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At least 1,729 records · Page 96Linked to original sources
USGS2015

Special considerations for specimen collections that may be involved in law enforcement cases

Causes of mortality in wildlife include natural conditions—such as the viral, bacterial, and fungal diseases discussed in other chapters of this manual—and human intervention. Direct human intervention in wildlife deaths may be associated with individual human actions, such as gunshot or poisonings, or with institutions, such as wind farms or mining operations. Mortality that can be directly attributed to humans may be considered a crime based on the animal(s) affected and (or) the agent used. Wildlife laws were established to protect our nation’s wildlife resources and assist in conserving healthy populations of native wildlife. A variety of laws pertain to wildlife, such as the Migratory Bird Treaty Act, which makes it illegal, except as permitted, to capture, kill, or possess a portion or all of any migratory bird, a member of the group that includes the vast majority of wild birds present in the United States. Similar to pathogens that can spread unchecked through a wild population, a person or an institution that illegally kills wildlife may continue this practice indefinitely or until the illegal activities are detected and addressed. Convicting the perpetrator of a crime, however, requires that certain practices and procedures be followed so that a solid legal case can be constructed. As with any crime, investigation of the event is led by law enforcement personnel who are well-versed in the applicable laws, oversee the collection of evidence, and pursue persons or entities of interest. These individuals are uniquely qualified and trained to maintain the integrity of evidence, evaluate suspects to effectively prosecute the case, and effect the penalties of the law. The investigation of direct crimes against humans may involve teams of 5–10 law enforcement agents and specialists—each with a certain focus such as blood spatter, fingerprints, or ballistics—in processing a crime scene. In contrast, investigations of crimes against wildlife generally involve markedly fewer wildlife law enforcement agents, and in many instances of unlawful wildlife death, only one law enforcement agent is available to process an entire crime scene and work on a case. Thus, the assistance of individuals familiar with the geographical area, the endemic animal populations, and the local ecology can be very important for building an effective case. The aims of this chapter are to 1) help biologists or field personnel recognize the signs that indicate a crime may have been committed, and 2) to give readers a basic understanding of how a wildlife crime scene is processed. This chapter is not intended to give readers the tools to investigate a crime scene alone, but will hopefully make them a valuable asset to law enforcement agents who respond to the scene. An effectively processed case, resulting in prosecution of a suspect, supports the law as a deterrent to future acts that could endanger the conservation of wildlife.

Techniques and Methods↗
USGS2001

Analysis of ambient conditions and simulation of hydrodynamics, constituent transport, and water-quality characteristics in Lake Maumelle, Arkansas, 1991-92

Lake Maumelle is the major drinking-water source for the Little Rock metropolitan area in central Arkansas. Urban and agricultural development has increased in the Lake Maumelle Basin and information is needed related to constituent transport and water quality response to changes in constituent loading or hydrologic regime. This report characterizes ambient conditions in Lake Maumelle and its major tributary, Maumelle River; describes the calibration and verification of a numerical model of hydrodynamics and water quality; and provides several simulations that describe constituent transport and water quality response to changes in constituent loading and hydrologic regime. Ambient hydrologic and water-quality conditions demonstrate the relatively undisturbed nature of Lake Maumelle and the Maumelle River. Nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations were low, one to two orders of magnitude lower than estimates of national background nutrient concentrations. Phosphorus and chlorophyll a concentrations in Lake Maumelle demonstrate its oligotrophic/mesotrophic condition. However, concentrations of chlorophyll a appeared to increase since 1990 within the upper and middle reaches of the reservoir. A two-dimensional, laterally averaged hydrodynamic and water-quality model developed and calibrated for Lake Maumelle simulates water level, currents, heat transport and temperature distribution, conservative material transport, and the transport and transformation of 11 chemical constituents. Simulations included the movement and dispersion of spills or releases in the reservoir during stratified and unstratified conditions, release of the fish nursery pond off the southern shore of Lake Maumelle, and algal responses to changes in external loading. The model was calibrated using 1991 data and verified using 1992 data. Simulated temperature and dissolved oxygen concentrations related well when compared to measured values. Simulated nutrient and algal biomass also related reasonably well when compared to measured values. A simulated spill of conservative material at the upper end of Lake Maumelle during a major storm event took less than 102 hours to disperse the entire length of the reservoir. Simulation of a nursery pond release into a tributary to Lake Maumelle demonstrated how the released water plunges within the receiving embayment and enters the main stem of the reservoir at mid depths. Simulations of algal response to increases of nitrogen and phosphorus loads demonstrate the phosphorus limiting condition in Lake Maumelle. Results from this study will provide water-resource management with information to better understand how changes in hydrology and water quality in the basin affects water quality in the reservoir. With this information, managers will be able to more effectively manage their drinking-water source supply.

Arkansas↗
USGS2015

Introduction to watershed ecosystem services: Chapter 1

Humans derive a great number of goods and services from terrestrial ecosystems (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2003, 2005). Some, like timber, fruits, bush meat, and other forest based food stuffs, are evident but others are not so obvious. Increasingly policy makers have realized the importance of forests and other ecosystems in sequestering carbon, as clearing of once vibrant vegetation or draining of swamps releases carbon dioxide (U.S. DOE, 2012) and where planting trees – particularly in the tropics - takes carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere (Bala et al., 2007). Scientists and conservationists have long called our attention to the value of Neotropical landscapes for biodiversity conservation as forests and other ecosystems harbor vast numbers of species. In recent decades conservationists and policy makers have also highlighted the potential of forests and other ecosystems to regulate stream flows (Ibáñez et al., 2002, Laurance, 2007 but also see Calder et al., 2007) and play a role in assuring clean water (Uriarte et al., 2011). All of these goods and services are part of what is collectively referred to as ecosystem services or goods and services that are provided to humanity through the unimpeded natural function of the ecosystem.

Book chapter↗
USGS2020

Drivers of landscape change in the northwest boreal region

The northwest boreal region (NWB) of North America is a land of extremes. Extending more than 1.3 million square kilometers (330 million acres), it encompasses the entire spectrum between inundated wetlands below sea level to the tallest peak in North America. Permafrost gradients span from nearly continuous to absent. Boreal ecosystems are inherently dynamic and continually change over decades to millennia. The braided rivers that shape the valleys and wetlands continually change course, creating and removing vast wetlands and peatlands. Glacial melt, erosion, fires, permafrost dynamics, and wind-blown loess are among the shaping forces of the landscape. As a result, species interactions and ecosystem processes are shifting across time. The NWB is a data-poor region, and the intention of the NWB Landscape Conservation Cooperative is to determine what data are not available and what data are available. For instance, historical baseline data describing the economic and social relationships in association with the ecological condition of the NWB landscape are often lacking. Likewise, the size and remoteness of this region make it challenging to measure basic biological information, such as species population sizes or trends. The paucity of weather and climate monitoring stations also compound the ability to model future climate trends and impacts, which is part of the nature of working in the north. The purpose of this volume is to create a resource for regional land and resource managers and researchers by synthesizing the latest research on the historical and current status of landscape-scale drivers (including anthropogenic activities) and ecosystem processes, future projected changes of each, and the effects of changes on important resources. Generally, each chapter is coauthored by researchers and land and natural resource managers from the United States and Canada.

Northwest Boreal Region↗
USGS2020

Mangrove blue carbon in the face of deforestation, climate change, and restoration

Coastal wetlands have disproportionately high carbon densities, known as blue carbon, compared to most terrestrial ecosystems. Mangroves and their blue carbon stocks are at risk globally from land‐use and land‐cover change (LULCC) activities such as aquaculture, alongside biophysical disturbances such as sea‐level rise and cyclones. Global estimates of carbon emissions from mangrove loss have been previously unable to differentiate between the variable impacts of different drivers of loss. This article discusses the impacts that different LULCC activities and biophysical disturbances have on carbon stocks (biomass and soil) and greenhouse gas fluxes (CO 2 and CH 4 ). The dynamics of carbon stocks and fluxes depends on the type of LULCC; aquaculture often results in biomass and soil carbon removal, and some forms of agriculture can substantially increase methane emissions. Natural disturbances have mixed impacts on mangrove carbon; sea‐level rise will drown some mangroves and their carbon stocks but provide opportunities for new carbon accumulation, while cyclones can have immediate negative impacts on stocks but positive impacts on sequestration during recovery. Mangrove rehabilitation practices can actively restore carbon stocks and reduce greenhouse gas emissions from previous land uses. It is critical to consider the type of LULCC when estimating carbon emissions due to mangrove loss or rehabilitation. Mangrove blue carbon is now high on the international conservation policy agenda, and a better understanding of how carbon stocks and fluxes respond to anthropogenic and biophysical disturbance may provide better incentives for mangrove conservation and sustainable management.

Annual Plant Reviews↗
USGS2018

Evidence and opportunities for integrating landscape ecology into natural resource planning across multiple-use landscapes

Enhancing natural resource management has been a focus of landscape ecology since its inception, but numerous authors argue that landscape ecology has not yet been effective in achieving the underlying goal of planning and designing sustainable landscapes. We developed nine questions reflecting the application of fundamental research topics in landscape ecology to the landscape planning process and reviewed two recent landscape-scale plans in western North America for evidence of these concepts in plan decisions. Both plans considered multiple resources, uses, and values, including energy development, recreation, conservation, and protection of cultural and historic resources. We found that land use change and multiscale perspectives of resource uses and values were very often apparent in planning decisions. Pattern-process relationships, connectivity and fragmentation, ecosystem services, landscape history, and climate change were reflected less frequently. Landscape sustainability was considered only once in the 295 decisions reviewed, and outputs of landscape models were not referenced. We suggest six actionable opportunities for further integrating landscape ecology concepts into landscape planning efforts: 1) use landscape sustainability as an overarching goal, 2) adopt a broad ecosystem services framework, 3) explore the role of landscape history more comprehensively, 4) regularly consider and accommodate potential effects of climate change, 5) use landscape models to support plan decisions, and 6) promote a greater presence of landscape ecologists within agencies that manage large land bases and encourage active involvement in agency planning efforts. Together these actions may improve the defensibility, durability, and sustainability of landscape plan decisions.

Current Landscape Ecology Reports↗
USGS2019

Multi-element fingerprinting of waters to evaluate connectivity among depressional wetlands

Establishing the connectivity among depressional wetlands is important for their proper management, conservation and restoration. In this study, the concentrations of 38 elements in surface water and porewater of depressional wetlands were investigated to determine chemical and hydrological connectivity of three hydrological types: recharge, flow-through, and discharge, in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America. Most element concentrations of porewater varied significantly by wetland hydrologic type ( p < 0.05), and increased along a recharge to discharge hydrologic gradient. Significant spatial variation of element concentrations in surface water was observed in discharge wetlands. Generally, higher element concentrations occurred in natural wetlands compared to wetlands with known disturbances (previous drainage and grazing). Electrical conductivity explained 42.3% and 30.5% of the variation of all element concentrations in porewater and surface water. Non-metric multidimensional scaling analysis showed that the similarity decreased from recharge to flow-through to discharge wetland in each sampling site. Cluster analysis confirmed that element compositions in porewater of interconnected wetlands were more similar to each other than to those of wetlands located farther away. Porewater and surface water in a restored wetland showed similar multi-element characteristics to natural wetlands. In contrast, depressional wetlands connected by seeps along a deactivated drain-tile path and a grazed wetland showed distinctly different multi-element characteristics compared to other wetlands sampled. Our findings confirm that the multi-element fingerprinting method can be useful for assessing hydro-chemical connectivity across the landscape, and indicate that element concentrations are not only affected by land use, but also by hydrological characteristics.

North Dakota↗
USGS2022

The need to step-up monitoring of Asian bears

Many wildlife species are threatened in Asia, including the five species of terrestrial bears (Asiatic black, Ursus thibetanus ; brown, U. arctos ; sloth, Melursus ursinus ; sun, Helarctos malayanus ; giant panda, Ailuropoda melanoleuca ): many populations of these bears are thought to be declining or imperiled by small population size. Here our aim is to document how population assessments have been conducted for bears in Asia. We searched the literature and identified 102 studies published during 1999–2021 that investigated the status of an Asian bear population; these occurred in 24 of the 32 bear range countries in Asia. At the most basic level, 11% of studies verified presence of bears in places where they were not known to exist. The most common objective (53% of papers) was a distribution map, often derived from presence locations in a habitat-based model. Occupancy studies (15%) used temporal (time stamps on images from cameras) or spatial (transect segments) replicates, but tended to focus on “use”, so detector spacing was sometimes not appropriate for occupancy. Purported population indices, such as sign density or camera trap encounter rates, were reported in 16% of studies. One third of studies provided a population estimate, but only 10 studies in two decades used a rigorous method (e.g., mark–recapture). Sign surveys and interviews were the most common methods for determining bear presence, and local interviews were heavily relied upon for assessing population trend. Camera trapping has become increasingly prevalent, but only one study obtained a population estimate using photographs to distinguish natural individual markings. Only three studies used hair traps to obtain DNA-based population estimates, and three other studies obtained population estimates from DNA in scats. Just three studies quantitatively measured change in population size or occupancy over time, and none of these showed a decline. Unique rangewide sign surveys of giant pandas showed significant geographic expansion. The opinions of experts and local people, now heavily relied upon for population assessments, are not reliable or sensitive enough for monitoring. Quantitative population assessments are desirable to direct conservation actions toward the most perilous situations, and provide a means to gauge the effectiveness of conservation actions. This paper demonstrates the paucity of rigorous monitoring of Asian bears, and leads off a series of papers that propose improved methods for assessing distribution, occupancy, and density

Global Ecology and Conservation↗
USGS2012

Anthropogenic aerosols as a source of ancient dissolved organic matter in glaciers

Glacier-derived dissolved organic matter represents a quantitatively significant source of ancient, yet highly bioavailable carbon to downstream ecosystems. This finding runs counter to logical perceptions of age–reactivity relationships, in which the least reactive material withstands degradation the longest and is therefore the oldest. The remnants of ancient peatlands and forests overrun by glaciers have been invoked as the source of this organic matter. Here, we examine the radiocarbon age and chemical composition of dissolved organic matter in snow, glacier surface water, ice and glacier outflow samples from Alaska to determine the origin of the organic matter. Low levels of compounds derived from vascular plants indicate that the organic matter does not originate from forests or peatlands. Instead, we show that the organic matter on the surface of the glaciers is radiocarbon depleted, consistent with an anthropogenic aerosol source. Fluorescence spectrophotometry measurements reveal the presence of protein-like compounds of microbial or aerosol origin. In addition, ultrahigh-resolution mass spectrometry measurements document the presence of combustion products found in anthropogenic aerosols. Based on the presence of these compounds, we suggest that aerosols derived from fossil fuel burning are a source of pre-aged organic matter to glacier surfaces. Furthermore, we show that the molecular signature of the organic matter is conserved in snow, glacier water and outflow, suggesting that the anthropogenic carbon is exported relatively unchanged in glacier outflows.

Nature Geoscience↗
USGS2018

Effects of land use on summer thermal regimes in critical salmonid habitats of the Pacific Northwest

The effect of climate change on stream temperature regimes is of significant concern to natural resource managers focused on protecting cold-water-dependent species. Nevertheless, understanding of how human land-use activities may act to exacerbate the effects of climate change on stream temperature regimes is limited. Using extensive stream temperature data with high-resolution climate and habitat data, we quantified how land management activities are related to summer stream temperatures across the Pacific Northwest, USA. We then described the distribution of land management practices influencing summer thermal regimes relative to the distribution of salmonid fish species of conservation concern. After accounting for climatic and geophysical variation, we detected a strong relationship between livestock grazing and summer thermal regimes. Maximum, average, and diel variation in water temperature was greater where livestock grazing was present. Livestock grazing was widespread, occurring in 43%–100% of sites supporting salmonid species of conservation concern. Thus, current land management practices may be intensifying the effects of ongoing climate change in freshwater habitats, acting to further threaten cold-water fishes of conservation concern.

Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana↗
USGS2017

Evaluating land-use change scenarios for the Puget Sound Basin, Washington, within the ecosystem recovery target model-based framework

The Puget Sound Basin, Washington, has experienced rapid urban growth in recent decades, with varying impacts to local ecosystems and natural resources. To plan for future growth, land managers often use scenarios to assess how the pattern and volume of growth may affect natural resources. Using three different land-management scenarios for the years 2000–2060, we assessed various spatial patterns of urban growth relative to maps depicting a model-based characterization of the ecological integrity and recent development pressure of individual land parcels. The three scenarios depict future trajectories of land-use change under alternative management strategies—status quo, managed growth, and unconstrained growth. The resulting analysis offers a preliminary assessment of how future growth patterns in the Puget Sound Basin may impact land targeted for conservation and how short-term metrics of land-development pressure compare to longer term growth projections.

Washington↗
USGS2002

Global petroleum resources: A view to the future

It is necessary to periodically reassess petroleum resources, not only because new data become available and better geologic models are developed; but also because many non-geologic factors determine which part of the crustal abundance of petroleum will be economic and acceptable over the foreseeable future. In 2000, the U.S. Geological Survey completed an assessment of the world's conventional petroleum resources, exclusive of the United States. This assessment is different from those before it: Overall the 2000 assessment of potential petroleum resources is higher than previous assessments, largely because it is the first USGS world assessment to include field growth estimates. Based on a thorough investigation of the petroleum geology of each province, the assessment couples geologic analysis with a probabilistic methodology to estimate remaining potential. Including the assessment numbers for the United States from USGS and the Minerals Management Service (MMS), the world's endowment of recoverable oil - which consists of cumulative production, remaining reserves, reserve growth and undiscovered resources - is estimated at about 3 trillion barrels of oil. Of this, about 24 percent has been produced and an additional 29 percent has been discovered and booked as reserves. The natural gas endowment is estimated at 15.4 quadrillion cubic feet (2.5 trillion barrels of oil equivalent), of which only about 11 percent has been produced and an additional 31 percent has been discovered and booked as reserves. The USGS assessment is not exhaustive, because it does not cover all sedimentary basins of the world. Relatively small volumes of oil or gas have been found in an additional 279 provinces, and significant accumulations may occur in these or other basins that were not assessed. The estimates are therefore conservative.

Geotimes↗
USGS2017

Smartphone technologies and Bayesian networks to assess shorebird habitat selection

Understanding patterns of habitat selection across a species’ geographic distribution can be critical for adequately managing populations and planning for habitat loss and related threats. However, studies of habitat selection can be time consuming and expensive over broad spatial scales, and a lack of standardized monitoring targets or methods can impede the generalization of site-based studies. Our objective was to collaborate with natural resource managers to define available nesting habitat for piping plovers ( Charadrius melodus ) throughout their U.S. Atlantic coast distribution from Maine to North Carolina, with a goal of providing science that could inform habitat management in response to sea-level rise. We characterized a data collection and analysis approach as being effective if it provided low-cost collection of standardized habitat-selection data across the species’ breeding range within 1–2 nesting seasons and accurate nesting location predictions. In the method developed, >30 managers and conservation practitioners from government agencies and private organizations used a smartphone application, “iPlover,” to collect data on landcover characteristics at piping plover nest locations and random points on 83 beaches and barrier islands in 2014 and 2015. We analyzed these data with a Bayesian network that predicted the probability a specific combination of landcover variables would be associated with a nesting site. Although we focused on a shorebird, our approach can be modified for other taxa. Results showed that the Bayesian network performed well in predicting habitat availability and confirmed predicted habitat preferences across the Atlantic coast breeding range of the piping plover. We used the Bayesian network to map areas with a high probability of containing nesting habitat on the Rockaway Peninsula in New York, USA, as an example application. Our approach facilitated the collation of evidence-based information on habitat selection from many locations and sources, which can be used in management and decision-making applications.

U.S Atlantic Coast↗
USGS2016

Ecological resistance in urban streams: the role of natural and legacy attributes

Urbanization substantially changes the physicochemical and biological characteristics of streams. The trajectory of negative effect is broadly similar around the world, but the nature and magnitude of ecological responses to urban growth differ among locations. Some heterogeneity in response arises from differences in the level of urban development and attributes of urban water management. However, the heterogeneity also may arise from variation in hydrologic, biological, and physicochemical templates that shaped stream ecosystems before urban development. We present a framework to develop hypotheses that predict how natural watershed and channel attributes in the pre-urban-development state may confer ecological resistance to urbanization. We present 6 testable hypotheses that explore the expression of such attributes under our framework: 1) greater water storage capacity mitigates hydrologic regime shifts, 2) coarse substrates and a balance between erosive forces and sediment supply buffer morphological changes, 3) naturally high ionic concentrations and pH pre-adapt biota to water-quality stress, 4) metapopulation connectivity results in retention of species richness, 5) high functional redundancy buffers trophic function from species loss, and 6) landuse history mutes or reverses the expected trajectory of eutrophication. Data from past comparative analyses support these hypotheses, but rigorous testing will require targeted investigations that account for confounding or interacting factors, such as diversity in urban infrastructure attributes. Improved understanding of the susceptibility or resistance of stream ecosystems could substantially strengthen conservation, management, and monitoring efforts in urban streams. We hope that these preliminary, conceptual hypotheses will encourage others to explore these ideas further and generate additional explanations for the heterogeneity observed in urban streams.

Freshwater Science↗
USGS1983

Evaluation of water-quality characteristics of part of the Spokane Aquifer, Washington and Idaho, using a solute-transport digital model

The principal dissolved constituents in water in the Spokane aquifer are calcium and bicarbonate. These constituents (as well as dissolved solids, hardness, and magnesium) each correlate well with specific conductance, whereas chloride, sodium, and nitrate each do not. Specific conductance ranges from 73 to 820 micromhos per centimeter throughout the study area. Short-term variations in water quality in the Spokane aquifer are generally greater than long-term variations. Vertical variations in concentration of chemical constituents occurred in four of 15 wells used to sample the upper 50 feet of the aquifer along several cross sections. Changes in water quality from one cross section to another could not be directly related to land-use activities. A digital model was developed and used to simulate solute transport of conservative ions in the Spokane aquifer. Specifically, the model was used to estimate the impact of the chloride ion from recharge through septic tanks and from irrigation on the water quality of the aquifer. Analysis shows that the estimated impact on the aquifer from these two source loadings was less than a 1-milligram-per-liter increase throughout approximately 80 percent of the aquifer, but increases averaging about 3 milligrams per liter occurred in some peripheral areas. Various water-quality-management schemes based on manmade or natural stresses can be tested with the model.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2015

Spatial and temporal variation in marine birds in the north Gulf of Alaska: The value of marine bird monitoring within Gulf Watch Alaska

Birds offer useful insights into marine ecosystems. Marine birds are responsive to spatial and temporal variation in the environment, that often originates with fluctuations in oceanographic and climatic drivers and permeates up through food webs to conspicuous top predators such as seabirds (Coyle and Pinchuk 2005, Speckman et al. 2005, Gonzales-Solis et al. 2009, Cushing et al., this report). In that way, marine birds are excellent assimilators, samplers, and indicators of the status of marine environments (Montevecchi 1993, Piatt et al. 2007b, Zador et al. 2013). Marine bird responses to dynamic marine ecosystems can be detected in a variety of metrics, including abundance, distribution, and productivity. For example, in the northern Gulf of Alaska (GOA), decadal-scale variation in oceanographic conditions has been associated with dramatic shifts in prey composition and abundance (Anderson and Piatt 1999). In turn, these shifts were more closely correlated with changes in abundance of fish-eating birds of Prince William Sound (PWS), such as pigeon guillemots (Golet et al. 2002) and marbled and Kittlitz’s murrelets (Kuletz et al. 2011a, 2011b), than in the abundance of species that primarily consume plankton or benthic prey (Agler et al. 1999, Cushing et al., this report). Birds also are responsive to anthropogenic influences in marine environments, including commercial fishing, contamination, introduction of non-native species, coastal development, offshore resource extraction, and vessel traffic. A major anthropogenic perturbation in the northern GOA was the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill, in which marine birds suffered high immediate mortality (Piatt and Ford 1996). Additionally, several species showed long-term evidence of declines in the oiled areas of PWS (Lance et al. 2001), as well as impacts to reproductive success years later (Golet et al. 2002). However, the degree of direct impact and vulnerability to chronic injury, which was related to exposure to lingering oil, varied widely among species (see Esler et al., this report). Research and monitoring directed at documenting the timelines and mechanisms of wildlife recovery following the Exxon Valdez oil spill led to an unprecedented understanding of oil spill effects on marine birds, as well as previously unknown information about marine bird ecology in the northern GOA. Quantifying effects of anthropogenic influences requires an understanding of variation in marine bird abundance, distribution, and productivity, in relation to naturally occurring dynamics in marine environments continued marine bird work as part of Gulf Watch Alaska will facilitate this. In addition to their value as indicators of marine conditions and anthropogenic influences, marine birds are protected under the Migratory Bird Treaty Act and are managed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS). Marine birds have high societal value from a wide variety of interests (e.g., tourism, bird watching, hunting, mythology), and are an important source of subsistence foods in Alaska (Naves and Braem 2014). Because of the conservation interest in marine birds, as well as their value for indicating the status of marine ecosystems, monitoring of marine birds is an important component of many ocean monitoring programs, including Gulf Watch Alaska.

Alaska↗
USGS2011

Spread of plague among black-tailed prairie dogs is associated with colony spatial characteristics

Sylvatic plague ( Yersinia pestis ) is an exotic pathogen that is highly virulent in black‐tailed prairie dogs ( Cynomys ludovicianus ) and causes widespread colony losses and individual mortality rates >95%. We investigated colony spatial characteristics that may influence inter‐colony transmission of plague at 3 prairie dog colony complexes in the Great Plains. The 4 spatial characteristics we considered include: colony size, Euclidean distance to nearest neighboring colony, colony proximity index, and distance to nearest drainage (dispersal) corridor. We used multi‐state mark–recapture models to determine the relationship between these colony characteristics and probability of plague transmission among prairie dog colonies. Annual mapping of colonies and mark–recapture analyses of disease dynamics in natural colonies led to 4 main results: 1) plague outbreaks exhibited high spatial and temporal variation, 2) the site of initiation of epizootic plague may have substantially influenced the subsequent inter‐colony spread of plague, 3) the long‐term effect of plague on individual colonies differed among sites because of how individuals and colonies were distributed, and 4) colony spatial characteristics were related to the probability of infection at all sites although the relative importance and direction of relationships varied among sites. Our findings suggest that conventional prairie dog conservation management strategies, including promoting large, highly connected colonies, may need to be altered in the presence of plague.

Colorado, Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, New Mexico↗
USGS2010

Hierarchical spatial models for predicting pygmy rabbit distribution and relative abundance

Conservationists routinely use species distribution models to plan conservation, restoration and development actions, while ecologists use them to infer process from pattern. These models tend to work well for common or easily observable species, but are of limited utility for rare and cryptic species. This may be because honest accounting of known observation bias and spatial autocorrelation are rarely included, thereby limiting statistical inference of resulting distribution maps. We specified and implemented a spatially explicit Bayesian hierarchical model for a cryptic mammal species (pygmy rabbit Brachylagus idahoensis). Our approach used two levels of indirect sign that are naturally hierarchical (burrows and faecal pellets) to build a model that allows for inference on regression coefficients as well as spatially explicit model parameters. We also produced maps of rabbit distribution (occupied burrows) and relative abundance (number of burrows expected to be occupied by pygmy rabbits). The model demonstrated statistically rigorous spatial prediction by including spatial autocorrelation and measurement uncertainty. We demonstrated flexibility of our modelling framework by depicting probabilistic distribution predictions using different assumptions of pygmy rabbit habitat requirements. Spatial representations of the variance of posterior predictive distributions were obtained to evaluate heterogeneity in model fit across the spatial domain. Leave-one-out cross-validation was conducted to evaluate the overall model fit. Synthesis and applications. Our method draws on the strengths of previous work, thereby bridging and extending two active areas of ecological research: species distribution models and multi-state occupancy modelling. Our framework can be extended to encompass both larger extents and other species for which direct estimation of abundance is difficult. ?? 2010 The Authors. Journal compilation ?? 2010 British Ecological Society.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗