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At least 1,747 records · Page 97Linked to original sources
USGS2022

Local populations of eastern oyster from Louisiana differ in low salinity tolerance

Eastern oysters Crassostrea virginica support a critical commercial industry and provide many ecosystem services to coastal estuaries yet are currently threatened by changing estuarine conditions. A changing climate and the effects of river and coastal management are altering freshwater inflows into productive oyster areas, causing more frequent and extreme salinity exposure. Although eastern oysters are tolerant to a wide range of salinity means and variations, more frequent and extreme exposure to low salinity (<5‰) impacts oyster populations and aquaculture operations. This study assessed four Louisiana eastern oyster stocks to explore population-specific responses to low-salinity exposure. Hatchery-produced progeny (10–25 mm) were deployed in baskets kept off-bottom on longline systems in a low-salinity (mean ± 1 standard error of the mean daily salinity = 8.7 ± 0.2‰; range = 1.2–19.0‰) and a moderate-salinity (16.8 ± 0.3‰; 4.8–30.0‰) environment for 1 year, beginning in December 2019, with growth and mortality determined monthly. Significant differences in cumulative mortality between stocks at the end of the study were found at the low-salinity site, with the greatest increase in cumulative mortality occurring mid-July to mid-August. Mortality differences between stocks suggest that some eastern oyster populations (i.e., stocks) may be better suited to low salinity or low-salinity events than others. This difference may be attributed to similarity between site of origin and grow-out site conditions and/or to greater salinity variability and therefore higher phenotypic plasticity in some eastern oyster populations compared with others. The identification of oyster stocks able to survive under extreme low-salinity conditions may facilitate the development of “low-salinity-tolerant” broodstock to support aquaculture in areas experiencing and predicted to experience low-salinity events.

Louisiana↗
USGS2018

Population characteristics and management of lentic populations of nonnative Burbot in the Green River system, Wyoming

Fishes introduced outside of their native distributions have the potential to negatively affect their recipient ecosystems. Since their illegal introduction into the Green River, Wyoming, in the 1990s, Burbot Lota lota have been sampled in lotic and lentic environments throughout the Green River system where they pose a threat to native fishes and valuable sport fisheries. In response to this invasion, managers of the Green River have begun to explore the efficacy of a suppression effort targeting Burbot. This study sought to the describe population dynamics of Burbot in the lentic portions of the Green River system and compare with Burbot population dynamics in the Green River. We also sought to evaluate potential management scenarios for a suppression program. Burbot for this study were collected from Fontenelle and Flaming Gorge reservoirs in October and November 2016. Growth rates of Burbot in the lentic portion of the system were higher than for fish in the Green River. Total annual mortality rates of Burbot were approximately 10% lower in reservoirs (33%) than for fish in the Green River. Additionally, lentic Burbot matured earlier than lotic Burbot. An age-structured population model indicated that Burbot populations were growing rapidly (λ = 1.18) in the study reservoirs. Annual exploitation of juvenile Burbot would need to reach 7%. Exploitation of mature Burbot would need to increase to 33% or greater (A ≥ 57%) to effectively suppress Burbot in this system. Sensitivity analysis suggested that mortality of age-1 and age-2 Burbot had the greatest influence on population growth rate. However, due to difficulties in collecting juvenile Burbot in the system, focusing removal effort on mature Burbot may be the most realistic option for suppressing Burbot populations in the Green River system.

Wyoming↗
USGS2019

Growth of hatchery‐reared chinook salmon in Lakes Michigan and Huron exhibits limited spatial variation but Is temporally linked to alewife abundance

Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha were introduced into Lakes Michigan and Huron in the 1960s to diversify recreational fisheries and reduce overabundant, nonnative Alewife Alosa pseudoharengus. Alewife remain the primary prey of Chinook Salmon but have experienced substantial declines in abundance due to reduced food resources and salmonine predation pressure. The movements of Chinook Salmon have been linked to the density and spatial distribution of Alewife, but spatial patterns in Chinook Salmon growth have not been well documented and the temporal relationship between growth and Alewife density has not been evaluated during the current period of low Alewife abundance. We evaluated spatial and temporal variation in growth of Chinook Salmon in Lake Michigan and the U.S. waters of Lake Huron and explored linkages with Alewife density. Von Bertalanffy growth parameters were generally similar for recaptured coded‐wire‐tagged Chinook Salmon from different stocking locations and different recovery locations. Only a few small differences among stocking and recovery regions were evident, with regions divided into two subtly different groups with shared growth parameters. The small regional differences may be attributable to unique habitat and/or stocking characteristics of specific regions. In Lake Michigan average Chinook Salmon length at age also varied across years and was tightly coupled with annual lakewide densities of age‐1 and older Alewife, suggesting that Chinook Salmon growth from 2012 to 2016 was constrained by Alewife density. Our findings are consistent with evidence of lakewide movements associated with foraging and support continued management of Chinook Salmon in Lake Michigan as a single population. Furthermore, similar growth in Chinook Salmon from Lakes Michigan and Huron corroborates evidence that Chinook Salmon move from U.S. waters of Lake Huron to Lake Michigan to feed and reinforces the recent decision to include most fish stocked in northwestern Lake Huron in the Lake Michigan population when managing for predator–prey balance.

Lake Michigan, Lake Huron↗
USGS2019

Semiautomated process for enumeration of fishes from recreational-grade side-scan sonar imagery

The use of hydroacoustic techniques is increasing as scientists search for less invasive ways to monitor fish populations, and using recreational side‐scan sonar (SSS) imagery for monitoring has become more common in aquatic resource management over the last 15 years due in part to its low cost and user‐friendly interface. The time‐consuming nature of manually counting fish targets has limited the use of the data that is collected by these systems in research or management contexts. To reduce the time and effort that is required to enumerate acoustic targets that are presumed to be fish, we developed a semiautomated process that rapidly quantifies targets from recreational SSS imagery by using an open‐source image processing software. Perceived fish targets were enumerated using a set of macroinstructions that performed similarly to manual enumeration by three experienced assessors. This method reduced variation that arises from individual assessors and eliminated the prohibitive time constraints that are associated with manual processing. Herein, we describe how our semiautomated process could be used in fisheries management contexts after further research and development of sampling methods. Future research will focus on field validation, quantifying relative abundance, testing across a broader range of environmental conditions, and exploring other applications for fisheries management.N

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗
USGS2019

Morphological identification of Bighead Carp, Silver Carp, and Grass Carp eggs using random forests machine learning classification

Visual identification of fish eggs is difficult and unreliable due to a lack of information on the morphological egg characteristics of many species. We used random forests machine learning to predict the identity of genetically identified Bighead Carp Hypophthalmichthys nobilis , Grass Carp Ctenopharyngodon idella , and Silver Carp H. molitrix eggs based on egg morphometric and environmental characteristics. Family, genus, and species taxonomic-level random forests models were explored to assess the performance and accuracy of the predictor variables. The egg characteristics of Bighead Carp, Grass Carp, and Silver Carp were similar, and they were difficult to distinguish from one another. When combined into a single invasive carp class, the random forests models were ≥ 97% accurate at identifying invasive carp eggs, with a ≤5% false positive rate. Egg membrane diameter was the most important predictive variable, but the addition of ten other variables resulted in a 98% success rate for identifying invasive carp eggs from 26 other upper Mississippi River basin species. Our results revealed that a combination of morphometric and environmental measurements can be used to identify invasive carp eggs. Similar machine learning approaches could be used to identify the eggs of other fishes. These results will help managers more easily and quickly assess invasive carp reproduction.

Iowa↗
USGS2020

Does fecundity of cisco vary in the Upper Great Lakes?

Fecundity of fish is influenced by several factors, including body length, condition, population density, and environmental conditions. It follows that fecundity of fish populations can exhibit spatiotemporal variability; thus, periodic quantification of length–fecundity relationships is important for management. We hypothesized that average fecundity of Cisco Coregonus artedi in the upper Laurentian Great Lakes would be lower in Lake Superior than in Lakes Huron and Michigan. The trophic status of these lakes recently converged, but Lakes Huron and Michigan currently support lower Cisco densities; thus, we expected that they would reach larger sizes and have greater fecundity owing to lower intraspecific competition. Ovaries were collected from prespawn Cisco during 2008–2010 to test this hypothesis. We also compared length–fecundity relationships for 2008–2010 to those of precollapse (1930s–1950s) populations to explore how relationships have changed. Average fecundity of Cisco during 2008–2010 was lower in Lake Superior compared to Lakes Huron and Michigan; length–fecundity relationships in the latter two lakes did not vary significantly, so they were combined. Body condition was highest in Lakes Huron and Michigan. We used otoliths to determine age and found that body condition was domed shaped with respect to age in Lakes Huron and Superior. There were no females older than age 5 in our samples from Lake Michigan because that population was just beginning to recover from very low levels. Females of intermediate age had the highest fecundities in both Lake Huron (ages 7–13) and Lake Superior (ages 8–18). We hypothesize that differences in body morphometry may also influence fecundity, with deeper‐bodied C. artedi albus , the predominant form in Lakes Michigan and Huron, having greater fecundity than shallower‐bodied C. artedi artedi in Lake Superior. Moreover, varying Cisco diets and seasonal movement patterns across lakes may have also contributed to differences. Females in Lakes Superior and Michigan are currently more fecund than their precollapse counterparts.

Great Lakes↗
USGS2021

Evaluating fish rescue as a drought adaptation strategy using a life cycle modeling approach for imperiled coho salmon

Projected intensification of drought as a result of climate change may reduce the capacity of streams to rear fish, exacerbating the challenge of recovering salmonid populations listed under the Endangered Species Act. Without management intervention, some stocks will likely go extinct as stream drying and fragmentation reduce juvenile survival to unsustainable levels. To offset drought‐related mortality, fish rescue programs have proliferated, whereby juvenile salmonids are captured and transferred to off‐site rearing facilities. However, the efficacy of this potential conservation tool remains poorly understood. We developed a life cycle model to examine the implications of fish rescue on the abundance of Coho Salmon Oncorhynchus kisutch across serial life stages. The simulation model examines scenarios with varying quantities of rescued fish, time in captivity, drought severity, and reduced smolt‐to‐adult return rates. Our results indicate that fish rescue can increase the abundance of adults and lower extinction risk, particularly for fish held in captivity for a full year. However, fish rescue can also decrease the abundance of adults and increase extinction risk if fish are held only for summer and there is limited winter habitat. We found that when fish rescue did increase returns, it functioned more like a stock enhancement program than a drought mitigation tool and it would likely lead to consecutive generations of captive rearing, which has been shown to have negative effects on fitness. We translated our model into an R Shiny application ( https://shiny.wdfw‐fish.us/CohoPopulationDynamics/ ) that allows users to explore how fish rescue affects Coho Salmon population dynamics through customized parameterization of the model to represent different systems or different assumptions about the effects of fish rescue.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗
USGS2020

Application of genetic stock identification and parentage-based tagging in a mixed-stock recreational chinook salmon fishery

Genetic methods can guide and improve the management of recreational mixed-stock fisheries by informing stock-specific estimates of harvest. We applied genetic stock identification and parentage-based tagging to a recreational Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha fishery in the Columbia River to illustrate the value of genetic analysis in management. We sampled landed catch in 2017 and 2018, assigned the fish to genetic reporting groups, explored temporal trends in harvest composition within and between seasons, and assessed the accuracy and precision of genetic methods against estimates from conventional tagging methodology. The genetic stock identification and parentage-based tagging produced concordant stock assignments, and the harvest composition estimates were validated with independent data. High assignment rates, relative to expended sampling effort, and precise harvest composition estimates with adequate sample sizes demonstrate that both genetic methods can be complementary, effective tools in advancing harvest assessment and recreational fisheries management. The success of genetic stock identification and parentage-based tagging supports the expanded application of genetics to similar fisheries, potentially alongside existing or emerging assessment methods, and guides future improvements in data collection and analysis.

Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2020

Assessment of two techniques for remediation of lacustrine rocky reef spawning habitat

Rocky reef habitats in lacustrine systems constitute important areas for lithophilic‐spawning fishes. Interstitial spaces created by the structure of rocky reefs form microenvironments where incubating embryos and juvenile fish are potentially protected from predators and physical displacement. However, if interstitial spaces are filled or blocked by sediment or biofouling, the reef structure may lose these benefits. Common practices to restore reef habitat include augmentation of existing reef structures or construction of new reefs, though these practices can be costly. We explored an alternative approach for reef remediation. In 2018, we developed two benthic sled cleaning devices that used either propulsion or pressurized water jets and were towed behind a small vessel to clean reefs. We used the devices to clean two impaired natural rocky reefs in Saginaw Bay, Lake Huron. We indexed effectiveness of cleaning by measured changes in substrate relative hardness before and after cleaning. A biological response to reef cleaning was also measured by egg deposition of fall (Lake Whitefish Coregonus clupeaformis ) and spring (Walleye Sander vitreus ) lithophilic spawners. We found that our propulsion cleaning device was more effective in increasing substrate relative hardness than was the water jet device, although this was not consistent among all study locations. We also found that egg deposition on study plots was variable, but in general, egg deposition was highest on study plots that had the greatest increases in relative hardness post‐cleaning. The practicality of cleaning devices is likely related to the magnitude of site‐specific degradation. Our results indicate that the use of these or similar devices can potentially increase the quality of spawning habitat by displacing sediments that have deposited on reef structures.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗
USGS2021

Modern reporting methods for angler tag-return studies:Trends in data quality, choice of method, and future considerations

Angler tag-return studies are a cornerstone of fisheries research, providing insights into individual movements and estimates of exploitation, among many other applications. However, the data generated from these studies is dependent upon effective communication between anglers and scientists. As technological advances are adopted by anglers, little research has been directed at the potential benefits of incorporating modern tag reporting methods. We tagged stream-dwelling black bass Micropterus spp. and provided anglers a choice of reporting methods (telephone, email, iNaturalist app, or a “mixed-mode” combination thereof). Our objectives were to examine the fate of reported fish, quantify trends in data quality across reporting methods, and explore how geographic location and angler avidity may influence use of reporting methods. Ninety-four percent of tag reports involved the release of the fish with the tag still intact, creating opportunities for longer-term data collection. Telephone was the most commonly used reporting method; however, this method had significantly lower completeness scores (e.g., lack of photographs or specifying fate of fish) and less precise location information than other methods. In contrast, iNaturalist had the highest completeness and most precise location information but was seldom used and had increased lag times in reporting. We found no significant differences in the proportion of reporting methods used across stream locations in our study, and avid anglers appeared to be individualistic in their choice of method. Overall, our study suggests that the adoption of modern reporting methods, like email and smartphone apps, could benefit data collection efforts of angler tag-return studies. Fisheries scientists may wish to consider which reporting methods align with their specific study objectives and with the angling public of a given study area.

Arkansas, Oklahoma↗
USGS2022

Engaging stakeholders to develop a decision support model of conservation risk and management capacity to prioritize investments in Bull Trout recovery

Rarely are sufficient resources available to support the full suite of management actions to promote recovery of a species across their entire distribution. Decision support models are a tool that can inform natural resource management decisions with consideration of the perspectives from a variety of stakeholders who work across large geographic and jurisdictional extents. We offer an example of a decision support model that was developed by several Federal and State natural resource agencies to rank Bull Trout Salvelinus confluentus core areas for prioritizing conservation investment within Oregon, USA. We engaged State level decision makers to identify parameters believed to be influential in determining funding allocations for Bull Trout core areas. Parameters were linked in a model framework that was further refined with input from local Bull Trout experts with knowledge specific to the various core areas. The model produces a relative priority value that is a combination of the conservation risk to the species and the management capacity to address threats. A series of sensitivity analyses suggests that Bull Trout persistence and threat score are most influential in determining the relative priority of a core area, and life-history and genetic diversity are least influential. One of the more powerful products from this work is an interactive web-based application ( https://das.ecosphere.fws.gov/public/obts/ ) that anyone can use to explore how their beliefs in parameter values will affect the relative priority of Bull Trout core areas across Oregon. Our modeling effort is an example of engaging stakeholders with different roles in species recovery and across a large geographic area to create a clearer path forward in allocating limited resources for species recovery. This approach can be employed to address a number of natural resource management situations across species and habitats.

Oregon↗
USGS2022

Life-cycle model reveals sensitive life stages and evaluates recovery options for a dwindling Pacific salmon population

Population models, using empirical survival rates estimates for different life stages, can help managers explore whether various management options could stabilize a declining population or restore it to former levels of abundance. Here we used two decades of data on five life stages of the Cedar River, USA Sockeye Salmon, Oncorhynchus nerka , population to create and parameterize a life-cycle model. This formerly large but unproductive population is now in steep decline, despite hatchery enhancement. We gathered population-specific data on survival during five stages: 1) egg-to-fry, 2) fry-to-presmolt, 3) presmolt-to-adult return from the ocean, 4) adult en route from the ocean to the spawning grounds, and 5) reproduction. We ground-truthed the model to ensure its fit to the data, and then we modified survival and other parameters during various stages to examine future scenarios. Our analyses revealed that low survival of juveniles in Lake Washington (stage 2: averaging only 3% over the last 20 years), survival of adults returning to fresh water to spawn (stage 4), and survival of adults on spawning grounds to reproduce (stage 5) are likely limiting factors. Combined increases in these stages and others (specifically, the proportion of fish taken into the hatchery to be spawned) might also recover the population. As in other integrated hatchery populations, managers must weigh options relating to balancing the fraction of natural- and hatchery-origin fish, and our results showed that increasing the fraction of fish taken into the hatchery alone will not recover the population. Our model brings together population-specific data to help managers weigh conservation strategies and understand which stages and habitats are most limiting and how much survival must increase to achieve recovery targets. By extension, our analyses also reveal the utility of such models in other cases where stage-specific data are available.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗
USGS2024

Fish size structure analysis via ordination: A visualization aid

Objective Visual aids like length-frequency histograms are widely used to examine fish population status and trends; however, comparing multiple histograms simultaneously becomes cumbersome and inefficient. Complicating matters further, overlaying covariates on histograms to highlight connections with length frequencies can be challenging. An alternative, and the subject of this Perspective, is to display length distributions as an ordination using similarity indexes; in many cases, this allows for improved visual organization and representation of relationships with covariates. Methods I review the application of ordination methods for analysis of size structures using alternative visualizations that may facilitate the identification of connections that are concealed when analyzing a series of histograms. After a brief introduction to similarity indexes, types of ordinations, and sample sizes, I examine four case studies to illustrate size structure analysis via similarity indices: (1) unconstrained ordination to identify “bass-crowded” populations in a set of 34 small fishing lakes, (2) unconstrained ordination to evaluate the effect of three consecutive length limits on a Largemouth Bass Micropterus nigricans population over a span of 28 years, (3) constrained ordination to assess the relationships between fish community size structure and in-lake and off-lake environmental descriptors in 30 oxbow lakes, and (4) constrained ordination to identify what aspects of Largemouth Bass size structure were related to six types of reservoir habitats. Result Size structure analysis via similarity indexes enabled the exploration of extensive length-frequency data. It is important to acknowledge that ordinations serve solely as a visual aid for assessing size structure—no statistical testing is involved. Conclusion Ordination techniques and software are advancing at a quick pace, holding great promise for the future of size structure analysis via similarity indices.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗
USGS2023

Pardus in the press: Drivers of leopard (Panthera pardus fusca) attack occurrence on humans in Nepal

The negative impact of large carnivore presence in human-dominated landscapes manifests as livestock depredation and in extreme cases as attacks on humans. In the case of conflict with leopards in Nepal, attacks resulting in human fatality have become more frequent over time, thus creating an urgent socio-ecological and management issue. We estimated the occurrence of leopard attacks in Nepal from human-leopard conflict cases reported in the media. We used occupancy models to analyse data collected from online news reports on incidents of leopard attacks on humans to explore drivers of leopard attacks on a landscape scale. Our results suggest that the probability of occurrence of leopard attack is associated with human population density, terrain ruggedness and livestock density. The human population density effect may be indicative of a density-dependent relationship, where attacks are more likely in areas where an increased abundance of humans increases encounter rates with leopards. The positive effect of livestock density suggests that livestock may be drawing leopards into human settlements, and consequently increasing the likelihood of attacks on humans. Terrain ruggedness might be offering ideal conditions to facilitate attacks on humans, for example remoteness and high amounts of cover to launch ambush attacks. We provide inference and insights into key determinants of leopard attacks on humans on a landscape scale. These insights can be used to guide future research, inform mitigation measures to reduce leopard attacks and foster a better understanding of the interaction between people and leopards. This study demonstrates the applicability and novelty of using a hierarchical modelling framework applied to freely and publicly available media reports to inform the applied management of human-wildlife conflict at a national scale.

People and Nature↗
USGS2025

Cultivating reciprocity and supporting Indigenous lifeways through the cultural transformation of natural resource management in North America

Recent decades have seen increasing calls for implementing Indigenous Knowledges (IK) in natural resource management (NRM). However, efforts have been limited by the cultural incommensurabilities between (1) NRM institutions, which are rooted in worldviews that prioritize extraction for dominant cultures and assume dominance over nature and (2) Indigenous worldviews that prioritize kincentric reciprocity with the environment. This manuscript addresses how transforming NRM institutions enables management to better support Indigenous Knowledges and lifeways. This manuscript examines incommensurabilities between NRM institutional cultures and Indigenous cultures, with the value and lifeway of reciprocity as the focal point. Through synthesizing interdisciplinary scholarship and examples from author experiences, we explore how NRM institutions in North America can transform to honour and facilitate reciprocity, especially within efforts to implement IK and support Indigenous lifeways. NRM institutions are cultural products, and in North America were born of colonial histories and cultural roots connected to modern governance and power dynamics. These cultural foundations led to NRM approaches that prioritize maximizing economic growth while guarding against overexploitation. Kincentric reciprocal relations with the environment often emphasize interdependency with more-than-human kin, place-based holistic Knowledges grounded in cultural practices and communal responsibility to cultivate social-ecological abundance for present and future generations. Incommensurabilities between NRM institutional cultures and Indigenous cultures impede efforts to implement IK and support Indigenous lifeways as: (1) rigid institutional structures do not account for Indigenous worldviews and values but instead attempt to fit IK within dominant paradigms; (2) the siloing of NRM leads to the piecemealing and invalidation of IK at the expense of Knowledge Holders and (3) ineffective public engagement strategies limit the possibility of reciprocal relations between NRM institutions and communities throughout management processes. Incommensurabilities between NRM institutional cultures and Indigenous cultures impede efforts to implement IK and support Indigenous lifeways as: (1) rigid institutional structures do not account for Indigenous worldviews and values but instead attempt to fit IK within dominant paradigms; (2) the siloing of NRM leads to the piecemealing and invalidation of IK at the expense of Knowledge Holders and (3) ineffective public engagement strategies limit the possibility of reciprocal relations between NRM institutions and communities throughout management processes. Transforming NRM institutional cultures to better implement IK and support Indigenous lifeways is key for redressing long-standing issues and ensuring social-ecological resilience and abundance. Heavy investments of time, personnel and resources are necessary for transforming NRM institutions to appropriately cultivate reciprocal relations with Indigenous communities and lands. Strategies towards transformation include decentralization through decolonial frameworks, knowledge co-production and using place-based cultural evaluation processes to improve cultural alignment.

People and Nature↗
USGS2026

Visioning ecologically diverse and harmonious futures of Korea in Good Anthropocene

1.The Korean Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), a buffer between North and South Korea, holds profound historical, cultural and ecological significance, as well as exceptional potential for conservation and transformation. This study explores ecologically diverse and peaceful futures for the Korean Peninsula by envisioning the DMZ as a landscape for harmonious human–nature co-existence. 2.Using the Nature Futures Framework ( NFF ) and the Seeds of Good Anthropocenes ( SoGA ) approach, we co-developed four ‘Living in Harmony with Nature’ visions that reflect diverse values and meanings of nature for sustainable and well-being oriented futures in Korea. 3.These visions emphasize balancing human activities with ecological integrity, reimagining the DMZ as a space for peace, restoration and shared stewardship. They express citizens' perspectives on aspirational and inclusive futures, highlighting existing initiatives as levers for change and intersectoral and interdisciplinary collaboration as key enabling conditions. 4.This visioning process demonstrates the role of the science-policy-society interface, diverse stakeholder engagement and integration of history, culture and social cohesion. This paper reflects on the lessons from this process and discusses implications for future scenario development—particularly how a whole-of-society approach can help identify policy options and societal transformations that advance nature–people-positive futures in Korea and beyond.

Korean Peninsula↗
USGS2020

Landscape matters: Predicting the biogeochemical effects of permafrost thaw on aquatic networks with a state factor approach

Permafrost thaw has been widely observed to alter the biogeochemistry of recipient aquatic ecosystems. However, research from various regions has shown considerable variation in effect. In this paper, we propose a state factor approach to predict the release and transport of materials from permafrost through aquatic networks. Inspired by Hans Jenny's seminal description of soil‐forming factors, and based on the growing body of research on the subject, we propose that a series of state factors—including relief, ice content, permafrost extent, and parent material—will constrain and direct the biogeochemical effect of thaw over time. We explore state‐factor‐driven variation in thaw response using a series of case studies from diverse regions of the permafrost‐affected north, and also describe unique scaling considerations related to the mobile and integrative nature of aquatic networks. While our cross‐system review found coherent responses to thaw for some biogeochemical constituents, such as nutrients, others, such as dissolved organics and particles, were much more variable in their response. We suggest that targeted, hypothesis‐driven investigation of the effects of state factor variation will bolster our ability to predict the biogeochemical effects of thaw across diverse and rapidly changing northern landscapes.

Permafrost and Periglacial Processes↗
USGS2021

Ground‐penetrating radar, electromagnetic induction, terrain, and vegetation observations coupled with machine learning to map permafrost distribution at Twelvemile Lake, Alaska

We collected ground‐penetrating radar (GPR) and frequency‐domain electromagnetic induction (FDEM) profiles in 2011 and 2012 to identify the extent of permafrost relative to surface biomass and solar insolation around Twelvemile Lake near Fort Yukon, Alaska. We compared a Landsat‐derived biomass estimate and modeled solar insolation from a digital elevation model to the geophysical measurements. We show correspondence between vegetation type and biomass relative to permafrost extent and seasonal freeze–thaw. Thicker permafrost (≥25 m) was covered by greater biomass, and seasonal thaw depths in these regions were minimal (1 m). Shallow (1–3 m depth) and thin (20–50 cm) newly forming permafrost or frozen layers from the previous winter occurred below northward oriented slopes with thin biomass cover. South‐facing slopes exhibited permafrost when there was enough biomass to shield incoming solar energy. We developed an artificial neural network to predict permafrost extent across the broader region by mapping GPR‐observed instances of permafrost to FDEM, biomass, and terrain observations with 90.2% accuracy. We identified a strong linear correlation ( r = −0.77) between permafrost probability and seasonal thaw depth, indicating that our models may also be used to explore thaw patterns and variability in active layer thickness. This study highlights the combined influence of biomass and terrain on the presence of permafrost and the value of evaluating such parameters via remote sensing to predict permafrost spatial or temporal variability. Incorporating diverse geophysical datasets with in‐situ validation into machine learning models demonstrates a useful approach to upscale estimated permafrost extent across large Arctic expanses.

Alaska↗