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Merging paleobiology with conservation biology to guide the future of terrestrial ecosystems

The current impacts of humanity on nature are rapid and destructive, but species turnover and change have occurred throughout the history of life. Although there is much debate about the best approaches to take in conservation, ultimately, we need to permit or enhance the resilience of natural systems so that they can continue to adapt and function into the future. In a Review, Barnosky et al. argue that the best way to do this is to look back at paleontological history as a way to understand how ecological resilience is maintained, even in the face of change.

Science↗

Summer food habits and trophic overlap of roundtail chub and creek chub in Muddy Creek, Wyoming

Native fishes of the Upper Colorado River Basin have experienced substantial declines in abundance and distribution, and are extirpated from most of Wyoming. Muddy Creek, in south-central Wyoming (Little Snake River watershed), contains sympatric populations of native roundtail chub (Gila robusta), bluehead sucker, (Catostomus discobolus), and flannelmouth sucker (C. tatipinnis), and represents an area of high conservation concern because it is the only area known to have sympatric populations of all 3 species in Wyoming. However, introduced creek chub (Semotilus atromaculatus) are abundant and might have a negative influence on native fishes. We assessed summer food habits of roundtail chub and creek chub to provide information on the ecology of each species and obtain insight on potential trophic overlap. Roundtail chub and creek chub seemed to be opportunistic generalists that consumed a diverse array of food items. Stomach contents of both species were dominated by plant material, aquatic and terrestrial insects, and Fishes, but also included gastropods and mussels. Stomach contents were similar between species, indicating high trophic, overlap. No length-related patterns in diet were observed for either species. These results suggest that creek chubs have the potential to adversely influence the roundtail chub population through competition for food and the native fish assemblage through predation.

Southwestern Naturalist↗

Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center

The Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center (NPWRC) conducts integrated research to fulfill the Department of the Interior's responsibilities to the Nation's natural resources. Located on 600 acres along the James River Valley near Jamestown, North Dakota, the NPWRC develops and disseminates scientific information needed to understand, conserve, and wisely manage the Nation's biological resources. Research emphasis is primarily on midcontinental plant and animal species and ecosystems of the United States. During the center's 40-year history, its scientists have earned an international reputation for leadership and expertise on the biology of waterfowl and grassland birds, wetland ecology and classification, mammalian behavior and ecology, grassland ecosystems, and application of statistics and geographic information systems. To address current science challenges, NPWRC scientists collaborate with researchers from other U.S. Geological Survey centers and disciplines (Biology, Geography, Geology, and Water) and with biologists and managers in the Department of the Interior (DOI), other Federal agencies, State agencies, universities, and nongovernmental organizations. Expanding upon its scientific expertise and leadership, the NPWRC is moving in new directions, including invasive plant species, restoration of native habitats, carbon sequestration and marketing, and ungulate management on DOI lands.

Fact Sheet↗

Wetland ecohydrology

Ecohydrology emphasizes the interactions between ecological and hydrological patterns and processes in wetlands. Given that wetlands are fundamentally defined by prolonged saturation or flooding of land, an ecohydrological perspective is implicit in wetland ecology. In this review, we provide examples of how variation in hydrologic processes in space and time influences wetland ecosystems in temperate riparian zones, inland temperate wetlands, and subtropical monsoonal wetlands. Because wetland ecosystems are highly impacted by anthropogenic change, an understanding of ecohydrological processes in wetlands will be critical for future conservation and restoration of wetlands in a changing world.

Book chapter↗

Transient population dynamics: Relations to life history and initial population state

Most environments are variable and disturbances (e.g., hurricanes, fires) can lead to substantial changes in a population's state (i.e., age, stage, or size distribution). In these situations, the long-term (i.e., asymptotic) measure of population growth rate (??1) may inaccurately represent population growth in the short-term. Thus, we calculated the short-term (i.e., transient) population growth rate and its sensitivity to changes in the life-cycle parameters for three bird and three mammal species with widely varying life histories. Further, we performed these calculations for initial population states that spanned the entire range of possibilities. Variation in a population's initial net reproductive value largely explained the variation in transient growth rates and their sensitivities to changes in life-cycle parameters (all AICc ??? 6.67 units better than the null model, all R2 ??? 0.55). Additionally, the transient fertility and adult survival sensitivities tended to increase with the initial net reproductive value of the population, whereas the sub-adult survival sensitivity decreased. Transient population dynamics of long-lived, slow reproducing species were more variable and more different than asymptotic dynamics than they were for short-lived, fast reproducing species. Because ??1 can be a biased estimate of the actual growth rate in the short-term (e.g., 19% difference), conservation and wildlife biologists should consider transient dynamics when developing management plans that could affect a population's state, or whenever population state could be unstable.

Ecological Modelling↗

Habitat associations of breeding conifer-associated birds in managed and regenerating forested stands

Forests are often affected by management that could influence demographics of breeding and post-breeding birds that reside within. Numerous studies have focused on immediate effects from management on wildlife soon after forestry treatment (e.g., 0–5 years), however, fewer studies have examined changes in focal species abundance over longer durations as a forest regenerates after disturbance. We examined how forest management influenced 18 conifer-associated birds during breeding and post-breeding over the forest regeneration period in a landscape dominated by forestry. To achieve this, we paired avian detection data from point count surveys in lowland conifer and mixed-wood forests with Bayesian distance-removal models and an information-theoretic framework. We estimated abundance and associations with seven common forestry treatment categories applied at the stand scale, years-since-harvest (YSH; 5–120+), and seven vegetation variables measured within stands. Forestry treatment categories and YSH were poor predictors of abundance, and none of the 14 species with good-fitting models had associations with these covariates. Twelve of 13 species with good-fitting models had important associations between abundance and vegetation variables. All vegetation variables were associated with abundance of some species, irrespective of the forestry treatment in which the site occurred, including spruce-fir tree composition (seven species), tree basal area (six species), midstory cover (five species), live crown ratio (three species), shrub cover (three species), tree diameter at breast height (two species), and shrub composition (one species). In a companion study, several species assemblages were associated with vegetation variables (i.e., spruce-fir tree composition, tree basal area, and tree diameter at breast height) that varied with YSH and forestry treatments, suggesting that some forestry treatments may indirectly influence avian abundance when certain vegetation outcomes are achieved. Our results suggest that managers should target species-specific vegetation outcomes rather than more broadly categorized forestry treatment types when managing for individual focal species because of large variations in vegetative outcomes across stands within a forest treatment category. Our study informs management and conservation of biodiversity in regions such as the Atlantic Northern Forest where commercial forestry is the dominant human land use.

Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont↗

Causes, consequences, and conservation of ungulate migration

Our understanding of ungulate migration is advancing rapidly due to innovations in modern animal tracking. Herein, we review and synthesize nearly seven decades of work on migration and other long-distance movements of wild ungulates. Although it has long been appreciated that ungulates migrate to enhance access to forage, recent contributions demonstrate that their movements are fine tuned to dynamic landscapes, where forage, snow, and drought change seasonally. Researchers are beginning to understand how ungulates navigate migrations, with the emerging view that animals blend gradient tracking with spatial memory, some of which is socially learned. Although migration often promotes abundant populations—with broad effects on ecosystems—many migrations around the world have been lost or are currently threatened by habitat fragmentation, climate change, and barriers to movement. Fortunately, new efforts that use empirical tracking data to map migrations in detail are facilitating effective conservation measures needed to maintain ungulate migration.

Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systemati↗

The state of the giant sequoias: Losses, risks, and opportunities

Background Giant sequoias, an iconic tree found only in a narrow band along the western slope of the Sierra Nevada of California, are facing unprecedented threats. Despite being adapted to fire and resistant to both drought and insect attack, the species has exhibited signs of vulnerability to these stressors in recent years, with the most substantial impacts coming from wildfire. Recently, several unprecedentedly large and severe fires have resulted in the deaths of many large trees and, in some cases, limited postfire regeneration. These impacts have led to heightened efforts by managers to implement treatments to protect those places that are still vulnerable. Here, we provide a comprehensive, range-wide assessment of the condition of the species, including an evaluation of the trends in wildfire and its effects on large giant sequoia mortality and the potential for local extirpation, treatment patterns, and vulnerability to future fire. Results From 2015 to 2024, 82% of giant sequoia grove area burned in wildfire, compared to 24% between 1910 and 2014. We conservatively estimate that 17.6% of all large giant sequoias have been killed by wildfire since 1984, with most dying in 2020 and 2021. Due to very severe wildfire, roughly 13% of the range is at some risk of local extirpation due to the loss of mature trees and limited predicted regeneration. Treatment activity has increased since 1995, with treatment type and amount varying by jurisdiction. The combination of treatment and wildfire has created a mosaic of resistance to severe fire, with 26% of grove area at high resistance, 38% at moderate resistance, 2% at low resistance, and 16% having no resistance. The remaining 18% are areas where mature giant sequoia forest was lost due to high severity fire. Conclusions Giant sequoias have experienced substantial losses due to recent wildfire, with large areas at risk of grove loss. However, most burned area had lower severity effects, creating opportunities to leverage wildfire as a treatment. When combined with areas of active management, these opportunities can promote giant sequoia conservation in a time of rapid change.

California↗

A gap analysis and comprehensive conservation strategy for riverine ecosystems of Missouri

North America harbors an astounding proportion of the world's freshwater species, but it is facing a freshwater biodiversity crisis. A first step to slowing the loss of biodiversity involves identifying gaps in existing efforts to conserve biodiversity and prioritizing opportunities to fill these gaps. In this monograph we detail two separate, but complementary, conservation planning efforts - a Gap Analysis (GAP) and a State Wildlife Action Plan (WAP) - for Missouri that address this first step. The goal of the Missouri Aquatic GAP Project was to identify riverine ecosystems, habitats, and species not adequately represented (i.e., gaps) within existing conservation lands. The goal of the freshwater component of the Missouri Wildlife Action Plan was to identify and map a set of conservation-opportunity areas (COAs) that holistically represent all riverine ecosystems, habitats, and species in Missouri. Since conservation planning is a geographical exercise, both efforts utilized geographic information systems (GIS). Four principal GIS data sets were used in each planning effort: (1) a hierarchical riverine ecosystem classification, (2) predicted species distributions, (3) public ownership/stewardship, and (4) a human-threat index. Results of the gap analyses are not encouraging. Forty five, mostly rare, threatened, or endangered, species are not represented in lands set aside for conserving biodiversity. Results also illustrate the fragmented nature of conservation lands, which are mainly situated in the uplands and fail to provide connectivity among riverine habitats. Furthermore, many conservation lands are severely threatened by an array of human disturbances. In contrast, results of the WAP provide hope that relatively intact riverine ecosystems still exist. A total of 158 COAs, representing ∼6% of the total kilometers of stream in Missouri, were selected for the WAP. This illustrates that a wide spectrum of biodiversity can be represented within a small portion of the total resource base, but the area of conservation concern is often much larger. Identifying priority riverscapes for conservation is an important first step toward effective biodiversity conservation. Yet, achieving the ultimate goal of conserving biodiversity will require vigilance on the part of all responsible parties, with particular attention to addressing and coordinating the many remaining logistical tasks.

Missouri↗

Estimating the impact of climate and vegetation changes on runoff risk across the Hawaiian landscape

In Hawai’i, ecosystem conservation practitioners are increasingly considering the potential ecohydrological benefits from applied conservation action to mitigate the degrading impacts of runoff on native and restored ecosystems. One determinant of runoff is excess rainfall events where rainfall rates exceed the infiltration capacity of soils. To help understand runoff risks, we calculated the probability of excess rainfall events across the Hawaiian landscape by comparing the probability distributions of projected rainfall frequency and land-cover-specific infiltration capacity. We characterized soil infiltration capacity based on different land cover types (bare soil, grasses, and woody vegetation) and compared them to the frequency of large rainfall events under current and future climate scenarios. We then mapped the potential risk of excess rainfall across the main Hawaiian Islands. Our results show that land cover type has a very large effect on runoff risk as excess rainfall conditions are 234% more likely in bare soil and 75% more likely in grasslands compared to woody forests and shrublands. In contrast, projected shifts in rainfall intensity by end-of-century show little impact on these probabilities and thus, the risk of runoff. This indicates that the probability of excess rainfall is primarily driven by differences in land cover and not by current or potential shifts in rainfall patterns across the Hawaiian landscape. The ability to estimate the risk of potentially ecologically and economically costly runoff based on changes of land cover is useful for managers focused on invasive species control and restoration planning, especially for native and endemic ecosystems unique to the State of Hawai’i.

Hawaii↗

The unprecedented loss of Florida's reef-building corals and the emergence of a novel coral-reef assemblage

Over the last half century, climate change, coral disease, and other anthropogenic disturbances have restructured coral-reef ecosystems on a global scale. The disproportionate loss of once-dominant, reef-building taxa has facilitated relative increases in the abundance of “weedy” or stress-tolerant coral species. Although the recent transformation of coral-reef assemblages is unprecedented on ecological timescales, determining whether modern coral reefs have truly reached a novel ecosystem state requires evaluating the dynamics of reef composition over much longer periods of time. Here, we provide a geologic perspective on the shifting composition of Florida's reefs by reconstructing the millennial-scale spatial and temporal variability in reef assemblages using 59 Holocene reef cores collected throughout the Florida Keys Reef Tract (FKRT). We then compare the relative abundances of reef-building species in the Holocene reef framework to data from contemporary reef surveys to determine how much Florida's modern reef assemblages have diverged from long-term baselines. We show that the composition of Florida's reefs was, until recently, remarkably stable over the last 8000 yr. The same corals that have dominated shallow-water reefs throughout the western Atlantic for hundreds of thousands of years, Acropora palmata , Orbicella spp., and other massive coral taxa, accounted for nearly 90% of Florida's Holocene reef framework. In contrast, the species that now have the highest relative abundances on the FKRT, primarily Porites astreoides and Siderastrea siderea , were rare in the reef framework, suggesting that recent shifts in species assemblages are unprecedented over millennial timescales. Although it may not be possible to return coral reefs to pre-Anthropocene states, our results suggest that coral-reef management focused on the conservation and restoration of the reef-building species of the past, will optimize efforts to preserve coral reefs, and the valuable ecosystem services they provide into the future.

Florida↗

An introduction to the practical and ethical perspectives on the need to advance and standardize the intracoelomic surgical implantation of electronic tags in fish

The intracoelomic surgical implantation of electronic tags (including radio and acoustic telemetry transmitters, passive integrated transponders and archival biologgers) is frequently used for conducting studies on fish. Electronic tagging studies provide information on the spatial ecology, behavior and survival of fish in marine and freshwater systems. However, any surgical procedure, particularly one where a laparotomy is performed and the coelomic cavity is opened, has the potential to alter the survival, behavior or condition of the animal which can impair welfare and introduce bias. Given that management, regulatory and conservation decisions are based on the assumption that fish implanted with electronic tags have similar fates and behavior relative to untagged conspecifics, it is critical to ensure that best surgical practices are being used. Also, the current lack of standardized surgical procedures and reporting of specific methodological details precludes cross-study and cross-year analyses which would further progress the field of fisheries science. This compilation of papers seeks to identify the best practices for the entire intracoelomic tagging procedure including pre- and post-operative care, anesthesia, wound closure, and use of antibiotics. Although there is a particular focus on salmonid smolts given the large body of literature available on that group, other life-stages and species of fish are discussed where there is sufficient knowledge. Additional papers explore the role of the veterinarian in fish surgeries, the need for minimal standards in the training of fish surgeons, providing a call for more complete and transparent procedures, and identifying trends in procedures and research needs. Collectively, this body of knowledge should help to improve data quality (including comparability and repeatability), enhance management and conservation strategies, and maintain the welfare status of tagged fish.

Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries↗

An environmental streamflow assessment for the Santiam River basin, Oregon

The Santiam River is a tributary of the Willamette River in northwestern Oregon and drains an area of 1,810 square miles. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) operates four dams in the basin, which are used primarily for flood control, hydropower production, recreation, and water-quality improvement. The Detroit and Big Cliff Dams were constructed in 1953 on the North Santiam River. The Green Peter and Foster Dams were completed in 1967 on the South Santiam River. The impacts of the structures have included a decrease in the frequency and magnitude of floods and an increase in low flows. For three North Santiam River reaches, the median of annual 1-day maximum streamflows decreased 42–50 percent because of regulated streamflow conditions. Likewise, for three reaches in the South Santiam River basin, the median of annual 1-day maximum streamflows decreased 39–52 percent because of regulation. In contrast to their effect on high flows, the dams increased low flows. The median of annual 7-day minimum flows in six of the seven study reaches increased under regulated streamflow conditions between 60 and 334 percent. On a seasonal basis, median monthly streamflows decreased from February to May and increased from September to January in all the reaches. However, the magnitude of these impacts usually decreased farther downstream from dams because of cumulative inflow from unregulated tributaries and groundwater entering the North, South, and main-stem Santiam Rivers below the dams. A Wilcox rank-sum test of monthly precipitation data from Salem, Oregon, and Waterloo, Oregon, found no significant difference between the pre-and post-dam periods, which suggests that the construction and operation of the dams since the 1950s and 1960s are a primary cause of alterations to the Santiam River basin streamflow regime. In addition to the streamflow analysis, this report provides a geomorphic characterization of the Santiam River basin and the associated conceptual framework for assessing possible geomorphic and ecological changes in response to river-flow modifications. Suggestions for future biomonitoring and investigations are also provided. This study was one in a series of similar tributary streamflow and geomorphic studies conducted for the Willamette Sustainable Rivers Project. The Sustainable Rivers Project is a national effort by the USACE and The Nature Conservancy to develop environmental flow requirements in regulated river systems.

Oregon↗

Colocating artificial intelligence data centers with energy infrastructure on Federal public lands—A science synthesis and spatial analysis to inform decision making

Executive Summary Artificial intelligence (AI) is rapidly transforming industries and economies, creating an urgent need to strategically plan for the energy and infrastructure required to support increasing AI use. U.S. Federal agencies and bureaus have been directed to explore ways to accelerate permitting, development, and deployment of energy resources and AI technologies, including encouraging the colocation of energy infrastructure and data centers. To inform these initiatives, this report synthesizes relevant scientific information and presents a spatial analysis of existing energy infrastructure and data centers on or near U.S. Federal public lands managed by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM). The purpose of this science synthesis and spatial analysis is to provide the BLM with foundational information for considering potential colocation of data centers with energy infrastructure on Federal public lands to support evidence-based decisions. Additionally, this report provides insight into current (2025) and potential future energy demands by providing projections of a range of potential future environmental conditions relevant to maintaining industry-recommended cooling temperature standards necessary for efficient data center operations. As a part of this effort, a rapid response literature review was conducted of the best available science on the topic of data center development and energy infrastructure in July–August 2025, supplemented by additional resources recommended by U.S. Federal agency and bureau subject matter experts (hereafter experts; including the U.S. Department of Energy National Laboratory of the Rockies) and peer reviewers. To better understand current conditions relevant to AI data center development, a spatial analysis was conducted across Alaska and 11 States in the Western United States, Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming, all of which contain extensive BLM-managed surface lands (hereafter referred to as “BLM lands”) that could be considered for the colocation of energy infrastructure and AI data centers. This effort identified BLM lands within 10 miles of existing transmission lines, consistent with methods used in previous BLM programmatic environmental impact statements. This report describes the types of data centers operating within the United States, which vary in ownership, size, technology, and proximity to end users. This report then outlines the primary considerations of data center development, including reliable energy supply, natural resources (such as water availability to support cooling requirements), and relevant policy and regulatory considerations. Energy supply considerations are pivotal for data center operation. Between 2014 and 2018, data centers in the United States accounted for nearly 2 percent of the Nation’s total electricity consumption, and data center energy consumption is projected to increase from 2 to 6.7–12 percent of total U.S. electricity use by 2028. These energy requirements necessitate careful consideration of energy supply when considering potentially suitable locations for data center development. Experts anticipate that an increase in renewable energy generation will likely support most potential future power demand needs, including for data centers, followed by increases in natural gas, nuclear, and geothermal energy production. Additional capacity in the form of battery storage will likely not generate electricity, but may improve the reliability and flexibility of supply, helping to ensure that growing data center loads can be met. However, the U.S. Department of Energy estimates that the United States will need, on average, 57 percent more energy transmission infrastructure by 2035 to account for the growing power demand introduced by development such as data centers. Cooling server equipment in data centers requires large amounts of electricity and water, and this demand can be exacerbated by hot and humid conditions. Energy efficient water-based cooling technologies may reduce electricity consumption onsite but require more water consumption. This additional water demand has the potential to increase water stress and competition with other users. As such, developing data centers will likely need a thorough assessment of current and potential future water availability, as well as consideration of how water demand may change across other sectors. Data center development involves policy and regulatory considerations, as projects must undergo environmental review and authorization processes that can take 18–24 months. Coordinating these environmental reviews and authorizations with other energy development projects, such as building new transmission lines, may cause additional delays. Recent efforts by the U.S. Department of Energy and U.S. Department of the Interior aim to expedite environmental reviews and authorizations and improve coordination across agencies. The spatial analysis identified 771 existing AI data centers and more than 3,300 power plants. The spatial analysis found that 6 percent of AI data centers and 22 percent of power plants in the Western United States were on or within 1 mile of BLM lands, and California had the largest number of facilities. Most existing AI data centers were near high-voltage transmission lines and close to power plants, supporting efficient energy delivery. More than 90,000,000 acres of BLM lands were within 10 miles of existing high-voltage transmission lines, representing 38 percent of BLM lands in the study area. Available transmission infrastructure and the overlap with BLM lands varied by State, and Alaska had limited overlap compared to the rest of the Western United States. To operate most efficiently, data center temperatures must be at or below 80.6 degrees Fahrenheit. This analysis of future temperature and precipitation projections indicated increasing cooling demands for data centers, particularly in Arizona, California, and Nevada, where rising temperatures are expected to increase energy and operational costs while potentially stressing current regional electrical grid infrastructure. This report highlights relevant energy supply, natural resources, and regulatory considerations for data center development on BLM lands. This report does not provide a comprehensive ecological, regulatory, land suitability, or permitting analysis. The factors described here are contextual considerations only and are not intended to identify, rank, quantify, or recommend optimal areas for data center colocation. This spatial analysis focused solely on energy considerations relevant to data centers and did not consider water availability, critical habitats, BLM National Conservation Lands, areas of cultural or historical significance, and other sensitive resources. These topics are recognized as critical but were not within the scope of this science synthesis and spatial analysis.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

A comparison of plant communities in restored, old field, and remnant coastal prairies

Temperate grasslands are experiencing worldwide declines due to habitat conversion. Grassland restoration efforts are employed to compensate for these losses. However, there is a need to better understand the ecological effects of grassland restoration and management practices. We investigated the effects of three different grassland management regimes on plant communities of coastal prairie ecosystems in southwest Louisiana (USA). We compared old fields, prairie remnants, and restored prairies. Coastal prairies are a unique type of grassland historically present across southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana. Old fields represent former coastal prairie habitats allowed to revegetate naturally without active management. Remnant coastal prairies are small, isolated patches of comparatively intact prairie. Restored coastal prairies have been actively restored by planting native coastal prairie vegetation and managed with prescribed burning, mowing, and/or removal of invasive non‐native species. Our work was conducted in 3 old fields, 4 remnants, and 4 restored prairies. Old fields were dominated by non‐native species with low conservation value, whereas remnant prairies were dominated by native species with high conservation value. Remnants had a mean species richness of 75 species per site, which is higher than most other tallgrass prairie ecosystems in North America. Restored sites were dominated by native species with high conservation value, although the composition differed between restored and remnant sites. Collectively, our results: (1) reinforce the importance of identifying and preserving remnant coastal prairies; and (2) show that restoration of degraded coastal prairies is a viable strategy for supporting the persistence of these unique grassland ecosystems.

Louisiana↗

Time-to-detection occupancy methods: Performance and utility for improving efficiency of surveys

Occupancy methods propelled the quantitative study of species distributions forward by separating the observation process, or the imperfect detectability of species, from the ecological processes of interest governing species distributions. Occupancy studies come at a cost, however: the collection of additional data to account for nondetections at sites where the species is present. The most common occupancy designs (repeated measures designs) require repeat visits to sites or the use of multiple observers or detection methods. Time‐to‐detection methods have been identified as a potentially efficient alternative, requiring only one visit to each site by a single observer. A comparison of time‐to‐detection methods to repeated measures designs for visual encounter surveys would allow researchers to evaluate whether time‐to‐detection methods might be appropriate for their study system and can inform optimal survey design. We collected time‐to‐detection data during two different repeated measures design occupancy surveys for four amphibians and compared the performance of time‐to‐detection methods to the other designs using the location (potential bias) and precision of posterior distributions for occurrence parameters. We further used results of time‐to‐detection surveys to optimize survey design. Time‐to‐detection methods performed best for species that are widespread and have high detection probabilities and rates, but performed less well for cryptic species with lower probability of occurrence or whose detection was strongly affected by survey conditions. In all cases single surveys were most efficient in terms of person‐hours expended, but under some conditions the survey duration required to achieve high detection probabilities would be prohibitively long for a single survey. Regardless of occupancy survey design, time‐to‐detection methods provide important information that can be used to optimize surveys, allowing researchers and resource managers to efficiently achieve monitoring and conservation goals. Collecting time‐to‐detection data while conducting repeated measures occupancy surveys requires only small modifications to field methods but could have large benefits in terms of time spent surveying in the long‐term.

California↗

Climate and disturbance influence self-sustaining stand dynamics of aspen (Populus tremuloides) near its range margin

Species that are primarily seral may form stable (self-sustaining) communities under certain disturbance regimes or environmental conditions, yet such populations may also be particularly vulnerable to ecological change. Aspen (Populus spp.) are generally considered seral throughout the northern hemisphere, including P. tremuloides, the most widely distributed tree species in North America. Recent declines in aspen populations have occurred, especially along drought-sensitive margins of its range and where fire exclusion and herbivory have promoted community transition. However, aspen also forms stable stands, and examination of the mechanisms that influence persistence can offer conservation insights, especially where populations are vulnerable to changing climate or altered disturbance dynamics. We sampled tree age and stand characteristics of isolated aspen forests in the arid Great Basin (USA) to determine if: (1) aspen communities are more fire-dependent and seral or fire-independent and stable; (2) ungulate browsing inhibits aspen stability; and (3) temporal patterns of vegetative reproduction (i.e., ramet establishment or “suckering”) are correlated with climate. Aspen size and age class densities strongly fit negative exponential distributions, whether grouped geographically or by functional type, suggesting landscape-scale persistence. Continuous age distributions and high proportions of recruitment-sized to overstory trees suggest stability at stand-scales, with exceptions including stands with higher browsing pressure. Few stands had evidence of fire, and relationships between dead tree size and variability in live tree size suggest a lack of fire-dependency. Several five-year averaged climate variables and one sea surface temperature index were correlated with aspen ramet establishment densities over time, with strongest relationships occurring ~5 years prior to establishment year, often followed by inverse relationships ~1 year after. Indeed, aspen establishment density for a recent 41-year period was reliably reconstructed using antecedent climate conditions derived from a single drought index. Temporally synchronized aspen ramet establishment across the study region may be due to climate-driven storage of nonstructural carbohydrate reserves in clonal root systems later used for regeneration. Complex regeneration dynamics of these self-sustaining aspen stands, especially sensitivity to climate variability, suggest they may serve as harbingers of ecological change in the arid Great Basin and in other aspen populations near their range margin.

Ecological Applications↗

Conservation genetics of managed ungulate populations

Natural populations of many species are increasingly impacted by human activities. Perturbations are particularly pronunced for large ungulates due in part to sport and commercial harvest, to reductions and fragmentation of native habitat, and as the result of reintroductions. These perturbations affect population size, sex and age composition, and population breeding structure, and as a consequence affect the levels and partitioning of genetic variation. Three case histories highlighting long-term ecological genetic research on mule deer Odocoileus hemionus (Rafinesque, 1817), white-tailed deer O . virginianus (Zimmermann, 1780), and Alpine ibex Capra i. ibex Linnaeus, 1758 are presented. Joint examinations of population ecological and genetic data from several populations of each species reveal: (1) that populations are not in genetic equilibrium, but that allele frequencies and heterozygosity change dramatically over time and among cohorts produced in successive years, (2) populations are genetically structured over short and large geographic distances reflecting local breeding structure and patterns of gene flow, respectively; however, this structure is quite dynamic over time, due in part to population exploitation, and (3) restocking programs are often undertaken with small numbers of founding individuals resulting in dramatic declines in levels of genetic variability and increasing levels of genetic differentiation among populations due to genetic drift. Genetic characteristics have and will continue to provide valuable indirect sources of information relating enviromental and human perturbations to changes in population processes.

Acta Theriologica↗