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Science strategy for Core Science Systems in the U.S. Geological Survey, 2013-2023

Core Science Systems is a new mission of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) that grew out of the 2007 Science Strategy, “Facing Tomorrow’s Challenges: U.S. Geological Survey Science in the Decade 2007–2017.” This report describes the vision for this USGS mission and outlines a strategy for Core Science Systems to facilitate integrated characterization and understanding of the complex earth system. The vision and suggested actions are bold and far-reaching, describing a conceptual model and framework to enhance the ability of USGS to bring its core strengths to bear on pressing societal problems through data integration and scientific synthesis across the breadth of science. The context of this report is inspired by a direction set forth in the 2007 Science Strategy. Specifically, ecosystem-based approaches provide the underpinnings for essentially all science themes that define the USGS. Every point on earth falls within a specific ecosystem where data, other information assets, and the expertise of USGS and its many partners can be employed to quantitatively understand how that ecosystem functions and how it responds to natural and anthropogenic disturbances. Every benefit society obtains from the planet—food, water, raw materials to build infrastructure, homes and automobiles, fuel to heat homes and cities, and many others, are derived from or effect ecosystems. The vision for Core Science Systems builds on core strengths of the USGS in characterizing and understanding complex earth and biological systems through research, modeling, mapping, and the production of high quality data on the nation’s natural resource infrastructure. Together, these research activities provide a foundation for ecosystem-based approaches through geologic mapping, topographic mapping, and biodiversity mapping. The vision describes a framework founded on these core mapping strengths that makes it easier for USGS scientists to discover critical information, share and publish results, and identify potential collaborations that transcend all USGS missions. The framework is designed to improve the efficiency of scientific work within USGS by establishing a means to preserve and recall data for future applications, organizing existing scientific knowledge and data to facilitate new use of older information, and establishing a future workflow that naturally integrates new data, applications, and other science products to make it easier and more efficient to conduct interdisciplinary research over time. Given the increasing need for integrated data and interdisciplinary approaches to solve modern problems, leadership by the Core Science Systems mission will facilitate problem solving by all USGS missions in ways not formerly possible. The report lays out a strategy to achieve this vision through three goals with accompanying objectives and actions. The first goal builds on and enhances the strengths of the Core Science Systems mission in characterizing and understanding the earth system from the geologic framework to the topographic characteristics of the land surface and biodiversity across the nation. The second goal enhances and develops new strengths in computer and information science to make it easier for USGS scientists to discover data and models, share and publish results, and discover connections between scientific information and knowledge. The third goal brings additional focus to research and development methods to address complex issues affecting society that require integration of knowledge and new methods for synthesizing scientific information. Collectively, the report lays out a strategy to create a seamless connection between all USGS activities to accelerate and make USGS science more efficient by fully integrating disciplinary expertise within a new and evolving science paradigm for a changing world in the 21st century.

Open-File Report↗

Effects of Impoundments and Land-Cover Changes on Streamflows and Selected Fish Habitat in the Upper Osage River Basin, Missouri and Kansas

A study was conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Missouri Department of Conservation to estimate the effects of existing and proposed impoundments, land-cover changes, and reported water uses on streamflows in the 5,410-square mile upper Osage River Basin. The hydrologic model Hydrologic Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) was calibrated and validated to current (1995?2004 water years) regulation and water-use conditions, and scenarios were developed to evaluate differences for the same 10-years of record under pre-settlement, and proposed impoundment conditions. Analyses included quantification of changes in the magnitude, frequency, timing, and duration of streamflows under each simulation scenario. Streamflows from the simulations were used in conjunction with known streamflow-fish habitat relations to quantify effects of altered flows on fish-habitat area at selected Marais des Cygnes and Marmaton River locations. The cumulative effects of impoundments and land-cover changes were determined to substantially alter streamflows in the upper Osage River Basin model simulations spanning pre-settlement to proposed future conditions. The degree of streamflow alteration varied between major subbasins. Streamflows in the Marais des Cygnes River Basin were altered between pre-settlement and current conditions, primarily by major impoundments, with smaller changes expected with proposed regulation. Streamflows in the Little Osage River Basin were relatively unchanged between pre-settlement and current conditions with land-cover changes (primarily the conversion of native prairies to cultivated land) affecting flows more than the few current impoundments in this basin. The current peak flows in the Marmaton River Basin generally were higher than pre-settlement or proposed scenario peak flows. Of the three major subbasins, the Marmaton River Basin is likely to be the most affected by proposed impoundments. Declines in monthly minimum streamflows under a proposed impoundment scenario at the Marais des Cygnes River near the Kansas-Missouri state line, Kansas, were greatest for the lowest 10 percent of corresponding observed flows and during the driest years (2000, 2001 water years); that is, the greatest percent declines in flows under proposed conditions generally occurred during the lowest current/observed flow periods. In a small headwater basin in the Marmaton River Basin, simulated declines in minimum flows were small (generally less than 6 cubic feet per second and less than 1 cubic foot per second for 1- and 3-day scenarios), but resulted in 10 to 18 additional zero flow days for the 10-year simulation for the proposed scenarios relative to current simulated conditions. Reductions in minimum monthly flows as a result of additional impoundments generally were less than 5 cubic feet per second at the Marmaton River near Marmaton, Kansas, and resulted in 6 additional zero flow days. The greatest declines between proposed and current flows at the Marmaton River near the Kansas-Missouri state line, Missouri, generally occurred in the lower 50 percentile of the distribution of current simulated flows and during the drier simulation years (2001?2003). Proposed conditions resulted in declines in the 0-10 percentile flow values for the 1-, 3-, and 7-day durations. July, August, and October had the largest declines in proposed low flows relative to current simulated low flows for the 10-year simulation at this site. The flood frequency for the Marais des Cygnes River near the Kansas-Missouri state line was unchanged between observed and proposed conditions for the 10-year simulation, but was 450 percent greater under the pre-settlement scenarios compared to observed conditions. Flood frequency generally was greatest for the current condition scenarios in the Marmaton River Basin and least for the proposed conditions, although the effects of regulation on flood frequency decreased downstream from the Kansas-

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Do unpublished data help to redraw distributions? The case of the spectacled bear in Peru

Data availability remains a principal factor limiting the use of species distribution models (SDMs) as tools for wildlife conservation and management of rare species. Although data collected in systematic and rigorous fashion are preferable, available data for most species of conservation interest are usually low in both quality and number. Here we show that combining records published in peer-reviewed journals and gray literature sources (e.g., theses, government, and NGO reports) with unpublished records obtained by personal communications from relevant stakeholders affect the predicted distribution of spectacled bears ( Tremarctos ornatus ) in Peru. We built SDMs using generalized linear models, random forest, and Maxent, first using a dataset that only included published records, and second with a dataset using both published and unpublished records. All models were replicated ten times with random subsets with controlled sample size. Models that combined published and unpublished spectacled bear records had a better performance, irrespective of with SDM method used, increasing the connectivity of the species’ range, and increasing the overall predicted distribution area than models that only included published records. This was because unpublished records added key new localities, reducing spatial sampling biases. Our study shows that the inclusion of commonly disregarded data such as opportunistic records, reports from natural park rangers, student theses, and data-deficient small studies can make an important contribution to the overall ecological knowledge of rare and difficult-to-study species such as the spectacled bear.

Mammal Research↗

Calibration of a streamflow-routing model for the Delaware River and its principal tributaries in New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania

The flow-routing module of the Hydrologic Simulation Program-Fortran watershed model was calibrated for 31 reaches on the Delaware River and 5 of it principal tributaries. These calibrations primarily involved the development of discharge-storage volume relations for the defined reaches. Daily discharge records for stream-gaging stations located at the upstream ends of the study reaches on the respective streams provided the primary hydrographic inputs for the routing models. Streamflow records for gaging stations at upstream locations and on other tributaries were used to estimate all other inflows for the 5-year calibration period, 1979-83. Root mean square errors of streamflows that were simulated for the downstream ends of gaged reaches ranged from 0.4 to 9.4 percent for the Delaware River, Lehigh River, Schuylkill River, and Brandywine Creek. Errors of 13 and 30 percent resulted from the streamflow simulations for the Lackawaxen and Neversink Rivers, respectively. Verification simulations for a 3-month period of extreme low flows on the Delaware River in 1966 resulted in overestimation of discharges for the Trenton, NJ, gaging station by approximately 50 percent on many days. Observed (recorded) streamflows at the Trenton gaging station during this time were exceptionally low, owing to comparatively large diversions of flow for public supplies, and into the Delaware and Raritan Canal. A flow-verification simulation for 3 months of the summer and fall of 1985, during which time minimum flows in the basin were comparable to those of 1966, resulted in a root mean square error of 3.3 percent for the Trenton gaging station. There was no diversion to the Delaware and Raritan Canal at the time. Simulated flows closely matched observed flows for upstream gaging stations on the Delaware River as well, thereby confirming the routing calibration for this stream. Information contained in this report can be used, with little modification, to develop routing modules for full-scale applications of the Hydrologic Simulation Program FORTRAN model to the watersheds of the studied streams.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Ecological Investigations of the Federally Endangered Shivwits Milk-Vetch (Astragalus ampullarioides)--2006 Annual Report

Astragalus ampullarioides (Welsh) Welsh, the Shivwits milk-vetch, is an herbaceous perennial legume that was listed as federally endangered in September 2001. Known populations of this edaphic endemic species are restricted to Washington County, Utah, with the majority of occurrences found on gently sloping outcrops of the Triassic Petrified Forest Member of the Chinle Formation at the edge of the Mojave Desert. At the time of listing in 2001, surveys estimated a total of 1000 individuals for the species. In April-May 2006, surveys estimated approximately 4205 individuals distributed among six populations. Of the total number of individuals estimated in spring 2006, over 75 percent were distributed among three subpopulations in Zion National Park and approximately 60 percent occurred at a single 0.3-ha site in the Park. In addition to small population sizes and limited geographic distributions, the species is threatened to varying degrees by urbanization, livestock grazing, off-road vehicle use, and invasive exotic plants. In April 2006, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) initiated ecological investigations of the Shivwits milk-vetch to support conservation management and recovery of the species by the National Park Service (NPS; Zion National Park), the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), the Shivwits Band of the Paiute Tribe, and other cooperators such as The Nature Conservancy of Utah (TNC). To date, funding for this research has been provided by the Southwest Biological Science Center of the USGS Biological Resources Discipline, the USGS-NPS Park-Oriented Biological Support Project, and the Earth Surface Dynamics Program of the USGS Geologic Discipline. Additional logistical support has been provided by the Bureau of Land Management, Grand Staircase-Escalante National Monument. General objectives of this research are (1) to develop a better understanding of species-environment relations to support habitat modelling, future surveys for additional recovery populations, and potential efforts to establish new recovery populations; and (2) to evaluate effects of invasive exotic plants on habitat conditions and measures of milk-vetch performance. Specific objectives are to: Describe the distribution and abundance of milk-vetch populations and associated invasive exotic plant species within and outside of Zion National Park (Zion NP) in relation to geologic / geomorphic setting, soil properties, and plant community composition. In a field setting in Zion NP, conduct experiments to evaluate effects of invasive exotic plants on reproductive output and seedling establishment of A. ampullarioides across a gradient of exotic species biomass. Conduct greenhouse studies and analyze soils to evaluate effects of invasive exotic plants on soil biological properties (including mycorrhizal inocculation potential) that affect cycling and plant uptake of essential mineral nutrients. Based on environmental characteristics of known population locations, use Geographic Information System (GIS) tools to prepare a predictive habitat model that can be used to guide future surveys and efforts to evaluate sites for reintroduction efforts. This report describes 2006 progress and future plans for achieving these four objectives.

Open-File Report↗

The Geodetic Centroid (gCent) Catalog: Global earthquake monitoring with satellite imaging geodesy

Remote sensing geodetic observations (Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar [InSAR] and optical correlation [“pixel tracking”]) serve an increasingly diverse and important role in earthquake monitoring and response. This study introduces the Geodetic Centroid (gCent) catalog—an earthquake catalog derived solely from space‐based geodetic observations—and analysis of 74 earthquakes ( ⁠ M W 4.3–7.4) imaged from 1 August 2019 to 01 February 2022. For gCent, we use InSAR and optical correlation observations derived from the Sentinel‐1 satellites and various publicly available optical satellites to systematically image all global earthquakes M W 5.5 or larger and shallower than 25 km, M W 7.0 or larger at any depth, and other high‐impact earthquakes or seismic events of special interest. We invert surface displacements from successfully imaged earthquakes for the location, orientation, and dimensions of a single slipping fault patch that describes the centroid characteristics of the earthquake. These centroid models, in turn, are compiled into a catalog and used in U.S. Geological Survey/Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) operational earthquake response products such as ShakeMaps and finite‐fault models. We provide a comparison of the gCent catalog to the ANSS Comprehensive Catalog and Global Centroid Moment Tensor (Global CMT) catalog to compare reported locations, depths, and magnitudes. We find that global earthquake catalogs not only generally provide reasonably comparable locations (within 10 km on average), but also they systematically overestimate depth that may have implications for earthquake shaking predictions based solely on earthquake origin information. Geodetic magnitudes are comparable to seismically inferred magnitudes, indicating that gCent models are unlikely to be systematically biased by the presence of postseismic deformation. We additionally highlight limitations of the gCent catalog induced by both the limitations of remote sensing imaging of earthquakes and our imposition of a simplified earthquake source description that does not include spatially distributed slip.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

Documentation of a Conduit Flow Process (CFP) for MODFLOW-2005

This report documents the Conduit Flow Process (CFP) for the modular finite-difference ground-water flow model, MODFLOW-2005. The CFP has the ability to simulate turbulent ground-water flow conditions by: (1) coupling the traditional ground-water flow equation with formulations for a discrete network of cylindrical pipes (Mode 1), (2) inserting a high-conductivity flow layer that can switch between laminar and turbulent flow (Mode 2), or (3) simultaneously coupling a discrete pipe network while inserting a high-conductivity flow layer that can switch between laminar and turbulent flow (Mode 3). Conduit flow pipes (Mode 1) may represent dissolution or biological burrowing features in carbonate aquifers, voids in fractured rock, and (or) lava tubes in basaltic aquifers and can be fully or partially saturated under laminar or turbulent flow conditions. Preferential flow layers (Mode 2) may represent: (1) a porous media where turbulent flow is suspected to occur under the observed hydraulic gradients; (2) a single secondary porosity subsurface feature, such as a well-defined laterally extensive underground cave; or (3) a horizontal preferential flow layer consisting of many interconnected voids. In this second case, the input data are effective parameters, such as a very high hydraulic conductivity, representing multiple features. Data preparation is more complex for CFP Mode 1 (CFPM1) than for CFP Mode 2 (CFPM2). Specifically for CFPM1, conduit pipe locations, lengths, diameters, tortuosity, internal roughness, critical Reynolds numbers (NRe), and exchange conductances are required. CFPM1, however, solves the pipe network equations in a matrix that is independent of the porous media equation matrix, which may mitigate numerical instability associated with solution of dual flow components within the same matrix. CFPM2 requires less hydraulic information and knowledge about the specific location and hydraulic properties of conduits, and turbulent flow is approximated by modifying horizontal conductances assembled by the Block-Centered Flow (BCF), Layer-Property Flow (LPF), or Hydrogeologic-Unit Flow Packages (HUF) of MODFLOW-2005. For both conduit flow pipes (CFPM1) and preferential flow layers (CFPM2), critical Reynolds numbers are used to determine if flow is laminar or turbulent. Due to conservation of momentum, flow in a laminar state tends to remain laminar and flow in a turbulent state tends to remain turbulent. This delayed transition between laminar and turbulent flow is introduced in the CFP, which provides an additional benefit of facilitating convergence of the computer algorithm during iterations of transient simulations. Specifically, the user can specify a higher critical Reynolds number to determine when laminar flow within a pipe converts to turbulent flow, and a lower critical Reynolds number for determining when a pipe with turbulent flow switches to laminar flow. With CFPM1, the Hagen-Poiseuille equation is used for laminar flow conditions and the Darcy-Weisbach equation is applied to turbulent flow conditions. With CFPM2, turbulent flow is approximated by reducing the laminar hydraulic conductivity by a nonlinear function of the Reynolds number, once the critical head difference is exceeded. This adjustment approximates the reductions in mean velocity under turbulent ground-water flow conditions.

Techniques and Methods↗

Use of a riverscape-scale model of fundamental physical habitat requirements for freshwater mussels to quantify mussel declines in a mining-contaminated stream: The Big River, Old Lead Belt, Southeast Missouri

The research described in this report was conducted as part of the Natural Resource Damage Assessment and Restoration process in the Big River. Our purpose was to compare habitat features and landscape factors that may be important for the establishment and persistence of mussel concentrations between the Big River and the adjacent Bourbeuse and Meramec rivers, thereby testing their appropriateness as reference systems for establishing baseline expectations of mussel populations in the absence of mining impacts for the Big River. Based on these comparisons and a published model dileneating suitable habitat for freshwater mussels, we establish expected baseline conditions related to suitable freshwater mussel habitat in the Big River to assist injury determination for mining-related impacts in the Southeast Missouri Lead Mining District Natural Resource Damage Assessment case.

Missouri↗

Explaining reported puma-related behaviors and behavioral intentions among northern Arizona residents

Management of pumas in the American West is typified by conflict among stakeholders plausibly rooted in life experiences and worldviews. We used a mail questionnaire to assess demographics, nature-views, puma-related life experiences and behaviors, and support for puma-related policies among residents of northern Arizona. Data from the questionnaire (n = 693 respondents) were used to model behaviors and support for policies. Compared to models based on nature-views and life experiences, those based on demographics had virtually no support from the data. The Utilitarian/Dominionistic nature-view had the strongest effect of any variable in six of seven models, and was associated with firearms and opposition to policies that would limit killing pumas. The Humanistic/Moralistic nature-view was positively associated with non-lethal behaviors and policies in five models. Gender had the strongest effect of any demographic variable. Compared to demographics alone, our results suggest that worldviews provide a more meaningful explanation of reported human behaviors and behavioral intentions regarding pumas.

Arizona↗

Fractures, scarps, faults, and landslides mapped using LiDAR, Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve, Alaska

This map of fractures, scarps, faults, and landslides was completed to identify areas in Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve that may present a landslide-generated tsunami hazard. To address the potential of landslide and tsunami hazards in the park, the National Park Service (NPS) and the US Geological Survey (USGS) partnered to conduct a multi-year hazard assessment of Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve. To produce the map described in this report, we used the newly acquired (2019-2020) light detection and ranging (LiDAR) 0.5 to 1.0 m digital elevation models (DEMs) that cover all the coastal areas of the park and extend up to the ridgetops in places with steep slopes. A bare earth DEM was used to identify and map areas of incipient landslides (i.e., fractures and scarps), fault scarps, and areas where landslides have clearly occurred in the past (i.e., areas where scars and deposits are clearly visible). This map provides a baseline data set that can be used to aid forecasts of where landslides are most likely to occur in the future.

Alaska↗

Hydrogeologic settings and ground-water flow simulations for regional studies of the Transport of Anthropogenic and Natural Contaminants to public-supply wells - Studies begun in 2001

This study of the Transport of Anthropogenic and Natural Contaminants to public-supply wells (TANC study) is being conducted as part of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program and was designed to increase understanding of the most important factors to consider in ground-water vulnerability assessments. The seven TANC studies that began in 2001 used retrospective data and ground-water flow models to evaluate hydrogeologic variables that affect aquifer susceptibility and vulnerability at a regional scale. Ground-water flow characteristics, regional water budgets, pumping-well information, and water-quality data were compiled from existing data and used to develop conceptual models of ground-water conditions for each study area. Steady-state regional ground-water flow models were used to represent the conceptual models, and advective particle-tracking simulations were used to compute areas contributing recharge and traveltimes from recharge to selected public-supply wells. Retrospective data and modeling results were tabulated into a relational database for future analysis. Seven study areas were selected to evaluate a range of hydrogeologic settings and management practices across the Nation: the Salt Lake Valley, Utah; the Eagle Valley and Spanish Springs Valley, Nevada; the San Joaquin Valley, California; the Northern Tampa Bay region, Florida; the Pomperaug River Basin, Connecticut; the Great Miami River Basin, Ohio; and the Eastern High Plains, Nebraska. This Professional Paper Chapter presents the hydrogeologic settings and documents the ground-water flow models for each of the NAWQA TANC regional study areas that began work in 2001. Methods used to compile retrospective data, determine contributing areas of public-supply wells, and characterize oxidation-reduction (redox) conditions also are presented. This Professional Paper Chapter provides the foundation for future susceptibility and vulnerability analyses in the TANC study areas and comparisons among regional aquifer systems. The report is organized in sections. In addition to the introductory section (Section 1) are seven sections that present the hydrogeologic characterization and ground-water flow model documentation for each TANC regional study area (Sections 2 through 8). Abstracts in Sections 2 through 8 provide summaries and major findings for each regional study area.

Professional Paper↗

Montana geoenvironmental explorer

This report is the result of a multidisciplinary effort to assess relative potential for acidic, metal-rich drainage in the State of Montana; evaluate alternative GIS-based modeling strategies; and provide the statewide digital spatial data produced and compiled for the project. The CD is usable on various computer systems (Windows 95, 98, NT, and 2000; MacOS 7.1 or later; many versions of UNIX and Linux; and OS/2). This report and maps are in PDF format, and the data have been provided in various GIS formats. Software for viewing the report and data is included.

Data Series↗