Assessment of undiscovered oil and gas resources in selected Rocky Mountain provinces for the Energy Policy and Conservation Act of 2000 (EPCA 2000)
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Fact Sheet↗
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Synthetic fuels development: earth-science considerations
The current energy crisis is affecting the lives of all Americans. Continued increases in energy prices and frequent shortages are stark reminders of our growing dependence on foreign energy resources in today's energy-hungry world. A comprehensive national energy policy must consider a variety of energy resources, including synfuels, to meet future energy needs.
Monograph↗
Habitat affinities and at-sea ranging behaviors among main Hawaiian Island seabirds: Breeding seabird telemetry, 2013–2016
Recent Hawaiʻi state clean energy policy mandates and federal interest in developing offshore renewable energy resources have prompted unsolicited lease requests for offshore wind energy infrastructure (OWEI) to be located in ocean waters off Hawaiʻi. This study describing at-sea ranging behaviors for five seabirds was intended to provide new information on Hawaiian breeding seabird distribution at sea, habitat utilization, and ranging behaviors within near-island waters and throughout outer continental shelf (OCS) waters surrounding the main Hawaiian Islands (MHI). We also estimate the percentage of time the five study species spent flying at altitudes equivalent to an expected rotor-swept-zone (RSZ; 30–194 m) for an offshore wind turbine and discuss potential collision risk from OWEI to the seabirds studied here. The MHI supports important seabird breeding populations and individual seabirds can now be equipped with a wide-variety of data loggers and location tracking devices that can provide complex, high-resolution information on movement patterns at sea. In this study, we used GPS loggers and temperature-depth-recorders (TDRs) to examine the at-sea distributions and ranging behaviors of five abundantly breeding species in the MHI: Red-tailed Tropicbird, Laysan Albatross, Wedge-tailed Shearwater, Brown Booby, and Red-footed Booby. We tracked these breeding seabirds from 14 different sites throughout the MHI; study colonies were located on the main islands of Maui, Oʻahu, Kauaʻi, and on associated islets. We used the Residence in Space and Time (RST) algorithm to classify behavior into resting, transiting, and searching/foraging (Torres et al. 2017). We used GPS altitude measurements to examine species-specific flight height and to estimate time spent flying in the RSZ. We mapped rediscretized tracking data for seabirds at each study colony according to behavioral class and trip type (when applicable) using kernel density estimates. During 2014–2016, we obtained GPS and TDR data from 59 and 34 Red-tailed Tropicbirds, respectively. Taken together, individuals revealed a bimodal (short- [~3 h, <100 km range] and long- [>3 d, >800 km range]) trip foraging strategy. While ranging at sea, we estimated that Red-tailed Tropicbirds spend 70.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] 70.1–71.0%) of flight time in the RSZ. TDR data for tropicbirds was noisy and we could not reliably identify dives. During 2014 and 2016, we obtained GPS data from 35 Laysan Albatrosses nesting on Kauaʻi and Oʻahu. Individuals during the mid- to late-chick rearing period engaged in a bimodal short- (<6 d, <400 km range) and long- (>6 d, >2,000 km range) trip foraging strategy. While ranging at sea, we estimated that Laysan Albatrosses spend 2.57% (95% CI 2.50–2.64%) of flight time in the RSZ. During 2013–2015, we obtained GPS and TDR data from 313 and 55 Wedge-tailed Shearwaters, respectively. Considering all the data together, individuals revealed a multi-modal trip duration foraging strategy consisting of intra-day (<24 h, <100 km range), short (<4 d, ~200 km range), and long (>4 d, ~100–400 km range) trips. While ranging at sea, we estimated that Wedge-tailed Shearwaters spend 5.20% (95% CI 5.13–5.27%) of flight time in the RSZ. Wedge-tailed Shearwaters dove to a mean (± SD) depth of 1.78 ± 1.35 m (median = 1.38 m); the deepest dive recorded was to 10.06 m. The mean dive duration for Wedge-tailed Shearwaters was 3.12 ± 3.44 s (median = 1.80 s). During 2014–2015, we obtained GPS and TDR data from 42 and 37 Brown Boobies, respectively. Almost all foraging trips (97%) were single-day trips and we did not detect any bimodality in the distribution of single-day trip durations. Brown Boobies foraged relatively close to their colony (<60 km range) and focused their at-sea use in nearshore, coastal waters off Kauaʻi and Niʻihau. While foraging at sea, we estimated that Brown Boobies spend 3.41% (95% CI 3.16–3.67%) of flight time in the RSZ
Hawaii↗
Bioenergy potential of the United States constrained by satellite observations of existing productivity
United States (U.S.) energy policy includes an expectation that bioenergy will be a substantial future energy source. In particular, the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA) aims to increase annual U.S. biofuel (secondary bioenergy) production by more than 3-fold, from 40 to 136 billion liters ethanol, which implies an even larger increase in biomass demand (primary energy), from roughly 2.9 to 7.4 EJ yr –1 . However, our understanding of many of the factors used to establish such energy targets is far from complete, introducing significgant uncertainty into the feasibility of current estimates of bioenergy potential. Here, we utilized satellite-derived net primary productivity (NPP) data—measured for every 1 km 2 of the 7.2 million km 2 of vegetated land in the conterminous U.S.—to estimate primary bioenergy potential (PBP). Our results indicate that PBP of the conterminous U.S. ranges from roughly 5.9 to 22.2 EJ yr –1 , depending on land use. The low end of this range represents the potential when harvesting residues only, while the high end would require an annual biomass harvest over an area more than three times current U.S. agricultural extent. While EISA energy targets are theoretically achievable, we show that meeting these targets utilizing current technology would require either an 80% displacement of current crop harvest or the conversion of 60% of rangeland productivity. Accordingly, realistically constrained estimates of bioenergy potential are critical for effective incorporation of bioenergy into the national energy portfolio.
Environmental Science & Technology↗
The U.S. Geological Survey Energy Resources Program
The United States uses tremendous amounts of geologic energy resources. In 2004 alone, the United States consumed more than 7.4 billion barrels of oil, 21.9 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and 1.1 billion short tons of coal. Forecasts indicate the Nation's need for energy resources will continue to grow, raising several questions: How much domestic and foreign petroleum resources are available to meet the growing energy demands of the Nation and world? Does the United States have coal deposits of sufficient quantity and quality to meet demand over the next century? What other geologic energy resources can be added to the U.S. energy mix? How do the occurrence and use of energy resources affect environmental quality and human health? Unbiased information from robust scientific studies is needed for sound energy policy and resource management decisions addressing these issues. The U.S. Geological Survey Energy Resources Program provides impartial, scientifically robust information to advance the understanding of geologically based energy resources including: petroleum (oil, natural gas, natural gas liquids), coal, gas hydrates, geothermal resources, oil shale, oil sands, uranium, and heavy oil and natural bitumen. This information can be used to contribute to plans for a secure energy future and to facilitate evaluation and responsible use of resources.
Fact Sheet↗
Economics and coal resource appraisal: strippable coal in the Illinois Basin ( USA)
Coal-resource appraisals generally describe the location and general characteristics of coal beds. Estimates are made of the average overburden depth (depth of the coal bed below the surface), bed thickness, and perhaps certain chemical properties of the coal [1]. Although such resource compilations represent an important initial step, neither they nor current estimates provide sufficient information to determine the costs of alternative options for National energy policy. Because coal is expected to provide an increasing part of future overall U.S. energy supply, it is crucial for long term planning that coalresource appraisals convey sufficient information regarding the degree of economic resource scarcity (escalation of unit costs for mining remaining deposits as the best deposits in an area are mined out) expected as coal consumption increases. However, assumptions embodied in most large-scale models of coal supply [13; 20] imply that the coal reserves that exist can be commercially produced as needed. As demonstrated by the embargo of 1973-1974 and more recent difficulties in obtaining crude oil, even a slight temporary commodity shortfall will result in significant economic losses when the commodity supplies a large proportion of the total energy used by an economy. For the United States, crude oil resource estimates did not give warning of a decline in domestic petroleum product. In this paper we argue that coal-resource estimates, as they are now made, will not give warning of future supply difficulties. A method for incorporating an economic dimension into appraisals of strippable coal resources is presented and is applied to a major U.S. coal-producing region, the Illinois part of the Illinois basin. Illinois accounts for nearly 70% of the demonstrated strippable coal reserve base of the Illinois basin [12]. In particular, a long-run incremental cost function (that is unit costs vs. cumulative reserves extracted) is estimated for strippable coal in Illinois. The estimated cost function exhibits an initial range over which costs increase at a constant rate-followed by a range where costs increase very rapidly and the function becomes quite inelastic. This long-run incremental cost function is significant for two reasons. Comparison of the demonstrated reserve base for strippable coal (14.8 billion tons) with cumulative production (since 1920 of 1.1 billion tons) might suggest that future depletion will not be significant when, in fact, the cost function presented here indicates otherwise. Because the only states having more reserves of strippable coal than Illinois are Montana and Wyoming [18], these results have implications for national coal-resource appraisal. Secondly, most models used to study the effects of alternative public policies in coal markets are static in nature [15; 16] and cannot consider the effects of increasing costs. Furthermore, models which are multi-period in nature [11; 13] appear to have little empirical basis for their assumptions regarding the escalation of production costs resulting from depletion. The plan of the paper is as follows. First a description of the analytical approach for constructing the long-run incremental cost-reserve function is discussed. Following this, the descriptions of the Illinois basin and the basic physical data are presented. In the concluding section, the main results are presented and their implications are explored
Southern Economic Journal↗
Hot dry rock and the U.S. geological survey: a question of priorities
The enactment of the Energy Policy Act of 1992 saw the assignment of definite responsibilities relating to hot dry rock (HDR) to the US Geological Survey (USGS). This mandate provided some explicit guidelines and individual tasks in areas in which the USGS already had close ties to the Department of Energy and a number of its national laboratories. This paper discusses various tasks in terms of priorities being conducted by USGS as response to the Act.
Bulletin. Geothermal Resources Council↗
USGS compilation of geographic information system (GIS) data representing coal mines and coal-bearing areas in China
Geographic information system (GIS) information may facilitate energy studies, which in turn provide input for energy policy decisions. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has compiled geographic information system (GIS) data representing the known coal mine locations and coal-mining areas of China as of 2001. These data are now available for download, and may be used in a GIS for a variety of energy resource and environmental studies of China. Province-scale maps were also created to display the point locations of coal mines and the coal-mining areas. In addition, coal-field outlines from a previously published map by Dai and others (2012) were also digitized and are available for download as a separate GIS data file, and shown in a nation-scale map of China. Chemical data for 332 coal samples from a previous USGS study of China and Taiwan (Tewalt and others, 2010) are included in a downloadable GIS point shapefile, and shown on a nation-scale map of China. A brief report summarizes the methodology used for creation of the shapefiles and the chemical analyses run on the samples.
Open-File Report↗
USGS compilation of geographic information system (GIS) data of coal mines and coal-bearing areas in Mongolia
Geographic information system (GIS) information may facilitate energy studies, which in turn provide input for energy policy decisions. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has compiled GIS data representing coal mines, deposits (including those with and without coal mines), occurrences, areas, basins, and provinces of Mongolia as of 2009. These data are now available for download, and may be used in a GIS for a variety of energy resource and environmental studies of Mongolia. Chemical data for 37 coal samples from a previous USGS study of Mongolia (Tewalt and others, 2010) are included in a downloadable GIS point shapefile and shown on the map of Mongolia. A brief report summarizes the methodology used for creation of the shapefiles and the chemical analyses run on the samples.
Open-File Report↗
Outstanding issues for new geothermal resource assessments
A critical question for the future energy policy of the United States is the extent to which geothermal resources can contribute to an ever-increasing demand for electricity. Electric power production from geothermal sources exceeds that from wind and solar combined, yet the installed capacity falls far short of the geothermal resource base characterized in past assessments, even though the estimated size of the resource in six assessments completed in the past 35 years varies by thousands of Megawatts-electrical (MWe). The U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) is working closely with the Department of Energy's (DOE) Geothermal Research Program and other geothermal organizations on a three-year effort to produce an updated assessment of available geothermal resources. The new assessment will introduce significant changes in the models for geothermal energy recovery factors, estimates of reservoir permeability, limits to temperatures and depths for electric power production, and include the potential impact of evolving Enhanced (or Engineered) Geothermal Systems (EGS) technology.
Conference Paper↗
A bootstrap approach to computing uncertainty in inferred oil and gas reserve estimates
This study develops confidence intervals for estimates of inferred oil and gas reserves based on bootstrap procedures. Inferred reserves are expected additions to proved reserves in previously discovered conventional oil and gas fields. Estimates of inferred reserves accounted for 65% of the total oil and 34% of the total gas assessed in the U.S. Geological Survey’s 1995 National Assessment of oil and gas in US onshore and State offshore areas. When the same computational methods used in the 1995 Assessment are applied to more recent data, the 80-year (from 1997 through 2076) inferred reserve estimates for pre-1997 discoveries located in the lower 48 onshore and state offshore areas amounted to a total of 39.7 billion barrels of oil (BBO) and 293 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of gas. The 90% confidence interval about the oil estimate derived from the bootstrap approach is 22.4 BBO to 69.5 BBO. The comparable 90% confidence interval for the inferred gas reserve estimate is 217 TCF to 413 TCF. The 90% confidence interval describes the uncertainty that should be attached to the estimates. It also provides a basis for developing scenarios to explore the implications for energy policy analysis.
Natural Resources Research↗
Identifying alternate pathways for climate change to impact inland recreational fishers
Fisheries and human dimensions literature suggests that climate change influences inland recreational fishers in North America through three major pathways. The most widely recognized pathway suggests that climate change impacts habitat and fish populations (e.g., water temperature impacting fish survival) and cascades to impact fishers. Climate change also impacts recreational fishers by influencing environmental conditions that directly affect fishers (e.g., increased temperatures in northern climates resulting in extended open water fishing seasons and increased fishing effort). The final pathway occurs from climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts (e.g., refined energy policies result in higher fuel costs, making distant trips more expensive). To address limitations of past research (e.g., assessing climate change impacts for only one pathway at a time and not accounting for climate variability, extreme weather events, or heterogeneity among fishers), we encourage researchers to refocus their efforts to understand and document climate change impacts to inland fishers.
Fisheries↗
Land change, fire, and climate weaken carbon sink in the conterminous U.S.
The land carbon sink of the conterminous United States was evaluated using a bottom-up modeling framework and 30-meter land change data from 1985 to 2020. This cross-scale, cross-landscape, and cross-system approach tracked fractional land cover changes and applied regional model calibration. Results show average terrestrial and aquatic carbon sinks of +110 ± 37 and +19 ± 0.5 teragrams of carbon per year, respectively. The terrestrial carbon sink, showing no clear trend, peaked in the 1990s, with more years as a carbon source since 2000, contradicting recent national and global studies. Land change had the largest impact (−70 ± 5.5 teragrams of carbon per year), exceeding impacts of climate (−33 ± 48 teragrams of carbon per year), wildfire (−7.7 ± 2.4 teragrams of carbon per year), and erosion transport (−1.9 ± 0.13 teragrams of carbon per year). The positive CO2 fertilization effect (+69 ± 12 teragrams of carbon per year) was insufficient to maintain the carbon sink strength. Our framework reveals key paths of carbon loss, with implications for carbon budget and energy policies in the United States and beyond.
conterminous United States↗
Uncertainty and inferred reserve estimates — The 1995 National Assessment
Inferred reserves are expected additions to proved reserves of oil and gas fields discovered as of a certain date. Inferred reserves accounted for 65 percent of the total oil and 34 percent of the total gas assessed in the U.S. Geological Survey's 1995 National Assessment of oil and gas in onshore and State offshore areas. The assessment predicted that over the 80-year period from 1992 through 2071, the sizes of pre-1992 discoveries in the lower 48 onshore and State offshore areas will increase by 48 billion barrels of oil (BBO) and 313 trillion cubic feet of wet gas (TCF). At that time, only point estimates were reported. This study presents a scheme to compute confidence intervals for these estimates. The recentered 90 percent confidence interval for the estimated inferred oil of 48 BBO is 25 BBO and 82 BBO. Similarly, the endpoints of the confidence interval about inferred reserve estimate of 313 TCF are 227 TCF and 439 TCF. The range of the estimates provides a basis for development of scenarios for projecting reserve additions and ultimately oil and gas production, information important to energy policy analysis.
Bulletin↗
Chapter 7. The GIS project for the geologic assessment of undiscovered oil and gas in the Cotton Valley group and Travis Peak and Hosston formations, East Texas basin and Louisiana-Mississippi salt basins provinces
A geographic information system (GIS) focusing on the Upper Jurassic-Lower Cretaceous Cotton Valley Group and the Lower Cretaceous Travis Peak and Hosston Formations in the northern Gulf Coast region was developed as a visual-analysis tool for the U.S. Geological Survey's 2002 assessment of undiscovered, technically recoverable oil and natural gas resources in the East Texas Basin and Louisiana-Mississippi Salt Basins Provinces. The Central Energy Resources Team of the U.S. Geological Survey has also developed an Internet Map Service to deliver the GIS data to the public. This mapping tool utilizes information from a database about the oil and natural gas endowment of the United States-including physical locations of geologic and geographic data-and converts the data into visual layers. Portrayal and analysis of geologic features on an interactive map provide an excellent tool for understanding domestic oil and gas resources for strategic planning, formulating economic and energy policies, evaluating lands under the purview of the Federal Government, and developing sound environmental policies. Assessment results can be viewed and analyzed or downloaded from the internet web site, http://energy.cr.usgs.gov/oilgas/noga/ .
Alabama, Arkansas. Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mi↗
Chapter 4: The GIS Project for the Geologic Assessment of Undiscovered Oil and Gas in the Upper Cretaceous Navarro and Taylor Groups, Western Gulf Province, Texas
A geographic information system (GIS) focusing on the Upper Cretaceous Navarro and Taylor Groups in the Gulf Coast region was developed as a visual-analysis tool for the U.S. Geological Survey's 2003 assessment of undiscovered, technically recoverable oil and natural gas resources in the Western Gulf Province. The Central Energy Resources Team of the U.S. Geological Survey has also developed an Internet Map Service to deliver the GIS data to the general public. This mapping tool utilizes information from a database about the oil and natural gas endowment of the United States - including physical locations of geologic and geographic data - and converts the data into visual layers. Portrayal and analysis of geologic features on an interactive map provide an excellent tool for understanding domestic oil and gas resources for strategic planning, formulating economic and energy policies, evaluating lands under the purview of the Federal Government, and developing sound environmental policies. Assessment results can be viewed and analyzed or downloaded from the internet web site.
Data Series↗
Geologic assessment of undiscovered gas resources of the Eastern Oregon and Washington Province
The purpose of the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) National Oil and Gas Assessment is to develop geology-based hypotheses regarding the potential for additions to oil and gas reserves in priority areas of the United States, focusing on the distribution, quantity, and availability of oil and natural gas resources. The USGS has completed an assessment of the undiscovered oil and gas potential of the Eastern Oregon and Washington Province of Oregon and Washington (USGS Province 5005). The province is a priority Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA) province for the National Assessment because of its potential for oil and gas resources. The assessment of this province is based on geologic principles and uses the total petroleum system concept. The geologic elements of a total petroleum system include hydrocarbon source rocks (source rock maturation, hydrocarbon generation and migration), reservoir rocks (stratigraphy, sedimentology, petrophysical properties), and hydrocarbon traps (trap formation and timing). In the Eastern Oregon and Washington Province, the USGS used this geologic framework to define one total petroleum system and two assessment units within the total petroleum system, and quantitatively estimated the undiscovered gas resources within each assessment unit.
Oregon, Washington↗
Geologic assessment of undiscovered, technically recoverable coalbed-gas resources in Cretaceous and Tertiary rocks, North Slope, and adjacent state waters, Alaska
The purpose of the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) National Oil and Gas Assessment is to develop geology-based hypotheses regarding the potential for additions to oil and gas reserves in priority areas of the United States, focusing on the distribution, quantity, and availability of oil and natural gas resources. The USGS has completed an assessment of the undiscovered, technically recoverable coalbed-gas resources in Cretaceous and Tertiary rocks underlying the North Slope and adjacent State waters of Alaska (USGS Northern Alaska Province 5001). The province is a priority Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA) province for the National Assessment because of its potential for oil and gas resources. The assessment of this province is based on geologic principles and uses the total petroleum system concept. The geologic elements of a total petroleum system include hydrocarbon source rocks (source rock maturation, hydrocarbon generation and migration), reservoir rocks (stratigraphy, sedimentology, petrophysical properties), and hydrocarbon traps (trap formation and timing). In the Northern Alaska Province, the USGS used this geologic framework to define one composite coalbed gas total petroleum system and three coalbed gas assessment units within the petroleum system, and quantitatively estimated the undiscovered coalbed-gas resources within each assessment unit.
Alaska↗