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At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2015

The pace of past climate change vs. potential bird distributions and land use in the United States

Climate change may drastically alter patterns of species distributions and richness, but predicting future species patterns in occurrence is challenging. Significant shifts in distributions have already been observed, and understanding these recent changes can improve our understanding of potential future changes. We assessed how past climate change affected potential breeding distributions for landbird species in the conterminous United States. We quantified the bioclimatic velocity of potential breeding distributions, that is, the pace and direction of change for each species’ suitable climate space over the past 60 years. We found that potential breeding distributions for landbirds have shifted substantially with an average velocity of 1.27 km yr −1 , about double the pace of prior distribution shift estimates across terrestrial systems globally (0.61 km yr −1 ). The direction of shifts was not uniform. The majority of species’ distributions shifted west, northwest, and north. Multidirectional shifts suggest that changes in climate conditions beyond mean temperature were influencing distributional changes. Indeed, precipitation variables that were proxies for extreme conditions were important variables across all models. There were winners and losers in terms of the area of distributions; many species experienced contractions along west and east distribution edges, and expansions along northern distribution edges. Changes were also reflected in the potential species richness, with some regions potentially gaining species (Midwest, East) and other areas potentially losing species (Southwest). However, the degree to which changes in potential breeding distributions are manifested in actual species richness depends on landcover. Areas that have become increasingly suitable for breeding birds due to changing climate are often those attractive to humans for agriculture and development. This suggests that many areas might have supported more breeding bird species had the landscape not been altered. Our study illustrates that climate change is not only a future threat, but something birds are already experiencing.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2018

Cracking the code of biodiversity responses to past climate change

How individual species and entire ecosystems will respond to future climate change are among the most pressing questions facing ecologists. Past biodiversity dynamics recorded in the paleoecological archives show a broad array of responses, yet significant knowledge gaps remain. In particular, the relative roles of evolutionary adaptation, phenotypic plasticity, and dispersal in promoting survival during times of climate change have yet to be clarified. Investigating the paleo-archives offers great opportunities to understand biodiversity responses to future climate change. In this review we discuss the mechanisms by which biodiversity responds to environmental change, and identify gaps of knowledge on the role of range shifts and tolerance. We also outline approaches at the intersection of paleoecology, genomics, experiments, and predictive models that will elucidate the processes by which species have survived past climatic changes and enhance predictions of future changes in biological diversity.

Trends in Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2009

Past climate variability and change in the Arctic and at high latitudes

Paleoclimate records play a key role in our understanding of Earth's past and present climate system and in our confidence in predicting future climate changes. Paleoclimate data help to elucidate past and present active mechanisms of climate change by placing the short instrumental record into a longer term context and by permitting models to be tested beyond the limited time that instrumental measurements have been available.

Synthesis and Assessment Product↗
USGS2020

Ancient Martian aeolian sand dune deposits recorded in the stratigraphy of Valles Marineris and implications for past climates

Aeolian sediment transport, deposition, and erosion have been ongoing throughout Mars's history. This record of widespread aeolian processes is preserved in landforms and geologic units that retain important clues about past environmental conditions including wind patterns. In this study we describe landforms within Melas Chasma, Valles Marineris, that occur in distinct groups with linear to crescentic shapes, arranged with a characteristic wavelength; some possess slope profiles analogous to modern sand dunes yet show evidence for lithification. Based on the features' dimensions, asymmetry, and spatial patterns relative to modern equivalents, we interpret these landforms to be two classes of aeolian bedforms: decameter‐scale megaripples and sand dunes. The presence of superposed erosional features and depositional units indicates that these landforms were cemented and likely ancient. Melas paleodunes are found atop Hesperian‐aged layered deposits, but we estimate them to be younger, likely lithified in the Amazonian period. Although a range of degradation was observed, some paleodunes are >10 m tall and maintain steep lee sides (>25°), an uncommon scenario for terrestrial examples as other geologic processes lead to dune obliteration. The preserved paleobedform geometries are largely consistent with those of modern aeolian indicators, suggesting no major shifts in wind regime or contributing boundary conditions. Finally, we propose that their appearance and context require sequential periods of dune migration, stabilization following catastrophic burial, cementation, differential erosion, exposure, and burial. The presence of wholly preserved duneforms appears to be more common on Mars compared to the Earth and may signal something important about Martian landscape evolution.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets↗
USGS2011

Data on past climate warmth may lead to better model of warm future

Weather bureaus around the world have accumulated daily historical records of atmospheric conditions for more than a century to help forecast meteorological conditions 3 to 5 days ahead. To gain insight into the impact of possible future climate warming and constrain predictive models for a warm future, climatologists are seeking paleoclimatologic and paleoceanographic records from recent intervals of the late Quaternary, when conditions were demonstrably warmer than today. Results of past research on Brunhes-age paleoclimate suggest that Marine Isotope Stage 11 (MIS 11), an interval between 420 and 360 ka, was the longest and warmest interglacial interval of the past 500 kyr (see the recent review by Howard [1997]). This interval was characterized by warmer seasurface temperatures in high latitudes, strong thermohaline circulation, unusual carbonate plankton blooms in high latitudes, higher than present sea level, coral reef expansion resulting in large accumulation of neritic carbonates, and overall poor pelagic carbonate preservation.

Eos Science News↗
USGS2018

Preparing for an uncertain future: Migrating shorebird response to past climatic fluctuations in the Prairie Potholes

The Prairie Pothole Region, situated in the northern Great Plains, provides important stopover habitat for migratory shorebirds. During spring migration in the U.S. Prairie Potholes, 7.3 million shorebirds refuel in the region's myriad small, freshwater wetlands. Shorebirds use mudflats, shorelines, and ephemeral wetlands that are far more abundant in wet years than dry years. Generally, climate change is expected to bring warmer temperatures, seasonality shifts, more extreme events, and changes to precipitation. The impacts to wetland habitats are uncertain. In the Prairie Potholes, earlier spring onset and warmer temperatures may advance drying of wetlands or, alternately, increased spring precipitation may produce abundant shallow‐water habitats. To look at the availability of habitats for migratory shorebirds under different climate regimes, we compared habitat selection between a historic wet year and a dry year using binomial random‐effects models to describe local and landscape patterns. We found that in the dry year shorebirds were distributed more northerly and among more permanent wetlands, whereas in the wet year shorebirds were distributed more southerly and among more temporary wetlands. However, landscape‐scale variation played a larger role in the dry year. At the local wetland scale, shorebirds selected similarly between years—for shallower wetlands and wetlands in croplands. Overall, while shorebirds were sensitive to local habitat conditions, they exhibited a degree of adaptive capacity to climate change impacts by their ability to shift on the landscape. This indicates an avenue through which management decisions can enhance climate change resilience for these species given an uncertain future—by preserving shallow‐water wetlands in croplands throughout the landscape.

Prairie Pothole Region↗
USGS2011

Impacts of past climate and sea level change on Everglades wetlands: placing a century of anthropogenic change into a late-Holocene context

We synthesize existing evidence on the ecological history of the Florida Everglades since its inception ~7 ka (calibrated kiloannum) and evaluate the relative impacts of sea level rise, climate variability, and human alteration of Everglades hydrology on wetland plant communities. Initial freshwater peat accumulation began between 6 and 7 ka on the platform underlying modern Florida Bay when sea level was ~6.2 m below its current position. By 5 ka, sawgrass and waterlily peats covered the area bounded by Lake Okeechobee to the north and the Florida Keys to the south. Slower rates of relative sea level rise ~3 ka stabilized the south Florida coastline and initiated transitions from freshwater to mangrove peats near the coast. Hydrologic changes in freshwater marshes also are indicated ~3 ka. During the last ~2 ka, the Everglades wetland was affected by a series of hydrologic fluctuations related to regional to global-scale fluctuations in climate and sea level. Pollen evidence indicates that regional-scale droughts lasting two to four centuries occurred ~1 ka and ~0.4 ka, altering wetland community composition and triggering development of characteristic Everglades habitats such as sawgrass ridges and tree islands. Intercalation of mangrove peats with estuarine muds ~1 ka indicates a temporary slowing or stillstand of sea level. Although sustained droughts and Holocene sea level rise played large roles in structuring the greater Everglades ecosystem, twentieth century reductions in freshwater flow, compartmentalization of the wetland, and accelerated rates of sea level rise had unprecedented impacts on oxidation and subsidence of organic soils, changes/loss of key Everglades habitats, and altered distribution of coastal vegetation.

Florida↗
USGS2015

Forecasting sagebrush ecosystem components and greater sage-grouse habitat for 2050: learning from past climate patterns and Landsat imagery to predict the future

Sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.) ecosystems constitute the largest single North American shrub ecosystem and provide vital ecological, hydrological, biological, agricultural, and recreational ecosystem services. Disturbances have altered and reduced this ecosystem historically, but climate change may ultimately represent the greatest future risk. Improved ways to quantify, monitor, and predict climate-driven gradual change in this ecosystem is vital to its future management. We examined the annual change of Daymet precipitation (daily gridded climate data) and five remote sensing ecosystem sagebrush vegetation and soil components (bare ground, herbaceous, litter, sagebrush, and shrub) from 1984 to 2011 in southwestern Wyoming. Bare ground displayed an increasing trend in abundance over time, and herbaceous, litter, shrub, and sagebrush showed a decreasing trend. Total precipitation amounts show a downward trend during the same period. We established statistically significant correlations between each sagebrush component and historical precipitation records using a simple least squares linear regression. Using the historical relationship between sagebrush component abundance and precipitation in a linear model, we forecasted the abundance of the sagebrush components in 2050 using Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) precipitation scenarios A1B and A2. Bare ground was the only component that increased under both future scenarios, with a net increase of 48.98 km 2 (1.1%) across the study area under the A1B scenario and 41.15 km 2 (0.9%) under the A2 scenario. The remaining components decreased under both future scenarios: litter had the highest net reductions with 49.82 km 2 (4.1%) under A1B and 50.8 km 2 (4.2%) under A2, and herbaceous had the smallest net reductions with 39.95 km 2 (3.8%) under A1B and 40.59 km 2 (3.3%) under A2. We applied the 2050 forecast sagebrush component values to contemporary (circa 2006) greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) habitat models to evaluate the effects of potential climate-induced habitat change. Under the 2050 IPCC A1B scenario, 11.6% of currently identified nesting habitat was lost, and 0.002% of new potential habitat was gained, with 4% of summer habitat lost and 0.039% gained. Our results demonstrate the successful ability of remote sensing based sagebrush components, when coupled with precipitation, to forecast future component response using IPCC precipitation scenarios. Our approach also enables future quantification of greater sage-grouse habitat under different precipitation scenarios, and provides additional capability to identify regional precipitation influence on sagebrush component response.

Wyoming↗
USGS2009

Characterization of phyllosilicates observed in the central Mawrth Vallis region, Mars, their potential formational processes, and implications for past climate

Mawrth Vallis contains one of the largest exposures of phyllosilicates on Mars. Nontronite, montmorillonite, kaolinite, and hydrated silica have been identified throughout the region using data from the Compact Reconnaissance Imaging Spectrometer for Mars (CRISM). In addition, saponite has been identified in one observation within a crater. These individual minerals are identified and distinguished by features at 1.38-1.42, ???1.91, and 2.17-2.41 ??m. There are two main phyllosilicate units in the Mawrth Vallis region. The lowermost unit is nontronite bearing, unconformably overlain by an Al-phyllosilicate unit containing montmorillonite plus hydrated silica, with a thin layer of kaolinite plus hydrated silica at the top of the unit. These two units are draped by a spectrally unremarkable capping unit. Smectites generally form in neutral to alkaline environments, while kaolinite and hydrated silica typically form in slightly acidic conditions; thus, the observed phyllosilicates may reflect a change in aqueous chemistry. Spectra retrieved near the boundary between the nontronite and Al-phyllosilicate units exhibit a strong positive slope from 1 to 2 ??m, likely from a ferrous component within the rock. This ferrous component indicates either rapid deposition in an oxidizing environment or reducing conditions. Formation of each of the phyllosilicate minerals identified requires liquid water, thus indicating a regional wet period in the Noachian when these units formed. The two main phyllosilicate units may be extensive layers of altered volcanic ash. Other potential formational processes include sediment deposition into a marine or lacustrine basin or pedogenesis. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗
USGS2012

Polar and brown bear genomes reveal ancient admixture and demographic footprints of past climate change

Polar bears (PBs) are superbly adapted to the extreme Arctic environment and have become emblematic of the threat to biodiversity from global climate change. Their divergence from the lower-latitude brown bear provides a textbook example of rapid evolution of distinct phenotypes. However, limited mitochondrial and nuclear DNA evidence conflicts in the timing of PB origin as well as placement of the species within versus sister to the brown bear lineage. We gathered extensive genomic sequence data from contemporary polar, brown, and American black bear samples, in addition to a 130,000- to 110,000-y old PB, to examine this problem from a genome-wide perspective. Nuclear DNA markers reflect a species tree consistent with expectation, showing polar and brown bears to be sister species. However, for the enigmatic brown bears native to Alaska's Alexander Archipelago, we estimate that not only their mitochondrial genome, but also 5–10% of their nuclear genome, is most closely related to PBs, indicating ancient admixture between the two species. Explicit admixture analyses are consistent with ancient splits among PBs, brown bears and black bears that were later followed by occasional admixture. We also provide paleodemographic estimates that suggest bear evolution has tracked key climate events, and that PB in particular experienced a prolonged and dramatic decline in its effective population size during the last ca. 500,000 years. We demonstrate that brown bears and PBs have had sufficiently independent evolutionary histories over the last 4–5 million years to leave imprints in the PB nuclear genome that likely are associated with ecological adaptation to the Arctic environment.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences↗
USGS2010

Paleoclimates: Understanding climate change past and present

The field of paleoclimatology relies on physical, chemical, and biological proxies of past climate changes that have been preserved in natural archives such as glacial ice, tree rings, sediments, corals, and speleothems. Paleoclimate archives obtained through field investigations, ocean sediment coring expeditions, ice sheet coring programs, and other projects allow scientists to reconstruct climate change over much of earth's history. When combined with computer model simulations, paleoclimatic reconstructions are used to test hypotheses about the causes of climatic change, such as greenhouse gases, solar variability, earth's orbital variations, and hydrological, oceanic, and tectonic processes. This book is a comprehensive, state-of-the art synthesis of paleoclimate research covering all geological timescales, emphasizing topics that shed light on modern trends in the earth's climate. Thomas M. Cronin discusses recent discoveries about past periods of global warmth, changes in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, abrupt climate and sea-level change, natural temperature variability, and other topics directly relevant to controversies over the causes and impacts of climate change. This text is geared toward advanced undergraduate and graduate students and researchers in geology, geography, biology, glaciology, oceanography, atmospheric sciences, and climate modeling, fields that contribute to paleoclimatology. This volume can also serve as a reference for those requiring a general background on natural climate variability.

Book↗
USGS2021

Greater Yellowstone climate assessment: Past, present, and future climate change in the greater Yellowstone watersheds

The Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA) is one of the last remaining large and nearly intact temperate ecosystems on Earth. GYA was originally defined in the 1970s as the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, which encompassed the minimum range of the grizzly bear. The boundary now includes about 22 million acres (8.9 million ha) in northwestern Wyoming, south central Montana, and eastern Idaho (Figure ES-1). Two national parks, five national forests, three wildlife refuges, 20 counties, and state and private lands lie within the GYA boundary (Figure ES-1). The Tribal Nations of the Eastern Shoshone, Northern Arapaho, Apsa´alooke/Crow, Northern Cheyenne, Shoshone, and Bannock have reservations in and near the Greater Yellowstone Area, and 27 Tribes are formally recognized to have historical connections to the lands and resources of the region. Natural resources sensitive to climate change connect many of the major economic activities of the GYA, including tourism and recreation, agriculture, and energy development.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗
USGS2010

Gulf of Mexico Climate-History Calibration Study

Reliable instrumental records of past climate are available for about the last 150 years only. To supplement the instrumental record, reconstructions of past climate are made from natural recorders such as trees, ice, corals, and microfossils preserved in sediments. These proxy records provide information on the rate and magnitude of past climate variability, factors that are critical to distinguishing between natural and human-induced climate change in the present. However, the value of proxy records is heavily dependent on calibration between the chemistry of the natural recorder and of the modern environmental conditions. The Gulf of Mexico Climate and Environmental History Project is currently undertaking a climate-history calibration study with material collected from an automated sediment trap. The primary focus of the calibration study is to provide a better calibration of low-latitude environmental conditions and shell chemistry of calcareous microfossils, such as planktic Foraminifera.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2010

Why Study Paleoclimate?

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) researchers are at the forefront of paleoclimate research, the study of past climates. With their unique skills and perspective, only geologists have the tools necessary to delve into the distant past (long before instrumental records were collected) in order to better understand global environmental conditions that were very different from today's conditions. Paleoclimatologists are geologists who study past climates to answer questions about what the Earth was like in the past and to enable projections, plans, and preparations for the future. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has projected a future warmer climate that has the potential to affect every person on Earth. Extreme weather events, rising sea level, and migrating ecosystems and resources could result in worldwide socio-economic stresses if not met with prudent and proactive action plans based on quality scientific research. Still, the most dangerous aspect of our changing climate is the uncertainty in the exact nature and rate of projected climate change. To reduce the uncertainties, USGS paleoclimatologists are studying a possible analog to a future warmer climate. The middle part of the Piacenzian Stage of the Pliocene Epoch, about 3.3 to 3.0 million years ago, is the most recent period in Earth's history in which global warmth reached and remained at temperatures similar to those projected for the end of this century, about 2 degrees C to 3 degrees C warmer on average than today over the entire globe. This past warmer time interval preceded the ice ages but was recent enough, geologically, to be very similar to today in terms of ocean circulation and the position of the continents. Also, the populations of plants and animals were much like those of today, and so geologists can use their fossils to estimate past environmental conditions such as temperature and sea level.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2012

Quantitative estimation of climatic parameters from vegetation data in North America by the mutual climatic range technique

The mutual climatic range (MCR) technique is perhaps the most widely used method for estimating past climatic parameters from fossil assemblages, largely because it can be conducted on a simple list of the taxa present in an assemblage. When applied to plant macrofossil data, this unweighted approach (MCR un ) will frequently identify a large range for a given climatic parameter where the species in an assemblage can theoretically live together. To narrow this range, we devised a new weighted approach (MCR wt ) that employs information from the modern relations between climatic parameters and plant distributions to lessen the influence of the "tails" of the distributions of the climatic data associated with the taxa in an assemblage. To assess the performance of the MCR approaches, we applied them to a set of modern climatic data and plant distributions on a 25-km grid for North America, and compared observed and estimated climatic values for each grid point. In general, MCR wt was superior to MCR un in providing smaller anomalies, less bias, and better correlations between observed and estimated values. However, by the same measures, the results of Modern Analog Technique (MAT) approaches were superior to MCR wt . Although this might be reason to favor MAT approaches, they are based on assumptions that may not be valid for paleoclimatic reconstructions, including that: 1) the absence of a taxon from a fossil sample is meaningful, 2) plant associations were largely unaffected by past changes in either levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide or in the seasonal distributions of solar radiation, and 3) plant associations of the past are adequately represented on the modern landscape. To illustrate the application of these MCR and MAT approaches to paleoclimatic reconstructions, we applied them to a Pleistocene paleobotanical assemblage from the western United States. From our examinations of the estimates of modern and past climates from vegetation assemblages, we conclude that the MCR un technique provides reliable and unbiased estimates of the ranges of possible climatic conditions that can reasonably be associated with these assemblages. The application of MCR wt and MAT approaches can further constrain these estimates and may provide a systematic way to assess uncertainty. The data sets required for MCR analyses in North America are provided in a parallel publication.

Quaternary Science Reviews↗
USGS2021

Assessing the uncertainties in climatic estimates based on vegetation assemblages: Examples from modern vegetation assemblages in the American Southwest

Assemblages of fossil plant remains have been widely used to reconstruct past climatic conditions, usually through the application of methods that involve either finding vegetation analogues on the modern landscape (and using the modern associated climatic values as the basis for an estimate) or using the modern climatic ranges of individual taxa in an assemblage to determine the range of a given climate variable that would allow these plant taxa to live together. Although these approaches are relatively straightforward, it is difficult to assess the uncertainties associated with each approach, particularly in regard to their application to plant macrofossil assemblages. To explore the uncertainty that may arise from inaccuracy and imprecision in climate reconstructions and from ecological considerations we used variants of both approaches to estimate climate from two data sets of modern vegetation assemblages from the southwestern United States: (1) 1752 gridded “virtual plant assemblages” based on plant range maps that provide uniform spatial coverage of the presence or absence of major woody plant taxa across the study area; and (2) 43 modern packrat ( Neotoma spp.) midden presence-absence assemblages that are similar to fossil midden assemblages. By comparing observed and estimated climate values, we evaluated the quality of the climate estimates, identified sources of uncertainty, and characterized the nature and magnitude of the effects of these uncertainties on the climate estimates. Uncertainties in estimating climate from vegetation assemblages arise because any given plant taxon (or assemblage) must have the resiliency to survive a range of climatic variability, and because of the strong intercorrelations among climatic variables in the modern climate data. Additional sources of uncertainty in climate estimates from plant assemblages include: (1) the modern climate and plant distribution data that are selected as the basis for estimation; (2) the particular quantitative approach that is used to estimate climate; (3) the sufficiency of the number of taxa in the analysis for providing an unbiased representation of the vegetation community as it existed for each time period in the analysis; and, (4) the location of the assemblage on the climatic and environmental gradients in the calibration data set for each climate variable under consideration. We conclude that vegetation assemblages can provide valid and reproducible estimates of climatic variables and that the primary trends and mapped patterns in the observed climate data can be reconstructed from such estimates. However, many factors may affect the quality of an estimate from a given plant assemblage, including aspects of data selection, data adequacy, methodologies, and the location of the assemblage site relative to gradients in the base climate data. It is particularly difficult to accurately estimate extreme values in the observed climate data, because estimated values from either end of an observed climate gradient necessarily “move toward the middle” of the gradient. In addition, the interval chosen to represent modern climate (here we used 1961 to 1990) may have a large impact on the size of the estimated difference between modern and past climate at a given site.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico,↗
USGS2024

Polar science results from Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter: Multiwavelength, multiyear insights

Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO), with its arrival in 2006 and nearly continuous operation since, has provided data for the study of martian polar processes spanning nine Mars years. Mars' polar deposits have long been thought to preserve records of past climates, potentially readable like terrestrial ice cores. However, unraveling millions of years of history in the ice depends on understanding Mars' current and recent-past climate, including the interactions of atmospheric and surface processes . MRO has allowed for revolutionary discoveries, long-term monitoring of ongoing processes, and multiple complementary datasets to address the question of how the polar ice deposits reflect climatological changes. In part, MRO has been able to do this from its variety of instrumentation simultaneously observing interannual changes in geomorphology of the surface in up to ∼25 cm/pixel detail, repeatable processes and changes in the atmosphere, and surface composition, as well as investigating signs of past changes recorded in the icy polar layered deposits. In this paper, we summarize the contribution of MRO to our current understanding of Mars polar science, and in particular how MRO's long-duration mission has improved our understanding of the fundamental volatile cycles on Mars.

Icarus↗