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USGS2013

Relation of watershed setting and stream nutrient yields at selected sites in central and eastern North Carolina, 1997-2008

Data collected between 1997 and 2008 at 48 stream sites were used to characterize relations between watershed settings and stream nutrient yields throughout central and eastern North Carolina. The focus of the investigation was to identify environmental variables in watersheds that influence nutrient export for supporting the development and prioritization of management strategies for restoring nutrient-impaired streams. Nutrient concentration data and streamflow data compiled for the 1997 to 2008 study period were used to compute stream yields of nitrate, total nitrogen (N), and total phosphorus (P) for each study site. Compiled environmental data (including variables for land cover, hydrologic soil groups, base-flow index, streams, wastewater treatment facilities, and concentrated animal feeding operations) were used to characterize the watershed settings for the study sites. Data for the environmental variables were analyzed in combination with the stream nutrient yields to explore relations based on watershed characteristics and to evaluate whether particular variables were useful indicators of watersheds having relatively higher or lower potential for exporting nutrients. Data evaluations included an examination of median annual nutrient yields based on a watershed land-use classification scheme developed as part of the study. An initial examination of the data indicated that the highest median annual nutrient yields occurred at both agricultural and urban sites, especially for urban sites having large percentages of point-source flow contributions to the streams. The results of statistical testing identified significant differences in annual nutrient yields when sites were analyzed on the basis of watershed land-use category. When statistical differences in median annual yields were noted, the results for nitrate, total N, and total P were similar in that highly urbanized watersheds (greater than 30 percent developed land use) and (or) watersheds with greater than 10 percent point-source flow contributions to streamflow had higher yields relative to undeveloped watersheds (having less than 10 and 15 percent developed and agricultural land uses, respectively) and watersheds with relatively low agricultural land use (between 15 and 30 percent). The statistical tests further indicated that the median annual yields for total P were statistically higher for watersheds with high agricultural land use (greater than 30 percent) compared to the undeveloped watersheds and watersheds with low agricultural land use. The total P yields also were higher for watersheds with low urban land use (between 10 and 30 percent developed land) compared to the undeveloped watersheds. The study data indicate that grouping and examining stream nutrient yields based on the land-use classifications used in this report can be useful for characterizing relations between watershed settings and nutrient yields in streams located throughout central and eastern North Carolina. Compiled study data also were analyzed with four regression tree models as a means of determining which watershed environmental variables or combination of variables result in basins that are likely to have high or low nutrient yields. The regression tree analyses indicated that some of the environmental variables examined in this study were useful for predicting yields of nitrate, total N, and total P. When the median annual nutrient yields for all 48 sites were evaluated as a group (Model 1), annual point-source flow yields had the greatest influence on nitrate and total N yields observed in streams, and annual streamflow yields had the greatest influence on yields of total P. The Model 1 results indicated that watersheds with higher annual point-source flow yields had higher annual yields of nitrate and total N, and watersheds with higher annual streamflow yields had higher annual yields of total P. When sites with high point-source flows (greater than 10 percent of total streamflow) were excluded from the regression tree analyses (Models 2–4), the percentage of forested land in the watersheds was identified as the primary environmental variable influencing stream yields for both total N and total P. Models 2, 3 and 4 did not identify any watershed environmental variables that could adequately explain the observed variability in the nitrate yields among the set of sites examined by each of these models. The results for Models 2, 3, and 4 indicated that watersheds with higher percentages of forested land had lower annual total N and total P yields compared to watersheds with lower percentages of forested land, which had higher median annual total N and total P yields. Additional environmental variables determined to further influence the stream nutrient yields included median annual percentage of point-source flow contributions to the streams, variables of land cover (percentage of forested land, agricultural land, and (or) forested land plus wetlands) in the watershed and (or) in the stream buffer, and drainage area. The regression tree models can serve as a tool for relating differences in select watershed attributes to differences in stream yields of nitrate, total N, and total P, which can provide beneficial information for improving nutrient management in streams throughout North Carolina and for reducing nutrient loads to coastal waters.

North Carolina↗

USGS2021

Homeowners’ willingness to adopt environmentally beneficial landscape practices in an urbanizing watershed

Streams in urbanizing watersheds often experience low flows in summer due to increased water use for residential landscaping and decreased base flow as impervious land cover limits aquifer recharge. Environmentally beneficial landscape practices that save water and infiltrate runoff have the potential to provide multiple ecological benefits including reducing stress on urban streams, but can face opposition by local homeowners. Thus, this study explored attitudes toward landscape water conservation including the barriers and motivations that exist to adoption of water conserving landscape practices by residents in the Ipswich River watershed north of Boston, Massachusetts that experiences seasonal water shortages. The study used a mail-out and on-line survey with images of different water conserving landscape practices (including rain gardens and native plantings) and questions about homeowners’ watering practices, likelihood of adopting these landscape practices, and attitudes towards environmental issues in the region, including existing water policies to restrict use. The results showed that residents (n=265) were aware of existing water shortages and supportive of water conservation policies. Their willingness to adopt water conserving landscape practices was influenced by aesthetic preference with more support for practices that appeared neat rather than those that appeared unkempt. Barriers to residential adoption of these landscape practices included concern about disease-carrying pests and the perceived cost of landscape change. Knowledge about the environment, as operationalized by membership in a local watershed association, as well as educational attainment and income were significant variables in predicting aesthetic preferences and willingness to adopt landscape practices. Promoting widespread adoption of water conserving landscape practices will require local community support and educational initiatives about the multiple-benefits of these practices, including potential long-term cost savings for homeowners. Residential landscape design and management, however, is only part of overarching policy changes that must be implemented to address water conservation in urbanizing watersheds.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2018

Incorporating productivity as a measure of fitness into models of breeding area quality of Arctic peregrine falcons

Using empirical location data from individuals to model habitat quality and species distributions is valuable towards understanding habitat use of wildlife, especially for conservation and management planning. Incorporating measures of reproductive success or survival into these models helps address the role of vital rates (a surrogate of fitness) in affecting a species’ distribution. We used 24-year datasets of Arctic peregrine falcon ( Falco peregrinus tundrius ) nest-site locations and productivity from the Colville River Special Area, Alaska, USA to model suitability of breeding habitat and the relative quality of used and potential nest sites. We used zero-inflated negative binomial regression models and covariates describing nest-site productivity, area of surrounding prey habitat, geology, topography, and land-cover type to model and predict intensity of Arctic peregrine falcon nest-site use along the Colville River, and developed a predictive map of intensity of nest-site use. Regions of higher predicted intensity of use were characterized by steeper slopes, greater area of prey habitat, and higher average productivity, which are likely attributed to minimizing predation risk, gaining advantages for hunting, having sufficient prey resources, site quality, and overall fitness. Including productivity in intensity of nest-site use models improved the models, supporting our supposition that adding a fitness parameter enhanced the predictive capability of the species distribution model. Areas predicted to have higher intensity of use by our model can be used to focus efforts of continued protection of areas with frequently occupied and productive nest sites, and conversely, identify areas where protection of nest sites is likely to have few conservation benefits.

Alaska↗

USGS2003

User's Guide for the Agricultural Non-Point Source (AGNPS) Pollution Model Data Generator

BACKGROUND Throughout this user guide, we refer to datasets that we used in conjunction with developing of this software for supporting cartographic research and producing the datasets to conduct research. However, this software can be used with these datasets or with more 'generic' versions of data of the appropriate type. For example, throughout the guide, we refer to national land cover data (NLCD) and digital elevation model (DEM) data from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) at a 30-m resolution, but any digital terrain model or land cover data at any appropriate resolution will produce results. Another key point to keep in mind is to use a consistent data resolution for all the datasets per model run. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) developed the Agricultural Nonpoint Source (AGNPS) pollution model of watershed hydrology in response to the complex problem of managing nonpoint sources of pollution. AGNPS simulates the behavior of runoff, sediment, and nutrient transport from watersheds that have agriculture as their prime use. The model operates on a cell basis and is a distributed parameter, event-based model. The model requires 22 input parameters. Output parameters are grouped primarily by hydrology, sediment, and chemical output (Young and others, 1995.) Elevation, land cover, and soil are the base data from which to extract the 22 input parameters required by the AGNPS. For automatic parameter extraction, follow the general process described in this guide of extraction from the geospatial data through the AGNPS Data Generator to generate input parameters required by the pollution model (Finn and others, 2002.)

Open-File Report↗

USGS2020

Isolating anthropogenic wetland loss by concurrently tracking inundation and land cover disturbance across the Mid-Atlantic Region, U.S.

Global trends in wetland degradation and loss have created an urgency to monitor wetland extent, as well as track the distribution and causes of wetland loss. Satellite imagery can be used to monitor wetlands over time, but few efforts have attempted to distinguish anthropogenic wetland loss from climate-driven variability in wetland extent. We present an approach to concurrently track land cover disturbance and inundation extent across the Mid-Atlantic region, United States, using the Landsat archive in Google Earth Engine. Disturbance was identified as a change in greenness, using a harmonic linear regression approach, or as a change in growing season brightness. Inundation extent was mapped using a modified version of the U.S. Geological Survey’s Dynamic Surface Water Extent (DSWE) algorithm. Annual (2015–2018) disturbance averaged 0.32% (1095 km 2 year -1 ) of the study area per year and was most common in forested areas. While inundation extent showed substantial interannual variability, the co-occurrence of disturbance and declines in inundation extent represented a minority of both change types, totaling 109 km 2 over the four-year period, and 186 km 2 , using the National Wetland Inventory dataset in place of the Landsat-derived inundation extent. When the annual products were evaluated with permitted wetland and stream fill points, 95% of the fill points were detected, with most found by the disturbance product (89%) and fewer found by the inundation decline product (25%). The results suggest that mapping inundation alone is unlikely to be adequate to find and track anthropogenic wetland loss. Alternatively, remotely tracking both disturbance and inundation can potentially focus efforts to protect, manage, and restore wetlands.

Delaware, MarylandPennsylvania, Virginia, West Vir↗

USGS2003

Simulation of ground-water flow and rainfall runoff with emphasis on the effects of land cover, Whittlesey Creek, Bayfield County, Wisconsin, 1999-2001

The effects of land cover on flooding and base-flow characteristics of Whittlesey Creek, Bayfield County, Wis., were examined in a study that involved ground-water-flow and rainfall-runoff modeling. Field data were collected during 1999-2001 for synoptic base flow, streambed head and temperature, precipitation, continuous streamflow and stream stage, and other physical characteristics. Well logs provided data for potentiometric-surface altitudes and stratigraphic descriptions. Geologic, soil, hydrography, altitude, and historical land-cover data were compiled into a geographic information system and used in two ground-water-flow models (GFLOW and MODFLOW) and a rainfall-runoff model (SWAT). A deep ground-water system intersects Whittlesey Creek near the confluence with the North Fork, producing a steady base flow of 17?18 cubic feet per second. Upstream from the confluence, the creek has little or no base flow; flow is from surface runoff and a small amount of perched ground water. Most of the base flow to Whittlesey Creek originates as recharge through the permeable sands in the center of the Bayfield Peninsula to the northwest of the surface-water-contributing basin. Based on simulations, model-wide changes in recharge caused a proportional change in simulated base flow for Whittlesey Creek. Changing the simulated amount of recharge by 25 to 50 percent in only the ground-water-contributing area results in relatively small changes in base flow to Whittlesey Creek (about 2?11 percent). Simulated changes in land cover within the Whittlesey Creek surface-water-contributing basin would have minimal effects on base flow and average annual runoff, but flood peaks (based on daily mean flows on peak-flow days) could be affected. Based on the simulations, changing the basin land cover to a reforested condition results in a reduction in flood peaks of about 12 to 14 percent for up to a 100-yr flood. Changing the basin land cover to 25 percent urban land or returning basin land cover to the intensive row-crop agriculture of the 1920s results in flood peaks increasing by as much as 18 percent. The SWAT model is limited to a daily time step, which is adequate for describing the surface-water/ground-water interaction and percentage changes. It may not, however, be adequate in describing peak flow because the instantaneous peak flow in Whittlesey Creek during a flood can be more than twice the magnitude of the daily mean flow during that same flood. In addition, the storage and infiltration capacities of wetlands in the basin are not fully understood and need further study.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2014

A mapping and monitoring assessment of the Philippines' mangrove forests from 1990 to 2010

Information on the present condition and spatiotemporal dynamics of mangrove forests is needed for land-change studies and integrated natural resources planning and management. Although several national mangrove estimates for the Philippines exist, information is unavailable at sufficient spatial and thematic detail for change analysis. Historical and contemporary mangrove distribution maps of the Philippines for 1990 and 2010 were prepared at nominal 30-m spatial resolution using Landsat satellite data. Image classification was performed using a supervised decision tree classification approach. Additionally, decadal land-cover change maps from 1990 to 2010 were prepared to depict changes in mangrove area. Total mangrove area decreased 10.5% from 1990 to 2010. Comparison of estimates produced from this study with selected historical mangrove area estimates revealed that total mangrove area decreased by approximately half (51.8%) from 1918 to 2010. This study provides the most current and reliable data regarding the Philippines mangrove area and spatial distribution and delineates where and when mangrove change has occurred in recent decades. The results from this study are useful for developing conservation strategies, biodiversity loss mitigation efforts, and future monitoring and analysis.

Journal of Coastal Research↗

USGS2014

The carbon cycle and hurricanes in the United States between 1900 and 2011

Hurricanes cause severe impacts on forest ecosystems in the United States. These events can substantially alter the carbon biogeochemical cycle at local to regional scales. We selected all tropical storms and more severe events that made U.S. landfall between 1900 and 2011 and used hurricane best track database, a meteorological model (HURRECON), National Land Cover Database (NLCD), U. S. Department of Agirculture Forest Service biomass dataset, and pre- and post-MODIS data to quantify individual event and annual biomass mortality. Our estimates show an average of 18.2 TgC/yr of live biomass mortality for 1900–2011 in the US with strong spatial and inter-annual variability. Results show Hurricane Camille in 1969 caused the highest aboveground biomass mortality with 59.5 TgC. Similarly 1954 had the highest annual mortality with 68.4 TgC attributed to landfalling hurricanes. The results presented are deemed useful to further investigate historical events, and the methods outlined are potentially beneficial to quantify biomass loss in future events.

Scientific Reports↗

USGS2021

Urbanization impacts on evapotranspiration across various spatio-temporal scales

Urbanization has been shown to locally increase the nighttime temperatures creating urban heat islands, which partly arise due to evapotranspiration (ET) reduction. It is unclear how the direction and magnitude of the change in local ET due to urbanization varies globally across different climatic regimes. This knowledge gap is critical, both for the key role of ET in the energy and water balance accounting for the majority of local precipitation, and for reducing the urban heat island effect. We explore and assess the impacts of urbanization on monthly and mean annual ET across a range of landscapes from local to global spatial scales. Remotely sensed land cover and ET available at 1 km resolution are used to quantify the differences in ET between urban and surrounding non-urban areas across the globe. The observed patterns show that the statistically significant difference between urban and non-urban ET can be estimated to first order as a function of local hydroclimate, with arid regions seeing increased ET, and humid regions showing decreased ET. Cities under cold climates also evaporate more than their non-urban surroundings during the winter, as the urban micro-climate has increased energy availability resulting from human activities. Increased ET in arid cities arises from municipal water withdrawals and increased irrigation during drought conditions. These results can help inform planners to improve the integration of environmental conditions into the design and management of urban landscapes.

Earth's Future↗

USGS2015

Variations in community exposure to lahar hazards from multiple volcanoes in Washington State (USA)

Understanding how communities are vulnerable to lahar hazards provides critical input for effective design and implementation of volcano hazard preparedness and mitigation strategies. Past vulnerability assessments have focused largely on hazards posed by a single volcano, even though communities and officials in many parts of the world must plan for and contend with hazards associated with multiple volcanoes. To better understand community vulnerability in regions with multiple volcanic threats, we characterize and compare variations in community exposure to lahar hazards associated with five active volcanoes in Washington State, USA—Mount Baker, Glacier Peak, Mount Rainier, Mount Adams and Mount St. Helens—each having the potential to generate catastrophic lahars that could strike communities tens of kilometers downstream. We use geospatial datasets that represent various population indicators (e.g., land cover, residents, employees, tourists) along with mapped lahar-hazard boundaries at each volcano to determine the distributions of populations within communities that occupy lahar-prone areas. We estimate that Washington lahar-hazard zones collectively contain 191,555 residents, 108,719 employees, 433 public venues that attract visitors, and 354 dependent-care facilities that house individuals that will need assistance to evacuate. We find that population exposure varies considerably across the State both in type (e.g., residential, tourist, employee) and distribution of people (e.g., urban to rural). We develop composite lahar-exposure indices to identify communities most at-risk and communities throughout the State who share common issues of vulnerability to lahar-hazards. We find that although lahars are a regional hazard that will impact communities in different ways there are commonalities in community exposure across multiple volcanoes. Results will aid emergency managers, local officials, and the public in educating at-risk populations and developing preparedness, mitigation, and recovery plans within and across communities.

Washington↗

USGS2007

Urban-Related Environmental Variables and Their Relation with Patterns in Biological Community Structure in the Fountain Creek Basin, Colorado, 2003-2005

In 2003, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Colorado Springs City Engineering, began a study to evaluate the influence of urbanization on stream ecosystems. To accomplish this task, invertebrate, fish, stream discharge, habitat, water-chemistry, and land-use data were collected from 13 sites in the Fountain Creek basin from 2003 to 2005. The Hydrologic Index Tool was used to calculate hydrologic indices known to be related to urbanization. Response of stream hydrology to urbanization was evident among hydrologic variables that described stormflow. These indices included one measurement of high-flow magnitude, two measurements of high-flow frequency, and one measurement of stream flashiness. Habitat and selected nonstormflow water chemistry were characterized at each site. Land-use data were converted to estimates of impervious surface cover and used as the measure of urbanization annually. Correlation analysis (Spearman?s rho) was used to identify a suite of nonredundant streamflow, habitat, and water-chemistry variables that were strongly associated (rho > 0.6) with impervious surface cover but not strongly related to elevation (rho < 0.60). An exploratory multivariate analysis (BIO-ENV, PRIMER ver 6.1, Plymouth, UK) was used to create subsets of eight urban-related environmental variables that described patterns in biological community structure. The strongest and most parsimonious subset of variables describing patterns in invertebrate community structure included high flood pulse count, lower bank capacity, and nutrients. Several other combinations of environmental variables resulted in competing subsets, but these subsets always included the three variables found in the most parsimonious list. This study found that patterns in invertebrate community structure from 2003 to 2005 in the Fountain Creek basin were associated with a variety of environmental characteristics influenced by urbanization. These patterns were explained by a combination of hydrologic, habitat, and water-chemistry variables. Fish community structure showed weaker links between urban-related environmental variables and biological patterns. A conceptual model was developed that showed the influence of urban-related environmental variables and their relation to fish and invertebrate assemblages. This model should prove helpful in guiding future studies on the impacts of urbanization on aquatic systems. Long-term monitoring efforts may be needed in other drainages along the Front Range of Colorado to link urban-related variables to aquatic communities in transition zone streams.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS1964

Ground-water resources of Waupaca County, Wisconsin

Waupaca County is in east-central Wisconsin. No serious ground-water problems existed in 1960 except in a few localities where crystalline rock is near land surface or is covered by nearly impermeable till. The use of ground water for irrigation has not appreciably affected ground-water levels. The county is covered by Pleistocene till, glaciolacustrine (lake), glaciofluvial (stream), and eolian (wind) deposits. In the northern three-quarters of the county these deposits overlie Precambrian crystalline rocks; in the remainder, they overlie sandstone of Cambrian age and, to a minor extent, dolomite of the Prairie du Chien Group of Ordovician age. The deposits of Pleistocene age, particularly outwash, are the principal sources of ground water except in those areas where the saturated thickness is slight or the permeability low. The sandstone of Cambrian age is an important aquifer in the southeastern part of the county. The crystalline rocks of Precambrian age yield little water except from fractures, joints, and weathered zones, and they are a source of water only in areas where better aquifers are absent. Ground water in Waupaca County occurs under both water-table and artesian conditions. The source of this ground water is precipitation that falls on the county and percolates downward to the zone of saturation. Regional movement of ground water is to the Wolf River. In most of the county the direction of movement is eastward or southeastward, except in the southeastern corner of the county, where the movement is westward. Water-level fluctuations reflect the variations of ground-water storage or artesian pressure in response to variations in recharge and discharge. Declining water levels from 1956 to 1959 reflect a period of below-normal precipitation, and rising water levels in late 1959 and 1960 reflect above-normal precipitation. Average precipitation, runoff, and evapotranspiration in 1959 are estimated to be 1,000, 400, and 600 mgd (million gallons per day) respectively. Pumpage in the county was estimated to be about 4 mgd in 1959, and about half of this amount was used for public supplies. A pumping test of a well in outwash deposits near Waupaca indicated that at that point the coefficient of transmissibility is about 100,000 gpd (gallons per day) per ft, the permeability is about 1,000 gpd per sq ft, the coefficient of storage is about 0.2, and the specific capacity is 41 gpm (gallons per minute) per ft of drawdown. These hydraulic characteristics are probably in the same order of magnitude as the characteristics of outwash deposits in the county in general. The water from wells in Waupaca County, although hard and generally containing iron, is good for most purposes.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2014

Evapotranspiration variability and its association with vegetation dynamics in the Nile Basin, 2002–2011

Evapotranspiration (ET) is a vital component in land-atmosphere interactions. In drylands, over 90% of annual rainfall evaporates. The Nile Basin in Africa is about 42% dryland in a region experiencing rapid population growth and development. The relationship of ET with climate, vegetation and land cover in the basin during 2002–2011 is analyzed using thermal-based Simplified Surface Energy Balance Operational (SSEBop) ET, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)-based MODIS Terrestrial (MOD16) ET, MODIS-derived NDVI as a proxy for vegetation productivity and rainfall from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). Interannual variability and trends are analyzed using established statistical methods. Analysis based on thermal-based ET revealed that >50% of the study area exhibited negative ET anomalies for 7 years (2009, driest), while >60% exhibited positive ET anomalies for 3 years (2007, wettest). NDVI-based monthly ET correlated strongly (r > 0.77) with vegetation than thermal-based ET (0.52 < r < 0.73) at p < 0.001. Climate-zone averaged thermal-based ET anomalies positively correlated (r = 0.6, p < 0.05) with rainfall in 4 of the 9 investigated climate zones. Thermal-based and NDVI-based ET estimates revealed minor discrepancies over rainfed croplands (60 mm/yr higher for thermal-based ET), but a significant divergence over wetlands (440 mm/yr higher for thermal-based ET). Only 5% of the study area exhibited statistically significant trends in ET.

Remote Sensing↗

USGS2012

Methods to characterize environmental settings of stream and groundwater sampling sites for National Water-Quality Assessment

Characterization of natural and anthropogenic features that define the environmental settings of sampling sites for streams and groundwater, including drainage basins and groundwater study areas, is an essential component of water-quality and ecological investigations being conducted as part of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment program. Quantitative characterization of environmental settings, combined with physical, chemical, and biological data collected at sampling sites, contributes to understanding the status of, and influences on, water-quality and ecological conditions. To support studies for the National Water-Quality Assessment program, a geographic information system (GIS) was used to develop a standard set of methods to consistently characterize the sites, drainage basins, and groundwater study areas across the nation. This report describes three methods used for characterization-simple overlay, area-weighted areal interpolation, and land-cover-weighted areal interpolation-and their appropriate applications to geographic analyses that have different objectives and data constraints. In addition, this document records the GIS thematic datasets that are used for the Program's national design and data analyses.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2017

A lake-centric geospatial database to guide research and inform management decisions in an Arctic watershed in northern Alaska experiencing climate and land-use changes

Lakes are dominant and diverse landscape features in the Arctic, but conventional land cover classification schemes typically map them as a single uniform class. Here, we present a detailed lake-centric geospatial database for an Arctic watershed in northern Alaska. We developed a GIS dataset consisting of 4362 lakes that provides information on lake morphometry, hydrologic connectivity, surface area dynamics, surrounding terrestrial ecotypes, and other important conditions describing Arctic lakes. Analyzing the geospatial database relative to fish and bird survey data shows relations to lake depth and hydrologic connectivity, which are being used to guide research and aid in the management of aquatic resources in the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska. Further development of similar geospatial databases is needed to better understand and plan for the impacts of ongoing climate and land-use changes occurring across lake-rich landscapes in the Arctic.

Ambio↗

USGS1996

Communicating scientific findings to the general public

The Human Induced Land Transformation project (HILT), part of the U.S. Geological Survey Global Change Research Program, has generated considerable public interest during the first two phases of the project: the data assembly and visualization phase carried out for the San Francisco Bay area; and the model building and calibration phase. The third phase, now underway for the Washington/Baltimore region, is a large scale test of the model's portability to another urban area. The modeling community has been kept informed of progress and findings of the HILT project through conventional academic outlets such as conference and journal publications as well as through more popular outlets such as newspaper, television, and a World Wide Web site. The program, sample data and documentation of the model will be available for downloading to those with an Internet connection. While recognizing that not all research has the same degree of public appeal as this project, additional effort was invested to establish contacts, publicize, and distribute the historical visualizations and model predictions generated by this work in the media, publishing, and in education. In this paper, we will cover the lessons learned in publicizing HILT, the techniques used and the criteria evolved for successful involvement of the general public in the modeling of land cover transitions.

Conference Paper↗

USGS1999

Potential impacts on Colorado Rocky Mountain weather due to land use changes on the adjacent Great Plains

Evidence from both meteorological stations and vegetational successional studies suggests that summer temperatures are decreasing in the mountain-plain system in northeast Colorado, particularly since the early 1980s. These trends are coincident with large changes in regional land cover. Trends in global, Northern Hemisphere and continental surface temperatures over the same period are insignificant. These observations suggest that changes in the climate of this mountain-plain system may be, in some part, a result of localized forcing mechanisms. In this study the effects of land use change on the northern Colorado plains, where large regions of grasslands have been transformed into both dry and irrigated agricultural lands, on regional weather is examined in an effort to understand this local deviation from larger-scale trends. We find with high-resolution numerical simulations of a 3-day summer period using a regional atmospheric-land surface model that replacing grasslands with irrigated and dry farmland can have impacts on regional weather and therefore climate which are not limited to regions of direct forcing. Higher elevations remote from regions of land use change are affected as well. Specifically, cases with altered landcover had cooler, moister boundary layers, and diminished low-level upslope winds over portions of the plains. At higher elevations, temperatures also were lower as was low-level convergence. Precipitation and cloud cover were substantially affected in mountain regions. We advance the hypothesis that observed land use changes may have already had a role in explaining part of the observed climate record in the northern Colorado mountain-plain system.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres↗

USGS1998

National water-quality assessment of the Lake Erie-Lake St. Clair Basin, Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New York — Environmental and hydrologic setting

The Lake Erie-Lake St. Clair Basin covers approximately 22,300 mi 2 (square miles) in parts of Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New York. Situated in two major physiographic provinces, the Appalachian Plateaus and the Central Lowland, the basin includes varied topographic and geomorphic features that affect the hydrology. As of 1990, the basin was inhabited by approximately 10.4 million people. Lake effect has a large influence on the temperature and precipitation of the basin, especially along the leeward southeast shore of Lake Erie. Mean annual precipitation generally increases from west to east, ranging from 31.8 inches at Detroit, Mich., to 43.8 inches at Erie, Pa. The rocks that underlie the Lake Erie-Lake St. Clair Basin range in age from Cambrian through Pennsylvanian, but only Silurian through Pennsylvanian rocks are part of the shallow ground-water flow system. The position of the basin on the edge of the Michigan and Appalachian Basins is responsible for the large range in geologic time of the exposed rocks. Rock types range from shales, siltstones, and mudstones to coarse-grained sandstones and conglomerates. Carbonate rocks consisting of limestones, dolomites, and calcareous shales also underlie the basin. All the basin is overlain by Pleistocene deposits- till, fine-grained stratified sediments, and coarse-grained stratified sediments-most of Wisconsinan age. A system of buried river valleys filled with various lacustrine, alluvial, and coarse glacial deposits is present in the basin. The soils of the Lake Erie-Lake St. Clair Basin consist of two dominant soil orders: Alfisols and Inceptisols. Four other soil orders in the basin (Mollisols, Histisols, Entisols, and Spodosols) are of minor significance, making up less than 8 percent of the total area. The estimated water use for the Lake Erie-Lake St. Clair Basin for 1990 was 10,649 Mgal/d (million gallons per day). Power generation accounted for about 77 percent of total water withdrawals for the basin, whereas agriculture accounted for the least water-use withdrawals, at an estimated 38 Mgal/d. About 98 percent of the total water used in the basin was drawn from surface water; the remaining 2 percent was from ground water. Agricultural and urban land are the predominant land covers in the basin. Agriculture makes up approximately 74.7 percent of the total basin area; urban land use accounts for 11.2 percent; forested areas constitute 10.5 percent; and water, wetlands, rangeland, and barren land constitute less than 4.0 percent. The eight principal streams in the basin are the Clinton, Huron, and Raisin Rivers in Michigan, the Maumee, Sandusky, Cuyahoga, and Grand Rivers in Ohio, and Cattaraugus Creek in New York. The Maumee River, the largest stream in the basin, drains 6,609 mi 2 and discharges just under 24 percent of the streamflow from the basin into Lake Erie. Combined, the eight principal streams discharge approximately 54 percent of the surface water from the basin to the Lake Erie system per year. Average runoff increases from west to east in the basin. The glacial and recent deposits comprise the unconsolidated aquifers and confining units within the basin. Yields of wells completed in tills range from 0 to 20 gal/min (gallon per minute), but yields generally are near the lower part of this range. Fine-grained stratified deposits can be expected to yield from 0 to 3 gal/ min, and coarse-grained stratified deposits can yield 0.3 to 2,050 gal/min. Pennsylvanian sandstones can yield more than 25 gal/min, but they generally yield 10 to 25 gal/min. Mississippian sandstones in the basin generally yield 2 to 100 gal/min. The Mississippian and Devonian shales are considered to be confining units; in places, they produce small quantities of water from fractures at or near the bedrock surface. Wells completed in the Devonian and Silurian carbonates yield 25 to 500 gal/min, but higher yields have been reported in several zones.

Indiana, Michigan, New York , Ohio, Pennsylvania↗