Geology Reports⌕ Search

SEARCH · Geology Reports

Results for “Trends”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,765 records · Page 98Linked to original sources
USGS1999

Fraser River watershed, Colorado — Assessment of available water-quantity and water-quality data through water year 1997

The water-quantity and water-quality data for the Fraser River watershed through water year 1997 were compiled for ground-water and surface-water sites. In order to assess the water-quality data, the data were related to land use/land cover in the watershed. Data from 81 water-quantity and water-quality sites, which consisted of 9 ground-water sites and 72 surface-water sites, were available for analysis. However, the data were limited and frequently contained only one or two water-quality analyses per site. The Fraser River flows about 28 miles from its headwaters at the Continental Divide to the confluence with the Colorado River. Ground-water resources in the watershed are used for residential and municipal drinking-water supplies. Surface water is available for use, but water diversions in the upper parts of the watershed reduce the flow in the river. Land use/land cover in the watershed is predominantly forested land, but increasing urban development has the potential to affect the quantity and quality of the water resources. Analysis of the limited ground-water data in the watershed indicates that changes in the land use/land cover affect the shallow ground-water quality. Water-quality data from eight shallow monitoring wells in the alluvial aquifer show that iron and manganese concentrations exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency secondary maximum contaminant level. Radon concentrations from these monitoring wells exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency proposed maximum contaminant level. The proposed radon contaminant level is currently being revised. The presence of volatile organic compounds at two monitoring wells in the watershed indicates that land use affects the shallow ground water. In addition, bacteria detected in three samples are at concentrations that would be a concern for public health if the water was to be used as a drinking supply. Methylene blue active substances were detected in the ground water at some sites and are a possible indication of contamination from wastewater. Age of the alluvial ground water ranged from 10 to 30 years; therefore, results of land-management practices to improve water quality may not be apparent for many years. Surface-water-quality data for the Fraser River watershed are sparse. The surface-water-quality data show that elevated concentrations of selected constituents generally are related to specific land uses in the watershed. For one sample (about 2 percent; 1 of 53), dissolved manganese concentration exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency secondary maximum contaminant level. Two samples from two surface-water sites in the watershed exceeded the un-ionized ammonia chronic criterion. Spatial distribution of nutrient species (ammonia, nitrite, nitrate, and total phosphorus) shows that elevated concentrations occur primarily downstream from urban areas. Sites with five or more years of record were analyzed for temporal trends in concentration of nutrient species. Downward trends were identified for ammonia and nitrite for three surface-water sites. For nitrate, no trends were observed at two sites and a downward trend was observed at one site. Total phosphorus showed no trend for the site near the mouth of the Fraser River. Downward trends in the nutrient species may reflect changes in the wastewater-treatment facilities in the watershed. Bacteria sampling completed in the watershed indicates that more bacteria are present in the water near urban settings. The limited ground-water and surface-water data for the Fraser River watershed provide a general assessment of the quantity and quality of these resources. Concentrations of most water-quality constituents generally are less than ground- and surface-water-quality standards, but the presence of bacteria, some volatile organic compounds, methylene blue active substances, and increased nutrients in the water may indicate that land use is affecting the water quality.

Colorado↗
USGS2017

Expanding the North American Breeding Bird Survey analysis to include additional species and regions

The North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) contains data for >700 bird species, but analyses often focus on a core group of ∼420 species. We analyzed data for 122 species of North American birds for which data exist in the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) database but are not routinely analyzed on the BBS Summary and Analysis Website. Many of these species occur in the northern part of the continent, on routes that fall outside the core survey area presently analyzed in the United States and southern Canada. Other species not historically analyzed occur in the core survey area with very limited data but have large portions of their ranges in Mexico and south. A third group of species not historically analyzed included species thought to be poorly surveyed by the BBS, such as rare, coastal, or nocturnal species. For 56 species found primarily in regions north of the core survey area, we expanded the scope of the analysis, using data from 1993 to 2014 during which ≥3 survey routes had been sampled in 6 northern strata (Bird Conservation regions in Alaska, Yukon, and Newfoundland and Labrador) and fitting log-linear hierarchical models for an augmented BBS survey area that included both the new northern strata and the core survey area. We also applied this model to 168 species historically analyzed in the BBS that had data from these additional northern strata. For both groups of species we calculated survey-wide trends for the both core and augmented survey areas from 1993 to 2014; for species that did not occur in the newly defined strata, we computed trends from 1966 to 2014. We evaluated trend estimates in terms of established credibility criteria for BBS results, screening for imprecise trends, small samples, and low relative abundance. Inclusion of data from the northern strata permitted estimation of trend for 56 species not historically analyzed, but only 4 of these were reasonably monitored and an additional 13 were questionably monitored; 39 of these species were likely poorly monitored because of small numbers of samples or very imprecisely estimated trends. Only 4 of 66 “new” species found in the core survey area were reasonably monitored by the BBS; 20 were questionably monitored; and 42 were likely poorly monitored by the BBS because of inefficiency in precision, abundance, or sample size. The hierarchical analyses we present provide a means for reasonable inclusion of the additional species and strata in a common analysis with data from the core area, a critical step in the evolution of the BBS as a continent-scale survey. We recommend that results be presented both 1) from 1993 to the present using the expanded survey area, and 2) from 1966 to the present for the core survey area. Although most of the “new” species we analyzed were poorly monitored by the BBS during 1993–2014, continued expansion of the BBS will improve the quality of information in future analyses for these species and for the many other species presently monitored by the BBS.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management↗
USGS1989

Buteos

Red-tailed, red-shouldered, and broad-winged hawks nest throughout the 11 northeastern states, and red-tailed, red-shouldered, and rough-legged hawks winter in this region. Historical and present ranges of these species are similar, although red-shouldered and broad-winged hawk ranges now have more vacant patches at a local and regional level. Only the red-shouldered hawk is of special concern or officially listed as threatened by some state agencies. Analysis of Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data indicated positive trends in counts of red-tailed hawks along the more developed Northeast corridor. No trends were found in analyses of BBS data for red-shouldered hawks in either more- or less-developed regions of the Northeast. Based on the BBS, we found a decreasing trend in counts of broad-winged hawks along the more-developed Northeast corridor, and an increasing trend in less-developed regions of the Northeast. Our analyses of Christmas Bird Count data indicated no trend in counts of red-shouldered nor rough-legged hawks, but an increase in counts of red-tailed hawks from 1962 to 1983. Many individuals believe that species such as the red-shouldered hawk are declining in the Northeast, but no trends were detected in our analyses.

Book chapter↗
USGS2005

Hierarchical models and Bayesian analysis of bird survey information

Summary of bird survey information is a critical component of conservation activities, but often our summaries rely on statistical methods that do not accommodate the limitations of the information. Prioritization of species requires ranking and analysis of species by magnitude of population trend, but often magnitude of trend is a misleading measure of actual decline when trend is poorly estimated. Aggregation of population information among regions is also complicated by varying quality of estimates among regions. Hierarchical models provide a reasonable means of accommodating concerns about aggregation and ranking of quantities of varying precision. In these models the need to consider multiple scales is accommodated by placing distributional assumptions on collections of parameters. For collections of species trends, this allows probability statements to be made about the collections of species-specific parameters, rather than about the estimates. We define and illustrate hierarchical models for two commonly encountered situations in bird conservation: (1) Estimating attributes of collections of species estimates, including ranking of trends, estimating number of species with increasing populations, and assessing population stability with regard to predefined trend magnitudes; and (2) estimation of regional population change, aggregating information from bird surveys over strata. User-friendly computer software makes hierarchical models readily accessible to scientists.

Book chapter↗
USGS1962

Evaluating causes of population change in North American insectivorous songbirds

Although the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) is a principal source of information regarding populations of most North American bird species, many features of the survey complicate analysis of population change. Correlation studies based on BBS data cannot be used to unambiguously define cause and effect relationships. Recently, B?hning-Gaese et al. (1993) presented an analysis of population trends in insectivorous songbirds using data from the BBS. They concluded that predation has played an important role in influencing population trends. We review aspects of the analysis methods for estimating population trends (e.g., observer effects, data subset) and for associating mean trends with species attributes (e.g., confounding of attributes). Using alternative analyses of the same BBS data, we demonstrate that the evidence that predation is associated with population declines is weaker than they suggested. Based on our analyses the only factor among those tested that is consistently associated with population trends is migration status (i.e., short-distance migrant/resident vs. long-distance migrant) during the period 1978-1987. Also, we present evidence that the harsh winters of the mid-1970's severely depressed populations of short-distance migrant species, and may be responsible for the observed associations between migration status and population trends.

Audubon Field Notes↗
USGS2011

Development of a pan-Arctic monitoring plan for polar bears: Background paper

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus), by their very nature, and the extreme, remote environment in which they live, are inherently difficult to study and monitor. Monitoring polar bear populations is both arduous and costly and, to be effective, must be a long-term commitment. There are few jurisdictional governments and management boards with a mandate for polar bear research and management, and many have limited resources. Although population monitoring of polar bears has been a focus to some degree within most jurisdictions around the Arctic, of the 19 subpopulations recognised by the IUCN/Species Survival Commission Polar Bear Specialist Group (PBSG), adequate scientific trend data exist for only three of the subpopulations, fair trend data for five and poor or no trend data for the remaining 11 subpopulations (PBSG 2010a). There are especially critical knowledge gaps for the subpopulations in East Greenland, in the Russian Kara and Laptev seas, and in the Chukchi Sea, which is shared between Russia and the United States. The range covered by these subpopulations represents a third of the total area (approx. 23 million km2) of polar bears’ current range, and more than half if the Arctic Basin is included. If we use popular terms, we know close to nothing about polar bears in this portion of their range. As summer sea-ice extent, and to a lesser degree, spring-time extent, continues to retreat, outpacing model forecasts (Stroeve et al. 2007, Pedersen et al. 2009), polar bears face the challenge of adapting to rapidly changing habitats. There is a need to use current and synthesised information across the Arctic, and to develop new methods that will facilitate monitoring to generate new knowledge at a pan-Arctic scale. The circumpolar dimension can be lost when efforts are channelled into regional monitoring. Developing and implementing a plan that harmonises local, regional and global efforts will increase our power to detect and understand important trends for polar bears, with particular emphasis on how climate warming may differentially affect populations and habitats. Current knowledge is inadequate for a comprehensive understanding of the present and future impact of climate warming and its interaction with other stressors. The cumulative effects are unknown (Laidre et al. 2008). An integrated pan-Arctic research and monitoring plan will improve the ability to detect future trends, identify the most vulnerable subpopulations and guide effective conservation. There is a need to direct attention and resources where data are deficient to understand the mechanisms that drive trends, and to facilitate more effective and timely conservation response.

Report↗
USGS2016

Regional and local correlations of feldspar geochemistry of the Peach Spring Tuff, Alvord Mountain, California

The chemical composition of feldspar grains in an ignimbrite from the Spanish Canyon Formation in the Alvord Mountain area, California, have been used to confirm similarities in three measured sections locally, and they are similar to exposures of the Peach Spring Tuff (PST) regionally. Feldspar grains were identified on the basis of texture (zoning, as mantled feldspars, or in crystal clusters), whether the grains were attached to glass or were in pumice clasts, or were simply crystal fragments with no textural context. Chemistry was determined by electron microprobe analysis, and each analysis is calculated in terms of the percent endmember and plotted on orthoclase (Or) versus anorthite (An) plots. In general, the PST has sanidine and plagioclase compositions that are consistent with having formed in high-silica rhyolite and trachyte within a zoned magma chamber. Feldspars from the PST in Spanish Canyon area cluster along the rhyolitic trend with no grains along the trachytic trend. Similar clustering of feldspars along the rhyolitic trend with no grains along the trachytic trend also occur in the PST from Granite Spring and Providence Mountains to the east of the Alvord Mountain area, and the ranges in compositions are also similar in these locations. In contrast, the PST in the Kane Wash area of the Newberry Mountains has feldspars only from the rhyolitic trend in the basal deposits, but some grains from the trachytic trend are in the upper part of the deposit, and the range in compositions are greater than in the Spanish Canyon area. The variations in vertical compositional zoning and compositional range in these different deposits suggests there were probably different flow paths (or timing of the delivery) during the eruption and runout of the pyroclastic flow(s) generated from the climactic eruption of the PST magma chamber.

Arizon, California, Nevada↗
USGS2017

Sub-indicator: Prey fish

Prey fish communities across the Great Lakes continue to change, although the direction and magnitude of those changes are not consistent across the lakes. The metrics used to categorize prey fish status in this and previous periods are based on elements that are common among each of the lake’s Fish Community Objectives and include diversity and the relative role of native species in the prey fish communities. The diversity index categorized three of lakes as ‘fair’, while Superior and Erie were ‘good’ (Table 1). The short term trend, from the previous period (2008-2010) to the current period (2011-2014) found diversity in Erie and Superior to be unchanging, but the other three lakes to be ‘deteriorating’, resulting in an overall trend categorization of ‘undetermined’ (Table 1). The long term diversity trend suggested Lakes Superior and Erie have the most diverse prey communities although the index for those prey fish have been quite variable over time (Figure 1). In Lake Huron, where non-native alewife have substantially declined, the diversity index has also declined. The continued dominance of alewife in Lake Ontario (96% of the prey fish biomass) resulted in the lowest diversity index value (Figure 1). The proportion of native species within the community was judged as ‘good’ in Lakes Superior and Huron, ‘fair’ in Michigan and Erie and ‘poor’ in Ontario (Table 2). The short term trend was improving in in all lakes except Michigan (‘deteriorating’) and Ontario (‘unchanging’), resulting in an overall short term trend of ‘undetermined’ (Table 2). Over the current period, Lake Superior consistently had the highest proportion native prey fish (87%) while Lake Ontario had the lowest (1%) (Figure 2). Lake Michigan’s percent native has declined as round goby increase and comprises a greater proportion of the community. Native prey fish make up 51% of Lake Erie, although basin-specific values differed (Figure 2). Most notably, native species in Lake Huron comprised less than 10% of the community in 1970, but since alewife have declined, now represent nearly 80% of the community (Figure 2). Prey fish data are most consistent for in-lake populations, which are reported here; data from connecting channels was not consistently available across the basin. Abundance was not used to judge prey fish status since successful, basin-wide management actions, including mineral nutrient input reductions and piscivore restoration, both inherently reduce prey fish abundance. However, recent abundance trends as they relate to predator prey balance are referenced, such as in Lakes Michigan and Huron where piscivore stocking is being reduced to lower predation demand on prey fish populations and maintain sport fisheries.

Great Lakes↗
USGS2022

Golden Eagle (Aquila chysaetos)

The golden eagle ( Aquila chrysaetos ) is commonly recognized as an indicator of ecosystem health and was selected as an important indicator species for the ecological health of lands owned and managed by East Bay Stewardship Network (Network) partner agencies within the area of focus for this project (See map, Chapter 1). Based on national conservation goals and past and current golden eagle research in the area of focus, the desired condition and trend for this indicator species are to: (1) maintain or improve site occupancy by territorial pairs (i.e., the proportion of sites surveyed with at least 1 pair of eagles), (2) maximize reproductive rate (i.e., the proportion of sites surveyed with at least 1 pair of productive eagles), and (3) minimize the occurrence of territorial subadults in the local breeding population. The condition and trend in these three primary metrics were assessed for golden eagles in the area of focus using data from a large-scale demographic study conducted in 2014–2021 by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and others. Overall, we found a condition of “caution” and an “unchanging” trend for golden eagles in the area of focus. Analyses of site occupancy and reproductive rate indicated that the local breeding population was unchanging (i.e., no evidence of increasing or decreasing time trends in these metrics during 2014–2021). However, a consistently high occurrence of territorial subadults (22%–35%) has been observed at breeding territories near the Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area (APWRA) relative to occupied territories monitored in surrounding regions (~3%). The heightened occurrence of territorial subadults suggested a possible increase in the adult mortality rate of territorial eagles occupying the Mt. Diablo Range and Mt. Hamilton subregions in the area of focus. Thus, although no trends were detected in site occupancy or reproductive rate, caution is warranted given the high observed frequency of territorial subadults, which was predominately associated with pairs monitored near the APWRA. The USGS golden eagle study was conducted during a period of prolonged and severe drought in the area of focus, which has been shown elsewhere to reduce the reproductive rate of golden eagles. Although we detected no trends in reproductive rate, we identified a condition of “caution” for this metric in the area of focus given that annual estimates were relatively low during the study period, which primarily included years of severe drought conditions in west-central California. A primary goal of the analysis was to provide a benchmark against which managers can measure future changes and understand the likely trajectory of this species. Baseline data and analyses provided here can be used to identify projects that could help support golden eagle conservation. Given the constraint of using only existing and available data, this evaluation also identified areas where not enough was known to draw meaningful conclusions. Gaps in our understanding include the long-term effects of repeated, extreme climate events (e.g., drought and wildfire) on golden eagle demographics and population sustainability, refined estimates of eagle survivorship and sources of mortality, and whether the APWRA represents a population sink for golden eagles within the northern Diablo Range and surrounding regions. These are described as data gaps at the end of this chapter and may be areas to focus on for future research and collaborations among land managers.

Book chapter↗
USGS2019

The importance of simulation assumptions when evaluating detectability in population models

Population monitoring is important for investigating a variety of ecological questions, and N-mixture models are increasingly used to model population size (N) and trends (lambda) while estimating detectability (p) from repeated counts within primary periods (when populations are closed to changes). Extending these models to dynamic processes with serial dependence across primary periods may relax the closure assumption, but simulations to evaluate models and inform effort (e.g., number of repeated counts) typically assume p is constant or random across sites and years. Thus, it is unknown how these models perform under scenarios where trends in p confound inferences on N and lambda, and conclusions regarding effort may be overoptimistic. Here, we used global positioning system (GPS) data from greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) to inform simulations of the detection process for lek counts of this species, and we created scenarios with and without linear annual trends in p. We then compared estimates of N and lambda from hierarchical population models either fit with single maximum counts or with detectability estimated from repeated counts (dynamic N-mixture models). We also explored using auxiliary data to correct counts for variation in detectability. Uncorrected count models consistently underestimated N by >50% whereas N-mixture models without auxiliary data underestimated N to a lesser degree due to unmodeled heterogeneity in p such as age. Nevertheless, estimates of lambda from both types of models were unbiased and similar for scenarios without trends in p. When p declined systematically across years, uncorrected count models underestimated lambda whereas N-mixture models estimated lambda with little bias when all sites were counted repeatedly. Auxiliary data also reduced bias in parameter estimates. Evaluating population models using scenarios with systematic variation in p may better reveal potential biases and inform effort than simulations that assume p is constant or random. Dynamic N-mixture models can distinguish between trends in p and N, but also require repeated counts within primary periods for accurate estimates. Auxiliary data may be useful when researchers lack repeated counts, wish to monitor more sites less intensively, or require unbiased estimates of N.

Ecosphere↗
USGS2011

The importance of within-year repeated counts and the influence of scale on long-term monitoring of sage-grouse

Long‐term population monitoring is the cornerstone of animal conservation and management. The accuracy and precision of models developed using monitoring data can be influenced by the protocols guiding data collection. The greater sage‐grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) is a species of concern that has been monitored over decades, primarily, by counting the number of males that attend lek (breeding) sites. These lek count data have been used to assess long‐term population trends and for multiple mechanistic studies. However, some studies have questioned the efficacy of lek counts to accurately identify population trends. In response, monitoring protocols were changed to have a goal of counting lek sites multiple times within a season. We assessed the influence of this change in monitoring protocols on model accuracy and precision applying generalized additive models to describe trends over time. We found that at large spatial scales including >50 leks, the absence of repeated counts within a year did not significantly alter population trend estimates or interpretation. Increasing sample size decreased the model confidence intervals. We developed a population trend model for Wyoming greater sage‐grouse from 1965 to 2008, identifying significant changes in the population indices and capturing the cyclic nature of this species. Most sage‐grouse declines in Wyoming occurred between 1965 and the 1990s and lek count numbers generally increased from the mid‐1990s to 2008. Our results validate the combination of monitoring data collected under different protocols in past and future studies—provided those studies are addressing large‐scale questions. We suggest that a larger sample of individual leks is preferable to multiple counts of a smaller sample of leks.

Wyoming↗
USGS2014

Straddling the tholeiitic/calc-alkaline transition: The effects of modest amounts of water on magmatic differentiation at Newberry Volcano, Oregon

Melting experiments have been performed at 1 bar (anhydrous) and 1- and 2-kbar H 2 O-saturated conditions to study the effect of water on the differentiation of a basaltic andesite. The starting material was a mafic pumice from the compositionally zoned tuff deposited during the ~75 ka caldera-forming eruption of Newberry Volcano, a rear-arc volcanic center in the central Oregon Cascades. Pumices in the tuff of Newberry caldera (TNC) span a continuous silica range from 53 to 74 wt% and feature an unusually high-Na 2 O content of 6.5 wt% at 67 wt% SiO 2 . This wide range of magmatic compositions erupted in a single event makes the TNC an excellent natural laboratory in which to study the conditions of magmatic differentiation. Our experimental results and mineral–melt hygrometers/thermometers yield similar estimates of pre-eruptive H 2 O contents and temperatures of the TNC liquids. The most primitive (mafic) basaltic andesites record a pre-eruptive H 2 O content of 1.5 wt% and a liquidus temperature of 1,060–1,070 °C at upper crustal pressure. This modest H 2 O content produces a distinctive fractionation trend that is much more enriched in Na, Fe, and Ti than the calc-alkaline trend typical of wetter arc magmas, but slightly less enriched in Fe and Ti than the tholeiitic trend of dry magmas. Modest H 2 O contents might be expected at Newberry Volcano given its location in the Cascade rear arc, and the same fractionation trend is also observed in the rim andesites of the rear-arc Medicine Lake volcano in the southern Cascades. However, the Na–Fe–Ti enrichment characteristic of modest H 2 O (1–2 wt%) is also observed to the west of Newberry in magmas erupted from the arc axis, such as the Shevlin Park Tuff and several lava flows from the Three Sisters. This shows that modest-H 2 O magmas are being generated directly beneath the arc axis as well as in the rear arc. Because liquid lines of descent are particularly sensitive to water content in the range of 0–3 wt% H 2 O, they provide a quantitative and reliable tool for precisely determining pre-eruptive H 2 O content using major-element data from pumices or lava flows. Coupled enrichment in Na, Fe, and Ti relative to the calc-alkaline trend is a general feature of fractional crystallization in the presence of modest amounts of H 2 O, which may be used to look for “damp” fractionation sequences elsewhere.

Oregon↗
USGS2018

How will East African maize yields respond to climate change and can agricultural development mitigate this response?

We analyze the response of Kenyan maize yields to near-term climate change and explore potential mitigation options. We model county level yields as a function of rainfall and temperature during a period of increased regional warming and drying (1989–2008). We then do a counter factual analysis by comparing existing maize yields from 2000 to 2008 to what yields might have been if observed warming and drying trends had not occurred. We also examine maize yields based on projected 2026–2040 climate trends. Without the observed warming and drying trends, Eastern Kenya would have had an 8% increase in maize yields, which in turn would have led to a net production increase of 500,000 metric tons. In Western Kenya, the magnitude of change is higher but the relative changes in predicted values are smaller. If warming and drying trends continue, we expect future maize yields to decline by 11% in Eastern Kenya (vs. 7% in Western Kenya). We also examine whether these future losses might be offset through agricultural development. For that analysis, we use a household panel dataset (2000, 2005) with measurements of individual farm plot yields, inputs, and outputs. We find that under a scenario of aggressive adoption of hybrid seeds and fertilizer usage coupled with warming and drying trends, yields in Western Kenya might increase by 6% while those in Eastern Kenya could increase by 14%. This increase in yields might be larger if there is a corresponding increase in usage of drought-tolerant hybrids. However, wide prediction intervals across models highlight the uncertainty in these outcomes and scenarios.

Climatic Change↗
USGS2016

Integration of genetic and demographic data to assess population risk in a continuously distributed species

The identification and demographic assessment of biologically meaningful populations is fundamental to species’ ecology and management. Although genetic tools are used frequently to identify populations, studies often do not incorporate demographic data to understand their respective population trends. We used genetic data to define subpopulations in a continuously distributed species. We assessed demographic independence and variation in population trends across the distribution. Additionally, we identified potential barriers to gene flow among subpopulations. We sampled greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) leks from across their range (≈175,000 Km 2 ) in Wyoming and amplified DNA at 14 microsatellite loci for 1761 samples. Subsequently, we assessed population structure in unrelated individuals ( n = 872) by integrating results from multiple Bayesian clustering approaches and used the boundaries to inform our assessment of long-term population trends and lek activity over the period of 1995–2013. We identified four genetic clusters of which two northern ones showed demographic independence from the others. Trends in population size for the northwest subpopulation were statistically different from the other three genetic clusters and the northeast and southwest subpopulations demonstrated a general trend of increasing proportion of inactive leks over time. Population change from 1996 to 2012 suggested population growth in the southern subpopulations and decline, or neutral, change in the northern subpopulations. We suggest that sage-grouse subpopulations in northern Wyoming are at greater risk of extirpation than the southern subpopulations due to smaller census and effective population sizes and higher variability within subpopulations. Our research is an example of incorporating genetic and demographic data and provides guidance on the identification of subpopulations of conservation concern.

Conservation Genetics↗
USGS2010

Climate warming-induced intensification of the hydrologic cycle: A review of the published record and assessment of the potential impacts on agriculture

Climate warming is expected to intensify and accelerate the global hydrologic cycle resulting in increases in evaporation, evapotranspiration (ET), atmospheric water-vapor content, and precipitation. The strength of the hydrologic response, or sensitivity of the response for a given degree of warming, is a critical outstanding question in climatology and hydrology. In this review chapter, I examine the published record of trends in various components of the hydrologic cycle and associated variables to assess observed hydrologic responses to warming during the period of observational records. Global and regional trends in evaporation, ET, and atmospheric water-vapor content and several large river basin water-balance studies support an ongoing intensification of the hydrologic cycle. Global trends in precipitation, runoff, and soil moisture are more uncertain than the trends in the variables noted above, in part because of high spatial and temporal variability. Trends in associated variables, such as systematic changes in ocean salinity, the length of the growing season, and the rate of precipitation recycling are generally consistent with intensification of the hydrologic cycle. The evidence for an increase in the frequency, intensity, or duration of extreme-weather events like hurricanes is mixed and remains uncertain. The largest potential impacts to agricultural systems depend greatly on the responses of hydrologic variables that are the most uncertain; for example, intensity and duration of heavy rainfall events; frequency, intensity, and duration of major storms and droughts; and rates of erosion. Impacts on agriculture will depend greatly on how insects, diseases, weeds, nutrient cycling, effectiveness of agrichemicals, and heat stress are affected by an intensification of the hydrologic cycle.

Advances in Agronomy↗
USGS2009

Alligators and crocodiles as indicators for restoration of Everglades ecosystems

Alligators and crocodiles integrate biological impacts of hydrological operations, affecting them at all life stages through three key aspects of Everglades ecology: (1) food webs, (2) diversity and productivity, and (3) freshwater flow. Responses of crocodilians are directly related to suitability of environmental conditions and hydrologic change. Correlations between biological responses and environmental conditions contribute to an understanding of species' status and trends over time. Positive or negative trends of crocodilian populations relative to hydrologic changes permit assessment of positive or negative trends in restoration. The crocodilian indicator uses monitoring parameters (performance measures) that have been shown to be both effective and efficient in tracking trends. The alligator component uses relative density (reported as an encounter rate), body condition, and occupancy rates of alligator holes; the crocodile component uses juvenile growth and hatchling survival. We hypothesize that these parameters are correlated with hydrologic conditions including depth, duration, timing, spatial extent and water quality. Salinity is a critical parameter in estuarine habitats. Assessments of parameters defined for crocodilian performance measures support these hypotheses. Alligators and crocodiles are the charismatic megafauna of the Everglades. They are both keystone and flagship species to which the public can relate. In addition, the parameters used to track trends are easy to understand. They provide answers to the following questions: How has the number of alligators or crocodiles changed? Are the animals fatter or thinner than they should be? Are the animals in the places (in terms of habitat and geography) where they should be? As surely as there is no other Everglades, no other single species defines the Everglades as does the American alligator. The Everglades is the only place in the world where both alligators and crocodiles exist. Crocodilians clearly respond to changes in hydrologic parameters of management interest. These relationships are easy to communicate and mean something to managers, decision makers, and the public. Having crocodilians on the list of system-wide, general indicators provides us with one of the most powerful tools we have to communicate progress of ecosystem restoration in Greater Everglades ecosystems to diverse audiences.

Florida↗
USGS2013

Evaluation of the rhenium-osmium geochronometer in the Phosphoria petroleum system, Bighorn Basin of Wyoming and Montana, USA

Rhenium-osmium (Re-Os) geochronometry is applied to crude oils derived from the Permian Phosphoria Formation of the Bighorn Basin in Wyoming and Montana to determine whether the radiogenic age reflects the timing of petroleum generation, timing of migration, age of the source rock, or the timing of thermochemical sulfate reduction (TSR). The oils selected for this study are interpreted to be derived from the Meade Peak Phosphatic Shale and Retort Phosphatic Shale Members of the Phosphoria Formation based on oil-oil and oil-source rock correlations utilizing bulk properties, elemental composition, δ 13 C and δ 34 S values, and biomarker distributions. The δ 34 S values of the oils range from -6.2‰ to +5.7‰, with oils heavier than -2‰ interpreted to be indicative of TSR. The Re and Os isotope data of the Phosphoria oils plot in two general trends: (1) the main trend (n = 15 oils) yielding a Triassic age (239 ± 43 Ma) with an initial 187 Os/ 188 Os value of 0.85 ± 0.42 and a mean square weighted deviation (MSWD) of 1596, and (2) the Torchlight trend (n = 4 oils) yielding a Miocene age (9.24 ± 0.39 Ma) with an initial 187Os/188Os value of 1.88 ± 0.01 and a MSWD of 0.05. The scatter (high MSWD) in the main-trend regression is due, in part, to TSR in reservoirs along the eastern margin of the basin. Excluding oils that have experienced TSR, the regression is significantly improved, yielding an age of 211 ± 21 Ma with a MSWD of 148. This revised age is consistent with some studies that have proposed Late Triassic as the beginning of Phosphoria oil generation and migration, and does not seem to reflect the source rock age (Permian) or the timing of re-migration (Late Cretaceous to Eocene) associated with the Laramide orogeny. The low precision of the revised regression (±21 Ma) is not unexpected for this oil family given the long duration of generation from a large geographic area of mature Phosphoria source rock, and the possible range in the initial 187 Os/ 188 Os values of the Meade Peak and Retort source units. Effects of re-migration may have contributed to the scatter, but thermal cracking and biodegradation likely have had minimal or no effect on the main-trend regression. The four Phosphoria-sourced oils from Torchlight and Lamb fields yield a precise Miocene age Re-Os isochron that may reflect the end of TSR in the reservoir due to cooling below a threshold temperature in the last 10 m.y. from uplift and erosion of overlying rocks. The mechanism for the formation of a Re-Os isotopic relationship in a family of crude oils may involve multiple steps in the petroleum generation process. Bitumen generation from the source rock kerogen may provide a reset of the isotopic chronometer, and incremental expulsion of oil over the duration of the oil window may provide some of the variation seen in 187 Re/ 188 Os values from an oil family.

Montana, Wyoming↗
USGS2026

Hakalau’s moving castle: How climate change and restoration are shifting an island fortress for forest birds

Hakalau Forest Unit of the Big Island National Wildlife Refuge Complex (hereafter, Hakalau) protects the largest area with the highest endemic forest bird diversity in Hawaiʻi, including four federally listed species. Hakalau’s higher elevation montane forest provides refuge from avian malaria ( Plasmodium relictum ), a primary driver of Hawaiian honeycreeper extinctions. However, recent declines in Hakalau’s birds at lower elevations could indicate that conditions have become suitable for disease vector Culex quinquefasciatus . We evaluated the statuses of Hakalau’s bird populations in the context of recent climatic changes using new survey data from point-transect distance sampling, producing abundance estimates from 1999 to 2024. We stratified our analysis across four elevation ranges (<1500 m, 1500–1700 m, 1700–1900 m, and >1900 m) and assessed trends for each species using state-space models (SSMs). We constrained population trajectories to be biologically realistic by incorporating population dynamic models within the SSMs. We observed highly species-specific abundance trends below 1500 m, predominantly stable to upward trends within 1500–1700 m, stable trends within 1700–1900 m, and upward trends above 1900 m. Declines in Hawaiʻi ʻamakihi ( Chlorodrepanis v. virens ) and endangered ʻakiapōlāʻau ( Hemignathus wilsoni ) abundance coincided with lengthening warm seasonal temperatures indicative of shrinking disease-free habitat below 1700 m. Above 1900 m, however, increases in nearly all species indicate that reforestation has likely restored disease-free habitat since 1999. While most species were stable to increasing overall, surveillance for mosquitoes and disease at lower elevations, documenting changes in habitat, and continuing bird population monitoring can help to gauge their long-term persistence at Hakalau.

Hawaii↗