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Using scenario planning to evaluate the impacts of climate change on wildlife populations and communities in the Florida Everglades

It is uncertain how climate change will impact hydrologic drivers of wildlife population dynamics in freshwater wetlands of the Florida Everglades, or how to accommodate this uncertainty in restoration decisions. Using projections of climate scenarios for the year 2060, we evaluated how several possible futures could affect wildlife populations (wading birds, fish, alligators, native apple snails, amphibians, threatened and invasive species) across the Everglades landscape and inform planning already underway. We used data collected from prior research and monitoring to parameterize our wildlife population models. Hydrologic data were simulated using a spatially explicit, regional-scale model. Our scenario evaluations show that expected changes in temperature, precipitation, and sea level could significantly alter important ecological functions. All of our wildlife indicators were negatively affected by scenarios with less rainfall and more evapotranspiration. Under such scenarios, habitat suitability was substantially reduced for iconic animals such as wading birds and alligators. Conversely, the increased rainfall scenario benefited aquatic prey productivity and apex predators. Cascading impacts on non-native species is speculative, but increasing temperatures could increase the time between cold events that currently limit expansion and abundance of non-native fishes, amphibians, and reptiles with natural ranges in the tropics. This scenario planning framework underscored the benefits of proceeding with Everglades restoration plans that capture and clean more freshwater with the potential to mitigate rainfall loss and postpone impacts of sea level rise.

Florida↗

Biological soil crusts exhibit a dynamic response to seasonal rain and release from grazing with implications for soil stability

In Northern Mexico, long-term grazing has substantially degraded semiarid landscapes. In semiarid systems, ecological and hydrological processes are strongly coupled by patchy plant distribution and biological soil crust (BSC) cover in plant-free interspaces. In this study, we asked: 1) how responsive are BSC cover/composition to a drying/wetting cycle and two-year grazing removal, and 2) what are the implications for soil erosion? We characterized BSC morphotypes and their influence on soil stability under grazed/non-grazed conditions during a dry and wet season. Light- and dark-colored cyanobacteria were dominant at the plant tussock and community level. Cover changes in these two groups differed after a rainy season and in response to grazing removal. Lichens with continuous thalli were more vulnerable to grazing than those with semi-continuous/discontinuous thalli after the dry season. Microsites around tussocks facilitated BSC colonization compared to interspaces. Lichen and cyanobacteria morphotypes differentially enhanced resistance to soil erosion; consequently, surface soil stability depends on the spatial distribution of BSC morphotypes, suggesting soil stability may be as dynamic as changes in the type of BSC cover. Longer-term spatially detailed studies are necessary to elicit spatiotemporal dynamics of BSC communities and their functional role in biotically and abiotically variable environments. ?? 2009 Elsevier Ltd.

Journal of Arid Environments↗

Wyoming Basin Rapid Ecoregional Assessment: Work Plan

The overall goal of the Rapid Ecoregional Assessments (REAs) being conducted for the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) is to provide information that supports regional planning and analysis for the management of ecological resources. The REA provides an assessment of baseline ecological conditions, an evaluation of current risks from drivers of ecosystem change, and a predictive capacity for evaluating future risks. The REA also may be used for identifying priority areas for conservation or restoration and for assessing the cumulative effects of a variety of land uses. There are several components of the REAs. Management Questions, developed by the BLM and partners for the ecoregion, identify the information needed for addressing land-management responsibilities. Conservation Elements represent regionally significant aquatic and terrestrial species and communities that are to be conserved and (or) restored. The REA also will evaluate major drivers of ecosystem change (Change Agents) currently affecting or likely to affect the status of Conservation Elements. We selected 8 major biomes and 19 species or species assemblages to be included as Conservation Elements. We will address the four primary Change Agents—development, fire, invasive species, and climate change—required for the REA. The purpose of the work plan for the Wyoming Basin REA is to document the selection process for, and final list of, Management Questions, Conservation Elements, and Change Agents. The work plan also presents the overall assessment framework that will be used to assess the status of Conservation Elements and answer Management Questions.

Wyoming↗

Sediment budget for watersheds of West Maui, Hawaii

Episodic runoff brings suspended sediment to West Maui’s nearshore waters, turning them from blue to brown. This pollution degrades the ecological, cultural, and recreational value of these iconic nearshore waters. We used mapping, monitoring, and modeling to identify and quantify the watershed sources for fine sediment that pollutes the nearshore each year. These results focus strategies to reduce pollution on the outstanding sources for this sediment. Terrestrial runoff causing coastal plumes now occurs when two or more hours of rain falls at rates greater than 10–20 millimeter (mm) per hour in source watersheds. Analysis of recent and historical rainfall indicates that West Maui communities can expect rainfalls to bring coastal plumes at least 3–5 times per year. Former agricultural fields and some unimproved roads are possible sources for the fine sediment of these plumes. We found, however, that these obvious sources do not produce plumes during small annual storms, because they drain water at rates that far exceed most annual rainfalls and because there is no evidence for runoff from rains that caused recent plumes. Streambanks now eroding into historic fill terraces of sands, silts, and clays are a more plausible source. These terraces are found only downstream of historical agricultural fields and are composed of silt and fine sand. Surveys show that the fill terraces occupy ~40 percent of streambank length, making them extensive. During 2015–2016, these deposits eroded at median rates of 5–24 mm per year. Summed over West Maui’s watersheds, these rates imply sediment loads carried to the coast that can be ten times or more than modeled pre-human values. A sediment budget indicates that bank erosion of fill terraces from a few watersheds likely dominates the current annual fine-sediment load to the nearshore, with Kahana Stream watershed producing the largest annual input of 285 metric tons, the equivalent of 29 dump-truck loads every year. Although past large storms have contributed to sediment loading, annual plume generation is now caused by smaller rainfalls eroding these near-stream terrace deposits, a legacy of historic agriculture. Treatments of former agricultural fields, roads, and reserve forests are consequently not likely to measurably effect sediment pollution from smaller, more frequent storms. Increased runoff from residential and commercial development of West Maui has the potential to exacerbate sediment plumes from such storms.

Hawaii↗

Identifying the ecological and management implications of mangrove migration in the northern Gulf of Mexico

Climate change is transforming ecosystems and affecting ecosystem goods and services. Along the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coasts of the southeastern United States, the frequency and intensity of extreme freeze events greatly influences whether coastal wetlands are dominated by freeze-sensitive woody plants (mangrove forests) or freeze-tolerant grass-like plants (salt marshes). In response to warming winters, mangroves have been expanding and displacing salt marshes at varying degrees of severity in parts of north Florida, Louisiana, and Texas. As winter warming accelerates, mangrove range expansion is expected to increasingly modify wetland ecosystem structure and function. Because there are differences in the ecological and societal benefits that salt marshes and mangroves provide, coastal environmental managers are challenged to anticipate effects of mangrove expansion on critical wetland ecosystem services, including those related to carbon sequestration, wildlife habitat, storm protection, erosion reduction, water purification, fisheries support, and recreation. This project produced information that is relevant to scientists and coastal resource managers working within the transition zone between mangrove forests and salt marshes. The two primary products are: (1) an investigation that leverages data and information from a community-curated data network called the Mangrove Migration Network to refine temperature thresholds for mangrove range expansion in a warming climate; and (2) a review article that examines current understanding of the effects of mangrove range expansion and displacement of salt marshes on wetland ecosystem services, including those related to carbon sequestration, wildlife habitat, storm protection, erosion reduction, water purification, fisheries support, and recreation.

Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas↗

Ecological role and services of tropical mangrove ecosystems: a reassessment

Aim To reassess the capacity of mangroves for ecosystem services in the light of recent data. Location Global mangrove ecosystems. Methods We review four long-standing roles of mangroves: (1) carbon dynamics – export or sink; (2) nursery role; (3) shoreline protection; (4) land-building capacity. The origins of pertinent hypotheses, current understanding and gaps in our knowledge are highlighted with reference to biogeographic, geographic and socio-economic influences. Results The role of mangroves as C sinks needs to be evaluated for a wide range of biogeographic regions and forest conditions. Mangrove C assimilation may be under-estimated because of flawed methodology and scanty data on key components of C dynamics. Peri-urban mangroves may be manipulated to provide local offsets for C emission. The nursery function of mangroves is not ubiquitous but varies with spatio-temporal accessibility. Connectivity and complementarity of mangroves and adjacent habitats enhance their nursery function through trophic relay and ontogenetic migrations. The effectiveness of mangroves for coastal protection depends on factors at landscape/geomorphic to community scales and local/species scales. Shifts in species due to climate change, forest degradation and loss of habitat connectivity may reduce the protective capacity of mangroves. Early views of mangroves as land builders (especially lateral expansion) were questionable. Evidence now indicates that mangroves, once established, directly influence vertical land development by enhancing sedimentation and/or by direct organic contributions to soil volume (peat formation) in some settings. Main conclusions Knowledge of thresholds, spatio-temporal scaling and variability due to geographic, biogeographic and socio-economic settings will improve the management of mangrove ecosystem services. Many drivers respond to global trends in climate change and local changes such as urbanization. While mangroves have traditionally been managed for subsistence, future governance models must involve partnerships between local custodians of mangroves and offsite beneficiaries of the services.

Global Ecology and Biogeography↗

Macroclimatic change expected to transform coastal wetland ecosystems this century

Coastal wetlands, existing at the interface between land and sea, are highly vulnerable to climate change. Macroclimate (for example, temperature and precipitation regimes) greatly influences coastal wetland ecosystem structure and function. However, research on climate change impacts in coastal wetlands has concentrated primarily on sea-level rise and largely ignored macroclimatic drivers, despite their power to transform plant community structure and modify ecosystem goods and services. Here, we model wetland plant community structure based on macroclimate using field data collected across broad temperature and precipitation gradients along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. Our analyses quantify strongly nonlinear temperature thresholds regulating the potential for marsh-to-mangrove conversion. We also identify precipitation thresholds for dominance by various functional groups, including succulent plants and unvegetated mudflats. Macroclimate-driven shifts in foundation plant species abundance will have large effects on certain ecosystem goods and services. Based on current and projected climatic conditions, we project that transformative ecological changes are probable throughout the region this century, even under conservative climate scenarios. Coastal wetland ecosystems are functionally similar worldwide, so changes in this region are indicative of potential future changes in climatically similar regions globally.

Nature Climate Change↗

Biogeochemical processes on tree islands in the greater everglades: Initiating a new paradigm

Scientists’ understanding of the role of tree islands in the Everglades has evolved from a plant community of minor biogeochemical importance to a plant community recognized as the driving force for localized phosphorus accumulation within the landscape. Results from this review suggest that tree transpiration, nutrient infiltration from the soil surface, and groundwater flow create a soil zone of confluence where nutrients and salts accumulate under the head of a tree island during dry periods. Results also suggest accumulated salts and nutrients are flushed downstream by regional water flows during wet periods. That trees modulate their environment to create biogeochemical hot spots and strong nutrient gradients is a significant ecological paradigm shift in the understanding of the biogeochemical processes in the Everglades. In terms of island sustainability, this new paradigm suggests the need for distinct dry-wet cycles as well as a hydrologic regime that supports tree survival. Restoration of historic tree islands needs further investigation but the creation of functional tree islands is promising.

Florida↗

Changes in capture rates and body size among vertebrate species occupying an insular urban habitat reserve

Long‐term ecological monitoring provides valuable and objective scientific information to inform management and decision‐making. In this article, we analyze 22 years of herpetofauna monitoring data from the Point Loma Ecological Conservation Area (PLECA), an insular urban reserve near San Diego, CA. Our analysis showed that counts of individuals for one of the four most common terrestrial vertebrates declined, whereas counts for other common species increased or remained stable. Two species exhibited declines in adult body length, whereas biomass pooled over the five most common species increased over time and was associated with higher wet season precipitation. Although the habitat and vegetation at PLECA have remained protected and intact, we suspect that changes in arthropod communities may be driving changes in the abundance, growth, and development of insectivorous lizards. This study underscores the value of long‐term monitoring for establishing quantitative baselines to assess biological changes that would otherwise go undetected.

California↗

Summer Diet of Juvenile Lake Sturgeon Reintroduced into the Genesee and St. Regis Rivers, New York USA

The restoration of threatened species involves understanding multiple aspects of the life history and ecology of the target species. One important consideration in the restoration of threatened species is feeding ecology. We examined the summer diet of reintroduced juvenile lake sturgeon ( Acipenser fulvescens ) in the Genesee ( n = 119, ages 1 and 2) and the St. Regis rivers ( n = 40, ages 1, 2, 5, 6, and 7) of New York State, USA, in the summer of 2005. The most common taxa consumed were Diptera (88% of prey biomass) in the Genesee River and Ephemeroptera (35% of prey biomass) and Diptera (29%) in the St. Regis River. Diptera: (Chironomidae) was the major prey taxon in both benthic communities. Selectivity analysis showed a positive selection of Diptera by Genesee River lake sturgeon and an avoidance of Diptera by St. Regis River lake sturgeon. The St. Regis River lake sturgeon showed avoidance of Coleoptera, but positive selection of Ephemeroptera, Trichoptera, and Oligochaeta. Results indicate that the reintroduced juvenile lake sturgeon are growing and successfully finding prey in these two rivers and appear to actively select specific prey types.

New York↗

Patterns of acoustical activity of bats prior to and 10 years after WNS on Fort Drum Army Installation, New York

Previous acoustic surveys, netting, and count data have shown that overall bat activity patterns have shifted among most species between pre- and post-white-nose syndrome (WNS) years in much of North America where WNS has occurred. However, the significance of these changes is based on the species-specific susceptibility to WNS. We used acoustically recorded echolocation passes obtained at Fort Drum, New York to describe changes in bat activity pre-WNS (2004–2007) to post-WNS (2008–2018). We examined seasonal and yearly changes in bat activity as they relate to the presence of WNS at hibernacula near (<25 km) Fort Drum. A priori , we expected that overall activity for communal hibernating species would be less in years following WNS, and migratory bats or those hibernating bats that are less affected by WNS would show no response or a positive response, due to niche relaxation/competitive release. Our results indicated both an overall and seasonal decrease in activity for Myotis spp. post-WNS. For WNS-susceptible species, our results reflect the high level of mortality in regional winter hibernacula post-WNS and possibly variable reproductive effort and recruitment thereafter. Although migratory bats did show increases in post-WNS activity throughout the summer, we found little evidence that community displacement was occurring on a nightly level by any species. The continuous spread of WNS across North America has had strong negative effects on bat populations of affected species, and our research identifies how individual species (both impacted and non-impacted) respond to WNS.

New York↗

An introduction and practical guide to use of the Soil-Vegetation Inventory Method (SVIM) data

Long-term vegetation dynamics across public rangelands in the western United States are not well understood because of the lack of large-scale, readily available historic datasets. The Bureau of Land Management’s Soil-Vegetation Inventory Method (SVIM) program was implemented between 1977 and 1983 across 14 western states, but the data have not been easily accessible. We introduce the SVIM vegetation cover dataset in a georeferenced, digital format; summarize how the data were collected; and discuss potential limitations and biases. We demonstrate how SVIM data can be compared with contemporary monitoring datasets to quantify changes in vegetation associated with wildfire and the abundance of exotic invasive species. Specifically, we compare SVIM vegetation cover data with cover data collected by BLM’s Assessment, Inventory, and Monitoring (AIM) program (2011–2016) in a focal area in the northern Great Basin. We address issues associated with analyzing and interpreting data from these distinct programs, including differences in survey methods and potential biases introduced by spatial and temporal variation in sampling. We compared SVIM and AIM survey methods at 44 plots and found that percent cover estimates had high correspondence for all measured functional groups. Comparisons between historic SVIM data and recent AIM data documented significant declines in the occupancy and cover of native shrubs and native perennial forbs , and a significant increase in exotic annual forbs. Wildfire was a driver of change for some functional groups, with greater change occurring in AIM plots that burned between the two time periods compared with those that did not. Our results are consistent with previous studies showing that many native shrub-dominated plant communities in the Great Basin have been replaced by exotic annuals. Our study demonstrates that SVIM data will be an important resource for researchers interested in quantifying vegetation change through time across public rangelands in the western United States.

Rangeland Ecology and Management↗

Macroscale analyses suggest invasive plant impacts depend more on the composition of invading plants than on environmental context

Aim Native biodiversity is threatened by the spread of non-native invasive species. Many studies demonstrate that invasions reduce local biodiversity but we lack an understanding of how impacts vary across environments at the macroscale. Using ~11,500 vegetation surveys from ecosystems across the United States, we quantified how the relationship between non-native plant cover and native plant diversity varied across different compositions of invading plants (measured by non-native plant richness and evenness) and environmental contexts (measured by productivity and human activity). Location Continental United States. Time Period Surveys from 1990s-present. Major Taxa Studied Terrestrial plant communities. Methods We fit mixed effects models to understand how native plant richness, diversity and evenness varied with non-native cover. We tested how this relationship varied when non-native cover interacted with non-native plant richness and evenness, and with productivity and human activity. Results Across the United States, communities with greater cover of non-native plants had lower native plant richness and diversity but higher evenness, suggesting rare native plants can be lost while dominant plants decline in abundance. The relationship between non-native cover and native community diversity varied with non-native plant richness and evenness but was not associated with productivity and human activity. Negative associations were strongest in areas with low non-native richness and evenness, characterizing plant communities that were invaded by a dominant non-native plant. Main Conclusions Non-native plant cover provides a first approximation of invasion impacts on native community diversity, but the magnitude of impact depended on non-native plant richness and evenness. Relationships between non-native cover and native diversity were consistent in strength across continental scale gradients of productivity and human activity. Therefore, at the macroscale, invasive plant impacts on native plant communities likely depend more on the characteristics of the invading plants, that is the presence of a dominant invader, than on the environmental context.

Global Ecology and Biogeography↗

Sexually transmitted bacteria affect female cloacal assemblages in a wild bird

Sexual transmission is an important mode of disease propagation, yet its mechanisms remain largely unknown in wild populations. Birds comprise an important model for studying sexually transmitted microbes because their cloaca provides a potential for both gastrointestinal pathogens and endosymbionts to become incorporated into ejaculates. We experimentally demonstrate in a wild population of kittiwakes ( Rissa tridactyla ) that bacteria are transmitted during copulation and affect the composition and diversity of female bacterial communities. We used an anti-insemination device attached to males in combination with a molecular technique (automated ribosomal intergenic spacer analysis) that describes bacterial communities. After inseminations were experimentally blocked, the cloacal communities of mates became increasingly dissimilar. Moreover, female cloacal diversity decreased and the extinction of mate-shared bacteria increased, indicating that female cloacal assemblages revert to their pre-copulatory state and that the cloaca comprises a resilient microbial ecosystem.

Ecology Letters↗

Hydrogeomorphology explains acidification-driven variation in aquatic biological communities in the Neversink Basin, USA

Describing the distribution of aquatic habitats and the health of biological communities can be costly and time-consuming; therefore, simple, inexpensive methods to scale observations of aquatic biota to watersheds that lack data would be useful. In this study, we explored the potential of a simple “hydrogeomorphic” model to predict the effects of acid deposition on macroinvertebrate, fish, and diatom communities in 28 sub-watersheds of the 176-km 2 Neversink River basin in the Catskill Mountains of New York State. The empirical model was originally developed to predict stream-water acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) using the watershed slope and drainage density. Because ANC is known to be strongly related to aquatic biological communities in the Neversink, we speculated that the model might correlate well with biotic indicators of ANC response. The hydrogeomorphic model was strongly correlated to several measures of macroinvertebrate and fish community richness and density, but less strongly correlated to diatom acid tolerance. The model was also strongly correlated to biological communities in 18 sub-watersheds independent of the model development, with the linear correlation capturing the strongly acidic nature of small upland watersheds (<1 km 2 ). Overall, we demonstrated the applicability of geospatial data sets and a simple hydrogeomorphic model for estimating aquatic biological communities in areas with stream-water acidification, allowing estimates where no direct field observations are available. Similar modeling approaches have the potential to complement or refine expensive and time-consuming measurements of aquatic biota populations and to aid in regional assessments of aquatic health.

New York↗

Amphibian responses to wildfire in the western united states: Emerging patterns from short-term studies

The increased frequency and severity of large wildfires in the western United States is an important ecological and management issue with direct relevance to amphibian conservation. Although the knowledge of fire effects on amphibians in the region is still limited relative to most other vertebrate species, we reviewed the current literature to determine if there are evident patterns that might be informative for conservation or management strategies. Of the seven studies that compared pre- and post-wildfire data on a variety of metrics, ranging from amphibian occupancy to body condition, two reported positive responses and five detected negative responses by at least one species. Another seven studies used a retrospective approach to compare effects of wildfire on populations: two studies reported positive effects, three reported negative effects from wildfire, and two reported no effects. All four studies that included plethodontid salamanders reported negative effects on populations or individuals; these effects were greater in forests where fire had been suppressed and in areas that burned with high severity. Species that breed in streams are also vulnerable to post-wildfire changes in habitat, especially in the Southwest. Wildfire is also important for maintaining suitable habitat for diverse amphibian communities, although those results may not be evident immediately after an area burns. We expect that wildfire will extirpate few healthy amphibian populations, but it is still unclear how populations will respond to wildfire in the context of land management (including pre- and post-fire timber harvest) and fragmentation. Wildfire may also increase the risk of decline or extirpation for small, isolated, or stressed (e.g., from drought or disease) populations. Improved understanding of how these effects vary according to changes in fire frequency and severity are critical to form more effective conservation strategies for amphibians in the western United States.

Fire Ecology↗

Practical pathways for protecting headwater streams in urbanizing areas

Headwater streams are diverse ecosystems and important sources of water and dissolved and particulate resources to the downstream river network. However, across the world, they are rapidly being degraded or lost through human activities, particularly urban development. This degradation and loss have negative consequences for the structure and function of headwater streams, as well as downstream river networks. Despite long-held recognition of the ecological value of headwater streams and the impacts of their widespread loss, there remains a large gap between developing strategies and tangible action. To address this gap, we, a group of cross-disciplinary researchers and practitioners from multiple organizations and locations, developed a framework to guide strategic decision-making and a comprehensive set of structural and nonstructural tools that can be used to protect headwater streams in urbanizing areas where opportunities to protect waterway health are being considered by local waterway practitioners and the community. The framework was tested by applying it to 4 contrasting case studies of urbanization with different physiographic, policy, and legislative settings. Our evaluation showed that the framework provides a useful generic mechanism that can be used by policymakers, planners, and other stakeholders to diagnose the status of headwater stream protection in a variety of urban areas and to support structured stakeholder conversations about what is desirable, practical, and achievable for their context.

Freshwater Science↗

The potential for citizen science to produce reliable and useful information in ecology

We examined features of citizen science that influence data quality, inferential power, and usefulness in ecology. As background context for our examination, we considered topics such as ecological sampling (probability based, purposive, opportunistic), linkage between sampling technique and statistical inference(designbased,modelbased),andscientificparadigms(confirmatory,exploratory).Wedistinguished several types of citizen science investigations, from intensive research with rigorous protocols targeting clearly articulated questions to mass-participation internet-based projects with opportunistic data collection lacking samplingdesign,andexaminedoverarchingobjectives,design,analysis,volunteertraining,andperformance. We identified key features that influence data quality: project objectives, design and analysis, and volunteer training and performance. Projects with good designs, trained volunteers, and professional oversight can meet statistical criteria to produce high-quality data with strong inferential power and therefore are well suited for ecological research objectives. Projects with opportunistic data collection, little or no sampling design, and minimal volunteer training are better suited for general objectives related to public education or data exploration because reliable statistical estimation can be difficult or impossible. In some cases, statistically robust analytical methods, external data, or both may increase the inferential power of certain opportunistically collected data. Ecological management, especially by government agencies, frequently requires data suitable for reliable inference. With standardized protocols, state-of-the-art analytical methods, and well-supervised programs, citizen science can make valuable contributions to conservation by increasing the scope of species monitoring efforts. Data quality can be improved by adhering to basic principles of data collection and analysis, designing studies to provide the data quality required, and including suitable statistical expertise, thereby strengthening the science aspect of citizen science and enhancing acceptance by the scientific community and decision makers.

Conservation Biology↗