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An initial abstraction and constant loss model, and methods for estimating unit hydrographs, peak streamflows, and flood volumes for urban basins in Missouri

Streamflow data, basin characteristics, and rainfall data from 39 streamflow-gaging stations for urban areas in and adjacent to Missouri were used by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Metropolitan Sewer District of St. Louis to develop an initial abstraction and constant loss model (a time-distributed basin-loss model) and a gamma unit hydrograph (GUH) for urban areas in Missouri. Study-specific methods to determine peak streamflow and flood volume for a given rainfall event also were developed. Distinct basin characteristics were evaluated and selected for use on the basis of their theoretical relation to flow, results from previous studies, and the ability to reliably measure the basin characteristic using digital datasets and geographic information system (GIS) technology. The key basin characteristics determined or computed for each of the 39 basins upstream from the streamflow-gaging stations were drainage area, percent impervious area, main-channel slope based on the 10- and 85-percent length method, percentage of the basin area in storage (lakes, ponds, reservoirs, wetlands), the composite Natural Resources Conservation Service curve number estimated from a combination of the soil type data and land-use characteristics, and the streamflow variability index developed for the recently completed study of low-flow regression in Missouri. Characteristics of spatial and temporal rainfall distribution came from the next generation weather radar (NEXRAD) network. Procedures were developed for this study to convert the variable radar sweep rate into a 5-minute total rainfall hyetograph using data from the radar bin at the centroid of a given basin. Additional characteristics determined for each storm on the basin included the 5-day and 14-day antecedent rainfall, estimated from the mean of daily rainfall values from various rain gages in the area. The database of observed rainfall and runoff events for the 39 basins upstream from the streamflow-gaging stations was analyzed to compute the optimal storm-specific initial abstraction and constant loss values, as well as the time to peak, peak streamflow, and shape factor values of the GUH. The optimal storm-specific values were used to develop a regional regression equation for initial abstraction; conversely, the constant loss was estimated not by regression but from either a generalized or specific regional mean value. The optimal storm-specific values of GUH time to peak, GUH peak streamflow, and GUH shape factor were used to develop regression equations for the GUH. The regression equations for the GUH initially were tested alone, and then were combined with the appropriate regional regression equation for initial abstraction and both the generalized regional and specific regional mean constant loss values. For the GUH regression equations, the interquartile range was substantially smaller than the range spanned by the minimum and maximum values, which indicates most of the errors have much smaller variation, and the minimum and maximum values may be extreme outliers. The central tendency of the regressed errors for peak streamflow and runoff hydrograph volume were both approximately zero, which implies a generally unbiased estimation of these values. The mean and median of the regressed errors for time to peak streamflow were both small but greater than zero, which implies the GUH regression equations create a hydrograph that has a peak that is later in time than observed. Specifically, the regressed times indicate an offset of about 10 minutes, on average, from observed. The mean and median of the regressed errors for widths of the runoff hydrograph at 50 and 75 percent were less than zero, which implies the GUH tends to slightly underestimate these widths compared to the observed. The appropriate regional initial abstraction regression equation was combined with both the generalized and the specific regional mean constant loss values and the GUH regression equations. Both the generalized regional mean constant loss and specific regional mean constant loss forms of the basin-loss model worked equally well to model the observed runoff hydrograph based on the error analysis, and neither model seems to make a consistently better approximation. Both initial abstraction and constant loss models combined with the GUH regression equations were further validated using several storms available after the start of the project in early 2011 with similar but consistently higher error results. If these methods are used in an urban area in Missouri other than those examined in this study, advice to the user is given to consider using the generalized regional mean values. If these methods are used in an urban area that is a subbasin of one of the basins in this study, advice to the user is given to consider using the specific regional mean values. The rainfall-runoff pairs from the storm-specific GUH analysis were further analyzed against various basin and rainfall characteristics to develop equations to estimate the peak streamflow and flood volume based on a quantity of rainfall on the basin.

Missouri↗

Geohydrology of Big Bear Valley, California: phase 1--geologic framework, recharge, and preliminary assessment of the source and age of groundwater

The Big Bear Valley, located in the San Bernardino Mountains of southern California, has increased in population in recent years. Most of the water supply for the area is pumped from the alluvial deposits that form the Big Bear Valley groundwater basin. This study was conducted to better understand the thickness and structure of the groundwater basin in order to estimate the quantity and distribution of natural recharge to Big Bear Valley. A gravity survey was used to estimate the thickness of the alluvial deposits that form the Big Bear Valley groundwater basin. This determined that the alluvial deposits reach a maximum thickness of 1,500 to 2,000 feet beneath the center of Big Bear Lake and the area between Big Bear and Baldwin Lakes, and decrease to less than 500 feet thick beneath the eastern end of Big Bear Lake. Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) was used to measure pumping-induced land subsidence and to locate structures, such as faults, that could affect groundwater movement. The measurements indicated small amounts of land deformation (uplift and subsidence) in the area between Big Bear Lake and Baldwin Lake, the area near the city of Big Bear Lake, and the area near Sugarloaf, California. Both the gravity and InSAR measurements indicated the possible presence of subsurface faults in subbasins between Big Bear and Baldwin Lakes, but additional data are required for confirmation. The distribution and quantity of groundwater recharge in the area were evaluated by using a regional water-balance model (Basin Characterization Model, or BCM) and a daily rainfall-runoff model (INFILv3). The BCM calculated spatially distributed potential recharge in the study area of approximately 12,700 acre-feet per year (acre-ft/yr) of potential in-place recharge and 30,800 acre-ft/yr of potential runoff. Using the assumption that only 10 percent of the runoff becomes recharge, this approach indicated there is approximately 15,800 acre-ft/yr of total recharge in Big Bear Valley. The INFILv3 model was modified for this study to include a perched zone beneath the root zone to better simulate lateral seepage and recharge in the shallow subsurface in mountainous terrain. The climate input used in the INFILv3 model was developed by using daily climate data from 84 National Climatic Data Center stations and published Parameter Regression on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) average monthly precipitation maps to match the drier average monthly precipitation measured in the Baldwin Lake drainage basin. This model resulted in a good representation of localized rain-shadow effects and calibrated well to measured lake volumes at Big Bear and Baldwin Lakes. The simulated average annual recharge was about 5,480 acre-ft/yr in the Big Bear study area, with about 2,800 acre-ft/yr in the Big Bear Lake surface-water drainage basin and about 2,680 acre-ft/yr in the Baldwin Lake surface-water drainage basin. One spring and eight wells were sampled and analyzed for chemical and isotopic data in 2005 and 2006 to determine if isotopic techniques could be used to assess the sources and ages of groundwater in the Big Bear Valley. This approach showed that the predominant source of recharge to the Big Bear Valley is winter precipitation falling on the surrounding mountains. The tritium and uncorrected carbon-14 ages of samples collected from wells for this study indicated that the groundwater basin contains water of different ages, ranging from modern to about 17,200-years old.The results of these investigations provide an understanding of the lateral and vertical extent of the groundwater basin, the spatial distribution of groundwater recharge, the processes responsible for the recharge, and the source and age of groundwater in the groundwater basin. Although the studies do not provide an understanding of the detailed water-bearing properties necessary to determine the groundwater availability of the basin, they do provide a framework for the future development of a groundwater model that would help to improve the understanding of the potential hydrologic effects of water-management alternatives in Big Bear Valley.

California↗

Application of dimensionless sediment rating curves to predict suspended-sediment concentrations, bedload, and annual sediment loads for rivers in Minnesota

Consistent and reliable sediment data are needed by Federal, State, and local government agencies responsible for monitoring water quality, planning river restoration, quantifying sediment budgets, and evaluating the effectiveness of sediment reduction strategies. Heightened concerns about excessive sediment in rivers and the challenge to reduce costs and eliminate data gaps has guided Federal and State interests in pursuing alternative methods for measuring suspended and bedload sediment. Simple and dependable data collection and estimation techniques are needed to generate hydraulic and water-quality information for areas where data are unavailable or difficult to collect. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency and the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, completed a study to evaluate the use of dimensionless sediment rating curves (DSRCs) to accurately predict suspended-sediment concentrations (SSCs), bedload, and annual sediment loads for selected rivers and streams in Minnesota based on data collected during 2007 through 2013. This study included the application of DSRC models developed for a small group of streams located in the San Juan River Basin near Pagosa Springs in southwestern Colorado to rivers in Minnesota. Regionally based DSRC models for Minnesota also were developed and compared to DSRC models from Pagosa Springs, Colorado, to evaluate which model provided more accurate predictions of SSCs and bedload in Minnesota. Multiple measures of goodness-of-fit were developed to assess the effectiveness of DSRC models in predicting SSC and bedload for rivers in Minnesota. More than 600 dimensionless ratio values of SSC, bedload, and streamflow were evaluated and delineated according to Pfankuch stream stability categories of “good/fair” and “poor” to develop four Minnesota-based DSRC models. The basis for Pagosa Springs and Minnesota DSRC model effectiveness was founded on measures of goodness-of-fit that included proximity of the model(s) fitted line to the 95-percent confidence intervals of the site-specific model, Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency values, model biases, and deviation of annual sediment loads from each model to the annual sediment loads calculated from measured data. Composite plots comparing Pagosa Springs DSRCs, Minnesota DSRCs, site-specific regression models, and measured data indicated that regionally developed DSRCs (Minnesota DSRC models) more closely approximated measured data for nearly every site. Pagosa Springs DSRC models had markedly larger exponents (slopes) when compared to the Minnesota DSRC models and the site-specific regression models, and over-represent SSC and bedload at streamflows exceeding bankfull. The Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency values for the Minnesota DSRC model for suspended-sediment concentrations closely matched Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency values of the site-specific regression models for 12 out of 16 sites. Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency values associated with Minnesota DSRCs were greater than those associated with Pagosa Springs DSRCs for every site except the Whitewater River near Beaver, Minnesota site. Pagosa Springs DSRC models were less accurate than the mean of the measured data at predicting SSC values for one-half of the sites for good/fair stability sites and one-half of the sites for poor stability sites. Relative model biases were calculated and determined to be substantial (greater than 5 percent) for Pagosa Springs and Minnesota models, with Minnesota models having a lower mean model bias. For predicted annual suspended-sediment loads (SSL), the Minnesota DSRC models for good/fair and poor stream stability sites more closely approximated the annual SSLs calculated from the measured data as compared to the Pagosa Springs DSRC model. Results of data analyses indicate that DSRC models developed using data collected in Minnesota were more effective at compensating for differences in individual stream characteristics across a variety of basin sizes and flow regimes than DSRC models developed using data collected for Pagosa Springs, Colorado. Minnesota DSRC models retained a substantial portion of the unique sediment signatures for most rivers, although deviations were observed for streams with limited sediment supply and for rivers in southeastern Minnesota, which had markedly larger regression exponents. Compared to Pagosa Springs DSRC models, Minnesota DSRC models had regression slopes that more closely matched the slopes of site-specific regression models, had greater Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency values, had lower model biases, and approximated measured annual sediment loads more closely. The results presented in this report indicate that regionally based DSRCs can be used to estimate reasonably accurate values of SSC and bedload. Practitioners are cautioned that DSRC reliability is dependent on representative measures of bankfull streamflow, SSC, and bedload. It is, therefore, important that samples of SSC and bedload, which will be used for estimating SSC and bedload at the bankfull streamflow, are collected over a range of conditions that includes the ascending and descending limbs of the event hydrograph. The use of DSRC models may have substantial limitations for certain conditions. For example, DSRC models should not be used to predict SSC and sediment loads for extreme streamflows, such as those that exceed twice the bankfull streamflow value because this constitutes conditions beyond the realm of current (2016) empirical modeling capability. Also, if relations between SSC and streamflow and between bedload and streamflow are not statistically significant, DSRC models should not be used to predict SSC or bedload, as this could result in large errors. For streams that do not violate these conditions, DSRC estimates of SSC and bedload can be used for stream restoration planning and design, and for estimating annual sediment loads for streams where little or no sediment data are available.

Minnesota↗

Water Levels and Selected Water-Quality Conditions in the Sparta-Memphis Aquifer (Middle Claiborne Aquifer) in Arkansas, Spring-Summer 2007

The U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Arkansas Natural Resources Commission and the Arkansas Geological Survey has monitored water levels in the Sparta Sand of Claiborne Group and Memphis Sand of Claiborne Group (herein referred to as the Sparta Sand and the Memphis Sand, respectively), since the 1920s. Groundwater withdrawals have increased while water levels have declined since monitoring was initiated. Herein, aquifers in the Sparta Sand and Memphis Sand will be referred to as the Sparta-Memphis aquifer throughout Arkansas. During the spring of 2007, 309 water levels were measured in wells completed in the Sparta-Memphis aquifer. During the summer of 2007, 129 water-quality samples were collected and measured for temperature and specific conductance and 102 were collected and analyzed for chloride from wells completed in the Sparta-Memphis aquifer. Water-level measurements collected in wells screened in the Sparta-Memphis aquifer were used to produce a regional potentiometric-surface map. The regional direction of groundwater flow in the Sparta-Memphis aquifer is generally to the south-southeast in the northern half of Arkansas and to the east and south in the southern half of Arkansas, away from the outcrop area except where affected by large ground-water withdrawals. The highest water-level altitude measured in the Sparta-Memphis aquifer was 326 feet above National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929, located in Grant County in the outcrop at the western boundary of the study area; the lowest water-level altitude was 161 feet below National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929 in Union County near the southern boundary of the study area. Eight cones of depression (generally represented by closed contours) are located in the following counties: Bradley, Drew, and Ashley; Calhoun; Cleveland; Columbia; Crittenden; Arkansas, Jefferson, and Lincoln; Cross and Poinsett; and Union. Two large depressions are shown on the 2007 potentiometric-surface map, centered in Jefferson and Union Counties, as a result of large withdrawals for industrial and public supplies. The depression centered in Jefferson County deepened and expanded in recent years into Arkansas and Prairie Counties as a result of large withdrawals for irrigation and public supply. The area enclosed within the 40-foot contour has expanded on the 2007 potentiometric-surface map when compared with the 2005 potentiometric-surface map. In 2003, the depression in Union County was elongated east and west and beginning to coalesce with the depression in Columbia County. The deepest measurement during 2007 in the center of the depression in Union County has risen 38 feet since 2003. The area enclosed by the deepest contour, 160 feet below National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929, on the 2007 potentiometric-surface map is less than 10 percent of the area on the 2005 potentiometric-surface map. A broad depression in western Poinsett and Cross Counties was first shown in the 1995 potentiometric-surface map caused by withdrawals for irrigation extending north to the Poinsett-Craighead County line, and south into Cross County. A water-level difference map was constructed using the difference between water-level measurements made during 2003 and 2007 from 283 wells. The difference in water level between 2003 and 2007 ranged from -49.8 to 60.0 feet. Areas with a general rise in water levels are shown in northern Arkansas, Columbia, southern Jefferson, and most of Union Counties. In the area around west-central Union County, water levels rose as much as 60.0 feet with water levels in 15 wells rising 20 feet or more, which is an average annual rise of 5 feet or more. Water levels generally declined throughout most of the rest of Arkansas. Hydrographs from 157 wells were constructed with a minimum of 25 years of water-level measurements. During the period 1983-2007, the county mean annual water level rose in Calhoun, Columbia, Hot Spring, and Lafayette Counties. Mean an

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Bathymetric contour maps, surface area and capacity tables, and bathymetric change maps for selected water-supply lakes in north-central and west-central Missouri, 2020

Bathymetric data were collected at 10 water-supply lakes in north-central and west-central Missouri by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Missouri Department of Natural Resources and in collaboration with various local agencies, as part of a multiyear effort to establish or update the surface area and capacity tables for the surveyed lakes. The lakes were surveyed in June and July 2020. Seven of the lakes had been surveyed by the USGS between 2002 and 2007, and the recent surveys were compared to the earlier surveys to document changes in the bathymetric surface and capacity of the lake and produce a bathymetric change map. Bathymetric data were collected using a high-resolution multibeam mapping system mounted on a boat. Supplemental depth data at two of the lakes were collected in shallow areas with an acoustic Doppler current profiler on a remote-controlled boat. Data points from the various sources were exported at a gridded data resolution appropriate to each lake, either 0.82 foot or 1.64 feet. Data outside the multibeam survey extent and greater than the surveyed water-surface elevation generally were obtained from data collected using aerial light detection and ranging (lidar) point cloud data, except at Holden City Lake. A linear enforcement technique was used to add points to the dataset in areas of sparse data (the upper ends of coves where the water was shallow or aquatic vegetation precluded data acquisition) based on surrounding multibeam and upland data values. The various point datasets were used to produce a three-dimensional triangulated irregular network surface of lake-bottom elevations for each lake. A surface area and capacity table was produced from the three-dimensional surface for each lake showing surface area and capacity at specified lake water-surface elevations. Various quality-assurance tests were conducted to ensure quality data were collected with the multibeam, including beam angle checks and patch tests. Additional quality-assurance tests were conducted on the gridded bathymetric data from the survey, the bathymetric surface created from the gridded data, and the contours created from the bathymetric survey. If data from a previous bathymetric survey existed at a given lake, a bathymetric change map was generated from the elevation difference between the previous survey and the 2020 bathymetric survey data points. After reconciling any vertical datum disagreement between the previous survey and the 2020 survey, coincident points between the surveys were identified, and a bathymetric change map was generated using the coincident point data. A decrease in capacity was observed at nearly all the lakes for which a previous survey existed, and the mean bathymetric change between the surveys was positive at all the lakes. The decrease in capacity at the primary spillway elevation ranged from –0.4 percent at Edwin A Pape Lake to 9.4 percent at upper Higginsville Reservoir. The mean bathymetric change ranged from 0.03 foot at Garden City New Lake to 1.75 feet at Harrisonville City Lake, which corresponds to a time-averaged mean bathymetric change ranging from 0.002 foot per year at Garden City New Lake to 0.132 foot per year at Harrisonville City Lake. The computed volumetric sedimentation rate generally ranged from 0.04 to 4.91 acre-feet per year at Garden City New Lake and Holden City Lake, respectively; however, Harrisonville City Lake had a substantially larger volumetric sedimentation rate of 42.7 acre-feet per year, corresponding to the substantial mean bathymetric change of 1.75 feet and combined with the relatively shorter interval between surveys. Harrisonville City Lake also had the second-largest decrease in capacity at the spillway elevation of 5.9 percent. As with the 2019 surveys, some changes observed in the bathymetric change maps likely result from the difference in data collection equipment and techniques between the surveys. Certain apparent erosional features around the perimeter of certain lakes may be the result of wave action or compaction of sediments exposed to air during low-water years, or may indicate an unidentified but systemic error in the older singlebeam echosounder survey data.

Missouri↗

Water quality, hydrology, and simulated response to changes in phosphorus loading of Mercer Lake, Iron County, Wisconsin, with special emphasis on the effects of wastewater discharges

Mercer Lake is a relatively shallow drainage lake in north-central Wisconsin. The area near the lake has gone through many changes over the past century, including urbanization and industrial development. To try to improve the water quality of the lake, actions have been taken, such as removal of the lumber mill and diversion of all effluent from the sewage treatment plant away from the lake; however, it is uncertain how these actions have affected water quality. Mercer Lake area residents and authorities would like to continue to try to improve the water quality of the lake; however, they would like to place their efforts in the actions that will have the most beneficial effects. To provide a better understanding of the factors affecting the water quality of Mercer Lake, a detailed study of the lake and its watershed was conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in collaboration with the Mercer Lake Association. The purposes of the study were to describe the water quality of the lake and the composition of its sediments; quantify the sources of water and phosphorus loading to the lake, including sources associated with wastewater discharges; and evaluate the effects of past and future changes in phosphorus inputs on the water quality of the lake using eutrophication models (models that simulate changes in phosphorus and algae concentrations and water clarity in the lake). Based on analyses of sediment cores and monitoring data collected from the lake, the water quality of Mercer Lake appears to have degraded as a result of the activities in its watershed over the past 100 years. The water quality appears to have improved, however, since a sewage treatment plant was constructed in 1965 and its effluent was routed away from the lake in 1995. Since 2000, when a more consistent monitoring program began, the water quality of the lake appears to have changed very little. During the two monitoring years (MY) 2008-09, the average summer near-surface concentration of total phosphorus was 0.023 mg/L, indicating the lake is borderline mesotrophic-eutrophic, or has moderate to high concentrations of phosphorus, whereas the average summer chlorophyll a concentration was 3.3 mg/L and water clarity, as measured with a Secchi depth, was 10.4 ft, both indicating mesotrophic conditions or that the lake has a moderate amount of algae and water clarity. Although actions have been taken to eliminate the wastewater discharges, the bottom sediment still has slightly elevated concentrations of several pollutants from wastewater discharges, lumber operations, and roadway drainage, and a few naturally occurring metals (such as iron). None of the concentrations, however, were high enough above the defined thresholds to be of concern. Based on nitrogen to phosphorus ratios, the productivity (algal growth) in Mercer Lake should typically be limited by phosphorus; therefore, understanding the phosphorus input to the lake is important when management efforts to improve or prevent degradation of the lake water quality are considered. Total inputs of phosphorus to Mercer Lake were directly estimated for MY 2008-09 at about 340 lb/yr and for a recent year with more typical hydrology at about 475 lb/yr. During these years, the largest sources of phosphorus were from Little Turtle Inlet, which contributed about 45 percent, and the drainage area near the lake containing the adjacent urban and residential developments, which contributed about 24 percent. Prior to 1965, when there was no sewage treatment plant and septic systems and other untreated systems contributed nutrients to the watershed, phosphorus loadings were estimated to be about 71 percent higher than during around 2009. In 1965, a sewage treatment plant was built, but its effluent was released in the downstream end of the lake. Depending on various assumptions on how much effluent was retained in the lake, phosphorus inputs from wastewater may have ranged from 0 to 342 lb. Future highway and stormwater improvements have been identified in the Mercer Infrastructure Improvement Project, and if they are done with the proposed best management practices, then phosphorus inputs to the lake may decrease by about 40 lb. Eutrophication models [Canfield and Bachman model (1981) and Carlson Trophic State Index equations (1977)] were used to predict how the water quality of Mercer Lake should respond to changes in phosphorus loading. A relatively linear response was found between phosphorus loading and phosphorus and chlorophyll a concentrations in the lake, with changes in phosphorus concentrations being slightly less (about 80 percent) and changes in chlorophyll a concentrations being slightly more (about 120 percent) than the changes in phosphorus loadings to the lake. Water clarity, indicated by Secchi depths, responded more to decreases in phosphorus loading than to increases in loading. Results from the eutrophication models indicated that the lake should have been negatively affected by the wastewater discharges. Prior to 1965, when there was no sewage treatment plant effluent and inputs from the septic systems and other untreated systems were thought to be high, the lake should have been eutrophic; near the surface, average phosphorus concentrations were almost 0.035 mg/L, chlorophyll a concentrations were about 7 μg/L, and Secchi depths were about 6 ft, which agreed with the shallower Secchi depths during this time estimated from the sediment-core analysis. The models indicated that between 1965 and 1995, when the lake retained some of the effluent from the new sewage treatment plant, water quality should have been between the conditions estimated prior to 1965 and what was expected during typical hydrologic conditions around MY 2008-09. The models also indicated that if the future Mercer Infrastructure Improvement Project is conducted with the best management practices as proposed, the water quality in the lake could improve slightly from that measured during 2006-10. Because of the small amount of phosphorus that is presently input into Mercer Lake any additional phosphorus added to the lake could degrade water quality; therefore, management actions can usefully focus on minimizing future phosphorus inputs. Phosphorus released from the sediments of a degraded lake often delays its response to decreases in external phosphorus loading, especially in shallow, frequently mixed systems. Mercer Lake, however, remains stratified throughout most of the summer, and phosphorus released from the sediments represents only about 6 percent, or a small fraction, of the total phosphorus load to the lake. Therefore, the phosphorus trapped in the sediments should minimally affect the long-term water quality of the lake and should not delay the response in its productivity to future changes in nutrient loading from its watershed.

Wisconsin↗

Bathymetric contour maps, surface area and capacity tables, and bathymetric change maps for selected water-supply lakes in northwestern Missouri, 2019 and 2020

Bathymetric data were collected at 12 water-supply lakes in northwestern Missouri by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Missouri Department of Natural Resources and in collaboration with various local agencies, as part of a multiyear effort to establish or update the surface area and capacity tables for the surveyed lakes. Ten of the lakes were surveyed from July to September 2019, one of the original 10 was resurveyed in March 2020, and two lakes of high interest near Maryville were surveyed in June 2020. Six of the lakes had been surveyed by the U.S. Geological Survey before, and the recent surveys were compared to the earlier surveys to document the changes in the bathymetric surface and capacity of the lake and to produce a bathymetric change map. Bathymetric data were collected using a high-resolution multibeam mapping system mounted on a boat. Supplemental depth data were collected in shallow areas with an acoustic Doppler current profiler on a remote-controlled boat. At Hamilton Reservoir, a Global Navigation Satellite System survey receiver was used to collect additional bathymetric data at several points across four transects and around the perimeter of a substantial shallow area filled with aquatic vegetation upstream from a low-clearance bridge on the northern arm. Data points from the various sources were exported at a gridded data resolution appropriate to each lake. Data outside the multibeam echosounder survey extent and greater than the surveyed water-surface elevation generally were obtained from data collected using aerial light detection and ranging point cloud data, 1/9 arc-second National Elevation Dataset data based on aerial light detection and ranging data, or both. A linear enforcement technique was used to add points to the dataset in areas of sparse data (the upper ends of coves where the water was shallow or aquatic vegetation precluded data acquisition) based on surrounding multibeam and upland data values. The various point datasets were used to produce a three-dimensional triangulated irregular network surface of the lake-bottom elevations for each lake. A surface area and capacity table was produced from the three-dimensional surface showing surface area and capacity at specified lake water-surface elevations. Various quality-assurance tests were conducted to ensure quality data were collected with the multibeam, including beam angle checks and patch tests. Additional quality-assurance tests were conducted on the gridded bathymetric data from the survey, the bathymetric surface created from the gridded data, and the contours created from the bathymetric survey. If data from a previous bathymetric survey existed at a given lake, a bathymetric change map was generated from the elevation difference between the previous survey and the 2019 bathymetric survey data points. After applying any vertical elevation changes to the previous survey data to ensure a match to the 2019 survey datum, coincident points between the surveys were found, and a bathymetric change map was generated using the coincident point data. A decrease in capacity was observed at all the lakes for which a previous survey existed. The decrease in capacity at the primary spillway or intake elevation ranged from 0.8 percent at Lake Viking to 21.4 percent at Middle Fork Grand River Reservoir. The mean bathymetric change ranged from 0.33 foot at Willow Brook Lake to 1.18 feet at Middle Fork Grand River Reservoir. The computed sedimentation rate generally ranged from 0.54 to 4.19 acre-feet per year at Maysville Lake and Middle Fork Grand River Reservoir, respectively; however, Lake Viking had the largest sedimentation rate of 14.9 acre-feet per year, despite having the smallest decrease in capacity at the spillway elevation of only 0.8 percent and a mean bathymetric change of only 0.4 foot. Evidence of dredging was observed in the bathymetric surface for Lake Viking. Some changes observed in some bathymetric change maps are hypothesized to result from the difference in data collection equipment and techniques between the previous and present bathymetric surveys. Certain erosional features around the perimeter of certain lakes may be the result of wave action during low-water years.

Missouri↗

General water-quality conditions, long-term trends, and network analysis at selected sites within the Ambient Water-Quality Monitoring Network in Missouri, water years 1993–2017

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Missouri Department of Natural Resources, collects data pertaining to the surface-water resources of Missouri. Established in 1964, the Ambient Water-Quality Monitoring Network (AWQMN) consisted of 69 sites in 2017. Two additional sites from the National Water-Quality Program are included with the AWQMN sites for the analyses in this report. The sites are sampled typically from 2 to 12 times per year for physical properties, total suspended solids, nutrients, fecal indicator bacteria, and trace elements. The period of analysis for this study was from 1993 through 2017 and data analysis included 71 sites and 15 water-quality constituents plus discharge. Data analysis involved retrieving the data, conditioning the data for analysis, analyzing the data for trends, and analyzing the monitoring network to determine if potential data gaps or data redundancies exist in the network. Results from these analyses can be used to help manage the monitoring network into the future. Water-quality data were analyzed using several software packages to provide graphical and statistical information for interpretation of trends in the data at selected sites. Discharge data at selected sites were analyzed to determine the general trends during the analysis period and how the water-quality samples represented the range of daily mean discharges at each site. Water-quality data also were analyzed at selected sites to determine the relative sensitivity of selected sites and constituents to changes in data collection frequency. Trend analysis at selected sites using a simulated reduction in sampling frequency was completed to compare to trends obtained using monthly data to determine the potential degradation in the ability of determining trends from a reduced sampling frequency. The viability of using estimated discharge to evaluate long-term trends for sites with no continuous discharge was investigated. Data from sites were statistically compared in groups to determine the relative similarity (or difference) between sites for each water-quality constituent to identify potentially redundant sites in the monitoring network. Discharge-weighted long-term trends during 1993 through 2017 were analyzed for 15 water-quality constituents at 58 sites and results indicated there were significant single- or two-period trends in about 17 percent of the analyses. Some trends indicated improvement and some trends indicated deterioration of the general water quality at some sites in the AWQMN. No trend was indicated in about 31 percent of the analyses. The constituents pH, specific conductance, and total phosphorus showed the most frequent significant trends, and each of the 15 constituents examined had a significant trend at one or more sites. A total of 42 sites indicated at least 1 constituent with a significant single- or two-period trend, and 10 sites indicated 6 or more significant trends. Potential data gaps identified for computing discharge-weighted long-term trends in the monitoring network included the lack of collection of continuous discharge at 23 sites, insufficient sampling frequency for some constituents (dissolved chloride and total and dissolved lead and zinc) at some sites, insufficient temporal sample distribution (lack of at least one sample in each season per year) at some sites, and insufficient sampling frequency for some highly censored constituents (nutrients and total and dissolved lead and zinc) at some sites. Potential data gaps based on site spatial distribution were identified in 7 basins greater than 800 square miles. Potential site redundancies were identified in 4 basins that had an area greater than 500 square miles with a site density greater than 2 sites per 1,000 square miles. Potential site redundancies also were identified for nine site pairs by observing statistical similarities in the constituent data distributions. Sampling frequency was investigated to determine if reducing the sampling frequency of select constituents could provide a statistically similar data distribution. At 28 of 71 sites, 11 constituents had sufficient data collection frequency (approximately monthly) to allow for the creation of simulated datasets of various reduced data collection frequency. For the selected monitoring network sites analyzed, the data distribution of a simulated sampling frequency of four times per year or greater, roughly evenly distributed over the year, was not significantly different than the data distribution of the original monthly sampling frequency. Sites analyzed using varying simulated sampling frequencies tended to be more sensitive to sampling frequency changes if they were in basins classified as large or very large size and tended to be least sensitive in basins classified as small and medium size in the Ozark Plateaus Province. Simulated reduced frequency sampling analysis indicated that the constituents and measurements most sensitive to changes in sampling frequencies were water temperature, dissolved oxygen, discharge, and dissolved nitrate, and least sensitive were pH, total suspended solids, dissolved phosphorus, and total phosphorus. Discharge-weighted long-term trend analysis was repeated at 22 sites for 11 constituents using a simulated quarterly sampling frequency, and matched about 46 percent of the significant single-period trends identified using monthly data and about 65 percent of the analyses that indicated no trend using the monthly data.

Missouri↗

Applying radar technology to migratory bird conservation and management: Strengthening and expanding a collaborative

Executive Summary Understanding the factors affecting migratory bird and bat populations during all three phases of their life cycle—breeding, nonbreeding, and migration—is critical to species conservation planning. This includes the need for information about these species’ responses to natural challenges, as well as information about the effects of human activities and structures. Habitats and other resources critical to migrants during passage and stopover are being destroyed, degraded, and threatened by human activities. Birds and bats are also uniquely susceptible to human use of the airspace. Wind turbines, communication and power transmission towers, and other tall structures, known to cause bird and bat mortality, are being erected or proposed in increasing numbers across the country. In addition, the potential for bird/aircraft collisions poses human safety threats. Management and regulatory agencies, conservation organizations, and industry currently lack the information they need to meet their missions and statutory responsibilities. The biological data available from various radar technologies offer a unique opportunity to learn more about the spatiotemporal distribution patterns, flight characteristics, and habitat use of “aero-fauna.” Recognizing the opportunities presented by radar technologies, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), and university partners collaborated first on individual projects and then in a broader, informal “collaborative” to coordinate their radar-related research and work together to develop the suite of products needed for conservation of birds and bats. Having produced two summary documents (Sojda and others, 2005; Ruth and others, 2005), the next objective was to convene a workshop for researchers, management and regulatory agencies, and other interested parties. The focus of this initial workshop was on strengthening the existing USGS-USFWS-university partnership and expanding the “collaborative” to include new Federal agency partners. The subject matter was centered on discussing available technologies, appropriate applications, management-related needs, and ways to strengthen collaborative research and conservation efforts. The workshop opened with presentations about the history of the “radar collaborative,” a description of the workshop objectives and focuses, and a summary of resource management and regulatory needs. Scientific presentations describing current research projects or subjects followed, given by USGS scientists, as well as scientists from other Federal agencies, academia, conservation and ornithological organizations, and a private contracting firm. Presenters addressed a wide variety of management issues including siting of wind-power facilities, bird/aircraft collisions, effects of hurricanes Katrina and Rita on bird migration, bird use of Conservation Reserve Program land, defining bird migration patterns at a broad regional scale, and associating migrant birds with their stopover habitats. Presentations described a variety of radar technologies including NEXRAD weather surveillance radar, modified mobile marine radar, military tracking radar, pencil beam radar, and dual polarization radar, as well as complementary techniques and analysis methods such as acoustic monitoring, thermal imaging, artificial intelligence, and individual-based modeling. Key issues, themes, and questions identified during the open discussions that followed fell into five main categories: (1) agency needs and challenges; (2) radar technology and applications—technical questions and issues; (3) tools and resources for managers and researchers; (4) standardization of protocols; and (5) collaborative opportunities. Participants identified the following management, regulatory, or business issues facing them which may be addressed with radar technologies: tall structures; wind turbines; identification and protection of key habitats; assessment of management activities; and bird/aircraft strikes. Participants frequently expressed the need for specific information about which radar technologies are best used for answering particular questions. User groups emphasized the importance of clear, defensible scientific information on which they can base their activities. In turn, researchers emphasized their need for clearly defined, specific questions from managers so that they can design and conduct the required research. Discussions about technical issues requiring further research and collaboration included target identity, ground-truthing, linking migrants to habitat, and standardized protocols for applied research. Workshop participants identified and endorsed a series of seven action items that would promote collaboration and begin to address key issues identified at the workshop: Action Item #1 : Establish a working subgroup to address large-scale surveillance radar standardization issues. Action Item #2 : Establish a working subgroup to address small-scale radar standardization issues. Action Item #3 : Bring management and regulatory agencies together to identify the three most important information needs for each key management issue relating to radar technologies. Action Item #4 : Develop Fact Sheet(s) to provide information about radar technology applications to migratory bird and bat conservation issues. Action Item #5 : Create a “radar collaborative” Website to provide information about radar biology applications, contacts, publications, and so forth. Action Item #6 : Formalize and expand the USGS-USFWS “radar collaborative.” Action Item #7 : Advance basic research, such as target identity and validation, which will support and improve our abilities to apply radar technologies to conservation objectives. There was considerable interest in expanding the “radar collaborative” to include those agencies, organizations, and industries represented at the workshop. It was felt that the publication of the workshop proceedings, implementation of action items, and additional future meetings or workshops will be crucial in strengthening the “radar collaborative” effort and promoting the use of these valuable technologies for conserving migratory species.

Open-File Report↗

Simulation of groundwater flow and analysis of the effects of water-management options in the North Platte Natural Resources District, Nebraska

The North Platte Natural Resources District (NPNRD) has been actively collecting data and studying groundwater resources because of concerns about the future availability of the highly inter-connected surface-water and groundwater resources. This report, prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the North Platte Natural Resources District, describes a groundwater-flow model of the North Platte River valley from Bridgeport, Nebraska, extending west to 6 miles into Wyoming. The model was built to improve the understanding of the interaction of surface-water and groundwater resources, and as an optimization tool, the model is able to analyze the effects of water-management options on the simulated stream base flow of the North Platte River. The groundwater system and related sources and sinks of water were simulated using a newton formulation of the U.S. Geological Survey modular three-dimensional groundwater model, referred to as MODFLOW–NWT, which provided an improved ability to solve nonlinear unconfined aquifer simulations with wetting and drying of cells. Using previously published aquifer-base-altitude contours in conjunction with newer test-hole and geophysical data, a new base-of-aquifer altitude map was generated because of the strong effect of the aquifer-base topography on groundwater-flow direction and magnitude. The largest inflow to groundwater is recharge originating from water leaking from canals, which is much larger than recharge originating from infiltration of precipitation. The largest component of groundwater discharge from the study area is to the North Platte River and its tributaries, with smaller amounts of discharge to evapotranspiration and groundwater withdrawals for irrigation. Recharge from infiltration of precipitation was estimated with a daily soil-water-balance model. Annual recharge from canal seepage was estimated using available records from the Bureau of Reclamation and then modified with canal-seepage potentials estimated using geophysical data. Groundwater withdrawals were estimated using land-cover data, precipitation data, and published crop water-use data. For fields irrigated with surface water and groundwater, surface-water deliveries were subtracted from the estimated net irrigation requirement, and groundwater withdrawal was assumed to be equal to any demand unmet by surface water. The groundwater-flow model was calibrated to measured groundwater levels and stream base flows estimated using the base-flow index method. The model was calibrated through automated adjustments using statistical techniques through parameter estimation using the parameter estimation suite of software (PEST). PEST was used to adjust 273 parameters, grouped as hydraulic conductivity of the aquifer, spatial multipliers to recharge, temporal multipliers to recharge, and two specific recharge parameters. Base flow of the North Platte River at Bridgeport, Nebraska, streamgage near the eastern, downstream end of the model was one of the primary calibration targets. Simulated base flow reasonably matched estimated base flow for this streamgage during 1950–2008, with an average difference of 15 percent. Overall, 1950–2008 simulated base flow followed the trend of the estimated base flow reasonably well, in cases with generally increasing or decreasing base flow from the start of the simulation to the end. Simulated base flow also matched estimated base flow reasonably well for most of the North Platte River tributaries with estimated base flow. Average simulated groundwater budgets during 1989–2008 were nearly three times larger for irrigation seasons than for non-irrigation seasons. The calibrated groundwater-flow model was used with the Groundwater-Management Process for the 2005 version of the U.S. Geological Survey modular three-dimensional groundwater model, MODFLOW–2005, to provide a tool for the NPNRD to better understand how water-management decisions could affect stream base flows of the North Platte River at Bridgeport, Nebr., streamgage in a future period from 2008 to 2019 under varying climatic conditions. The simulation-optimization model was constructed to analyze the maximum increase in simulated stream base flow that could be obtained with the minimum amount of reductions in groundwater withdrawals for irrigation. A second analysis extended the first to analyze the simulated base-flow benefit of groundwater withdrawals along with application of intentional recharge, that is, water from canals being released into rangeland areas with sandy soils. With optimized groundwater withdrawals and intentional recharge, the maximum simulated stream base flow was 15–23 cubic feet per second (ft 3 /s) greater than with no management at all, or 10–15 ft 3 /s larger than with managed groundwater withdrawals only. These results indicate not only the amount that simulated stream base flow can be increased by these management options, but also the locations where the management options provide the most or least benefit to the simulated stream base flow. For the analyses in this report, simulated base flow was best optimized by reductions in groundwater withdrawals north of the North Platte River and in the western half of the area. Intentional recharge sites selected by the optimization had a complex distribution but were more likely to be closer to the North Platte River or its tributaries. Future users of the simulation-optimization model will be able to modify the input files as to type, location, and timing of constraints, decision variables of groundwater withdrawals by zone, and other variables to explore other feasible management scenarios that may yield different increases in simulated future base flow of the North Platte River.

Nebraska↗

Benthic habitats and offshore geological resources of Kaloko-Honokohau National Historical Park, Hawai‘i

Kaloko-Honokōhau National Historical Park (KAHO) is one of three National Park lands located along the western coast of the Island of Hawai‘i and the only one to include submerged lands and marine resources within its official boundaries. The park was established in 1978 and is 1,160 acres in size, including 596 acres of marine area. The submerged lands are currently managed by the State of Hawaii, Department of Land and Natural Resources, Division of Aquatic Resources (DLNR-DAR). Marine resources located within KAHO include coral reef and habitat for many marine animals, including the green sea turtle and a variety of fish and invertebrates. In addition, many archeological, cultural, and recreational resources are located within the marine realm of the park. Potential threats and stressors to the modern marine environment include ground-water and surface-water contamination, invasive plants and algae, fishing pressure and use of monofilament gill nets (which can ensnare marine life or become tangled on reefs and be left behind as fishing debris), and visitor use impacts, such as scuba diving and snorkeling. Illegal dumping, oil releases, boat groundings, and other physical damage to reef resources are potential threats from users of the nearby harbor. Special issues of concern for the park include establishing baseline conditions of the offshore resources before the development of adjacent coastal lands. Until this study, only a general knowledge of the distribution of benthic habitats and the characteristics of the offshore region of Kaloko-Honokōhau National Historical Park was available. In 2003, a collaborative project between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Coastal and Marine Geology Program and the National Park Service (NPS) was initiated to develop detailed benthic-habitat classification maps for the marine lands within and adjacent to the park. The intent of this project is to provide baseline maps and a Geographic Information System (GIS) database and description of the biological and geological resources of these marine lands in order to facilitate the management, interpretation, and understanding of park resources. A benthic-habitat classification map was created for the park using existing color aerial photography, Scanning Hydrographic Operational Airborne Lidar Survey (SHOALS) bathymetric data, georeferenced underwater video, and still photography. Individual habitat polygons were classified using five basic attributes: (1) major structure or substrate, (2) dominant structure, (3) major biologic cover on the substrate, (4) percentage of major biological cover, and (5) geographic zone. Additional information regarding geology, morphology, and coral species were also noted. Marine resources located within KAHO include coral reef and habitat for many marine animals, including the green sea turtle and a variety of fish and invertebrates. In addition, many archeological, cultural, and recreational resources are located within the marine realm of the park. Potential threats and stressors to the modern marine environment include ground-water and surface-water contamination, invasive plants and algae, fishing pressure and use of monofilament gill nets (which can ensnare marine life or become tangled on reefs and be left behind as fishing debris), and visitor use impacts, such as scuba diving and snorkeling. Illegal dumping, oil releases, boat groundings, and other physical damage to reef resources are potential threats from users of the nearby harbor. Special issues of concern for the park include establishing baseline conditions of the offshore resources before the development of adjacent coastal lands. Until this study, only a general knowledge of the distribution of benthic habitats and the characteristics of the offshore region of Kaloko-Honokōhau National Historical Park was available. In 2003, a collaborative project between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Coastal and Marine Geology Program and the National Park Service (NPS) was initiated to develop detailed benthic-habitat classification maps for the marine lands within and adjacent to the park. The intent of this project is to provide baseline maps and a Geographic Information System (GIS) database and description of the biological and geological resources of these marine lands in order to facilitate the management, interpretation, and understanding of park resources. A benthic-habitat classification map was created for the park using existing color aerial photography, Scanning Hydrographic Operational Airborne Lidar Survey (SHOALS) bathymetric data, georeferenced underwater video, and still photography. Individual habitat polygons were classified using five basic attributes: (1) major structure or substrate, (2) dominant structure, (3) major biologic cover on the substrate, (4) percentage of major biological cover, and (5) geographic zone. Additional information regarding geology, morphology, and coral species were also noted.

Hawai'i↗

Integrated monitoring of hydrogeomorphic, vegetative, and edaphic conditions in riparian ecosystems of Great Basin National Park, Nevada

In semiarid regions such as the Great Basin, riparian areas function as oases of cooler and more stable microclimates, greater relative humidity, greater structural complexity, and a steady flow of water and nutrients relative to upland areas. These qualities make riparian areaʼs attractive not only to resident and migratory wildlife, but also to visitors in recreation areas such as Great Basin National Park in the Snake Range, east-central Nevada. To expand upon the system of ten permanent plots sampled in 1992 (Smith et al. 1994) and 2001 (Beever et al. in press ), we established a collection of 31 cross-sectional transects of 50-m width across the mainstems of Strawberry, Lehman, Baker, and Snake creeks. Our aims in this research were threefold: a) map riparian vegetative communities in greater detail than had been done by past efforts; b) provide a monitoring baseline of hydrogeomorphology; structure, composition, and function of upland- and riparianassociated vegetation; and edaphic properties potentially sensitive to management; and c) test whether instream conditions or physiographic variables predicted vegetation patterns across the four target streams. In each of the four watersheds, we performed walking transects from the lower-elevation boundary of the park along creek mainstems to a point well above the point at which vehicle access stopped. In these transects, we ranked, by cover, the riparian and upland woody species on each side of the creek, in 0.32-km segments. These walking transects also facilitated selection of a suite of cross-sectional transects that might serve as an early-warning signal of change for natural (e.g., aggradative) and anthropogenic changes (e.g., due to visitor impacts or climate change). At each cross-sectional transect, we used several methods: a) measurement of the number, approximate volume, and total length of instream logs greater than 10 cm in diameter that were within 5 m up- or downstream of the transect; b) counts of pebbles by size class, following Wolman (1954); c) line-point intercepts, which provided various measures of percent cover; d) gap-intercept transects, following Herrick et al. (in press), to measure susceptibility of uplands to erosion by wind or water; e) 1-m 2 quadrats, to obtain frequency of woody species; f) nested-frequency plots, to measure frequency of all plant species in quadrats of varying size; g) a field-based soil aggregate stability test following Herrick et al. (2001); and h) an impact penetrometer, to measure penetration resistance of soil horizons. We used species-accumulation curves to assess the ability of our methods to detect the majority of plant species at sites, using the most species-rich and species-poor sites as illustrations. We compared characteristics of hydrogeomorphic valley types (designated by Frissell and Liss 1993), vegetation types, and creeks individually and, using multivariate analyses for the first two ʻtypes,ʼ simultaneously. For the latter, using both the nested-frequency and 1-m 2 frequency data, we first used nonmetric multidimensional scaling (NMS) to assess relationships of plant communities among sites. Secondly, we used multi-response permutation procedures (MRPP) to test whether plant-community differences existed among either hydrogeomophic valley types or vegetation types. To increase the value of these comparisons for management, we used indicator species analyses to quantify the indicator value of each individual plant species for separating groups. In contrast to the more incised riparian channels of central Nevada, we observed knickzones, downcutting, and incision only rarely and usually with limited extent in the walking surveys. Downcutting occurred most frequently and extensively in Strawberry and Snake creeks, due in part to their more erodible soils. According to a hydrogeomorphologist with extensive experience in Great Basin riparian systems, the sediment-delivery and hydrologic systems appeared relatively undisturbed in most reaches, with respect to grazing animals and other types of anthropogenic alteration. Site elevation of the 31 transects ranged from 1,950-2,987 m, and stream slope (i.e., gradient) was relatively steep (mean = 9.3%, range 3-16%). Strawberry Creek averaged the lowest maximum water depth, and correspondingly had greatest width/depth ratios. Baker Creek sites averaged the smallest amount of tree-canopy gaps, whereas Snake Creek sites on average had the largest proportion of gaps in understory vegetation. Sites in terrace-bound valley types averaged the lowest slope in the channel as well as the least cover of trees, litter, and vegetation overall, whereas alluviated, boulder-bed canyon sites averaged the greatest widths of the active channel. Sites in Lehman Creek averaged nearly twice as much coarse woody debris as sites from any other creek, whereas Baker Creek sites averaged greatest tree cover (mean = 67%, range 40 – 96%) and species richness (mean = 17.3 species). Multivariate ordinations suggested that sites in leveed outwash valleys and alluvial-fan-influenced valleys had the greatest inter-site heterogeneity in plant composition, whereas sites in incised moraine-filled valleys appeared most homogeneous. Differences among homogeneity of sites within vegetation types were less pronounced, but sites dominated by either aspen and Woodsʼ rose or narrow-leaved cottonwood had the most similar plant communities among sites of the same vegetation type. A number of species were faithful indicators of various valley and vegetation types, using either set of plant-frequency data. We estimate that all 31 sites could be subsequently re-sampled in 14-18 field days by individuals possessing familiarity of the riparian flora of the southern Snake Range. As with any research, monitoring-focused investigations must balance the concerns for number of ecosystem attributes measured, extensiveness in time and space of sampling periods and locations, and the time and cost of sampling.

Nevada↗

Computed statistics at streamgages, and methods for estimating low-flow frequency statistics and development of regional regression equations for estimating low-flow frequency statistics at ungaged locations in Missouri

The weather and precipitation patterns in Missouri vary considerably from year to year. In 2008, the statewide average rainfall was 57.34 inches and in 2012, the statewide average rainfall was 30.64 inches. This variability in precipitation and resulting streamflow in Missouri underlies the necessity for water managers and users to have reliable streamflow statistics and a means to compute select statistics at ungaged locations for a better understanding of water availability. Knowledge of surface-water availability is dependent on the streamflow data that have been collected and analyzed by the U.S. Geological Survey for more than 100 years at approximately 350 streamgages throughout Missouri. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Missouri Department of Natural Resources, computed streamflow statistics at streamgages through the 2010 water year, defined periods of drought and defined methods to estimate streamflow statistics at ungaged locations, and developed regional regression equations to compute selected streamflow statistics at ungaged locations. Streamflow statistics and flow durations were computed for 532 streamgages in Missouri and in neighboring States of Missouri. For streamgages with more than 10 years of record, Kendall’s tau was computed to evaluate for trends in streamflow data. If trends were detected, the variable length method was used to define the period of no trend. Water years were removed from the dataset from the beginning of the record for a streamgage until no trend was detected. Low-flow frequency statistics were then computed for the entire period of record and for the period of no trend if 10 or more years of record were available for each analysis. Three methods are presented for computing selected streamflow statistics at ungaged locations. The first method uses power curve equations developed for 28 selected streams in Missouri and neighboring States that have multiple streamgages on the same streams. Statistical estimates on one of these streams can be calculated at an ungaged location that has a drainage area that is between 40 percent of the drainage area of the farthest upstream streamgage and within 150 percent of the drainage area of the farthest downstream streamgage along the stream of interest. The second method may be used on any stream with a streamgage that has operated for 10 years or longer and for which anthropogenic effects have not changed the low-flow characteristics at the ungaged location since collection of the streamflow data. A ratio of drainage area of the stream at the ungaged location to the drainage area of the stream at the streamgage was computed to estimate the statistic at the ungaged location. The range of applicability is between 40- and 150-percent of the drainage area of the streamgage, and the ungaged location must be located on the same stream as the streamgage. The third method uses regional regression equations to estimate selected low-flow frequency statistics for unregulated streams in Missouri. This report presents regression equations to estimate frequency statistics for the 10-year recurrence interval and for the N-day durations of 1, 2, 3, 7, 10, 30, and 60 days. Basin and climatic characteristics were computed using geographic information system software and digital geospatial data. A total of 35 characteristics were computed for use in preliminary statewide and regional regression analyses based on existing digital geospatial data and previous studies. Spatial analyses for geographical bias in the predictive accuracy of the regional regression equations defined three low-flow regions with the State representing the three major physiographic provinces in Missouri. Region 1 includes the Central Lowlands, Region 2 includes the Ozark Plateaus, and Region 3 includes the Mississippi Alluvial Plain. A total of 207 streamgages were used in the regression analyses for the regional equations. Of the 207 U.S. Geological Survey streamgages, 77 were located in Region 1, 120 were located in Region 2, and 10 were located in Region 3. Streamgages located outside of Missouri were selected to extend the range of data used for the independent variables in the regression analyses. Streamgages included in the regression analyses had 10 or more years of record and were considered to be affected minimally by anthropogenic activities or trends. Regional regression analyses identified three characteristics as statistically significant for the development of regional equations. For Region 1, drainage area, longest flow path, and streamflow-variability index were statistically significant. The range in the standard error of estimate for Region 1 is 79.6 to 94.2 percent. For Region 2, drainage area and streamflow variability index were statistically significant, and the range in the standard error of estimate is 48.2 to 72.1 percent. For Region 3, drainage area and streamflow-variability index also were statistically significant with a range in the standard error of estimate of 48.1 to 96.2 percent. Limitations on the use of estimating low-flow frequency statistics at ungaged locations are dependent on the method used. The first method outlined for use in Missouri, power curve equations, were developed to estimate the selected statistics for ungaged locations on 28 selected streams with multiple streamgages located on the same stream. A second method uses a drainage-area ratio to compute statistics at an ungaged location using data from a single streamgage on the same stream with 10 or more years of record. Ungaged locations on these streams may use the ratio of the drainage area at an ungaged location to the drainage area at a streamgage location to scale the selected statistic value from the streamgage location to the ungaged location. This method can be used if the drainage area of the ungaged location is within 40 to 150 percent of the streamgage drainage area. The third method is the use of the regional regression equations. The limits for the use of these equations are based on the ranges of the characteristics used as independent variables and that streams must be affected minimally by anthropogenic activities.

Missouri↗

Status and understanding of groundwater quality in the northern Sierra Nevada foothills domestic-supply aquifer study units, 2015–17—California GAMA Priority Basin Project

Groundwater quality in the northern Sierra Nevada foothills region of California was investigated as part of California State Water Resources Control Board (SWRCB) Groundwater Ambient Monitoring Assessment Priority Basin Project (GAMA-PBP). The region was divided into two study units: the Yuba-Bear watersheds (YBW) study unit and the American-Cosumnes-Mokelumne watersheds (ACMW) study unit. The GAMA-PBP made a spatially unbiased assessment of aquifer systems used for domestic drinking-water supply in the study region, which are predominantly composed of fractured, hard-rock aquifers of varying lithology. These assessments characterized the quality of raw groundwater to evaluate ambient conditions in the domestic-supply aquifer and not the quality of treated drinking water. The study included three components: (1) a status assessment , which characterized the quality of groundwater resources used for domestic drinking-water supply in the YBW and ACMW study units; (2) an understanding assessment , which evaluated natural and anthropogenic explanatory factors that could potentially affect groundwater quality in the study region; and (3) a comparative assessment between the groundwater resources used for domestic and public drinking-water supply in the study region. The status assessment was based on data collected by the GAMA-PBP from 74 sites in the YBW study unit during 2015–16 and 67 sites in the ACMW study unit from 2016 to 2017. To contextualize water-quality results, concentrations of water-quality constituents in ambient groundwater were compared to regulatory and non-regulatory benchmarks typically used by the State of California and Federal agencies as health-based or aesthetic standards for public drinking water. The status assessment used a grid-based method to estimate proportions of groundwater resources with concentrations approaching or exceeding benchmark thresholds. This method provides spatially unbiased results and allows inter-comparability with similar groundwater-quality assessments. Inorganic constituents with health-based benchmarks were present at high relative concentration (RC), meaning they exceeded the benchmark threshold, in 5.4 and 10 percent of domestic-supply aquifer systems in the YBW and ACMW study units, respectively. Inorganic constituents with aesthetic-based benchmarks were detected at high-RCs in 20 and 28 percent of the YBW and ACMW study units, respectively. The inorganic constituents present at high RC were arsenic, barium, boron, molybdenum, strontium, nitrate, adjusted gross-alpha particle activity, chloride, total dissolved solids, specific conductance, iron, manganese, and hardness. Groundwater samples were tested for presence or absence of three microbial indicators (total coliform, Escherichia coli , and Enterococci ). At least one microbial indicator was present in 26 and 28 percent of the YBW and ACMW study units, respectively. At least one organic constituent was detected in 30 and 42 percent of the YBW and ACMW study units, respectively. Organic constituents were not present at high RC, but tetrachloroethene (PCE), trichloroethene (TCE), and toluene were detected in the YBW study unit at moderate RC (between the benchmark concentration and one-tenth of the benchmark concentration). Methyl tert -butyl ether (MTBE) and chloroform were present at low RC (less than one-tenth of the benchmark concentration) in the YBW and ACMW study units with detection frequencies greater than 10 percent. Perchlorate, a constituent of special interest, was detected in 31 and 41 percent of the YBW and ACMW study units, respectively, at either low or moderate RCs. Relations among select water-quality constituents and potential explanatory factors were evaluated using statistical and graphical approaches. Nitrate, microbial indicators, and perchlorate were all correlated to elevation-dependent variables relating to climate, land use, and recharge condition. Isotopic and dissolved noble-gas tracers indicated these water-quality constituents are associated with recharge conditions associated with irrigation during the summer dry-season, which is common in areas of rural-residential or agricultural land uses. Higher concentrations of iron and manganese were primarily associated with anoxic groundwater in aquifers of metasedimentary lithology. Increased hardness was primarily associated with anoxic groundwater in aquifers of mafic-ultramafic or metavolcanics lithologies at lower elevations in the study region in the Melones fault zone. Chloroform and MTBE were associated with shallow groundwater (wells depths less than 130 m) under oxic and anoxic redox conditions, respectively. The comparative assessment evaluated differences between the aquifer systems used for domestic- and public-supply in study region based on (1) well-construction characteristics, and (2) water quality. Analysis of over 60,000 well-completion reports in the study region showed that although domestic-supply wells span the deepest depth zones in regional aquifers, median depths for public-supply wells were significantly greater than those of domestic-supply wells in both study units. Water-quality data from more than 300 public-supply wells in the study region were assessed using a spatially weighted method for calculation aquifer-scale proportions and compared with the domestic-supply assessment results. Detections of inorganic constituents at high RC and detection frequencies for organic constituents were generally similar between the domestic- and public-supply aquifer systems in both study units, with a few notable exceptions in the ACMW study unit: nitrate was greater for the public- compared to domestic-supply aquifer system and both manganese, hardness, and MTBE were greater in the domestic- compared to public-supply aquifer system. These differences are likely related to contrasting land uses, aquifer lithologies, landscape positions, and depths characterizing domestic- and public-supply wells in the ACMW study unit. Overall, fewer samples from domestic-supply wells in the northern Sierra Nevada foothills exceeded health-based benchmarks compared to aesthetic-based benchmarks for groundwater quality. Exceedences of health-based benchmarks were primarily caused by nitrate and coliform bacteria, which were associated with recharge from diverted surface water used primarily for irrigation. Exceedences of aesthetic-based benchmarks were primarily caused by iron, managanese, and hardness, which were associated with geologic factors. Regional irrigation practices and aquifer lithology can affect groundwater quality in fractured-rock aquifers in the northern Sierra Nevada foothills used for domestic drinking-water supply.

California↗

Use of chemical analysis and assays of semipermeable membrane devices extracts to assess the response of bioavailable organic pollutants in streams to urbanization in six metropolitan areas of the United States

Studies to assess the effects of urbanization on stream ecosystems are being conducted as part of the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program. The overall objectives of these studies are to (1) determine how hydrologic, geomorphic, water quality, habitat, and biological characteristics respond to land-use changes associated with urbanization in specific environmental settings, and (2) compare these responses across environmental settings. As part of an integrated assessment, semipermeable membrane devices (SPMDs) were deployed in streams along a gradient of urban land-use intensity in and around Atlanta, Georgia; Raleigh-Durham, North Carolina; and Denver-Fort Collins, Colorado, in 2003; and Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas; Milwaukee-Green Bay, Wisconsin; and Portland, Oregon, in 2004. Sites were selected to avoid point-source discharge and to minimize natural variability within each of the six metropolitan areas. In addition to standard chemical analysis for hydrophobic organic contaminants, three assays were used to address mixtures and potential toxicity: (1) Fluoroscan provides an estimate of the total concentration of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs); (2) the P450RGS assay indicates the presence and levels of aryl hydrocarbon receptor agonists; and (3) Microtox® measures toxicological effects on photo-luminescent bacteria. Of the 140 compounds targeted or identified by gas chromatography/mass spectrometry analysis in this study, 67 were not detected. In terms of numbers and types of compounds, the following were detected: 2 wood preservatives, 6 insecticides (parent compounds), 5 herbicides, 22 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, 2 dibenzofurans, 4 polychlorinated biphenyls, 7 compounds associated with fragrances or personal care products, 4 steroids associated with wastewater, 5 polydibromated diphenyl ethers (flame retardants), 3 plasticizers, 3 antimicrobials/disinfectants, and 3 detergent metabolites. Of the 73 compounds detected and three assays utilized, 29 were detected in 25 percent or more of the streams and were strongly related to increases in urban intensity (defined as having a Spearman’s rho > 0.5 with percent urban land cover) in at least one of the six metropolitan areas investigated. These 29 endpoints included 16 PAHs, a wood preservative (pentachloroanisole), 2 insecticides (chlorpyrifos and chlordane), 3 herbicides (benfluralin, trifluralin, and dacthal), a synthetic musk (hexahydrohexamethylcyclopentabenzopyran, HHCB), 2 furans (methyldibenzofuran and benzo[b]naphtho[2,3-d]furan), and a flame retardant (BDE 47). In addition, the number of compounds detected and results of the Fluoroscan and P450RGS assays were strongly related to urban intensity. Average water concentrations estimated from SPMDs were compared to screening benchmarks for the protection of human health and aquatic life; of the 14 compounds with available benchmarks, 3 compounds (anthracene, dieldrin, and diazinon) exceeded those levels in one or more streams. Both dieldrin and anthracene exceeded their respective benchmarks in seven streams, and diazinon in only one stream. There were more exceedances in Milwaukee-Green Bay and Raleigh-Durham than in the other metropolitan areas, and there were no exceedances in Dallas-Fort Worth. The six metropolitan areas studied differed in the number and types of endpoints related to urban intensity, probably from a combination of factors governing source strength, transport, and fate of hydrophobic compounds. The number of endpoints strongly related to urban intensity ranged from 3 in Dallas-Fort Worth and Portland to 21 in Raleigh-Durham. High frequencies of detection and strong correlations with urban land cover for pyrogenic PAHs (such as unsubstituted 4-ringed PAHs) in all six metropolitan areas indicate that these compounds are an important component of urbanization, regardless of location. Pentachloroanisole, dibenzofurans, and petrogenic PAHs (alkylated PAHs and heterocyclic dibenzothiophenes) were frequently detected and strongly related to urban intensity in Atlanta, Raleigh-Durham, Milwaukee-Green Bay, and Denver-Fort Collins. Two insecticides were related to urban intensity: chlorpyrifos in Atlanta, Raleigh-Durham, and Dallas-Fort Worth; and chlordane in Raleigh-Durham. Three herbicides were strongly related to urban intensity: trifluralin in Atlanta and Raleigh-Durham; benfluralin in Atlanta, and dacthal in Denver-Fort Collins. The detection frequencies for most wastewater indicator compounds were too low to establish relations with urban intensity. Of the wastewater compounds analyzed, HHCB in Raleigh-Durham and Denver-Fort Collins, and BDE 47 in Denver-Fort Collins and Dallas-Forth Worth, had the strongest relations with urban intensity. In addition to pyrogenic PAHs, levels of aryl hydrocarbon receptor agonists (as measured by the P450RGS assay) were strongly related to increasing urban intensity in all six metropolitan areas. PAHs were the only group of aryl hydrocarbon agonists consistently detected and related with urban intensity in all six metropolitan areas. It is unknown which compounds in the SPMDs caused the increased response in the P450RGS assay because the SPMDs likely contained many aryl hydrocarbon receptor agonists not quantified by chemical analysis. It is clear that bioavailable, aryl hydrocarbon receptor agonists increase in streams with increasing urban intensity in the basin. Potential toxicity mediated by this metabolic pathway should be considered in integrated assessments of the response of aquatic biota to urbanization.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Evaluation of natural and anthropogenic (human-made) hexavalent chromium

Hexavalent chromium, Cr(VI), was released between 1952 and 1964 from the Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E) Hinkley compressor station, in the Mojave Desert about 80 miles northeast of Los Angeles, California. Geologic, geochemical, and hydrologic data from more than 100 wells collected between March 2015 and November 2017 were interpreted using a summative-scale analysis to define the extent of anthropogenic (human-made) Cr(VI) in groundwater. The summative scale consisted of eight questions requiring binary (yes or no) answers for each sampled well. The questions were intended to (1) provide a transparent framework for data interpretation in which all stakeholders participated; (2) provide unbiased interpretation of data traceable to numerical measurements; (3) provide a framework that enabled geologic, geochemical, and hydrologic data to be considered collectively; and (4) consolidate different types of data into a simple, easy-to-understand interpretation. When data from each well are scored using questions and metrics within the summative scale, all stakeholders would score each well the same way and would draw the same summative-scale Cr(VI) plume extent. The areal extent of the summative-scale Cr(VI) plume was 5.5 square miles (mi 2 ); this is larger than the 2.2-mi 2 extent of the October–December 2015 (Q4 2015) regulatory Cr(VI) plume but smaller than the 8.3-mi2 maximum mapped extent of Cr(VI) greater than the interim regulatory Cr(VI) background value of 3.1 micrograms per liter (μg/L). The summative-scale Cr(VI) plume is within the area covered by the PG&E monitoring well network and lies within “Mojave-type” deposits composed of low-chromium stream and near-shore lake deposits sourced from the Mojave River. The summative-scale Cr(VI) plume included all shallow wells within the footprint of the Q4 2015 regulatory Cr(VI) plume, but summative-scale scores indicate that anthropogenic Cr(VI) was not present in several wells within the footprint of the regulatory Cr(VI) plume that were screened within the deep zone of the upper aquifer. The summative-scale Cr(VI) plume extent was consistent with mineralogic and geochemical data collected as part of this study that were not used within the summative-scale analysis. Data from wells outside the summative-scale Cr(VI) plume collected for regulatory purposes from April 2017 through March 2018 were used to estimate Cr(VI) background concentrations as the upper 95-percent tolerance limit (UTL 95 ) in different parts of Hinkley and Water Valleys. The UTL 95 values were calculated using the computer program ProUCL 5.1 and are suitable for use by regulatory agencies in support of (1) updating the regulatory Cr(VI) plume extent and management of Cr(VI) near the plume margins, (2) establishing cleanup goals for Cr(VI) within the updated regulatory Cr(VI) plume, and (3) identifying unusual Cr(VI) concentrations outside the regulatory Cr(VI) plume. The nonparametric UTL 95 values for wells screened in Mojave-type deposits in the eastern, western, and northern subareas of Hinkley Valley were 3.7, 3.9, and 4.0 μg/L, respectively. The normal UTL 95 values for wells screened in undifferentiated, unconsolidated deposits in the eastern and western subareas and the northern subarea upgradient from the Mount General fault were 2.8, 3.8, and 4.8 μg/L, respectively. An overall normal UTL 95 value of 3.8 μg/L was calculated for undifferentiated, unconsolidated deposits in these areas. This value is similar to the overall nonparametric UTL 95 value of 3.9 μg/L calculated for Mojave-type deposits and similar to the maximum Cr(VI) concentration of older groundwater in contact with Mojave-type deposits of 3.6 μg/L. The provenance of most PG&E monitoring wells is not precisely known, and the UTL 95 values for wells screened in undifferentiated, unconsolidated deposits in the different subareas may be more widely applicable for regulatory purposes than the UTL 95 values for Mojave-type deposits. The UTL 95 value of 2.8 μg/L for wells screened in undifferentiated, unconsolidated deposits in the eastern subarea is important for plume management because most of the summative-scale Cr(VI) plume is within the eastern subarea. A UTL 95 value of 5.8 μg/L was calculated for older (pre-1952) groundwater associated with mudflat/playa deposits in the eastern subarea near Mount General. A UTL 95 value of 2.3 μg/L was calculated for Mojave-type deposits within the Cr(VI) plume downgradient from the Hinkley compressor station after regulatory updates. This lower value is consistent with neutral to slightly alkaline, younger (post-1952) groundwater within coarse-textured, low-chromium Mojave-type deposits in this area and may be a suitable metric for Cr(VI) cleanup goals. The UTL 95 value of 4.8 μg/L for wells screened in undifferentiated, unconsolidated deposits in the northern subarea upgradient from the Mount General fault provides for possible increases in Cr(VI) concentrations if water levels continue to decline. Downgradient from the Q4 2015 regulatory Cr(VI) plume and the summative-scale Cr(VI) plume, UTL 95 values of 9.0 and 6.4 μg/L were calculated for wells screened in undifferentiated, unconsolidated deposits in the northern subarea downgradient from the Mount General fault and for Water Valley, respectively, consistent with different geologic and geochemical conditions in these areas. The UTL 95 values calculated as part of this study provide scientifically defensible estimates of background Cr(VI) concentrations that differ with local geologic, geochemical, and hydrologic conditions in Hinkley and Water Valleys. The regulatory Cr(VI) plume extent can be updated on the basis of these values. The summative-scale Cr(VI) plume extent may contain wells having anthropogenic Cr(VI) concentrations less than the UTL 95 values for their respective subareas that may not require regulatory attention, and an updated regulatory Cr(VI) plume extent may be less than the summative-scale Cr(VI) plume extent. The UTL 95 values are not background Cr(VI) concentrations for regulatory purposes, and the authority to establish regulatory values resides solely with the Lahontan Regional Water Quality Control Board.

California↗

Water levels and water quality in the Sparta-Memphis aquifer (middle Claiborne aquifer) in Arkansas, spring-summer 2009

The U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Arkansas Natural Resources Commission and the Arkansas Geological Survey has monitored water levels in the Sparta Sand of Claiborne Group and Memphis Sand of Claiborne Group (herein referred to as the Sparta Sand and the Memphis Sand, respectively) since the 1920s. Groundwater withdrawals have increased while water levels have declined since monitoring was initiated. Herein, aquifers in the Sparta Sand and Memphis Sand will be referred to as the Sparta-Memphis aquifer throughout Arkansas. During the spring of 2009, 324 water levels were measured in wells completed in the Sparta-Memphis aquifer and used to produce a regional potentiometric-surface map. During the summer of 2009, 64 water-quality samples were collected and measured for specific conductance, temperature, and pH from wells completed in the Sparta-Memphis aquifer. The regional direction of groundwater flow in the Sparta-Memphis aquifer is generally to the south-southeast in the northern half of Arkansas and to the east and south in the southern half of Arkansas, away from the outcrop area except where affected by large groundwater withdrawals. The highest and lowest water-level altitudes measured in the Sparta-Memphis aquifer were 325 feet above and 157 feet below National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929, respectively. Eight depressions (generally represented by closed contours) are located in the following counties: Bradley; Ashley; Calhoun; Cleveland; Columbia; Arkansas, Jefferson, Lincoln, and Prairie; Cross and Poinsett; and Union. Two large depressions shown on the 2009 potentiometric-surface map, centered in Jefferson and Union Counties, are the result of large withdrawals for industrial, irrigation, or public supply. The depression centered in Jefferson County deepened and expanded in recent years into Arkansas and Prairie Counties. The area enclosed within the 40-foot contour on the 2009 potentiometric-surface map has expanded south to the Drew County line and moved west from the intersection of Arkansas, Jefferson, and Lincoln Counties when compared with the 2007 potentiometric-surface map. To the north, east, and west, the 40-foot contour is comparable to the 2007 potentiometric-surface map. The lowest water-level altitude measurement during 2009 in the center of the depression in Union County represents a rise of 42 feet since 2003. The area enclosed by the lowest altitude contour, 140 feet below National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929, on the 2009 potentiometric-surface map is about half the area on the 2007 potentiometric-surface map. In the depression in western Poinsett and Cross Counties, the 140-foot contour extended north to the Poinsett-Craighead County line and south across Cross County about two-thirds of the distance to the St. Francis County line. A water-level difference map was constructed using water-level measurements made during 2005 and 2009 from 309 wells. The difference in water level between 2005 and 2009 ranged from -74.6 to 60.2 feet. Areas with a general rise in water levels occur in central Columbia County, southern Jefferson County, and most of Union County. In the area around west-central Union County, water levels rose as much as 60.2 feet with water levels in 18 wells rising 20 feet or more, representing an average annual rise of 5 feet or more. Water levels generally declined throughout most of the rest of Arkansas. Hydrographs were constructed using a minimum of 25 years of water-level measurements at each of 206 wells. During the period 1985–2009, mean annual water levels rose in Calhoun, Columbia, Lafayette, and Union Counties, about 1.3 feet per year (ft/yr), 0.2 ft/yr, 0.1 ft/yr, and 0.6 ft/yr, respectively. Mean annual water-level declines between 0.0 and 2.3 ft/yr occurred in all other counties. In western Arkansas County, water-level altitudes in a continuously monitored well declined 60 feet during the irrigation season (April to September). Specific conductance ranged from 43 microsiemens per centimeter at 25 degrees Celsius (μS/cm) in Ouachita County to 1,230 μS/cm in Phillips County. The mean specific conductance was 392 μS/cm. Although there is a regional increase in specific conductance to the east and south, specific conductance values greater than 700 μS/cm occurred in samples from wells in Arkansas, Ashley, Monroe, Phillips, and Union Counties.

Arkansas↗

Computing daily mean streamflow at ungaged locations in Iowa by using the Flow Anywhere and Flow Duration Curve Transfer statistical methods

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) maintains approximately 148 real-time streamgages in Iowa for which daily mean streamflow information is available, but daily mean streamflow data commonly are needed at locations where no streamgages are present. Therefore, the USGS conducted a study as part of a larger project in cooperation with the Iowa Department of Natural Resources to develop methods to estimate daily mean streamflow at locations in ungaged watersheds in Iowa by using two regression-based statistical methods. The regression equations for the statistical methods were developed from historical daily mean streamflow and basin characteristics from streamgages within the study area, which includes the entire State of Iowa and adjacent areas within a 50-mile buffer of Iowa in neighboring states. Results of this study can be used with other techniques to determine the best method for application in Iowa and can be used to produce a Web-based geographic information system tool to compute streamflow estimates automatically. The Flow Anywhere statistical method is a variation of the drainage-area-ratio method, which transfers same-day streamflow information from a reference streamgage to another location by using the daily mean streamflow at the reference streamgage and the drainage-area ratio of the two locations. The Flow Anywhere method modifies the drainage-area-ratio method in order to regionalize the equations for Iowa and determine the best reference streamgage from which to transfer same-day streamflow information to an ungaged location. Data used for the Flow Anywhere method were retrieved for 123 continuous-record streamgages located in Iowa and within a 50-mile buffer of Iowa. The final regression equations were computed by using either left-censored regression techniques with a low limit threshold set at 0.1 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) and the daily mean streamflow for the 15th day of every other month, or by using an ordinary-least-squares multiple linear regression method and the daily mean streamflow for the 15th day of every other month. The Flow Duration Curve Transfer method was used to estimate unregulated daily mean streamflow from the physical and climatic characteristics of gaged basins. For the Flow Duration Curve Transfer method, daily mean streamflow quantiles at the ungaged site were estimated with the parameter-based regression model, which results in a continuous daily flow-duration curve (the relation between exceedance probability and streamflow for each day of observed streamflow) at the ungaged site. By the use of a reference streamgage, the Flow Duration Curve Transfer is converted to a time series. Data used in the Flow Duration Curve Transfer method were retrieved for 113 continuous-record streamgages in Iowa and within a 50-mile buffer of Iowa. The final statewide regression equations for Iowa were computed by using a weighted-least-squares multiple linear regression method and were computed for the 0.01-, 0.05-, 0.10-, 0.15-, 0.20-, 0.30-, 0.40-, 0.50-, 0.60-, 0.70-, 0.80-, 0.85-, 0.90-, and 0.95-exceedance probability statistics determined from the daily mean streamflow with a reporting limit set at 0.1 ft 3 /s. The final statewide regression equation for Iowa computed by using left-censored regression techniques was computed for the 0.99-exceedance probability statistic determined from the daily mean streamflow with a low limit threshold and a reporting limit set at 0.1 ft 3 /s. For the Flow Anywhere method, results of the validation study conducted by using six streamgages show that differences between the root-mean-square error and the mean absolute error ranged from 1,016 to 138 ft 3 /s, with the larger value signifying a greater occurrence of outliers between observed and estimated streamflows. Root-mean-square-error values ranged from 1,690 to 237 ft 3 /s. Values of the percent root-mean-square error ranged from 115 percent to 26.2 percent. The logarithm (base 10) streamflow percent root-mean-square error ranged from 13.0 to 5.3 percent. Root-mean-square-error observations standard-deviation-ratio values ranged from 0.80 to 0.40. Percent-bias values ranged from 25.4 to 4.0 percent. Untransformed streamflow Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency values ranged from 0.84 to 0.35. The logarithm (base 10) streamflow Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency values ranged from 0.86 to 0.56. For the streamgage with the best agreement between observed and estimated streamflow, higher streamflows appear to be underestimated. For the streamgage with the worst agreement between observed and estimated streamflow, low flows appear to be overestimated whereas higher flows seem to be underestimated. Estimated cumulative streamflows for the period October 1, 2004, to September 30, 2009, are underestimated by -25.8 and -7.4 percent for the closest and poorest comparisons, respectively. For the Flow Duration Curve Transfer method, results of the validation study conducted by using the same six streamgages show that differences between the root-mean-square error and the mean absolute error ranged from 437 to 93.9 ft 3 /s, with the larger value signifying a greater occurrence of outliers between observed and estimated streamflows. Root-mean-square-error values ranged from 906 to 169 ft 3 /s. Values of the percent root-mean-square-error ranged from 67.0 to 25.6 percent. The logarithm (base 10) streamflow percent root-mean-square error ranged from 12.5 to 4.4 percent. Root-mean-square-error observations standard-deviation-ratio values ranged from 0.79 to 0.40. Percent-bias values ranged from 22.7 to 0.94 percent. Untransformed streamflow Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency values ranged from 0.84 to 0.38. The logarithm (base 10) streamflow Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency values ranged from 0.89 to 0.48. For the streamgage with the closest agreement between observed and estimated streamflow, there is relatively good agreement between observed and estimated streamflows. For the streamgage with the poorest agreement between observed and estimated streamflow, streamflows appear to be substantially underestimated for much of the time period. Estimated cumulative streamflow for the period October 1, 2004, to September 30, 2009, are underestimated by -9.3 and -22.7 percent for the closest and poorest comparisons, respectively.

Illinois;Iowa;Minnesota;Missouri;Nebraska;Wisconsi↗