, and accuracy of predictions. In general, our results indicate that all approaches reasonably estimate groundwater withdrawals in our region, however, the type and amount of data required for accurate estimates and the computational requirements vary among approaches. For example, WTFM requires accurate groundwater levels, specific yield, and recharge data, whereas the SALUS crop model requires adequate information about crop type, land use, and weather. This variability highlights the difficulty in identifying what data, and how much, are necessary for a reasonable groundwater withdrawal estimate, and suggests that data availability should drive the choice of approach. Overall, our findings will help practitioners evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches and select the appropriate approach for their application.

Kansas

Exploring probabilistic seismic risk assessment to monitor the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction

The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) calls upon the systematic collection of damage and loss data between 2015 and 2030 to monitor a number of disaster indicators. These indicators include the number of deaths, number of injured people, number of people affected by disasters, and direct economic losses. These results can then be compared with previous periods in order to track progress in disaster risk reduction. However, there is an important limitation with such an approach when measuring disaster risk due to earthquakes. Even in countries with significant seismic risk, it is plausible to witness a 15 year period without any destructive earthquakes (e.g., Nicaragua, Haiti, Myanmar). This situation can lead to the perception that efficient measures are being undertaken to reduce the impact of earthquakes, when in reality the trend could be the opposite. An alternative approach to monitor the SFDRR indicators is through probabilistic risk models. These models allow the estimation of the indicators of the SFDRR probabilistically (e.g., average annual economic losses, average annual fatalities), which do not depend on the occurrence of destructive events during the period of interest. Although seismic activity can be assumed as stationary over several decades, in order to evaluate the evolution of the SFDRR over these time frames, the consistent updating of the risk model has to be considered in order to reflect the evolution and change of the built environment and its vulnerability, such as the introduction of new design regulations or the implementation of retrofitting campaigns. A comparison of the various risk indicators throughout time allows assessing whether the potential losses caused by earthquakes are decreasing or increasing, as well as where risk reduction measures should be prioritized. This study discusses how the global seismic risk model released in December 2018 by the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation and its partners can be explored to monitor the SFDRR, and more importantly, how it can be modified to assess which measures should be endorsed to respect the 2030 targets.

Extramural-Authored Publication Paper