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Development and application of downscaled hydroclimatic predictor variables for use in climate vulnerability and assessment studies

This paper outlines the production of 270-meter grid-scale maps for 14 climate and derivative hydrologic variables for a region that encompasses the State of California and all the streams that flow into it. The paper describes the Basin Characterization Model (BCM), a map-based, mechanistic model used to process the hydrological variables. Three historic and three future time periods of 30 years (1911–1940, 1941–1970, 1971–2000, 2010–2039, 2040–2069, and 2070–2099) were developed that summarize 180 years of monthly historic and future climate values. These comprise a standardized set of fine-scale climate data that were shared with 14 research groups, including the U.S. National Park Service and several University of California groups as part of this project. We present three analyses done with the outputs from the Basin Characterization Model: trends in hydrologic variables over baseline, the most recent 30-year period; a calibration and validation effort that uses measured discharge values from 139 streamgages and compares those to Basin Characterization Model-derived projections of discharge for the same basins; and an assessment of the trends of specific hydrological variables that links historical trend to projected future change under four future climate projections. Overall, increases in potential evapotranspiration dominate other influences in future hydrologic cycles. Increased potential evapotranspiration drives decreasing runoff even under forecasts with increased precipitation, and drives increased climatic water deficit, which may lead to conversion of dominant vegetation types across large parts of the study region as well as have implications for rain-fed agriculture. The potential evapotranspiration is driven by air temperatures, and the Basin Characterization Model permits it to be integrated with a water balance model that can be derived for landscapes and summarized by watershed. These results show the utility of using a process-based model with modules representing different hydrological pathways that can be inter-linked.

California↗

Saline waters in New York State, Long Island, Staten Island and Manhattan, and upstate New York

In connection with studies of the practicability of conversion of saline water to fresh water, the U. S. Geological Survey assembled data on the occurrence, distribution, quantity, and chemical quality of saline waters as of 1955 for a report entitled, "Preliminary survey of the saline water resources of the United States" to be released when completed as a U. S. Geological Survey Water Supply Paper 1374. This report comprises data for New York State. Saline water is defined herein as any mixture of fresh and salt water having more than 1,000 parts per million (ppm) of dissolved solids. In the Nation as a whole there are, of course, all gradations of salinity from 1,000 ppm up to the 30,000 to 35,000 ppm characteristic of sea water, and the even higher salinities of certain natural brines. Sea water, and other water of comparable salinity, will be referred to here as "sea water" or "high-chloride water". This report contains two parts: one for Long Island, Staten Island, and Manhattan, N. Y., and the other for Upstate New York. Figure 1 shows the locations of the places named and important occurrences of saline water in and near Long Island. Tables 1 and 2 list, respectively, well data and chemical analyses for selected wells in Long Island, Staten Island, and Manhattan, N. Y.; tables 3 and 4 list, respectively, well data and chemical analyses for selected wells in Upstate New York. For many samples, only the chloride concentration and not the total dissolved solids has been determined. However, it is safe to assume that the total dissolved solids in natural water are substantially in excess of 1,000 ppm where the chloride is at or nearly at this concentration.

New York↗

Orbital-science investigation: Part O: regional variations in the magnitude of heiligenschein and causal connections

Approximately 35 reasonably good candidates for specialized photometric studies were found during a thorough examination of the frames exposed by the Apollo 15 metric camera. Of these, the majority was of value in heiligenschein studies (refs. 25-36 to 25-38). A few were of value for limited-interval delineation of the photometric functions of crater walls, wherein it is now known from past Apollo Program studies that younger craters have walls much more Lambertian in reflective properties than those of the standard lunar surface (ref. 25-39). It has now become apparent that some difficulty exists in such crater-wall studies with regard to varying the domain of mathematical definition over which such photometric functions are delineated to encompass much more of phase-angle-brightness-longitude space than has already been carried out Nearer to zero-phase angle, the brightness of the illuminated wall becomes so intense compared with the general luminance of the surrounding lunar terrain that it approaches the saturated region of the D /log E curve of the photograph where D is density and E is exposure. Conversely, for phase angles approaching 180°, most of the illuminated wall is seen so obliquely that the image size is small and reliable photometry is difficult. Also, difficulties inherent in the methodology exist—the descriptive geometry used to extract configurations begins to fail as craters become either too old or are imaged too near a vertical view Nevertheless, some useful candidates for crater-wall studies have been found in the Apollo 15 data, although their analysis is too lengthy for incorporation in this preliminary report.

Book chapter↗

Bioenergy potential of the United States constrained by satellite observations of existing productivity

Background/Question/Methods Currently, the United States (U.S.) supplies roughly half the world’s biofuel (secondary bioenergy), with the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA) stipulating an additional three-fold increase in annual production by 2022. Implicit in such energy targets is an associated increase in annual biomass demand (primary bioenergy) from roughly 2.9 to 7.4 exajoules (EJ; 1018 Joules). Yet, many of the factors used to estimate future bioenergy potential are relatively unresolved, bringing into question the practicality of the EISA’s ambitious bioenergy targets. Here, our objective was to constrain estimates of primary bioenergy potential (PBP) for the conterminous U.S. using satellite-derived net primary productivity (NPP) data (measured for every 1 km2 of the 7.2 million km2 of vegetated land in the conterminous U.S) as the most geographically explicit measure of terrestrial growth capacity. Results/Conclusions We show that the annual primary bioenergy potential (PBP) of the conterminous U.S. realistically ranges from approximately 5.9 (± 1.4) to 22.2 (± 4.4) EJ, depending on land use. The low end of this range represents current harvest residuals, an attractive potential energy source since no additional harvest land is required. In contrast, the high end represents an annual harvest over an additional 5.4 million km2 or 75% of vegetated land in the conterminous U.S. While we identify EISA energy targets as achievable, our results indicate that meeting such targets using current technology would require either an 80% displacement of current croplands or the conversion of 60% of total rangelands. Our results differ from previous evaluations in that we use high resolution, satellite-derived NPP as an upper-envelope constraint on bioenergy potential, which removes the need for extrapolation of plot-level observed yields over large spatial areas. Establishing realistically constrained estimates of bioenergy potential seems a critical next step for effectively incorporating bioenergy into future U.S. energy portfolios.

Conference Paper↗

Mineralogic and textural relations in deeply buried rocks of the Simpson Group (Middle Ordovician)--implications in diagenesis and petroleum geology

The mineral composition and petrography of sandstones, shales, carbonates, and intermediate lithologies were determined on 112 core samples of the Middle Ordovician Simpson Group in the Sunray DX Parker No. 1 Mazur well, Grady County, Oklahoma. Core was recovered from present depths of about 15,900-17,200 ft and included all or parts of the Bromide, Tulip Creek, McLish, Oil Creek, and Joins Formations. The bulk-rock mineral composition of Simpson Group rocks is diverse. The mean weighted composition of 50 sandstone samples is 66% quartz, 14% clay, and 18% carbonate, as determined by X-ray powder diffraction (XRD). Some sandstones from the Oil Creek and Tulip Creek Formations contain as much as 96% quartz. These quartz-rich sandstones were cemented early by silica. Feldspar averages 2%; some sandstones from the McLish Formation contain as much as 15% feldspar. Potassium feldspar is commonly more abundant than plagioclase; potassium feldspar overgrowths are found in some of the sandstones. Most of the shales are clay-rich and quartz-poor, averaging about 85% clay minerals, 7% quartz, and 3% feldspar, by weight, as determined by XRD. Carbonate, fluorapatite, and pyrite are present in variable amounts. Such high clay/quartz ratios are not characteristic of shales and suggest that silica has been expelled by diagenetic processes during burial. The main clay mineral in the Simpson Group at these depths is illite, although iron-rich chlorite is locally concentrated in sandstones. Illite typically makes up >90 wt. % of the clay minerals in sandstones and >95 wt. % of those in shale and carbonate. Total clay content, determined from XRD, correlates closely with total gamma-ray intensity from geophysical logs, because illite is the primary potassium-bearing phase in these deeply buried rocks. Therefore, the gamma-ray log is a good indicator of "shaliness" in potential Simpson reservoirs at similar depths. Much of the carbonate was introduced into the sandstones during burial as calcite, dolomite, or ankerite cement. Early iron-free calcite is commonly replaced by iron-bearing calcite, dolomite, or ankerite. Sandstones and carbonate rocks also contain rhombic dolomite. Many of the dolomite rhombs contain overgrowths of ferroan dolomite or ankerite, as evidenced by staining. Ankerite cementation is later and less selective than earlier dolomite and commonly replaces earlier carbonate or silica cements. Dolomite commonly replaces detrital clay and calcite. Spatial and textural relations suggest that the conversion of smectite to illite contributed, in part, to the formation of dolomite and ankerite cements. Scanning electron miscroscopy reveals that much of the diagenetic illite occurs as tabular fibers in pores or as pseudomorphic intergrowths after smectite. Most chlorite in sandstones is authigenic and occurs as a pore-lining cement or as a pseudomorphic replacement after kaolinite. Secondary porosity, formed mainly from the dissolution of intergranular carbonate cements, is best developed in sandstones from the Oil Creek and Tulip Creek Formations.

Oklahoma↗

Descriptions and characterizations of water-level data and groundwater flow for the Brewster Boulevard and Castle Hayne Aquifer Systems and the Tarawa Terrace Aquifer

This supplement of Chapter A (Supplement 3) summarizes results of analyses of groundwater-level data and describes corresponding elements of groundwater flow such as vertical hydraulic gradients useful for groundwater-flow model calibration. Field data as well as theoretical concepts indicate that potentiometric surfaces within the study area are shown to resemble to a large degree a subdued replica of surface topography. Consequently, precipitation that infiltrates to the water table flows laterally from highland to lowland areas and eventually discharges to streams such as Northeast and Wallace Creeks and New River. Vertically downward hydraulic gradients occur in highland areas resulting in the transfer of groundwater from shallow relatively unconfined aquifers to underlying confined or semi-confined aquifers. Conversely, in the vicinity of large streams such as Wallace and Frenchs Creeks, diffuse upward leakage occurs from underlying confined or semi-confined aquifers. Point water-level data indicating water-table altitudes, water-table altitudes estimated using a regression equation, and estimates of stream levels determined from a digital elevation model (DEM) and topographic maps were used to estimate a predevelopment water-table surface in the study area. Approximate flow lines along hydraulic gradients are shown on a predevelopment potentiometric surface map and extend from highland areas where potentiometric levels are greatest toward streams such as Wallace Creek and Northeast Creek. The distribution of potentiometric levels and corresponding groundwater-flow directions conform closely to related descriptions of the conceptual model.

North Carolina↗

ShakeMap Atlas 2.0: an improved suite of recent historical earthquake ShakeMaps for global hazard analyses and loss model calibration

We introduce the second version of the U.S. Geological Survey ShakeMap Atlas, which is an openly-available compilation of nearly 8,000 ShakeMaps of the most significant global earthquakes between 1973 and 2011. This revision of the Atlas includes: (1) a new version of the ShakeMap software that improves data usage and uncertainty estimations; (2) an updated earthquake source catalogue that includes regional locations and finite fault models; (3) a refined strategy to select prediction and conversion equations based on a new seismotectonic regionalization scheme; and (4) vastly more macroseismic intensity and ground-motion data from regional agencies All these changes make the new Atlas a self-consistent, calibrated ShakeMap catalogue that constitutes an invaluable resource for investigating near-source strong ground-motion, as well as for seismic hazard, scenario, risk, and loss-model development. To this end, the Atlas will provide a hazard base layer for PAGER loss calibration and for the Earthquake Consequences Database within the Global Earthquake Model initiative.

Conference Paper↗

Mapping wetlands and surface water in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America: Chapter 16

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) is one of the most highly productive wetland regions in the world. Prairie Pothole wetlands serve as a primary feeding and breeding habitat for more than one-half of North America’s waterfowl population, as well as a variety of songbirds, waterbirds, shorebirds, and other wildlife. During the last century, extensive land conversions from grassland with wetlands to cultivated cropland and grazed pastureland segmented and reduced wetland habitat. Inventorying and characterizing remaining wetland habitat is critical for the management of wetland ecosystem services. Remote sensing technologies are often utilized for mapping and monitoring wetlands. This chapter presents background specific to the PPR and discusses approaches employed in mapping its wetlands before presenting a case study.

Prairie Pothole Region↗

USGS Nonindigenous Aquatic Species database with a focus on the introduced fishes of the lower Tennessee and Cumberland drainages

The Nonindigenous Aquatic Species (NAS) database (http://nas.er.usgs.gov) functions as a national repository and clearinghouse for occurrence data for introduced species within the United States. Included is locality information on over 1,100 species of vertebrates, invertebrates, and vascular plants introduced as early as 1850. Taxa include foreign (exotic) species and species native to North America that have been transported outside of their natural range. Locality data are obtained from published and unpublished literature, state, federal and local monitoring programs, museum accessions, on-line databases, websites, professional communications and on-line reporting forms. The NAS web site provides immediate access to new occurrence records through a real-time interface with the NAS database. Visitors to the web site are presented with a set of pre-defined queries that generate lists of species according to state or hydrologic basin of interest. Fact sheets, distribution maps, and information on new occurrences are updated as new records and information become available. The NAS database allows resource managers to learn of new introductions reported in their region or nearby regions, improving response time. Conversely, managers are encouraged to report their observations of new occurrences to the NAS database so information can be disseminated to other managers, researchers, and the public. In May 2004, the NAS database incorporated an Alert System to notify registered users of new introductions as part of a national early detection/rapid response system. Users can register to receive alerts based on geographic or taxonomic criteria. The NAS database was used to identify 23 fish species introduced into the lower Tennessee and Cumberland drainages. Most of these are sport fish stocked to support fisheries, but the list also includes accidental and illegal introductions such as Asian Carps, clupeids, various species popular in the aquarium trade, and Atlantic Needlefish ( Strongylura marina ) that was introduced via the newly-constructed Tennessee-Tombigbee Canal.

Cumberland River;Tennessee River↗

Salamander colonization of Chase Lake, Stutsman County, North Dakota

Salt concentrations in lakes are dynamic. In the western United States, water diversions have caused significant declines in lake levels resulting in increased salinity, placing many aquatic species at risk (Galat and Robinson 1983, Beutel et al. 2001). Severe droughts can have similar effects on salt concentrations and aquatic communities (Swanson et al. 2003). Conversely, large inputs of water can dilute salt concentrations and contribute to community shifts (Euliss et al. 2004).

North Dakota↗

Park Break: collaborative opportunity established for graduate students

Among the many topics discussed during the 2007-2008 George Wright Society (GWS) board meetings was the subject of how to inspire students seeking careers in science and natural resource management to consider the Department of Interior (DOI) in general, and the National Park Service (NPS) and the US Geological Survey (USGS) in particular, as good options for future employment. Board members participating in these discussions included Suzette Kimball, now acting director of USGS, and Gillian Browser, now a research scientists with Colorado State University, who envisioned a program that would offer an alternative to the break from classes that universities typically offer students in early spring. Since those initial discussions among the GWS board members, Park Break sessions have been held in eleven different NPS sites across the country. Each session has sponsored six to eight graduate students in various stages off their university programs for a week-long seminar focused on a specific theme relevant to the host park, such as conversation policy and climate change. Sessions have varied in format but all generally have been composed of a week of field and classroom activity with participation from local, state, and national experts.

The George Wright Forum↗

Predicting the effects of climate change on ecosystems and wildlife habitat in northwest Alaska

We used a modeling framework and a recent ecological land classification and land cover map to predict how ecosystems and wildlife habitat in northwest Alaska might change in response to increasing temperature. Our results suggest modest increases in forest and tall shrub ecotypes in Northwest Alaska by the end of this century thereby increasing habitat for forest-dwelling and shrub-using birds and mammals. Conversely, we predict declines in several more open low shrub, tussock, and meadow ecotypes favored by many waterbird, shorebird, and small mammal species.

Alaska↗

Satellites monitor Atlanta regional development

Since the adoption of a Regional Development Plan in 1975, the Atlanta Regional Commission has investigated methods for monitoring regional development patterns in a periodic, efficient manner. A promising approach appears to be the use of Landsat satellite data. In cooperation with the Earth Resources Observation Systems (EROS) Data Center, the commission used machine processing of digital temporal overlays of Landsat data collected in 1972, 1974 and 1976 to detect land use and land cover changes in the Atlanta metropolitan area. Results of the analysis revealed the conversion of forested and open space areas to residential, commercial and industrial land use in the urban-rural fringe zone from 1972 to 1974 and from 1974 to 1976. The study indicated that a land use and land cover change-detection program may be used to revise small-area forecasts of land use, population and employment made by planning models.

Atlanta, Georgia↗

Overview of the land analysis system (LAS)

The Land Analysis System (LAS) is a fully integrated digital analysis system designed to support remote sensing, image processing, and geographic information systems research. LAS is being developed through a cooperative effort between the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Space Flight Center and the U. S. Geological Survey Earth Resources Observation Systems (EROS) Data Center. LAS has over 275 analysis modules capable to performing input and output, radiometric correction, geometric registration, signal processing, logical operations, data transformation, classification, spatial analysis, nominal filtering, conversion between raster and vector data types, and display manipulation of image and ancillary data. LAS is currently implant using the Transportable Applications Executive (TAE). While TAE was designed primarily to be transportable, it still provides the necessary components for a standard user interface, terminal handling, input and output services, display management, and intersystem communications. With TAE the analyst uses the same interface to the processing modules regardless of the host computer or operating system. LAS was originally implemented at EROS on a Digital Equipment Corporation computer system under the Virtual Memorial System operating system with DeAnza displays and is presently being converted to run on a Gould Power Node and Sun workstation under the Berkeley System Distribution UNIX operating system.

Conference Paper↗

Assessment of acreage and vegetation change in Florida's Big Bend tidal wetlands using satellite imagery

Fluctuations in sea level and impending development on the west coast of Florida have aroused concern for the relatively pristine tidal marshes of the Big Bend. Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) images for 1986 and 1995 are processed and evaluated for signs of change. The images cover 250 km of Florida's Big Bend Gulf Coast, encompassing 160,000 acres of tidal marshes. Change is detected using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and land cover classification. The imagery shows negligible net loss or gain in the marsh over the 9-year period. However, regional changes in biomass are apparent and are due to natural disturbances such as low winter temperatures, fire, storm surge, and the conversion of forest to march. Within the marsh, the most prominent changes in NDVI and in land cover result from the recovery of mangroves from freezes, a decline of transitional upland vegetation, and susceptibility of the marsh edge and interior to variations in tidal flooding.

Florida↗

Valuation of rangeland ecosystem services

Economic valuation lends itself well to the anthropocentric orientation of ecosystem services. An economic perspective on ecosystems portrays them as natural assets providing a flow of goods and services valuable to individuals and society collectively. A few examples include the purification of drinking water, reduced risk from flooding and other extreme events, pollination of agricultural crops, climate regulation, and recreation opportunities from plant and animal habitat maintenance, among many others. Once these goods and services are identified and quantified, they can be monetized to complete the valuation process. The monetization of ecosystem goods and services (in the form of dollars) provides a common metric that allows for cross-comparison of attributes and evaluation of differing ecological scenarios. Complicating the monetization process is the fact that most of these goods and services are public and non-market in nature; meaning they are non-rival and non-exclusive and are typically not sold in a traditional market setting where monetary values are revealed. Instead, one must employ non-market valuation techniques, with primary valuation methods typically being very time and resource consuming, intimidating to non-economists, and often impractical. For these reasons, benefit transfer methods have gained popularity. This methodology harnesses the primary collection results of existing studies to make inferences about the economic values of non-market goods and services at an alternative policy site (in place and/or in time). For instance, if a primary valuation study on oak reestablishment on rangelands in southern California yielded a value of $30 per-acre associated with water regulation, this result can be transferred, with some adjustments, to say something about the value of an acre of oaks on rangelands in northern portions of the state. The economic valuation of rangeland ecosystem services has many roles. Economic values may be used as input into analyzing the costs and benefits associated with policies being proposed, or possibly already implemented. For example, with monetized values acting as a common metric, one could compare the 'benefits' of converting a rangeland ecosystem for commercial development (perhaps estimated at the market value of the developed land) with the foregone ecosystem service values (in addition to any land income lost) resulting from that land conversion. Similarly, ecosystem service values can be used to determine the level of return on an investment. rhis is a primary objective for private land conservation organizations who typically have very limited resources. Ecosystem service valuation can also have a role in damage assessments from incidents that require compensation such as oil spills. Additionally, valuation can be very informative when investigating regulatory programs that trade ecological assets such as wetland mitigation programs. Typically these programs are based simply on an 'acre for acre' criterion, and do not take into consideration varying welfare values associated with that ecosystem. Lastly, and most fundamental, ecosystem service valuation serves as a recognition tool for people of all backgrounds. Identifying and valuing ecosystem goods and services on rangelands brings to light the value these natural assets have to human welfare that often remain hidden do to their public and non-market attributes. This type of recognition is vital to the preservation of rangeland ecosystems in the future and the many ecological benefits they provide.

Conference Paper↗

A spatially referenced regression model (SPARROW) for suspended sediment in streams of the Conterminous U.S.

Suspended sediment has long been recognized as an important contaminant affecting water resources. Besides its direct role in determining water clarity, bridge scour and reservoir storage, sediment serves as a vehicle for the transport of many binding contaminants, including nutrients, trace metals, semi-volatile organic compounds, a nd numerous pesticides (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2000a). Recent efforts to addr ess water-quality concerns through the Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) process have iden tified sediment as the single most prevalent cause of impairment in the Nation’s streams a nd rivers (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2000b). Moreover, sediment has been identified as a medium for the tran sport and sequestration of organic carbon, playing a potentia lly important role in understa nding sources and sinks in the global carbon budget (Stallard, 1998). A comprehensive understanding of sediment fate a nd transport is considered essential to the design and implementation of effective plans for sediment management (Osterkamp and others, 1998, U.S. General Accounting Office, 1990). An exte nsive literature addr essing the problem of quantifying sediment transport has produced a nu mber of methods for estimating its flux (see Cohn, 1995, and Robertson and Roerish, 1999, for us eful surveys). The accuracy of these methods is compromised by uncertainty in the concentration measurements and by the highly episodic nature of sediment movement, particul arly when the methods are applied to smaller basins. However, for annual or decadal flux es timates, the methods are generally reliable if calibrated with extended periods of data (Robertson and Roerish, 1999). A substantial literature also supports the Universal Soil Loss Equation (U SLE) (Soil Conservation Service, 1983), an engineering method for estimating sheet and rill erosion, although the empirical credentials of the USLE have recently been questioned (Tri mble and Crosson, 2000). Conversely, relatively little direct evidence is available concerning the fate of sediment. The common practice of quantifying sediment fate with a sediment deliv ery ratio, estimated from a simple empirical relation with upstream basin area, does not artic ulate the relative importance of individual storage sites within a basin (Wolman, 1977). Rates of sediment deposition in reservoirs and flood plains can be determined from empirical measurement s , but only a limited number of sites have been monitored, and net rates of deposition or loss from other potential sinks and sources is largely unknown (Stallard, 1998). In particular, little is known about how much sediment loss from fields ultimately makes its way to stream channels, and how much sediment is subsequently stored in or lost from th e streambed (Meade and Parker, 1985, Trimble and Crosson, 2000). This paper reports on recent progress made to a ddress empirically the question of sediment fate and transport on a national scale. The model pres ented here is based on the SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attr ibutes (SPARROW) methodology, fi rst used to estimate the distribution of nutrients in str eams and rivers of the United Stat es, and subsequently shown to describe land and stream processes affecting the delivery of nutrients (Smith and others, 1997, Alexander and others, 2000, Preston and Brakeb ill, 1999). The model makes use of numerous spatial datasets, available at the national level, to explain long-term sediment water-quality conditions in major streams and rivers throughou t the United States. Sediment sources are identified using sediment erosion rates from the National Resources I nventory (NRI) (Natural Resources Conservation Service, 2000) and apportioned over the landscape according to 30- meter resolution land-use information from th e National Land Cover Data set (NLCD) (U.S. Geological Survey, 2000a). More than 76,000 reservoirs from the National Inventory of Dams (NID) (U.S. Army Corps of Engin eers, 1996) are identified as pot ential sediment sinks. Other, non-anthropogenic sources and sinks are identified using soil in formation from the State Soil Survey Geographic (STATSGO) data base (Schwarz and Alexander, 1995) and spatial coverages representing surficial rock t ype and vegetative cover. The SPA RROW model empirically relates these diverse spatial datasets to estimates of long-term, mean annual sediment flux computed from concentration and flow measurements co llected over the period 1985 -95 from more than 400 monitoring stations maintained by the Na tional Stream Quality Accounting Network (Alexander and others, 1998), the National Wa ter Quality Assessment Program, and U.S. Geological Survey District offices (Turcios and Gray, in press). Th e calibrated model is used to estimate sediment flux for over 60,000 stream segments included in the River Reach File 1 (RF1) stream network (Alexander and others, 1999). SPARROW uses statis tical methods to calibrate a simple, structural model of riverine water quality, one that imposes mass ba lance in accounting for changes in contaminant flux. As applied here, the mass-balance approach facilitates the interpretation of model results in terms of physical processes affecting sediment transport, and makes possible the estimation of various rates of sediment generation and loss associated with stream channels and features of the landscape. The statistical approach provides a basi s for assessing the error of these inferred rates and of the error in extrapolated estimates of sediment flux made for streams in the RF1 network. An important implication of the holistic modeling approach adopted in this analysis is that estimates of sediment production and loss ar e based on, and therefore consistent with, measurements of in-stream flux. Other ancillary information, such as direct measurements of long-term sediment storage and release from rese rvoirs (Steffen, 1996), is incorporated into the analysis by specifying additional equations expl aining these ancillary variables. The imposition of cross-equation constraints affords this info rmation a statistically consistent weight in explaining in-stream sediment flux. Thus, the me thodology described here represents a general framework for synthesizing a wide spectrum of available information relevant to the understanding of sediment fate and transport.

Conterminous United States↗

USGS Tampa Bay Pilot Study

Many of the nation's estuaries have been environmentally stressed since the turn of the 20th century and will continue to be impacted in the future. Tampa Bay, one the Gulf of Mexico's largest estuaries, exemplifies the threats that our estuaries face (EPA Report 2001, Tampa Bay Estuary Program-Comprehensive Conservation and Management Plan (TBEP-CCMP)). More than 2 million people live in the Tampa Bay watershed, and the population constitutes to grow. Demand for freshwater resources, conversion of undeveloped areas to resident and industrial uses, increases in storm-water runoff, and increased air pollution from urban and industrial sources are some of the known human activities that impact Tampa Bay. Beginning on 2001, additional anthropogenic modifications began in Tampa Bat including construction of an underwater gas pipeline and a desalinization plant, expansion of existing ports, and increased freshwater withdrawal from three major tributaries to the bay. In January of 2001, the Tampa Bay Estuary Program (TBEP) and its partners identifies a critical need for participation from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in providing multidisciplinary expertise and a regional-scale, integrated science approach to address complex scientific research issue and critical scientific information gaps that are necessary for continued restoration and preservation of Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay stakeholders identified several critical science gaps for which USGS expertise was needed (Yates et al. 2001). These critical science gaps fall under four topical categories (or system components): 1) water and sediment quality, 2) hydrodynamics, 3) geology and geomorphology, and 4) ecosystem structure and function. Scientists and resource managers participating in Tampa Bay studies recognize that it is no longer sufficient to simply examine each of these estuarine system components individually, Rather, the interrelation among system components must be understood to develop conceptual and predictive modeling tools for effective ecosystem adaptive management. As a multidisciplinary organization, the USGS possesses the capability of developing and coordinating an integrated science strategy for estuarine research founded on partnerships and collaborative efforts, multidisciplinary teams of scientists, and integrated field work, data analysis and interpretation, and product development. The primary role of the USGS in Tamps Bay research was defined with our partners based upon this capability to address estuarine issues using an integrated science approach with a regional perspective and within a national context to complement the numerous ongoing scien efforts by state and local agencies that address local issues within Tamp Bay. Six primary components of the USGS Tamp Bay Study address critical gaps within each of the the four estuarine system components and focus on: 1.) Examining how natural and man-made physical changes affect ecosystem health through mapping and modeling. 2.) Identifying sources and quality of groundwater, surface water, and sediment, 3.) Identifying sources and quality of groundwater, surface water, and sediment, 4.) Assessing the natural and man-made changes affecting wetland health and restoration, 5.) Identifying and measuring the impact of urbanization on seafloor habitats, Providing a web-based digital information management system of information for scientists and the public, including a system that supports the work of those officials who must make decisions that affect the state of the bay. The Tampa Bay Study is in its sixth year and will continue through September 2007. This paper presents a non-inclusive summary of key findings associated with the six primary project components listed above. Component 4 (above) is described in detail in the following chapter 13. More information on the Tampa Bay Study is available from our on-line digital information system for the Tampa Bay Study at http://gulfsci.usgs.gov.

Florida↗