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USGS2015

Moisture rivals temperature in limiting photosynthesis by trees establishing beyond their cold-edge range limit under ambient and warmed conditions

Climate change is altering plant species distributions globally, and warming is expected to promote uphill shifts in mountain trees. However, at many cold-edge range limits, such as alpine treelines in the western United States, tree establishment may be colimited by low temperature and low moisture, making recruitment patterns with warming difficult to predict. We measured response functions linking carbon (C) assimilation and temperature- and moisture-related microclimatic factors for limber pine ( Pinus flexilis ) seedlings growing in a heating × watering experiment within and above the alpine treeline. We then extrapolated these response functions using observed microclimate conditions to estimate the net effects of warming and associated soil drying on C assimilation across an entire growing season. Moisture and temperature limitations were each estimated to reduce potential growing season C gain from a theoretical upper limit by 15–30% ( c . 50% combined). Warming above current treeline conditions provided relatively little benefit to modeled net assimilation, whereas assimilation was sensitive to either wetter or drier conditions. Summer precipitation may be at least as important as temperature in constraining C gain by establishing subalpine trees at and above current alpine treelines as seasonally dry subalpine and alpine ecosystems continue to warm.

Colorado↗
USGS2018

Promoting synergy in the innovative use of environmental data—Workshop summary

From December 2 to 4, 2015, NatureServe and the U.S. Geological Survey organized and hosted a biodiversity and ecological informatics workshop at the U.S. Department of the Interior in Washington, D.C. The workshop objective was to identify user-driven future directions and areas of collaboration in advanced applications of environmental data applied to forecasting and decision making for the sustainability of biodiversity and ecosystem services. Substantial effort to recruit attendees from diverse Federal, State, and private sector organizations successfully attracted participants from 20 Federal agencies and 48 different institutions in the academic, nonprofit, State government, and commercial sectors; the total number of attendees ranged from 100 to 144 during the 3-day workshop. The first one-half of the workshop was divided into 7 plenary sessions and 3 sets of lightning talk sessions organized by sector, providing 48 oral and visual plenary presentations that shared diverse perspectives on biodiversity and ecological informatics, including original biospatial analyses from 6 graduate student map contest winners. The second one-half of the workshop focused on 10 breakout sessions with participant-driven themes from the environmental data sphere and concluded with an address by the Director of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. The workshop was structured to encourage interactivity. About 80–90 percent of attendees provided direct feedback using clicker devices for specific questions related to biodiversity and ecological data uses and needs, and 10 breakout session leaders shared the highlights of their group discussions during the final workshop plenary sessions. Participants were encouraged to use the Twitter hashtag #ShareUrData. Over lunch on day 2 there were 20 simultaneous presentations of tools and apps during a special “Tools Café” session. The 10 participant-defined breakout session topics are listed below: Ecosystem services and ecological indicators Inventory and monitoring Biogeographic map of the Nation Pollinators Invasive species Remote sensing Drivers of agricultural change Citizen science Climate Hydrology and watersheds Numerous common themes that emerged from the workshop include the following: The vital importance of completing foundational environmental datasets that are nationally consistent and are essential to multiple sectors, such as the Soil Survey Geographic database high-resolution soils data, a minimum 5-meter resolution digital elevation model, national hydrographic data, high-resolution land cover data, time series high-resolution spatial climate data from historical to future time steps, and a national wetland inventory. Improved, nationally consistent environmental datasets (integrated with targeted observations) will dramatically advance forecasting capacity and support early warning systems (that is, drought, forest disease); however, multiagency coordination should focus on decision support tools that convey appropriate actions and responses to adapt to, and mitigate, potential negative consequences. Digitizing and providing access to the vast stores of underused historical data that can be leveraged for this purpose is of national importance. Modern computational techniques and the ever-increasing flow of environmental data from ground and remote observations can support improved understanding of environmental change. Success of understanding patterns of change for decision making requires establishing baselines from which change can be measured. The value of digitized historical data is greater than ever before. There is a need to recognize the multifaceted potential of citizen science to engage the public in resource stewardship, to create the next generation of science, technology, engineering, math, and environmental leaders, and to have sufficient field personnel to monitor environmental trends, including early detection of alien invasive species, phenological shifts, shifting distribution and abundance of indicator species, and species inventories. The Federal government has an essential role in creating the infrastructure to dramatically improve mobilization of citizen science (and other) data by fostering the following: creation of data standards, creation of nationally consistent framework datasets, vertical integration of observation data, visualization and dissemination of aggregated datasets, and calculation and communication of derived trends. Current and near future trends in the availability of remotely sensed data (rapid expansion of satellite fleets and drones) is revolutionizing access to near-real-time ecological data. Targeted integration with ground-based observations and instrumentation has an extremely valuable role in validating remotely sensed data, filling data gaps, improving data quality, and fully realizing the potential of the near-real-time monitoring of environmental indicator trends. Integrated management of environmental data at the landscape scale is required even as specific actions on the ground are largely local in nature. The workshop highlighted numerous success stories; however, almost every breakout group pointed out the still-too-fragmented nature of the current data landscape. Management and delivery of the necessary data, tools, and analyses to sustain our Nation’s environmental capital must be a collaborative effort between Federal, State, and local governments, academia, nonprofits, and the commercial sector, even though the responsibilities of each sector are different.

Open-File Report↗
USGS1986

Effect of height and orientation (microclimate) on geomorphic degradation rates and processes, late-glacial terrace scarps in central Idaho

Skip Nav Destination RESEARCH ARTICLE | JULY 01, 1986 Effect of height and orientation (microclimate) on geomorphic degradation rates and processes, late-glacial terrace scarps in central Idaho KENNETH L. PIERCE ; STEVEN M. COLMAN Author and Article Information GSA Bulletin (1986) 97 (7): 869–885. https://doi.org/10.1130/0016-7606(1986)97<869:EOHAOM>2.0.CO;2 Article history Standard View 2.0.CO;2" data-doctype="contentPdf" data-article-id="188507" data-mce-href="https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/gsa/gsabulletin/article-pdf/97/7/869/3434736/i0016-7606-97-7-869.pdf"> Open the PDF for in another window Cite Share Icon Share Permissions Abstract Terrace scarps can serve as a nearly ideal natural laboratory for the study of the evolution of slopes. This paper examines the effects of scarp size (height) and orientation (microclimate) by keeping constant variables such as age, lithology, and regional climate. If a scarp degrades as a closed system, and downslope movement is directly proportional to surface gradient , the evolution of the scarp is modeled by the diffusion equation. For a group of scarps of same age and known starting angle, the diffusion-equation model predicts the relation between maximum scarp angle (𝛉) and scarp height ( h ). Late Pleistocene terrace scarps now as steep as 33.25°, as well as measured angles of repose for sand and gravel, require a starting angle as steep as 33.5°. For latest Pleistocene Idaho and Utah scarps, as h increases, 𝛉 is gentler (more degraded) than modeled by the diffusion equation with a constant rate coefficient. The degradation-rate coefficient ( c ) increases tenfold with scarp height; it should not change with scarp height if downslope movement is solely determined by surface gradient (to the first power). Soil wash appears to be responsible for this departure from the diffusion-equation model, for transport rate by soil wash is a function of scarp size (height). South-facing scarps are less vegetated and more degraded than north-facing scarps. For scarps 2 m high, the degradation rate ( c *) on S-facing scarps is 2 times that on N-facing scarps; for 10-m scarps, it is 5 times. The observed dependence of the rate coefficient c * on scarp height can be removed by normalizing c * to values for west-facing scarps of the same height. The residual c * values calculated by this method correlate well with differences in incident solar radiation resulting from the different scarp orientations and maximum gradients. This correlation demonstrates the importance of orientation on slope processes and their rates through the differences in freeze-thaw cycles, soil moisture, and vegetative cover. Scarp morphology may be used to estimate age, if one accounts for the effects of climate and for scarp height, orientation, and lithology. For example, using the dated Bonneville shoreline scarps for calibration and comparing only scarps of equal height, we estimate the Drum Mountains fault scarps to be 9,000 yr old. This age is about twice that produced by previous diffusion-equation calculations that have not accounted for the height as we have here, but it is the same as independent geologic estimates of their age.

Idaho↗
USGS2010

Lake temperature and ice cover regimes in the Alaskan Subarctic and Arctic: Integrated monitoring, remote sensing, and modeling

Lake surface regimes are fundamental attributes of lake ecosystems and their interaction with the land and atmosphere. High latitudes may be particularly sensitive to climate change, however, adequate baselines for these lakes are often lacking. In this study, we couple monitoring, remote sensing, and modeling techniques to generate baseline datasets of lake surface temperature and ice cover in the Alaskan Subarctic and Arctic. No detectable trends were observed during this study period, but a number of interesting patterns were noted among lakes and between regions. The largest Arctic lake was relatively unresponsive to air temperature, while the largest Subarctic lake was very responsive likely because it is fed by glacial runoff. Mean late summer water temperatures were higher than air temperatures with differences ranging from 1.7 to 5.4°C in Subarctic lakes and from 2.4 to 3.2°C in Arctic lakes. The warmest mean summer water temperature in both regions was in 2004, with the exception of Subarctic glacially fed lake that was highest in 2005. Ice-out timing had high coherence within regions and years, typically occurring in late May in Subarctic and in early-July in Arctic lakes. Ice-on timing was more dependent on lake size and depth, often varying among lakes within a region. Such analyses provide an important baseline of lake surface regimes at a time when there is increasing interest in high-latitude water ecosystems and resources during an uncertain climate future.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗
USGS2025

The conundrum of taxonomic uniformitarianism in planktic foraminifera

Planktic foraminiferal species distributions in the modern ocean track environmental features like sea surface temperature (SST). Species shift their distributions as the marine environment changes, providing an analogue for past behaviour. Stationarity of species' ecological tolerances is therefore a first-order assumption of all palaeoenvironmental reconstructions based upon modern analogue methods. In this paper we test the hypothesis that planktic foraminifer species temperature preferences did not change between the Late Pliocene and present, using a dataset which contains faunal abundance data and alkenone palaeotemperature data from the same samples. Our dataset includes 463 samples from 29 localities. Pliocene relative abundances of four taxa ( Globigerina bulloides , Globigerinita glutinata , Neogloboquadrina pachyderma and Neogloboquadrina incompta ) are compared to SST estimates of the same age derived using the alkenone unsaturation ratio ( U K ' 37 ) palaeothermometer. Core-top abundances of the same taxa were compared to pre-industrial SST. Our Pliocene data are generally concordant with previous work. Pliocene SST responses and those of the pre-industrial are similar, supporting the hypothesis that temperature preferences of planktic foraminifera have been relatively stable since the Late Pliocene. This documentation of stationarity of planktic foraminiferal species' temperature tolerances is helpful in identifying situations where environmental variables other than temperature (e.g. salinity or productivity) exhibit a first-order control on faunal diversity. Our results support the notion of taxonomic uniformitarianism and therefore provide additional confidence in using planktic foraminifera to evaluate both regional and global climate change.

Palaeontology↗
USGS2020

Freezing in a warming climate: Marked declines of a subnivean hibernator after a snow drought

Recent snow droughts associated with unusually warm winters are predicted to increase in frequency and affect species dependent upon snowpack for winter survival. Changes in populations of some cold‐adapted species have been attributed to heat stress or indirect effects on habitat from unusually warm summers, but little is known about the importance of winter weather to population dynamics and how responses to snow drought vary among sympatric species. We evaluated changes in abundance of hoary marmots ( Marmota caligata ) over a period that included a year of record‐low snowpack to identify mechanisms associated with weather and snowpack. To consider interspecies comparisons, our analysis used the same a priori model set as a concurrent study that evaluated responses of American pikas ( Ochotona princeps ) to weather and snowpack in the same study area of North Cascades National Park, Washington, USA. We hypothesized that marmot abundance reflected mechanisms related to heat stress, cold stress, cold exposure without an insulating snowpack, snowpack duration, atmospheric moisture, growing‐season precipitation, or select combinations of these mechanisms. Changes in marmot abundances included a 74% decline from 2007 to 2016 and were best explained by an interaction of chronic dryness with exposure to acute cold without snowpack in winter. Physiological stress during hibernation from exposure to cold, dry air appeared to be the most likely mechanism of change in marmot abundance. Alternative mechanisms associated with changes to winter weather, including early emergence from hibernation or altered vegetation dynamics, had less support. A post hoc assessment of vegetative phenology and productivity did not support vegetation dynamics as a primary driver of marmot abundance across years. Although marmot and pika abundances were explained by strikingly similar models over periods of many years, details of the mechanisms involved likely differ between species because pika abundances increased in areas where marmots declined. Such differences may lead to diverging geographic distributions of these species as global change continues.

Washington↗
USGS2013

Climate warming shifts carbon allocation from stemwood to roots in calcium-depleted spruce forests

Increased greening of northern forests, measured by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), has been presented as evidence that a warmer climate has increased both net primary productivity (NPP) and the carbon sink in boreal forests. However, higher production and greener canopies may accompany changes in carbon allocation that favor foliage or fine roots over less decomposable woody biomass. Furthermore, tree core data throughout mid- and northern latitudes have revealed a divergence problem (DP), a weakening in tree ring responses to warming over the past half century that is receiving increasing attention, but remains poorly understood. Often, the same sites exhibit trend inconsistency phenomenon (TIP), namely positive, or no trends in growing season NDVI where negative trends in tree ring indexes are observed. Here we studied growth of two Norway spruce (Picea abies) stands in western Russia that exhibited both the DP and TIP but were subject to soil acidification and calcium depletion of differing timing and severity. Our results link the decline in radial growth starting in 1980 to a shift in carbon allocation from wood to roots driven by a combination of two factors: (a) soil acidification that depleted calcium and impaired root function and (b) earlier onset of the growing season that further taxed the root system. The latter change in phenology appears to act as a trigger at both sites to push trees into nutrient limitation as the demand for Ca increased with the longer growing season, thereby causing the shift in carbon allocation.

Global Biogeochemical Cycles↗
USGS2013

Effects of thinning on drought vulnerability and climate response in north temperate forest ecosystems

Reducing tree densities through silvicultural thinning has been widely advocated as a strategy for enhancing resistance and resilience to drought, yet few empirical evaluations of this approach exist. We examined detailed dendrochronological data from a long-term (>50 yrs) replicated thinning experiment to determine if density reductions conferred greater resistance and/or resilience to droughts, assessed by the magnitude of stand-level growth reductions. Our results suggest that thinning generally enhanced drought resistance and resilience; however, this relationship showed a pronounced reversal over time in stands maintained at lower tree densities. Specifically, lower-density stands exhibited greater resistance and resilience at younger ages (49 years), yet exhibited lower resistance and resilience at older ages (76 years), relative to higher-density stands. We attribute this reversal to significantly greater tree sizes attained within the lower-density stands through stand development, which in turn increased tree-level water demand during the later droughts. Results from response-function analyses indicate that thinning altered growth-climate relationships, such that higher-density stands were more sensitive to growing-season precipitation relative to lower-density stands. These results confirm the potential of density management to moderate drought impacts on growth, and they highlight the importance of accounting for stand structure when predicting climate-change impacts to forest systems.

Minnesota↗
USGS2011

Timing of seasonal migration in mule deer: effects of climate, plant phenology, and life-history characteristics

Phenological events of plants and animals are sensitive to climatic processes. Migration is a life-history event exhibited by most large herbivores living in seasonal environments, and is thought to occur in response to dynamics of forage and weather. Decisions regarding when to migrate, however, may be affected by differences in life-history characteristics of individuals. Long-term and intensive study of a population of mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ) in the Sierra Nevada, California, USA, allowed us to document patterns of migration during 11 years that encompassed a wide array of environmental conditions. We used two new techniques to properly account for interval-censored data and disentangle effects of broad-scale climate, local weather patterns, and plant phenology on seasonal patterns of migration, while incorporating effects of individual life-history characteristics. Timing of autumn migration varied substantially among individual deer, but was associated with the severity of winter weather, and in particular, snow depth and cold temperatures. Migratory responses to winter weather, however, were affected by age, nutritional condition, and summer residency of individual females. Old females and those in good nutritional condition risked encountering severe weather by delaying autumn migration, and were thus risk-prone with respect to the potential loss of foraging opportunities in deep snow compared with young females and those in poor nutritional condition. Females that summered on the west side of the crest of the Sierra Nevada delayed autumn migration relative to east-side females, which supports the influence of the local environment on timing of migration. In contrast, timing of spring migration was unrelated to individual life-history characteristics, was nearly twice as synchronous as autumn migration, differed among years, was related to the southern oscillation index, and was influenced by absolute snow depth and advancing phenology of plants. Plasticity in timing of migration in response to climatic conditions and plant phenology may be an adaptive behavioral strategy, which should reduce the detrimental effects of trophic mismatches between resources and other life-history events of large herbivores. Failure to consider effects of nutrition and other life-history traits may cloud interpretation of phenological patterns of mammals and conceal relationships associated with climate change.

California↗
USGS2009

Advanced Tools for River Science: EAARL and MD_SWMS: Chapter 3

Disruption of flow regimes and sediment supplies, induced by anthropogenic or climatic factors, can produce dramatic alterations in river form, vegetation patterns, and associated habitat conditions. To improve habitat in these fluvial systems, resource managers may choose from a variety of treatments including flow and/or sediment prescriptions, vegetation management, or engineered approaches. Monitoring protocols developed to assess the morphologic response of these treatments require techniques that can measure topographic changes above and below the water surface efficiently, accurately, and in a standardized, cost-effective manner. Similarly, modeling of flow, sediment transport, habitat, and channel evolution requires characterization of river morphology for model input and verification. Recent developments by the U.S. Geological Survey with regard to both remotely sensed methods (the Experimental Advanced Airborne Research LiDAR; EAARL) and computational modeling software (the Multi-Dimensional Surface-Water Modeling System; MD_SWMS) have produced advanced tools for spatially explicit monitoring and modeling in aquatic environments. In this paper, we present a pilot study conducted along the Platte River, Nebraska, that demonstrates the combined use of these river science tools.

Report↗
USGS2021

Trends in groundwater levels in and near the Rosebud Indian Reservation, South Dakota, water years 1956–2017

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Rosebud Sioux Tribe, completed a study to characterize water-level fluctuations in observation wells to examine driving factors that affect water levels in and near the Rosebud Indian Reservation, which comprises all of Todd County. The study investigates concerns regarding potential effects of groundwater withdrawals and climate conditions on groundwater levels within an area that includes Todd County and a surrounding area that extends 10 miles north, east, and west of the county border. Characterization of water-level fluctuations in observation wells and relative driving factors was accomplished by statistical trend analysis. Two statistical methods were used for analysis of temporal trends for climatic and hydrologic data. To determine which trend analysis to use, applicable datasets were tested for statistically significant short-term persistence (STP). In the absence of significant STP, existence of statistical trends was determined using the standard Mann-Kendall test for probability values less than or equal to 0.10 (90-percent confidence level); however, a modified Mann-Kendall test was used for datasets where statistically significant STP was detected. Trend magnitudes were computed using the Sen’s slope estimator. Monthly data from the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) were aggregated to obtain annual and seasonal datasets for total precipitation, minimum air temperature ( T min ), and maximum air temperature ( T max ) for the study area and a surrounding buffer area. Trend tests for total precipitation, T min , and T max were completed for annual and seasonal time series for water years 1956–2017, which is about 2 years before the earliest available water-level measurements. A 2-year offset was arbitrarily selected because scrutiny of water-level and precipitation data indicated that responses of groundwater levels for many of the observation wells lagged major changes in precipitation patterns by about 2 years. Statistically significant upward trends were detected for annual precipitation and annual T min for almost all of the study area and the surrounding buffer area. Statistically significant downward trends in T max were detected for a very small part of the study area; however, the sparse spatial coverage reduces confidence that these are true trends. Spatial distributions of statistically significant trends in seasonal climate data were generally similar to the annual trends, but with substantial differences in the spatial density of the trends. Groundwater trends for 58 observation wells were analyzed for three separate water-level parameters (minimum, median, and maximum) because wells are measured sporadically and data are biased towards more frequent measurements during periods of heaviest irrigation demand. Trends in the time series of annual precipitation (from PRISM) starting 2 years earlier than for the associated water-level trend also were analyzed for the location of each individual observation well. Sen’s slope and Mann-Kendall probability values (p-values) were computed for the three water-level parameters and for the annual precipitation time series. Graphs showing results of trend analyses for each observation well also showed changes over time in the sum of licensed groundwater withdrawals within six specified radii (0.5, 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 miles) of each well as a qualitative indicator of proximal groundwater demand. Of all 58 observation wells considered, 28 wells had significant upward trends for at least one of the three water-level parameters, 11 wells had significant downward trends for at least one water-level parameter, and 19 wells did not have any significant trends. Significant upward trends in annual precipitation were detected for 48 of the 58 wells. Results of trend analyses likely show the effects of groundwater withdrawals on water levels in the Ogallala aquifer in areas of substantial demand. Precipitation trends are significantly upward for 43 of the 48 wells completed in the Ogallala aquifer that were analyzed. Of the 48 Ogallala aquifer wells, 24 had significant upward trends for at least one water-level parameter (17 with all 3); however, 10 wells had statistically significant downward trends for at least one water-level parameter (8 with all 3 parameters). All but one of the wells with significant downward trends are located in the south-central part of the study area where licensed irrigation withdrawals are concentrated.

South Dakota↗
USGS2024

When and where can coastal wetland restoration increase carbon sequestration as a natural climate solution?

Coastal wetlands are hotspots of carbon sequestration, and their conservation and restoration can help to mitigate climate change. However, there remains uncertainty on when and where coastal wetland restoration can most effectively act as a Natural Climate Solution (NCS). Here, we synthesize current understanding to illustrate the requirements for coastal wetland restoration to benefit climate, and discuss potential paths forward that address key uncertainties impeding implementation. To be effective as NCS, coastal wetland restoration projects will accrue climate cooling benefits that would not occur without management action (additionality), will be implementable (feasibility), and will persist over management-relevant timeframes (permanence). Several issues add uncertainty to understanding if these minimum requirements are met. First, coastal wetlands serve as both a landscape source and sink of carbon for other habitats, increasing uncertainty in additionality. Second, coastal wetlands can potentially migrate outside of project footprints as they respond to sea-level rise, increasing uncertainty in permanence. To address these first two issues, a system-wide approach may be necessary, rather than basing cooling benefits only on changes that occur within project boundaries. Third, the need for NCS to function over management-relevant decadal timescales means methane responses may be necessary to include in coastal wetland restoration planning and monitoring. Finally, there is uncertainty on how much data is required to justify restoration action. We summarize the minimum data required to make a decision on whether there is a net cooling benefit from a management action, noting that these data are more readily available than the data required to quantify the magnitude of cooling benefits for carbon crediting purposes. By reducing uncertainty, coastal wetland restoration can be implemented at the scale required to significantly contribute to addressing the current climate crisis.

Coastal Futures↗
USGS2015

Stable-isotope and solute-chemistry approaches to flow characterization in a forested tropical watershed, Luquillo Mountains, Puerto Rico

The prospect of changing climate has led to uncertainty about the resilience of forested mountain watersheds in the tropics. In watersheds where frequent, high rainfall provides ample runoff, we often lack understanding of how the system will respond under conditions of decreased rainfall or drought. Factors that govern water supply, such as recharge rates and groundwater storage capacity, may be poorly quantified. This paper describes 8-year data sets of water stable isotope composition ( δ 2 H and δ 18 O) of precipitation (4 sites) and a stream (1 site), and four contemporaneous stream sample sets of solute chemistry and isotopes, used to investigate watershed response to precipitation inputs in the 1780-ha Río Mameyes basin in the Luquillo Mountains of northeastern Puerto Rico. Extreme δ 2 H and δ 18 O values from low-pressure storm systems and the deuterium excess ( d -excess) were useful tracers of watershed response in this tropical system. A hydrograph separation experiment performed in June 2011 yielded different but complementary information from stable isotope and solute chemistry data. The hydrograph separation results indicated that 36% of the storm rain that reached the soil surface left the watershed in a very short time as runoff. Weathering-derived solutes indicated near-stream groundwater was displaced into the stream at the beginning of the event, followed by significant dilution. The more biologically active solutes exhibited a net flushing behavior. The d- excess analysis suggested that streamflow typically has a recent rainfall component (∼25%) with transit time less than the sampling resolution of 7 days, and a more well-mixed groundwater component (∼75%). The contemporaneous stream sample sets showed an overall increase in dissolved solute concentrations with decreasing elevation that may be related to groundwater inputs, different geology, and slope position. A considerable amount of water from rain events runs off as quickflow and bypasses subsurface watershed flowpaths, and better understanding of shallow hillslope and deeper groundwater processes in the watershed will require sub-weekly data and detailed transit time modeling. A combined isotopic and solute chemistry approach can guide further studies to a more comprehensive model of the hydrology, and inform decisions for managing water supply with future changes in climate and land use.

Applied Geochemistry↗
USGS2015

Application of Bayesian Networks to hindcast barrier island morphodynamics

Prediction of coastal vulnerability is of increasing concern to policy makers, coastal managers and other stakeholders. Coastal regions and barrier islands along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts are subject to frequent, large storms, whose waves and storm surge can dramatically alter beach morphology, threaten infrastructure, and impact local economies. Given that precise forecasts of regional hazards are challenging, because of the complex interactions between processes on many scales, a range of probable geomorphic change in response to storm conditions is often more helpful than deterministic predictions. Site-specific probabilistic models of coastal change are reliable because they are formulated with observations so that local factors, of potentially high influence, are inherent in the model. The development and use of predictive tools such as Bayesian Networks in response to future storms has the potential to better inform management decisions and hazard preparation in coastal communities. We present several Bayesian Networks designed to hindcast distinct morphologic changes attributable to the Nor'Ida storm of 2009, at Fire Island, New York. Model predictions are informed with historical system behavior, initial morphologic conditions, and a parameterized treatment of wave climate. We refine a preliminary Bayesian Network by 1) increasing model experience through additional observations, 2) including anthropogenic modification history, and 3) replacing parameterized wave impact values with maximum run-up elevation. Further, we develop and train a pair of generalized models with an additional dataset encompassing a different storm event, which expands the observations beyond our hindcast objective. We compare the skill of the generalized models against the Nor'Ida specific model formulation, balancing the reduced skill with an expectation of increased transferability. Results of Nor'Ida hindcasts ranged in skill from 0.37 to 0.51 and accuracy of 65.0 to 81.9%.

New York↗
USGS2013

The contribution of cold winter temperatures to the 2003 alewife population collapse in Lake Huron

The Lake Huron ecosystem has recently undergone dramatic changes. As part of those changes, the once highly abundant non-native alewife Alosa pseudoharengus population crashed in 2003 and has yet to recover. The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether temperature played a role in the population crash, because historically alewife have been subject to die-off events in response to cold temperatures in other lakes. Long-term climate data (1973–2009) showed that the winter of 2002–2003 exhibited the largest drop in degree days relative to the previous year, had the most extensive average March ice coverage, and was among the coldest years on record. However, since 2003, winter temperatures have not been overly cold, and air temperature has shown an increasing trend. Also, the relationship between temperature and alewife abundance between 1975 and 2006 was non-significant. Therefore, although we found evidence that cold winter temperatures contributed to the abrupt decline of alewife in 2003, they could not explain why the population failed to recover as it had after previous cold winters. Historically, Chinook salmon abundance contributed to long-term trends in alewife abundance, however, we found predation by Chinook to play a lesser role on the 2003 alewife collapse. In the absence of direct estimates of food availability, analyses of alewife length data suggest that a declining prey base altered the ecosystem conditions for alewife, possibly contributing to their collapse and lack of recovery.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗
USGS2013

The PRISM (Pliocene Palaeoclimate) reconstruction: Time for a paradigm shift

Global palaeoclimate reconstructions have been invaluable to our understanding of the causes and effects of climate change, but single-temperature representations of the oceanic mixed layer for data–model comparisons are outdated, and the time for a paradigm shift in marine palaeoclimate reconstruction is overdue. The new paradigm in marine palaeoclimate reconstruction stems the loss of valuable climate information and instead presents a holistic and nuanced interpretation of multi-dimensional oceanographic processes and responses. A wealth of environmental information is hidden within the US Geological Survey's P liocene R esearch, I nterpretation and S ynoptic M apping (PRISM) marine palaeoclimate reconstruction, and we introduce here a plan to incorporate all valuable climate data into the next generation of PRISM products. Beyond the global approach and focus, we plan to incorporate regional climate dynamics with emphasis on processes, integrating multiple environmental proxies wherever available in order to better characterize the mixed layer, and developing a finer time slice within the Mid-Piacenzian Age of the Pliocene, complemented by underused proxies that offer snapshots into environmental conditions. The result will be a proxy-rich, temporally nested, process-oriented approach in a digital format - a relational database with geographic information system capabilities comprising a three-dimensional grid representing the surface layer, with a plethora of data in each cell.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A:↗
USGS2008

Paleo-oceanography of the Norwegian Sea during the past 130,000 years: Coccolithophorid and foraminferal data

Faunal, floral and sedimentological properties of Norwegian Sea core V27-86 were examined in order to reconstruct the paleo-oceanographic history of this region. Downcore variations in the relative abundance of three microfossil groups and several sediment properties exhibit three different climate response patterns (CRP). Each pattern is judged to represent the response of a different part of the climate system. The covariance patterns among coccoliths, henthic foraminifera, and other properties suggest that the Norwegian Sea has been ice-free and productive during the present interhlacial. the penultimate interglacial (isotopic-stage se) and at least partially ice-free during an intermediate climatic regime (stages sa-d). A maximum change in these measures occurs at the boundary between isotopic stage 5a (an intermediate climatic regime)and isotopic stage 4 (a glacial climatic regime). In contrast, planktic foraminiferal assemblages and oxygen isotope measurements on planktic foraminifera show a major change at the end of stage 5e (the penultimate interglacial). The contrasting behavior of these two sets of observations is explained by a model which postulates a low-salinity surface layer 115,000 to 75,000 years ago (stages 5a-d).

Boreas↗
USGS2009

Effects of an unseasonable snowstorm on red-faced Warbler nesting success

Earlier initiation of nests by breeding birds may reflect an adaptive response to changes in food availability or warming of spring temperatures, but the consequences of initiating nests too early may be severe, particularly at high elevations. A rare snowstorm in late May 2008 resulted in nest abandonment by 68% of Red-faced Warblers (Cardellina rubrifrons) breeding in a high-elevation riparian ecosystem of southeastern Arizona. In addition, climate data from our study site from 1950 to 2008 revealed higher-than-average springtime temperatures during the past 10 years. If birds respond to this increase in springtime temperatures by nesting earlier their vulnerability to spring snowstorms may increase. ?? 2009 by The Cooper Ornithological Society. All rights reserved.

Condor↗