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Water-quality trends for selected sites and constituents in the international Red River of the North Basin, Minnesota and North Dakota, United States, and Manitoba, Canada, 1970–2017

A comprehensive study to evaluate water-quality trends, while considering natural hydroclimatic variability, in the Red River of the North Basin and assess water-quality conditions for the Red River of the North crossing the international boundary near Emerson, Manitoba, Canada (the binational site), was completed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the International Joint Commission, North Dakota Department of Environmental Quality, and Minnesota Pollution Control Agency and in collaboration with Manitoba Sustainable Development and Environment and Climate Change Canada. The international Red River of the North Basin encompasses 3 U.S. States (South Dakota, North Dakota, and Minnesota) and 1 Canadian Province (Manitoba). Water quality in the Red River of the North Basin is of concern for both Federal governments and State and Provincial governments. Water-quality objectives have been previously established for selected dissolved ions and recently (2019) proposed for selected nutrients for the binational site. In the current (2020) study, water-quality data from State, Provincial, and Federal agencies in the United States and Canada for sites in the Red River of the North Basin from 1970 to 2017 were compiled and used for trend analysis. Trend analysis using a water-quality dataset from multiple agencies that collect water-quality data for various objectives presented multiple challenges. The trend-analysis approach was able to accommodate differences in water-quality data caused by field-collection and laboratory-analytical method differences, disparities in sampling frequencies, and spatial and temporal gaps in data. Most of these challenges were overcome by the statistical tool, R–QWTREND, which identifies trends in concentration unrelated to variability in streamflow. The integrated basin approach used in the current study, combined with comparing current data trends with historical trends, provided valuable insights into understanding how water quality is changing spatially (34 sites analyzed for a recent period, 2000–15) and temporally (5 sites analyzed for a 45-year historical period, 1970–2015) within the Red River of the North Basin. One of the most consistent spatial and temporal changes observed in the current study was increasing concentrations of sulfate among tributary and main-stem sites since 2000. For some sites, increases were detected starting as early as 1985. Total dissolved solids and chloride concentrations had spatial and temporal patterns like sulfate. Although R–QWTREND removes the variability in constituent concentration caused by natural streamflow variability, all variability in sulfate caused by hydroclimatic variability may not be captured because of changes in hydrologic pathways and changes in the contributions of sulfate from various natural sources. Nutrient concentrations demonstrated less consistent spatial and temporal changes than sulfate, and changes in nutrient concentrations were assumed to be more closely tied to human-induced rather than natural changes. Nitrate-plus-nitrite concentrations were mostly increasing in the upper Red River of the North subbasin, and for nitrate plus nitrite and total nitrogen, the Sheyenne River subbasin had consistent decreasing concentrations. Since 2000, total phosphorus has decreased in the upper Red River of the North subbasin, but total phosphorus concentration has increased for sites in the lower Red River of the North subbasin, and for some main-stem sites, concentrations have been increasing since 1985. Unlike sulfate, the pattern in historical trends for total phosphorus for the main-stem sites differed from tributary sites, indicating that human-induced changes affected tributaries and main-stem sites differently. The more detailed evaluation of flow-averaged water-quality conditions for the binational site provided an understanding of how loads have changed over time and what proportion of the year and season concentrations are expected to exceed water-quality objectives. In a basin with highly variable streamflow like the Red River of the North, the trend in flow-averaged load (assuming streamflow conditions are the same year after year) provided a robust measure of change over time. Increasing concentrations of sulfate, chloride, total dissolved solids, and total phosphorus since 1985 for the binational site resulted in longer periods of exceedance of water-quality objectives per year occurring over time. For total nitrogen, decreasing concentrations resulted in shorter periods of exceedance per year during 1980 to 2015, but concentrations were still expected to exceed the water-quality objective about half the year. Periods of when exceedances were likely to occur during the year were affected by the source and transport mechanisms of the constituent. Trend results from this effort identified how water quality has changed across the basin, and further investigation would help to identify causes for the trends observed here. Information from the current study provides a basis for future trend attribution studies, evaluation of water-quality objectives, and development of comprehensive strategies for reducing nutrients to desired targets and establishes a baseline for tracking future progress in the Red River of the North Basin.

Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Manitoba

Banking on strong rural livelihoods and the sustainable use of natural capital in post-conflict Colombia

In post-conflict Colombia, the government has prioritized resettlement of displaced people through development of strong rural livelihoods and the sustainable use of natural capital. In this paper, we considered government proposals for expanding payment for ecosystem services (PES) and sustainable silvopastoral systems, and private-sector investment in habitat banking. We coupled the Integrated Economic-Environmental Model (IEEM) with spatially explicit land use and land cover change and ecosystem services models to assess the potential impacts of these programs through the lens of wealth and sustainable economic development. This innovative workflow integrates dynamic endogenous feedbacks between natural capital, ecosystem services and the economic system, and can be applied to other country contexts. Results show that PES and habitat banking programs are strong investment propositions (Net Present Value of US$4.4 and $4.9 billion, respectively), but only when moving beyond conventional economic analysis to include non-market ecosystem services. Where a portfolio investment approach is taken and PES is implemented with sustainable silvopastoral systems, investment returns would reach US$7.1 billion. This paper provides a detailed evaluation of the benefits of investing in rural livelihoods and enhancing Colombia’s natural capital base, with empirical evidence to inform the spatial targeting of policies to maximize economic, environmental and social outcomes.

Environment, Development, and Sustainability

Linking fire and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals

Fire is a ubiquitous natural disturbance that affects 3–4% of the Earth's surface each year. It is a tool used by humans for land clearing and burning of agricultural wastes. The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) do not explicitly mention fire, though many of the Goals are affected by the beneficial and adverse consequences of fires on ecosystem services. There are at least three compelling reasons to include a fire perspective in the implementation of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. The first reason relates to the stated vision of the United Nations 2030 Agenda to protect the environment. In order to achieve environmental protection during sustainable development activities, it is necessary to understand and plan for the effects of disturbances, in this case fire, on ecosystem services. The second reason is that fires produce emissions with regional and global impacts on air quality and rainfall patterns. Fires contribute to global warming though the release greenhouse gases, primarily CO 2 , and black carbon, identified as a SLCP (short-lived climate pollutant). The third reason is that fire is one of several complex processes that lead to land degradation across the globe. Opportunities exist to incorporate a fire perspective into sustainable development projects or approaches. Two examples are highlighted here. Transdisciplinary communication and collaboration are needed to address the complex issues related to fire, and to climate and land use change.

Science of the Total Environment

Assessing the effect of coral reef restoration location on coastal flood hazard along the San Juan Coastline, Puerto Rico

Coastal resilience has become a pressing global issue due to the growing vulnerability of coastlines to the effects of climate change. Nature-based solutions have emerged as a promising approach to coastal protection to not only enhance coastal resilience, but also restore critical ecosystems. Coral reef restoration has the potential to provide ecosystem services benefits; however, there are still key uncertainties in linking restoration design to reductions in coastal flood hazard under current and future climate conditions. In this study, we applied one-dimensional and two-dimensional numerical coastal engineering models, calibrated and validated using field data, to evaluate the effectiveness of coral restoration scenarios on coastal waves, water levels, and flooding along the coast of San Juan, Puerto Rico, U.S.A. Model results indicate a small reduction in maximum water levels under the proposed restoration scenarios. This underscores the importance of these endeavors, not only for ecological preservation but also for preventing further reef deterioration. Such preservation is essential for mitigating the increased coastal risks anticipated in the future. Results from this study provide information to guide policymakers and coastal managers in making informed decisions on viable restoration project design options. By systematically evaluating how restoration location impacts coastal flood hazards, communities can develop and implement proactive strategies to mitigate flood-related risk. In addition, by restoring coral reefs, communities can contribute to environmental preservation while ensuring sustainable development and protection of coastal environments.

Puerto Rico, San Juan coastline

Sustainability trade-offs at the nexus of solar energy, agriculture, and biodiversity

A rapid transition to renewable energy is necessary for achieving global decarbonization targets, but siting conflicts, particularly beyond the built environment, remain a key barrier to sustainable development. At the same time, climate-induced pressures on biodiversity intensify the socio-ecological trade-offs within the energy-agriculture-biodiversity nexus. Using New York State as a case study, we assess the geographic implications of utility-scale solar energy development under competing land-use priorities. We apply a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) optimization model to evaluate solar buildout across three distinct scenarios: minimizing cost, prioritizing agricultural preservation, and conserving biodiversity, employing a lexicographic hierarchy to enforce a strict ordering of stakeholder priorities. Results indicate that New York can meet its mid-century decarbonization goals by deploying 46,216 MW dc of solar energy, however, achieving this goal involves considerable land-use trade-offs. A cost-minimizing scenario disproportionately targets pasture and hay lands (>40,000 ha), nearly half of which overlap with grassland bird habitat and broader biodiversity areas. Prioritizing agriculture spares ∼80 % of farmland but creates potential for deforestation of over 41,000 ha. Biodiversity-conscious siting avoids ecologically sensitive areas and increases the annualized total costs by 0.17 %, indicating economic feasibility. Our findings highlight the need for spatially informed, integrative land-use strategies that reconcile climate goals with ecological and agricultural values. By linking geospatial optimization with socio-ecological criteria, this work contributes a transferable framework to inform just and ecologically responsible energy transitions in multifunctional landscapes, offering new insights into how geography can advance sustainable development.

New York

Toward sustainable environmental quality: Priority research questions for North America

Anticipating, identifying, and prioritizing strategic needs represent essential activities by research organizations. Decided benefits emerge when these pursuits engage globally important environment and health goals, including the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. To this end, horizon scanning efforts can facilitate identification of specific research needs to address grand challenges. We report and discuss 40 priority research questions following engagement of scientists and engineers in North America. These timely questions identify the importance of stimulating innovation and developing new methods, tools, and concepts in environmental chemistry and toxicology to improve assessment and management of chemical contaminants and other diverse environmental stressors. Grand challenges to achieving sustainable management of the environment are becoming increasingly complex and structured by global megatrends, which collectively challenge existing sustainable environmental quality efforts. Transdisciplinary, systems‐based approaches will be required to define and avoid adverse biological effects across temporal and spatial gradients. Similarly, coordinated research activities among organizations within and among countries are necessary to address the priority research needs reported here. Acquiring answers to these 40 research questions will not be trivial, but doing so promises to advance sustainable environmental quality in the 21st century.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry

The economics of decarbonizing Costa Rica's agriculture, forestry and other land uses sectors

In 2018, Costa Rica demonstrated its commitment to the Paris Agreement and published its Decarbonization Plan for achieving zero net emissions by the year 2050. We evaluate the impacts of the country's strategy for decarbonizing its Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Uses (AFOLU) sectors by coupling the Integrated Economic-Environmental Modeling framework with high-resolution spatial land use-land cover change and ecosystem services modeling (IEEM+ESM). Our results show that decarbonization of AFOLU would simultaneously enhance carbon storage, water purification, water regulation and erosion mitigation ecosystem services. Moreover, the positive cumulative wealth impact of decarbonization would be approximately US$7.27 billion by 2050 while lifting an additional 3810 individuals out of poverty. From a public investment perspective, decarbonization would have a fiscally neutral impact with the economic benefits sufficient in magnitude to off-set policy implementation costs and generate economic returns of over US$852 million when changes in natural capital stocks and environmental quality are considered. This application to Costa Rica is the first integrated economy-wide analysis of a growing number of decarbonization plans globally. The IEEM+ESM approach provides an integrated framework for analyzing decarbonization plans and can be used to refine AFOLU mitigation strategies to capitalize on synergies and minimize negative trade-offs across the three dimensions of wealth and sustainable economic development, namely economy, society and the environment.

Ecological Economics

Observing systems, modeling, and forecasting

Predicting harmful algal blooms (HABs) requires integrating physical, chemical, and biological data collected from observing networks and then assimilating these data into models, which are used to generate forecasts. In 2005, the Harmful Algal Research and Response: A National Environmental Science Strategy 2005-2015 (HARRNESS, 2005) made recommendations on how to improve HAB modeling and forecasting over the next decade. Key HARRNESS recommendations related to sensing, networking, and modeling HABs included: ● Support the development and validation of new and improved technologies for remote cell and toxin detection, and for modeling and forecasting, ● Improve coordination of monitoring/ and modeling efforts, both at national and regional levels, ● Improve the use of networking technologies for monitoring and modeling efforts, ● Conduct sustained time series measurements of the biotic, chemical, and physical environments impacted by HABs, ● Develop food web models on the ecosystem fate and effects of toxins, ● Develop and improve species-specific models that link to physical-biological models. Here we review HAB observing, modeling, and forecasting advances and technologies and recommend research and management priorities for the next decade and beyond. Our report encompasses sensing technologies, sensor networking and data management, models and forecasts, and the paths to operationalize forecasts. Continued improvements of deployable sensors are foundational to improving early warning indicators, models, and forecasts, which are only as good as the underlying data. Sensing technology has advanced considerably in the last decade; for example, more capable fluorometric pigment sensors can track changes in bloom biomass in real-time. Additionally, automated imaging/classifying systems to identify and quantify key harmful algal (HA) taxa are being routinely deployed. However, deployable toxin sensors are available for only some HAB toxins and continue to be identified as a critical need by researchers and managers. As more and improved sensors and technologies become available, the data quality associated with each sensor needs to be assessed. Data quality encompasses the reliability, accuracy, and uncertainty associated with sensor-generated data. These data need to be of known quality so that researchers, managers, and end-users can reliably determine if the information is appropriate for their intended applications. Many of the data quality recommendations from HARRNESS (2005) are still relevant and have been reiterated within the management community. Understanding and documenting data quality, and when applicable, standardizing best practices for sensor use, continue to be recommended.

Report

International impact research and management

To be sustainable, ecotourism requires the protection of natural environments and processes both from development and operation of the tourism infrastructure, and from the activities of ecotourists within protected areas. This book chapter reviews the international literature on the study of visitor or recreation-related resource impacts with special reference to ecotourism. Four case examples are presented to characterize the geographic scope, focus, and principal findings of this recreation ecology literature and its relevance to ecotourism management. Case examples include the Cairngorms National Nature Reserve, Scotland; the Great Barrier Reef, Australia; the Central American tropics; and wildlife viewing in Kenya?s protected areas. Implications for the management of international protected areas and ecotourism resources are discussed.

Book chapter

A massive rock and ice avalanche caused the 2021 disaster at Chamoli, Indian Himalaya

On 7 Feb 2021, a catastrophic mass flow descended the Ronti Gad, Rishiganga, and Dhauliganga valleys in Chamoli, Uttarakhand, India, causing widespread devastation and severely damaging two hydropower projects. Over 200 people were killed or are missing. Our analysis of satellite imagery, seismic records, numerical model results, and eyewitness videos reveals that ~27x10 6 m 3 of rock and glacier ice collapsed from the steep north face of Ronti Peak. The rock and ice avalanche rapidly transformed into an extraordinarily large and mobile debris flow that transported boulders >20 m in diameter, and scoured the valley walls up to 220 m above the valley floor. The intersection of the hazard cascade with downvalley infrastructure resulted in a disaster, which highlights key questions about adequate monitoring and sustainable development in the Himalaya as well as other remote, high-mountain environments.

Chamoli

Interpolating a consumption variable for scaling and generalizing potential population pressure on urbanizing natural areas

Measures of population pressure, referring in general to the stress upon the environment by human consumption of resources, are imperative for environmental sustainability studies and management. Development based on resource consumption is the predominant factor of population pressure. This paper presents a spatial model of population pressure by linking consumption associated with regional urbanism and ecosystem services. Maps representing relative geographic degree and extent of natural resource consumption and degree and extent of impacts on surrounding areas are new, and this research represents the theoretical research toward this goal. With development, such maps offer a visualization tool for planners of various services, amenities for people, and conservation planning for ecologist. Urbanization is commonly generalized by census numbers or impervious surface area. The potential geographical extent of urbanism encompasses the environmental resources of the surrounding region that sustain cities. This extent is interpolated using kriging of a variable based on population wealth data from the U.S. Census Bureau. When overlayed with land-use/land-cover data, the results indicate that the greatest estimates of population pressure fall within mixed forest areas. Mixed forest areas result from the spread of cedar woods in previously disturbed areas where further disturbance is then suppressed. Low density areas, such as suburbanization and abandoned farmland are characteristic of mixed forest areas.

Missouri

Sustaining Environmental Capital Initiative summary report

Federal agencies need credible scientific information to determine the production and value of ecosystem services in an efficient and timely manner. The U.S. Geological Survey addresses this scientific information need through the Sustaining Environmental Capital Initiative project. The project has relied on U.S. Geological Survey expertise related to water, fisheries, advanced modeling, and economics and other social sciences to conduct eight case studies across a range of environment types, including water-based environments, deserts, sagebrush ecosystems, floodplains, and forests. The Sustaining Environmental Capital Initiative also supported the development and expansion of four tools with the intent of adding content and usability for partners’ decision-making needs. The tools are the Natural Value Resource Center, Benefit Transfer Toolkit, Riverine Environmental Flow Decision Support System, and Artificial Intelligence for Ecosystem Services modeling platform.

Open-File Report

Potential interactions between birds and floating photovoltaic solar energy: Spatially informed species vulnerabilities, techno-ecological risks, and sustainability trade-offs

Floating photovoltaics (floating solar panels; FPV) can reduce the negative impacts of solar energy development in terrestrial environments, but their effects on freshwater ecosystems remain poorly understood. We examined potential FPV interactions with avian biodiversity, using previously modeled technical potential of FPV in the northeastern United States. We developed a vulnerability index based on avian species’: (i) morphological traits, (ii) level of conservation concern, and (iii) habitat requirements. Using eBird participatory science data, we assessed the risk of FPV to 291 species of birds occurring at FPV-suitable waterbodies based on their vulnerability index and estimated relative abundance at each location. The greatest risk of FPVs to birds was associated with waterbodies near the Atlantic coast and Great Lakes, and most (80%) of these high-risk waterbodies were smaller waterbodies. Because the avian risk at FPV-suitable waterbodies was not correlated with estimated energy generation, reducing risk to birds might not require energy trade-offs. Moreover, avoiding FPV installations at waterbodies predicted to pose high risk to birds is likely to return social and recreational benefits while minimizing risk of biofouling. Our analysis provides a framework for proactively evaluating risk, reducing potential adverse impacts of FPV to birds, and identifying cobenefits of sustainable FPV siting across waterscapes.

Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachuse

Sustaining Rocky Mountain landscapes: Science, policy and management for the Crown of the Continent ecosystem

Prato and Fagre offer the first systematic, multi-disciplinary assessment of the challenges involved in managing the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem ( CCE), an area of the Rocky Mountains that includes northwestern Montana, southwestern Alberta, and southeastern British Columbia. The spectacular landscapes, extensive recreational options, and broad employment opportunities of the CCE have made it one of the fastest growing regions in the United States and Canada, and have lead to a shift in its economic base from extractive resource industries to service-oriented recreation and tourism industries. In the process, however, the amenities and attributes that draw people to this “New West” are under threat. Pastoral scenes are disappearing as agricultural lands and other open spaces are converted to residential uses, biodiversity is endangered by the fragmentation of fish and wildlife habitats, and many areas are experiencing a decline in air and water quality. Sustaining Rocky Mountain Landscapes provides a scientific basis for communities to develop policies for managing the growth and economic transformation of the CCE without sacrificing the quality of life and environment for which the land is renowned. This forthcoming edited volume focuses on five aspects of sustaining mountain landscapes in the CCE and similar regions in the Rocky Mountains. The five aspects are: 1) how social, economic, demo graphic and environmental forces are transforming ecosystem structure and function, 2) trends in use and conditions for human and environmental resources, 3) activating science, policy and education to enhance sustainable landscape management, 4) challenges to sustainable management of public and private lands, and 5) future prospects for achieving sustainable landscapes.

Idaho, Montana

Economic Growth and Landscape Change

Prato and Fagre offer the first systematic, multi-disciplinary assessment of the challenges involved in managing the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem (CCE), an area of the Rocky Mountains that includes northwestern Montana, southwestern Alberta, and southeastern British Columbia. The spectacular landscapes, extensive recreational options, and broad employment opportunities of the CCE have made it one of the fastest growing regions in the United States and Canada, and have lead to a shift in its economic base from extractive resource industries to service-oriented recreation and tourism industries. In the process, however, the amenities and attributes that draw people to this “New West” are under threat. Pastoral scenes are disappearing as agricultural lands and other open spaces are converted to residential uses, biodiversity is endangered by the fragmentation of fish and wildlife habitats, and many areas are experiencing a decline in air and water quality. Sustaining Rocky Mountain Landscapes provides a scientific basis for communities to develop policies for managing the growth and economic transformation of the CCE without sacrificing the quality of life and environment for which the land is renowned. This forthcoming edited volume focuses on five aspects of sustaining mountain landscapes in the CCE and similar regions in the Rocky Mountains. The five aspects are: 1) how social, economic, demographic and environmental forces are transforming ecosystem structure and function, 2) trends in use and conditions for human and environmental resources, 3) activating science, policy and education to enhance sustainable landscape management, 4) challenges to sustainable management of public and private lands, and 5) future prospects for achieving sustainable landscapes.

Book chapter

Baseline data for evaluating development trajectory and provision of ecosystem services of created fringing oyster reefs in Vermilion Bay, Louisiana

Understanding the time frame in which ecosystem services (that is, water quality maintenance, shoreline protection, habitat provision) are expected to be provided is important when restoration projects are being designed and implemented. Restoration of three-dimensional shell habitats in coastal Louisiana and elsewhere presents a valuable and potentially self-sustaining approach to providing shoreline protection, enhancing nekton habitat, and providing water quality maintenance. As with most restoration projects, the development of expected different ecosystem services often occurs over varying time frames, with some services provided immediately and others taking longer to develop. This project was designed initially to compare the provision and development of ecosystem services by created fringing shoreline reefs in subtidal and intertidal environments in Vermilion Bay, Louisiana. Specifically, the goal was to test the null hypothesis that over time, the oyster recruitment and development of a sustainable oyster reef community would be similar at both intertidal and subtidal reef bases, and these sustainable reefs would in time provide similar shoreline stabilization, nekton habitat, and water quality services over similar time frames. Because the ecosystem services hypothesized to be provided by oyster reefs reflect long-term processes, fully testing the above-stated null hypothesis requires a longer-time frame than this project allowed. As such, this project was designed to provide the initial data on reef development and provision of ecosystem services, to identify services that may develop immediately, and to provide baseline data to allow for longer-term follow up studies tracking reef development over time. Unfortunately, these initially created reef bases (subtidal, intertidal) were not constructed as planned because of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in April 2010, which resulted in reef duplicates being created 6 months apart. Further confounding the project were additional construction and restoration projects along the same shorelines which occurred between 2011 and June 2012. Because of constant activity near and around the reefs and continuing construction, development trajectories could not be compared among reef types at this time. This report presents the data collected at the sites over 3 years (2010–2012), describing only conditions and trends. In addition, these data provide an extensive and detailed dataset documenting initial conditions and initial ecosystem changes which will prove valuable in future data collection and analyses of reef development at this site. Data collection characterized the local water quality conditions (salinity, temperature, total suspended sediments, dissolved oxygen, chlorophyll a), adjacent marsh vegetation, soils, and shoreline position along the project shoreline at Vermilion Bay. During the study, marsh vegetation and soil characteristics were similar across the study area and did not change over time. Shoreline movement indicated shoreline loss at all sites, which varied by reefs. Water quality conditions followed expected seasonal patterns for this region, and no significant nonseasonal changes were measured throughout the study period. Despite oyster recruitment in fall 2010 and 2011, few if any oysters survived from the 2010 year class to 2012. At the last sampling of this project, some oysters recruited in fall 2011 survived through 2012, resulting in an on-reef density of 18.3 ± 2.1 individuals per square meter (mean size: 85.6 ± 2.2 millimeters). Because project goals were to compare reef development and provision of ecosystem services over time, as well as many of the processes identified for monitoring reflect long-term processes, results and data are presented only qualitatively, and trends or observations should be interpreted cautiously at this point. Measurable system responses to reef establishment require more time than was available for this study. These data provide a valuable baseline that can be ultimately used to help inform site selections for future restoration projects as well to further investigate the development trajectories of ecosystem provision of created reefs in this region.

Louisiana

Pilot framework for fish habitat assessments across tidal and non tidal waters in the Patuxent River Basin

As part of the 2014 Chesapeake Bay Watershed Agreement, all Bay States and the District of Columbia have committed to improving the condition of the Bay, which includes a goal to achieve sustainable fisheries. One outcome under that broad goal is improved effectiveness of fish habitat conservation and preservation efforts. In support of that outcome, the U.S. Geological Survey Eastern Ecological Science Center (USGS-EESC) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association’s National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NOAA-NCCOS) are actively developing datasets, methods, and analyses to conduct fish habitat assessments in the Chesapeake Bay watershed, guided by recommendations from a regional stakeholder workshop held by the Chesapeake Bay Program’s (CBP) Fish Habitat Action Team (FHAT) in 2018. The joint USGS and NOAA team has been collaborating on methods for conducting inland and estuarine assessments and exploring whether a seamless headwater to estuary assessment could be developed. The goals of this assessment are to benefit both State and Federal fisheries managers, help advance fisheries science, and provide beneficial information for the public. While past national and regional assessments (e.g. the National Fish Habitat Partnership National Assessment) treated inland and estuarine fish habitat conditions separately due to differences in environments, GIS data representation, and data availability, a seamless habitat assessment could be of value for a broad range of stakeholders as many fish species, several of which are invasive or under federal jurisdiction, use habitats across both inland and estuarine waters. This project developed a pilot framework, explored and tested methods necessary for a finer scale, seamless assessment across both inland and estuarine waters, and demonstrated its use. Although there was interest by the CBP FHAT for the generation of a Baywide fish habitat assessment that spanned tidal salt, tidal fresh, warm non-tidal and cold non-tidal waters, there are a myriad of implementation details and considerations around conducting a Baywide assessment across all four of these general habitat areas. Therefore, the practical need to conduct a tributary-specific pilot assessment arose. At the beginning of this pilot process, members of the FHAT were presented with a decision matrix to choose a study basin using factors such as data availability and tributary size. FHAT members chose the Patuxent River basin, which has been relatively well sampled and studied. Several spatial frameworks were considered before selection of an inclusive gridded framework for summary and analysis that represented inland drainage networks and landscape influences as well as estuarine bathymetry. A suite of landscape and in-water stressor variables were summarized into the framework and were largely generalized over time. In order to assess the viability of the framework, we chose to use species distribution modeling for each of the species to test the framework’s ability to predict habitat use of non-tidal resident, estuarine resident, and migratory species. Tessellated darter (Etheostoma olmstedi), American eel (Anguilla rostrata), and white perch (Morone americana) were chosen as illustrative fish species based on data availability, and differences in life history and habitat use. A nested modeling approach, which involved successive model runs at multiple scales (1000m, 100m, and 10m raster grids) was developed to examine differences in variable importance at different spatial scales and to enhance modeling efficiency. For white perch, a complementary modeling analysis was performed for variables available only in estuarine waters. For all testing, an ensemble modeling approach was conducted, using a suite of potential statistical techniques driven by model strength and variable predictive power. The statistical testing that we conducted was intended only to test the framework and modeling approach, and not to definitively predict all habitats where specific fish species might be present. The modeling we conducted to test the framework did have some limitations. For example, the spatial distribution of favorable habitat areas for white perch was likely influenced by the predominance of fish survey locations near the center channel of the river and the use of generalized in-water conditions. For all species, the use of juvenile and adult fish survey data limits the estimation of habitat use to those life stages. Despite such limitations of the data inputs and modeling approach, we found the framework could seamlessly predict fish habitat distribution across freshwater and tidal environments and integrate the influence of landscape stressors with local in-water factors. The developed framework presented to the Sustainable Fisheries Goal Implementation Team (GIT) and FHAT is informative and could potentially be used for other modeling applications in the Chesapeake Bay watershed and elsewhere. In particular the framework and modeling approach lend themselves to evaluating living resource distributions and underlying habitat conditions in shallow tidal waters and beyond, as recommended by the recent Comprehensive Evaluation of System Response (CESR) report from the Chesapeake Bay Program.

Maryland

The future of recreational fisheries: Advances in science, monitoring, management, and practice

Recreational fisheries (RF) are complex social-ecological systems that play an important role in aquatic environments while generating significant social and economic benefits around the world. The nature of RF is diverse and rapidly evolving, including the participants, their priorities and behaviors, and the related ecological impacts and social and economic benefits. RF can lead to negative ecological impacts, particularly through overexploitation of fish populations and spread of non-native species and genotypes through stocking. Hence, careful management and monitoring of RF is essential to sustain these ecologically and socioeconomically important resources. This special issue on recreational fisheries contains diverse research, syntheses, and perspectives that highlight the advances being made in RF research, monitoring, management, and practice, which we summarize here. Co-management actions are rising, often involving diverse interest groups including government and non-government organizations; applying collaborative management practices can help balance social and economic benefits with conservation targets. Technological and methodological advances are improving the ability to monitor biological, social, and economic dynamics of RF, which underpin the ability to maximize RF benefits through management actions. To ensure RF sustainability, much research focuses on the ecological aspects of RF, as well as the development of management and angling practices that reduce negative impacts on fish populations. For example, angler behavior can be influenced to conform to conservation-minded angling practices through regulations, but is often best accomplished through growing bottom-up social change movements. Anglers can also play an important role in fisheries monitoring and conservation, including providing data on fish abundance and assemblages (i.e., citizen science). The increasing impacts that growing human populations are having on the global environment are threatening many of the natural resources and ecosystem services they provide, including valuable RF. However, with careful development of research initiatives, monitoring and management, sustainable RF can generate positive outcomes for both society and natural ecosystems and help solve allocation conflicts with commercial fisheries and conservation.

Fisheries Research