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Preparing for climate change: The potential consequences of climate variability and change

Over the past decades, scientific research has greatly advanced the knowledge and understanding of global environmental change. Research supported by the U. S. Global Change Research Programme (USGCRP) and research and assessment results by international organizations such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the World Climate Research Program (WCRP), and the International Geosphere and Biosphere Programme (IGBP) have demonstrated that human activities exert powerful environmental influences on global, regional, and local scales. Recent findings by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 1997) indicate that human activities are increasing the atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and other greenhouse gases such as nitrous oxide (NO x ), methane (CH 4 ), chlorofluorocarbons (CFCS), partially halogenated fluorocarbons, and ozone (O 3 ), which alter radiative balances, and tend to warm the Earth’s surface. These changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols constitute key factors in global and regional changes in temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables, resulting in local and regional changes in soil moisture, an increase in global mean sea level, and prospects for more severe extreme high temperature events, floods, and droughts in some places. In the United States and elsewhere in the industrialized world, energy use contributes to global warming more than any other human activity. This is because most of our energy comes from carbon-based fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas). Fossil fuels provide energy for a variety of purposes, including transporting goods and people, manufacturing products, heating and cooling buildings, lighting spaces, and cooking foods. Each year U.S. energy use releases more than 5.5 billion tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Present global CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere are 130% of pre-industrial levels (Figure 1). The global surface temperature last century is warmer than any other century in the past millennium. The global average temperature has increased by about 1 o F over the last century and is projected to rise another 2-6.5 o F by year 2100 (Figure 2). The last two decades have been the warmest last century. Average global sea level has risen about 4 to 10 inches in the last hundred years, and is projected to rise another 6-38 inches by year 2100. Mid- and low- latitude mountain glaciers have retreated world-wide last century. As greenhouse gases continue to accumulate in the atmosphere, it is expected that an increase in rainfall amount and consequent increase in river flooding will occur. Recent floods in the Gulf Coast areas (1993, 1997) are examples of such events, and perhaps indicate the high sensitivity of flood occurrence to changing climate. Because of its unique location adjacent to the Gulf of Mexico, the Gulf Coast region of the United States is particularly vulnerable to various environmental alterations resulting from climate change.

Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi,

Late eighteenth century Old Maid eruption and lahars at Mount Hood, Oregon (USA) dated with tree rings and historical observations

Tree rings of subfossil trees buried by lahars and lahar-derived sediments along the Sandy and Zigzag Rivers record the onset of a late eighteenth century eruption at Mount Hood, Oregon, USA (Figs. 1–2). Crandell (1980) described and named this eruptive activity the ‘Old Maid eruptive period’ and estimated its age at about “200–300 year” using radiocarbon ages of trees killed by lahars. Cameron and Pringle (1986, 1987, 1991) used dendrochronology to constrain the major eruptive events to several decades in the late 1700s. Precise dating of the Old Maid eruption using tree rings, however, has been complicated by the inconsistent wood quality and scarcity of victim subfossil trees. A lack of nearby master chronologies, diverse physiography and microclimates of the region, and the generally low sensitreivity of local tree-ring series to climate variation also create problems with interpretation.

Oregon

Advancing mangrove macroecology

Mangrove forests provide a wide range of ecosystem services to society, yet they are among the most anthropogenically impacted coastal ecosystems in the world. In this chapter, we discuss and provide examples for how macroecology can advance our understanding of mangrove ecosystems. Macroecology is broadly defined as a discipline that uses statistical analyses to investigate large-scale, universal patterns in the distribution, abundance, diversity, and organization of species and ecosystems, including the scaling of ecological processes and structural and functional relationships. Macroecological methods can be used to advance our understanding of how non-linear responses in natural systems can be triggered by human impacts at local, regional, and global scales. Although macroecology has the potential to gain knowledge on universal patterns and processes that govern mangrove ecosystems, the application of macroecological methods to mangroves has historically been limited by constraints in data quality and availability. Here we provide examples that include evaluations of the variation in mangrove forest ecosystem structure and function in relation to macroclimatic drivers (e.g., temperature and rainfall regimes) and climate change. Additional examples include work focused upon the continental distribution of aboveground net primary productivity and carbon storage, which are rapidly advancing research areas. These examples demonstrate the value of a macroecological perspective for the understanding of global- and regional-scale effects of both changing environmental conditions and management actions on ecosystem structure, function, and the supply of goods and services. We also present current trends in mangrove modeling approaches and their potential utility to test hypotheses about mangrove structural and functional properties. Given the gap in relevant experimental work at the regional scale, we also discuss the potential use of mangrove restoration and rehabilitation projects as macroecological studies that advance the critical selection and conservation of ecosystem services when managing mangrove resources. Future work to further incorporate macroecology into mangrove research will require a concerted effort by research groups and institutions to launch research initiatives and synthesize data collected across broad biogeographic regions.

Book chapter

Global genetic diversity status and trends: Towards a suite of Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs) for genetic composition

Biodiversity underlies ecosystem resilience, ecosystem function, sustainable economies, and human well-being. Understanding how biodiversity sustains ecosystems under anthropogenic stressors and global environmental change will require new ways of deriving and applying biodiversity data. A major challenge is that biodiversity data and knowledge are scattered, biased, collected with numerous methods, and stored in inconsistent ways. The Group on Earth Observations Biodiversity Observation Network (GEO BON) has developed the Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs) as fundamental metrics to help aggregate, harmonize, and interpret biodiversity observation data from diverse sources. Mapping and analyzing EBVs can help to evaluate how aspects of biodiversity are distributed geographically and how they change over time. EBVs are also intended to serve as inputs and validation to forecast the status and trends of biodiversity, and to support policy and decision making. Here, we assess the feasibility of implementing Genetic Composition EBVs (Genetic EBVs), which are metrics of within-species genetic variation. We review and bring together numerous areas of the field of genetics and evaluate how each contributes to global and regional genetic biodiversity monitoring with respect to theory, sampling logistics, metadata, archiving, data aggregation, modeling, and technological advances. We propose four Genetic EBVs: ( i ) Genetic Diversity; ( ii ) Genetic Differentiation; ( iii ) Inbreeding; and ( iv ) Effective Population Size ( N e ). We rank Genetic EBVs according to their relevance, sensitivity to change, generalizability, scalability, feasibility and data availability. We outline the workflow for generating genetic data underlying the Genetic EBVs, and review advances and needs in archiving genetic composition data and metadata. We discuss how Genetic EBVs can be operationalized by visualizing EBVs in space and time across species and by forecasting Genetic EBVs beyond current observations using various modeling approaches. Our review then explores challenges of aggregation, standardization, and costs of operationalizing the Genetic EBVs, as well as future directions and opportunities to maximize their uptake globally in research and policy. The collection, annotation, and availability of genetic data has made major advances in the past decade, each of which contributes to the practical and standardized framework for large-scale genetic observation reporting. Rapid advances in DNA sequencing technology present new opportunities, but also challenges for operationalizing Genetic EBVs for biodiversity monitoring regionally and globally. With these advances, genetic composition monitoring is starting to be integrated into global conservation policy, which can help support the foundation of all biodiversity and species' long-term persistence in the face of environmental change. We conclude with a summary of concrete steps for researchers and policy makers for advancing operationalization of Genetic EBVs. The technical and analytical foundations of Genetic EBVs are well developed, and conservation practitioners should anticipate their increasing application as efforts emerge to scale up genetic biodiversity monitoring regionally and globally.

Biological Reviews

A comparative analysis of the Global Land Cover 2000 and MODIS land cover data sets

Accurate and up-to-date global land cover data sets are necessary for various global change research studies including climate change, biodiversity conservation, ecosystem assessment, and environmental modeling. In recent years, substantial advancement has been achieved in generating such data products. Yet, we are far from producing geospatially consistent high-quality data at an operational level. We compared the recently available Global Land Cover 2000 (GLC-2000) and MODerate resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) global land cover data to evaluate the similarities and differences in methodologies and results, and to identify areas of spatial agreement and disagreement. These two global land cover data sets were prepared using different data sources, classification systems, and methodologies, but using the same spatial resolution (i.e., 1 km) satellite data. Our analysis shows a general agreement at the class aggregate level except for savannas/shrublands, and wetlands. The disagreement, however, increases when comparing detailed land cover classes. Similarly, percent agreement between the two data sets was found to be highly variable among biomes. The identified areas of spatial agreement and disagreement will be useful for both data producers and users. Data producers may use the areas of spatial agreement for training area selection and pay special attention to areas of disagreement for further improvement in future land cover characterization and mapping. Users can conveniently use the findings in the areas of agreement, whereas users might need to verify the informaiton in the areas of disagreement with the help of secondary information. Learning from past experience and building on the existing infrastructure (e.g., regional networks), further research is necessary to (1) reduce ambiguity in land cover definitions, (2) increase availability of improved spatial, spectral, radiometric, and geometric resolution satellite data, and (3) develop advanced classification algorithms.

Remote Sensing of Environment

U.S. Geological Survey climate and land use change science strategy—A framework for understanding and responding to global change

Executive Summary The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), a nonregulatory Federal science agency with national scope and responsibilities, is uniquely positioned to serve the Nation’s needs in understanding and responding to global change, including changes in climate, water availability, sea level, land use and land cover, ecosystems, and global biogeochemical cycles. Global change is among the most challenging and formidable issues confronting our Nation and society. Scientists agree that global environmental changes during this century will have far-reaching societal implications (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007; U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2009). In the face of these challenges, the Nation can benefit greatly by using natural science information in decisionmaking. Since the passage of the U.S. Global Change Research Act of 1990, the USGS has made substantial scientific contributions to understanding the interactive living and nonliving components of the Earth system. USGS natural science activities have led to fundamental advances in observing and understanding climate and land-cover change and the effects these changes have on ecosystems, natural-resource availability, and societal sustainability. Most of these major advances were pursued in partnership with other organizations within and outside the Department of the Interior. The inherent value of partnerships with other U.S. Global Change Research Program agencies and natural-resource managers is emphasized in all aspects of the planning and implementation of this Science Strategy for the coming decade. Over the next 10 years, the USGS will make substantial contributions to understanding how Earth systems interact, respond to, and cause global change. The USGS will work with science partners, decisionmakers, and resource managers at local to international levels (including Native American tribes) to improve understanding of past and present change; develop relevant forecasts; and identify those lands, resources, and communities most vulnerable to global change processes. Science will play an essential role in helping communities and land and resource managers understand local to global implications, anticipate effects, prepare for changes, and reduce the risks associated with decisionmaking in a changing environment. USGS partners and stakeholders will benefit from the data, predictive models, and decision-support products and services resulting from the implementation of this strategy. This Science Strategy recognizes core USGS strengths that are applied to key societal problems. It establishes seven goals for USGS global change science and strategic actions that may be implemented in the short term (1–5 years) and the longer term (5–10 years) to improve our understanding of the following areas of inquiry: Rates, causes, and impacts of past global changes; The global carbon cycle; Biogeochemical cycles and their coupled interactions; Land-use and land-cover change rates, causes, and consequences; Droughts, floods, and water availability under changing land-use and climatic conditions; Coastal response to sea-level rise, climatic change, and human development; and Biological responses to global change. In addition to the seven thematic goals, we address the central role of monitoring in accordance with the USGS Science Strategy recommendation that global change research should rely on existing “…decades of observational data and long-term records to interpret consequences of climate variability and change to the Nation’s biological populations, ecosystems, and land and water resources” (U.S. Geological Survey, 2007, p. 19). We also briefly describe specific needs and opportunities for coordinating USGS global change science among USGS Mission Areas and address the need for a comprehensive and sustained communications strategy.

Circular

Scaling-up camera traps: monitoring the planet's biodiversity with networks of remote sensors

Countries committed to implementing the Convention on Biological Diversity's 2011–2020 strategic plan need effective tools to monitor global trends in biodiversity. Remote cameras are a rapidly growing technology that has great potential to transform global monitoring for terrestrial biodiversity and can be an important contributor to the call for measuring Essential Biodiversity Variables. Recent advances in camera technology and methods enable researchers to estimate changes in abundance and distribution for entire communities of animals and to identify global drivers of biodiversity trends. We suggest that interconnected networks of remote cameras will soon monitor biodiversity at a global scale, help answer pressing ecological questions, and guide conservation policy. This global network will require greater collaboration among remote-camera studies and citizen scientists, including standardized metadata, shared protocols, and security measures to protect records about sensitive species. With modest investment in infrastructure, and continued innovation, synthesis, and collaboration, we envision a global network of remote cameras that not only provides real-time biodiversity data but also serves to connect people with nature.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment

Where has turtle ecology been, and where is it going?

Over 9000 articles have been published on turtles and tortoises (excluding sea turtles) since 1950 according to the Web of Science, including over 8000 contained in a personal bibliography that we analyze in this paper. Research had a slow start from 1900 to 1950, with mostly anecdotal additions to our knowledge until the contributions of F. Cagle and A. Carr took turtle research to new levels as the cofathers of turtle ecology in the middle of the last century. Books written in 1939, 1952, and 1972 that compiled existing literature on turtles in the United States and Canada set the stage for growing interest in turtles. The first global compilation of turtle species did not become available until 1961. Publication frequency increased in the 1960s and especially the 1970s as interest in turtles grew, and a wave of turtle biologists emerged from doctoral degree programs. We briefly review the contributions of scientists who published extensively on turtle ecology in those and later decades up to the present. We also review advances in our knowledge of various topics, including the global distribution of turtle research efforts; changes in our perceptions of turtle species diversity over time; turtle community ecology; sex ratios, sex-determination, and climate change; overwintering behavior; sexual size dimorphism and sexual dichromatism; analyses of population genetics; turtles and vocalization; and the emergence of turtle conservation biology efforts. We conclude with a discussion of future opportunities and challenges for working with turtles.

Herpetologica

Translational invasion ecology: Bridging research and practice to address one of the greatest threats to biodiversity

Effective natural resource management and policy is contingent on information generated by research. Conversely, the applicability of research depends on whether it is responsive to the needs and constraints of resource managers and policy makers. However, many scientific fields including invasion ecology suffer from a disconnect between research and practice. Despite strong socio-political imperatives, evidenced by extensive funding dedicated to addressing invasive species, the pairing of invasion ecology with stakeholder needs to support effective management and policy is lacking. As a potential solution, we propose translational invasion ecology (TIE). As an extension of translational ecology, as a framework to increase collaboration among scientists, practitioners, and policy makers to reduce negative impacts of invasive species. As an extension of translational ecology, TIE is an approach that embodies an intentional and inclusive process in which researchers, stakeholders, and decision makers collaborate to develop and implement ecological research via joint consideration of the ecological, sociological, economic, and/or political contexts in order to improve invasive species management. TIE ideally results in improved outcomes as well as shared benefits between researchers and managers. We delineate the steps of our proposed TIE approach and describe successful examples of ongoing TIE projects from the US and internationally. We suggest practical ways to begin incorporating TIE into research and management practices, including supporting boundary-spanning organizations and activities, expanding networks, sharing translational experiences, and measuring outcomes. We find that there is a need for strengthened boundary spanning, as well as funding and recognition for advancing translational approaches. As climate change and globalization exacerbate invasive species impacts, TIE provides a promising approach to generate actionable ecological research while improving outcomes of invasive species management and policy decisions.

Biological Invasions

Mapping the global land surface using 1 km AVHRR data

The scientific requirements for mapping the global land surface using 1 km advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) data have been set forth by the U.S. Global Change Research Program; the International Geosphere Biosphere Programme (IGBP); The United Nations; the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA); the Committee on Earth Observations Satellites; and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) mission to planet Earth (MTPE) program. Mapping the global land surface using 1 km AVHRR data is an international effort to acquire, archive, process, and distribute 1 km AVHRR data to meet the needs of the international science community. A network of AVHRR receiving stations, along with data recorded by NOAA, has been acquiring daily global land coverage since April 1, 1992. A data set of over 70,000 AVHRR images is archived and distributed by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) EROS Data Center, and the European Space Agency. Under the guidance of the IGBP, processing standards have been developed for calibration, atmospheric correction, geometric registration, and the production of global 10-day maximum normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) composites. The major uses of the composites are for the study of surface vegetation condition, mapping land cover, and deriving biophysical characteristics of terrestrial ecosystems. A time-series of 54 10-day global vegetation index composites for the period of April 1, 1992 through September 1993 has been produced. The production of a time-series of 33 10-day global vegetation index composites using NOAA-14 data for the period of February 1, 1995 through December 31, 1995 is underway. The data products are available from the USGS, in cooperation with NASA's MTPE program and other international organizations.

Space Technology

The future of fungi: Threats and opportunities

The fungal kingdom represents an extraordinary diversity of organisms with profound impacts across animal, plant, and ecosystem health. Fungi simultaneously support life, by forming beneficial symbioses with plants and producing life-saving medicines, and bring death, by causing devastating diseases in humans, plants, and animals. With climate change, increased antimicrobial resistance, global trade, environmental degradation, and novel viruses altering the impact of fungi on health and disease, developing new approaches is now more crucial than ever to combat the threats posed by fungi and to harness their extraordinary potential for applications in human health, food supply, and environmental remediation. To address this aim, the Canadian Institute for Advanced Research (CIFAR) and the Burroughs Wellcome Fund convened a workshop to unite leading experts on fungal biology from academia and industry to strategize innovative solutions to global challenges and fungal threats. This report provides recommendations to accelerate fungal research and highlights the major research advances and ideas discussed at the meeting pertaining to 5 major topics: (1) Connections between fungi and climate change and ways to avert climate catastrophe; (2) Fungal threats to humans and ways to mitigate them; (3) Fungal threats to agriculture and food security and approaches to ensure a robust global food supply; (4) Fungal threats to animals and approaches to avoid species collapse and extinction; and (5) Opportunities presented by the fungal kingdom, including novel medicines and enzymes.

G3 Genes, Genomes, Genetics

Science at the frontier: Multimethod research to evaluate ecosystem change across multiple scales

Changes in the Earth system occur across the full spectrum of spatial and temporal scales, yet our research approaches to understanding and predicting those changes are typically restricted to a pre-defined window of space and time. For this reason, there is substantial power in integrating different approaches, particularly for research associated with the multifaceted nature of ecosystem responses to global change. Within a given research approach – for example, remote sensing, field experimentation, modeling – science promotes the continued advancement of tools and techniques. As technical advancements continue at an unprecedented rate, new opportunities for integrated, multi-approach research emerge, which could more effectively capture the mechanisms and patterns that drive ecosystem structure and function. A capacity to move beyond comparison and into the realm of integration shows promise for promoting significant advances in Earth system science, as evidenced by the Organized Session Science at the Frontier: Using Multimethod Research to Create New Knowledge and Assess Tools Across Spatial and Temporal Scales on December 12, 2017 at the Fall meeting of the American Geophysical Union in New Orleans, Louisiana.

New Phytologist

A synergistic future for AI and ecology

Research in both ecology and AI strives for predictive understanding of complex systems, where nonlinearities arise from multidimensional interactions and feedbacks across multiple scales. After a century of independent, asynchronous advances in computational and ecological research, we foresee a critical need for intentional synergy to meet current societal challenges against the backdrop of global change. These challenges include understanding the unpredictability of systems-level phenomena and resilience dynamics on a rapidly changing planet. Here, we spotlight both the promise and the urgency of a convergence research paradigm between ecology and AI. Ecological systems are a challenge to fully and holistically model, even using the most prominent AI technique today: deep neural networks. Moreover, ecological systems have emergent and resilient behaviors that may inspire new, robust AI architectures and methodologies. We share examples of how challenges in ecological systems modeling would benefit from advances in AI techniques that are themselves inspired by the systems they seek to model. Both fields have inspired each other, albeit indirectly, in an evolution toward this convergence. We emphasize the need for more purposeful synergy to accelerate the understanding of ecological resilience whilst building the resilience currently lacking in modern AI systems, which have been shown to fail at times because of poor generalization in different contexts. Persistent epistemic barriers would benefit from attention in both disciplines. The implications of a successful convergence go beyond advancing ecological disciplines or achieving an artificial general intelligence—they are critical for both persisting and thriving in an uncertain future.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Paleoclimates: Understanding climate change past and present

The field of paleoclimatology relies on physical, chemical, and biological proxies of past climate changes that have been preserved in natural archives such as glacial ice, tree rings, sediments, corals, and speleothems. Paleoclimate archives obtained through field investigations, ocean sediment coring expeditions, ice sheet coring programs, and other projects allow scientists to reconstruct climate change over much of earth's history. When combined with computer model simulations, paleoclimatic reconstructions are used to test hypotheses about the causes of climatic change, such as greenhouse gases, solar variability, earth's orbital variations, and hydrological, oceanic, and tectonic processes. This book is a comprehensive, state-of-the art synthesis of paleoclimate research covering all geological timescales, emphasizing topics that shed light on modern trends in the earth's climate. Thomas M. Cronin discusses recent discoveries about past periods of global warmth, changes in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, abrupt climate and sea-level change, natural temperature variability, and other topics directly relevant to controversies over the causes and impacts of climate change. This text is geared toward advanced undergraduate and graduate students and researchers in geology, geography, biology, glaciology, oceanography, atmospheric sciences, and climate modeling, fields that contribute to paleoclimatology. This volume can also serve as a reference for those requiring a general background on natural climate variability.

Book

Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Overview

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) launched Terra, the Earth Observing System's (EOS) flagship satellite platform on December 18, 1999. The polar-orbiting Terra contains five remote sensing instruments, which enable the scientific study and analyses of global terrestrial processes and manifestations of global change. One of the five instruments is the multispectral Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER), which is built in Japan by a consortium of government, industry, and research groups. It has three spectral bands in the visible near-infrared region (VNIR), six bands in the shortwave infrared region (SWIR), and five bands in the thermal infrared region (TIR), with 15-, 30-, and 90-meter ground resolutions, respectively. This combination of wide spectral coverage and high spatial resolution allows ASTER to discriminate among a wide variety of surface materials. The VNIR subsystem also has a backward-viewing telescope for high-resolution (15-meter) stereoscopic observation in the along-track direction, which facilitates the generation of digital elevation models (DEM).

Fact Sheet

Integrating perspectives to understand lake ice dynamics in a changing world

Ice cover plays a critical role in physical, biogeochemical, and ecological processes in lakes. Despite its importance, winter limnology remains relatively understudied. Here, we provide a primer on the predominant drivers of freshwater lake ice cover and the current methodologies used to study lake ice, including in situ and remote sensing observations, physical based models, and experiments. We highlight opportunities for future research by integrating these four disciplines to address key knowledge gaps in our understanding of lake ice dynamics in changing winters. Advances in technology, data integration, and interdisciplinary collaboration will allow the field to move toward developing global forecasts of lake ice cover for small to large lakes across broad spatial and temporal scales, quantifying ice quality and ice thickness, moving from binary to continuous ice records, and determining how winter ice conditions and quality impact ecosystem processes in lakes over winter. Ultimately, integrating disciplines will improve our ability to understand the impacts of changing winters on lake ice.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences

Applications of mineral surface chemistry to environmental problems

Environmental surface chemistry involves processes that occur at the interface between the regolith, hydrosphere and atmosphere. The more limited scope of the present review addresses natural and anthropogenically-induced inorganic geochemical reactions between solutes in surface and ground waters and soil and aquifer substrates. Important surficial reactions include sorption, ion exchange, dissolution, precipitation and heterogeneous oxidation/reduction processes occurring at the solid/aqueous interface. Recent research advances in this field have addressed, both directly and indirectly, societal issues related to water quality, pollution, biogeochemical cycling, nutrient budgets and chemical weathering related to long term global climate change. This review will include recent advances in the fundamental and theoretical understanding of these surficial processes, breakthroughs in experimental and instrumental surface characterization, and development of methodologies for field applications.

Reviews of Geophysics