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Paleoclimates: Understanding climate change past and present

The field of paleoclimatology relies on physical, chemical, and biological proxies of past climate changes that have been preserved in natural archives such as glacial ice, tree rings, sediments, corals, and speleothems. Paleoclimate archives obtained through field investigations, ocean sediment coring expeditions, ice sheet coring programs, and other projects allow scientists to reconstruct climate change over much of earth's history. When combined with computer model simulations, paleoclimatic reconstructions are used to test hypotheses about the causes of climatic change, such as greenhouse gases, solar variability, earth's orbital variations, and hydrological, oceanic, and tectonic processes. This book is a comprehensive, state-of-the art synthesis of paleoclimate research covering all geological timescales, emphasizing topics that shed light on modern trends in the earth's climate. Thomas M. Cronin discusses recent discoveries about past periods of global warmth, changes in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, abrupt climate and sea-level change, natural temperature variability, and other topics directly relevant to controversies over the causes and impacts of climate change. This text is geared toward advanced undergraduate and graduate students and researchers in geology, geography, biology, glaciology, oceanography, atmospheric sciences, and climate modeling, fields that contribute to paleoclimatology. This volume can also serve as a reference for those requiring a general background on natural climate variability.

Book

Rainfall as a driver of post-wildfire flooding and debris flows: A review and synthesis

The increasing threat of post-wildfire hazards creates an imperative for improved post-wildfire flooding and debris flow prediction capabilities. Because rainfall is a primary driver of predictive hydrology and debris flow initiation and inundation models, recent efforts have emphasized the need for interdisciplinary collaboration between meteorology and post-wildfire hazard science that develops more accurate rainfall estimates with longer lead times. In this work, we identified critical knowledge gaps for developing rainfall estimates and filled those gaps by reviewing recent literature and synthesizing pre-existing datasets. Gap areas were organized into the following general topics: a) rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relations, b) time-varying rainfall, c) spatially varying rainfall, and d) rainfall regimes. Recent key research advances include the increasing availability of gridded quantitative rainfall estimates, the expanded use of distributed hydrologic and erosion models that incorporate spatial and temporal variability in rainfall, and the linking of concepts and modeling from the atmospheric and climate sciences with post-wildfire hazard science. We prototype a rainfall regime regionalization schema that captures self-similar properties of rainfall intensity ( k , the maximum rainfall intensity) and temporal scaling ( n , the decay rate). Our k - n relations schema could serve as a framework for organizing, interpreting, and predicting post-wildfire hydrologic and erosional responses. Finally, we summarize salient gaps for implementing spatiotemporally varying rainfall as the driver of post-wildfire hydrologic models designed to improve the prediction of flooding and debris flow hazards to the built environment for emergency managers.

Earth-Science Reviews

Methane emissions from groundwater pumping in the USA

Atmospheric methane accumulation contributes to climate change, hence quantifying methane emissions is essential to assess and model the impacts. Here we estimate methane emissions from groundwater pumping in the Los Angeles Basin (LAB), north-eastern Pennsylvania, and the Principal aquifers of the USA using the average concentrations of methane in groundwater and annual groundwater pumping volumes. High average methane concentrations, 44.1 mg/L, and extensive groundwater pumping, ~3.1 x 1011 L/a in the LAB, result in the annual emission of ~2.9 x 10-3 Tg of microbial methane. Ethane emissions in the LAB were 3.5 x 10-6 Tg/a. Lower methane emissions estimated for NE Pennsylvania, ~3.0 x 10-8 Tg/a, reflect lower methane concentrations and groundwater pumping, 0.7 mg/L and 4.67 x 107 L/a, respectively. Methane concentrations and groundwater withdrawals, 1.06 x 1014 L, across the USA enabled the estimation of the total emissions of methane from Principal aquifers (92% of total pumping) of 0.044 Tg/a in the year 2000, which represents a small percentage (~0.2%) of the total annual US methane emissions, but a previously unquantified flux in the global methane budget. Globally, groundwater-pumping methane emissions were estimated to be 0.53 Tg/a, 0.2% of global methane emissions, by adopting a global estimate for groundwater extraction, and an average methane concentration in older groundwater of 0.44 mg/L.

Climate and Atmospheric Science

Decomposition of physical processes controlling EASM precipitation changes during the mid-Piacenzian: New insights into data–model integration

The mid-Piacenzian warm period (MPWP, ~3.264–3.025 Ma) has gained widespread interest due to its partial analogy with future climate. However, quantitative data–model comparison of East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) precipitation during the MPWP is relatively rare, especially due to problems in decoding the imprint of physical processes to climate signals in the records. In this study, pollen-based precipitation records are reconstructed and compared to the multi-model ensemble mean of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2). We find spatially consistent precipitation increase in most simulations but a spatially divergent change in MPWP records. We reconcile proxy data and simulation by decomposing physical processes that control precipitation. Our results 1) reveal thermodynamic control of an overall enhancement of EASM precipitation and 2) highlight a distinct control of thermodynamic and dynamical processes on increases of tropical and subtropical EASM precipitation, reflecting the two pathways of water vapor supply that enhance EASM precipitation, respectively.

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science

Impacts of ocean-atmosphere teleconnection patterns on the south-central United States

Recent research has linked the climate variability associated with ocean-atmosphere teleconnections to impacts rippling throughout environmental, economic, and social systems. This research reviews recent literature through 2021 in which we identify linkages among the major modes of climate variability, in the form of ocean-atmosphere teleconnections, and the impacts to temperature and precipitation of the South-Central United States (SCUSA), consisting of Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas. The SCUSA is an important areal focus for this analysis because it straddles the ecotone between humid and arid climates in the United States and has a growing population, diverse ecosystems, robust agricultural and other economic sectors including the potential for substantial wind and solar energy generation. Whereas a need exists to understand atmospheric variability due to the cascading impacts through ecological and social systems, our understanding is complicated by the positioning of the SCUSA between subtropical and extratropical circulation features and the influence of the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, and the adjacent Gulf of Mexico. The Southern Oscillation (SO), Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the related Arctic Oscillation (AO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation/Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMO/AMV), and Pacific Decadal Oscillation/Pacific Decadal Variability (PDO/PDV) have been shown to be important modulators of temperature and precipitation variables at the monthly, seasonal, and interannual scales, and the intraseasonal Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) in the SCUSA. By reviewing these teleconnection impacts in the region alongside updated seasonal correlation maps, this research provides more accessible and comparable results for interdisciplinary use on climate impacts beyond the atmospheric-environmental sciences.

Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas

Mars as one system: Insights from the 8th international conference on Mars polar science and exploration

The 8th International Conference on Mars Polar Science and Exploration (ICMPSE) provided new insights into the complex interplay between Martian ice, climate, and atmospheric dynamics. The conference emphasized a holistic view of Mars as a system, where surface processes, subsurface ice, atmospheric dynamics, and historical climate shifts are interconnected. Research updates spanned cutting-edge remote sensing techniques and observations, terrestrial analog studies, and theoretical modeling, providing a multidimensional view of Mars' dynamic history and present-day activity. Numerous presentations highlighted the importance of understanding Mars as an integrated and dynamic system where surface and atmospheric processes interact over various timescales. This paper synthesizes unresolved questions and the major themes discussed, including mid-latitude glaciation, the evolution of the polar layered deposits (PLDs), terrestrial analog studies, climate modeling, and future mission planning. The findings contributed to refining models of Martian climate history, assessing the potential for extant life, and planning future human exploration. We also discuss the historical perspective of Mars Polar Science and new findings since the 7th conference in this series and anticipate the next four to 20 years of science on Mars related to ice, climate, and the atmosphere.

Icarus

Perspectives on equitable co-production workshop report

The co-production of knowledge is increasingly recognized as an approach to conducting research intended to achieve a societal impact. In this study, we used a broad definition of co-production, defining it as “a process that brings together diverse groups to iteratively create new knowledge and practices (1).” However, co-production has been defined and conceptualized in a variety of ways (2,3), across multiple domains, including public administration, conservation, health, education, and climate change. Theoretical definitions have been introduced by scholars like Jasanoff (4) and Ostrom (5), but definitions can also be grounded in practice (6). For example, unique definitions of co-production have been advanced for work with Arctic Indigenous Peoples (7), in the context of resource management (8), and for a specific program (9). Other similar processes of engagement, such as community-based participatory research (10), action research (11), civic science (12), community science (13), and post-normal science (14) may have overlap with the concept of co-production and have been used to describe similar processes of collaboration. These distinctions and varying definitions have been discussed extensively elsewhere (see Mach et al. 2020, Wyborn et al. 2019). In the context of co-production, power plays a crucial role in shaping interactions and outcomes. Some scholars and practitioners explicitly consider power dynamics as a central element in their definitions of co-production, recognizing how power imbalances can affect participation, decision-making, and the distribution of benefits. Others, however, might not emphasize power as prominently, focusing more on the collaborative aspects without explicitly addressing the underlying power structures. This leads to divergent objectives and priorities among projects claiming to be co-produced (2,3, 6). Chambers and colleagues (2) discussed how co-production projects in the context of sustainability usually emphasize one or more of six different goals, including: researching solutions, empowering voices, brokering power, reframing power, navigating differences, and reframing agency. Because power dynamics are inherent in co-production (15), equity dimensions should be considered in these definitions and conceptualizations. Yet, in the context of government or academically led climate change research and programs, equity is a relatively new focus, even among programs that have been engaging a co-production approach for decades (9). Alternatively, in some recent work the concept of equity in co-production is explicit, but it has only been considered in a limited context (7). Here, we present a discussion about co-production that is informed by research, practice, and community perspectives across partnerships from a range of regions and topics. We are specifically interested in how different actors in these projects think about equity and work towards more equitable approaches in the context of their co-production work. This understanding is needed, as the federal government has increasingly focused on co-production approaches in the design of their programs and funding calls, and most recently the Biden administration has called on federal agencies to more intentionally center equity for underserved groups of people in their work (16). Furthermore, with the Biden administration’s focus on environmental and climate justice, the opportunity for researchers and their societal partners to engage in co-production is expanding. Numerous programs within federal agencies have embraced a co-production approach, such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Adaptation Partnerships (CAP; formerly called the Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments or RISA program) (9,17), Department of the Interior (DOI) Climate Adaptation Science Centers (CASCs)(18), and the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Climate Hubs. However, the actual implementation of co-production processes varies significantly (1,19), with multiple implications for the design of equitable partnerships. Researchers, their partners, and funders have frequently cited many tensions and challenges in the successful implementation of co-production, including higher resource demands and few systemic structures for support (20). Practically implementing co-production, especially with people who have been underrepresented in or historically excluded from research activities, must consider fairness and the accessibility of co-production processes. While co-production is often cited as important for environmental governance, issues like power and equity are infrequently addressed (15). To explore this topic, we identified and studied three projects that centered on equity in co-production from three federal climate programs (CASC, CAP, USDA Climate Hubs) in three different regions of the U.S. (Alaska, Northeast, Southeast). We aimed to identify consensus or divergence in perspectives related to equitable co-production processes to elevate effective practices and link co-production research and practice. Findings from interviews and a survey (explained further in Akerlof et al., 2023) informed a twoday hybrid workshop involving participants from the three case studies, as well as individuals representing research, governmental, non-governmental, and community organizations across the United States. Participants also included scholars of co-production, program coordinators, and people who participated in co-production projects on behalf of their communities. Several boundary spanners, those practitioners who work at the intersection of the production and use of science (21,22), also attended the workshop. The goals of the workshop were to discuss and build on what was learned from the three case studies, discuss the three distinct perspectives on equitable co-production that emerged from the pre-workshop research, and draft a framework for equitable co-production processes. During the workshop, participants considered the three perspectives on equitable co-production, defining equitable co-production for each and discussing the practical implications of each, including barriers and priorities for overcoming them. We aimed to address the question: How can federal climate programs support equitable co-production processes?

Report

U.S. Department of the Interior South Central Climate Science Center

On September 14, 2009, the Secretary of the Interior signed a Secretarial Order (No. 3289) entitled, "Addressing the Impacts of Climate Change on America's Water, Land, and Other Natural and Cultural Resources." The Order effectively established the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) Climate Science Centers (CSCs) for the purpose of integrating DOI science and management expertise with similar contributions from our partners to provide information to support strategic adaptation and mitigation efforts on public and private lands across the United States and internationally. The South Central Climate Science Center (SC CSC) is supported by a consortium of partners that include The University of Oklahoma, Texas Tech University, Louisiana State University, The Chickasaw Nation, The Choctaw Nation of Oklahoma, Oklahoma State University, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. Additionally, the SC CSC will collaborate with a number of other universities, State and federal agencies, and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) with interests and expertise in climate science. The primary partners of the SC CSC are the Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs), which include the Desert, Eastern Tallgrass Prairie and Big Rivers, Great Plains, Gulf Coast Prairie, Gulf Coastal Plains and Ozarks, and Southern Rockies. CSC collaborations are focused on common science priorities that address priority partner needs, eliminate redundancies in science, share scientific information and findings, and expand understanding of climate change impacts in the south-central United States and Mexico.

Arizona;Louisiana;Oklahoma;Texas

Landscapes of West Africa: A window on a changing world

Our global ecosystem is and has always been complex, dynamic, and in constant flux. Science tells us how natural forces of enormous power have shaped and reshaped Earth’s surface, atmosphere, climate, and biota again and again since the planet’s beginnings about 4.5 billion years ago. For most of the planet’s history those environmental changes were the result of the interaction of natural processes such as geology and climate and were described on the geological time scale in epochs spanning millions of years. When humankind appeared on Earth around 200,000 years ago the influence of human activity on the environment must have been small and localized. The influence of scattered small groups of people on the global ecosystem would have been overwhelmed by the forces of natural systems (Steffen and others, 207). Human population would not grow to 50 million (about 0.7 percent of the Earth’s current population) for another 197,000 years. Population growth accelerated over the centuries that followed until the planet was adding more than that 50 million people every year. Our planet is now home to roughly 7.3 billion people and we are adding 1 million more people roughly every 4.8 days (US Census Bureau, 2011). Before 1950, no one on Earth had lived through a doubling of the human population, but now some people have experienced a tripling in their lifetime (Cohen, 2003).

Book

Solar-system-wide significance of Mars polar science

1. The North Polar Layered Deposits contain thousands of ice layers that record accumulation and climate history for at least several million years, making the most accessible and most complete climate record aside from the Earth’s – and the only one to record the impact of large obliquity shifts. 2. Mars Polar Science is a diverse and integrated system spanning much of the planet, above and below the surface: geographic poles, mid- and high-latitudes, numerous active volatile processes that interact with the near-surface, and the lower and middle atmosphere circulations, even influencing the upper atmosphere and atmospheric escape. 3. Mars polar processes serves as an analogue and scientific link to numerous solar system bodies. Mars has two volatile cycles that influence surface processes, atmospheric processes, and climate cycles. Mars, with many data sets and observations, serves as a proxy for outer planets and moons that undergo the same physics but with other volatile species. Additionally, technology designed for Mars polar exploration benefits exploration elsewhere. 4. Mars Polar and Atmospheric Science results are critical for future human exploration and in situ resources and the study of planetary habitability.

Bulletin of the AAS

Restoring dryland water cycles for precipitation feedback and climate stability; a review

Drylands across the globe are experiencing intensifying water scarcity, land degradation, and hydroclimatic extremes. This review integrates evidence from multidecadal field studies, hydrologic monitoring, geomorphic and ecological assessments, remote sensing, and land–atmosphere science to evaluate how restoration influences key components of the terrestrial water cycle. Low-tech natural infrastructure in dryland streams (NIDS)—including check dams, leaky weirs, one-rock dams, and gabions—has emerged as a promising but under-synthesized nature-based solution for restoring hydrologic function in these environments. We describe the mechanisms through which these interventions modify runoff detention, infiltration, sediment and alluvial storage, shallow-groundwater recharge, vegetation recovery, and surface-energy partitioning, and we summarize outcomes across diverse dryland settings. Findings consistently show increased water residence time, enhanced soil-moisture storage, expanded riparian vegetation, extended flow duration, and shifts toward greater latent-heat flux—producing localized cooling and strengthened ecohydrological feedbacks. Building on these localized effects, we articulate a hypothesis that links the spatial extent of restoration, the density of NIDS per unit drainage area, and the magnitude of the latent-to-sensible-heat contrast generated by wetter post-rainfall conditions. Specifically, we hypothesize that when NIDS are implemented at densities permitted by topography and across areas large enough to maintain elevated soil moisture after storm events, the resulting increases in latent heat flux, surface cooling, and boundary-layer moistening may enhance moisture convergence and boundary-layer development, potentially increasing the likelihood or stability of convective precipitation, analogous to how reductions in these processes have contributed to regional drought intensification. These land–atmosphere feedbacks remain untested at scale but represent an important research Frontier. By integrating hydrologic, geomorphic, ecological, and atmospheric perspectives, this review provides a comprehensive framework for considering how low-tech, landscape-scale interventions can strengthen watershed resilience and contribute to climate-relevant nature-based solutions.

Arizona

Report from the Ice and Climate Evolution Science Analysis group (ICE-SAG)

This document is the final report of the Ice and Climate Evolution Science Analysis Group (ICESAG) that was formed by the Mars Exploration Program Analysis Group (MEPAG) as part of its preparations for the upcoming NASA Planetary Science Decadal Survey for 2023 through 2032 (see §1). Through telecons, one face-to-face meeting, and discussions with experts in relevant topics, ICE-SAG has identified high-priority science questions and key measurements that are needed to address them as well as the 2018 MEPAG Goals and the 2013-2022 NASA Planetary Science Decadal Survey goals [V&V, 2011] pertaining to ice1 and climate. Obtaining these measurements would yield dramatic improvements in our understanding of the climate history of Mars, which is critical to investigations of Martian geologic history and habitability and will also inform the potential of buried water ices as in situ resources for future human missions. In many ways, the Martian climate system serves as a laboratory for a broader understanding of planetary climate systems including the Earth’s, which is substantially more complex due to a denser atmosphere, a more active planetary interior, and interactions with oceans and abundant life, while operating under much more subtle orbital forcing. Thus, advancements in Martian climate science will have far-reaching impacts that extend to studies of the Earth and other planetary bodies.

Report

USGS global change science strategy: A framework for understanding and responding to climate and land-use change

This U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Global Change Science Strategy expands on the Climate Variability and Change science component of the USGS 2007 Science Strategy, “Facing Tomorrow’s Challenges: USGS Science in the Coming Decade” (U.S. Geological Survey, 2007). Here we embrace the broad definition of global change provided in the U.S. Global Change Research Act of 1990 (Public Law 101–606,104 Stat. 3096–3104)—“Changes in the global environment (including alterations in climate, land productivity, oceans or other water resources, atmospheric chemistry, and ecological systems) that may alter the capacity of the Earth to sustain life”—with a focus on climate and land-use change. There are three major characteristics of this science strategy. First, it addresses the science required to broadly inform global change policy, while emphasizing the needs of natural-resource managers and reflecting the role of the USGS as the science provider for the Department of the Interior and other resource-management agencies. Second, the strategy identifies core competencies, noting 10 critical capabilities and strengths the USGS uses to overcome key problem areas. We highlight those areas in which the USGS is a science leader, recognizing the strong partnerships and effective collaboration that are essential to address complex global environmental challenges. Third, it uses a query-based approach listing key research questions that need to be addressed to create an agenda for hypothesis-driven global change science organized under six strategic goals. Overall, the strategy starts from where we are, provides a vision for where we want to go, and then describes high-priority strategic actions, including outcomes, products, and partnerships that can get us there. Global change science is a well-defined research field with strong linkages to the ecosystems, water, energy and minerals, natural hazards, and environmental health components of the USGS Science Strategy (2007). When science strategies that cover these other components are developed, coordinated implementation will be necessary to achieve Bureau-level synergies and optimize capabilities and expertise. In October 2010, USGS realigned its management and budget structure to implement its 2007 Science Strategy. The new organizational structure, in which “Global Change” is one of seven key mission areas, lends itself to the advancement of the established six strategic goals. USGS global change science is formally represented by the “Climate and Land-Use Change” Mission Area in the FY 2012 budget (USGS, 2011). This plan was developed by the USGS Global Change Science Strategy Planning Team (SSPT) appointed by the USGS Director on March 4, 2010 and charged with developing a Global Change Science Strategy for the coming decade (McNutt, 2010). USGS managers and science staff are the main audience for this science strategy. This document is also intended to serve as the foundation for consistent USGS collaboration and communication with partners and stakeholders.

Open-File Report

The Pacific Islands Climate Science Center five-year science agenda, 2014-2018

From the heights of Mauna Kea on Hawaiʻi Island to the depths of the Mariana Trench, from densely populated cities to sparse rural indigenous communities and uninhabited sandy atolls, the Pacific region encompasses diverse associations of peoples and places that are directly affected by changes to the atmosphere, ocean, and land. The peoples of the Pacific are among the first to observe and experience the effects of global climatic changes. Because the Pacific region is predominantly composed of vast ocean expanses punctuated only by small, isolated emergent islands and atolls, marine processes are critical factors in the region’s climate systems, and their impacts occur here to a greater degree than in continental regions. Rates of sea-level rise in the region during the modern altimetry period exceed the global rate, with the highest increases occurring in the western North Pacific (Cazenave and Llovel, 2010; Nerem and others, 2010; Timmermann and others, 2010). The ocean has also warmed during this period. Since the 1970s, sea-surface temperature has increased at a rate of 0.13 to 0.41 °F (0.07 to 0.23 °C) per decade, depending on the location (Keener and others, 2012a). Ocean chemistry has changed during this period as well, with surface pH having dropped by 0.1 pH units (Feely and others, 2009; Doney and others, 2012). Over the past century, air temperature has increased throughout the Pacific region. In Hawaiʻi, average temperatures increased by 0.08 °F per decade during the period 1919 to 2006, and in recent years, the rate of increase has been accelerating, particularly at high elevations (Giambelluca and others, 2008). In the western North Pacific, temperatures also increased over the past 60 years (Lander and Guard, 2003; Lander, 2004; Lander and Khosrowpanah, 2004; Kruk and others, 2013), with a concurrent warming trend in the central South Pacific since the 1950s (Australian Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO, 2011).

Hawai'i

Geology for a changing world 2010-2020-Implementing the U.S. Geological Survey science strategy

This report describes a science strategy for the geologic activities of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) for the years 2010-2020. It presents six goals with accompanying strategic actions and products that implement the science directions of USGS Circular 1309, 'Facing Tomorrow's Challenges-U.S. Geological Survey Science in the Decade 2007-2017.' These six goals focus on providing the geologic underpinning needed to wisely use our natural resources, understand and mitigate hazards and environmental change, and understand the relationship between humans and the environment. The goals emphasize the critical role of the USGS in providing long-term research, monitoring, and assessments for the Nation and the world. Further, they describe measures that must be undertaken to ensure geologic expertise and knowledge for the future. The natural science issues facing today's world are complex and cut across many scientific disciplines. The Earth is a system in which atmosphere, oceans, land, and life are all connected. Rocks and soils contain the answers to important questions about the origin of energy and mineral resources, the evolution of life, climate change, natural hazards, ecosystem structures and functions, and the movements of nutrients and toxicants. The science of geology has the power to help us understand the processes that link the physical and biological world so that we can model and forecast changes in the system. Ensuring the success of this strategy will require integration of geological knowledge with the other natural sciences and extensive collaboration across USGS science centers and with partners in Federal, State, and local agencies, academia, industry, nongovernmental organizations and, most importantly, the American public. The first four goals of this report describe the scientific issues facing society in the next 10 years and the actions and products needed to respond to these issues. The final two goals focus on the expertise and infrastructure needed to ensure the long-term sustainability of the geological sciences in the USGS. The ultimate goal of USGS science and of the strategy laid out in this document is to contribute to the development of a sustainable society that operates in harmony with the Earth systems that society depends upon. As we begin the second decade of the 21st century, our Nation faces growing challenges in resource availability, climate and environmental change, and natural hazards. Meeting these challenges will require strong collaboration across the natural and social sciences and extensive partnerships with both the public and private sectors. The six goals described in this document represent a mix of scientific focus areas and operational necessities that together provide a comprehensive roadmap for USGS geologic science to effectively contribute to the USGS mission, providing science for a changing world.

Circular

Advances in a distributed approach for ocean model data interoperability

An infrastructure for earth science data is emerging across the globe based on common data models and web services. As we evolve from custom file formats and web sites to standards-based web services and tools, data is becoming easier to distribute, find and retrieve, leaving more time for science. We describe recent advances that make it easier for ocean model providers to share their data, and for users to search, access, analyze and visualize ocean data using MATLAB® and Python®. These include a technique for modelers to create aggregated, Climate and Forecast (CF) metadata convention datasets from collections of non-standard Network Common Data Form (NetCDF) output files, the capability to remotely access data from CF-1.6-compliant NetCDF files using the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) Sensor Observation Service (SOS), a metadata standard for unstructured grid model output (UGRID), and tools that utilize both CF and UGRID standards to allow interoperable data search, browse and access. We use examples from the U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS®) Coastal and Ocean Modeling Testbed, a project in which modelers using both structured and unstructured grid model output needed to share their results, to compare their results with other models, and to compare models with observed data. The same techniques used here for ocean modeling output can be applied to atmospheric and climate model output, remote sensing data, digital terrain and bathymetric data.

Journal of Marine Science and Engineering

Using scenarios to evaluate vulnerability of grassland communities to climate change in the Southern Great Plains of the United States

Scenario planning is a useful tool for identifying key vulnerabilities of ecological systems to changing climates, informed by the potential outcomes for a set of divergent, plausible, and relevant climate scenarios. We evaluated potential vulnerabilities of grassland communities to changing climate in the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and the Landscape Conservation Design pilot area (LCD) for the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Science Applications Program, Great Plains Landscape Conservation Cooperative. Four climate scenarios (warm-dry, warm-wet, hot-dry, and hot-wet) from atmospheric-ocean general circulation models were selected to represent a suite of plausible future climatic conditions. For each scenario, and for contemporary climatic conditions, we predicted the spatial patterns of relative productivity for indicator grass species using statistical models of relative above-ground net primary productivity (hereafter, productivity) based on temperature, precipitation, and soil texture (percent sand, silt, or clay). Two indicator grass species were selected to represent each of four focal grassland communities: semi-desert grasslands, shortgrass prairie, mixed-grass prairie, and tallgrass prairie. Changes in spatial patterning of bioclimatic conditions conducive for each indicator species as predicted for each climate scenario relative to current land use were used to evaluate potential vulnerability and conservation opportunities for grassland communities. Specifically, the following questions were addressed for each focal grassland community: (1) Where is the productivity of each species predicted to increase, decrease, or remain stable relative to estimated contemporary productivity for the SGP and LCD pilot area, (2) where is the productivity of the two indicator species for each community predicted to increase, decrease, or remain stable, (3) which grassland communities are most vulnerable to changes in composition and vertical structure, (4) how do current land-use patterns contribute to potential vulnerabilities of grassland communities for the climate scenarios evaluated, and (5) how can managers use the vulnerabilities identified to evaluate conservation opportunities in the SGP and LCD? Current land-use patterns, in combination with the potential effects of a changing climate, pose greater risks to mixed-grass and tallgrass prairies of the SGP compared to semi-desert grasslands and shortgrass prairie. For most climate scenarios evaluated, bioclimatic conditions conducive to the taller species were predicted to contract within some or all the current distribution of mixed-grass and tallgrass prairies within the SGP. An increase in precipitation, however, could potentially ameliorate the negative effects of increasing temperatures as evidenced by higher productivity for the hot-wet scenario compared to the other scenarios for the most vulnerable species. Compounding their greater vulnerability to increasing temperatures coupled with decreasing precipitation, the mixed-grass and tallgrass prairies have been greatly fragmented and converted, primarily by agriculture. In contrast, the climate scenarios evaluated are generally conducive to stable or increasing productivity of indicator species for semi-desert grasslands and shortgrass prairie. In addition, conversion and fragmentation of semi-desert grasslands and shortgrass prairie were relatively low. These results suggest that the synergistic effects of land use and changing climatic conditions could have the greatest effects on the composition and structure of mixed-grass and tallgrass prairies in the SGP. ScienceBase data release files that support this report are available at https://doi.org/10.5066/P9DGJHEP (Manier and others, 2019).

Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oklahoma,

Climate Change and Water Resources Management: A Federal Perspective

Many challenges, including climate change, face the Nation's water managers. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has provided estimates of how climate may change, but more understanding of the processes driving the changes, the sequences of the changes, and the manifestation of these global changes at different scales could be beneficial. Since the changes will likely affect fundamental drivers of the hydrological cycle, climate change may have a large impact on water resources and water resources managers. The purpose of this interagency report prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation), and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is to explore strategies to improve water management by tracking, anticipating, and responding to climate change. This report describes the existing and still needed underpinning science crucial to addressing the many impacts of climate change on water resources management.

Circular