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USGS2022

Collaborative hubs: Making the most of predictive epidemic modeling

The COVID-19 pandemic has made it clear that epidemic models play an important role in how governments and the public understand and respond to infectious disease crises. In the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, models were used first to estimate the true number of infections, then to provide estimates of key parameters, to generate short-term forecasts of outbreak trends, and to quantify the possible effects of different interventions on the unfolding epidemic. In contrast to the central coordinating role played by major national or international agencies in weather-related emergencies, pandemic modeling efforts were initially scattered across many individual research institutions and academic groups. Differences in modeling approaches and assumptions of each individual effort led to contrasting results that at times contributed to confusion in public perception of the pandemic. For this reason, recent efforts to publicly coordinate modeling efforts in so-called “hubs” have provided governments, public health partners, and the public with assessments and forecasts that reflect the consensus (or lack thereof) in the modeling community. This has been achieved by openly and transparently synthesizing uncertainties across different individual modeling approaches and facilitating comparisons between them.

American Journal of Public Health↗

USGS2009

Using GIS to assess priorities of infrastructure and health needs of colonias along the United States-Mexico border

Colonias, which are unincorporated border setdements in the United. States, have emerged in rural areas without the governance and services normally provided by local government. Colonia residents live in poverty and lack adequate health care, potable water, and sanitation systems. These conditions create substantial health risks for themselves and surrounding communities. By 2001, more than 1,400 colonias were identified in Texas. Cooperation with several Federal and Texas state agencies has allowed the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to improve colonia Geographic Information System (GIS) boundaries and develop the Colonia Health, Infrastructure, and Platting Status tool (CHIPS). Together, the GIS boundaries and CHIPS aid the Texas government in prioritizing the limited funds that are available for infrastructure improvement. CHIPS's report: generator can be tailored, to the needs of the user, providing either broad or specific output. CHIPS is publicly available on the U.S. Geological Survey Border Environmental Health Initiative website at http://borderhealth.cr. usgs.gov.

Journal of Latin American Geography↗

USGS2006

Avian influenza virus and free-ranging wild birds

Recent media and news reports and other information implicate wild birds in the spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza in Asia and Eastern Europe. Although there is little information concerning highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses in wild birds, scientists have amassed a large amount of data on low-pathogenicity avian influenza viruses during decades of research with wild birds. This knowledge can provide sound guidance to veterinarians, public health professionals, the general public, government agencies, and other entities with concerns about avian influenza.

Asia, Eastern Europe↗

USGS2009

Changes in West Nile virus seroprevalence and antibody titers among Wisconsin mesopredators 2003-2006

After the 2001 occurrence of West Nile virus (WNV) in Wisconsin (WI), we collected sera, during 2003–2006, from south-central WI mesopredators. We tested these sera to determine WNV antibody prevalence and geometric mean antibody titer (GMAT). Four-fold higher antibody prevalence and 2-fold higher GMAT in 2003–2004 indicated greater exposure of mesopredators to WNV during the apparent epizootic phase. The period 2005–2006 was likely the enzootic phase because WNV antibody prevalence fell to a level similar to other flaviviruses. Our results suggest that, in mesopredators, vector-borne transmission is the primary route of infection and WNV antibodies persist for < 1 year. Mesopredators may be sensitive indicators of West Nile virus spill-over into humans and horses. Mesopredator sero-surveys may complement dead crow surveillance by providing additional data for the timing of public health interventions. Research is needed to clarify the dynamics of WNV infection in these mammals and their role as potential WNV amplifiers.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2009

Maintaining the competitiveness of the American Fisheries Society journals: An assessment based on influence and cost-effectiveness

Recent changes in the landscape of scientific publishing prompted the Publications Overview Committee of the American Fisheries Society (AFS) to review the Society's portfolio of scientific journals. We evaluated journals based on metrics in two categories: (1) citation-based measures of the influence of a journal on the scientific literature, and (2) measures of the cost-effectiveness of a journal (citation rate adjusted for subscription cost). Over the long-term, we found that ecology journals had far stronger citation-based influence than fisheries and aquatic sciences journals, and that journals publishing primarily basic research had stronger influence than journals publishing applied research (including four AFS journals and Fisheries magazine). In evaluating the current status of fisheries and aquatic sciences journals, we found that metrics of influence and cost-effectiveness provided considerably different portrayals of journals relative to their peers. In terms of citation-based influence, we found that the AFS journal Transactions of the American Fisheries Society (TAFS) and Fisheries magazine were competitive with highly regarded peer fisheries journals, but that North American Journal of Aquaculture (NAJA) and Journal of Aquatic Animal Health (JAAH) were less influential than their peers. The citation-based influence of North American Journal of Fisheries Management (NAJFM) was intermediate between TAFS/Fisheries and NAJA/JAAH . For journals like NAJFM and NAJA , we expect that much of the scientific influence on policy and management is not captured by citations in the primary literature, and alternative methods of evaluation may be needed. All of the AFS journals ranked highly with regard to cost-effectiveness because their subscription costs are low, and these rankings are in accordance with membership needs and the strategic mission of AFS to provide broad and timely dissemination of scientific information. We conclude by suggesting ways to increase the influence of AFS journals without compromising their accessibility and affordability, and offer advice about methods and frequency for future journal evaluations.

Fisheries↗

USGS1980

Effect of delayed reporting of band recoveries on survival estimates

Brownie et al. (U.S. Fish and Wildl. Serv., Resource Publ. 131, 1978) presented 14 models based on an array of explicit assumptions for the study of survival in avian populations. These methods are replacing the life table methods previously used to estimate survival rates (e.g., Burnham and Anderson, J. Wildl. Manage. , 43: 356-366, 1979). The new methods allow survival or recovery rates, or both, to be constant, time-specific, or time- and age-specific. In studies to estimate survival rates for birds the data are often from recoveries of birds shot or found dead during the hunting season and reported to the Bird Banding Laboratory by sportsmen, conservation agency employees, or the general public. This note examines the bias in estimating annual survival due to a proportion of the recoveries being incorrectly reported a year late. Specifically, a few recoveries each year of, for example, adult male American Widgeon ( Anas americana ) banded in California are reported as being recovered in year i + 1 when in fact they were actually recovered the previous year i. Delayed reporting might typically be caused by people finding a band in their health clothing in the fall of the year and, being embarrassed about their failure to report the band when it was taken, report it a year late not mentioning the actual year of recovery. Heuristically, delayed reporting should bias estimated annual survival rates upwards because it appears from the data that the birds corresponding to the "delayed" recoveries actually lived an additional year.

Journal of Field Ornithology↗

USGS1985

Professional registration of government engineers

Government engineers often are not required to be registered in the state in which they practice, even though their counterparts in the private sector must be registered. Government engineers have a responsibility to safeguard the public health and safety, and must develop in the public a sense of confidence that the public trust is in good hands. One way to generate this confidence is by engineering registration. The American Society of Civil Engineers views professional registration as an appropriate requirement for engineers, including those in government. The National Society of Professional Engineers makes registration a requirement for the grade of member and full privileges in the society. Some Federal agencies require engineering registration for certain positions in their agencies. Engineers in government service should consider the value of engineering registration to themselves and to their agencies and take pride in their professions and in their own capabilities by becoming registered engineers. They should also take steps to encourage their agencies to give more attention to engineering registration, particularly as a qualification for certain positions and as a requirement for senior positions in the organization.

Journal of Professional Issues in Engineering↗

USGS2017

Management of arthropod pathogen vectors in North America: Minimizing adverse effects on pollinators

Tick and mosquito management is important to public health protection. At the same time, growing concerns about declines of pollinator species raise the question of whether vector control practices might affect pollinator populations. We report the results of a task force of the North American Pollinator Protection Campaign (NAPPC) that examined potential effects of vector management practices on pollinators, and how these programs could be adjusted to minimize negative effects on pollinating species. The main types of vector control practices that might affect pollinators are landscape manipulation, biocontrol, and pesticide applications. Some current practices already minimize effects of vector control on pollinators (e.g., short-lived pesticides and application-targeting technologies). Nontarget effects can be further diminished by taking pollinator protection into account in the planning stages of vector management programs. Effects of vector control on pollinator species often depend on specific local conditions (e.g., proximity of locations with abundant vectors to concentrations of floral resources), so planning is most effective when it includes collaborations of local vector management professionals with local experts on pollinators. Interventions can then be designed to avoid pollinators (e.g., targeting applications to avoid blooming times and pollinator nesting habitats), while still optimizing public health protection. Research on efficient targeting of interventions, and on effects on pollinators of emerging technologies, will help mitigate potential deleterious effects on pollinators in future management programs. In particular, models that can predict effects of integrated pest management on vector-borne pathogen transmission, along with effects on pollinator populations, would be useful for collaborative decision-making.

Journal of Medical Entomology↗

USGS2015

Modeling the present and future geographic distribution of the Lone star tick, Amblyomma americanum (Ixodida: Ixodidae ), in the continental United States

The Lone star tick ( Amblyomma americanum L.) is the primary vector for pathogens of significant public health importance in North America, yet relatively little is known about its current and potential future distribution. Building on a published summary of tick collection records, we used an ensemble modeling approach to predict the present-day and future distribution of climatically suitable habitat for establishment of the Lone star tick within the continental United States. Of the nine climatic predictor variables included in our five present-day models, average vapor pressure in July was by far the most important determinant of suitable habitat. The present-day ensemble model predicted an essentially contiguous distribution of suitable habitat extending to the Atlantic coast east of the 100th western meridian and south of the 40th northern parallel, but excluding a high elevation region associated with the Appalachian Mountains. Future ensemble predictions for 2061–2080 forecasted a stable western range limit, northward expansion of suitable habitat into the Upper Midwest and western Pennsylvania, and range contraction along portions of the Gulf coast and the lower Mississippi river valley. These findings are informative for raising awareness of A. americanum -transmitted pathogens in areas where the Lone Star tick has recently or may become established.

American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene↗

USGS2010

Ranking Alaska moose nutrition: Signals to begin liberal antlerless harvests

We focused on describing low nutritional status in an increasing moose ( Alces alces gigas ) population with reduced predation in Game Management Unit (GMU) 20A near Fairbanks, Alaska, USA. A skeptical public disallowed liberal antlerless harvests of this moose population until we provided convincing data on low nutritional status. We ranked nutritional status in 15 Alaska moose populations (in boreal forests and coastal tundra) based on multiyear twinning rates. Data on age-of-first-reproduction and parturition rates provided a ranking consistent with twinning rates in the 6 areas where comparative data were available. Also, short-yearling mass provided a ranking consistent with twinning rates in 5 of the 6 areas where data were available. Data from 5 areas implied an inverse relationship between twinning rate and browse removal rate. Only in GMU 20A did nutritional indices reach low levels where justification for halting population growth was apparent, which supports prior findings that nutrition is a minor factor limiting most Alaska moose populations compared to predation. With predator reductions, the GMU 20A moose population increased from 1976 until liberal antlerless harvests in 2004. During 1997–2005, GMU 20A moose exhibited the lowest nutritional status reported to date for wild, noninsular, North American populations, including 1) delayed reproduction until moose reached 36 months of age and the lowest parturition rate among 36-month-old moose (29%, n = 147); 2) the lowest average multiyear twinning rates from late-May aerial surveys ( x̄ = 7%, SE = 0.9%, n = 9 yr, range = 3–10%) and delayed twinning until moose reached 60 months of age; 3) the lowest average mass of female short-yearlings in Alaska ( x̄ = 155 ± 1.6 [SE] kg in the Tanana Flats subpopulation, up to 58 kg below average masses found elsewhere); and 4) high removal (42%) of current annual browse biomass compared to 9–26% elsewhere in boreal forests. When average multiyear twinning rates in GMU 20A (sampled during 1960–2005) declined to <10% in the mid- to late 1990s, we began encouraging liberal antlerless harvests, but only conservative annual harvests of 61–76 antlerless moose were achieved during 1996–2001. Using data in the context of our broader ranking system, we convinced skeptical citizen advisory committees to allow liberal antlerless harvests of 600–690 moose in 2004 and 2005, with the objective of halting population growth of the 16,000–17,000 moose; total harvests were 7–8% of total prehunt numbers. The resulting liberal antlerless harvests served to protect the moose population's health and habitat and to fulfill a mandate for elevated yield. Liberal antlerless harvests appear justified to halt population growth when multiyear twinning rates average ≤10% and ≥1 of the following signals substantiate low nutritional status: <50% of 36-month-old moose are parturient, average multiyear short-yearling mass is <175 kg, or >35% of annual browse biomass is removed by moose.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗