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At least 1,783 records · Page 99Linked to original sources
USGS2017

Riverine discharges to Chesapeake Bay: Analysis of long-term (1927–2014) records and implications for future flows in the Chesapeake Bay basin

The Chesapeake Bay (CB) basin is under a total maximum daily load (TMDL) mandate to reduce nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment loads to the bay. Identifying shifts in the hydro-climatic regime may help explain observed trends in water quality. To identify potential shifts, hydrologic data (1927–2014) for 27 watersheds in the CB basin were analyzed to determine the relationships among long-term precipitation and stream discharge trends. The amount, frequency, and intensity of precipitation increased from 1910 to 1996 in the eastern U.S., with the observed increases greater in the northeastern U.S. than the southeastern U.S. The CB watershed spans the north-to-south gradient in precipitation increases, and hydrologic differences have been observed in watersheds north relative to watersheds south of the Pennsylvania—Maryland (PA-MD) border. Time series of monthly mean precipitation data specific to each of 27 watersheds were derived from the Precipitation-elevation Regression on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) dataset, and monthly mean stream-discharge data were obtained from U.S. Geological Survey streamgage records. All annual precipitation trend slopes in the 18 watersheds north of the PA-MD border were greater than or equal to those of the nine south of that border. The magnitude of the trend slopes for 1927–2014 in both precipitation and discharge decreased in a north-to-south pattern. Distributions of the monthly precipitation and discharge datasets were assembled into percentiles for each year for each watershed. Multivariate correlation of precipitation and discharge within percentiles among the groups of northern and southern watersheds indicated only weak associations. Regional-scale average behaviors of trends in the distribution of precipitation and discharge annual percentiles differed between the northern and southern watersheds. In general, the linkage between precipitation and discharge was weak, with the linkage weaker in the northern watersheds compared to those in the south. On the basis of simple linear regression, 26 of the 27 watersheds are projected to have higher annual mean discharge in 2025, the target date for implementation of the TMDL for the CB basin.

Chesapeake Bay Basin↗
USGS2012

Use of flow-normalization to evaluate nutrient concentration and flux changes in Lake Champlain tributaries, 1990-2009

The U.S. Geological Survey evaluated 20 years of total phosphorus (P) and total nitrogen (N) concentration data for 18 Lake Champlain tributaries using a new statistical method based on weighted regressions to estimate daily concentration and flux histories based on discharge, season, and trend as explanatory variables. The use of all the streamflow discharge values for a given date in the record, in a process called "flow-normalization," removed the year-to-year variation due to streamflow and generated a smooth time series from which trends were calculated. This approach to data analysis can be of great value to evaluations of the success of restoration efforts because it filters out the large random fluctuations in the flux that are due to the temporal variability in streamflow. Results for the full 20 years of record showed a mixture of upward and downward trends for concentrations and yields of P and N. When the record was broken into two 10-year periods, for many tributaries, the more recent period showed a reversal in N from upward to downward trends and a similar reversal or reduction in magnitude of upward trends for P. Some measures of P and N concentrations and yields appear to be related to intensity of agricultural activities, point-source loads of P, or population density. Total flow-normalized P flux aggregated from the monitored tributaries showed a decrease of 30 metric tons per year from 1991 to 2009, which is about 15% of the targeted reduction established by the operational management plan for the Lake Champlain Basin.

Vermont;New York↗
USGS2019

Ecosystem change and population declines in gulls: Shifting baseline considerations for assessing ecological integrity of protected areas

In Lake Superior's Pukaskwa National Park (PNP) in northern Ontario, Canada, herring gull ( Larus argentatus ) population size is used as an indicator of ecological integrity. Since the 1970s, gull populations have declined by 70% suggesting deteriorating park conditions. However, most other rated park indicators show stable or positive trends. Here, we focus on reconciling these seemingly disparate trends through a better understanding of factors regulating PNP gull populations. Lake-wide declines in surface-schooling prey fish may be limiting aquatic food resources for PNP gulls. To investigate this, we examined gull population trends in different parts of the park in the context of food availability. Gull diets were assessed using regurgitated pellets, egg stable isotopes (nitrogen, carbon) and fatty acids. Population declines were more severe in southern PNP compared to northern PNP and inter-region differences in bird diets likely contributed to these population trends. Gulls in the south relied to a greater extent on dwindling aquatic food resources, i.e., prey fish, while birds in northern PNP supplemented their diets with anthropogenic foods, i.e., garbage. Recognizing that regional declines in aquatic food availability have occurred across eastern Lake Superior is important for the interpretation of PNP gull population trends. Wide-scale ecological changes affecting PNP suggest that factors limiting PNP's herring gull population are not park-specific but, instead, reflect broader ecosystem-wide changes. Defining an appropriate threshold based on current knowledge of ecological conditions on Lake Superior is critical for using herring gull populations as an indicator of park ecological integrity.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗
USGS2012

Developing spatially explicit footprints of plausible land-use scenarios in the Santa Cruz Watershed, Arizona and Sonora

The SLEUTH urban growth model is applied to a binational dryland watershed to envision and evaluate plausible future scenarios of land use change into the year 2050. Our objective was to create a suite of geospatial footprints portraying potential land use change that can be used to aid binational decision-makers in assessing the impacts relative to sustainability of natural resources and potential socio-ecological consequences of proposed land-use management. Three alternatives are designed to simulate different conditions: (i) a Current Trends Scenario of unmanaged exponential growth, (ii) a Conservation Scenario with managed growth to protect the environment, and (iii) a Megalopolis Scenario in which growth is accentuated around a defined international trade corridor. The model was calibrated with historical data extracted from a time series of satellite images. Model materials, methodology, and results are presented. Our Current Trends Scenario predicts the footprint of urban growth to approximately triple from 2009 to 2050, which is corroborated by local population estimates. The Conservation Scenario results in protecting 46% more of the Evergreen class (more than 150,000 acres) than the Current Trends Scenario and approximately 95,000 acres of Barren Land, Crops, Deciduous Forest (Mesquite Bosque), Grassland/Herbaceous, Urban/Recreational Grasses, and Wetlands classes combined. The Megalopolis Scenario results also depict the preservation of some of these land-use classes compared to the Current Trends Scenario, most notably in the environmentally important headwaters region. Connectivity and areal extent of land cover types that provide wildlife habitat were preserved under the alternative scenarios when compared to Current Trends.

Arizona;Sonora↗
USGS2008

Precipitation rates and atmospheric heat transport during the Cenomanian greenhouse warming in North America: Estimates from a stable isotope mass-balance model

Stable isotope mass-balance modeling results of meteoric ??18O values from the Cenomanian Stage of the Cretaceous Western Interior Basin (KWIB) suggest that precipitation and evaporation fluxes were greater than that of the present and significantly different from simulations of Albian KWIB paleohydrology. Sphaerosiderite meteoric ??18O values have been compiled from the Lower Tuscaloosa Formation of southwestern Mississippi (25??N paleolatitude), The Dakota Formation Rose Creek Pit, Fairbury Nebraska (35??N) and the Dunvegan Formation of eastern British Columbia (55??N paleolatitude). These paleosol siderite ??18O values define a paleolatitudinal gradient ranging from - 4.2??? VPDB at 25??N to - 12.5??? VPDB at 55??N. This trend is significantly steeper and more depleted than a modern theoretical siderite gradient (25??N: - 1.7???; 65??N: - 5.6??? VPDB ), and a Holocene meteoric calcite trend (27??N: - 3.6???; 67??N: - 7.4??? VPDB). The Cenomanian gradient is also comparatively steeper than the Albian trend determined for the KWIB in the mid- to high latitudes. The steep latitudinal trend in meteoric ??18O values may be the result of increased precipitation and evaporation fluxes (amount effects) under a more vigorous greenhouse-world hydrologic cycle. A stable-isotope mass-balance model has been used to generate estimates of precipitation and evaporation fluxes and precipitation rates. Estimates of Cenomanian precipitation rates based upon the mass-balance modeling of the KWIB range from 1400??mm/yr at 25??N paleolatitude to 3600??mm/yr at 45??N paleolatitude. The precipitation-evaporation (P-E) flux values were used to delineate zones of moisture surplus and moisture deficit. Comparisons between Cenomanian P-E and modern theoretical siderite, and Holocene calcite latitudinal trends shows an amplification of low-latitude moisture deficits between 5-25??N paleolatitude and moisture surpluses between 40-60??N paleolatitude. The low-latitude moisture deficits correlate with a mean annual average heat loss of 48??W/m2 at 10??N paleolatitude (present, 8??W/m2 at 15??N). The increased precipitation flux and moisture surplus in the mid-latitudes corresponds to a mean average annual heat gain of 180??W/m2 at 50??N paleolatitude (present, 17??W/m2 at 50??N). The Cenomanian low-latitude moisture deficit is similar to that of the Albian, however the mid-latitude (40-60??N) precipitation flux values and precipitation rates are significantly higher (Albian: 2200??mm/yr at 45??N; Cenomanian: 3600??mm/yr at 45??N). Furthermore, the heat transferred to the atmosphere via latent heat of condensation was approximately 10.6?? that of the present at 50??N. The intensified hydrologic cycle of the mid-Cretaceous greenhouse warming may have played a significant role in the poleward transfer of heat and more equable global conditions. Paleoclimatological reconstructions from multiple time periods during the mid-Cretaceous will aid in a better understanding of the dynamics of the hydrologic cycle and latent heat flux during greenhouse world conditions.

Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology↗
USGS2016

Perspectives on monitoring gradual change across the continuity of Landsat sensors using time-series data

There are many types of changes occurring over the Earth's landscapes that can be detected and monitored using Landsat data. Here we focus on monitoring “within-state,” gradual changes in vegetation in contrast with traditional monitoring of “abrupt” land-cover conversions. Gradual changes result from a variety of processes, such as vegetation growth and succession, damage from insects and disease, responses to shifts in climate, and other factors. Despite the prevalence of gradual changes across the landscape, they are largely ignored by the remote sensing community. Gradual changes are best characterized and monitored using time-series analysis, and with the successful launch of Landsat 8 we now have appreciable data continuity that extends the Landsat legacy across the previous 43 years. In this study, we conducted three related analyses: (1) comparison of spectral values acquired by Landsats 7 and 8, separated by eight days, to ensure compatibility for time-series evaluation; (2) tracking of multitemporal signatures for different change processes across Landsat 5, 7, and 8 sensors using anniversary-date imagery; and (3) tracking the same type of processes using all available acquisitions. In this investigation, we found that data representing natural vegetation from Landsats 5, 7, and 8 were comparable and did not indicate a need for major modification prior to use for long-term monitoring. Analyses using anniversary-date imagery can be very effective for assessing long term patterns and trends occurring across the landscape, and are especially good for providing insights regarding trends related to long-term and continuous trends of growth or decline. We found that use of all available data provided a much more comprehensive level of understanding of the trends occurring, providing information about rate, duration, and intra- and inter-annual variability that could not be readily gleaned from the anniversary date analyses. We observed that using all available clear Landsat 5–8 observations with the new Continuous Change Detection and Classification (CCDC) algorithm was very effective for illuminating vegetation trends. There are a number of potential challenges for assessing gradual changes, including atmospheric impacts, algorithm development and visualization of the changes. One of the biggest challenges for studying gradual change will be the lack of appropriate data for validating results and products.

Remote Sensing of Environment↗
USGS2019

Point sources and agricultural practices control spatial-temporal patterns of orthophosphate in tributaries to Chesapeake Bay

Orthophosphate (PO 4 ) is the most bioavailable form of phosphorus (P). Excess PO 4 may cause harmful algal blooms in aquatic ecosystems. A major restoration effort is underway for Chesapeake Bay (CB) to reduce P, nitrogen, and sediment loading to CB. Although PO 4 cycling and delivery to streams has been characterized in small-scale studies, regional drivers of PO 4 patterns remain poorly understood because most water quality trend assessment focus on total P. Moreover, these trend assessments are usually at an annual timestep. To address this research gap, we analyzed PO 4 patterns over a 9-year period at 53 monitoring stations across the CB watershed to: 1) characterize the role of PO 4 in total P fluxes and trends; 2) describe spatial and temporal patterns of PO 4 concentrations across seasons and streamflow ; and 3) explore factors explaining these patterns. Agricultural watersheds exported the most total P compared with watersheds under different land uses (e.g., urban or forest), with PO 4 comprising up to 50% of those exports. Although PO 4 exports are declining at many sites, some agricultural regions are experiencing increasing trends at a rate sufficient to drive total P trends. Regression modeling results suggest that point source load reductions are likely responsible for decreasing PO 4 concentrations observed at many sites. Watersheds with more Conservation Reserve Program enrollment had lower summer PO 4 concentrations, highlighting the effectiveness of this practice. Manure inputs strongly predicted PO 4 concentrations at high flows across all seasons. Both manure applications and conservation tillage were correlated with changes in PO 4 concentrations at high flow, suggesting these activities could contribute to increasing PO 4 concentrations. This study highlights the effectiveness of point source control for reducing PO 4 exports and underscores the need for management strategies to target sources, practices, and landscape factors determining PO 4 loss from soils where manure inputs remain high.

Delaware, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, Virgin↗
USGS2002

High-resolution aeromagnetic mapping of volcanic terrain, Yellowstone National Park

High-resolution aeromagnetic data acquired over Yellowstone National Park (YNP) show contrasting patterns reflecting differences in rock composition, types and degree of alteration, and crustal structures that mirror the variable geology of the Yellowstone Plateau. The older, Eocene, Absaroka Volcanic Supergroup, a series of mostly altered, andesitic volcanic and volcaniclastic rocks partially exposed in mountains on the eastern margin of YNP, produces high-amplitude, positive magnetic anomalies, strongly contrasting with the less magnetic, younger, latest Cenozoic, Yellowstone Plateau Group, primarily a series of fresh and variably altered rhyolitic rocks covering most of YNP. The Yellowstone caldera is the centerpiece of the Yellowstone Plateau; part of its boundary can be identified on the aeromagnetic map as a series of discontinuous, negative magnetic anomalies that reflect faults or zones along which extensive hydrothermal alteration is localized. The large-volume rhyolitic ignimbrite deposits of the 0.63-Ma Lava Creek Tuff and the 2.1-Ma Huckleberry Ridge Tuff, which are prominent lithologies peripheral to the Yellowstone caldera, produce insignificant magnetic signatures. A zone of moderate amplitude positive anomalies coincides with the mapped extent of several post-caldera rhyolitic lavas. Linear magnetic anomalies reflect the rectilinear fault systems characteristic of resurgent domes in the center of the caldera. Peripheral to the caldera, the high-resolution aeromagnetic map clearly delineates flow unit boundaries of pre- and post-caldera basalt flows, which occur stratigraphically below the post-caldera rhyolitic lavas and are not exposed extensively at the surface. All of the hot spring and geyser basins, such as Norris, Upper and Lower Geyser Basins, West Thumb, and Gibbon, are associated with negative magnetic anomalies, reflecting hydrothermal alteration that has destroyed the magnetic susceptibility of minerals in the volcanic rocks. Within Yellowstone Lake, which is mostly within the Yellowstone caldera, aeromagnetic lows also are associated with known hydrothermal activity in the lake. Many of the magnetic lows extend beyond the areas of alteration and hot springs, suggesting a more extensive currently active or fossil hydrothermal system than is currently mapped. Steep magnetic gradients, suggesting faults or fractures, bound the magnetic lows. This implies that fractures localize the hot springs. Magnetic gradient trends reflect the mapped Basin and Range structural trends of north and northwest, as well as northeasterly trends that parallel the regional trend of the Snake River Plain and the track of the Yellowstone hot spot which follow the Precambrian structural grain. These trends are found both at small scales such as in hydrothermal basins and at more regional fault scales, which suggests that the regional stress field and reactivated older structures may exert some control on localization of hydrothermal activity. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗
USGS2012

Simulating future uncertainty to guide the selection of survey designs for long-term monitoring

A goal of environmental monitoring is to provide sound information on the status and trends of natural resources (Messer et al. 1991, Theobald et al. 2007, Fancy et al. 2009). When monitoring observations are acquired by measuring a subset of the population of interest, probability sampling as part of a well-constructed survey design provides the most reliable and legally defensible approach to achieve this goal (Cochran 1977, Olsen et al. 1999, Schreuder et al. 2004; see Chapters 2, 5, 6, 7). Previous works have described the fundamentals of sample surveys (e.g. Hansen et al. 1953, Kish 1965). Interest in survey designs and monitoring over the past 15 years has led to extensive evaluations and new developments of sample selection methods (Stevens and Olsen 2004), of strategies for allocating sample units in space and time (Urquhart et al. 1993, Overton and Stehman 1996, Urquhart and Kincaid 1999), and of estimation (Lesser and Overton 1994, Overton and Stehman 1995) and variance properties (Larsen et al. 1995, Stevens and Olsen 2003) of survey designs. Carefully planned, “scientific” (Chapter 5) survey designs have become a standard in contemporary monitoring of natural resources. Based on our experience with the long-term monitoring program of the US National Park Service (NPS; Fancy et al. 2009; Chapters 16, 22), operational survey designs tend to be selected using the following procedures. For a monitoring indicator (i.e. variable or response), a minimum detectable trend requirement is specified, based on the minimum level of change that would result in meaningful change (e.g. degradation). A probability of detecting this trend (statistical power) and an acceptable level of uncertainty (Type I error; see Chapter 2) within a specified time frame (e.g. 10 years) are specified to ensure timely detection. Explicit statements of the minimum detectable trend, the time frame for detecting the minimum trend, power, and acceptable probability of Type I error (α) collectively form the quantitative sampling objective.

Book chapter↗
USGS2019

Agricultural chemical concentrations and loads in rivers draining the Central Valley, California: Before, during, and after an extended drought

Drought or near drought conditions persisted in California from 2012 through 2016, followed by a high precipitation year in 2017. Long-term water quality monitoring of two key river stations, the Sacramento River at Freeport and the San Joaquin River near Vernalis, located within the largely agricultural Central Valley, allow for an examination of pesticide concentrations and mass loading. Daily models were constructed using an estimation procedure that links mean daily streamflow with pesticide concentration monitoring and time. There were 13 different pesticides and three degradation products modeled, including herbicides, fungicides, and insecticides. Not all pesticides were detected at each river site. There were eight pesticides modeled for the Sacramento River and fourteen for the San Joaquin River. Collectively, there were 16 models for these two sites that showed decreasing trends, 5 with increasing, and 1 with no trend. Mass loads of the modeled compounds increased in 2017 because of the high river discharge. Most pesticides had measured or modeled concentrations that were below acute and chronic toxicity benchmarks. One exception was the neonicotinoid insecticide imidacloprid, which had an increasing trend in concentration with levels that exceeded chronic toxicity thresholds for invertebrates, especially after 2015. The use of some pesticides decreased during this period of time which partly explains the decreasing concentration trends. However, some pesticides had increased useage but with decreasing river concentration. The preponderance of negative trends in concentration of most pesticides suggested that lack of rainfall during the drought resulted in less transport from treated fields to the streams.

California↗
USGS2005

Nature's style: Naturally trendy

Hydroclimatological time series often exhibit trends. While trend magnitude can be determined with little ambiguity, the corresponding statistical significance, sometimes cited to bolster scientific and political argument, is less certain because significance depends critically on the null hypothesis which in turn reflects subjective notions about what one expects to see. We consider statistical trend tests of hydroclimatological data in the presence of long-term persistence (LTP). Monte Carlo experiments employing FARIMA models indicate that trend tests which fail to consider LTP greatly overstate the statistical significance of observed trends when LTP is present. A new test is presented that avoids this problem. From a practical standpoint, however, it may be preferable to acknowledge that the concept of statistical significance is meaningless when discussing poorly understood systems.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2006

Shrinking ponds in subarctic Alaska based on 1950-2002 remotely sensed images

Over the past 50 years, Alaska has experienced a warming climate with longer growing seasons, increased potential evapotranspiration, and permafrost warming. Research from the Seward Peninsula and Kenai Peninsula has demonstrated a substantial landscape-level trend in the reduction of surface water and number of closed-basin ponds. We investigated whether this drying trend occurred at nine other regions throughout Alaska. One study region was from the Arctic Coastal Plain where depp permafrost occurs continuously across the landscape. The other eight study regions were from the boreal forest regions where discontinuous permafrost occurs. Mean annual precipitation across the study regions ranged from 100 to over 700 min yr-1. We used remotely sensed imagery from the 1950s to 2002 to inventory over 10,000 closed-basin ponds from at least three periods from this time span. We found a reduction in the area and number of shallow, closed-basin ponds for all boreal regions. In contrast, the Arctic Coastal Plain region had negligible change in the area of closed-basin ponds. Since the 1950s, surface water area of closed-basin ponds included in this analysis decreased by 31 to 4 percent, and the total number of closed-basin ponds surveyed within each study region decreased from 54 to 5 percent. There was a significant increasing trend in annual mean temperature and potential evapotranspiration since the 1950s for all study regions. There was no significant trend in annual precipitation during the same period. The regional trend of shrinking ponds may be due to increased drainage as permafrost warms, or increased evapotranspiration during a warmer and extended growing season. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research G: Biogeosciences↗
USGS2009

Coral proxy record of decadal-scale reduction in base flow from Moloka'i, Hawaii

Groundwater is a major resource in Hawaii and is the principal source of water for municipal, agricultural, and industrial use. With a growing population, a long-term downward trend in rainfall, and the need for proper groundwater management, a better understanding of the hydroclimatological system is essential. Proxy records from corals can supplement long-term observational networks, offering an accessible source of hydrologic and climate information. To develop a qualitative proxy for historic groundwater discharge to coastal waters, a suite of rare earth elements and yttrium (REYs) were analyzed from coral cores collected along the south shore of Moloka'i, Hawaii. The coral REY to calcium (Ca) ratios were evaluated against hydrological parameters, yielding the strongest relationship to base flow. Dissolution of REYs from labradorite and olivine in the basaltic rock aquifers is likely the primary source of coastal ocean REYs. There was a statistically significant downward trend (−40%) in subannually resolved REY/Ca ratios over the last century. This is consistent with long-term records of stream discharge from Moloka'i, which imply a downward trend in base flow since 1913. A decrease in base flow is observed statewide, consistent with the long-term downward trend in annual rainfall over much of the state. With greater demands on freshwater resources, it is appropriate for withdrawal scenarios to consider long-term trends and short-term climate variability. It is possible that coral paleohydrological records can be used to conduct model-data comparisons in groundwater flow models used to simulate changes in groundwater level and coastal discharge.

Hawai'i↗
USGS2010

Low‐productivity Hawaiian volcanism between Kaua‘i and O‘ahu

The longest distance between subaerial shield volcanoes in the Hawaiian Islands is between the islands of Kaua‘i and O‘ahu, where a field of submarine volcanic cones formed astride the axis of the Hawaiian chain during a period of low magma productivity. The submarine volcanoes lie ∼25–30 km west of Ka‘ena Ridge that extends ∼80 km from western O‘ahu. These volcanoes were sampled by three Jason2 dives. The cones are flat topped, <400 m high and 0.4–2 km in diameter at water depths between ∼2700 and 4300 m, and consist predominantly of pillowed flows. Ar‐Ar and K‐Ar ages of 11 tholeiitic lavas are between 4.9 and 3.6 Ma. These ages overlap with shield volcanism on Kaua‘i (5.1–4.0 Ma) and Wai‘anae shield basalts (3.9–3.1 Ma) on O‘ahu. Young alkalic lavas (circa 0.37 Ma) sampled southwest of Ka‘ena Ridge are a form of offshore secondary volcanism. Half of the volcanic cones contain high‐SiO 2 basalts (51.0–53.5 wt % SiO 2 ). The trends of isotopic compositions of West Ka‘ena tholeiitic lavas diverge from the main Ko‘olau‐Kea shield binary mixing trend in isotope diagrams and extend to lower 208 Pb/ 204 Pb and 206 Pb/ 204 Pb than any Hawaiian tholeiitic lava. West Ka‘ena tholeiitic lavas have geochemical and isotopic characteristics similar to volcanoes of the Loa trend. Hence, our results show that the Loa‐type volcanism has persisted for at least 4.9 Myr, beginning prior to the development of the dual, subparallel chain of volcanoes. Several West Ka‘ena samples are similar to higher SiO 2 , Loa trend lavas of Ko‘olau Makapu‘u stage, Lāna‘i, and Kaho‘olawe; these lavas may have been derived from a pyroxenite source in the mantle. The high Ni contents of olivines in West Ka‘ena lavas also indicate contribution from pyroxenite‐derived melting. Average compositions of Hawaiian shield volcanoes show a clear relation between 206 Pb/ 204 Pb and SiO 2 within Loa trend volcanoes, which supports a prominent but variable influence of pyroxenite in the Hawaiian plume source. In addition, both Pb isotopes and volcano volume show a steady increase with time starting from a minimum west of Ka‘ena Ridge. The entrained mafic component in the Hawaiian plume is probably not controlling the increasing magma productivity in the Hawaiian Islands.

Hawaii↗
USGS2021

Substantial declines in salinity observed across the Upper Colorado River Basin during the 20th century, 1929 to 2019

Salinity in the Colorado River Basin causes an estimated $300 to $400 million per year in economic damages in the U.S. To inform and improve salinity‐control efforts, this study quantifies long‐term trends in salinity (dissolved solids) across the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB), including time periods prior to the construction of large dams and preceding the implementation of salinity‐control projects. Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season was used with datasets of dissolved‐solids and specific‐conductance measurements, collected as early as 1929, to evaluate long‐term trends in dissolved‐solids loads and concentrations in streams from 1929 to 2019 ( n =14). Results indicate that large, widespread, and sustained downward trends in dissolved‐solids concentrations and loads occurred over the last 50 to 90 years. For 12 of the 14 stream sites with significant downward change, median declines of ‐38% (range of ‐14 to ‐57%) and ‐40% (range of ‐9 to ‐65%) were observed for flow‐normalized concentration and load, respectively. Steepest rates of decline occurred from 1980 to 2000, coincident with the initiation of salinity‐control efforts in the 1980s. However, there was a consistent slowing or reversing of downward trends after 2000 even though salinity‐control efforts continued. Significant decreases in salinity occurred as early as the 1940s at some streams, indicating that, in addition to salinity‐control projects, changes in land cover, land use, and/or climate substantially affect salinity transport in the UCRB. Observed dissolved‐solids trends are likely the result of changes to watershed‐related processes, not due to changes in the streamflow regime.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗
USGS2022

A physical interpretation of asymmetric growth and decay of the geomagnetic dipole moment

Observations of relative paleointensity reveal several forms of asymmetry in the time dependence of the virtual axial dipole moment (VADM). Slow decline of the VADM into a reversal is often followed by a more rapid rise back to a quasi-steady state. Asymmetry is also observed in trends of VADM during times of stable polarity. Trends of increasing VADM over time intervals of a few 10s of kyr are more intense and less frequent than decreasing trends. We examine the origin of this behavior using stochastic models. The usual (Langevin) model can account for asymmetries during reversals, but it cannot reproduce the observed asymmetry in trends during stable polarity. Better agreement is achieved with a different class of stochastic models in which the dipole is generated by a series of impulsive events in time. The timing of each event occurs randomly as a Poisson process and the amplitude is also randomly distributed. Predicted trends replicate the observed asymmetry when the generation events are large and the recurrence time is long (typically longer than 3 kyr). Large and infrequent generation events argue against dipole generation by small-scale turbulent flow. Instead, the observations favor a mechanism that relies on expulsion of poloidal magnetic field from the core.

Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems↗
USGS2024

Climate-driven increases in stream metal concentrations in mineralized watersheds throughout the Colorado Rocky Mountains, USA

Increasing stream metal concentrations apparently caused by climate warming have been reported for a small number of mountain watersheds containing hydrothermally altered bedrock with abundant sulfide minerals (mineralized watersheds). Such increases are concerning and could negatively impact downstream ecosystem health, water resources, and mine-site remediation efforts. However, the pervasiveness and typical magnitude of these trends remain uncertain. We aggregated available streamwater chemistry data collected from late summer and fall over the past 40 years for 22 mineralized watersheds throughout the Colorado Rocky Mountains. Temporal trend analysis performed using the Regional Kendall Test indicates significant regional upward trends of ∼2% of the site median per year for sulfate, zinc, and copper concentrations in the 17 streams affected by acid rock drainage (ARD; median pH ≤ 5.5), equivalent to concentrations roughly doubling over the past 30 years. An examination of potential load trends utilizing streamflow data from eight “index gages” located near the sample sites provides strong support for regionally increasing sulfate and metal loads in ARD-affected streams, particularly at higher elevations. Declining streamflows are likely contributing to regionally increasing concentrations, but increasing loads appear to be on average an equal or greater contributor. Comparison of selected site characteristics with site concentration trend magnitudes shows the highest correlation for mean annual air temperature and mean elevation (R 2 of 0.42 and 0.35, respectively, with all others being ≤0.14). Future research on climate-driven controlling mechanisms should therefore focus on processes such as melting of frozen ground directly linked to site mean temperature and elevation.

Colorado↗
USGS1996

Patterns of late Cenozoic volcanic and tectonic activity in the West Antarctic rift system revealed by aeromagnetic surveys

Aeromagnetic surveys, spaced ≤5 km, over widely separated areas of the largely ice- and sea-covered West Antarctic rift system, reveal similar patterns of 100- to 1700-nT, shallow-source magnetic anomalies interpreted as evidence of extensive late Cenozoic volcanism. We use the aeromagnetic data to extend the volcanic rift interpretation over West Antarctica starting with anomalies over (1) exposures of highly magnetic, late Cenozoic volcanic rocks several kilometers thick in the McMurdo-Ross Island area and elsewhere; continuing through (2) volcanoes and subvolcanic intrusions directly beneath the Ross Sea continental shelf defined by marine magnetic and seismic reflection data and aeromagnetic data and (3) volcanic structures interpreted beneath the Ross Ice Shelf partly controlled by seismic reflection determinations of seafloor depth to (4) an area of similar magnetic pattern over the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (400 km from the nearest exposed volcanic rock), where interpretations of late Cenozoic volcanic rocks at the base of the ice are controlled in part by radar ice sounding. North trending magnetic rift fabric in the Ross Sea-Ross Ice Shelf and Corridor Aerogeophysics of the Southeast Ross Transect Zone (CASERTZ) areas, revealed by the aeromagnetic surveys, is probably a reactivation of older rift trends (late Mesozoic?) and is superimposed on still older crosscutting structural trends revealed by magnetic terrace maps calculated from horizontal gradient of pseudogravity. Long-wavelength (∼ 100-km wide) magnetic terraces from sources within the subvolcanic basement cross the detailed survey areas. One of these extends across the Ross Sea survey from the front of the Transantarctic Mountains with an east-southeast trend crossing the north trending rift fabric. The Ross Sea-Ross Ice Shelf survey area is characterized by highly magnetic northern and southern zones which are separated by magnetically defined faults from a more moderately magnetic central zone. Aeromagnetic data in the south delineate the Ross fault of unknown age. The extension of the southern Central Basin south of the Ross fault is associated with an 825-nT magnetic anomaly over the Ross Ice Shelf requiring inferred late Cenozoic volcanic rock essentially at the seafloor at its south end, as shown by magnetic models. Models show that the thickness of magnetic volcanic rocks beneath Hut Point Peninsula at McMurdo Station is probably <2 km. The detailed surveys, combined with data from > 100,000 km of widely spaced aeromagnetic profiles, led to the interpretation of the mostly subglacial West Antarctic flood basalts(?) or their subglacially erupted and intruded equivalent. The volume of the exposed volcanos is small in contrast to the much greater volume (> 10 6 km³) of late Cenozoic magmatic rock remaining at volcanic centers beneath the continental shelf, Ross Ice Shelf and West Antarctic Ice Sheet. We suggest as an alternative or supplemental explanation to the previously proposed mantle plume hypothesis for the late Cenozoic volcanism significantly greater lower lithosphere (mantle) stretching resulting in greater decompression melting than the limited Cenozoic crustal extension allows. However, this implies a space problem that is not obviously resolved, because the Antarctic Plate is essentially surrounded by spreading centers.

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