Geology Reports⌕ Search

SEARCH · Geology Reports

Results for “Nature Methods”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,729 records · Page 96Linked to original sources
USGS2014

A nuclear DNA perspective on delineating evolutionarily significant lineages in polyploids: the case of the endangered shortnose sturgeon ( Acipenser brevirostrum )

The shortnose sturgeon, Acipenser brevirostrum , oft considered a phylogenetic relic, is listed as an “endangered species threatened with extinction” in the US and “Vulnerable” on the IUCN Red List. Effective conservation of A. brevirostrum depends on understanding its diversity and evolutionary processes, yet challenges associated with the polyploid nature of its nuclear genome have heretofore limited population genetic analysis to maternally inherited haploid characters. We developed a suite of polysomic microsatellite DNA markers and characterized a sample of 561 shortnose sturgeon collected from major extant populations along the North American Atlantic coast. The 181 alleles observed at 11 loci were scored as binary loci and the data were subjected to multivariate ordination, Bayesian clustering, hierarchical partitioning of variance, and among-population distance metric tests. The methods uncovered moderately high levels of gene diversity suggesting population structuring across and within three metapopulations (Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast) that encompass seven demographically discrete and evolutionarily distinct lineages. The predicted groups are consistent with previously described behavioral patterns, especially dispersal and migration, supporting the interpretation that A. brevirostrum exhibit adaptive differences based on watershed. Combined with results of prior genetic (mitochondrial DNA) and behavioral studies, the current work suggests that dispersal is an important factor in maintaining genetic diversity in A. brevirostrum and that the basic unit for conservation management is arguably the local population.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS1976

Determining population size of territorial red-winged blackbirds

Population sizes of territorial male red-winged blackbirds ( Agelaius phoeniceus ) were determined with counts of territorial males (area count) and a Petersen-Lincoln Index method for roadsides (roadside estimate). Weather conditions and time of day did not influence either method. Combined roadside estimates had smaller error bounds than the individual transect estimates and were not hindered by the problem of zero recaptures. Roadside estimates were usually one-half as large as the area counts, presumably due to an observer bias for marked birds. The roadside estimate provides only an index of major changes in populations of territorial male redwings. When the roadside estimate is employed, the area count should be used to determine the amount and nature of observer bias. For small population surveys, the area count is probably more reliable and accurate than the roadside estimate.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗
USGS2006

Relative coastal change-potential assessment of Kenai Fjords National Park

A change-potential index (CPI) was used to map the relative coastal change-potential of the shoreline to future sea-level changes within Kenai Fjords National Park (KEFJ) in south-central Alaska. The CPI ranks the following parameters in terms of their physical contribution to coastal change: geomorphology, regional coastal slope, rate of relative sea-level change, historical shoreline change rates, mean tidal range, and mean significant wave height. The rankings for each input variable were combined, and an index value was calculated for 1-minute grid cells covering the park. The CPI highlights those regions where the physical effects of sea-level and coastal changes might be the greatest. This multi-parametric approach combines the coastal system's potential for change with its natural ability to adapt to changing environmental conditions, yielding a quantitative, although relative, measure of the park's natural susceptibility to the effects of sea-level variation. The CPI provides an objective technique for evaluation and long-term planning by scientists and park managers. The CPI was developed from a Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) typically applied to coastlines undergoing long-term sea-level rise. The CPI is modified from the CVI and applied to the emergent coast of Kenai Fjords National Park to understand the limits of applying this type of assessment method in a variety of sea-level settings. Kenai Fjords National Park consists of sand and gravel beaches, rock cliffs, calving tidewater glaciers, mudflats, and alluvial fans. The areas within Kenai Fjords National Park that are likely to be most susceptible to coastal change as a result of sea-level change are tidewater glaciers and outer coast shorelines of unconsolidated sediment where shoreline erosion potential is high and wave energy is high.

Alaska↗
USGS1961

Surface water records of New Mexico, water year 1961

The surface-water records for the 1961 water year for gaging stations, partial-record stations, and miscellaneous sites within the State of New Mexico are given in this report. For convenience there are also included for a few pertinent gaging stations in bordering States. The records were collected and computed by the Water Resources Division of the U. S. Geological Survey, under the direction of W. L. Heckler, district engineer, Surface Water Branch. This report marks the beginning of a new method of presenting, annually, basic data on surface-water records by States. Through September 30, 1960, the records of discharge and stage of streams and contents and stage of lakes or reservoirs were published in an annual series of U. S. Geological Survey water-supply papers entitled "Surface Water Supply of the United States." Since 1951 there has been 20 volumes in the series; each volume covered an area whose boundaries coincided with those of certain natural drainage areas. The records in New Mexico were contained in Parts 7, 8, and 9 of that series. Beginning with the 1961 water year, streamflow records and related data will be released by the Geological Survey in annual reports on a State-boundary basis. Distribution of these basic-data reports will be limited and primarily for local needs. The records later will be published in Geological Survey water-supply paper at 5-year intervals. These 5-year water-supply papers will show daily discharge and will be compiled on the same geographical areas previously used for the annual series; however, some of the 14 parts of conterminous United States will be further subdivided. The records for New Mexico will be published in water-supply papers covering Part 7 for stations in the Lower Mississippi River drainage, Part 8 for Western Gulf of Mexico drainage, and Part 9 for Colorado River drainage. For 1960 water year, the WSP Numbers for these parts were 1711, 1712, 1713 respectively. A compilation of records for these parts through 1950 water year is contained in WSP Nos. 1311, 1312, 1313 respectively; a 1951-60 compilation is currently being prepared, and WSP Nos. will be 1731, 1732, 1733.

New Mexico↗
USGS2002

Sources of metal loads to the Alamosa River and estimation of seasonal and annual metal loads for the Alamosa River basin, Colorado, 1995-97

Metal contamination in the upper Alamosa River Basin has occurred for decades from the Summitville Mine site, from other smaller mines, and from natural, metal-enriched acidic drainage in the basin. In 1995, the need to quantify contamination from various source areas in the basin and to quantify the spatial, seasonal, and annual metal loads in the basin was identified. Data collection occurred from 1995 through 1997 at numerous sites to address data gaps. Metal loads were calculated and the percentages of metal load contributions from tributaries to three risk exposure areas were determined. Additionally, a modified time-interval method was used to estimate seasonal and annual metal loads in the Alamosa River and Wightman Fork. Sources of dissolved and total-recoverable aluminum, copper, iron, and zinc loads were determined for Exposure Areas 3a, 3b, and 3c. Alum Creek is the predominant contributor of aluminum, copper, iron, and zinc loads to Exposure Area 3a. In general, Wightman Fork was the predominant source of metals to Exposure Area 3b, particularly during the snowmelt and summer-flow periods. During the base-flow period, however, aluminum and iron loads from Exposure Area 3a were the dominant source of these metals to Exposure Area 3b. Jasper and Burnt Creeks generally contributed less than 10 percent of the metal loads to Exposure Area 3b. On a few occasions, however, Jasper and Burnt Creeks contributed a substantial percentage of the loads to the Alamosa River. The metal loads calculated for Exposure Area 3c result from upstream sources; the primary upstream sources are Wightman Fork, Alum Creek, and Iron Creek. Tributaries in Exposure Area 3c did not contribute substantially to the metal load in the Alamosa River. In many instances, the percentage of dissolved and/or total-recoverable metal load contribution from a tributary or the combined percentage of metal load contribution was greater than 100 percent of the metal load at the nearest downstream site on the Alamosa River. These data indicate that metal partitioning and metal deposition from the water column to the streambed may be occurring in Exposure Areas 3a, 3b, and 3c. Metals that are deposited to the streambed probably are resuspended and transported downstream during high streamflow periods such as during snowmelt runoff and rainfall runoff. Seasonal and annual dissolved and totalrecoverable aluminum, copper, iron, and zinc loads> for 1995?97 were estimated for Exposure Areas 1, 2, 3a, 3b, and 3c. During 1995?97, many tons of metals were transported annually through each exposure area. Generally, the largest estimated annual totalrecoverable metal mass for most metals was in 1995. The smallest estimated annual total-recoverable metal mass was in 1996, which also had the smallest annual streamflow. In 1995 and 1997, more than 60 percent of the annual total-recoverable metal loads generally was transported through each exposure area during the snowmelt period. A comparison of the estimated storm load at each site to the corresponding annual load indicated that storms contribute less than 2 percent of the annual load at any site and about 5 to 20 percent of the load during the summer-flow period.

Colorado↗
USGS2022

Remote sensing application for landslide detection, monitoring along eastern Lake Michigan (Miami Park, MI)

We assessed the nature and spatial and temporal patterns of deformation over the Miami Park bluffs on the eastern margin of Lake Michigan and investigated the factors controlling its observed deformation. Our approach involved the following steps: (1) extracting bluff deformation rates (velocities along the line of sight of the satellite) using a stack of Sentinel-1A radar imagery in ascending acquisition geometry acquired between 2017 and 2021 and applying the Intermittent Small Baseline Subset (ISBAS) InSAR time series analysis method; (2) generating high-resolution (5 cm) elevation models and orthophotos from temporal unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) surveys acquired in 2017, 2019, and 2021; and (3) comparing the temporal variations in mass wasting events to other relevant datasets including the ISBAS-based bluff deformation time series, lake level (LL) variations, and local glacial stratigraphy. We identified areas witnessing high line-of-sight (LOS) deformation rates (up to −21 mm/year) along the bluff from the ISBAS analysis and seasonal deformation patterns associated with freeze-thaw cycles, suggesting a causal effect. The acceleration of slope failures detected from field and UAV acquisitions correlated with high LLs and intensified onshore wave energy in 2020. The adopted methodology successfully predicts landslides caused by freezes and thaws of the slope face by identifying prolonged slow deformation preceding slope failures, but it does not predict the catastrophic landslides preceded by short-lived LOS deformation related to LL rise.

Michigan↗
USGS2012

Evaluation of Bayesian estimation of a hidden continuous-time Markov chain model with application to threshold violation in water-quality indicators

Natural resource managers require information concerning the frequency, duration, and long-term probability of occurrence of water-quality indicator (WQI) violations of defined thresholds. The timing of these threshold crossings often is hidden from the observer, who is restricted to relatively infrequent observations. Here, a model for the hidden process is linked with a model for the observations, and the parameters describing duration, return period, and long-term probability of occurrence are estimated using Bayesian methods. A simulation experiment is performed to evaluate the approach under scenarios based on the equivalent of a total monitoring period of 5-30 years and an observation frequency of 1-50 observations per year. Given constant threshold crossing rate, accuracy and precision of parameter estimates increased with longer total monitoring period and more-frequent observations. Given fixed monitoring period and observation frequency, accuracy and precision of parameter estimates increased with longer times between threshold crossings. For most cases where the long-term probability of being in violation is greater than 0.10, it was determined that at least 600 observations are needed to achieve precise estimates. An application of the approach is presented using 22 years of quasi-weekly observations of acid-neutralizing capacity from Deep Run, a stream in Shenandoah National Park, Virginia. The time series also was sub-sampled to simulate monthly and semi-monthly sampling protocols. Estimates of the long-term probability of violation were unbiased despite sampling frequency; however, the expected duration and return period were over-estimated using the sub-sampled time series with respect to the full quasi-weekly time series.

Journal of Environmental Informatics↗
USGS2014

Variable population exposure and distributed travel speeds in least-cost tsunami evacuation modelling

Evacuation of the population from a tsunami hazard zone is vital to reduce life-loss due to inundation. Geospatial least-cost distance modelling provides one approach to assessing tsunami evacuation potential. Previous models have generally used two static exposure scenarios and fixed travel speeds to represent population movement. Some analyses have assumed immediate departure or a common evacuation departure time for all exposed population. Here, a method is proposed to incorporate time-variable exposure, distributed travel speeds, and uncertain evacuation departure time into an existing anisotropic least-cost path distance framework. The method is demonstrated for hypothetical local-source tsunami evacuation in Napier City, Hawke's Bay, New Zealand. There is significant diurnal variation in pedestrian evacuation potential at the suburb level, although the total number of people unable to evacuate is stable across all scenarios. Whilst some fixed travel speeds approximate a distributed speed approach, others may overestimate evacuation potential. The impact of evacuation departure time is a significant contributor to total evacuation time. This method improves least-cost modelling of evacuation dynamics for evacuation planning, casualty modelling, and development of emergency response training scenarios. However, it requires detailed exposure data, which may preclude its use in many situations.

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences↗
USGS2001

The Foraging Ecology of Royal and Sandwich Terns in North Carolina, USA

Population sizes of territorial male red-winged blackbirds (Agelaius phoeniceus) were determined with counts of territorial males (area count) and a Petersen-Lincoln Index method for roadsides (roadside estimate). Weather conditions and time of day did not influence either method. Combined roadside estimates had smaller error bounds than the individual transect estimates and were not hindered by the problem of zero recaptures. Roadside estimates were usually one-half as large as the area counts, presumably due to an observer bias for marked birds. The roadside estimate provides only an index of major changes in populations of territorial male redwings. When the roadside estimate is employed, the area count should be used to determine the amount and nature of observer bias. For small population surveys, the area count is probably more reliable and accurate than the roadside estimate.

Waterbirds↗
USGS2012

A method for estimating spatially variable seepage and hydrualic conductivity in channels with very mild slopes

Infiltration along ephemeral channels plays an important role in groundwater recharge in arid regions. A model is presented for estimating spatial variability of seepage due to streambed heterogeneity along channels based on measurements of streamflow-front velocities in initially dry channels. The diffusion-wave approximation to the Saint-Venant equations, coupled with Philip's equation for infiltration, is connected to the groundwater model MODFLOW and is calibrated by adjusting the saturated hydraulic conductivity of the channel bed. The model is applied to portions of two large water delivery canals, which serve as proxies for natural ephemeral streams. Estimated seepage rates compare well with previously published values. Possible sources of error stem from uncertainty in Manning's roughness coefficients, soil hydraulic properties and channel geometry. Model performance would be most improved through more frequent longitudinal estimates of channel geometry and thalweg elevation, and with measurements of stream stage over time to constrain wave timing and shape. This model is a potentially valuable tool for estimating spatial variability in longitudinal seepage along intermittent and ephemeral channels over a wide range of bed slopes and the influence of seepage rates on groundwater levels.

Hydrological Processes↗
USGS2025

Optimizing per vessel hour capture efficiency for rare, heterogeneously distributed fishes: Invasive grass carp Ctenopharyngodon idella in the Sandusky River

Natural resources management is often concerned with conserving rare-native or controlling rare-invasive fishes. Informing and assessing conservation and control efforts frequently requires information from captures. When little is understood about spatial and temporal fish distributions, captures can be infrequent and costly. If successful management depends on effective management response, optimizing for efficiency may be the difference between success and failure. We compared per vessel hour capture efficiencies for invasive grass carp ( Ctenopharyngodon idella ) between two methods: electrofishing-only (electrofishing) and in combination with a trammel net (combination). Capture and effort information including 174 captures from 1853 capture attempts from 1706 total hours of effort in the Sandusky River, OH, USA from 2020–2023 was used to fit a generalized linear model. Captures were allowed to vary by river kilometer, month, and year to account for unequal capture rates and effort. Captures were offset by total vessel hours or the count of independent efforts to compare methods that prioritize detection at a single location (e.g., combination) to methods that prioritize exploiting more locations (e.g., electrofishing). Including trammel nets was intended to increase single site detection, but we found that electrofishing-only was at least 2.4x more efficient (catch per vessel hour) than when combined with a trammel net with no significant difference in catch per removal effort. Complex methods intended to increase single site detection may reduce the number of efforts completed. Therefore, overall capture efficiency and total capture numbers for rare fish may be increased through methods that prioritize per-hour efficiency.

Ohio↗
USGS2013

A sediment budget for the southern reach in San Francisco Bay, CA: Implications for habitat restoration

The South Bay Salt Pond Restoration Project is overseeing the restoration of about 6000 ha of former commercial salt-evaporation ponds to tidal marsh and managed wetlands in the southern reach of San Francisco Bay (SFB). As a result of regional groundwater overdrafts prior to the 1970s, parts of the project area have subsided below sea-level and will require between 29 and 45 million m 3 of sediment to raise the surface of the subsided areas to elevations appropriate for tidal marsh colonization and development. Therefore, a sufficient sediment supply to the far south SFB subembayment is a critical variable for achieving restoration goals. Although both major tributaries to far south SFB have been seasonally gaged for sediment since 2004, the sediment flux at the Dumbarton Narrows, the bayward boundary of far south SFB, has not been quantified until recently. Using daily suspended-sediment flux data from the gages on Guadalupe River and Coyote Creek, combined with continuous suspended-sediment flux data at Dumbarton Narrows, we computed a sediment budget for far south SFB during Water Years 2009–2011. A Monte Carlo approach was used to quantify the uncertainty of the flux estimates. The sediment flux past Dumbarton Narrows from the north dominates the input to the subembayment. However, environmental conditions in the spring can dramatically influence the direction of springtime flux, which appears to be a dominant influence on the net annual flux. It is estimated that up to several millennia may be required for natural tributary sediments to fill the accommodation space of the subsided former salt ponds, whereas supply from the rest of the bay could fill the space in several centuries. Uncertainty in the measurement of sediment flux is large, in part because small suspended-sediment concentration differences between flood and ebb tides can lead to large differences in total mass exchange. Using Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the random error associated with this uncertainty provides a more statistically rigorous method of quantifying this uncertainty than the more typical “sum of errors” approach. The results of this study reinforce the need for measurement of estuarine sediment fluxes over multiple years (multiple hydrologic conditions) to adequately detail the variability in flux. Additionally, the timing of breaching events for the restoration project could be tied to annual hydrologic conditions to capitalize on increased regional sediment supply.

California↗
USGS2025

Uncertainty quantification of geophysical and hydrologic parameters estimated from borehole nuclear magnetic resonance data

Borehole nuclear magnetic resonance (bNMR) data are typically used to infer in situ hydrologic properties. Partial water content as a function of pore size is estimated by fitting the measured NMR response to a multi-exponential T 2 distribution, and the sum of estimated T 2 amplitudes equals the total volumetric water content. From these estimated parameters, several empirical relationships are commonly used to infer hydraulic conductivity from the NMR-estimated water content and T 2 distribution. Often, parameters are estimated through deterministic inversion methods that produce a single best-fit estimate, but do not reflect uncertainties in model parameters. Here, a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (McMC) approach for analyzing bNMR data is developed that allows for comprehensive uncertainty quantification of NMR parameters and derived hydrologic properties. The underlying model that describes the T 2 distribution is defined by a set of spline interpolation points. The number of interpolation points is allowed to vary in a trans-dimensional algorithm that naturally favors simple models with fewer interpolation points, allowing the data to inform the necessary level of model complexity. Additionally, data error is estimated as an unknown parameter. Analysis of the ensemble of models output from the McMC algorithm provides useful details on the range of plausible T 2 distributions that can fit a measured bNMR decay curve, as well as uncertainty estimates of total water content. The ensemble of NMR parameters can also be propagated through commonly used relationships to produce uncertainty estimates on derived parameters such as bound/capillary/mobile water content or hydraulic conductivity.

JGR Machine Learning and Computation↗
USGS2014

Delineation of marsh types of the Texas coast from Corpus Christi Bay to the Sabine River in 2010

Coastal zone managers and researchers often require detailed information regarding emergent marsh vegetation types for modeling habitat capacities and needs of marsh-reliant wildlife (such as waterfowl and alligator). Detailed information on the extent and distribution of marsh vegetation zones throughout the Texas coast has been historically unavailable. In response, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation and collaboration with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service via the Gulf Coast Joint Venture, Texas A&M University-Kingsville, the University of Louisiana-Lafayette, and Ducks Unlimited, Inc., has produced a classification of marsh vegetation types along the middle and upper Texas coast from Corpus Christi Bay to the Sabine River. This study incorporates approximately 1,000 ground reference locations collected via helicopter surveys in coastal marsh areas and about 2,000 supplemental locations from fresh marsh, water, and “other” (that is, nonmarsh) areas. About two-thirds of these data were used for training, and about one-third were used for assessing accuracy. Decision-tree analyses using Rulequest See5 were used to classify emergent marsh vegetation types by using these data, multitemporal satellite-based multispectral imagery from 2009 to 2011, a bare-earth digital elevation model (DEM) based on airborne light detection and ranging (lidar), alternative contemporary land cover classifications, and other spatially explicit variables believed to be important for delineating the extent and distribution of marsh vegetation communities. Image objects were generated from segmentation of high-resolution airborne imagery acquired in 2010 and were used to refine the classification. The classification is dated 2010 because the year is both the midpoint of the multitemporal satellite-based imagery (2009–11) classified and the date of the high-resolution airborne imagery that was used to develop image objects. Overall accuracy corrected for bias (accuracy estimate incorporates true marginal proportions) was 91 percent (95 percent confidence interval [CI]: 89.2–92.8), with a kappa statistic of 0.79 (95 percent CI: 0.77–0.81). The classification performed best for saline marsh (user’s accuracy 81.5 percent; producer’s accuracy corrected for bias 62.9 percent) but showed a lesser ability to discriminate intermediate marsh (user’s accuracy 47.7 percent; producer’s accuracy corrected for bias 49.5 percent). Because of confusion in intermediate and brackish marsh classes, an alternative classification containing only three marsh types was created in which intermediate and brackish marshes were combined into a single class. Image objects were reattributed by using this alternative three-marsh-type classification. Overall accuracy, corrected for bias, of this more general classification was 92.4 percent (95 percent CI: 90.7–94.2), and the kappa statistic was 0.83 (95 percent CI: 0.81–0.85). Mean user’s accuracy for marshes within the four-marsh-type and three-marsh-type classifications was 65.4 percent and 75.6 percent, respectively, whereas mean producer’s accuracy was 56.7 percent and 65.1 percent, respectively. This study provides a more objective and repeatable method for classifying marsh types of the middle and upper Texas coast at an extent and greater level of detail than previously available for the study area. The seamless classification produced through this work is now available to help State agencies (such as the Texas Parks and Wildlife Department) and landscape-scale conservation partnerships (such as the Gulf Coast Prairie Landscape Conservation Cooperative and the Gulf Coast Joint Venture) to develop and (or) refine conservation plans targeting priority natural resources. Moreover, these data may improve projections of landscape change and serve as a baseline for monitoring future changes resulting from chronic and episodic stressors.

Texas↗
USGS1956

The physical behavior and geologic control of radon in mountain streams

Radon measurement were made in several small, turbulent mountain streams in the Wasatch Mountains near Salt Lake City and Ogden, Utah, to determine the relationship between the distribution of radon and its geologic environment. In this area, the distribution of radon in streams can be sued to locate points where relatively large amounts of radon-bearing ground water enter the stream, although other evidence of spring activity may be lacking. These points of influence ground water are marked by abrupt increases (as much as two orders of magnitude within a distance of 50 feet) in the radon content of the stream waters. The excess radon in the stream water is then rapidly lost to the atmosphere through stream turbulence. The rate of radon dissipation is an exponential function, of different slopes, with respect to distance of streamflow, and depend upon the rate and volume of streamflow, and the gradient and nature of the stream channel. The higher radon concentration can be generally related to specific stratigraphic horizons in several different drainage area. Thus, lithologic units which act as the primary aquifers can be identifies. In one area, thrust faults were found to control he influx of ground water into the stream. Estimates, based on radon concentration in stream and related spring waters, can also be made of the major increments of addition of ground water to streamflow where conventional methods such as stream gaging are not practical. The radon in the waters studied was found to be almost completely unsupported by radium in solution.

Utah↗
USGS2023

Linear and landscape disturbances alter Mojave desert tortoise movement behavior

Introduction: Animal movements are influenced by landscape features; disturbances to the landscape can alter movements, dispersal, and ultimately connectivity among populations. Faster or longer movements adjacent to a localized disturbance or within disturbed areas could indicate reduced habitat quality whereas slower or shorter movements and reduced movements may indicate greater availability of resources. The Mojave desert tortoise ( Gopherus agassizii ) is a threatened species that is challenged by anthropogenic disturbances. Methods: We studied tortoise movements using Global Positioning System (GPS) loggers at multiple sites in the Mojave Desert of Nevada and California. Tortoises at our sites encountered localized, linear human infrastructure, including paved roads, dirt roads, and fences, as well as landscape-scale disturbances [wildfire, off highway vehicle use (OHV), livestock grazing area]. We fit two-state (moving and encamped) Hidden Markov models to GPS logger data to infer how tortoise movement behavior relates to anthropogenic and natural features. Results: We found that temporal covariates, individual-level random effects (intercepts), and sex best explained state transition probability in all sites. We compared relationships between tortoise movement and linear disturbances, which varied depending on site and context. Tortoises made longer movements within the OHV recreation area, near most dirt roads, and near a low-traffic paved road, indicating that tortoises avoid these habitat disturbances. Conversely, tortoises made shorter movements in areas of higher slope and near highways, suggesting that these features may restrict movement or provide resources that result in prolonged use (e.g., forage or drinking locations). Tortoises that encountered fences around utility-scale solar installations were more active and made longer movements near fences, indicative of pacing behavior. Discussion: These results provide insight into how different disturbances alter tortoise movement behavior and modify tortoise habitat use, providing information that can be used to manage tortoise habitat.

California, Nevada↗
USGS1988

Applications of a simulation model to decisions in mallard management

A system comprising simulation models and data bases for habitat availability and nest success rates was used to predict results from a mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) management plan and to compare six management methods with a control. Individual treatments in the applications included land purchase for waterfowl production, wetland easement purchase, lease of uplands for waterfowl management, cropland retirement, use of no-till winter wheat, delayed cutting of alfalfa, installation of nest baskets, nesting island construction, and use of predator-resistant fencing.The simulations predicted that implementation of the management plan would increase recruits by 24%. Nest baskets were the most effective treatment, accounting for 20.4% of the recruits. No-till winter wheat was the second most effective, accounting for 5.9% of the recruits. Wetland loss due to drainage would cause an 11% loss of breeding population in 10 years.The models were modified to account for migrational homing. The modification indicated that migrational homing would enhance the effects of management. Nest success rates were critical contributions to individual management methods. The most effective treatments, such as nest baskets, had high success rates and affected a large portion of the breeding population.Economic analyses indicated that nest baskets would be the most economical of the three techniques tested. The applications indicated that the system is a useful tool to aid management decisions, but data are scarce for several important variables. Basic research will be required to adequately model the effect of migrational homing and density dependence on production. The comprehensive nature of predictions desired by managers will also require that production models like the one described here be extended to encompass the entire annual cycle of waterfowl.

Fish and Wildlife Technical Report↗
USGS2019

Climate change adaptation for coastal national wildlife refuges

National Wildlife Refuges (NWRs) along the East Coast of the United States protect habitat for a host of wildlife species, while also offering storm surge protection, improving water quality, supporting nurseries for commercially important fish and shellfish, and providing recreation opportunities for coastal communities. Yet in the last century, coastal ecosystems in the eastern U.S. have been severely altered by human development activities as well as sea-level rise and more frequent extreme events related to climate change. These influences threaten the ability of NWRs to protect our nation’s natural resources and to sustain their many beneficial services. Through this project, researchers are collaborating with managers of the North Carolina Coastal Refuges Complex, Cape Romain NWR, South Carolina, and other local interested partners to assist with their long-term planning under uncertain conditions regarding sea-level rise and other global change processes. Researchers are using a variety of state-of-the-art approaches, including formal decision science for systematically analyzing management alternatives and scenario planning methods for engaging with stakeholders to explore possible futures. These approaches are aimed at helping NWR staff develop management objectives, identify and weigh potential management actions for adaptation, and generate decision-support tools and models. Outcomes and products from these efforts will aid managers as they plan for and adapt to the complex challenges facing the NWR system as changing climate and other conditions make their work increasingly more difficult.

Final Project Memorandum↗