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At least 1,729 records · Page 96Linked to original sources
USGS2020

Factors influencing the probability of hydraulic fracturing induced seismicity in Oklahoma

Injection‐induced seismicity became an important issue over the past decade, and although much of the rise in seismicity is attributed to wastewater disposal, a growing number of cases have identified hydraulic fracturing (HF) as the cause. A recent study identified regions in Oklahoma where ≥75% of seismicity from 2010 to 2016 correlated with nearly 300 HF wells. To identify factors associated with increased probability of induced seismicity, we gathered publicly available information about the HF operations in these regions including: injected volume, number of wells on a pad, injected fluid (gel vs. slickwater), vertical depth of the well, proximity of the well to basement rock, and the formation into which the injection occurred. To determine the statistical strength of the trends, we applied logistic regression, bootstrapping, and odds ratios. We see no trend with total injected volume in our Oklahoma dataset, in contrast to strong trends observed in Alberta and Texas, but we note those regions have many more multiwell pads leading to larger cumulative volumes within a localized area. We found a > ∼50% lower probability of seismicity with the use of gel compared to slickwater. We found that HF wells targeting older formations had a higher probability of seismicity; however, these wells also tend to be deeper, and we found the trend with well depth to be stronger than the trend with age of formation. When isolated to the Woodford formation, well depth produced the strongest relationship, increasing from ∼5%> to ∼50% probability from 1.5 to 5.5 km. However, no trend was seen in the proximity to basement parameter. Based on previously measured pore pressure gradients, we interpret the strong absolute depth relationship to be a result of the increasing formation overpressure measured in deeper portions of the basin that lower the stress change needed to induce seismicity.

Oklahoma↗
USGS1988

Structure of the Blytheville arch in the New Madrid seismic zone

Seismic-reflection profiles across part of the New Madrid seismic zone in northeastern Arkansas and southeastern Missouri show a faulted and structurally complex zone, originally known as Charlie’s ridge but herein renamed Blytheville arch, which is about 10 to 15 km wide and about 110 km long. Several exploratory drill holes in the arch penetrate Upper and possibly Middle Cambrian formations directly below Cretaceous rocks, whereas drill holes off the arch penetrate the Cambrian and Ordovician Knox and Arbuckle Groups equivalents and possibly younger Paleozoic rocks below the Cretaceous; therefore, the pre-Cretaceous rocks in the arch are structurally high. Most earthquakes in the northeast-trending segment of the New Madrid seismic zone along the axis of the Reelfoot rift occur along the arch. Focal mechanisms of earthquakes in the trend show right-lateral, strike-slip movement. Epicenters in the northeastern part of the seismic trend between Caruthersville, MO, and Blytheville, AR, are spatially less dispersed than those to the southwest between Blytheville and Marked Tree, AR. Most of the hypocenters to the northeast cluster between 6 to 12 km deep, whereas those to the southwest range from near the surface to about 15 km deep. Earthquakes in the northeast part of the seismic trend are concentrated along a fault zone under the arch, whereas those to the southwest are more dispersed under the arch. A seismic trend that extends south-southwest from near Charleston, MO, projects to the northwest side of the ridge near Blytheville, where the seismicity changes character and the southeast boundary of the arch trends more easterly. The relationship between the structural boundaries of the arch and the seismicity may establish the extent of part of New Madrid seismicity and improve the basis for seismic hazard assessment.

Arkansas, Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee↗
USGS2005

Mountain plover population responses to black-tailed prairie dogs in Montana

We studied a local population of mountain plovers (Charadrius montanus) in southern Phillips County, Montana, USA, from 1995 to 2000 to estimate annual rates of recruitment rate (f) and population change (??). We used Pradel models, and we modeled ?? as a constant across years, as a linear time trend, as year-specific, and with an additive effect of area occupied by prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus). We modeled recruitment rate (f) as a function of area occupied by prairie dogs with the remaining model structure identical to the best model used to estimate ??. Our results indicated a strong negative effect of area occupied by prairie dogs on both ?? (slope coefficient on a log scale was -0.11; 95% CI was -0.17, -0.05) and f (slope coefficient on a logit scale was -0.23; 95% CI was -0.36, -0.10). We also found good evidence for a negative time trend on ??; this model had substantial weight (wi = 0.31), and the slope coefficient on the linear trend on a log scale was -0.10 (95% CI was -0.15, -0.05). Yearly estimates of ?? were >1 in all years except 1999, indicating that the population initially increased and then stabilized in the last year of the study. We found weak evidence for year-specific estimates of ??; the best model with year-specific estimates had a low weight (wi = 0.02), although the pattern of yearly estimates of ?? closely matched those estimated with a linear time trend. In southern Phillips County, the population trend of mountain plovers closely matched the trend in the area occupied by black-tailed prairie dogs. Black-tailed prairie dogs declined sharply in the mid-1990s in response to an outbreak of sylvatic plague, but their numbers have steadily increased since 1996 in concert with increases in plovers. The results of this study (1) increase our understanding of the dynamics of this population and how they relate to the area occupied by prairie dogs, and (2) will be useful for planning plover conservation in a prairie dog ecosystem.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗
USGS2010

Population dynamics of spotted owls in the Sierra Nevada, California

The California spotted owl (Strix occidentalis occidentalis) is the only spotted owl subspecies not listed as threatened or endangered under the United States Endangered Species Act despite petitions to list it as threatened. We conducted a meta-analysis of population data for 4 populations in the southern Cascades and Sierra Nevada, California, USA, from 1990 to 2005 to assist a listing evaluation by the United States Fish and Wildlife Service. Our study areas (from N to S) were on the Lassen National Forest (LAS), Eldorado National Forest (ELD), Sierra National Forest (SIE), and Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks (SKC). These study areas represented a broad spectrum of habitat and management conditions in these mountain ranges. We estimated apparent survival probability, reproductive output, and rate of population change for spotted owls on individual study areas and for all study areas combined (meta-analysis) using model selection or model-averaging based on maximum-likelihood estimation. We followed a formal protocol to conduct this analysis that was similar to other spotted owl meta-analyses. Consistency of field and analytical methods among our studies reduced confounding methodological effects when evaluating results. We used 991 marked spotted owls in the analysis of apparent survival. Apparent survival probability was higher for adult than for subadult owls. There was little difference in apparent survival between male and female owls. Model-averaged mean estimates of apparent survival probability of adult owls varied from 0.811 ?? 0.021 for females at LAS to 0.890 ?? 0.016 for males at SKC. Apparent survival increased over time for owls of all age classes at LAS and SIE, for adults at ELD, and for second-year subadults and adults at SKC. The meta-analysis of apparent survival, which included only adult owls, confirmed an increasing trend in survival over time. Survival rates were higher for owls on SKC than on the other study areas. We analyzed data from 1,865 observations of reproductive outcomes for female spotted owls. The proportion of subadult females among all territorial females of known age ranged from 0.00 to 0.25 among study areas and years. The proportion of subadults among female spotted owls was negatively related to reproductive output (no. of young fledged/territorial F owl) for ELD and SIE. Eldorado study area and LAS showed an alternate-year trend in reproductive output, with higher output in even-numbered years. Mean annual reproductive output was 0.988 ?? 0.154 for ELD, 0.624 ?? 0.140 for LAS, 0.478 ?? 0.106 for SIE, and 0.555 ?? 0.110 for SKC. Eldorado Study Area exhibited a declining trend and the greatest variation in reproductive output over time, whereas SIE and SKC, which had the lowest reproductive output, had the lowest temporal variation. Meta-analysis confirmed that reproductive output varied among study areas. Reproductive output was highest for adults, followed by second-year subadults, and then by first-year subadults. We used 842 marked subadult and adult owls to estimate population rate of change. Modeling indicated that ??t (??t is the finite rate of population change estimated using the reparameterized JollySeber estimator Pradel 1996) was either stationary (LAS and SIE) or increasing after an initial decrease (ELD and SKC). Mean estimated ??t for the 4 study areas was 1.007 (95 CI 0.9521.066) for ELD; 0.973 (95 CI 0.9461.001) for LAS; 0.992 (95 CI 0.9661.018) for SIE; and 1.006 (95 CI 0.9471.068) for SKC. The best meta-analysis model of population trend indicated that ?? varied across time but was similar in trend among the study areas. Our estimates of realized population change (??t; Franklin et al. 2004), which we estimated as the product 1 ?? ??3 ?? ??4 ?? .?? ??k -1, were based on estimates of ??t from individual study areas and did not require estimating annual population size for each study area. Trends represented the proportion of the population size in the first ye

Wildlife Monographs↗
USGS1953

Fluorspar deposits of the Eagle Mountains, Trans-Pecos Texas

The Eagle Mountains are in the southeastern part of Hudspeth County, Tex., about 17 miles southwest of Van Horn and 100 miles southeast of El Paso, Tex. The fluorspar deposits are in the northern and northeastern parts of the mountains, except for the Rocky Ridge deposits, which are near the center of the mountainous mass. A good all-weather road leads south from Allamoore on U. S. Highway 80 to the mine and mill at Spar Valley. With the exception of the Rocky Ridge deposits, all deposits can be reached by ranch roads from the main Spar Valley road. Fluorspar was first found in the Eagle Mountains in 1919, but no development was undertaken until 1942. Since then, mining has been done at Eagle Spring and at the various deposits in Spar Valley. Many other deposits have been found in the area. About 12,000 tons of fluorspar had been shipped previous to January 1949, most of which came from the North ore body in Spar Valley. A mill was built near the deposits In 1945. With the exception of the Eagle Spring and Tank Canyon deposits, both of minor importance, the fluorspar deposits as of 1950 are all controlled by Texas Fluorspar Mines, Inc., of Van Horn, Tex. Cretaceous sedimentary rocks, which crop out on the flanks of the mountains, are overlain by a thick series of Tertiary volcanics that make up much of the central part of the mountains. Low on the northeast side, the Cretaceous rocks are underlain by Permian (?) limestones and the pre-Cambrian Carrizo Mountain schist. The Cretaceous sedimentary rocks range from the Yucca formation of Early Cretaceous (lower Trinity) age through the Eagle Ford formation of Late Cretaceous age. The rocks on the northeast side of the mountains dip southwest, and those on the southwest and west sides dip east-northeast and northeast. The axis of the large syncline thus formed roughly parallels the axis of the range. The igneous rocks occur within the trough of the syncline. Both intrusive and extrusive rocks are present. The extrusive rocks have been separated into three divisions : the lower rhyolitic series, trachyte porphyry, and the upper rhyolitic series. Both rhyolitic series consist of flows, flow breccias, volcanic breccias, and tuffaceous sediments, all predominantly of rhyolitic composition, although tending toward andesite locally. These volcanics have been intruded by a small stock of syenite, named in this report the Eagle Peak syenite, which crops out in the central, higher parts of the mountains. Rhyolite sills have invaded the sedimentary rocks near the margin of the volcanics, and diabase and late rhyolite dikes have intruded both sedimentary and volcanic rocks. Faults are common in the area, and six series of faults have been recognized. Thrusting from the southwest occurred both before and after the igenous activity and the subsequent downwarping of the central part of the mountains. The early thrust faults were followed by high-angle normal and reverse faults that trend northeastward and cut the volcanics. Later normal and reverse faults trending northwestward, and faults with large horizontal displacements trending roughly eastward, also are present, in addition to very late faults trending in a general northwesterly direction. Fluorspar occurs in the Eagle Mountains both as replacement deposits in limestone and as fissure veins, chiefly in rhyolite. Chief among the fissure veins are those occurring along the Rhyolite fault, the Wind Canyon fault, the vein at Shaft 4, and the veins on Fox claims 9 and 10. The most important replacement deposits are in the Rocky Ridge area and in Spar Valley. • At the North ore body in Spar Valley, the fluorine-bearing solutions replaced a series of sandy limestones in the upper beds of the lower part of the Finlay formation. Structural conditions limited the extent of the replaceable beds and consequently of the fluorspar mineralization. The fluorine-bearing solutions represent a very late stage of the igneous activity of the area. The large east-trending faults with their wide zones of gouge and breccia, typified by the Rhyolite and Wind Canyon faults, acted as the major channels for the solutions in their upward course. From these faults, the solutions spread outward into other faults and fractures, chiefly those with a northeasterly trend, and into the adjoining limestones. The physical and chemical nature of the surrounding rock, as well as structural conditions affecting the presence of openings in the rock, were the major controlling factors governing the size, extent, and position of the fluorspar deposits.

Texas↗
USGS2012

The United States National Climate Assessment - Alaska Technical Regional Report

The Alaskan landscape is changing, both in terms of effects of human activities as a consequence of increased population, social and economic development and their effects on the local and broad landscape; and those effects that accompany naturally occurring hazards such as volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, and tsunamis. Some of the most prevalent changes, however, are those resulting from a changing climate, with both near term and potential upcoming effects expected to continue into the future. Alaska's average annual statewide temperatures have increased by nearly 4°F from 1949 to 2005, with significant spatial variability due to the large latitudinal and longitudinal expanse of the State. Increases in mean annual temperature have been greatest in the interior region, and smallest in the State's southwest coastal regions. In general, however, trends point toward increases in both minimum temperatures, and in fewer extreme cold days. Trends in precipitation are somewhat similar to those in temperature, but with more variability. On the whole, Alaska saw a 10-percent increase in precipitation from 1949 to 2005, with the greatest increases recorded in winter. The National Climate Assessment has designated two well-established scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Nakicenovic and others, 2001) as a minimum set that technical and author teams considered as context in preparing portions of this assessment. These two scenarios are referred to as the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A2 and B1 scenarios, which assume either a continuation of recent trends in fossil fuel use (A2) or a vigorous global effort to reduce fossil fuel use (B1). Temperature increases from 4 to 22°F are predicted (to 2070-2099) depending on which emissions scenario (A2 or B1) is used with the least warming in southeast Alaska and the greatest in the northwest. Concomitant with temperature changes, by the end of the 21st century the growing season is expected to lengthen by 15-25 days in some areas of Alaska, with much of that corresponding with earlier spring snow melt. Future projections of precipitation (30-80 years) over Alaska show an increase across the State, with the largest changes in the northwest and smallest in the southeast. Because of increasing temperatures and growing season length, however, increased precipitation may not correspond with increased water availability, due to temperature related increased evapotranspiration. The extent of snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere has decreased by about 10 percent since the late 1960s, with stronger trends noted since the late 1980s. Alaska has experienced similar trends, with a strong decrease in snow cover extent occurring in May. When averaged across the State, the disappearance of snow in the spring has occurred from 4 to 6 days earlier per decade, and snow return in fall has occurred approximately 2 days later per decade. This change appears to be driven by climate warming rather than a decrease in winter precipitation, with average winter temperatures also increasing by about 2.5°F. The extent of sea ice has been declining, as has been widely published in both national and scientific media outlets, and is projected to continue to decline during this century. The observed decline in annual sea ice minimum extent (September) has occurred more rapidly than was predicted by climate models and has been accompanied by decreases in ice thickness and in the presence of multi-year ice. This decrease was first documented by satellite imagery in the late 1970s for the Bering and Chukchi Seas, and is projected to continue, with the potential for the disappearance of summer sea ice by mid- to late century. A new phenomenon that was not reported in previous assessments is ocean acidification. Uptake of carbon dioxide (CO2) by oceans has a significant effect on marine biogeochemistry by reducing seawater pH. Ocean acidification is of particular concern in Alaska, because cold sea water absorbs CO2 more rapidly than warm water, and a decrease in sea ice extent has allowed increased sea surface exposure and more uptake of CO2 into these northern waters. Ocean acidification will likely affect the ability of organisms to produce and maintain shell material, such as aragonite or calcite (calcium carbonate minerals structured from carbonate ions), required by many shelled organism, from mollusks to corals to microscopic organisms at the base of the food chain. Direct biological effects in Alaska further along the food chain have yet to be studied and may vary among organisms. Some of the potentially most significant changes to Alaska that could result from a changing climate are the effects on the terrestrial cryosphere - particularly glaciers and permafrost. Alaskan glaciers are changing at a rapid rate, the primary driver appearing to be temperature. Statewide, glaciers lost 13 cubic miles of ice annually from the 1950s to the 1990s, and that rate doubled in the 2000s. However, like temperature and precipitation, glacier ice loss is not spatially uniform; most glaciers are losing mass, yet some are growing (for example Hubbard Glacier in southeast Alaska). Alaska glaciers with the most rapid loss are those terminating in sea water or lakes. With this increasing rate of melt, the contribution of surplus fresh water entering into the oceans from Alaska's glaciers, as well as those in neighboring British Columbia, Canada, is approximately 20 percent of that contributed by the Greenland Ice Sheet. Permafrost degradation (that is, the thawing of ice-rich soils) is currently (2012) impacting infrastructure and surface-water availability in areas of both discontinuous and continuous ground ice. Over most of the State, the permafrost is warming, with increasing temperatures broadly consistent with increasing air temperatures. On the Arctic coastal plain of Alaska, permafrost temperatures showed some cooling in the 1950s and 1960s but have been followed by a roughly 5°F increase since the 1980s. Many areas in the continuous permafrost zone have seen increases in temperature in the seasonally active layer and a decrease in re-freezing rates. Changes in the discontinuous permafrost zone are initially much more observable due to the resulting thermokarst terrain (land surface formed as ice rich permafrost thaws), most notable in boreal forested areas. Climate warming in Alaska has potentially broad implications for human health and food security, especially in rural areas, as well as increased risk for injury with changing winter ice conditions. Additionally, such warming poses the potential for increasing damage to existing water and sanitation facilities and challenges for development of new facilities, especially in areas underlain by permafrost. Non-infectious and infectious diseases also are becoming an increasing concern. For example, from 1999 to 2006 there was a statistically significant increase in medical claims for insectbite reactions in five of six regions of Alaska, with the largest percentage increase occurring in the most northern areas. The availability and quality of subsistence foods, normally considered to be very healthy, may change due to changing access, changing habitats, and spoilage of meat in food storage cellars. These and other trends and potential outcomes resulting from a changing climate are further described in this report. In addition, we describe new science leadership activities that have been initiated to address and provide guidance toward conducting research aimed at making available information for policy makers and land management agencies to better understand, address, and plan for changes to the local and regional environment. This report cites data in both metric and standard units due to the contributions by numerous authors and the direct reference of their data.

Alaska↗
USGS2025

Bedrock fracture characterization of the New Hampshire State Route 111 bypass, Windham, New Hampshire

Bedrock roadcuts developed with blasting along the New Hampshire State Route 111 bypass in Windham expose the metasedimentary Silurian Berwick Formation and intrusions of multiple phases of foliated to nonfoliated granite to granitic pegmatite of the Devonian New Hampshire Plutonic Suite. Fracture characterization at two roadway rock cuts (roadcuts) included measurement of fractures over a distance of approximately 225 and 85 meters. The Berwick Formation consists of medium-gray biotite-plagioclase-quartz granofels, biotite schist, and lesser calc-silicate rock. The Berwick Formation is locally sulfidic. Fresh, unweathered roadcuts are mostly gray but exhibit locally rusty weathering. The most conspicuous foliation in the region around the studied roadcuts is steeply northwest dipping to subvertical and northeast-southwest striking. Regionally, the strike of the foliation is consistently to the northeast-southwest, but the dip is locally variable to both the southeast and northwest. About 8 percent of the observed foliation surfaces exhibit limited fracture parting. The limited degree of parting agrees with observations for rocks within the garnet zone of metamorphism elsewhere in the Windham 7.5-minute quadrangle. The most prominent fracture trend is subvertical to steeply northeast-dipping and northwest-southeast striking (strike and dip of about 295°, 80°). The peak trend of steeply dipping fractures at the two exposures is 295°±12° and 289°±6°. Veins observed in the granite occur parallel to the peak fracture trend and consist primarily of quartz, tourmaline, and ankerite with minor amounts of sulfides (arsenopyrite, galena, and rare sphalerite), and trace amounts of apatite and rutile. The observed peak fracture trend at these roadcuts closely agrees with the most prominent fracture trend recognized within the Windham quadrangle. Gently south- to southeast-dipping and east- to northeast-striking fractures occur as joints and as parting fractures along a weak S 3 cleavage. Water-bearing fractures at one exposure occur along joints and gently dipping contacts between the Berwick Formation and the granite to granitic pegmatite of the New Hampshire Plutonic Suite. About 8 percent of the fractures are water-bearing and most water-bearing fractures are gently dipping to the southeast. Fracture data separated by rock type shows a similar distribution for steeply dipping northwest-striking trends, but with much fewer observed steeply north-dipping fractures in the granitic rocks. Both rock types show a cluster of gently south-dipping fractures. The granites show far fewer steeply dipping northeast-striking fractures, which reflects a greater degree of parting along the foliation in the metasedimentary rocks than in the granites. No foliation-parallel fractures were observed in the granites, but some contacts between granites and the Berwick Formation do exhibit parting. Fracture termination classification yields 3 percent abutting, 76 percent dead end, and 21 percent crossing (or throughgoing) fractures. Six brittle faults were observed, which strike northeast and most dip steeply to the northwest. Calculated paleostress tensors for the faults show an average stress field that is consistent with Late Triassic to Early Jurassic northwest-southeast extension associated with rifting of the New England crust during the initial opening of the Atlantic Basin. Fault data are consistent with brittle reactivation of the northeast striking and northwest dipping dominant foliation.

New Hampshire↗
USGS2001

Evaluation of the location and recency of faulting near prospective surface facilities in Midway Valley, Nye County, Nevada

Evaluation of surface faulting that may pose a hazard to prospective surface facilities is an important element of the tectonic studies for the potential Yucca Mountain high-level radioactive waste repository in southwestern Nevada. For this purpose, a program of detailed geologic mapping and trenching was done to obtain surface and near-surface geologic data that are essential for determining the location and recency of faults at a prospective surface-facilities site located east of Exile Hill in Midway Valley, near the eastern base of Yucca Mountain. The dominant tectonic features in the Midway Valley area are the north- to northeast-trending, west-dipping normal faults that bound the Midway Valley structural block-the Bow Ridge fault on the west side of Exile Hill and the Paint-brush Canyon fault on the east side of the valley. Trenching of Quaternary sediments has exposed evidence of displacements, which demonstrate that these block-bounding faults repeatedly ruptured the surface during the middle to late Quaternary. Geologic mapping, subsurface borehole and geophysical data, and the results of trenching activities indicate the presence of north- to northeast-trending faults and northwest-trending faults in Tertiary volcanic rocks beneath alluvial and colluvial sediments near the prospective surface-facilities site. North to northeast-trending faults include the Exile Hill fault along the eastern base of Exile Hill and faults to the east beneath the surficial deposits of Midway Valley. These faults have no geomorphic expression, but two north- to northeast-trending zones of fractures exposed in excavated profiles of middle to late Pleistocene deposits at the prospective surface-facilities site appear to be associated with these faults. Northwest-trending faults include the West Portal and East Portal faults, but no disruption of Quaternary deposits by these faults is evident. The western zone of fractures is associated with the Exile Hill fault. The eastern zone of fractures is within Quaternary alluvial sediments, but no bedrock was encountered in trenches and soil pits in this part of the prospective surface facilities site; thus, the direct association of this zone with one or more bedrock faults is uncertain. No displacement of lithologic contacts and soil horizons could be detected in the fractured Quaternary deposits. The results of these investigations imply the absence of any appreciable late Quaternary faulting activity at the prospective surface-facilities site.

Nevada↗
USGS2006

National Assessment of Shoreline Change Part 3: Historical Shoreline Change and Associated Coastal Land Loss Along Sandy Shorelines of the California Coast

Beach erosion is a chronic problem along many open-ocean shores of the United States. As coastal populations continue to grow and community infrastructures are threatened by erosion, there is increased demand for accurate information regarding past and present trends and rates of shoreline movement. There is also a need for a comprehensive analysis of shoreline movement that is consistent from one coastal region to another. To meet these national needs, the U.S. Geological Survey is conducting an analysis of historical shoreline changes along open-ocean sandy shores of the conterminous United States and parts of Hawaii and Alaska. One purpose of this work is to develop standard repeatable methods for mapping and analyzing shoreline movement so that periodic updates regarding coastal erosion and land loss can be made nationally that are systematic and internally consistent. In the case of this study, the shoreline being measured is the boundary between the ocean water surface and the sandy beach. This report on the California Coast represents the first of two reports on long-term sandy shoreline change for the western U.S., the second of which will include the coast of the Pacific NW, including Oregon and Washington. A report for the Gulf of Mexico shoreline was completed in 2004 and is available at: http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2004/1043/. This report summarizes the methods of analysis, interprets the results, provides explanations regarding long-term and short-term trends and rates of change, and describes how different coastal communities are responding to coastal erosion. Shoreline change evaluations are based on comparing three historical shorelines digitized from maps, with a recent shoreline derived from lidar (Light Detection and Ranging) topographic surveys. The historical shorelines generally represent the following periods: 1800s, 1920s-1930s, and 1950s-1970s, whereas the lidar shoreline is from 1998-2002. Long-term rates of change are calculated using all four shorelines (1800s to lidar shoreline), whereas short-term rates of change are calculated for only the most recent period (1950s-1970s to lidar shoreline). The rates of change presented in this report represent past conditions and therefore are not intended for predicting future shoreline positions or rates of change. Due to the geomorphology of the California Coast (rocky coastline instead of beach) as well as to data gaps in some areas, this report presents beach erosion rates for 45% of California's 1100 km of coast. The average rate of long-term shoreline change for the State of California was 0.2?0.1 m/yr, an accretional trend. This is based on shoreline change rates averaged from 14,562 individual transects, of which 40% were eroding. Of the transects on which the shoreline was eroding, the long-term erosion rates were generally lowest in Southern California where coastal engineering projects have greatly altered the natural shoreline movement. On a regional scale, long-term accretion rates were either equal to (Central California) or greater than (Northern and Southern California) the long-term erosion rates, yielding the net accretional trend for the entire state. This accretional trend is most likely due to changes in the large volumes of sediment that are added to the system from large rivers and to the impact from coastal engineering and beach nourishment projects. The average rate of short-term shoreline change for the state was erosional. The net short-term rate as averaged along 16,142 transects was -0.2?0.4 m/yr. Of the transects used to measure short-term change, 66% had erosional trends. In addition erosion rates were higher in the short-term period, possibly related to the localized artificial nourishment that occurred over much of the 20th century but that has recently slowed or stopped (Flick, 1993; Wiegel, 1994). Short-term accretion rates were highest in Northern California where the overall magnitudes of shoreline change are systematically higher than in Central and Southern California. The most stable (low erosion and accretion rates) California beaches were most commonly found in Central California. Seawalls and/or riprap revetments have been constructed in all three sections of California, although many of these structures were built to protect houses and infrastructures from the erosion of coastal cliffs and bluffs rather than to protect against long-term beach erosion. California permits shoreline stabilization structures where homes, buildings or other community infrastructure are imminently threatened by erosion. A second California report that is following this publication will include analyses and reports on long-term coastal cliff erosion, as this hazard is of equal or greater concern to coastal communities in many areas along the California Coast.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2011

Natural gas production and anomalous geothermal gradients of the deep Tuscaloosa Formation

For the largest producing natural gas fields in the onshore Gulf of Mexico Basin, the relation between temperature versus depth was investigated. Prolific natural gas reservoirs with the highest temperatures were found in the Upper Cretaceous downdip Tuscaloosa trend in Louisiana. Temperature and production trends from the deepest field, Judge Digby field, in Pointe Coupe Parish, Louisiana, were investigated to characterize the environment of natural gas in the downdip Tuscaloosa trend. The average production depth in the Judge Digby field is approximately 22,000 ft. Temperatures as high as 400 degrees F are typically found at depth in Judge Digby field and are anomalously low when compared to temperature trends extrapolated to similar depths regionally. At 22,000 ft, the minimum and maximum temperatures for all reservoirs in Gulf Coast producing gas fields are 330 and 550 degrees F, respectively; the average temperature is 430 degrees F. The relatively depressed geothermal gradients in the Judge Digby field may be due to high rates of sediment preservation, which may have delayed the thermal equilibration of the sediment package with respect to the surrounding rock. Analyzing burial history and thermal maturation indicates that the deep Tuscaloosa trend in the Judge Digby field is currently in the gas generation window. Using temperature trends as an exploration tool may have important implications for undiscovered hydrocarbons at greater depths in currently producing reservoirs, and for settings that are geologically analogous to the Judge Digby fiel

Open-File Report↗
USGS2014

Groundwater, surface-water, and water-chemistry data, Black Mesa area, northeastern Arizona: 2011-2012

The Navajo (N) aquifer is an extensive aquifer and the primary source of groundwater in the 5,400-square-mile Black Mesa area in northeastern Arizona. Availability of water is an important issue in northeastern Arizona because of continued water requirements for industrial and municipal use by a growing population and because of low precipitation in the arid climate of the Black Mesa area. Precipitation in the area typically is between 6 and 14 inches per year. The U.S. Geological Survey water-monitoring program in the Black Mesa area began in 1971 and provides information about the long-term effects of groundwater withdrawals from the N aquifer for industrial and municipal uses. This report presents results of data collected as part of the monitoring program in the Black Mesa area from January 2011 to September 2012. The monitoring program includes measurements of (1) groundwater withdrawals, (2) groundwater levels, (3) spring discharge, (4) surface-water discharge, and (5) groundwater chemistry. In 2011, total groundwater withdrawals were 4,480 acre-ft, industrial withdrawals were 1,390 acre-ft, and municipal withdrawals were 3,090 acre-ft. Total withdrawals during 2011 were about 39 percent less than total withdrawals in 2005 because of Peabody Western Coal Company’s discontinued use of water to transport coal in a slurry. From 2010 to 2011 total withdrawals increased by 11 percent; industrial withdrawals increased by approximately 19 percent, and total municipal withdrawals increased by 8 percent. From 2011 to 2012, annually measured water levels in the Black Mesa area declined in 8 of 15 wells that were available for comparison in the unconfined areas of the N aquifer, and the median change was -0.1 feet. Water levels declined in 9 of 18 wells measured in the confined area of the aquifer. The median change for the confined area of the aquifer was 0.0 feet. From the prestress period (prior to 1965) to 2012, the median water-level change for 34 wells in both the confined and unconfined areas was -13.4 feet; the median water-level changes were -2.1 feet for 16 wells measured in the unconfined areas and -39.1 feet for 18 wells measured in the confined area. Spring flow was measured at four springs in 2012. Flow fluctuated during the period of record for Burro and Unnamed Spring near Dennehotso, but a decreasing trend was apparent at Moenkopi School Spring and Pasture Canyon Spring. Discharge at Burro Spring has remained relatively constant since it was first measured in the 1980s and discharge at Unnamed Spring near Dennehotso has fluctuated for the period of record. Trend analysis for discharge at Moenkopi and Pasture Canyon Springs yielded a slope significantly different from zero. Continuous records of surface-water discharge in the Black Mesa area were collected from streamflow-gaging stations at the following sites: Moenkopi Wash at Moenkopi 09401260 (1976 to 2010), Dinnebito Wash near Sand Springs 09401110 (1993 to 2010), Polacca Wash near Second Mesa 09400568 (1994 to 2010), and Pasture Canyon Springs 09401265 (2004 to 2010). Median winter flows (November through February) of each water year were used as an index of the amount of groundwater discharge at the above-named sites. For the period of record of each streamflow-gaging station, the median winter flows have generally remained constant, and there are no significant statistical trends in groundwater discharge. In 2012, water samples collected from 10 wells and 4 springs in the Black Mesa area were analyzed for selected chemical constituents, and the results were compared with previous analyses. Concentrations of dissolved solids, chloride, and sulfate have varied at all 10 wells for the period of record, but neither increasing nor decreasing trends over time were found. Dissolved solids, chloride, and sulfate concentrations increased at Moenkopi School Spring during the more than 12 years of record at that site. Concentrations of dissolved solids, chloride, and sulfate at Pasture Canyon Spring have not varied significantly since the early 1980s, and there is no increasing or decreasing trend in those data. Concentrations of dissolved solids, chloride, and sulfate at Burro Spring and Unnamed Spring near Dennehotso have varied for the period of record, but there is no increasing or decreasing trend in the data.

Arizona↗
USGS2020

Population and habitat analyses for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in the bi-state distinct population segment—2018 update

Executive Summary The Bi-State Distinct Population Segment (Bi-State DPS) of greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus , hereinafter “sage-grouse”) represents a genetically distinct and geographically isolated population that straddles the border between Nevada and California. The primary threat to these sage-grouse populations is the expansion of single-leaf pinyon ( Pinus monophylla ) and Utah juniper ( Juniperus osteosperma ) into sagebrush ecosystems, which fragments and reduces population connectivity and survival. Other important threats include low water availability during brood-rearing, particularly during drought, and increased predation by common ravens ( Corvus corax ), a generalist predator often associated with anthropogenic resource subsidies. Although the Bi-State DPS occurs at high elevations relative to sage-grouse range-wide, changes in historical wildfire cycles and the conversion of native shrubs to invasive annual grasslands still threaten these populations. The Bi-State DPS has undergone multiple federal status assessments and associated litigation. For example, in October of 2013, the Bi-State DPS was proposed for listing as threatened under the Endangered Species Act of 1973 by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), then withdrawn in April 2015. The withdrawal decision was challenged, and in May 2018, a Federal district court ordered the withdrawal decision to be vacated, and USFWS was required to re-open the October 2013 listing evaluation. In response, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), with State and Federal collaborators, embarked on a multipronged analysis to provide current and best available science regarding population status of sage-grouse within the Bi-State DPS. Using data from a long-term monitoring program, we carried out four analytical study objectives, and here, we provide preliminary results of these analyses. First, we used integrated population modeling (IPM) to predict annual population abundance and annual finite rate of population change for the Bi-State DPS, as a whole, and for each subpopulation between 1995 and 2018. Because sage-grouse exhibit population cycles (periodic increases and decreases in abundance across approximately 6- to 10-year wavelengths), we estimated trends across three nested temporal scales that represent one (11 years), two (18 years), and three (24 years) complete population cycles. These estimates of relatively long-term averaged population change account for temporal (that is, interannual) variation. Our model predicted population abundance for the Bi-State DPS during 2018 at 3,305 individuals (2,247–4,683), with the majority occupying Bodie Hills and Long Valley. The model also predicted cyclic dynamics in abundance through time with evidence of 24-year population growth and slight trends of decline over the past 18 years. Specifically, across the Bi-State DPS as a whole, we estimated annual average at 0.99, 0.99, and 1.02 over the one, two, and three population cycles, which equated to a 10.5 percent, 16.6 percent decrease, and 60.0 percent increase in abundance over the 11-, 18-, and 24-year cycles. Estimated abundance in 2018 had not reached numbers lower than those predicted during 1995. However, we found spatial variation in population trends across the three cycles. Bodie Hills subpopulation comprised the greatest (1,521) and exhibited average annual greater than 1.0 across all periods resulting in average annual increases of 7 percent. This relatively large subpopulation has grown 5 times larger than what was predicted in 1995 while experiencing cyclical dynamics within that period. Conversely, other smaller subpopulations within the Bi-State DPS exhibited average annual equal to or less than 1.0 resulting in estimated 10-year risks of extirpation ranging from 2.0 to 76.1 percent. In general, evidence of decline among smaller subpopulations was greatest for the most recent period (2008–18) compared to a period that encompassed three full population cycles (24-year). This difference coincides with an intense period of drought that began in 2012. For comparative purposes as part of this first objective, we conducted a similar analysis for populations of sage-grouse within Nevada and California but outside the Bi-State DPS. We developed a region-wide and distance-weighted IPM using lek count from Nevada Department of Wildlife (NDOW) and California Department of Fish and Wildlife (CDFW) databases and with telemetry data collected by USGS across 12 sage-grouse subpopulations. Our models predicted similar patterns in population cycling outside the Bi-State DPS but with much stronger evidence of long-term declines across 24 years. Specifically, median averaged across each year of the 11-, 18-, and 24-year periods resulted in average annual values of 0.94, 0.97, and 0.99, respectively. These values equate to 41.0 percent, 38.5 percent, and 21.3 percent declines over the corresponding periods. Second, we used lek count data in a state-space modeling framework to compare trends in population abundance across different spatial scales (that is, leks versus Bi-State DPS). This hierarchical framework allowed us to disentangle declines associated with climate conditions as opposed to other local level factors that might signal the need for management intervention. Specifically, we identified 7 leks that were both declining and recently decoupled from larger spatial scale trends, typically governed by climatic conditions (referred to as soft or hard signals). The goal of this analysis was to provide an early warning system that might have implications for conservation actions at local scales. Third, we developed phenological (spring, summer–fall, and winter) and reproductive life stage (nesting, early brood-rearing, and late-brood rearing) based resource selection functions using various environmental covariates. We report rankings of variable importance for each season and life stage, developed maps of habitat selection indices (HSI), binned categories representing low, moderate, and high classes of quality (where any category greater than or equal to low indicated selected habitat) for each phenological season and life stage, and produced composite maps by selected phenological and reproductive stage to estimate annual habitat. Fourth, we used for each lek within the Bi-State DPS to carry out a spatial analysis that quantified substantial changes in the distribution of occupied habitat across long- (24-year) and short- (11-year) term periods. Owing to differences among available datasets, the long-term analysis primarily reflected spatial shifts among subpopulations comprising the majority of the Bi-State DPS (that is, Bodie Hills and Long Valley) while the short-term analysis also quantified changes among subpopulations along the periphery. Over long and short-term periods, the overall distribution of occupied habitat (as measured by 99 percent utilization distributions intersecting any quantified habitat) was reduced by 20,573 ha and 55,492 ha, respectively. Occupied core areas (as measured by 50 percent utilization distributions intersecting any quantified habitat) over long-term periods were solely located in Bodie Hills and Long Valley. Although nearly all subpopulations experienced contractions in occupied overall and core distribution, Bodie Hills experienced spatial expansion that occurred with concomitant spatial contraction at Long Valley over both periods. Subpopulations at the northern (Pine Nuts), central (Sagehen) and southern (White-Mountains) extents of the Bi-State DPS also experienced spatial contraction over the short-term period. These findings, coupled with those of population trends, indicate long-term patterns in redistribution of sage-grouse from Long Valley and peripheral subpopulations to Bodie Hills. That is, sage-grouse subpopulations at the periphery are declining while the largest population at the core is increasing, which could have meaningful impacts on overall metapopulation persistence. We provide evidence for loss of occupied habitat (reduced distribution) given local extirpation of subpopulations. Fifth, we calculated percentages of selected phenological, life stage, and annual habitat that each subpopulation contributed to the Bi-State DPS. We then intersected these maps with a composite estimate of occupied habitat from the fourth objective and calculated percentages of selected habitat likely occupied by sage-grouse that each subpopulation contributed to the Bi-State DPS. These values provide evidence for loss of occupied habitat and subsequent reductions in spatial distribution given reductions in abundance and, in some cases, extirpation of leks within subpopulations. Lastly, we carried out an initial in-depth analysis of selection for irrigated pastures and wet meadows during the brood-rearing stage for the Long Valley subpopulation. We chose this subpopulation because it represents a population core, representing 26.5 percent of total sage-grouse within the Bi-State DPS, and has exhibited long-term declines in abundance and distribution. This subpopulation is highly sensitive to precipitation and other factors that influence water availability. Models predicted higher use of the interior portions of irrigated pastures and wet meadows during late brood-rearing period, which represented a potentially risky use of habitat that was exacerbated during periods of low moisture (for example, drought, reduced water delivery, or both). Sage-grouse typically used edges of riparian areas and pastures, largely because the interior of these mesic areas consisted of considerably less overhead concealment cover (for example, shrubs) that likely resulted in a higher risk of mortality. We found that a lack of water delivery to pastures in the form of overwinter precipitation or diversion ditches increased the movements of sage-grouse to the interior of pastures. Although further investigation of water delivery impacts on chick survival are warrented, our initial findings regarding resource selection may explain recent declines in population growth at Long Valley.

California, Nevada↗
USGS1975

Mineral deposits in western Saudi Arabia; a preliminary report

Mineral deposits in Saudi Arabia include a variety of deposits which were formed in many geologic environments. These include magmatic and late magmatic deposits in igneous masses, contact metamorphic deposits along the margins of igneous bodies, and stratiform sulfide deposits and veins. Notable deposits of sedimentary origin include deposits of iron oxides and phosphate. Strata-bound massive sulfide deposits containing copper, zinc, and nickel sulfides associated with pyrite and pyrrhotite in complexly deformed volcanic rocks in Saudi Arabia have been the subject of controversy. They are considered by some geologists to be of syngenetic or volcanogenic origin, and by others to be epigenetic. The principal mineral deposits in western Saudi Arabia are localized in mineral belts within tectonic zones that trend northerly, northeasterly, and northwesterly. These belts contain the exploration target areas most promising for future exploration. Noteworthy among these are: 1) the northerly-trending Bidah copper-zinc belt; 2) the Sayid copper-zinc zone; 3) the northwest-trending Nuqrah copper zinc-silver belt; and 4) the north-northwesterly-trending Al Amar belt. Gold and silver deposits are mainly localized in north-trending structural features of the Hijaz geotectonic cycle and northwest Najd trends. Saudi Arabian metal deposits known thus far contain reserves in the 2 billion dollar range. Further exploration should result in discoveries that could significantly increase this amount; Saudi Arabia may well have workable metallic and nonmetallic mineral resources for industrial developments in many parts of the Kingdom. In order to effectively carry on a search for new mineral deposits, the belts should be mapped in detail, with emphasis on the delineation of stratigraphic and structural features that control metallization. In addition, geochemical and geophysical studies should be made of promising areas to outline exploration targets. These targets could then be systematically explored.

Open-File Report↗
USGS1978

A geological and geochemical reconnaissance of the Tathlith one-degree quadrangle, sheet 19/43, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

The Tathlith one-degree quadrangle occupies an area of 11,620 sq km in the northeastern Asir region of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, in the southeastern part of the Precambrian shield. In the eastern part of the quadrangle the Precambrian rocks are covered by exposures of easterly-dipping sandstone of Cambrian or Ordovician age. A well-developed and highly integrated drainage system trending northward is worn into the Precambrian rocks, but for most of the year the wadis are dry. The Precambrian rocks of the quadrangle consist of an old, non-metamorphosed to variably metamorphosed sequence of volcanic and sedimentary rocks intruded by three main successions of plutonic and hypabyssal igneous rocks. The interlayered volcanic and sedimentary rocks occupy arcuate, north-trending fold belts in which old, rather tight north-trending folds have been refolded at least once by open folds with nearly east-trending axes. Old, north-trending left-lateral faults are associated with the fold belts and are themselves intersected by younger, northwest-trending faults. Motion on both sets of faults has been reactivated several times. The interlayered volcanic and sedimentary rocks are an eugeosynclinal sequence of graywacke and andesite with sparse marble, quartzite, and rhyolite. Andesite is the dominant component of the sequence. Plutonic or hypabyssal equivalents of the andesite intrude the volcanic-sedimentary sequence. In many places these rocks are essentially non-metamorphosed, but elsewhere they are faintly to strongly metamorphosed, or even polymetamorphosed. Dynamothermal metamorphism associated with the northerly folding, and contact metamorphism are the principal kinds of metamorphism. The metamorphic grade is mostly greenschist facies or albite-epidote amphibolite facies. The largest intrusive in the area is a batholith of regional dimension, the east side of which intrudes and divides the fold belts. Granite gneiss and granodiorite gneiss are the main components of the batholith. Biotite granite of calc-alkaline composition, and somewhat younger than the granite gneiss and granodiorite gneiss, forms northerly elongate to subcircular plutons in the gneisses and the rocks of the volcanic-sedimentary sequence.

Open-File Report↗
USGS1979

Geologic evaluation of major Landsat lineaments in Nevada and their relationship to ore districts

Analysis of diverse geologic, geophysical, and geochemical data shows that eight major lineament systems delineated in Landsat images of Nevada are morphological and tonal expressions of substantially broader structural zones. Southern Nevada is dominated by the 175 km-wide northwest-trending Walker Lane, a 150 km-wide zone of east-trending lineament systems consisting of the Pancake Range, Warm Springs, and Timpahute lineament systems, and a 125 km-wide belt of northeast-trending faults termed the Pahranagat lineament system. Northern Nevada is dominated by the northeast-trending 75-200km wide Midas Trench lineament system, which is marked by northeasterly-oriented faults, broad gravity anomalies, and the Battle Mountain heat flow high; this feature appears to extend into central Montana. The Midas Trench system is transected by the Northern Nevada Rift, a relatively narrow zone of north-northwest-trending basaltic dikes that give rise to a series of prominent aeromagnetic highs. The northwest-trending Rye Patch lineament system, situated at the northeast boundary of the Walker Lane, also intersects the Midas Trench system and is characterized by stratigraphic discontinuities and alignment of aeromagnetic anomalies. Field relationships indicate that all the lineament systems except for the Northern Nevada Rift are conjugate shears formed since mid-Miocene time during extension of the Great Basin. Metallization associated with volcanism was widespread along these systems during the 17-6 m.y. period. However, these zones appear to have been established prior to this period, probably as early as Precambr-an time. These lineament systems are interpreted to be old, fundamental, structural zones that have been reactivated episodically as stress conditions !changed in the western United States. Many metal districts are localized within these zones as magma rose along the pre-existing conduits.

Open-File Report↗
USGS1983

Slides showing aeromagnetic and gravity data for regional mineral exploration in Colorado, New Mexico, and Arizona

Examples of aeromagnetic and gravity data over 1? x 2? areas are presented for regions near the Cripple Creek mining area, Colorado, and the Lordsburg-Tyrone-Silver City mining areas, southern New Mexico and Arizona. These data indicate broad crustal structures and compositional variations that are marked by magnetization and density contrasts. The focus is on anomalies that may signal large-dimension controlling structures for the emplacement of economic mineral deposits. An example is a continuous, quasi-linear, north-trending gradient in both gravity and magnetic data located west of Cripple Creek area along long. 105? 30? W. This trend correlates with two mineral deposits of the Southern Rocky Mountains Front Range. It also correlates in part with an area of volcanic rock and with a mapped fault complex (Elkhorn-Currant Creek-Else-Westcliffe). The trend is interpreted to indicate a continuous crustal fault system, although exposures of this system are discontinuous between areas of alluvium and volcanic-rock cover. Similar geophysical trends exist in the Silver City to Tyrone area, where northeast-and northwest-trending anomalies appear to be marked by intrusion and mineralization. In this area, northwest-trending alluvial basins favor the use of geophysics to infer economically accessible but hidden bedrock whose association with exposed mineralization seems possible. An example of an inferred broad and relatively shallow, but hidden bedrock complex in association with more areally-limited mineralization is the Victorio Mountains area about 34 mi (55 km) south-southeast of Tyrone, New Mexico. The mineralization is within faulted sediments whose outcrop covers a small portion of the geophysical anomaly-complex.

Open-File Report↗
USGS1983

Description of slides showing aeromagnetic and gravity data for regional mineral exploration in Colorado, New Mexico, and Arizona

Examples of aeromagnetic and gravity data over 1? x 2? areas are presented for regions near the Cripple Creek mining area, Colorado, and the Lordsburg-Tyrone-Silver City mining areas, southern New Mexico and Arizona. These data indicate broad crustal structures and compositional variations that are marked by magnetization and density contrasts. The focus is on anomalies that may signal large-dimension controlling structures for the emplacement of economic mineral deposits. An example is a continuous, quasi-linear, north-trending gradient in both gravity and magnetic data located west of Cripple Creek area along long. 105? 30? W. This trend correlates with two mineral deposits of the Southern Rocky Mountains Front Range. It also correlates in part with an area of volcanic rock and with a mapped fault complex (Elkhorn-Currant Creek-Else-Westcliffe). The trend is interpreted to indicate a continuous crustal fault-system, although exposures of this system are discontinuous between areas of alluvium and volcanic-rock cover. Similar geophysical trends exist in the Silver City to Tyrone area, where northeast-and northwest-trending anomalies appear to be marked by intrusion and mineralization. In this area, northwest-trending alluvial basins favor the use of geophysics to infer economically accessible but hidden bedrock whose association with exposed mineralization seems possible. An example of an inferred broad and relatively shallow, but hidden bedrock complex in association with more areally-limited mineralization is the Victorio Mountains area about 34 mi (55 km) south-southeast of Tyrone, New Mexico. The mineralization is within faulted sediments whose outcrop covers a small portion of the geophysical anomaly-complex.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico↗
USGS2005

Hydrology and water quality of lakes and streams in Orange County, Florida

Orange County, Florida, is continuing to experience a large growth in population. In 1920, the population of Orange County was less than 20,000; in 2000, the population was about 896,000. The amount of urban area around Orlando has increased considerably, especially in the northwest part of the County. The eastern one-third of the County, however, had relatively little increase in urbanization from 1977-97. The increase of population, tourism, and industry in Orange County and nearby areas changed land use; land that was once agricultural has become urban, industrial, and major recreation areas. These changes could impact surface-water resources that are important for wildlife habitat, for esthetic reasons, and potentially for public supply. Streamflow characteristics and water quality could be affected in various ways. As a result of changing land use, changes in the hydrology and water quality of Orange County's lakes and streams could occur. Median runoff in 10 selected Orange County streams ranges from about 20 inches per year (in/yr) in the Wekiva River to about 1.1 in/yr in Cypress Creek. The runoff for the Wekiva River is significantly higher than other river basins because of the relatively constant spring discharge that sustains streamflow, even during drought conditions. The low runoff for the Cypress Creek basin results from a lack of sustained inflow from ground water and a relatively large area of lakes within the drainage basin. Streamflow characteristics for 13 stations were computed on an annual basis and examined for temporal trends. Results of the trend testing indicate changes in annual mean streamflow, 1-day high streamflow, or 7-day low streamflow at 8 of the 13 stations. However, changes in 7-day low streamflow are more common than changes in annual mean or 1-day high streamflow. There is probably no single reason for the changes in 7-day low streamflows, and for most streams, it is difficult to determine definite reasons for the flow increases. Low flows in the Econlockhatchee River at Chuluota have increased because of discharge of treated wastewater since 1982. However, trends in increasing 7-day low streamflow are evident before 1982, which cannot be attributed to wastewater discharge. Some of the increases in 7-day low flows may be related to drainage changes resulting from increased development in Orange County. Development for most purposes, including those as diverse as cattle grazing and residential construction, may involve modification of surface drainage through stream channelization and construction of canals. These changes in land drainage can lower the water table, resulting in reductions of regional evapotranspiration rates and increased streamflow. Another possible cause of increasing low flows in streams is use of water from the Floridan aquifer system for irrigation. Runoff of irrigation water or increased seepage from irrigated areas to streams could increase base streamflow compared to natural conditions. Water-level data were analyzed to determine temporal trends from 83 lakes that had more than 15 years of record. There were significant temporal trends in 33 of the 83 lakes (40 percent) over the entire period of record. Of these 33 lakes, 14 had increasing water levels and 19 lakes had decreasing water levels. The downward trends in long-term lake levels could in part be due to high rainfall accumulation in 1960-1961, which included precipitation from Hurricane Donna (September 1960). The high rainfall resulted in historical high-water levels in many lakes in 1960 or 1961. A large range of water-quality conditions exists in lakes and streams of Orange County (2000-01). Specific conductance in lake samples ranged from 57 to 1,185 microsiemens per centimeter. Values of pH ranged from 3.2 to 8.7 in stream samples and 4.6 to 9.6 in lake samples. Total nitrogen concentrations ranged from less than 0.2 to 7.1 milligrams per liter (mg/L) as nitrogen in stream samples, and

Scientific Investigations Report↗