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USGS2014

Proceedings of the U.S. Geological Survey Eighth Biennial Geographic Information Science Workshop and first The National Map Users Conference, Denver, Colorado, May 10-13, 2011

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is sponsoring the first The National Map Users Conference in conjunction with the eighth biennial Geographic Information Science (GIS) Workshop on May 10-13, 2011, in Lakewood, Colorado. The GIS Workshop will be held at the USGS National Training Center, located on the Denver Federal Center, Lakewood, Colorado, May 10-11. The National Map Users Conference will be held directly after the GIS Workshop at the Denver Marriott West, a convention hotel in the Lakewood, Colorado area, May 12-13. The National Map is designed to serve the Nation by providing geographic data and knowledge for government, industry, and public uses. The goal of The National Map Users Conference is to enhance communications and collaboration among the communities of users of and contributors to The National Map, including USGS, Department of the Interior, and other government GIS specialists and scientists, as well as the broader geospatial community. The USGS National Geospatial Program intends the conference to serve as a forum to engage users and more fully discover and meet their needs for the products and services of The National Map. The goal of the GIS Workshop is to promote advancement of GIS and related technologies and concepts as well as the sharing of GIS knowledge within the USGS GIS community. This collaborative opportunity for multi-disciplinary GIS and associated professionals will allow attendees to present and discuss a wide variety of geospatial-related topics. The Users Conference and Workshop collaboration will bring together scientists, managers, and data users who, through presentations, posters, seminars, workshops, and informal gatherings, will share accomplishments and progress on a variety of geospatial topics. During this joint event, attendees will have the opportunity to present or demonstrate their work; to develop their knowledge by attending hands-on workshops, seminars, and presentations given by professionals from USGS and other Federal Agencies, GIS related companies, and academia; and to network with other professionals to develop collaborative opportunities. Specific conference topics include scientific and modeling applications using The National Map, opportunities for partnerships, and advances in geospatial technologies. The first part of the week will be the GIS Workshop, offered as a pre-conference seminar. It will focus on hands-on GIS training and seminars concerning current topics of geospatial interest. The focus of the USGS GIS Workshop is to showcase specific techniques and concepts for using GIS in support of science. The presentations will be educational and not a marketing endeavor. To promote awareness of and interaction with selected USGS corporate and local science center data products, as well as promoting collaboration, a “GIS Olympics” event will be held Tuesday evening during the GIS Workshop. The second part of the week will feature interactive briefings and discussions on issues and opportunities of The National Map. The focus of the Users Conference will be on the role of The National Map in supporting science initiatives, emergency response, land and wildlife management, and other activities. All presentations at the Users Conference include use or innovations related to a The National Map data theme or application. On Wednesday evening, a poster session is being held as a combined event for all attendees and as a juncture between the events. On Thursday evening, the Henry Gannett Award will be presented. Additionally, poster awards will be presented. Several prominent speakers are featured at plenary sessions at The National Map Users Conference, including Deanna A. Archuleta, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Water and Science, Department of the Interior; Dr. Barbara P. Buttenfield, Professor of Geography at the University of Colorado in Boulder; best-selling author Frederick Reuss; and Dr. Joel Scheraga, Senior Advisor for Climate Adaptation, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Additionally, panel discussions have attracted participation from notable experts from government, academia, and the private sector. This Proceedings volume will serve as an activity reference for workshop attendees, as well as an archive of technical abstracts presented at the workshop. Author, co-author, and presenter names, affiliations, and contact information are listed with presentation titles with the abstracts. Some hands-on sessions are offered twice; in these instances, abstracts submitted for publication are presented in the proceedings on both days on which they are offered.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2012

The systematic geologic mapping program and a quadrangle-by-quadrangle analysis of time-stratigraphic relations within oil shale-bearing rocks of the Piceance Basin, western Colorado

During the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s, the U.S. Geological Survey mapped the entire area underlain by oil shale of the Eocene Green River Formation in the Piceance Basin of western Colorado. The Piceance Basin contains the largest known oil shale deposit in the world, with an estimated 1.53 trillion barrels of oil in place and as much as 400,000 barrels of oil per acre. This report places the sixty-nine 7½-minute geologic quadrangle maps and one 15-minute quadrangle map published during this period into a comprehensive time-stratigraphic framework based on the alternating rich and lean oil shale zones. The quadrangles are placed in their respective regional positions on one large stratigraphic chart so that tracking the various stratigraphic unit names that have been applied can be followed between adjacent quadrangles. Members of the Green River Formation were defined prior to the detailed mapping, and many inconsistencies and correlation problems had to be addressed as mapping progressed. As a result, some of the geologic units that were defined prior to mapping were modified or discarded. The extensive body of geologic data provided by the detailed quadrangle maps contributes to a better understanding of the distribution and characteristics of the oil shale-bearing rocks across the Piceance Basin.

Colorado↗

USGS2012

Water-level altitudes and continuous and discrete water quality at and near an aquifer storage and recovery site, Bexar, Atascosa, and Wilson Counties, Texas, June 2004-September 2011

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the San Antonio Water System (SAWS), collected data during 2004–11 to characterize the quality of native groundwater from the San Antonio segment of the Edwards aquifer (hereinafter, Edwards aquifer) and preinjection and postinjection water from the Carrizo aquifer (informal name commonly applied to the upper part of the Carrizo-Wilcox aquifer in the area) at and near an aquifer storage and recovery (ASR) site in Bexar, Atascosa, and Wilson Counties, Texas. Daily mean water-level altitude, water temperature, and specific conductance were measured continuously in a monitoring well on the ASR site to determine how injection and withdrawal at the ASR site might affect local groundwater. Groundwater samples were collected and analyzed for selected physical properties and constituents to characterize the quality of native groundwater from the Edwards aquifer and preinjection and postinjection water from the Carrizo aquifer near the ASR site to provide a better understanding of possible changes in the quality of groundwater near an active ASR site that might result from the mixing of water from different aquifers. During injection periods, the water-level altitude in the monitoring well generally increased as the amount of water being injected into all wells at the ASR site increased and decreased as the amount of water being injected into all wells at the ASR site decreased. During withdrawal periods, the water-level altitude in the monitoring well generally increased as the total volume of water being withdrawn from all wells at the ASR site decreased and generally decreased as the total volume of water being withdrawn from all wells increased. Daily mean water temperature fluctuated by less than 1 degree Celsius and was determined to be independent of injection or withdrawal conditions at the ASR site. Changes in daily mean specific-conductance values measured at four depths in the monitoring well at the ASR site occurred without regard to total ASR site injection or withdrawal volumes. No substantial differences were measured over time in major-ion, trace-element, or isotope chemistry of water samples collected from the wells that supplied water from the Edwards aquifer. Little variation in water chemistry was detected in the samples collected from four wells designed to inject and withdraw water at the ASR site, regardless of whether the ASR site was injecting or withdrawing water. The similarity of major-ion and isotope chemistry between the Edwards aquifer source wells and the four ASR wells indicates that little, if any, migration of injected water away from the ASR wells has occurred. In a well located closest to the ASR site in the direction of regional flow for the Carrizo aquifer, a greater alkalinity value and a smaller concentration of chloride were measured in the most recent sample than in all other samples collected at this well. Substantial increases in dissolved iron and manganese concentrations also were observed in this well. The increased alkalinity value and dissolved iron and manganese concentrations and the decreased chloride concentration in the well could indicate that the injected water from the Edwards aquifer had begun to move into at least a part of the strata supplying these wells and might be causing iron and manganese mobilization in the Carrizo aquifer.

Texas↗

USGS2013

Simulated effects of Lower Floridan aquifer pumping on the Upper Floridan aquifer at Pooler, Chatham County, Georgia

A revised regional groundwater-flow model was used to assess the potential effects on the Upper Floridan aquifer (UFA) of pumping the Lower Floridan aquifer (LFA) from a new well (35Q069) located at the City of Pooler in coastal Georgia near Savannah. The spatial resolution of the original regional, steady-state, groundwater-flow model was increased to incorporate detailed hydrogeologic information resulting from field investigations at Pooler and existing wells in the area. Simulation results using the U.S. Geological Survey finite-difference code MODFLOW indicated that long-term pumping at a rate of 780 gallons per minute (gal/min) from the LFA well 35Q069 would cause a maximum drawdown of about 2.52 feet (ft) in the UFA (scenario A). This maximum drawdown in the UFA was greater than the observed draw-down of 0.9 ft in the 72-hour aquifer test, but this is expected because the steady-state simulated drawdown represents long-term pumping conditions. Model results for scenario A indicate that drawdown in the UFA exceeded 1 ft over a 163-square-mile (mi 2 ) area. Induced vertical leakage from the UFA provided about 98 percent of the water to the LFA; the area within 1 mile of the pumped well contributed about 81 percent of the water pumped. Simulated pumping changed regional water-budget components slightly and redistributed flow among model layers, namely increasing downward leakage in all layers, decreasing upward leakage in all layers above the LFA, increasing inflow to and decreasing outflow from lateral specified-head boundaries in the UA and LFA, and increasing the volume of induced recharge from the general head boundary to outcrop units. An additional two groundwater-pumping scenarios were run to establish that a linear relation exists between pumping rates of the LFA well 35Q069 (varied from 390 to 1,042 gal/min) and amount of drawdown in the UFA and LFA. Three groundwater-pumping scenarios were run to evaluate the amount of UFA pumping (128 to 340 gal/min) that would produce maximum drawdown in the UFA equivalent to that induced by pumping the LFA well 35Q069 at rates specified in scenarios A, B, and C (390 to 1,042 gal/min). Scenarios in which the LFA well 35Q069 was pumped produced a larger drawdown area in the UFA than scenarios in which the UFA well was pumped to offset the maximum UFA drawdown simulated by scenarios A, B, and C. Three additional groundwater-pumping scenarios were run to evaluate the combination of pumping reductions at existing Pooler UFA public-supply wells with the addition of pumping from the new LFA well. For each scenario, LFA well 35Q069 was pumped at different rates, and pumping at existing Pooler supply wells, located about 3.7 miles northward, was reduced according to UFA drawdown offsets (128 to 340 gal/min) established by scenarios D, E, and F. Decreases in the magnitude and areal extent of drawdown in the UFA in response to pumping the LFA well were realized for scenarios that simulated drawdown offsets (reductions) for the existing UFA wells at Pooler when compared with the magnitude and extent of drawdown resulting from scenarios that did not simulate drawdown offsets for the existing UFA wells at Pooler (scenarios A, B, and C). The revised model was evaluated for sensitivity by altering horizontal and vertical hydraulic conductivity in layers 5 through 7 (Floridan aquifer system) for newly established hydraulic-property zones by factors of 0.1, 0.5, 2.0, and 10.0. Results of the sensitivity analysis indicate that horizontal and vertical hydraulic conductivity of the UFA and LFA are the most important parameters in model simulations. The least sensitive parameters were the horizontal and vertical hydraulic conductivity of the Lower Floridan confining unit; changes to these parameters had little effect on simulated leakage and groundwater levels. The revised model reasonably depicts changes in groundwater levels resulting from pumping the LFA at Pooler at a rate of 780 gal/min. However, results are limited by the same model assumptions and design as the original model and placement of boundaries and type of boundary used exert the greatest control on overall groundwater flow and interaquifer leakage in the system. Simulation results have improved regional characterization of the Floridan aquifer system, which could be used by State officials in evaluating requests for groundwater withdrawal from the LFA.

Georgia↗

USGS2013

Emergent sandbar dynamics in the lower Platte River in eastern Nebraska: methods and results of pilot study, 2011

The lower Platte River corridor provides important habitats for two State- and federally listed bird species: the interior least tern (terns; Sternula antillarum athallassos) and the piping plover (plovers; Charadrius melodus). However, many of the natural morphological and hydrological characteristics of the Platte River have been altered substantially by water development, channelization, hydropower operations, and invasive vegetation encroachment, which have decreased the abundance of high-quality nesting and foraging habitat for terns and plovers. The lower Platte River (LPR), defined as 103 miles (mi) of the Platte River between its confluence with the Loup River and its confluence with the Missouri River, has narrowed since the late-19th and early-20th centuries, yet it partially retains many geomorphologic and hydrologic characteristics important to terns and plovers. These birds nest on the sandbars in the river and along shorelines at sand- and gravel-pit lakes in the adjacent valley. The need to balance continued economic, infrastructure, and resource development with the conservation of important physical and aquatic habitat resources requires increased understanding of the physical and biological dynamics of the lower Platte River. Spatially and temporally rich datasets for emergent sandbar habitats are necessary to quantify emergent sandbar dynamics relative to hypothesized controls and stressors. In cooperation with the Lower Platte South Natural Resources District, the U.S. Geological Survey initiated a pilot study of emergent sandbar dynamics along a 22-mi segment of the LPR downstream from its confluence with Salt Creek, near Ashland, Nebraska. The purposes of the study were to: (1) develop methods to rapidly assess sandbar geometries and locations in a wide, sand-bed river, and (2) apply and validate the method to assess emergent sandbar dynamics over three seasons in 2011. An examination of the height of sandbars relative to the local stage of the formative discharge event, and how subsequent river discharges, of both high and low magnitude, alter sandbar geometries and abundance within the LPR was of particular interest. A “rapid-assessment” method was developed with the goal of characterizing the spatial distribution and habitat-relevant geometries of the complete population of sandbars along the study segment. Three primary measures were used to assess emergent sandbar dynamics in the study segment: sandbar area, sandbar height, and sandbar location. Data to derive these measures were collected during three, week-long survey periods in 2011, herein named “spring survey period,” “summer survey period,” and “fall survey period.” Emergent sandbars were grouped into one of three generalized types: (1) bank-attached, (2) island-attached, and (3) mid-channel.

Nebraska↗

USGS2014

U.S. Geological Survey Karst Interest Group Proceedings, Carlsbad, New Mexico, April 29-May 2, 2014

Karst aquifer systems are present throughout parts of the United States and some of its territories, and have developed in carbonate rocks (primarily limestone and dolomite) that span an interval of time encompassing more than 550 million years. The depositional environments, diagenetic processes, post-depositional tectonic events, and geochemical weathering processes that form karst aquifers are varied and complex, and involve biological, chemical, and physical changes. These factors, combined with the diverse climatic regimes under which karst development in these rocks has taken place, result in the unique dual- or triple-porosity nature of karst aquifers. These complex hydrogeologic systems typically represent challenging and unique conditions to scientists attempting to study groundwater flow and contaminant transport in these terrains. The dissolution of carbonate rocks and the subsequent development of distinct and beautiful landscapes, caverns, and springs has resulted in the most exceptional karst areas of the United States being designated as national or state parks; commercial caverns and known privately owned caves number in the tens of thousands. Both public and private properties provide access for scientists to study the flow of groundwater in situ. Likewise, the range and complexity of landforms and groundwater flow systems associated with karst terrains are enormous, perhaps more than for any other aquifer type. Karst aquifers and landscapes that form in tropical areas, such as the cockpit karst along the north coast of Puerto Rico, differ greatly from karst landforms in more arid climates, such as the Edwards Plateau in west-central Texas or the Guadalupe Mountains near Carlsbad, New Mexico, where hypogenic processes have played a major role in speleogenesis. Many of these public and private lands also contain unique flora and fauna associated with these karst hydrogeologic systems. As a result, numerous federal, state, and local agencies have a strong interest in the study of karst terrains. Many of the major springs and aquifers in the United States have developed in carbonate rocks, such as the Floridan aquifer system in Florida and parts of Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina; the Ozark Plateaus aquifer system in parts of Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, and Oklahoma; and the Edwards-Trinity aquifer system in west-central Texas. These aquifers, and the springs that discharge from them, serve as major water-supply sources and as unique ecological habitats. Competition for the water resources of karst aquifers is common, and urban development and the lack of attenuation of contaminants in karst areas can impact the ecosystem and water quality of these aquifers. The concept for developing a platform for interaction among scientists within the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) working on karst-related studies evolved from the November 1999 National Ground-Water Meeting of the USGS. As a result, the Karst Interest Group (KIG) was formed in 2000. The KIG is a loose-knit, grass-roots organization of USGS and non-USGS scientists and researchers devoted to fostering better communication among scientists working on, or interested in, karst science. The primary mission of the KIG is to encourage and support interdisciplinary collaboration and technology transfer among scientists working in karst areas. Additionally, the KIG encourages collaborative studies between the different mission areas of the USGS as well as other federal and state agencies, and with researchers from academia and institutes. The KIG also encourages younger scientists by participation of students in the poster and oral sessions. To accomplish its mission, the KIG has organized a series of workshops that are held near nationally important karst areas. To date (2014) six KIG workshops, including the workshop documented in this report, have been held. The workshops typically include oral and poster sessions on selected karst-related topics and research, as well as field trips to local karst features. Proceedings of the workshops are published by the USGS and are available online at http://water.usgs.gov/ogw/karst/kig . The first KIG workshop was held in St. Petersburg, Florida, February 13–16, 2001, in the vicinity of the large springs and other karst features of the Floridan aquifer system. The second KIG workshop was held August 20–22, 2002, in Shepherdstown, West Virginia, in proximity to the carbonate aquifers of the northern Shenandoah Valley and highlighted an invited presentation on karst literature by the late Barry F. Beck of P.E. LaMoreaux and Associates. The third KIG workshop was held September 12–15, 2005, in Rapid City, South Dakota, nearby to karst features in evaporites and limestones of the Madison Group in the Black Hills of South Dakota, including Wind Cave National Park and Jewel Cave National Monument. The workshop also included a featured presentation by Thomas Casadevall, Central Region Director, USGS, on the status of earth science at the USGS and evening trips to Jewel Cave led by Mike Wiles, National Park Service (NPS) and Wind Cave led by Rod Horrocks, NPS. The fourth KIG workshop was held May 27–29, 2008, and hosted by the Hoffman Environmental Research Institute and Center for Cave and Karst Studies at Western Kentucky University in Bowling Green, Kentucky, near Mammoth Cave National Park and karst features of the Chester Upland and Pennyroyal Plateau. The workshop featured a late-night field trip into Mammoth Cave with Rickard Toomey and Rick Olsen, NPS. The fifth workshop was held April 26–29, 2011, and was a joint meeting of the USGS KIG and University of Arkansas HydroDays, hosted by the Department of Geosciences at the University of Arkansas in Fayetteville. The workshop featured an outstanding field trip to the unique karst terrain along the Buffalo National River of the southern Ozarks and a keynote presentation on paleokarst in the United States by Art and Peggy Palmer. This sixth and current 2014 KIG workshop is hosted by the National Cave and Karst Research Institute (NCKRI) in Carlsbad, New Mexico, with Director of NCKRI, George Veni, serving as co-chair of the workshop with Eve Kuniansky, USGS. The session planning committee for this sixth workshop includes Van Brahana, USGS retired and University of Arkansas Professor Emeritus; Tom Byl, USGS and Tennessee State University; Zelda Bailey, former Director of NCKRI and retired Director, National Institute of Standards and Technology, Boulder Laboratory, Colorado; Patrick Tucci, USGS retired; and Mike Bradley, Allan Clark, Geoff Delin, Daniel Doctor, James Kaufmann, Eve Kuniansky, Randy Orndorff, Larry Spangler, and Dave Weary of the USGS. The karst hydrology field trip on Thursday will be led by Lewis Land (NCKRI karst hydrologist) and the optional Friday field trip on the geology of Carlsbad Caverns National Park will be led by George Veni. The keynote speaker is Dr. Penelope Boston, Director of Cave and Karst Studies at New Mexico Tech, Socorro, and Academic Director at NCKRI, who will address the future of karst research. Additionally, there is a featured presentation “Irish karst and its management,” by Caoimhe Hickey, The Geological Survey of Ireland, preceding a panel discussion on “Collaboration During Times of Limited Resources.” The extended abstracts of USGS authors were peer reviewed and approved for publication by the U.S. Geological Survey. Articles submitted by university researchers and other federal and state agencies did not go through the formal USGS peer review and approval process, and therefore may not adhere to our editorial standards or stratigraphic nomenclature and is not research conducted or data collected by the USGS. However, all articles had at a minimum of two peer reviews, and all articles were edited for consistency of appearance in the published Proceedings. The use of trade, firm or product names in any article is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. The USGS, Office of Groundwater, provides technical support for the Karst Interest Group website and public availability of the Proceedings from these workshops, and the USGS Groundwater Resources Program funds the publication costs. Finally, the cover illustration is the work of Ann Tihansky, USGS, used since the first KIG workshop in 2000.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2015

Trends in hydraulic fracturing distributions and treatment fluids, additives, proppants, and water volumes applied to wells drilled in the United States from 1947 through 2010: data analysis and comparison to the literature

Hydraulic fracturing is presently the primary stimulation technique for oil and gas production in low-permeability, unconventional reservoirs. Comprehensive, published, and publicly available information regarding the extent, location, and character of hydraulic fracturing in the United States is scarce. This national spatial and temporal analysis of data on nearly 1 million hydraulically fractured wells and 1.8 million fracturing treatment records from 1947 through 2010 (aggregated in Data Series 868) is used to identify hydraulic fracturing trends in drilling methods and use of proppants, treatment fluids, additives, and water in the United States. These trends are compared to the literature in an effort to establish a common understanding of the differences in drilling methods, treatment fluids, and chemical additives and of how the newer technology has affected the water use volumes and areal distribution of hydraulic fracturing. Historically, Texas has had the highest number of records of hydraulic fracturing treatments and associated wells in the United States documented in the datasets described herein. Water-intensive horizontal/directional drilling has also increased from 6 percent of new hydraulically fractured wells drilled in the United States in 2000 to 42 percent of new wells drilled in 2010. Increases in horizontal drilling also coincided with the emergence of water-based “slick water” fracturing fluids. As such, the most current hydraulic fracturing materials and methods are notably different from those used in previous decades and have contributed to the development of previously inaccessible unconventional oil and gas production target areas, namely in shale and tight-sand reservoirs. Publicly available derivative datasets and locations developed from these analyses are described.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2014

Significance of a near-source tephra-stratigraphic sequence to the eruptive history of Hayes Volcano, south-central Alaska

Bluffs along the Hayes River valley, 31 km northeast and 40 km downstream from Hayes Volcano, reveal volcanic deposits that shed new light on its eruptive history. Three thick (>10 cm) and five thin (<10 cm) tephra-fall deposits are dacitic in whole rock composition and contain high proportions of amphibole to pyroxene and minor biotite and broadly correlate to Hayes tephra set H defined by earlier investigators. Two basal ages for the tephra-fall sequence of 3,690±30 and 3,750±30 14 C yr B.P. are also consistent with the Hayes tephra set H timeframe. Distinguishing among Hayes tephra set H units is critical because the set is an important time-stratigraphic marker in south-central Alaska and this section provides a new reference section for Hayes tephra set H. Analysis of Fe-Ti oxide grains in the tephras shows promise for identifying individual Hayes deposits. Beneath the dacitic tephra sequence lies an older, poorly sorted tephra (tephra A) that contains dacite and rhyolite lapilli and whose basal age is 4,450±30 14 C yr B.P. Immediately below the tephra-fall sequence (Unit III) lies a series of mass-flow deposits that are rich in rhyodacitic clasts (Unit II). Below Unit II and possibly coeval with it, is a 20–30 m thick pumiceous pyroclastic-flow deposit (Unit I) that extends to the valley floor. Here informally named the Hayes River ignimbrite, this deposit contains pumice clasts of rhyolite with quartz, sanidine, plagioclase, and biotite phenocrysts, an assemblage that is unique among known Quaternary volcanic products of Hayes and other Alaskan volcanoes. Units I, II, and tephra A of Unit III represent at least two previously unrecognized eruptions of Hayes Volcano that occurred prior to ~3,700 yr B.P. No compositionally equivalent distal tephra deposits correlative with Hayes Volcano rhyodacites or rhyolites have yet been identified, perhaps indicating that some of these deposits are pre-Holocene, and were largely removed by glacial ice during the last ice age. More field and analytical work is needed to further refine the eruptive history of Hayes Volcano.

Alaska↗

USGS2014

Provisional maps of thermal areas in Yellowstone National Park, based on satellite thermal infrared imaging and field observations

Maps that define the current distribution of geothermally heated ground are useful toward setting a baseline for thermal activity to better detect and understand future anomalous hydrothermal and (or) volcanic activity. Monitoring changes in the dynamic thermal areas also supports decisions regarding the development of Yellowstone National Park infrastructure, preservation and protection of park resources, and ensuring visitor safety. Because of the challenges associated with field-based monitoring of a large, complex geothermal system that is spread out over a large and remote area, satellite-based thermal infrared images from the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) were used to map the location and spatial extent of active thermal areas, to generate thermal anomaly maps, and to quantify the radiative component of the total geothermal heat flux. ASTER thermal infrared data acquired during winter nights were used to minimize the contribution of solar heating of the surface. The ASTER thermal infrared mapping results were compared to maps of thermal areas based on field investigations and high-resolution aerial photos. Field validation of the ASTER thermal mapping is an ongoing task. The purpose of this report is to make available ASTER-based maps of Yellowstone’s thermal areas. We include an appendix containing the names and characteristics of Yellowstone’s thermal areas, georeferenced TIFF files containing ASTER thermal imagery, and several spatial data sets in Esri shapefile format.

Wyoming↗

USGS2015

Updated numerical model with uncertainty assessment of 1950-56 drought conditions on brackish-water movement within the Edwards aquifer, San Antonio, Texas

In 2010, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the San Antonio Water System, began a study to assess the brackish-water movement within the Edwards aquifer (more specifically the potential for brackish-water encroachment into wells near the interface between the freshwater and brackish-water transition zones, referred to in this report as the transition-zone interface) and effects on spring discharge at Comal and San Marcos Springs under drought conditions using a numerical model. The quantitative targets of this study are to predict the effects of higher-than-average groundwater withdrawals from wells and drought-of-record rainfall conditions of 1950–56 on (1) dissolved-solids concentration changes at production wells near the transition-zone interface, (2) total spring discharge at Comal and San Marcos Springs, and (3) the groundwater head (head) at Bexar County index well J-17. The predictions of interest, and the parameters implemented into the model, were evaluated to quantify their uncertainty so the results of the predictions could be presented in terms of a 95-percent credible interval. The model area covers the San Antonio and Barton Springs segments of the Edwards aquifer; the history-matching effort was focused on the San Antonio segment. A previously developed diffuse-flow model of the Edwards aquifer, which forms the basis for the model in this assessment, is primarily based on a conceptualization in which flow in the aquifer is predominately through a network of numerous small fractures and openings. Primary updates to this model include an extension of the active area downdip, a conversion to an 8-layer SEAWAT variable-density flow and transport model to simulate dissolved-solids concentration effects on water density, history matching to 1999–2009 conditions, and parameter estimation in a highly parameterized context using automated methods in PEST (a model-independent Parameter ESTimation code). In addition to the best-fit parameter values derived from history matching, the uncertainty of model parameters was also estimated by using linear uncertainty analysis. Comparison of “prior” (before history matching) and “posterior” (after history matching) variances of parameters indicate that the information within the observation dataset used for history matching informs many parameters. The concentration threshold parameters were well-informed by the observation dataset as their posterior distributions were much narrower than their prior distributions. The transition-zone scaling parameters of hydraulic conductivity, effective porosity, and specific storage were all informed by the observation dataset, as evidenced by the difference between the prior and posterior variances. Saline-zone scaling parameters, alternatively, were not informed by the observation dataset for effective porosity and specific storage. Resulting posterior drier-month, wetter-month, and annual recharge multiplier parameter variances are important to understanding how well recharge is estimated and implemented within the model. The shifts of the posterior distributions left and right indicate that there were zones where less or more water was needed in the model. The widths of the distributions were not decreased substantially, indicating that many of the best-fit recharge parameters are not statistically different from the initial values specified in the history-matching effort. Recharge from rainfall is the driving force behind groundwater flow and heads in the aquifer; therefore, an increase in understanding of this process would benefit model development by potentially decreasing the uncertainty of this parameter. The history-matching effort was most helpful in informing the parameters in the model that control discharge at springs, namely, the spring orifice (drain) altitude and drain conductance parameters for each spring. The uncertainty assessment of the predictive model (a hypothetical recurrence of 1950–56 drought conditions and higher-than-average groundwater withdrawals from wells) provided insights into the potential effects of these conditions on dissolved-solids concentration changes at production wells near the transition-zone interface, discharges at Comal and San Marcos Springs, and heads at Bexar County index well J-17. Results at the 25 production wells near the transition-zone interface indicate that the uncertainty of model input parameters based on expert knowledge yielded an upper bound of the 95-percent credible interval of dissolved-solids concentrations that exceeds the secondary drinking water standards of 1,000 milligrams per liter (mg/L) of the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) for many wells. However, the history-matching process provided key information to inform prediction-sensitive model parameters and therefore, contributed to a substantial decrease of the upper bound of the 95-percent credible interval to below the secondary drinking water standards. Reductions in dissolved-solids concentration changes were on the order of 400 mg/L to 1,300 mg/L. The reduction in uncertainty in regards to this prediction implies that this prediction of dissolved-solids concentration change can be made with some certainty using this current model and that those parameters that control this prediction are informed by the observation dataset. Even though predictive uncertainty was reduced for this prediction, dissolved-solids concentration changes were still greater than zero, indicating a minimal increase in concentration at these 25 production wells during the 7-year simulation period is likely. However, this minimal concentration increase indicates a small potential for movement of the brackish-water transition zone near these wells during the 7-year simulation period of drought-ofrecord (1950–56) rainfall conditions with higher-than-average groundwater withdrawals by wells. Predictive results of total spring discharge during the 7-year period, as well as head predictions at Bexar County index well J-17, were much different than the dissolved-solids concentration change results at the production wells. These upper bounds are an order of magnitude larger than the actual prediction which implies that (1) the predictions of total spring discharge at Comal and San Marcos Springs and head at Bexar County index well J-17 made with this model are not reliable, and (2) parameters that control these predictions are not informed well by the observation dataset during historymatching, even though the history-matching process yielded parameters to reproduce spring discharges and heads at these locations during the history-matching period. Furthermore, because spring discharges at these two springs and heads at Bexar County index well J-17 represent more of a cumulative effect of upstream conditions over a larger distance (and longer time), many more parameters (with their own uncertainties) are potentially controlling these predictions than the prediction of dissolved-solids concentration change at the prediction wells, and therefore contributing to a large posterior uncertainty.

Texas↗

USGS2017

Maps and grids of hydrogeologic information created from standardized water-well drillers’ records of the glaciated United States

As part of the National Water Availability and Use Program established by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in 2005, this study took advantage of about 14 million records from State-managed collections of water-well drillers’ records and created a database of hydrogeologic properties for the glaciated United States. The water-well drillers’ records were standardized to be relatively complete and error-free and to provide consistent variables and naming conventions that span all State boundaries. Maps and geospatial grids were developed for (1) total thickness of glacial deposits, (2) total thickness of coarse-grained deposits, (3) specific-capacity based transmissivity and hydraulic conductivity, and (4) texture-based estimated equivalent horizontal and vertical hydraulic conductivity and transmissivity. The information included in these maps and grids is required for most assessments of groundwater availability, in addition to having applications to studies of groundwater flow and transport. The texture-based estimated equivalent horizontal and vertical hydraulic conductivity and transmissivity were based on an assumed range of hydraulic conductivity values for coarse- and fine-grained deposits and should only be used with complete awareness of the methods used to create them. However, the maps and grids of texture-based estimated equivalent hydraulic conductivity and transmissivity may be useful for application to areas where a range of measured values is available for re-scaling. Maps of hydrogeologic information for some States are presented as examples in this report but maps and grids for all States are available electronically at the project Web site (USGS Glacial Aquifer System Groundwater Availability Study, http://mi.water.usgs.gov/projects/WaterSmart/Map-SIR2015-5105.html ) and the Science Base Web site, https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/item/58756c7ee4b0a829a3276352 .

Alaska, Connecticut, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iow↗

USGS2015

Fluvial geomorphology and suspended-sediment transport during construction of the Roanoke River Flood Reduction Project in Roanoke, Virginia, 2005–2012

Beginning in 2005, after decades of planning, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) undertook a major construction effort to reduce the effects of flooding on the city of Roanoke, Virginia—the Roanoke River Flood Reduction Project (RRFRP). Prompted by concerns about the potential for RRFRP construction-induced geomorphological instability and sediment liberation and the detrimental effects these responses could have on the endangered Roanoke logperch ( Percina rex ), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) partnered with the USACE to provide a real-time warning network and a long-term monitoring program to evaluate geomorphological change and sediment transport in the affected river reach. Geomorphological change and suspended-sediment transport are highly interdependent and cumulatively provide a detailed understanding of the sedimentary response, or lack thereof, of the Roanoke River to construction of the RRFRP. Bed-sediment composition was usually finer in post-construction than pre-construction measurements, yet the annual changes in composition were not significantly different; thus, there was minimal evidence that RRFRP construction practices alone induced fining of bed materials. Cross-sectional surveys revealed variability in bankfull and base-flow channel geometry metrics, but no significant differences in this variability were detected between pre- and post-construction measurements, excluding designed alterations in channel geometry. A lack of channel-forming streamflow events, however, limited the ability to fully characterize the stability of the constructed channel and floodplain features, as bankfull flow events occurred only 2 of the 8 years of study. Therefore, additional channel surveys may be needed in the future, once sufficient channel-forming events have occurred, to fully assess stability. Relations between turbidity and suspended sediment were statistically indistinguishable between the upstream and downstream limits of the RRFRP construction reach. These relations did not change over time, indicating no significant changes in suspended-sediment composition or source in the construction reach during the period of study. Results of the geomorphological and suspended-sediment monitoring components were largely in agreement and consistent with those of a related effort that monitored the logperch population before and during construction. These findings suggest that construction and sediment-control practices sufficiently protected in-stream habitat and the organisms that inhabit those locations, namely the Roanoke logperch, during the period monitored.

Virginia↗

USGS2016

Selected low-flow frequency statistics for continuous-record streamgages in Georgia, 2013

This report presents the annual and monthly minimum 1- and 7-day average streamflows with the 10-year recurrence interval (1Q10 and 7Q10) for 197 continuous-record streamgages in Georgia. Streamgages used in the study included active and discontinued stations having a minimum of 10 complete climatic years of record as of September 30, 2013. The 1Q10 and 7Q10 flow statistics were computed for 85 streamgages on unregulated streams with minimal diversions upstream, 43 streamgages on regulated streams, and 69 streamgages known, or considered, to be affected by varying degrees of diversions upstream. Descriptive information for each of these streamgages, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) station number, station name, latitude, longitude, county, drainage area, and period of record analyzed also is presented. Kendall’s tau nonparametric test was used to determine the statistical significance of trends in annual and monthly minimum 1-day and 7-day average flows for the 197 streamgages. Significant negative trends in the minimum annual 1-day and 7-day average streamflow were indicated for 77 of the 197 streamgages. Many of these significant negative trends are due to the period of record ending during one of the recent droughts in Georgia, particularly those streamgages with record through the 2013 water year. Long-term unregulated streamgages with 70 or more years of record indicate significant negative trends in the annual minimum 7-day average flow for central and southern Georgia. Watersheds for some of these streamgages have experienced minimal human impact, thus indicating that the significant negative trends observed in flows at the long-term streamgages may be influenced by changing climatological conditions. A Kendall-tau trend analysis of the annual air temperature and precipitation totals for Georgia indicated no significant trends. A comprehensive analysis of causes of the trends in annual and monthly minimum 1-day and 7-day average flows in central and southern Georgia is outside the scope of this study. Further study is needed to determine some of the causes, including both climatological and human impacts, of the significant negative trends in annual minimum 1-day and 7-day average flows in central and southern Georgia. To assess the changes in the annual 1Q10 and 7Q10 statistics over time for long-term continuous streamgages with significant trends in record, the annual 1Q10 and 7Q10 statistics were computed on a decadal accumulated basis for 39 streamgages having 40 or more years of record that indicated a significant trend. Records from most of the streamgages showed a decline in 7Q10 statistics for the decades of 1980–89, 1990–99, and 2000–09 because of the recent droughts in Georgia. Twenty four of the 39 streamgages had complete records from 1980 to 2010, and records from 23 of these gages exhibited a decline in the 7Q10 statistics during this period, ranging from –6.3 to –76.2 percent with a mean of –27.3 percent. No attempts were made during this study to adjust streamflow records or statistical analyses on the basis of trends. The monthly and annual 1Q10 and 7Q10 flow statistics for the entire period of record analyzed in the study are incorporated into the USGS StreamStatsDB, which is a database accessible to users through the recently released USGS StreamStats application for Georgia. StreamStats is a Web-based geographic information system that provides users with access to an assortment of analytical tools that are useful for water-resources planning and management, and for engineering design applications, such as the design of bridges. StreamStats allows users to easily obtain streamflow statistics, basin characteristics, and other information for user-selected streamgages.

Georgia↗

USGS2016

The 2014 annual report for the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory

Introduction This report summarizes team activities and findings of the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory during the year 2014 in geology, geodesy, seismicity, and gas geochemistry. The eruption of Pu‘u ‘Ō‘ō continued into its 32nd year with flows active to the northeast of the vent. One of them, the June 27th lava flow, named for the date in 2014 that the flow started, advanced far and fast enough to threaten the town of Pāhoa and Highway 130 in the Puna District of the Island of Hawai‘i. In response, the alert level for Kīlauea was elevated from WATCH to WARNING on September 4, followed by the declaration of a State Disaster on September 5 and a National Disaster on November 3. During 2014, renewed inflation and increased seismicity was detected beneath the summit and upper west flank of Mauna Loa. Although above background, the frequency and magnitude of the earthquakes remained at such low levels that, by year’s end, the four-tier alert level code for Mauna Loa remained at its lowest level—NORMAL. These changes were discussed in several Volcano Watch articles. Hualālai, Haleakalā, Mauna Kea, and Lo‘īhi showed no signs of unrest during the year.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2016

Documentation and hydrologic analysis of Hurricane Sandy in New Jersey, October 29–30, 2012

In 2012, a late season tropical depression developed into a tropical storm and later a hurricane. The hurricane, named “Hurricane Sandy,” gained strength to a Category 3 storm on October 25, 2012, and underwent several transitions on its approach to the mid-Atlantic region of the eastern coast of the United States. By October 28, 2012, Hurricane Sandy had strengthened into the largest hurricane ever recorded in the North Atlantic and was tracking parallel to the east coast of United States, heading toward New Jersey. On October 29, 2012, the storm turned west-northwest and made landfall near Atlantic City, N.J. The high winds and wind-driven storm surge caused massive damage along the entire coastline of New Jersey. Millions of people were left without power or communication networks. Many homes were completely destroyed. Sand dunes were eroded, and the barrier island at Mantoloking was breached, connecting the ocean with Barnegat Bay. Several days before the storm made landfall in New Jersey, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) made a decision to deploy a temporary network of storm-tide sensors and barometric pressure sensors from Virginia to Maine to supplement the existing USGS and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) networks of permanent tide monitoring stations. After the storm made landfall, the USGS conducted a sensor data recovery and high-water-mark collection campaign in cooperation with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). Peak storm-tide elevations documented at USGS tide gages, tidal crest-stage gages, temporary storm sensor locations, and high-water-mark sites indicate the area from southern Monmouth County, N.J., north through Raritan Bay, N.J., had the highest peak storm-tide elevations during this storm. The USGS tide gages at Raritan River at South Amboy and Raritan Bay at Keansburg, part of the New Jersey Tide Telemetry System, each recorded peak storm-tide elevations of greater than 13 feet (ft)—more than 5 ft higher than the previously recorded period-of-record maximum. A comparison of peak storm-tide elevations to preliminary FEMA Coastal Flood Insurance Study flood elevations indicated that these areas experienced the highest recurrence intervals along the coast of New Jersey. Analysis showed peak storm-tide elevations exceeded the 100-year FEMA flood elevations in many parts of Middlesex, Union, Essex, Hudson, and Bergen Counties, and peak storm-tide elevations at many locations in Monmouth County exceeded the 500-year recurrence interval. A level 1 HAZUS (HAZards United States) analysis was done for the counties in New Jersey affected by flooding to estimate total building stock losses. The aggregated total building stock losses estimated by HAZUS for New Jersey, on the basis of the final inundation verified by USGS high-water marks, was almost $19 billion. A comparison of Hurricane Sandy with historic coastal storms showed that peak storm-tide elevations associated with Hurricane Sandy exceeded most of the previously documented elevations associated with the storms of December 1992, March 1962, September 1960, and September 1944 at many coastal communities in New Jersey. This scientific investigation report was prepared in cooperation with FEMA to document flood processes and flood damages resulting from this storm and to assist in future flood mitigation actions in New Jersey.

New Jersey↗

USGS2017

Geology and mining history of the Southeast Missouri Barite District and the Valles Mines, Washington, Jefferson, and St. Francois Counties, Missouri

The Southeast Missouri Barite District and the Valles Mines are located in Washington, Jefferson, and St. Francois Counties, Missouri, where barite and lead ore are present together in surficial and near-surface deposits. Lead mining in the area began in the early 1700’s and extended into the early 1900’s. Hand mining of lead in the residuum resulted in widespread pits (also called shafts or diggings), and there was some underground mining of lead in bedrock. By the 1860’s barite was recovered from the residuum by hand mining, also resulting in widespread diggings, but generally not underground mines in bedrock. Mechanized open-pit mining of the residuum for barite began in the 1920’s. Barite production slowed by the 1980’s, and there has not been any barite mining since 1998. Mechanized barite mining resulted in large mined areas and tailings ponds containing waste from barite mills. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has determined that lead is present in surface soils in Washington and Jefferson Counties at concentrations exceeding health-based screening levels. Also, elevated concentrations of barium, arsenic, and cadmium have been identified in surface soils, and lead concentrations exceeding the Federal drinking-water standard of 15 micrograms per liter have been identified in private drinking-water wells. Potential sources of these contaminants are wastes associated with barite mining, wastes associated with lead mining, or unmined natural deposits of barium, lead, and other metals. As a first step in helping EPA determine the source of soil and groundwater contamination, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the EPA, investigated the geology and mining history of the Southeast Missouri Barite District and the Valles Mines. Ore minerals are barite (barium sulfate), galena (lead sulfide), cerussite (lead carbonate), anglesite (lead sulfate), sphalerite (zinc sulfide), smithsonite (zinc carbonate), and chalcopyrite (copper-iron sulfide). The Cambrian Potosi Dolomite is the most important formation for the ore deposits, followed by the Eminence Dolomite. Because galena, sphalerite, and barite are less soluble than dolomite, chemical weathering of the ore-bearing dolomite bedrock resulted in the concentration of ore minerals in the residuum. Most of the barite and lead mining was in the residuum, which averages 10 to 15 feet thick. Lead mining by French explorers may have begun in 1719 along Old Mines Creek at Cabanage de Renaudiere, which was followed shortly by the discovery of lead and the development of lead mines at Mine Renault (also called Forche a Renault Mine), Old Mines, and at other places along the Big River, Mineral Fork, and Forche a Renault Creek. Lead mining began sometime between 1775 and 1780 at Mine a Breton, the name of which was later changed to Potosi. Other mining areas were developed in the early part of the 19th century, including Fourche a Courtois (Palmer Mines), the French Diggings, and the Richwoods Mines. Zinc became a valuable resource after the Civil War, and the Valles Mines was an important supplier of zinc as well as lead, with at least some production up until the 1920’s. Lead mining declined in the early part of the 20th century as mining in the Old Lead Belt, Mine La Motte, and the Tri-State District expanded. The earliest lead mines were diggings in the residuum and were round holes (shafts) about 4 feet in diameter dug with pick and shovel about 15–20 feet deep, with drifts dug a short distance laterally from the bottom of the shafts. This mining process was repeated a short distance away until a large area was covered with pits. Some mining in bedrock began by about 1800, with shafts as deep as 170 feet and as much as several hundred feet of lateral drifts. Smelting of the lead ore to elemental lead was first done using a log furnace, which was inefficient; estimates have been made that only about 50 percent of the lead was recovered, and the remainder was lost to the ashes (slags) and to volatilization. Starting in 1798, ash furnaces were used to smelt the ashes from the log furnaces. These two furnaces were worked in tandem for many years but were gradually replaced by other furnaces, including the Scotch hearth. Estimates of lead recovery as high as 80–90 percent have been made for the Scotch hearth. By the mid-1870’s the air furnace was being used, also with estimated lead recovery as high as 80–90 percent. Zinc furnaces were built when zinc became a valuable commodity, but much of the zinc ore was shipped out of the area, either to a smelter in St. Louis, Missouri, or to other smelters. The total lead and zinc production from the Southeast Missouri Barite District and the Valles Mines is estimated at 180,000 tons of lead and 60,000 tons of zinc. An estimated 97,000 tons of lead and an estimated 120,000 tons of zinc were lost during smelting. The estimated losses do not include losses at the mine site during mining and preparation for smelting, such as the loss of fine-grained galena during hand cleaning or the discarding of zinc ore before its value was known, for which no estimates are available. Hand mining for barite in the residuum was active by at least the 1860’s and peaked from 1905 to the 1930’s when several thousand people were engaged in barite mining. Hand mining (diggings) and cleaning of the ore was done in much the same way as earlier lead mining, with the additional use of a rattle box to further clean the barite. Mechanized open-pit mining of old barite diggings began in 1924 to recover barite left behind by hand mining, and washing plants were used to clean the clay from the barite. Hand mining, however, continued to thrive, and washer plants began to close temporarily in 1931; nearly all of the barite produced before 1937 was by hand mining. By the 1940’s, however, all barite mining was mechanized. Mechanized mining used shovels powered by steam, gasoline, or electricity (and by the 1950’s draglines and front-end loaders) to mine the residuum. The ore was loaded onto rail cars (and by the 1940’s, trucks) for shipment to washer plants. Clay was removed from the barite using a log washer, and a jig was used to concentrate the barite. Overflow from the log washers was waste and went to a mud (tailings) pond. The coarse jig tailings went to tailings piles or were used as railroad ballast and, later, to create roads within the mine pit. Some barite was ground, depending on its final use, and some ground barite was bleached using a hot solution of sulfuric acid to remove impurities such as iron minerals and lead sulfide (galena). An earlier bleaching process used lead-lined tanks. Large quantities of water were required for milling the barite; some was recirculated water and the remainder came from dammed streams or was pumped from wells. Tailings and wastewater were impounded behind dikes that were built across small valleys and were increased in height as necessary using washer waste and any overburden that had been stripped. In some cases, dikes were built across valleys that had already been mined for barite. The total production of barite from the Southeast Missouri Barite District and the Valles Mines is estimated to have been about 13.1 million tons. Most of the barite production was from Washington County. Hand mining and processing of barite was inefficient. Estimates of barite recovery range from less than one-fourth to about one-half because pillars between the shafts in the residuum needed to be left unmined for stability. With mechanized mining, large amounts of barite were lost during the milling process. It has been estimated that about 30 percent of the barite was lost and that about two-thirds of the lost barite was fine-grained and was discharged to the tailings ponds. Some galena was lost to the tailings ponds. A 1972 inventory of tailings ponds by the Missouri Geological Survey identified 67 ponds in the Southeast Missouri Barite District (there are more than this currently documented). Results from samples from four ponds that were drilled were used to estimate that the 67 ponds contained almost 39 million tons (or cubic yards) of tailings averaging about 5 percent barite, for a potential reserve of 1.935 million tons of barite. It is not known how much lead was removed during barite mining, either by hand or mechanized mining and processing, how much lead was recovered, or how much lead went as fines to the tailing ponds or as coarse material to mine roads or was otherwise lost.

Missouri↗

USGS2017

The HayWired Earthquake Scenario

Foreword The 1906 Great San Francisco earthquake (magnitude 7.8) and the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake (magnitude 6.9) each motivated residents of the San Francisco Bay region to build countermeasures to earthquakes into the fabric of the region. Since Loma Prieta, bay-region communities, governments, and utilities have invested tens of billions of dollars in seismic upgrades and retrofits and replacements of older buildings and infrastructure. Innovation and state-of-the-art engineering, informed by science, including novel seismic-hazard assessments, have been applied to the challenge of increasing seismic resilience throughout the bay region. However, as long as people live and work in seismically vulnerable buildings or rely on seismically vulnerable transportation and utilities, more work remains to be done. With that in mind, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and its partners developed the HayWired scenario as a tool to enable further actions that can change the outcome when the next major earthquake strikes. By illuminating the likely impacts to the present-day built environment, well-constructed scenarios can and have spurred officials and citizens to take steps that change the outcomes the scenario describes, whether used to guide more realistic response and recovery exercises or to launch mitigation measures that will reduce future risk. The HayWired scenario is the latest in a series of like-minded efforts to bring a special focus onto the impacts that could occur when the Hayward Fault again ruptures through the east side of the San Francisco Bay region as it last did in 1868. Cities in the east bay along the Richmond, Oakland, and Fremont corridor would be hit hardest by earthquake ground shaking, surface fault rupture, aftershocks, and fault afterslip, but the impacts would reach throughout the bay region and far beyond. The HayWired scenario name reflects our increased reliance on the Internet and telecommunications and also alludes to the interconnectedness of infrastructure, society, and our economy. How would this earthquake scenario, striking close to Silicon Valley, impact our interconnected world in ways and at a scale we have not experienced in any previous domestic earthquake? The area of present-day Contra Costa, Alameda, and Santa Clara Counties contended with a magnitude-6.8 earthquake in 1868 on the Hayward Fault. Although sparsely populated then, about 30 people were killed and extensive property damage resulted. The question of what an earthquake like that would do today has been examined before and is now revisited in the HayWired scenario. Scientists have documented a series of prehistoric earthquakes on the Hayward Fault and are confident that the threat of a future earthquake, like that modeled in the HayWired scenario, is real and could happen at any time. The team assembled to build this scenario has brought innovative new approaches to examining the natural hazards, impacts, and consequences of such an event. Such an earthquake would also be accompanied by widespread liquefaction and landslides, which are treated in greater detail than ever before. The team also considers how the now-prototype ShakeAlert earthquake early warning system could provide useful public alerts and automatic actions. Scientific Investigations Report 2017–5013 and accompanying data releases are the products of an effort led by the USGS, but this body of work was created through the combined efforts of a large team including partners who have come together to form the HayWired Coalition (see chapter A). Use of the HayWired scenario has already begun. More than a full year of intensive partner engagement, beginning in April 2017, is being directed toward producing the most in-depth look ever at the impacts and consequences of a large earthquake on the Hayward Fault. With the HayWired scenario, our hope is to encourage and support the active ongoing engagement of the entire community of the San Francisco Bay region by providing the scientific, engineering, and economic and social science inputs for use in exercises and planning well into the future. As HayWired volumes are published, they will be made available at https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20175013 .

California↗

USGS2017

Estimation of low-flow statistics at ungaged sites on streams in the Lower Hudson River Basin, New York, from data in geographic information systems

A variety of watershed properties available in 2015 from geographic information systems were tested in regression equations to estimate two commonly used statistical indices of the low flow of streams, namely the lowest flows averaged over 7 consecutive days that have a 1 in 10 and a 1 in 2 chance of not being exceeded in any given year (7-day, 10-year and 7-day, 2-year low flows). The equations were based on streamflow measurements in 51 watersheds in the Lower Hudson River Basin of New York during the years 1958–1978, when the number of streamflow measurement sites on unregulated streams was substantially greater than in subsequent years. These low-flow indices are chiefly a function of the area of surficial sand and gravel in the watershed; more precisely, 7-day, 10-year and 7-day, 2-year low flows both increase in proportion to the area of sand and gravel deposited by glacial meltwater, whereas 7-day, 2-year low flows also increase in proportion to the area of postglacial alluvium. Both low-flow statistics are also functions of mean annual runoff (a measure of net water input to the watershed from precipitation) and area of swamps and poorly drained soils in or adjacent to surficial sand and gravel (where groundwater recharge is unlikely and riparian water loss to evapotranspiration is substantial). Small but significant refinements in estimation accuracy resulted from the inclusion of two indices of stream geometry, channel slope and length, in the regression equations. Most of the regression analysis was undertaken with the ordinary least squares method, but four equations were replicated by using weighted least squares to provide a more realistic appraisal of the precision of low-flow estimates. The most accurate estimation equations tested in this study explain nearly 84 and 87 percent of the variation in 7-day, 10-year and 7-day, 2-year low flows, respectively, with standard errors of 0.032 and 0.050 cubic feet per second per square mile. The equations use natural values of streamflow and watershed properties; logarithmic transformations yielded less accurate equations inconsistent with some conceptualized relationships.

New York↗