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Statistical methods in water resources

This text began as a collection of class notes for a course on applied statistical methods for hydrologists taught at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Training Center. Course material was formalized and organized into a textbook, first published in 1992 by Elsevier as part of their Studies in Environmental Science series. In 2002, the work was made available online as a USGS report. The text has now been updated as a USGS Techniques and Methods Report. It is intended to be a text in applied statistics for hydrology, environmental science, environmental engineering, geology, or biology that addresses distinctive features of environmental data. For example, water resources data tend to have many variables with a lower bound of zero, tend to be more skewed than data from many other disciplines, commonly contain censored data (less than values), and assumptions that the data are normally distributed are not appropriate. Computer-intensive methods (bootstrapping and permutation tests) now improve upon and replace the dependence on t-intervals, t-tests, and analysis of variance. A new chapter on sampling design addresses questions such as “How many observations do I need?” The chapter also presents distribution-free methods to help plan sampling efforts. The trends chapter has been updated to include the WRTDS (Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season) method for analysis of water-quality data. This new version contains updated graphics and updated guidance on the use of statistical techniques. The text utilizes R, a programming language and open-source software environment, for all exercises and most graphics, and the R code used to generate figures and examples is provided for download.

Techniques and Methods

UNLV’s environmentally friendly Science and Engineering Building is monitored for earthquake shaking

The University of Nevada Las Vegas’ (UNLV) Science and Engineering Building is at the cutting edge of environmentally friendly design. As the result of a recent effort by the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Strong Motion Project in cooperation with UNLV, the building is now also in the forefront of buildings installed with structural monitoring systems to measure response during earthquakes. This is particularly important because this is the first such building in Las Vegas. The seismic instrumentation will provide essential data to better understand the structural performance of buildings, especially in this seismically active region.

Nevada

Approaching the upper boundary of driver-response relationships: Identifying factors using a novel framework integrating quantile regression with interpretable machine learning

The identification of factors that may be forcing ecological observations to approach the upper boundary provides insight into potential mechanisms affecting driver-response relationships, and can help inform ecosystem management, but has rarely been explored. In this study, we propose a novel framework integrating quantile regression with interpretable machine learning. In the first stage of the framework, we estimate the upper boundary of a driver-response relationship using quantile regression. Next, we calculate “potentials” of the response variable depending on the driver, which are defined as vertical distances from the estimated upper boundary of the relationship to observations in the driver-response variable scatter plot. Finally, we identify key factors impacting the potential using a machine learning model. We illustrate the necessary steps to implement the framework using the total phosphorus (TP)-Chlorophyll a (CHL) relationship in lakes across the continental US. We found that the nitrogen to phosphorus ratio (N:P), annual average precipitation, total nitrogen (TN), and summer average air temperature were key factors impacting the potential of CHL depending on TP. We further revealed important implications of our findings for lake eutrophication management. The important role of N:P and TN on the potential highlights the co-limitation of phosphorus and nitrogen and indicates the need for dual nutrient criteria. Future wetter and/or warmer climate scenarios can decrease the potential which may reduce the efficacy of lake eutrophication management. The novel framework advances the application of quantile regression to identify factors driving observations to approach the upper boundary of driver-response relationships.

Frontiers of Environmental Science & Engineering

An innovative carbonate coprecipitation process for the removal of zinc and manganese from mining impacted waters

Although mine drainage is usually thought of as acidic, there are many cases where the water is of neutral pH, but still contains metal species that can be harmful to human or aquatic animal health, such as manganese (Mn) and zinc (Zn). Typical treatment of mine drainage waters involves pH adjustment, but this often results in excessive sludge formation and removal of nontoxic species such as magnesium and calcium. Theoretical consideration of the stability of metal carbonate species suggests that the target metals could be removed from solution by coprecipitation with calcium carbonate. The U.S. Geological Survey has developed a limestone-based process for remediation of acid mine drainage that increases calcium carbonate saturation. This treatment could then be coupled with carbonate coprecipitation as an innovative method for removal of toxic metals from circumneutral mine drainage waters. The new process was termed the carbonate coprecipitation (CCP) process. The CCP process was tested at the laboratory scale using a synthetic mine water containing 50 mg/L each of Mn and Zn. Best results showed over 95% removal of both Mn and Zn in less than 2 h of contact in a limestone channel. The process was then tested on a sample of water from the Palmerton zinc superfund site, near Palmerton, Pennsylvania, containing over 300 mg/L Zn and 60 mg/L Mn. Treatment of this water resulted in removal of over 95% of the Zn and 40% of the Mn in the limestone channel configuration. Because of the potential economic advantages of the CCP process, further research is recommended for refinement of the process for the Palmerton water and for application to other mining impacted waters as well. ?? Mary Ann Liebert, Inc.

Environmental Engineering Science

Using semi-permeable membrane devices and stable nitrogen isotopes to detect anthropogenic influences on the Truckee River, USA

Stable nitrogen isotopes (??15N) and semipermeable membrane devices (SPMDs) were used together to provide evidence of potential anthropogenic connections to aquatic organisms in the Truckee River, which flows through the Reno/Sparks metropolitan area in Nevada. Crayfish, snail, and periphyton ??15N values, and SPMD toxicity data collected during high and low flow periods at seven primary sites on the river were used with water quality and flow data for the assessment. All biota showed an increase of ??15N on both dates at sites downstream of inflows of a water-quality impaired tributary and urban drain relative to upstream. In addition, most of the lowest ??15N values on each date occurred at the most downstream site on the river. SPMDs sample lipophilic organic contaminants and can be used to assess organic contaminant toxicity to aquatic organisms because they use a membrane that mimics organic contaminant uptake by fish. In this study, results from a fluoroscan test [pyrene index (PI)] of SPMD extracts that responds to higher molecular weight polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) showed patterns similar to stable isotope data, although observed peaks in PI values occurred in the urban area upstream of where peak ??15N values occurred. The CYP1A biomarker test, which responds to PAHs, certain polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), and organochlorines, showed peak toxic equivalents (TEQ) values farther downstream of the urban area. Thus, it is likely that PAHs were contributing to toxicity in the urban area, whereas other nonurban sources of organic carbon may have been present farther downstream. The combined use of stable isotope measurements and SPMDs provided a means of simultaneously examining whether aquatic biota are incorporating constituents from potential food sources (via stable isotopes) or exposure through water (via SPMDs). ?? Mary Ann Liebert, Inc. 2008.

Environmental Engineering Science

Concentrations and distributions of metals associated with dissolved organic matter from the Suwannee River (GA, USA)

Concentrations and distributions of metals in Suwannee River (SR) raw filtered surface water (RFSW) and dissolved organic matter (DOM) processed by reverse osmosis (RO), XAD-8 resin (for humic and fulvic acids [FA]), and XAD-4 resin (for “transphilic” acids) were analyzed by asymmetrical flow field-flow fractionation (AsFlFFF). SR samples were compared with DOM samples from Nelson's Creek (NLC), a wetland-draining stream in northern Michigan; previous International Humic Substances Society (IHSS) FA and RO samples from the SR; and an XAD-8 sample from Lake Fryxell (LF), Antarctica. Despite application of cation exchange during sample processing, all XAD and RO samples contained substantial metal concentrations. AsFlFFF fractograms allowed metal distributions to be characterized as a function of DOM component molecular weight (MW). In SR RFSW, Fe, Al, and Cu were primarily associated with intermediate to higher than average MW DOM components. SR RO, XAD-8, and XAD-4 samples from May 2012 showed similar MW trends for Fe and Al but Cu tended to associate more with lower MW DOM. LF DOM had abundant Cu and Zn, perhaps due to amine groups that should be present due to its primarily algal origins. None of the fractograms showed obvious evidence for mineral nanoparticles, although some very small mineral nanoparticles might have been present at trace concentrations. This research suggests that AsFlFFF is important for understanding how metals are distributed in different DOM samples (including IHSS samples), which may be key to metal reactivity and bioavailability.

Georgia

Centering voices of scientists from marginalized backgrounds to understand experiences in climate adaptation science and inform action

Identifying and building solutions to help people and ecosystems adapt to climate change requires participation of all people; however, Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) fields, including environmental sciences, continue to lack diversity. To address this issue, many institutions have increased programming to recruit and retain people from historically marginalized backgrounds in STEM fields. Institutions use surveys to evaluate the experiences of community members and identify areas for improvement; however, surveys often summarize and reflect majority perspectives and disregard voices of historically marginalized individuals. In June 2021, a survey of graduate students, postdocs, faculty, staff, and researchers affiliated with the Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center (NE CASC) evaluated their experiences of diversity, equity, inclusion, and justice (DEIJ) using Likert-based and long-answer questions. We analyzed the results as a whole, but also focused on the responses of people who self-identified as members of a marginalized group (“marginalized respondents”) in climate adaptation science to center their voices. Marginalized respondents reported being motivated to enter climate adaptation science to improve society and the environment rather than for intellectual curiosity, which motivated one third of non-marginalized respondents. Once in science, marginalized respondents reported feeling less supported and comfortable at work and were more likely to have considered leaving science and academia in the last year. Long-answer responses of marginalized respondents indicated distrust in the ability of leadership and existing DEIJ initiatives to effectively tackle systemic issues and emphasized the importance of focusing on equity and inclusion before recruitment. Marginalized respondents identified additional funding to support existing DEIJ efforts and undergraduates as priorities. By allowing participants to self-identify as part of a marginalized group, we were able to highlight experiences and needs without risking exposure based on race, gender, disability status, or sexual orientation. This approach can be applied to other small organizations with limited demographic diversity.

PLoS ONE

Promoting synergy in the innovative use of environmental data—Workshop summary

From December 2 to 4, 2015, NatureServe and the U.S. Geological Survey organized and hosted a biodiversity and ecological informatics workshop at the U.S. Department of the Interior in Washington, D.C. The workshop objective was to identify user-driven future directions and areas of collaboration in advanced applications of environmental data applied to forecasting and decision making for the sustainability of biodiversity and ecosystem services. Substantial effort to recruit attendees from diverse Federal, State, and private sector organizations successfully attracted participants from 20 Federal agencies and 48 different institutions in the academic, nonprofit, State government, and commercial sectors; the total number of attendees ranged from 100 to 144 during the 3-day workshop. The first one-half of the workshop was divided into 7 plenary sessions and 3 sets of lightning talk sessions organized by sector, providing 48 oral and visual plenary presentations that shared diverse perspectives on biodiversity and ecological informatics, including original biospatial analyses from 6 graduate student map contest winners. The second one-half of the workshop focused on 10 breakout sessions with participant-driven themes from the environmental data sphere and concluded with an address by the Director of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. The workshop was structured to encourage interactivity. About 80–90 percent of attendees provided direct feedback using clicker devices for specific questions related to biodiversity and ecological data uses and needs, and 10 breakout session leaders shared the highlights of their group discussions during the final workshop plenary sessions. Participants were encouraged to use the Twitter hashtag #ShareUrData. Over lunch on day 2 there were 20 simultaneous presentations of tools and apps during a special “Tools Café” session. The 10 participant-defined breakout session topics are listed below: Ecosystem services and ecological indicators Inventory and monitoring Biogeographic map of the Nation Pollinators Invasive species Remote sensing Drivers of agricultural change Citizen science Climate Hydrology and watersheds Numerous common themes that emerged from the workshop include the following: The vital importance of completing foundational environmental datasets that are nationally consistent and are essential to multiple sectors, such as the Soil Survey Geographic database high-resolution soils data, a minimum 5-meter resolution digital elevation model, national hydrographic data, high-resolution land cover data, time series high-resolution spatial climate data from historical to future time steps, and a national wetland inventory. Improved, nationally consistent environmental datasets (integrated with targeted observations) will dramatically advance forecasting capacity and support early warning systems (that is, drought, forest disease); however, multiagency coordination should focus on decision support tools that convey appropriate actions and responses to adapt to, and mitigate, potential negative consequences. Digitizing and providing access to the vast stores of underused historical data that can be leveraged for this purpose is of national importance. Modern computational techniques and the ever-increasing flow of environmental data from ground and remote observations can support improved understanding of environmental change. Success of understanding patterns of change for decision making requires establishing baselines from which change can be measured. The value of digitized historical data is greater than ever before. There is a need to recognize the multifaceted potential of citizen science to engage the public in resource stewardship, to create the next generation of science, technology, engineering, math, and environmental leaders, and to have sufficient field personnel to monitor environmental trends, including early detection of alien invasive species, phenological shifts, shifting distribution and abundance of indicator species, and species inventories. The Federal government has an essential role in creating the infrastructure to dramatically improve mobilization of citizen science (and other) data by fostering the following: creation of data standards, creation of nationally consistent framework datasets, vertical integration of observation data, visualization and dissemination of aggregated datasets, and calculation and communication of derived trends. Current and near future trends in the availability of remotely sensed data (rapid expansion of satellite fleets and drones) is revolutionizing access to near-real-time ecological data. Targeted integration with ground-based observations and instrumentation has an extremely valuable role in validating remotely sensed data, filling data gaps, improving data quality, and fully realizing the potential of the near-real-time monitoring of environmental indicator trends. Integrated management of environmental data at the landscape scale is required even as specific actions on the ground are largely local in nature. The workshop highlighted numerous success stories; however, almost every breakout group pointed out the still-too-fragmented nature of the current data landscape. Management and delivery of the necessary data, tools, and analyses to sustain our Nation’s environmental capital must be a collaborative effort between Federal, State, and local governments, academia, nonprofits, and the commercial sector, even though the responsibilities of each sector are different.

Open-File Report

Effect of rhizosphere on soil microbial community and in-situ pyrene biodegradation

To access the influence of a vegetation on soil microorganisms toward organic pollutant biogegration, this study examined the rhizospheric effects of four plant species (sudan grass, white clover, alfalfa, and fescue) on the soil microbial community and in-situ pyrene (PYR) biodegradation. The results indicated that the spiked PYR levels in soils decreased substantially compared to the control soil without planting. With equal planted densities, the efficiencies of PYR degradation in rhizosphere with sudan grass, white clover, alfalfa and fescue were 34.0%, 28.4%, 27.7%, and 9.9%, respectively. However, on the basis of equal root biomass the efficiencies were in order of white clover >> alfalfa > sudan > fescue. The increased PYR biodegradation was attributed to the enhanced bacterial population and activity induced by plant roots in the rhizosphere. Soil microbial species and biomasses were elucidated in terms of microbial phospholipid ester-linked fatty acid (PLFA) biomarkers. The principal component analysis (PCA) revealed significant changes in PLFA pattern in planted and non-planted soils spiked with PYR. Total PLFAs in planted soils were all higher than those in non-planted soils. PLFA assemblages indicated that bacteria were the primary PYR degrading microorganisms, and that Gram-positive bacteria exhibited higher tolerance to PYR than Gram-negative bacteria did. ?? 2008 Higher Education Press and Springer-Verlag GmbH.

Frontiers of Environmental Science and Engineering

Toxicity reduction of photo processing wastewaters

The photo processing industry can be characterized by treatment processes and subsequent silver recovery. The effluents generated all contain various amounts of silver. The objectives of this study were to determine toxicity of photo processing effluents and to explore their toxicity mitigation. Six samples, from small shops to a major photo processing center, were studied. Two samples (I and VI) were found to be extremely toxic, causing 100 and 99% inhibition of duckweed frond reproduction, respectively, and were used for subsequent toxicity reduction experiments. Lime and sodium sulfide were effective for the toxicity reduction of Sample VI; both reduced its toxicity to negligible. Sample I was far more toxic and was first diluted to 2.2% and then treated with 0.5 g lime/100 mL, reducing toxicity from 100% to 12% inhibition.

Journal of Environmental Science and Health - Part

Local and regional factors affecting atmospheric mercury speciation at a remote location

Atmospheric concentrations of elemental (Hg0), reactive gaseous (RGM), and particulate (PHg) mercury were measured at two remote sites in the midwestern United States. Concurrent measurements of Hg0, PHg, and RGM obtained at Devil's Lake and Mt. Horeb, located approximately 65 km apart, showed that Hg0 and PHg concentrations were affected by regional, as well as local sources, while RGM was mainly impacted by local sources. Plumes reaching the Devil's Lake site from a nearby coal-fired power plant significantly impacted SO2 and RGM concentrations at Devil's Lake, but had little impact on Hg0. Our findings suggest that traditional modeling approaches to assess sources of mercury deposited that utilize source emissions and large-scale grids may not be sufficient to predict mercury deposition at sensitive locations due to the importance of small-scale sources and processes. We suggest the use of a receptor-based monitoring to better understand mercury source-receptor relationships.

Wisconsin

A nationwide evaluation of crowd-sourced ambient temperature data

Growing concerns about heat in urban areas paired with the sparsity of weather stations have resulted in individuals drawing on data from citizen science sensor networks to fill in data gaps. The PurpleAir are the most widely-used low-cost air quality sensors in the contiguous United States with 14,777 deployed between 1 Jan 2017 and 20 July 2021. Although the air quality data from PurpleAir sensors have been widely studied, less attention has been paid to reported temperature. We compare temperature metrics reported by PurpleAir sensors with a gridded temperature product, the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS)-2, which although not a gold-standard measure of temperature, is widely used in epidemiologic research. We evaluate the lag between indoor and outdoor PurpleAir temperatures. We report associations of the difference between outdoor PurpleAir temperatures and NLDAS-2 temperatures, an indicator of degradation, and the duration of sensor operation. Finally, based on the temperature range recorded by the outdoor PurpleAir sensors vis.a.vis NLDAS-2 temperatures, we provide a list of 271 (2.5%) sensors potentially misclassified as outdoor and likely located indoors. We observed that outdoor PurpleAir sensors agreed well with NLDAS-2 (R2 > 0.82). This association broke down under warm conditions (daily average NLDAS ≥ 21.1oC). Landcover and climate zone were significant modifiers of the association between PurpleAir and NLDAS-2 temperature metrics with the poorest PurpleAir- NLDAS-2 agreement in urban areas. Indoor PurpleAir temperatures lagged hourly NLDAS temperatures by two hours across almost all climate zones. The mean difference in hourly PurpleAir and NLDAS-2 temperatures increased by 0.57oC for every operational year, suggesting that careful attention must be paid to degradation. Overall, we find for use in epidemiological studies, that the PurpleAir sensor data is a reliable metric of daytime mean air temperature, but researchers should be aware of its limitations when examining extreme heat, or when aggregating sensor data across multiple years.

Frontiers of Environmental Science and Engineering

Partnership of Environmental Education and Research-A compilation of student research, 1999-2008

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Tennessee Water Science Center and the College of Engineering and Technology at Tennessee State University developed a Partnership in Environmental Education and Research (PEER) to support environmental research at TSU and to expand the environmental research capabilities of the USGS in Tennessee. The PEER program is driven by the research needs to better define the occurrence, fate, and transport of contaminants in groundwater and surface water. Research in the PEER program has primarily focused on the transport and remediation of organic contamination in karst settings. Research conducted through the program has also expanded to a variety of media and settings. Research areas include contaminant occurrence and transport, natural and enhanced bioremediation, geochemical conditions in karst aquifers, mathematical modeling for contaminant transport and degradation, new methods to evaluate groundwater contamination, the resuspension of bacteria from sediment in streams, the use of bioluminescence and chemiluminescence to identify the presence of contaminants, and contaminant remediation in wetlands. The PEER program has increased research and education opportunities for students in the College of Engineering, Technology, and Computer Science and has provided students with experience in presenting the results of their research. Students in the program have participated in state, regional, national and international conferences with more than 140 presentations since 1998 and more than 40 student awards. The PEER program also supports TSU outreach activities and efforts to increase minority participation in environmental and earth science programs at the undergraduate and graduate levels. TSU students and USGS staff participate in the TSU summer programs for elementary and high school students to promote earth sciences. The 2007 summer camps included more than 130 students from 20 different States and Washington DC.

Tennessee

Undergraduate research projects help promote diversity in the geosciences

A workforce that draws from all segments of society and mirrors the ethnic, racial, and gender diversity of the United States population is important. The geosciences (geology, hydrology, geospatial sciences, environmental sciences) continue to lag far behind other science, technology, engineering and mathematical (STEM) disciplines in recruiting and retaining minorities (Valsco and Valsco, 2010). A report published by the National Science Foundation in 2015, “Women, Minorities, and Persons with Disabilities in Science and Engineering” states that from 2002 to 2012, less than 2% of the geoscience degrees were awarded to African-American students. Data also show that as of 2012, approximately 30% of African-American Ph.D. graduates obtained a bachelor’s degree from a Historic Black College or University (HBCU), indicating that HBCUs are a great source of diverse students for the geosciences. This paper reviews how an informal partnership between Tennessee State University (a HBCU), the U.S. Geological Survey, and Mammoth Cave National Park engaged students in scientific research and increased the number of students pursuing employment or graduate degrees in the geosciences.

Conference Paper

Socio-technical scales in socio-environmental modeling: Managing a system-of-systems modeling approach

System-of-systems approaches for integrated assessments have become prevalent in recent years. Such approaches integrate a variety of models from different disciplines and modeling paradigms to represent a socio-environmental (or social-ecological) system aiming to holistically inform policy and decision-making processes. Central to the system-of-systems approaches is the representation of systems in a multi-tier framework with nested scales. Current modeling paradigms, however, have disciplinary-specific lineage, leading to inconsistencies in the conceptualization and integration of socio-environmental systems. In this paper, a multidisciplinary team of researchers, from engineering, natural and social sciences, have come together to detail socio-technical practices and challenges that arise in the consideration of scale throughout the socio-environmental modeling process. We identify key paths forward, focused on explicit consideration of scale and uncertainty, strengthening interdisciplinary communication, and improvement of the documentation process. We call for a grand vision (and commensurate funding) for holistic system-of-systems research that engages researchers, stakeholders, and policy makers in a multi-tiered process for the co-creation of knowledge and solutions to major socio-environmental problems.

Environmental Modelling and Software

Upper Mississippi River system weighted wind fetch analysis (1989, 2000, 2010/2011)

Wind fetch is defined as the unobstructed distance that wind can travel over water in a constant direction. Fetches are limited by landforms surrounding the body of water. Fetch is an important characteristic of open water because longer fetches can result in larger wind-generated waves. The larger waves, in turn, can increase shoreline erosion and sediment resuspension (Rohweder and others 2012). Increases in sediment resuspension lead to increases in water turbidity, which in turn decreases light penetration and, therefore, create conditions less conducive to aquatic plant growth (Giblin and others 2010). A wind fetch model was developed by David Finlayson, U. S. Geological Survey, Pacific Science Center, while he was a Ph.D. student at the University of Washington (Finlayson 2005). This method calculates effective fetch using the recommended procedure of the Shore Protection Manual (USACE 1984). Scientists at the United States Geological Survey, Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences Center (UMESC) and the United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) further refined this model (Rohweder and others 2012) and structured it to operate using the most recent version of the ArcMap Geographic Information System platform (Esri, 2019). At the time the analysis was performed, the version of ArcMap used was 10.7.1. The model refined in 2012 was used for the analyses described in this report. Using this model, UMESC performed an analysis to model weighted wind fetch for the Upper Mississippi River System (UMRS) corresponding to three separate time periods of land cover spatial data acquisition (1989, 2000, and 2010/2011). The purpose of the analysis was to examine how fetch varies over time and space within the UMRS for potential management applications. For more detailed information on the wind fetch model, examine the USGS Open-File Report by Rohweder and others (2012).

Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Wisconsin