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BSSA: Worth thinking about

The Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America ( BSSA ) is a powerful community project that has helped us share the information necessary to keep our field moving forward since 1911. In some ways, BSSA is much like it has always been, and each issue provides us with a collection of research that has been improved by the peer review process and copyedited, typeset, and printed to make it easily readable. But BSSA has also constantly evolved, and the online edition with full-text searching of all content back to volume 1 and linked references that speed our navigation through the related literature is unlike anything J. C. Branner could have imagined when he edited the first issue.

Seismological Research Letters

Accounting for site effects in probabilistic seismic hazard analyses of southern California: Overview of the SCEC Phase III Report

This article presents an overview of the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) Phase-III effort to determine the extent to which probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) can be improved by accounting for site effects. The contributions made in this endeavor are represented in the various articles that compose this special issue of BSSA. Given the somewhat arbitrary nature of the site-effect distinction, it must be carefully defined in any given context. With respect to PSHA, we define the site effect as the response, relative to an attenuation relationship, averaged over all damaging earthquakes in the region. A diligent effort has been made to identify any attributes that predispose a site to greater or lower levels of shaking. The most detailed maps of Quaternary geology are not found to be helpful; either they are overly detailed in terms of distinguishing different amplification factors or present southern California strong-motion observations are inadequate to reveal their superiority. A map based on the average shear-wave velocity in the upper 30 m, however, is found to delineate significantly different amplification factors. A correlation of amplification with basin depth is also found to be significant, implying up to a factor of two difference between the shallowest and deepest parts of the Los Angeles basin. In fact, for peak acceleration the basin-depth correction is more influential than the 30-m shear-wave velocity. Questions remain, however, as to whether basin depth is a proxy for some other site attribute. In spite of these significant and important site effects, the standard deviation of an attenuation relationship (the prediction error) is not significantly reduced by making such corrections. That is, given the influence of basin-edge-induced waves, subsurface focusing, and scattering in general, any model that attempts to predict ground motion with only a few parameters will have a substantial intrinsic variability. Our best hope for reducing such uncertainties is via waveform modeling based on first principals of physics. Finally, questions remain with respect to the overall reliability of attenuation relationships at large magnitudes and short distances. Current discrepancies between viable models produce up to a factor of 3 difference among predicted 10% in 50-yr exceedance levels, part of which results from the uncertain influence of sediment nonlinearity.

California

Predominant-period site classification for response spectra prediction equations in Italy

We propose a site‐classification scheme based on the predominant period of the site, as determined from the average horizontal‐to‐vertical (H/V) spectral ratios of ground motion. Our scheme extends Zhao et al. (2006) classifications by adding two classes, the most important of which is defined by flat H/V ratios with amplitudes less than 2. The proposed classification is investigated by using 5%‐damped response spectra from Italian earthquake records. We select a dataset of 602 three‐component analog and digital recordings from 120 earthquakes recorded at 214 seismic stations within a hypocentral distance of 200 km. Selected events are in the moment‐magnitude range 4.0≤M w ≤6.8 and focal depths from a few kilometers to 46 km. We computed H/V ratios for these data and used them to classify each site into one of six classes. We then investigate the impact of this classification scheme on empirical ground‐motion prediction equations (GMPEs) by comparing its performance with that of the conventional rock/soil classification. Although the adopted approach results in only a small reduction of the overall standard deviation, the use of H/V spectral ratios in site classification does capture the signature of sites with flat frequency‐response, as well as deep and shallow‐soil profiles, characterized by long‐ and short‐period resonance, respectively; in addition, the classification scheme is relatively quick and inexpensive, which is an advantage over schemes based on measurements of shear‐wave velocity.

BSSA

Stable stress‐drop measurements and their variability: Implications for ground‐motion prediction

We estimate the arms‐stress drop, Graphic, (Hanks, 1979) using acceleration time records of 59 earthquakes from two earthquake sequences in eastern Honshu, Japan. These acceleration‐based static stress drops compare well to stress drops calculated for the same events by Baltay et al. (2011) using an empirical Green’s function (eGf) approach. This agreement supports the assumption that earthquake acceleration time histories in the bandwidth between the corner frequency and a maximum observed frequency can be considered white, Gaussian, noise. Although the Graphic is computationally simpler than the eGf‐based Graphic‐stress drop, and is used as the “stress parameter” to describe the earthquake source in ground‐motion prediction equations, we find that it only compares well to the Graphic at source‐station distances of ∼20 km or less because there is no consideration of whole‐path anelastic attenuation or scattering. In these circumstances, the correlation between the Graphic and Graphic is strong. Events with high and low stress drops obtained through the eGf method have similarly high and low Graphic. We find that the inter‐event standard deviation of stress drop, for the population of earthquakes considered, is similar for both methods, 0.40 for the Graphic method and 0.42 for the Graphic, in log10 units, provided we apply the ∼20 km distance restriction to Graphic. This indicates that the observed variability is inherent to the source, rather than attributable to uncertainties in stress‐drop estimates

BSSA

Use of fragile geologic structures as indicators of unexceeded ground motions and direct constraints on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis

We present a quantitative procedure for constraining probabilistic seismic hazard analysis results at a given site, based on the existence of fragile geologic structures at that site. We illustrate this procedure by analyzing precarious rocks and undamaged lithophysae at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. The key metric is the probability that the feature would have survived to the present day, assuming that the hazard results are correct. If the fragile geologic structure has an extremely low probability of having survived (which would be inconsistent with the observed survival of the structure), then the calculations illustrate how much the hazard would have to be reduced to result in a nonnegligible survival probability. The calculations are able to consider structures the predicted failure probabilities of which are a function of one or more ground‐motion parameters, as well as structures that either rapidly or slowly evolved to their current state over time. These calculations are the only way to validate seismic hazard curves over long periods of time.

BSSA

Continuity of the Reelfoot fault across the Cottonwood Grove and Ridgely faults of the New Madrid Seismic Zone

Previous investigators have argued that the northwest-striking Reelfoot fault of northwest Tennessee and southeastern Missouri is segmented. One segment boundary is at the intersection of the northeast-striking Cottonwood Grove and Ridgely strike-slip faults with the Reelfoot fault. We use seismic reflection and geologic mapping to locate and determine the history of the Reelfoot South fault across this boundary zone. One reflection profile revealed a southwest-dipping (81°) Reelfoot South reverse fault that displaces the top of the Paleozoic 65 m, Cretaceous 40 m, Paleocene 31 m, Eocene Wilcox Group 20 m, and Eocene Memphis Sand 16 m. A second reflection profile reveals a north-dipping (84°) reverse fault 4.3 km south of the Reelfoot South fault, which defines the southwest margin of the Tiptonville dome. A geologic profile of the base of the ∼3:1 Ma Upland complex (Mississippi River terrace alluvium) within theMississippi River bluffs reveals ∼6 m of displacement across the Reelfoot South fault. Similarly, Quaternary stream terrace distribution suggests ∼6 m of Reelfoot South hanging-wall (Tiptonville dome) uplift that is probably Holocene. Fault strike trends show the Reelfoot fault and its hanging-wall Tiptonville dome are not laterally offset across the Cottonwood Grove and Ridgely faults. The Reelfoot South fault northwest and southeast of the Cottonwood Grove and Ridgely faults has very similar vertical displacement on common stratigraphic marker horizons in the upper 900 m. These data indicate the Reelfoot fault/Tiptonville dome has acted as one continuous fault zone across the Cottonwood Grove and Ridgely faults since Late Cretaceous.

Missouri, Tennessee

GLASS3: A standalone multi-scale seismic detection associator

The automated global real-time association of phase picks into seismic sources comes with unique challenges when simultaneously monitoring at local, regional and global scales. High spatial variability in seismic station density, transitory seismic data availability, and time-varying noise characteristics of individual stations must be considered in the design of an associator that is fast and accurate with a low false association rate. These challenges are particularly apparent at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC), which monitors seismicity in near-real time on local, regional, and global scales using seismic data from roughly 2,100 real-time seismic stations. In order to fully leverage this large dataset, NEIC developed a stand-alone, self-configuring seismic phase associator, GLASS3 (GLobal ASSociator 3) that simultaneously processes variably scaled 3D association webs, each with a unique set of nucleation criteria (e.g., nucleation stack threshold). GLASS3 has many useful features for real-time monitoring including its computational efficiency, instantaneous pick processing, and on-the-fly configurability such as the creation and removal of targeted association webs and updates to supporting station metadata. GLASS3 runs both as part of a real-time event processing system, and as a configurable standalone associator that can be applied to a large variety of seismic problems. Here we describe the GLASS3 algorithm and demonstrate (including input data and configuration files) its use in associating phase-ambiguous picks on multiple scales.

BSSA

A big problem for small earthquakes: Benchmarking routine magnitudes and conversion relationships with coda-envelope-derived Mw in southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma

Earthquake magnitudes are widely relied upon measures of earthquake size. Although moment magnitude ( ⁠ M w "> M w Mw ⁠ ) has become the established standard for moderate and large earthquakes, difficulty in reliably measuring seismic moments for small (generally M w &lt; 4 "> M w < 4 Mw<4 ⁠ ) earthquakes has meant that magnitudes for these events remain plagued by a patchwork of inconsistent measurement scales. Because of this, magnitudes of small earthquakes and statistics derived from them can be biased. Furthermore, because small earthquakes are much more numerous than large ones, many applications, such as seismic hazard modeling, depend critically on analysis of events characterized by magnitudes other than M w "> M w Mw ⁠ . To assess this problem, we apply coda envelope analysis to reliably determine moment magnitudes for a case study of small earthquakes from northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Not surprisingly, we find significant differences among M L "> M L ML ⁠ , m b L g "> m b L g mbLg ⁠ , and M w "> M w Mw for M ∼2–4 earthquakes examined here. More troublingly, we find that relations designed to convert other magnitudes to M w "> M w Mw ⁠ , which are relied upon for important applications such as seismic hazard analysis, often increase rather than decrease this bias for our dataset. In our case study, we find that converted magnitudes can result in a systematic bias sometimes exceeding 0.5 magnitude units, a difference that typically corresponds to a factor of ∼3 in seismicity rate. Moreover, we find a correspondingly large bias in Gutenberg–Richter b ‐values, controlled primarily by inaccurate magnitude scaling in the conversion relationships. Although this study focuses on a relatively small geographic area, we can expect that similar issues exist with varying severity in other regions. Therefore, magnitudes of small earthquakes and their associated statistics, including seismicity rates and b ‐values, should be treated with caution.

Kansas, Oklahoma

Estimation of site terms in ground-motion models for California using horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratios from microtremor

The horizontal‐to‐vertical spectral ratios from microtremor (mHVSR) data obtained at 196 seismic stations in California are used to evaluate three alternative microtremor‐based proxies for site amplification for use in ground‐motion models (GMMs): the site fundamental period ( ⁠ f 0 "> f 0 ⁠ ), the period‐dependent amplitude of the mHVSR( T ), and the normalized amplitude of the mHVSR( T ). The alternative parameters are evaluated for the sites with and without measurements of V S 30 "> V S 30 ⁠ . If a V S 30 "> V S 30 measurement is not available for a site, then f 0 "> f 0 has the highest correlation with the site amplification for short periods ( T <1 s) and the normalized amplitude of the mHVSR( T ) has the highest correlation for long periods ( T ≥1 s). If a measurement of the V S 30 "> V S 30 is available for a site, then the normalized amplitude of the mHVSR( T ) has the highest correlation for the site amplification not explained by V S 30 "> V S 30 for all periods. For both cases, the correlations are strongest at the longer periods as mHVSR( T ) measurements excel at providing valuable information for sites with long‐period amplification due to the deeper velocity structure. In particular, for sites with a V S 30 "> V S 30 measurement, the normalized mHVSR( T ) amplitude provides more information about the long‐period site terms than the basin depth currently used in GMMs. Empirical models of the median and standard deviation of the site terms based on the normalized mHVSR( T ) curves are developed for the two cases. These models can be used directly in the ASK14 GMM to modify the median and aleatory standard deviation or they can be used to estimate the site‐specific site term in the context of a partially nonergodic GMM. Including the mHVSR( T ) measurement can have a significant effect on estimates of the ground motion at a site: the range 5%–95% on the observed HVSR( T ) values corresponds to factors of 0.6–1.6 for the median spectral acceleration for periods between 0.5 and 4 s.

California