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At least 1,783 records · Page 99Linked to original sources
USGS2017

Riparian plant composition along hydrologic gradients in a dryland river basin and implications for a warming climate

Droughts in dryland regions on all continents are expected to increase in severity and duration under future climate projections. In dryland regions, it is likely that minimum streamflow will decrease with some perennial streams shifting to intermittent flow under climate-driven changes in precipitation and runoff and increases in temperature. Decreasing base flow and shifting flow regimes from perennial to intermittent could have significant implications for stream-dependent biota, including riparian vegetation. In this study, we asked, how do riparian plant communities vary along wet-to-dry hydrologic gradients on small (first–third order) streams? We collected data on geomorphic, hydrologic, and plant community characteristics on 54 stream sites ranging in hydrology from intermittent to perennial flow across the Upper Colorado River Basin (284,898 km 2 ). We found that plant communities varied along hydrologic gradients from high to low elevation between streams, and perennial to intermittent flow. We identified indicator species associated with different hydrologic conditions and suggest how plant communities may shift under warmer, drier conditions. Our results indicate that species richness and cover of total, perennial, wetland, and native plant groups will decrease while annual plants will increase under drying conditions. Understanding how plant communities respond to regional drivers such as hydroclimate requires broad-scale approaches such as sampling across whole river basins. With increasingly arid conditions in many regions of the globe, understanding plant community shifts is key to understanding the future of riparian ecosystems.

Upper Colorado River Basin↗
USGS2019

Ecological islands: Conserving biodiversity hotspots in a changing climate

For decades, botanists have recognized that rare plants are clustered into ecological “islands”: small and isolated habitat patches produced by landscape features such as sinkholes and bedrock outcrops. Insular ecosystems often provide unusually stressful microhabitats for plant growth (eg because of thin soils, high temperatures, extreme pH, or limited nutrients) to which rare species are specially adapted. Climate-driven shifts to these stressors may undermine the competitive advantage of stress-adapted species, allowing them to be displaced by competitors, or may overwhelm their coping strategies altogether. Special features of insular ecosystems—such as extreme habitat fragmentation and association with unusual landscape features—may also affect their climate sensitivity and adaptive capacity. To predict and manage these changes, a simple conceptual framework is presented based on a synthesis of over 300 site-level studies. Using this framework, conservation efforts can leverage existing ecological knowledge to anticipate changes in particular microhabitats and design targeted strategies for conserving rare species.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗
USGS2025

Toward a shared vision for climate-informed resource stewardship

Climate-change adaptation planning processes and tools are increasing in number and evolving rapidly. During times of innovation and proliferation, a potential danger is incoherence, when well-intended contributions can overwhelm, create confusion, or mask complementarities. A shared vision is needed to avoid duplication, reduce misunderstandings, and facilitate work across jurisdictions to steward resources undergoing profound changes. Such a vision would document fundamental tools and approaches while allowing flexibility to match highly varied management contexts and organizational missions. Fortunately, the preconditions for coherence exist. Here, we illustrate how climate-change adaptation tools—including scenario planning, conceptual frameworks, structured decision making, and impact-evaluation methods—can be (and are) used in tandem to support adaptation planning that accounts for uncertainty, considers a broad range of strategies and actions, makes transparent and robust choices, evaluates outcomes, and is flexible and responsive to the decision context.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗
USGS2020

Hillslopes in humid-tropical climates aren’t always wet: Implications for hydrologic response and landslide initiation in Puerto Rico, USA

The devastating impacts of the widespread flooding and landsliding in Puerto Rico following the September 2017 landfall of Hurricane Maria highlight the increasingly extreme atmospheric disturbances and enhanced hazard potential in mountainous humid‐tropical climate zones. Long‐standing conceptual models for hydrologically driven hazards in Puerto Rico posit that hillslope soils remain wet throughout the year, and therefore, that antecedent soil wetness imposes a negligible effect on hazard potential. Our post‐Maria in situ hillslope hydrologic observations, however, indicate that while some slopes remain wet throughout the year, others exhibit appreciable seasonal and intra‐storm subsurface drainage. Therefore, we evaluated the performance of hydro‐meteorological (soil wetness and rainfall) versus intensity‐duration (rainfall only) hillslope hydrologic response thresholds that identify the onset of positive pore‐water pressure, a predisposing factor for widespread slope instability in this region. Our analyses also consider the role of soil‐water storage and infiltration rates on runoff generation, which are relevant factors for flooding hazards. We found that the hydro‐meteorological thresholds outperformed intensity‐duration thresholds for a seasonally wet, coarse‐grained soil, although they did not outperform intensity‐duration thresholds for a perennially wet, fine‐grained soil. These end‐member soils types may also produce radically different stormflow responses, with subsurface flow being more common for the coarse‐grained soils underlain by intrusive rocks versus infiltration excess and/or saturation excess for the fine‐grained soils underlain by volcaniclastic rocks. We conclude that variability in soil‐hydraulic properties, as opposed to climate zone, is the dominant factor that controls runoff generation mechanisms and modulates the relative importance of antecedent soil wetness for our hillslope hydrologic response thresholds.

Puerto Rico↗
USGS2014

Interactive effects of climate change with nutrients, mercury, and freshwater acidification on key taxa in the North Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative region

The North Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative LCC (NA LCC) is a public–private partnership that provides information to support conservation decisions that may be affected by global climate change (GCC) and other threats. The NA LCC region extends from southeast Virginia to the Canadian Maritime Provinces. Within this region, the US National Climate Assessment documented increases in air temperature, total precipitation, frequency of heavy precipitation events, and rising sea level, and predicted more drastic changes. Here, we synthesize literature on the effects of GCC interacting with selected contaminant, nutrient, and environmental processes to adversely affect natural resources within this region. Using a case study approach, we focused on 3 stressors with sufficient NA LCC region-specific information for an informed discussion. We describe GCC interactions with a contaminant (Hg) and 2 complex environmental phenomena—freshwater acidification and eutrophication. We also prepared taxa case studies on GCC- and GCC-contaminant/nutrient/process effects on amphibians and freshwater mussels. Several avian species of high conservation concern have blood Hg concentrations that have been associated with reduced nesting success. Freshwater acidification has adversely affected terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems in the Adirondacks and other areas of the region that are slowly recovering due to decreased emissions of N and sulfur oxides. Eutrophication in many estuaries within the region is projected to increase from greater storm runoff and less denitrification in riparian wetlands. Estuarine hypoxia may be exacerbated by increased stratification. Elevated water temperature favors algal species that produce harmful algal blooms (HABs). In several of the region's estuaries, HABs have been associated with bird die-offs. In the NA LCC region, amphibian populations appear to be declining. Some species may be adversely affected by GCC through higher temperatures and more frequent droughts. GCC may affect freshwater mussel populations via altered stream temperatures and increased sediment loading during heavy storms. Freshwater mussels are sensitive to un-ionized ammonia that more toxic at higher temperatures. We recommend studying the interactive effects of GCC on generation and bioavailability of methylmercury and how GCC-driven shifts in bird species distributions will affect avian exposure to methylmercury. Research is needed on how decreases in acid deposition concurrent with GCC will alter the structure and function of sensitive watersheds and surface waters. Studies are needed to determine how GCC will affect HABs and avian disease, and how more severe and extensive hypoxia will affect fish and shellfish populations. Regarding amphibians, we suggest research on 1) thermal tolerance and moisture requirements of species of concern, 2) effects of multiple stressors (temperature, desiccation, contaminants, nutrients), and 3) approaches to mitigate impacts of increased temperature and seasonal drought. We recommend studies to assess which mussel species and populations are vulnerable and which are resilient to rising stream temperatures, hydrological shifts, and ionic pollutants, all of which are influenced by GCC.

Chesapeake Bay↗
USGS2006

Multidecadal climate variability of global lands and oceans

Principal components analysis (PCA) and singular value decomposition (SVD) are used to identify the primary modes of decadal and multidecadal variability in annual global Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) values and sea-surface temperature (SSTs). The PDSI and SST data for 1925-2003 were detrended and smoothed (with a 10-year moving average) to isolate the decadal and multidecadal variability. The first two principal components (PCs) of the PDSI PCA explained almost 38% of the decadal and multidecadal variance in the detrended and smoothed global annual PDSI data. The first two PCs of detrended and smoothed global annual SSTs explained nearly 56% of the decadal variability in global SSTs. The PDSI PCs and the SST PCs are directly correlated in a pairwise fashion. The first PDSI and SST PCs reflect variability of the detrended and smoothed annual Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), as well as detrended and smoothed annual Indian Ocean SSTs. The second set of PCs is strongly associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The SVD analysis of the cross-covariance of the PDSI and SST data confirmed the close link between the PDSI and SST modes of decadal and multidecadal variation and provided a verification of the PCA results. These findings indicate that the major modes of multidecadal variations in SSTs and land-surface climate conditions are highly interrelated through a small number of spatially complex but slowly varying teleconnections. Therefore, these relations may be adaptable to providing improved baseline conditions for seasonal climate forecasting. Published in 2006 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

International Journal of Climatology↗
USGS2012

Climatic trends over Ethiopia: regional signals and drivers

This study analyses observed and projected climatic trends over Ethiopia, through analysis of temperature and rainfall records and related meteorological fields. The observed datasets include gridded station records and reanalysis products; while projected trends are analysed from coupled model simulations drawn from the IPCC 4th Assessment. Upward trends in air temperature of + 0.03 °C year −1 and downward trends in rainfall of − 0.4 mm month −1 year −1 have been observed over Ethiopia's southwestern region in the period 1948-2006. These trends are projected to continue to 2050 according to the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab model using the A1B scenario. Large scale forcing derives from the West Indian Ocean where significant warming and increased rainfall are found. Anticyclonic circulations have strengthened over northern and southern Africa, limiting moisture transport from the Gulf of Guinea and Congo. Changes in the regional Walker and Hadley circulations modulate the observed and projected climatic trends. Comparing past and future patterns, the key features spread westward from Ethiopia across the Sahel and serve as an early warning of potential impacts.

International Journal of Climatology↗
USGS2019

Assessment of uncertainty in multi-model means of downscaled south Florida precipitation for projected (2019-2099) climate

South Florida resource management, particularly the Everglades restoration effort, is beginning to consider projections of precipitation from multiple climate models for decision-making. Because precipitation changes can significantly affect the Everglades ecosystem, characterization of precipitation projection uncertainty is important for resource management decisions, and reduction of uncertainty is desired for better decision-making. Though uncertainty of precipitation projections has been characterized for many regions, uncertainty has not been sufficiently quantified for south Florida. This study builds upon prior results for projected Florida precipitation by adding recent climate model simulations, seasonal and spatial information, and uncertainty quantification and reduction. We identify the multi-model mean change in south Florida precipitation and characterize the uncertainty of 37 statistically downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models. For 2019−45, there is a likely (over 60% of ensemble members) increase in south Florida annual mean precipitation owing to a likely to very likely (near 90% of ensemble members) increase in dry season (November, December, January) precipitation, while wet season (June, July, August) shows a more likely than not (over 50% of ensemble members) decrease in precipitation in southern region and increase in precipitation in northern region. As south Florida agencies are on the verge of including precipitation projections in their upcoming planning horizon, this information will aid south Florida practitioners in decisions influenced by future rainfall.

South Florida↗
USGS2010

A 15 000-year record of climate change in northern New Mexico, USA, inferred from isotopic and elemental contents of bog sediments

Elemental (C, N, Pb) and isotopic ( δ 13 C, δ 15 N) measurements of cored sediment from a small bog in northern New Mexico reveal changes in climate during the Late Pleistocene and Holocene. Abrupt increases in Pb concentration and δ 13 C values ca. 14 420 cal. YBP indicate significant runoff to the shallow lake that existed at that time. Weathering and transport of local volcanic rocks resulted in the delivery of Pb-bearing minerals to the basin, while a 13 C-enriched terrestrial vegetation source increased the δ 13 C values of the sedimentary material. Wet conditions developed over a 300 a period and lasted for a few hundred years. The Younger Dryas period (ca. 12 700–11 500 cal. YBP) caused a reduction in terrestrial productivity reflected in decreasing C/N values, δ 15 N values consistently greater than 0‰ and low organic content. By contrast, aquatic productivity increased during the second half of this period, evidenced by increasing δ 13 C values at the time of highest abundance of algae. Dry conditions ca. 8 000–6 000 cal. YBP were characterised by low organic carbon content and high Pb concentrations, the latter suggesting enhanced erosion and aeolian transport of volcanic rock. The range in δ 13 C, δ 15 N and C/N values in the sedimentary record fall within the range of modern plants, except during the periods of runoff and drought. The sedimentary record provides evidence of natural climate variability in northern New Mexico, including short- (multi-centennial) and long-(millennial) term episodes during the Late Pleistocene and Holocene.

Journal of Quaternary Science↗
USGS2021

Optimal strategies for managing wildlife harvest under climate change

Wildlife populations are experiencing shifting dynamics due to climate and landscape change. Management policies that fail to account for non‐stationary dynamics may fail to achieve management objectives. We establish a framework for understanding optimal strategies for managing a theoretical harvested population under non‐stationarity. Building from harvest theory, we develop scenarios representing changes in population growth rate ( ) or carrying capacity ( ) and derive time‐dependent optimal harvest policies using stochastic dynamic programming. We then evaluate the cost of falsely assuming stationarity by comparing the outcomes of forward projections in which either the optimal policy or a stationary policy is applied. When declines over time, the stationary policy leads to an underharvest of the population, resulting in less harvest over the short term but leaving the population in a higher‐value state. When declines over time, the stationary policy leads to overharvest, resulting in greater harvest returns in the short term but leaving the population in a lower and potentially more vulnerable state. This work demonstrates the basic properties of time‐dependent harvest management and provides a framework for evaluating the many outstanding questions about optimal management strategies under climate change. Published 2021. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗
USGS2015

Climate change impacts on lake thermal dynamics and ecosystem vulnerabilities

Using water column temperature records collected since 1968, we analyzed the impacts of climate change on thermal properties, stability intensity, length of stratification, and deep mixing dynamics of Lake Tahoe using a modified stability index (SI). This new SI is easier to produce and is a more informative measure of deep lake stability than commonly used stability indices. The annual average SI increased at 16.62 kg/m 2 /decade although the summer (May–October) average SI increased at a higher rate (25.42 kg/m 2 /decade) during the period 1968–2014. This resulted in the lengthening of the stratification season by approximately 24 d. We simulated the lake thermal structure over a future 100 yr period using a lake hydrodynamic model driven by statistically downscaled outputs of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Model (GFDL) for two different green house gas emission scenarios (the A2 in which greenhouse-gas emissions increase rapidly throughout the 21 st Century, and the B1 in which emissions slow and then level off by the late 21 st Century). The results suggest a continuation and intensification of the already observed trends. The length of stratification duration and the annual average lake stability are projected to increase by 38 d and 12 d and 30.25 kg/m 2 /decade and 8.66 kg/m 2 /decade, respectively for GFDLA2 and GFDLB1, respectively during 2014–2098. The consequences of this change bear the hallmarks of climate change induced lake warming and possible exacerbation of existing water quality, quantity and ecosystem changes. The developed methodology could be extended and applied to other lakes as a tool to predict changes in stratification and mixing dynamics.

California, Nevada↗
USGS2017

Highest pluvial-lake shorelines and Pleistocene climate of the western Great Basin

Shoreline altitudes of several pluvial lakes in the western Great Basin of North America record successively smaller lakes from the early to the late Pleistocene. This decrease in lake size indicates a long-term drying trend in the regional climate that is not seen in global marine oxygen-isotope records. At +70 m above its late Pleistocene shoreline, Lake Lahontan in the early middle Pleistocene submerged some basins previously thought to have been isolated. Other basins known to contain records of older pluvial lakes that exceeded late Pleistocene levels include Columbus-Fish Lake (Lake Columbus-Rennie), Kobeh-Diamond (Lakes Jonathan and Diamond), Newark, Long (Lake Hubbs), and Clover. Very high stands of some of these lakes probably triggered overflows of previously internally drained basins, adding to the size of Lake Lahontan. Simple calculations based on differences in lake area suggest that the highest levels of these pluvial lakes required a regional increase in effective moisture by a factor of 1.2 to 3 relative to late Pleistocene pluvial amounts (assuming that effective moisture is directly proportional to the hydrologic index, or lake area/tributary basin area). These previously unknown lake levels reflect significant changes in climate, tectonics, and (or) drainage-basin configurations, and could have facilitated migration of aquatic species in the Great Basin.

Quaternary Research↗
USGS2017

Paleoecology of a Northern Michigan Lake and the relationship among climate, vegetation, and Great Lakes water levels

We reconstructed Holocene water-level and vegetation dynamics based on pollen and plant macrofossils from a coastal lake in Upper Michigan. Our primary objective was to test the hypothesis that major fluctuations in Great Lakes water levels resulted in part from climatic changes. We also used our data to provide temporal constraints to the mid-Holocene dry period in Upper Michigan. From 9600 to 8600 cal yr B.P. a shallow, lacustrine environment characterized the Mud Lake basin. A Sphagnum -dominated wetland occupied the basin during the mid-Holocene dry period (∼8600 to 6600 cal yr B.P.). The basin flooded at 6600 cal yr B.P. as a result of rising water levels associated with the onset of the Nipissing I phase of ancestral Lake Superior. This flooding event occurred contemporaneously with a well-documented regional expansion of Tsuga . Betula pollen increased during the Nipissing II phase (4500 cal yr B.P.). Macrofossil evidence from Mud Lake suggests that Betula alleghaniensis expansion was primarily responsible for the rising Betula pollen percentages. Major regional and local vegetational changes were associated with all the major Holocene highstands of the western Great Lakes (Nipissing I, Nipissing II, and Algoma). Traditional interpretations of Great Lakes water-level history should be revised to include a major role of climate.

Quaternary Research↗
USGS2017

Last interglacial climates

The last interglacial, commonly understood as an interval with climate as warm or warmer than today, is represented by marine isotope stage (MIS) 5e, which is a proxy record of low global ice volume and high sea level. It is arbitrarily dated to begin at approximately 130,000 yr B.P. and end at 116,000 yr B.P. with the onset of the early glacial unit MIS 5d. The age of the stage is determined by correlation to uranium-thorium dates of raised coral reefs. The most detailed proxy record of interglacial climate is found in the Vostok ice core where the temperature reached current levels 132,000 yr ago and continued rising for another two millennia. Approximately 127,000 yr ago the Eemian mixed forests were established in Europe. They developed through a characteristic succession of tree species, probably surviving well into the early glacial stage in southern parts of Europe. After ca. 115,000 yr ago, open vegetation replaced forests in northwestern Europe and the proportion of conifers increased significantly farther south. Air temperature at Vostok dropped sharply. Pulses of cold water affected the northern North Atlantic already in late MIS 5e, but the central North Atlantic remained warm throughout most of MIS 5d. Model results show that the sea surface in the eastern tropical Pacific warmed when the ice grew and sea level dropped. The essentially interglacial conditions in southwestern Europe remained unaffected by ice buildup until late MIS 5d when the forests disappeared abruptly and cold water invaded the central North Atlantic ca. 107,000 yr ago. ?? 2002 University of Washington.

Quaternary Research↗
USGS2017

Holocene vegetation and climate history of the northern Bighorn Basin, southern Montana

Records of Holocene vegetation and climate change at low elevations (<2000 m) are rare in the central Rocky Mountain region. We developed a record of Holocene vegetation and climate change from 55 14C-dated woodrat middens at two low-elevation sites (1275 to 1590 m, currently vegetated by Juniperus osteosperma woodlands, in the northern Bighorn Basin. Macrofossil and pollen analyses show that the early Holocene was cooler than today, with warming and drying in the middle Holocene. During the Holocene, boreal (Juniperus communis, J. horizontalis) and montane species (J. scopulorum) were replaced by a Great Basin species (J. osteosperma). J. osteosperma colonized the east side of the Pryor Mountains 4700 14C yr B.P. Downward movement of lower treeline indicates wetter conditions between 4400 and 2700 14C yr B.P. Increased aridity after 2700 14C yr B.P. initiated expansion of J. osteosperma from the east to west side of the Pryor Mountains. ?? 2002 University of Washington.

Quaternary Research↗
USGS2009

Stochastic variation in avian survival rates: Life-history predictions, population consequences, and the potential responses to human perturbations and climate change

Stochastic variation in survival rates is expected to decrease long-term population growth rates. This expectation influences both life-history theory and the conservation of species. From this expectation, Pfister ( 1998 ) developed the important life-history prediction that natural selection will have minimized variability in those elements of the annual life cycle (such as adult survival rate) with high sensitivity. This prediction has not been rigorously evaluated for bird populations, in part due to statistical difficulties related to variance estimation. I here overcome these difficulties, and in an analysis of 62 populations, I confirm her prediction by showing a negative relationship between the proportional sensitivity (elasticity) of adult survival and the proportional variance (CV) of adult survival. However, several species deviated significantly from this expectation, with more process variance in survival than predicted. For instance, projecting the magnitude of process variance in annual survival for American redstarts ( Setophaga ruticilla ) for 25 years resulted in a 44% decline in abundance without assuming any change in mean survival rate. For most of these species with high process variance, recent changes in harvest, habitats, or changes in climate patterns are the likely sources of environmental variability causing this variability in survival. Because of climate change, environmental variability is increasing on regional and global scales, which is expected to increase stochasticity in vital rates of species. Increased stochasticity in survival will depress population growth rates, and this result will magnify the conservation challenges we face.

Book chapter↗
USGS2020

Algorithm and data improvements for version 2.1 of the Climate Hazards center’s InfraRed Precipitation with Stations Data Set

To support global drought early warning, the Climate Hazards Center (CHC) at the University of California, Santa Barbara developed the Climate Hazards center InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) dataset, in collaboration with the US Geological Survey and NASA SERVIR. Specifically designed to support early warning applications, CHIRPS has high a spatial resolution (0.05°), a long period of record (1981 to the near present), and relatively low latencies. Here we will describe a brief formal analysis of distributional bias in CHIRPS2.0. This analysis reveals, as expected, that CHIRPS2.0 means are very similar to observed station data. However, a closer look suggests that low precipitation values are underestimated and high values are over-estimated in the CHIRPS2.0. We describe a potential correction for this below.

Book chapter↗
USGS2020

Climate, sea level, and people - Changing South Florida's mangrove coast

South Florida’s coast is a land of contrasts that appeals to almost everyone, whether they seek out quiet natural environments along the mangrove waterways and in the wilderness of the Everglades or vibrant international culture in Miami. Yet this paradise is threatened by a number of forces – changing climate, rising sea level, and too many people, to name a few. Florida’s past is filled with stories of dramatic change and resiliency, if we look at the geologic record. It also hints at the role of climate alone, in the absence of significant sea level change, in shaping the mangrove coast. Using our knowledge of present-day processes, such as impacts of storms on the mangroves, combined with our interpretation of the past geologic record, is the best way to anticipate future changes. The question is, have humans altered this landscape so much that the species and habitats have lost their natural resiliency, and if they have, what will happen to the people and the unique environments of south Florida?

Florida↗