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A Comparison of Turbidity-Based and Streamflow-Based Estimates of Suspended-Sediment Concentrations in Three Chesapeake Bay Tributaries

Fluvial transport of sediment into the Chesapeake Bay estuary is a persistent water-quality issue with major implications for the overall health of the bay ecosystem. Accurately and precisely estimating the suspended-sediment concentrations (SSC) and loads that are delivered to the bay, however, remains challenging. Although manual sampling of SSC produces an accurate series of point-in-time measurements, robust extrapolation to unmeasured periods (especially highflow periods) has proven to be difficult. Sediment concentrations typically have been estimated using regression relations between individual SSC values and associated streamflow values; however, suspended-sediment transport during storm events is extremely variable, and it is often difficult to relate a unique SSC to a given streamflow. With this limitation for estimating SSC, innovative approaches for generating detailed records of suspended-sediment transport are needed. One effective method for improved suspended-sediment determination involves the continuous monitoring of turbidity as a surrogate for SSC. Turbidity measurements are theoretically well correlated to SSC because turbidity represents a measure of water clarity that is directly influenced by suspended sediments; thus, turbidity-based estimation models typically are effective tools for generating SSC data. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Chesapeake Bay Program and Virginia Department of Environmental Quality, initiated continuous turbidity monitoring on three major tributaries of the bay - the James, Rappahannock, and North Fork Shenandoah Rivers - to evaluate the use of turbidity as a sediment surrogate in rivers that deliver sediment to the bay. Results of this surrogate approach were compared to the traditionally applied streamflow-based approach for estimating SSC. Additionally, evaluation and comparison of these two approaches were conducted for nutrient estimations. Results demonstrate that the application of turbidity-based estimation models provides an improved method for generating a continuous record of SSC, relative to the classical approach that uses streamflow as a surrogate for SSC. Turbidity-based estimates of SSC were found to be more accurate and precise than SSC estimates from streamflow-based approaches. The turbidity-based SSC estimation models explained 92 to 98 percent of the variability in SSC, while streamflow-based models explained 74 to 88 percent of the variability in SSC. Furthermore, the mean absolute error of turbidity-based SSC estimates was 50 to 87 percent less than the corresponding values from the streamflow-based models. Statistically significant differences were detected between the distributions of residual errors and estimates from the two approaches, indicating that the turbidity-based approach yields estimates of SSC with greater precision than the streamflow-based approach. Similar improvements were identified for turbidity-based estimates of total phosphorus, which is strongly related to turbidity because total phosphorus occurs predominantly in particulate form. Total nitrogen estimation models based on turbidity and streamflow generated estimates of similar quality, with the turbidity-based models providing slight improvements in the quality of estimations. This result is attributed to the understanding that nitrogen transport is dominated by dissolved forms that relate less directly to streamflow and turbidity. Improvements in concentration estimation resulted in improved estimates of load. Turbidity-based suspended-sediment loads estimated for the James River at Cartersville, VA, monitoring station exhibited tighter confidence interval bounds and a coefficient of variation of 12 percent, compared with a coefficient of variation of 38 percent for the streamflow-based load.

Scientific Investigations Report

Development of land segmentation, stream-reach network, and watersheds in support of hydrological simulation program: Fortran (HSPF) modeling, Chesapeake Bay watershed, and adjacent parts of Maryland, Delaware, and Virginia

The U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Chesapeake Bay Program Office, Interstate Commission on the Potomac River Basin, Maryland Department of the Environment, Virginia Department of Conservation and Recreation, Virginia Department of Environmental Quality, and the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science are collaborating on the Chesapeake Bay Regional Watershed Model, using Hydrological Simulation Program - FORTRAN to simulate streamflow and concentrations and loads of nutrients and sediment to Chesapeake Bay. The model will be used to provide information for resource managers. In order to establish a framework for model simulation, digital spatial datasets were created defining the discretization of the model region (including the Chesapeake Bay watershed, as well as the adjacent parts of Maryland, Delaware, and Virginia outside the watershed) into land segments, a stream-reach network, and associated watersheds. Land segmentation was based on county boundaries represented by a 1:100,000-scale digital dataset. Fifty of the 254 counties and incorporated cities in the model region were divided on the basis of physiography and topography, producing a total of 309 land segments. The stream-reach network for the Chesapeake Bay watershed part of the model region was based on the U.S. Geological Survey Chesapeake Bay SPARROW (SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes) model stream-reach network. Because that network was created only for the Chesapeake Bay watershed, the rest of the model region uses a 1:500,000-scale stream-reach network. Streams with mean annual streamflow of less than 100 cubic feet per second were excluded based on attributes from the dataset. Additional changes were made to enhance the data and to allow for inclusion of stream reaches with monitoring data that were not part of the original network. Thirty-meter-resolution Digital Elevation Model data were used to delineate watersheds for each stream reach. State watershed boundaries replaced the Digital Elevation Model-derived watersheds where coincident. After a number of corrections, the watersheds were coded to indicate major and minor basin, mean annual streamflow, and each watershed's unique identifier as well as that of the downstream watershed. Land segments and watersheds were intersected to create land-watershed segments for the model.

Delaware, Maryland, Virginia

Data synthesis for environmental management: A case study of Chesapeake Bay

Synthesizing large, complex data sets to inform resource managers towards effective environmental stewardship is a universal challenge. In Chesapeake Bay, a well-studied and intensively monitored estuary in North America, the challenge of synthesizing data on water quality and land use as factors related to a key habitat, submerged aquatic vegetation, was tackled by a team of scientists and resource managers operating at multiple levels of governance (state, federal). The synthesis effort took place over a two-year period (2016–2018), and the results were communicated widely to a) scientists via peer review publications and conference presentations; b) resource managers via web materials and workshop presentations; and c) the public through newspaper articles, radio interviews, and podcasts. The synthesis effort was initiated by resource managers at the United States Environmental Protection Agencys’ Chesapeake Bay Program and 16 scientist participants were recruited from a diversity of organizations. Multiple short, immersive workshops were conducted regularly to conceptualize the problem, followed by data analysis and interpretation that supported the preparation of the synthetic products that were communicated widely. Reflections on the process indicate that there are a variety of structural and functional requirements, as well as enabling conditions, that need to be considered to achieve successful outcomes from synthesis efforts.

Chesapeake Bay

Status and Assessment of Chesapeake Bay Wildlife Contamination

As an integral component of its priority setting process, the Chesapeake Bay Program`s Toxics Subcommittee has sought the expertise of Chesapeake Bay researchers and managers in developing a series of Chesapeake Bay toxics status and assessment papers. In the report, evidence for historical and current contaminant effects on key bird species, mammals, reptiles and amphibians which inhabit the Chesapeake Bay basin is examined. For each group of wildlife species, a general overview of effects caused by specific toxic substances is followed by detailed accounts of contaminant effects on selected species. Sponsored by Environmental Protection Agency, Annapolis, MD. Chesapeake Bay Program.

Environmental Protection Agency, Chesapeake Bay Pr

Hydrology and the effects of selected agricultural best-management practices in the Bald Eagle Creek watershed, York County, Pennsylvania, prior to and during nutrient management: Water-quality study for the Chesapeake Bay Program

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Susquehanna River Basin Commission and the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Resources, conducted a study as part of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Chesapeake Bay Program to determine the effects of nutrient management of surface-water quality by reducing animal units in a 0.43-square-mile agricultural watershed in York County. The study was conducted primarily from October 1985 through September 1990 prior to and during the implementation of nutrient-management practices designed to reduce nutrient and sediment discharges. Intermittent sampling continued until August 1991. The Bald Eagle Creek Basin is underlain by schist and quartzite. About 87 percent of the watershed is cropland and pasture. Nearly 33 percent of the cropland was planted in corn prior to nutrient management, whereas 22 percent of the cropland was planted in corn during the nutrient-management phase. The animal population was reduced by 49 percent during nutrient management. Average annual applications of nitrogen and phosphorus from manure to cropland were reduced by 3,940 pounds (39 percent) and 910 pounds (46 percent), respectively, during nutrient management. A total of 94,560 pounds of nitrogen (538 pounds per acre) and 26,400 pounds of phosphorus (150 pounds per acre) were applied to the cropland as commercial fertilizer and manure during the 5-year study. Core samples from the top 4 feet of soil were collected prior to and during nutrient management and analyzed from concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus. The average amount of nitrate nitrogen in the soil ranged from 36 to 135 pounds per acre, and soluble phosphorus ranged from 0.39 to 2.5 pounds per acre, prior to nutrient management. During nutrient management, nitrate nitrogen in the soil ranged from 21 to 291 pounds per acre and soluble phosphorus ranged from 0.73 to 1.7 pounds per acre. Precipitation was about 18 percent below normal and streamflow was about 35 percent below normal prior to nutrient management, whereas precipitation was 4 percent above normal and streamflow was 3 percent below normal during the first 2 years of nutrient management. Eighty-four percent of the 20.44 inches of streamflow was base flow prior to nutrient management and 54 percent of the 31.14 inches of streamflow was base flow during the first 2 years of the nutrient-management phase. About 31 percent of the measured precipitation during the first 4 years of the study was discharged as surface water; the remaining 69 percent was removed as evapotranspiration or remained in ground-water storage. Median concentrations of total nitrogen and dissolved nitrate plus nitrite in base flow increased from 4.9 and 4.1 milligrams per liter as nitrogen, respectively, prior to nutrient management to 5.8 and 5.0 milligrams per liter, respectively, during nutrient management. Median concentrations of ammonia nitrogen and organic nitrogen did not change significantly in base flow. Median concentrations of total and dissolved phosphorus in base flow did not change significantly and were 0.05 and 0.03 milligrams per liter as phosphorus, respectively, prior to the management phase, and 0.05 and 0.04 milligrams per liter, respectively, during the management phase.

Pennsylvania

Development of relations of stream stage to channel geometry and discharge for stream segments simulated with Hydrologic Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF), Chesapeake Bay Watershed and adjacent parts of Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP), Interstate Commission for the Potomac River Basin (ICPRB), Maryland Department of the Environment (MDE), Virginia Department of Conservation and Recreation (VADCR), and University of Maryland (UMD) are collaborating to improve the resolution of the Chesapeake Bay Regional Watershed Model (CBRWM). This watershed model uses the Hydrologic Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) to simulate the fate and transport of nutrients and sediment throughout the Chesapeake Bay watershed and extended areas of Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware. Information from the CBRWM is used by the CBP and other watershed managers to assess the effectiveness of water-quality improvement efforts as well as guide future management activities. A critical step in the improvement of the CBRWM framework was the development of an HSPF function table (FTABLE) for each represented stream channel. The FTABLE is used to relate stage (water depth) in a particular stream channel to associated channel surface area, channel volume, and discharge (streamflow). The primary tool used to generate an FTABLE for each stream channel is the XSECT program, a computer program that requires nine input variables used to represent channel morphology. These input variables are reach length, upstream and downstream elevation, channel bottom width, channel bankfull width, channel bankfull stage, slope of the floodplain, and Manning's roughness coefficient for the channel and floodplain. For the purpose of this study, the nine input variables were grouped into three categories: channel geometry, Manning's roughness coefficient, and channel and floodplain slope. Values of channel geometry for every stream segment represented in CBRWM were obtained by first developing regional regression models that relate basin drainage area to observed values of bankfull width, bankfull depth, and bottom width at each of the 290 USGS streamflow-gaging stations included in the areal extent of the model. These regression models were developed on the basis of data from stations in four physiographic provinces (Appalachian Plateaus, Valley and Ridge, Piedmont, and Coastal Plain) and were used to predict channel geometry for all 738 stream segments in the modeled area from associated basin drainage area. Manning's roughness coefficient for the channel and floodplain was represented in the XSECT program in two forms. First, all available field-estimated values of roughness were compiled for gaging stations in each physiographic province. The median of field-estimated values of channel and floodplain roughness for each physiographic province was applied to all respective stream segments. The second representation of Manning's roughness coefficient was to allow roughness to vary with channel depth. Roughness was estimated at each gaging station for each 1-foot depth interval. Median values of roughness were calculated for each 1-foot depth interval for all stations in each physiographic province. Channel and floodplain slope were determined for every stream segment in CBRWM using the USGS National Elevation Dataset. Function tables were generated by the XSECT program using values of channel geometry, channel and floodplain roughness, and channel and floodplain slope. The FTABLEs for each of the 290 USGS streamflow-gaging stations were evaluated by comparing observed discharge to the XSECT-derived discharge. Function table stream discharge derived using depth-varying roughness was found to be more representative of and statistically indistinguishable from values of observed stream discharge. Additionally, results of regression analysis showed that XSECT-derived discharge accounted for approximately 90 percent of the variability associated with observed discharge in each of the four physiographic provinces. The results of this study indicate that the methodology developed to generate FTABLEs for every s

Chesapeake Bay Watershed

Web-based decision support and visualization tools for water quality management in the Chesapeake Bay watershed

Federal, State, and local water quality managers charged with restoring the Chesapeake Bay ecosystem require tools to maximize the impact of their limited resources. To address this need, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Environmental Protection Agency's Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP) are developing a suite of Web-based tools called the Chesapeake Online Assessment Support Toolkit (COAST). The goal of COAST is to help CBP partners identify geographic areas where restoration activities would have the greatest effect, select the appropriate management strategies, and improve coordination and prioritization among partners. As part of the COAST suite of tools focused on environmental restoration, a water quality management visualization component called the Nutrient Yields Mapper (NYM) tool is being developed by USGS. The NYM tool is a web application that uses watershed yield estimates from USGS SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed (SPARROW) attributes model (Schwarz et al., 2006) [6] to allow water quality managers to identify important sources of nitrogen and phosphorous within the Chesapeake Bay watershed. The NYM tool utilizes new open source technologies that have become popular in geospatial web development, including components such as OpenLayers and GeoServer. This paper presents examples of water quality data analysis based on nutrient type, source, yield, and area of interest using the NYM tool for the Chesapeake Bay watershed. In addition, we describe examples of map-based techniques for identifying high and low nutrient yield areas; web map engines; and data visualization and data management techniques.

Conference Paper

Hydrology and the hypothetical effects of reducing nutrient applications on water quality in the Bald Eagle Creek Headwaters, southeastern Pennsylvania prior to implementation of agricultural best-management practices

The report characterizes a 0.43-square-mile agricultural watershed in York County, underlain by albite-chlorite and oligoclase-mica schist in the Lower Susquehanna River basin, that is being studied as part of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Chesapeake Bay Program. The water quality of Bald Eagle Creek was studied from October 1985 through September 1987 prior to the implementation of Best-Management Practices to reduce nutrient and sediment discharge into Muddy Creek, a tributary to the Chesapeake Bay. About 88 percent of the watershed is cropland and pasture, and nearly 33 percent of the cropland is used for corn. The animal population is entirely dairy cattle. About 85,640 pounds of nitrogen (460 pounds per acre) and 21,800 pounds of phosphorus (117 pounds per acre) were applied to fields; 52 percent of the nitrogen and 69 percent of the phosphorus was from commercial fertilizer. Prior to fertilization, nitrate nitrogen in the soil ranged from 36 to 136 pounds per acre and phosphorus ranged from 0.89 to 5.7 pounds per acre in the top 4 feet of soil. Precipitation was about 18 percent below normal and streamflow about 35 percent below normal during the 2-year study. Eighty-four percent of the 20.44 inches of runoff was base flow. Median concentrations of total nitrogen and dissolved phosphorous in base flow were 0.05 and 0.04 milligrams per liter as phosphorus, respectively. Concentrations of dissolved nitrate in base flow increased following wet periods after crops were harvested and manure was applied. During the growing season, concentrations decreased similarly to those observed in carbonate-rock areas as nutrient uptake and evapotranspiration by corn increased. About 4,550 pounds of suspended sediment, 5,250 pounds of nitrogen, and 66.6 pounds of phosphorus discharged in base flow during the 2-year period. The suspended sediment load was about 232,000 pounds in stormflow from 26 storms that contributed 51 percent of the total stormflow. The nitrogen load was about 651 pounds and the phosphorus load was about 74 pounds in stormflow from 16 storms that contributed 28 percent of the total stormflow. It is estimated that concentrations of total nitrogen and phosphorus in base flow need to be reduced by 12 and 48 percent, respectively, to detect changes during the nutrient-management phase. Likewise, loads to total nitrogen and phosphorus in base flow need to be reduced by 62 and 57 percent.

Pennsylvania

Effects of agricultural best-management practices on the Brush Run Creek headwaters, Adams County, Pennsylvania, prior to and during nutrient management

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Susquehanna River Basin Commission and the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Resources, investigated the effects of agricultural best-management practices on surface-water quality as part of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Chesapeake Bay Program. This report characterizes a 0.63-square- mile agricultural watershed underlain by shale, mudstone, and red arkosic sandstone in the Lower Susquehanna River Basin. The water quality of the Brush Run Creek site was studied from October 1985 through September 1991, prior to and during the implementation of nutrient management designed to reduce sediment and nutrient discharges into Conewago Creek, a tributary to the Chesapeake Bay. The original study area was 0.38 square mile and included an area immediately upstream from a manure lagoon. The study area was increased to 0.63 square mile in the fall of 1987 after an extensive tile-drain network was discovered upstream and downstream from the established streamflow gage, and the farm owner made plans to spray irrigate manure to the downstream fields. Land use for about 64 percent of the 0.63 square mile watershed is cropland, 14 percent is pasture, 7 percent is forest, and the remaining 15 percent is yards, buildings, water, or gardens. About 73 percent of the cropland was used to produce corn during the study. The average annual animal population consisted of 57,000 chickens, 1,530 hogs, and 15 sheep during the study. About 59,340 pounds of nitrogen and 13,710 pounds of phosphorus were applied as manure and commercial fertilizer to fields within the subbasin during the 3-year period prior to implementation of nutrient management. During nutrient management, about 14 percent less nitrogen and 57 percent less phosphorus were applied as commercial and manure fertilizer. Precipitation totaled 209 inches, or 13 percent less than the long-term normal, during the 6-year study. Concentrations of total ammonia in precipitation were as high as 2.7 mg/L (milligrams per liter); in dry deposition the concentrations were as high as 5.4 mg/L, probably because of the ammonia that had volatilized from the manure-storage lagoon. Nitrate nitrogen in the upper 4 feet of the soil ranged from 17 to 452 pounds per acre and soluble phosphorus content ranged from 0.29 to 65 pounds per acre. The maximum concentration of total nitrogen was 2,400 mg/L on September 10, 1986, in discharge from the tile drain near the streamflow gage. Median concentrations of total nitrogen and dissolved nitrite plus nitrate in base flow at the water-quality gage were 14 mg/L and 4.4 mg/L, respectively; prior to nutrient management and during nutrient management, median concentrations were 14 mg/L and 6.2 mg/L, respectively. Significant reductions in total phosphorus and suspended-sediment concentrations occurred at the water-quality gage. The maximum concentrations of total phosphorus (160 mg/L) and suspended sediment (3,530 mg/L) were measured at a tile line above the water-quality gage. Concentrations of total nitrogen, dissolved ammonia, and total phosphorus in base flow increased during dry periods when discharges from the tile drain were not diluted. During nutrient management, only base-flow loads of suspended sediment increased. Total streamflow was about 121.8 inches. About 81 percent was storm runoff. Loads of total nitrogen, total phosphorus in stormflow, and suspended sediment increased 14, 44, and 41 percent during nutrient management, respectively. A load of about 787,780 pounds of sediment, 22,418 pounds of nitrogen, and 5,479 pounds of phosphorus was measured during 214 sampled stormflow days that represented 84 percent of the stormflow. About 812,924 pounds of sediment, 38,421 pounds of nitrogen, and 6,377 pounds of phosphorus were discharged during the 6-year study.

Pennsylvania

Deriving Chesapeake Bay Water Quality Standards

Achieving and maintaining the water quality conditions necessary to protect the aquatic living resources of the Chesapeake Bay and its tidal tributaries has required a foundation of quantifiable water quality criteria. Quantitative criteria serve as a critical basis for assessing the attainment of designated uses and measuring progress toward meeting water quality goals of the Chesapeake Bay Program partnership. In 1987, the Chesapeake Bay Program partnership committed to defining the water quality conditions necessary to protect aquatic living resources. Under section 303(c) of the Clean Water Act, States and authorized tribes have the primary responsibility for adopting water quality standards into law or regulation. The Chesapeake Bay Program partnership worked with U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to develop and publish a guidance framework of ambient water quality criteria with designated uses and assessment procedures for dissolved oxygen, water clarity, and chlorophyll a for Chesapeake Bay and its tidal tributaries in 2003. This article reviews the derivation of the water quality criteria, criteria assessment protocols, designated use boundaries, and their refinements published in six addendum documents since 2003 and successfully adopted into each jurisdiction's water quality standards used in developing the Chesapeake Bay Total Maximum Daily Load.

Chesapeake Bay

U.S. Geological Survey Chesapeake Bay Studies: Scientific Solutions for a Healthy Bay and Watershed

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the science agency for the Department of Interior (DOI), has the critical role of providing objective science to document and understand ecosystem change in the Chesapeake Bay and its watershed. The human population in the Bay watershed , which grew from 8.1 million in 1950 to almost 16 million in 2000, has resulted in degraded water quality, loss of habitat, and declines in fish and bird populations. USGS scientists are leaders in understanding cause and effect of human activities and natural changes on water quality and the health of the ecosystem. The USGS interacts with resource managers and policy makers to use the science to adapt approaches for implementation, and assess effectiveness of, management actions for ecosystem conservation, restoration, and sustainability. Since the mid-1980s, the USGS has been an active partner in the Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP) , a multi-agency partnership led by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, working to achieve the restoration goals set forth in the Chesapeake 2000 agreement . This agreement established over 100 restoration commitments to be addressed by 2010. In 2005, which was the mid-point of the agreement, there was growing concern at all levels of government and by the public that ecological conditions in the Bay and its watershed had not significantly improved. The slow rate of improvement, coupled with the projected impact of human-population increase in the Bay watershed (fig. 1) , implied that many desired ecological conditions will not be achieved by 2010. To address these challenges, the USGS wrote a new science plan for 2006-2011 , and is synthesizing key findings to highlight the accomplishments from science activities for 2000-2005.

Delaware, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, Virgin

Facilitating adaptive management in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed through the use of online decision support tools

The Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP) is attempting to more strategically implement management actions to improve the health of the Nation’s largest estuary. In 2007 the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) CBP office began a joint effort to develop a suite of Internetaccessible decision-support tools and to help meet the needs of CBP partners to improve water quality and habitat conditions in the Chesapeake Bay and its watersheds. An adaptive management framework is being used to provide a structured decision process for information and individual tools needed to implement and assess practices to improve the condition of the Chesapeake Bay ecosystem. The Chesapeake Online Adaptive Support Toolkit (COAST) is a collection of web-based analytical tools and information, organized in an adaptive management framework, intended to aid decisionmakers in protecting and restoring the integrity of the Bay ecosystem. The initial version of COAST is focused on water quality issues. During early and mid- 2008, initial ideas for COAST were shared and discussed with various CBP partners and other potential user groups. At these meetings, test cases were selected to help improve understanding of the types of information and analytical functionality that would be most useful for specific partners’ needs. These discussions added considerable knowledge about the nature of decisionmaking for Federal, State, local and nongovernmental partners. Version 1.0 of COAST, released in early winter of 2008, will be further reviewed to determine improvements needed to address implementation and assessment of water quality practices. Future versions of COAST may address other aspects of ecosystem restoration, including restoration of habitat and living resources and maintaining watershed health.

Conference Paper

Nutrient and suspended-sediment trends, loads, and yields and development of an indicator of streamwater quality at nontidal sites in the Chesapeake Bay watershed, 1985-2010

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) updates information on loads of, and trends in, nutrients and sediment annually to help the Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP) investigators assess progress toward improving water-quality conditions in the Chesapeake Bay and its watershed. CBP scientists and managers have worked since 1983 to improve water quality in the bay. In 2010, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) established a Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) for the Chesapeake Bay. The TMDL specifies nutrient and sediment load allocations that need to be achieved in the watershed to improve dissolved oxygen, water-clarity, and chlorophyll conditions in the bay. The USEPA, USGS, and state and local jurisdictions in the watershed operate a CBP nontidal water-quality monitoring network and associated database that are used to update load and trend information to help assess progress toward reducing nutrient and sediment inputs to the bay. Data collected from the CBP nontidal network were used to estimate loads and trends for two time periods: a long-term period (1985-2010) at 31 "primary" sites (with storm sampling) and a 10-year period (2001-10) at 33 primary sites and 16 "secondary" sites (without storm sampling). In addition, loads at 64 primary sites were estimated for the period 2006 to 2010. Results indicate improving flow-adjusted trends for nitrogen and phosphorus for 1985 to 2010 at most of the sites in the network. For nitrogen, 21 of the 31 sites showed downward (improving) trends, whereas 2 sites showed upward (degrading) trends, and 8 sites showed no trends. The results for phosphorus were similar: 22 sites showed improving trends, 4 sites showed degrading trends, and 5 sites indicated no trends. For sediment, no trend was found at 40 percent of the sites, with 10 sites showing improving trends and 8 sites showing degrading trends. The USGS, working with CBP partners, developed a new water-quality indicator that combines the results of the 10-year trend analysis with results from a greater number of sites (64 primary sites) where loads and yields of total nitrogen and phosphorus and sediment could be calculated. The new indicator shows fewer significant trends for the 10-year time period than for the long-term time period (1985-2010). For 2001-10, total nitrogen trends were downward (improving) at 14 sites and upward (degrading) at 2 sites; no trend was found at 17 sites. For total phosphorus, 12 sites showed improving trends, 4 sites showed degrading trends, and 17 sites showed no trend. For total sediment, most sites (21) did not exhibit a significant trend; 3 sites showed improving trends, and 10 sites showed degrading trends. Few significant trends were seen at the 16 secondary sites: improving trends for total nitrogen at 4 sites, improving trends for total phosphorus at 2 sites, and a degrading trend for sediment at 1 site. Total streamflow to the Chesapeake Bay was 20 percent higher in 2010 than in 2009 and is considered to be within the normal range of flow, whereas annual streamflow at 28 sites was greater in 2010 than in 2009. No trends in daily streamflow were detected at the 31 long-term sites. Combined loads for the farthest downstream nontidal monitoring sites (called "River Input Monitoring sites") increased 33 percent for total nitrogen, 120 percent for total phosphorus, and 330 percent for total sediment from 2009 to 2010. The large increase in phosphorus and sediment loads in 2010 was caused in large part by two large storm events that occurred during the spring in the Potomac River Basin. Yields (load per watershed area) of total nitrogen in the Chesapeake Bay watershed decreased from north to south (New York to Virginia). No spatial patterns were discernible for total phosphorus or sediment.

Delaware, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, Virgin

Spatial and temporal variation of stream chemistry associated with contrasting geology and land-use patterns in the Chesapeake Bay watershed—Summary of results from Smith Creek, Virginia; Upper Chester River, Maryland; Conewago Creek, Pennsylvania; and Difficult Run, Virginia, 2010–2013

Despite widespread and ongoing implementation of conservation practices throughout the Chesapeake Bay watershed, water quality continues to be degraded by excess sediment and nutrient inputs. While the Chesapeake Bay Program has developed and maintains a large-scale and long-term monitoring network to detect improvements in water quality throughout the watershed, fewer resources have been allocated for monitoring smaller watersheds, even though water-quality improvements that may result from the implementation of conservation practices are likely to be first detected at smaller watershed scales. In 2010, the U.S. Geological Survey partnered with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the U.S. Department of Agriculture to initiate water-quality monitoring in four selected small watersheds that were targeted for increased implementation of conservation practices. Smith Creek watershed is an agricultural watershed in the Shenandoah Valley of Virginia that is dominated by cattle and poultry production, and the Upper Chester River watershed is an agricultural watershed on the Eastern Shore of Maryland that is dominated by row-cropping activities. The Conewago Creek watershed is an agricultural watershed in southeastern Pennsylvania that is characterized by mixed agricultural activities. The fourth watershed, Difficult Run, is a suburban watershed in northern Virginia that is dominated by medium density residential development. The objective of this study was to investigate spatial and temporal variations in water chemistry and suspended sediment in these four relatively small watersheds that represent a range of land-use patterns and underlying geology to (1) characterize current water-quality conditions in these watersheds, and (2) identify the dominant sources, sinks, and transport processes in each watershed. The general study design involved two components. The first included intensive routine water-quality monitoring at an existing streamgage within each study area (including continuous water-quality monitoring as well as discrete water-quality sampling) to develop a detailed understanding of the temporal and hydrologic variability in stream chemistry and sediment transport in each watershed. The second component involved extensive water-quality monitoring at various sites throughout each watershed to develop a detailed understanding of spatial patterns. Both components were used to improve understanding of sources and transport processes affecting stream chemistry, including nutrients and suspended sediments, and their implications for detecting long-term trends related to best management practices. This report summarizes the results of monitoring that was performed from April 2010 through September 2013. Individual Small Watershed Summaries Summaries for each of the four small watersheds are presented below. Each watershed has a more descriptive and detailed section in the report, but these summaries may be particularly useful for some watershed managers and stakeholders desiring slightly less technical detail. Smith Creek Smith Creek is a 105.39-mi 2 watershed within the Shenandoah Valley that drains to the North Fork Shenandoah River. The long-term Smith Creek base-flow index is 72.3 percent, indicating that on average, approximately 72 percent of Smith Creek flow was base flow, which suggests that Smith Creek streamflow is dominated by groundwater discharge rather than stormwater runoff. A series of cluster and principal components analyses demonstrated that the majority of the variability in Smith Creek water quality could be attributed to hydrologic and seasonal variability. Statistically significant positive correlations with flow were observed for turbidity, suspended sediments, total nitrogen, ammonium, orthophosphate, iron, total phosphorus, and the ratio of calcium to magnesium. Statistically significant inverse correlations with flow were observed for specific conductance, magnesium, δ 15 N of nitrate, pH, bicarbonate, calcium, and δ 18 O of nitrate. Of particular note, flow and nitrate were not statistically significantly correlated, likely because of the relatively complex concentration-discharge relationship observed in continuous and discrete datasets. Statistically significant seasonal patterns were observed for numerous water-quality constituents: water temperature, turbidity, orthophosphate, total phosphorus, suspended-sediment concentration, and silica were higher during the warm season, but pH, dissolved oxygen, and sulfate were higher during the cool season. Surrogate regression models were developed to compute sediment and nutrient loads in Smith Creek using the continuous water-quality monitors. The mean Smith Creek in-stream sediment load was approximately 6,900 tons per year, with nearly 90 percent of the sediment load over the 3-year study period contributed during the eight largest storm events during that period. The Smith Creek total phosphorus load was approximately 21,000 pounds of phosphorus per year, with the majority of the load contributed during stormflow periods, although a substantial phosphorus load still occurs during base-flow conditions. The Smith Creek total nitrogen load was approximately 400,000 pounds per year, with total nitrogen accumulation less dominated by stormflow contributions (as was the case for sediment and total phosphorus) and strongly affected by base-flow export of nitrogen from the basin. Extensive water-quality monitoring throughout the Smith Creek watershed revealed how the complex geology and hydrology interacted to result in variable water chemistry. During relatively dry and low base-flow periods, much of the discharge in Smith Creek was contributed by a single dominant spring—Lacey Spring. During wetter base-flow periods, the flows in Smith Creek were largely generated by a mixture of headwater springs and forested mountain tributaries with very different geochemical composition. The headwater springs generally issued from limestone bedrock and were characterized as having relatively high nitrate, specific conductance, calcium, and magnesium, as well as relatively low concentrations of phosphorus, ammonium, iron, and manganese. The undeveloped, high-gradient, forested mountain sites were generally characterized by low ionic strength waters with low nutrient concentrations. Nitrate isotope data from the limestone springs generally were consistent with manure-derived nitrogen sources (such as cattle and poultry), although the possibility of other mixed sources cannot be excluded. Nitrate isotope data from the undeveloped, high-gradient forested mountain sites were more consistent with nitrogen from undisturbed soils, atmospheric deposition, or nitrogen fixation. Regardless of the nitrogen source, oxygen isotope data indicate that the nitrate was largely a result of nitrification. Land-use data indicate that manure sources of nitrogen dominated watershed nitrogen inputs. Phosphorus sources were less well studied. The presence of a single point-source discharge near the town of New Market contributed the majority of the phosphorus to Smith Creek under base-flow conditions, but nonpoint sources of phosphorus dominated the loading to Smith Creek during stormflow periods. Implementation of conservation practices increased in the Smith Creek watershed during the study period, and even though a broad range of practice types was implemented, the most common practices included stream fencing (for cattle exclusion), the development of nutrient management plans, conservation crop rotation, and the planting of cover crops. While the implementation of these conservation practices is encouraging, results indicate small increases in nitrate concentrations at the streamgage over the last 29 years, concurrent with small decreases in nitrate fluxes. It will likely be years before the cumulative effect of these practices can be detected in the Smith Creek water quality, and the magnitude of the effect of these conservation practices detected in Smith Creek will depend largely on whether nutrient loading (of manure and commercial fertilizer) is reduced over time. Upper Chester River The Upper Chester River watershed includes the 36-square-mile (mi 2 ) watershed area around several nontidal tributaries that drain into the tidal Chester River. The streamgage is on Chesterville Branch, the largest nontidal tributary (approximately 6.12 mi 2 ) and is the site for continuous water-quality monitoring for this project. The base-flow index at Chesterville Branch is about 72 percent and indicates that, as in most of the Coastal Plain, groundwater is the greatest contributor to streamflow. As such, more than 90 percent of the nitrogen in the stream is in the form of nitrate from groundwater. Continuous and discrete data collected at Chesterville Branch show the effects of streamflow and season on water quality. Significantly positive correlations with flow were observed for ammonium, dissolved and total phosphorus, sediment, and turbidity as runoff carried these constituents from the land surface into Chesterville Branch. Other constituents that increased significantly with flow include potassium, sulfate, iron, and manganese, which are likely contributed from near-stream areas and ponds with high organic-matter content. Total nitrogen, pH, and specific conductance, along with chemical constituents associated with groundwater inputs including nitrate, calcium, ratio of calcium to magnesium, silica, bicarbonate, and sodium, were negatively correlated with flow because concentrations of these constituents were diluted by runoff. Seasonal differences in water chemistry, which are most likely related to increased biologic effects on the uptake and release of chemicals in the stream and near-stream areas, also were observed. Water temperature, orthophosphate, δ 15 N of nitrate, bicarbonate, sodium, and the ratio of sodium to chloride were higher during the warm season, and dissolved oxygen, total nitrogen, nitrate, magnesium, sulfate, and manganese were higher during the cool season. Surrogate-regression models developed by using continuous water-quality data showed that the annual sediment load for the 2013 water year was about 2,600 tons, with more than 90 percent of this sediment contributed during two storms. The total phosphorus load in 2013 was about 13,000 pounds with more than 90 percent contributed during the same two storms as sediment. The load of total nitrogen, 140,000 pounds, accumulated steadily throughout the 2013 water year as nitrate in groundwater continuously discharged into the stream. The same two large storms that contributed 90 percent of the suspended-sediment and total phosphorus load only contributed about 20 percent of the annual total nitrogen load. Extensive water-quality monitoring of stream base flow throughout the Upper Chester River watershed identified how differences in land use and hydrogeology affected water chemistry. In parts of the watershed with well-drained soil and thick sandy aquifer sediments, concentrations of nitrate and other chemicals associated with fertilizer and lime application increased in streams as agricultural land use increased. More than 90 percent of the nitrogen in streams from these areas was in the form of nitrate, and concentrations ranged from about 5 milligrams per liter (mg/L) to 8 mg/L as nitrogen in the two largest tributaries. Stream nitrate concentrations were about 1 mg/L as nitrogen where soils were more poorly drained, the surficial aquifer sediments were thinner, and forests and wetlands were more widespread than agriculture. Nitrate isotope data were consistent with inorganic fertilizers ± atmospheric deposition and N 2 fixation as sources of nitrogen, and with nitrification as the dominant nitrate-forming process. Nitrate reduction was indicated by elevated δ 15 N and δ 18 O values in some samples from streams draining watersheds with poorly drained soils. An analysis of land-use data and SPARROW modeling input data attributed almost 90 percent of the nitrogen sources in the Upper Chester River watershed to inorganic fertilizer and fixation of atmospheric nitrogen by legumes, which is in agreement with the isotopic characteristics of nitrate in this watershed. Local sources of manure are limited in this area. Total phosphorus concentrations during base flow ranged from below detection to about 0.2 mg/L. Stream phosphorus concentrations during base flow were generally lower than those measured during storms because most phosphorus transport likely occurs as phosphorus attached to sediment particles during runoff. Because manure is not widely used in this area, the major source of phosphorus is likely fertilizer. The implementation of conservation practices in the Upper Chester River watershed increased substantially during the study period, with a total implementation of 1,194 U.S. Department of Agriculture-compliant practices. The most frequently used practices were oriented towards nutrient and sediment control, including cover crops, nutrient management planning, conservation crop rotation, conservation tillage, and irrigation management. The current Chesapeake Bay model for this area predicts that implementation of best management practices should result in a 13-percent decrease in overall delivery of nitrogen to the Upper Chester River. Because most nitrogen travels through the groundwater system for years to decades before being discharged to streams, the time period of monitoring was not sufficient to see the effects of these practices on water quality. The magnitude of the effect that may eventually be detected will depend on the degree to which nitrate leaching into the groundwater system is reduced over time. Loadings of phosphorus and sediment are primarily transported during large runoff events and are difficult to control and analyze for trends because of their timing and episodic nature. Conewago Creek Conewago Creek has two primary monitoring locations—one near the middle of the 47-mi 2 watershed and the other near the outlet just upstream of the Susquehanna River. The base-flow index was 47.3 percent for 2012–2013, indicating that on average, approximately 53 percent of the streamflow in Conewago Creek exited the watershed as surface flow, which suggests that the stormwater runoff was somewhat greater than groundwater discharge (base flow). A series of cluster and principal components analyses demonstrated that the majority of the variability in the Conewago Creek water quality could be attributed to hydrologic and seasonal variability. Statistically significant positive correlations with flow were observed at both monitoring sites for ammonium, total phosphorus, orthophosphate, iron, and manganese; additionally, at the upstream monitoring station, total nitrogen demonstrated a statistically significant positive correlation with flow. Statistically significant inverse correlations with flow were observed at both sites for water temperature, specific conductance (at the downstream site only), sulfate, chloride, calcium, and magnesium. Statistically significant seasonal patterns were observed for several water-quality constituents. Water temperature, phosphorus (upstream site only), and orthophosphate were higher during the warm season, and nitrate and total nitrogen (upstream site only) were higher during the cool season. Surrogate regression models were developed to compute sediment and nutrient load in Conewago Creek by using the continuous water-quality monitors and water-quality samples. Conewago Creek sediment load was approximately 9,900 tons in 2012 and approximately 18,900 tons in 2013, with nearly 80 percent of the sediment load in 2013 contributed by the three largest storm events. Annual total nitrogen loads could not be estimated due to poor model performance. The addition of continued monitoring or a continuously recording nitrate sensor could improve estimates of total nitrogen loads. During 2012 and 2013, phosphorus loads in Conewago Creek were approximately 50,000 pounds in each year. Combining data from one high-flow synoptic sampling with the data from routine sampling revealed how the geology and hydrology interact to result in variable water chemistry throughout the Conewago Creek watershed. The areas above the upstream gage in the headwaters are generally underlain by forested non-carbonate bedrock and are characterized by relatively low nitrate, specific conductance, calcium, and magnesium, as well as relatively low concentrations of phosphorus, ammonium, iron, and manganese. The more developed, agricultural areas below the upstream site were generally characterized by higher ionic strength waters with higher nutrient and metal concentrations. An analysis of land-use data and SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed (SPARROW) modeling data indicates that manure sources of nitrogen dominate the input of nitrogen to the watershed. Implementation of conservation practices increased in the Conewago Creek watershed during the study period, and while a broad range of practice types were implemented, the most common practices included residue and tillage management, cover crops, nutrient management, terracing, and stream fencing (for animal exclusion or bank restoration). While the implementation of these conservation practices is encouraging, the cumulative effects of these practices probably will not be detected in Conewago Creek water quality for several years. The magnitude of the effects of these conservation practices on water quality in Conewago Creek will depend largely on the extent to which nutrient loading (septic, manure, and commercial fertilizer) and sediment-producing activities are reduced over time. Difficult Run The Difficult Run watershed is a 57.82-mi 2 watershed that drains to the Potomac River. The long-term Difficult Run base-flow index (from 1936 to 2010) was 57.9, indicating that approximately 58 percent of streamflow exited the watershed as base flow and 42 percent as stormflow; however, with continued development and urbanization of the watershed, the base-flow index has decreased to 50 percent during the last 20 years. This base-flow index was less than those of the other watersheds evaluated in this study, likely because the Difficult Run watershed largely is underlain by crystalline piedmont metamorphic rocks and has a greater proportion of impervious urban land cover. A series of cluster and principal components analyses indicated that most of the variability in Difficult Run water quality could be attributed to hydrologic variability and seasonality. Statistically significant positive correlations with flow were observed for turbidity, dissolved oxygen, suspended sediments, ammonium, orthophosphate, iron, and total phosphorus. Statistically significant inverse correlations with flow were observed for water temperature, pH, specific conductance, bicarbonate, calcium, magnesium, nitrate, δ 15 N of nitrate, and silica. Statistically significant seasonal patterns were observed for numerous water-quality constituents: water temperature, ammonium, orthophosphate, and δ 15 N of nitrate were higher during the warm season, and dissolved oxygen, nitrate, and manganese were higher during the cool season. Surrogate regression models were developed to compute sediment and nutrient loading rates. The Difficult Run sediment load was approximately 8,000 tons per year, with greater than 95 percent of the sediment load in the 2013 water year contributed by the seven largest storm events. The total phosphorus load in Difficult Run was approximately 14,000 pounds of phosphorus per year, with the majority of the load contributed during stormflow periods. The total nitrogen load in Difficult Run is estimated to have been approximately 140,000 pounds per year, with total nitrogen accumulation less dominated by stormflow contributions than that of phosphorus and strongly affected by base-flow export of nitrogen from the basin. Extensive water-quality monitoring throughout the Difficult Run watershed revealed relatively uniform generation of flow per unit of watershed area, as well as spatial variation in water quality that is strongly related to land-use activities. Elevated nitrate concentrations were observed in a subset of monitoring sites that are inversely correlated with population density and positively correlated to the septic system density within each subwatershed. The majority of the elevated nitrate concentrations for these sites are hypothesized to be caused by nitrate leaching from septic systems, more so than homeowner fertilizer usage among these subwatersheds that have lower population densities than other parts of the watershed. Nitrate isotope data, temporal patterns in the water-quality data, mass-balance computations, and a separate land-use analysis all generally indicate that leachate from septic systems was the likely source of the elevated nitrate. Another group of water-quality sites have relatively low nitrogen concentrations, are located in areas that are served by city sewer lines, and have experienced stream restoration activities. A final group of sites drained the areas with the highest imperviousness and had strongly elevated specific conductance, chloride, and sodium, which were likely caused by a combination of road salting and other anthropogenic sources draining these urbanized areas in the watershed. A fourth group of sites represents a mixture of water sources and had water quality similar to that at the Difficult Run streamgage. Analysis of the nitrate isotope data generally indicates a broad range of composition indicative of mixed natural and anthropogenic nitrogen sources. Implementation of conservation practices increased in the Difficult Run watershed during the study period, and while a broad range of practice types was implemented, the most common practices included stream restoration. While the implementation of these conservation practices is encouraging, the cumulative effect of these practices probably will not be detected in Difficult Run water quality for several years.

Maryland, Pennsylvania, Virginia

Geospatial standard operating procedures of the Chesapeake Bay Program

Introduction The Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP) has operated a geographic information system (GIS) program since the early 1990s to address the established and growing need for and use of geospatial data, maps, and analysis within the CBP Partnership. This report is intended to detail the standard operating procedures of the CBP GIS program and address the quality assurance, quality control, and other technical activities that CBP will implement to ensure the commitment of the CBP GIS Team to performance standards (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2003). The report is intended as an update to the 2011 Quality Assurance Project Plan (QAPP). For specialized tasks or analytical projects beyond the scope of this QAPP, a separate specialized QAPP with details on quality control, assurance procedures, and the geospatial methods associated with all aspects of the project may be required.

Open-File Report

Application of spatially referenced regression modeling for the evaluation of total nitrogen loading in the Chesapeake Bay watershed

The reduction of stream nutrient loads is an important part of current efforts to improve water quality in the Chesapeake Bay. To design programs that will effectively reduce stream nutrient loading, resource managers need spatially detailed information that describes the location of nutrient sources and the watershed factors that affect delivery of nutrients to the Bay. To address this need, the U.S. Geological Survey has developed a set of spatially referenced regression models for the evaluation of nutrient loading in the watershed. The technique applied for this purpose is referred to as ?SPARROW? (SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes), which is a statistical modeling approach that retains spatial referencing for illustrating predictions, and for relating upstream nutrient sources to downstream nutrient loads. SPARROW is based on a digital stream-network data set that is composed of stream segments (reaches) that are attributed with traveltime and connectivity information. Drainage-basin boundaries are defined for each stream reach in the network data set through the use of a digital elevation model. For the Chesapeake Bay watershed, the spatial network was developed using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency?s River Reach File 1 digital stream network, and is composed of 1,408 stream reaches and watershed segments. To develop a SPARROW model for total nitrogen in the Chesapeake Bay watershed, data sets for sources and basin characteristics were incorporated into the spatial network and related to stream-loading information by using a nonlinear regression model approach. Total nitrogen source variables that were statistically significant in the model include point sources, urban area, fertilizer application, manure generation and atmospheric deposition. Total nitrogen loss variables that were significant in the model include soil permeability and instream-loss rates for four stream-reach classes. Applications of SPARROW for evaluating total nitrogen loading in the Chesapeake Bay watershed include the illustration of the spatial distributions of total nitrogen yields and of the potential for delivery of those yields to the Bay. This information is being used by the Chesapeake Bay Program to target nutrient-reduction areas (Priority Nutrient Reduction Areas) and to design nutrient-load reduction plans that are specific to each tributary (Tributary Strategies).

Chesapeake Bay watershed

U.S. Geological Survey Greater Everglades Science Program: 2002 Biennial Report

Introduction The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducts scientific investigations in south Florida to improve society’s understanding of the environment and assist in the sustainable use, protection, and restoration of the Everglades and other ecosystems within the region. The investigations summarized in this document have been carried out under the Greater Everglades Science Program (previously known as the South Florida Ecosystem Program), which is part of the USGS Place-Based Studies initiative. The USGS Placed-Based Studies initiative is a nationwide program that concentrates on areas with severe environmental problems. Through interdisciplinary investigations the Program provides sound scientific information on which to base informed resource management decisions. Individuals from all the USGS programs (hydrology, geology, biology, mapping) work together with other scientists to cover the diverse scientific disciplines involved in this complex and challenging task. The Greater Everglades Science Program began in 1995 as one of the initial Place-Based Studies programs and serves as a model for similar future collaborative studies. Placed-Based Studies are also being conducted in the San Francisco Bay area, Chesapeake Bay, the Platte River, Greater Yellowstone, Salton Sea, and the Mojave Desert. The South Florida Ecosystem Program is part of a coordinated federal effort, under the South Florida Ecosystem Restoration Task Force. The Task Force was started in 1993, through interagency agreement, to coordinate the efforts of the agencies within six federal departments. In 1996, statutory authority formalized the Task Force and expanded it to include tribal, state, and local governments. The Task Force conducts its activities through the South Florida Ecosystem Working Group and teams, such as the Science Coordination Team. A Science Plan and Integrated Financial Plans are established to focus efforts and prevent duplicative efforts by the agencies.

Open-File Report

A conceptual framework and monitoring strategy for movement of saltwater in the coastal plain aquifer system of Virginia

A conceptual framework synthesizes previous studies to provide an understanding of conditions, processes, and relations of saltwater to groundwater withdrawal in the Virginia Coastal Plain aquifer system. A strategy for monitoring saltwater movement is based on spatial relations between the saltwater-transition zone and 612 groundwater-production wells that were regulated during 2013 by the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality. The vertical position and lateral distance and direction of the bottom of each production well’s screened interval was calculated relative to previously published groundwater chloride iso-concentration surfaces. Spatial analysis identified 81 production wells completed in the Yorktown-Eastover and Potomac aquifers that are positioned in closest proximity to the 250-milligrams-per-liter chloride surface, and from which chloride concentrations are most likely to increase above the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s 250-milligrams-per-liter secondary maximum-contaminant level. Observation wells are specified to distinguish vertical upconing from lateral intrusion among individual production wells. To monitor upconing, an observation well is to be collocated with each production well and completed at about the altitude of the 250-milligrams-per-liter chloride iso-concentration surface. To monitor lateral intrusion, a potential location of an observation well is projected from the bottom of each production well’s screened interval, in the lateral direction to the underlying chloride surface to a distance of 1 mile. Monitoring potential withdrawal-induced movement of saltwater in the Virginia Coastal Plain aquifer system is needed to detect increases in chloride concentration before groundwater-production wells become contaminated. An investigation was undertaken during 2014 by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality, to provide a sound scientific understanding of saltwater movement and guidance to implement a monitoring program. Previous studies have theorized that the saltwater originated primarily from seawater repeatedly emplaced within aquifer sediments during the past about 65 million years. Subsequent flushing by fresh groundwater has been impeded across sediments filling the Chesapeake Bay impact crater. The resulting saltwater-transition zone has been mapped to exhibit a warped and steeply mounded dome shape about centered on the impact crater, and flanked by a nearly level and shallow plateau shape to the southeast. Groundwater chloride concentrations have historically fluctuated during periods of weeks to months, probably as a result of localized vertical upconing beneath individual production wells. Lateral intrusion takes several decades or more to horizontally displace groundwater across distances of about 1 mile toward production wells. Upconing is relatively immediate, but reversible, whereas lateral intrusion under the regionally landward hydraulic gradient may slowly, but permanently reposition the saltwater-transition zone. Upconing coupled with lateral intrusion is theorized to produce composite chloride-concentration trends that vary widely over time in response to changing water demands, and evolve dynamically from hydraulic interactions among multiple neighboring production wells. Some aspects of observation-well construction and sampling are of particular importance to monitoring saltwater movement in the Virginia Coastal Plain aquifer system. Observation wells should feature screened intervals generally of no more than 10 feet that isolate distinct parts of the aquifer, and be thoroughly developed for removal of drilling fluid and introduced water. Presample purging should fully displace stratified saltwater in the well casing upward to the pump. Stable flow should be maintained as field parameters are measured and sample containers are filled with filtered water isolated from the atmosphere and unaffected by surface temperature. Groundwater samples from both upconing and lateral-intrusion observation wells should initially be collected four times per year when wells are newly established, but can be more optimally timed with withdrawal once responses in chloride concentrations can be reliably predicted. Concentrations of major ions (1) determine the dominant chemical composition of groundwater at each well, (2) establish the relative position of the well within the saltwater-transition zone, and (3) provide data quality control by calculation of sample charge balance. For these reasons, samples initially collected for the first year from newly established observation wells should be analyzed for calcium, magnesium, sodium, and potassium cations and chloride, bicarbonate, carbonate, sulfate, fluoride, and bromide anions. Inflection-point titration for alkalinity should be completed in the field. Analysis of chloride and field parameters may be adequate on a long-term basis once the dominant chemical composition at each well is established. Specific conductance may also provide a surrogate for chloride concentration depending on regulatory policy. The saltwater-movement monitoring strategy is limited and constrained. Relative monitoring needs among groundwater-production wells, and construction of observation wells, depend on the accuracy of previously mapped groundwater chloride iso-concentration surfaces. Production wells in similar proximity to saltwater can differ in aquifer hydraulic conductivity, rates of withdrawal, and screened-interval lengths. Only production wells making withdrawals reported to the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality have been accounted for; undocumented production wells can result in spurious changes in groundwater chloride concentration. Upconing observation wells should be as close as possible to corresponding production wells, so long as production wells are not damaged by borehole deviation. Projected locations of some lateral-intrusion observation wells may be precluded and require adjustment. Depths of upconing and lateral-intrusion observation wells may also require adjustment to be within the same aquifer as their corresponding production wells. Existing unused wells can be adapted as observation wells if differences from specified locations and construction are kept to a minimum and are accounted for. Where multiple production wells are in proximity, a modified monitoring approach may be needed to determine their net effect on changes in chloride concentration, and may require more than one lateral-intrusion observation well depending on the vertical positions of production-well screened intervals.

Virginia