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At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2016

Iterative ecological forecasting: Needs, opportunities, and challenges

A fundamental environmental challenge facing humanity in the 21st century and beyond is predicting the impacts of global environmental change. This challenge is complicated by the fact that we live on a non-stationary, unreplicated planet that is rapidly moving outside the envelope of natural variability into an historical non-analog world. In other words, while the past helps inform us about how the world has worked, it may no longer be the relevant frame of reference for management, conservation, and sustainability. In this future world the two questions at the foundation of sustainability are “How are ecosystems and the services they provide going to change in the future?” and “How do human decisions affect this trajectory?” These are, at their heart, questions about ecological forecasting.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2013

Serious games experiment toward agent-based simulation

We evaluate the potential for serious games to be used as a scientifically based decision-support product that supports the United States Geological Survey’s (USGS) mission--to provide integrated, unbiased scientific information that can make a substantial contribution to societal well-being for a wide variety of complex environmental challenges. Serious or pedagogical games are an engaging way to educate decisionmakers and stakeholders about environmental challenges that are usefully informed by natural and social scientific information and knowledge and can be designed to promote interactive learning and exploration in the face of large uncertainties, divergent values, and complex situations. We developed two serious games that use challenging environmental-planning issues to demonstrate and investigate the potential contributions of serious games to inform regional-planning decisions. Delta Skelta is a game emulating long-term integrated environmental planning in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, California, that incorporates natural hazards (flooding and earthquakes) and consequences for California water supplies amidst conflicting water interests. Age of Ecology is a game that simulates interactions between economic and ecologic processes, as well as natural hazards while implementing agent-based modeling. The content of these games spans the USGS science mission areas related to water, ecosystems, natural hazards, land use, and climate change. We describe the games, reflect on design and informational aspects, and comment on their potential usefulness. During the process of developing these games, we identified various design trade-offs involving factual information, strategic thinking, game-winning criteria, elements of fun, number and type of players, time horizon, and uncertainty. We evaluate the two games in terms of accomplishments and limitations. Overall, we demonstrated the potential for these games to usefully represent scientific information within challenging environmental and ecosystem-management contexts and to provide an interactive way of learning about the complexity of interactions between people and natural systems. Further progress on the use of pedagogical games to fulfill the USGS mission will require collaboration among scientists, game developers, educators, and stakeholders. We conclude that as the USGS positions itself to communicate and convey the results of multiple science strategies, including natural-resource security and sustainability, pedagogical game development and agent-based modeling offer a means to (1) establish interdisciplinary and collaborative teams with a focused integrated outcome; (2) contribute to the modeling of interaction, feedback, and adaptation of ecosystems; and (3) enable social learning through a broadly appealing and increasingly sophisticated medium.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2017

The evolution of different maternal investment strategies in two closely related desert vertebrates

We compared egg size phenotypes and tested several predictions from the optimal egg size (OES) and bet-hedging theories in two North American desert-dwelling sister tortoise taxa, Gopherus agassizii and G. morafkai , that inhabit different climate spaces: relatively unpredictable and more predictable climate spaces, respectively. Observed patterns in both species differed from the predictions of OES in several ways. Mean egg size increased with maternal body size in both species. Mean egg size was inversely related to clutch order in G. agassizii , a strategy more consistent with the within-generation hypothesis arising out of bet-hedging theory or a constraint in egg investment due to resource availability, and contrary to theories of density dependence, which posit that increasing hatchling competition from later season clutches should drive selection for larger eggs. We provide empirical evidence that one species, G. agassizii , employs a bet-hedging strategy that is a combination of two different bet-hedging hypotheses. Additionally, we found some evidence for G. morafkai employing a conservative bet-hedging strategy. (e.g., lack of intra- and interclutch variation in egg size relative to body size). Our novel adaptive hypothesis suggests the possibility that natural selection favors smaller offspring in late-season clutches because they experience a more benign environment or less energetically challenging environmental conditions (i.e., winter) than early clutch progeny, that emerge under harsher and more energetically challenging environmental conditions (i.e., summer). We also discuss alternative hypotheses of sexually antagonistic selection, which arise from the trade-offs of son versus daughter production that might have different optima depending on clutch order and variation in temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) among clutches. Resolution of these hypotheses will require long-term data on fitness of sons versus daughters as a function of incubation environment, data as yet unavailable for any species with TSD.

Arizona, California↗
USGS2015

Integrated Environmental Modelling: Human decisions, human challenges

Integrated Environmental Modelling (IEM) is an invaluable tool for understanding the complex, dynamic ecosystems that house our natural resources and control our environments. Human behaviour affects the ways in which the science of IEM is assembled and used for meaningful societal applications. In particular, human biases and heuristics reflect adaptation and experiential learning to issues with frequent, sharply distinguished, feedbacks. Unfortunately, human behaviour is not adapted to the more diffusely experienced problems that IEM typically seeks to address. Twelve biases are identified that affect IEM (and science in general). These biases are supported by personal observations and by the findings of behavioural scientists. A process for critical analysis is proposed that addresses some human challenges of IEM and solicits explicit description of (1) represented processes and information, (2) unrepresented processes and information, and (3) accounting for, and cognizance of, potential human biases. Several other suggestions are also made that generally complement maintaining attitudes of watchful humility, open-mindedness, honesty and transparent accountability. These suggestions include (1) creating a new area of study in the behavioural biogeosciences, (2) using structured processes for engaging the modelling and stakeholder communities in IEM, and (3) using ‘red teams’ to increase resilience of IEM constructs and use.

Geological Society of London Special Publications↗
USGS2015

Invasive Species Science Branch: research and management tools for controlling invasive species

Invasive, nonnative species of plants, animals, and disease organisms adversely affect the ecosystems they enter. Like “biological wildfires,” they can quickly spread and affect nearly all terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Invasive species have become one of the greatest environmental challenges of the 21st century in economic, environmental, and human health costs, with an estimated effect in the United States of more than $120 billion per year. Managers of the Department of the Interior and other public and private lands often rank invasive species as their top resource management problem. The Invasive Species Science Branch of the Fort Collins Science Center provides research and technical assistance relating to management concerns for invasive species, including understanding how these species are introduced, identifying areas vulnerable to invasion, forecasting invasions, and developing control methods. To disseminate this information, branch scientists are developing platforms to share invasive species information with DOI cooperators, other agency partners, and the public. From these and other data, branch scientists are constructing models to understand and predict invasive species distributions for more effective management. The branch also has extensive herpetological and population biology expertise that is applied to harmful reptile invaders such as the Brown Treesnake on Guam and Burmese Python in Florida.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2019

Columbia Environmental Research Center

The U.S. Geological Survey Columbia Environmental Research Center performs research to solve challenging environmental problems related to contaminants and habitat alterations in aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. The research is interdisciplinary and pursued through partnerships within the U.S. Geological Survey and with national, international, state, and local agencies; nongovernmental organizations; and universities. Research is prioritized to provide science to the U.S. Department of the Interior and other natural resource management agencies to inform rehabilitation of degraded habitats and imperiled fish and wildlife populations. The Columbia Environmental Research Center was established in 1966 in Columbia, Missouri, as the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s Fish Pesticide Research Laboratory; the Columbia Environmental Research Center was incorporated into the U.S. Geological Survey in 1996. The U.S. Geological Survey’s staff of 130 includes 90 scientists of which one-half have advanced degrees in ecology, toxicology, biology, biochemistry, chemistry, hydrology, geology, and information technology.

Missouri↗
USGS2019

Potential sea level rise for the Chitimacha Tribe of Louisiana

Situated in the Mississippi Alluvial Plain of the Gulf Coast Prairie Landscape Conservation Cooperative (GCP LCC), the Chitimacha Tribe is one of four federally recognized tribes in Louisiana. The Tribal seat, trust lands/ reservation, and adjacent Tribal owned lands are located near Charenton, Louisiana, totaling nearly 1,000 acres. The Chitimacha, with a population of approximately 1,400 people, are currently impacted by storm surge, which is expected to increase with climate change. The additional stress from storms will likewise increase the vulnerability to catastrophic impact in the event of a breach in the Atchafalaya Basin Spillway levee. A collaborative effort between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Chitimacha Tribe has been initiated to provide resources and expertise to increase the Tribe’s ability to prevent, plan, and prepare for these environmental challenges. By enhancing technical skills, providing access to environmental data, and increasing awareness of environmental issues, the Chitimacha will be better prepared to plan and adapt to the environmental impacts facing their lands related to land use and climate change. For this project, USGS researchers asked how Chitimacha Tribal Lands might be impacted by future sea level rise scenario projections. These models illustrate some flooding within the northernmost boundary of Chitimacha Tribal Lands.

Louisiana↗
USGS2013

Automated quantitative micro-mineralogical characterization for environmental applications

Characterization of ore and waste-rock material using automated quantitative micro-mineralogical techniques (e.g., QEMSCAN® and MLA) has the potential to complement traditional acid-base accounting and humidity cell techniques when predicting acid generation and metal release. These characterization techniques, which most commonly are used for metallurgical, mineral-processing, and geometallurgical applications, can be broadly applied throughout the mine-life cycle to include numerous environmental applications. Critical insights into mineral liberation, mineral associations, particle size, particle texture, and mineralogical residence phase(s) of environmentally important elements can be used to anticipate potential environmental challenges. Resources spent on initial characterization result in lower uncertainties of potential environmental impacts and possible cost savings associated with remediation and closure. Examples illustrate mineralogical and textural characterization of fluvial tailings material from the upper Arkansas River in Colorado.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2016

Using science-policy integration to improve ecosystem science and inform decision-making: Lessons from U.S. LTERs

This Special Session took place on 12 August 2015 at the 100th Meeting of the Ecological Society of America in Baltimore, Maryland, and was conceived of and coordinated by the Science Policy Exchange. The Science Policy Exchange (SPE) is a boundary- spanning organization established to work at the interface of science and policy to confront pressing environmental challenges . SPE was created as a collaborative of six research institutions to increase the impact of science on environmental decisions. This session was organized by Marissa Weiss and co- organized by Pamela Templer, Kathleen Fallon Lambert, Jill Baron, Charles Driscoll, and David Foster. Along the theme of ESA ’ s Centennial meeting, the group of presenters represented collectively more than 100 years of experience in integration of science, policy, and outreach.

Bulletin of the Ecological Society of America↗
USGS2025

Shallow geologic framework of the Mississippi Sound and the potential for sediment resources

The Mississippi Sound, an estuarine environment located between the mainland and barrier islands bordering the northern Gulf of America (formerly the Gulf of Mexico), serves as a vital ecosystem for the States of Mississippi and Alabama. Spanning approximately 100 kilometers from east to west and covering 1,400 square kilometers, the sound is home to marine industry and ports, and its shallow and brackish waters sustain a diverse array of marine life. Barrier islands along the southern edge of the sound separate the microtidal estuary from the Gulf of America. This protection from gulf wave action mediates current flow within the sound, resulting in predominantly fine-grained sediment deposition along the seafloor. This study, conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, provides insight on fluvial and tidal processes spanning the past 5,000 years. The report synthesizes existing research to provide a comprehensive overview of the sound geology, from Pleistocene origins to present-day morphology, and utilizes high-resolution single channel seismic profiles and sediment data to identify and map sedimentary deposits and morphologic features at and below the seafloor. Despite its ecological significance, the Mississippi Sound faces environmental challenges, including water-quality issues, habitat degradation, storm-induced erosion, and the ongoing threats of sea-level rise and environmental changes. This study uses the present-day understanding of the sound's geology to inform coastal management decisions, hazard assessment, and potential mineral resources.

Louisiana, Mississippi↗
USGS2019

Geological and geophysical data for a three-dimensional view—Inside the San Juan and Silverton Calderas, Southern Rocky Mountains Volcanic Field, Silverton, Colorado

Introduction The San Juan-Silverton caldera complex located near Silverton, Colorado, in the Southern Rocky Mountains volcanic field is an ideal natural laboratory for furthering the understanding of shallow-to-deep volcanic-related mineral systems. Recent advances in geophysical data processing and three-dimensional (3D) model construction will help to characterize shallow properties important for understanding surface water and groundwater quality issues and will also improve knowledge of deep geological structures that may have been conduits for hydrothermal fluids that formed mineral deposits. The study has general applications to mineral resource assessments in other areas of the world and to identifying possible groundwater flow paths and associated geochemistry important in abandoned mine lands cleanup. Silverton, Colorado, is the site of a spectacular succession of igneous rocks that formed beginning about 35 million years ago (Ma). Base metals (copper, lead, and zinc) and precious metals (silver and gold) mined from the late 1870s to 1991 owe their existence to a 25-million-year cycle of igneous activity. The presence of economic, base, and precious metal deposits within a complex geological setting were largely responsible for stimulating studies by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducted during the early 20th century. The focus of investigations in the late 20th and 21st centuries have broadened in scope to include abandoned mine lands (AML) investigations. The legacy of hard rock mining in headwater catchment areas caused environmental challenges for local communities and downstream water resource users. The Gold King Mine, located a few kilometers north of Silverton, illustrates the potential environmental effects of abandoned mines. On August 5, 2015, during reclamation efforts at the Gold King Mine, a breach of collapsed workings sent approximately 3 million gallons of acidic and metal-rich mine water into the upper Animas River, a tributary to the Colorado River Basin. Mining-related sources of metals and acidity add to geological sources of metals in surface water and groundwater. Weathering processes of altered and mineralized rock have been a source of acid rock drainage that have been ongoing for millennia.

Colorado↗
USGS2022

Spatial scale selection for informing species conservation in a changing landscape

Identifying the relevant spatial scale at which species respond to features in a landscape (scale of effect) is a pressing research need as managers work to reduce biodiversity loss amid a variety of environmental challenges. Until recently, researchers often evaluated a subset of potential scales of effect inferred from previous studies in other locations, often based on different biological responses and environmental variables. These approaches, however, can create uncertainty as to whether relevant spatial scales were identified, and whether the effects of environmental variables at scale were accurately estimated. Identifying scales of effect is particularly relevant for the greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ), a sagebrush-obligate species of conservation concern requiring large areas of intact sagebrush cover ( Artemisia spp.) for habitat. We demonstrate the application of a scale selection approach that jointly estimates the scale of effect and the effect of sagebrush cover on trends in population size using counts from 584 sage-grouse leks in southwestern Wyoming (2003–2019) and annual estimates of sagebrush cover from a remote sensing product. From this approach, we estimated a positive effect of mean sagebrush cover with a 95% probability that the scale of effect occurred within 5.02 km of leks. In an average year, we found that lower levels of sagebrush cover within these estimated scales could support increasing trends in sage-grouse population size when populations were small, but higher levels of sagebrush cover were needed to sustain growing populations when populations were larger. With standardized monitoring and annual estimates of vegetation from remote sensing, this scale selection approach can be applied to identify relevant scales for other populations, species, and biological responses such as demography and movement.

Wyoming↗
USGS2022

Perspectives on challenges and opportunities at the restoration-policy interface in the U.S.A.

As we advance into the United Nations Decade on Ecosystem Restoration, understanding the relationship between science, management, and policy is increasingly important given the paucity of research evaluating the ability of existing policy to address contemporary environmental challenges. Despite their inherent interdependence, restoration ecology as a scientific discipline, ecological restoration as a practice, and the policies driving restoration efforts do not always represent a unified force. Accenting the policies and practices within the United States, we present our perspective on challenges associated with this disunion, including those linked to social dimensions of restoration and limitations associated with existing policy. We provide a review of existing federal policy in the United States and synthesize suggestions that have emerged in the literature to fortify connections between restoration science and policy. We also describe social challenges to meeting restoration goals, including barriers surrounding power dynamics, trust, and communication, as well as divergent incentives, perspectives, and values. We propose potential solutions that exist in transdisciplinary collaboration and knowledge sharing, and evidence-based, balanced decision-making that equally considers varying perspectives. With the understanding that current conservation practices are not enough to mitigate environmental degradation, we focus on streamlining problem-solving strategies to support restoration and face the widespread ecological issues of today.

Restoration Ecology↗
USGS2007

Short Course Introduction to Quantitative Mineral Resource Assessments

This is an abbreviated text supplementing the content of three sets of slides used in a short course that has been presented by the author at several workshops. The slides should be viewed in the order of (1) Introduction and models, (2) Delineation and estimation, and (3) Combining estimates and summary. References cited in the slides are listed at the end of this text. The purpose of the three-part form of mineral resource assessments discussed in the accompanying slides is to make unbiased quantitative assessments in a format needed in decision-support systems so that consequences of alternative courses of action can be examined. The three-part form of mineral resource assessments was developed to assist policy makers evaluate the consequences of alternative courses of action with respect to land use and mineral-resource development. The audience for three-part assessments is a governmental or industrial policy maker, a manager of exploration, a planner of regional development, or similar decision-maker. Some of the tools and models presented here will be useful for selection of exploration sites, but that is a side benefit, not the goal. To provide unbiased information, we recommend the three-part form of mineral resource assessments where general locations of undiscovered deposits are delineated from a deposit type's geologic setting, frequency distributions of tonnages and grades of well-explored deposits serve as models of grades and tonnages of undiscovered deposits, and number of undiscovered deposits are estimated probabilistically by type. The internally consistent descriptive, grade and tonnage, deposit density, and economic models used in the design of the three-part form of assessments reduce the chances of biased estimates of the undiscovered resources. What and why quantitative resource assessments: The kind of assessment recommended here is founded in decision analysis in order to provide a framework for making decisions concerning mineral resources under conditions of uncertainty. What this means is that we start with the question of what kinds of questions is the decision maker trying to resolve and what forms of information would aid in resolving these questions. Some applications of mineral resource assessments: To plan and guide exploration programs, to assist in land use planning, to plan the location of infrastructure, to estimate mineral endowment, and to identify deposits that present special environmental challenges. Why not just rank prospects / areas? Need for financial analysis, need for comparison with other land uses, need for comparison with distant tracts of land, need to know how uncertain the estimates are, need for consideration of economic and environmental consequences of possible development. Our goal is to provide unbiased information useful to decision-makers.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2021

Climate change risks and adaptation options for Madagascar

Climate change poses an increasing threat to achieving development goals and is often considered in development plans and project designs. However, there have been challenges in the effective implementation of those plans, particularly in the sustained engagement of the communities to undertake adaptive actions, but also due to insufficient scientific information to inform management decisions. Madagascar is a country rich in natural capital and biodiversity but with high levels of poverty, food insecurity, population growth, and exploitation of natural resources. The country faces development and environmental challenges that may be intensified by climate change. The objective of this review is to provide a synthesis of the best-available information regarding climate change impacts on sectoral interests in Madagascar. To do this, we conducted a review of recent literature and conducted formal discussions with development agencies, non-government organizations (NGOs), and other stakeholders. Climate risks in Madagascar include increasing temperatures, reduced and more variable precipitation, more frequent droughts, more intense cyclones, and rising sea levels. We synthesized the observed and projected impacts of climate change on water resources, agriculture, human health, coastal ecosystems, fisheries, and terrestrial ecosystems and ecosystem services, and we discuss ongoing climate adaptation and mitigation activities. Because sectoral challenges and opportunities are linked, coordination among development organizations would be beneficial as they create new climate adaptation and mitigation initiatives.

Ecology and Society↗
USGS2025

A critical perspective on the Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry’s adherence to founding principles—Opportunities for the future

The Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC) is a global organization whose mission is the advancement of environmental science and the promotion of science-informed decision making. On SETAC’s 45th anniversary, the following question was raised: Are the 1979 founding principles of SETAC, multidisciplinary approaches to solving environmental problems, multisector engagement and scientific objectivity, still relevant to the fulfillment of its mission? In a special session held at the 45th Annual Meeting in Fort Worth, Texas, U.S., a critical evaluation of the founding principles was initiated by reviewing SETAC’s history and ongoing activities, and recommendations were made for the future. With few exceptions, participants appreciated SETAC’s purposeful efforts to approach challenging environmental issues through multisector balance, an approach that is unique amongst scientific societies. We recognized that scientists have biases and views of what they find important, regardless of employing organization, and that objectivity is best served by being aware of these biases and views. SETAC’s founding principles have stood the test of time and continue to provide a strong foundation for the Society’s mission, and with a few suggested improvements, will continue to be instrumental in guiding environmental science, stewardship and policy into the future. The significance of SETAC’s contribution of robust science grounded in reliable evidence and data was recognized as being especially crucial at this time of triple planetary crisis (climate change, pollution and biodiversity loss), compounded by rapid technological developments and geopolitical issues.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry↗
USGS2014

Delivering climate science about the Nation's fish, wildlife, and ecosystems: the U.S. Geological Survey National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center

Changes to the Earth’s climate—temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables—pose significant challenges to our Nation’s natural resources. Managers of land, water, and living resources require an understanding of the impacts of climate change—which exacerbate ongoing stresses such as habitat alteration and invasive species—in order to design effective response strategies. In 2008, Congress created the National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC) within the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The center was formed to address environmental challenges resulting from climate and land-use change and to provide natural resource managers with rigorous scientific information and effective tools for decision making. Located at the USGS National Headquarters in Reston, Virginia, the NCCWSC has established eight regional Department of the Interior (DOI) Climate Science Centers (CSCs) and has invested over $93 million (through fiscal year 2013) in cutting-edge climate change research.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2019

Genetically-informed seed transfer zones for Pleuraphis jamesii, Sphaeralcea parvifolia, and Sporobolus cryptandrus across the Colorado Plateau and adjacent regions

(Massatti) Introduction: The majority of native plant materials (NPMs) utilized for restoration purposes are developed for widely distributed species that provide a variety of ecosystem services (Wood et al. 2015; Butterfield et al. 2017). Disturbed ecosystems benefit from the use of appropriate NPMs, which are those that display ecological fitness at the restoration site, are compatible with conspecifics and other members of the plant community, and that do not demonstrate invasive tendencies (Jones 2013). Furthermore, the use of appropriate NPMs can help address specific environmental challenges, rejuvenate ecosystem function, and improve the delivery of ecosystem services (Hughes 2008). While many NPMs have been developed for restoration (e.g., Aubry et al. 2005), there is interest in broadening the diversity of species available and the geographic representation of sources to provide appropriate choices in relation to the characteristics of any restoration site. In addition, researchers are providing guidance to managers and practitioners regarding how best to transfer NPMs across the landscape. For example, guidance on seed transfer has been derived from genecological studies, which utilize common gardens to correlate phenotypic variation to environmental gradients (summarized in Kilkenny 2015), molecular studies, which identify putative adaptive genetic loci and infer environmental drivers of variation (Shryock et al. 2017), and climate modeling studies, which can provide guidance when species-specific data are unavailable (Bower et al. 2014; Doherty et al. 2017). All of these approaches intend to improve the long-term viability of NPMs at restoration sites, thereby improving outcomes and stretching limiting restoration resources (e.g., time and money).

Colorado Plateau↗