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USGS2017

Measuring the role of seagrasses in regulating sediment surface elevation

Seagrass meadows provide numerous ecosystem services and their rapid global loss may reduce human welfare as well as ecological integrity. In common with the other ‘blue carbon’ habitats (mangroves and tidal marshes) seagrasses are thought to provide coastal defence and encourage sediment stabilisation and surface elevation. A sophisticated understanding of sediment elevation dynamics in mangroves and tidal marshes has been gained by monitoring a wide range of different sites, located in varying hydrogeomorphological conditions over long periods. In contrast, similar evidence for seagrasses is sparse; the present study is a contribution towards filling this gap. Surface elevation change pins were deployed in four locations, Scotland, Kenya, Tanzania and Saudi Arabia, in both seagrass and unvegetated control plots in the low intertidal and shallow subtidal zone. The presence of seagrass had a highly significant, positive impact on surface elevation at all sites. Combined data from the current work and the literature show an average difference of 31 mm per year in elevation rates between vegetated and unvegetated areas, which emphasizes the important contribution of seagrass in facilitating sediment surface elevation and reducing erosion. This paper presents the first multi-site study for sediment surface elevation in seagrasses in different settings and species.

Scientific Reports↗

USGS2019

Marine fog inputs appear to increase methylmercury bioaccumulation in a coastal terrestrial food web

Coastal marine atmospheric fog has recently been implicated as a potential source of ocean-derived monomethylmercury (MMHg) to coastal terrestrial ecosystems through the process of sea-to-land advection of foggy air masses followed by wet deposition. This study examined whether pumas ( Puma concolor ) in coastal central California, USA, and their associated food web, have elevated concentrations of MMHg, which could be indicative of their habitat being in a region that is regularly inundated with marine fog. We found that adult puma fur and fur-normalized whiskers in our marine fog-influenced study region had a mean (±SE) total Hg (THg) (a convenient surrogate for MMHg) concentration of 1544 ± 151 ng g −1 (N = 94), which was three times higher ( P < 0.01) than mean THg in comparable samples from inland areas of California (492 ± 119 ng g −1 , N = 18). Pumas in California eat primarily black-tailed and/or mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ), and THg in deer fur from the two regions was also significantly different (coastal 28.1 ± 2.9, N = 55, vs. inland 15.5 ± 1.5 ng g −1 , N = 40). We suggest that atmospheric deposition of MMHg through fog may be contributing to this pattern, as we also observed significantly higher MMHg concentrations in lace lichen ( Ramalina menziesii ), a deer food and a bioindicator of atmospheric deposition, at sites with the highest fog frequencies. At these ocean-facing sites, deer samples had significantly higher THg concentrations compared to those from more inland bay-facing sites. Our results suggest that fog-borne MMHg, while likely a small fraction of Hg in all atmospheric deposition, may contribute, disproportionately, to the bioaccumulation of Hg to levels that approach toxicological thresholds in at least one apex predator. As global mercury levels increase, coastal food webs may be at risk to the toxicological effects of increased methylmercury burdens.

California↗

USGS2025

Precipitation timing mediates life-stage and population-level associations with climate for an indicator species

Global climate change is contributing to declines in biodiversity, although changes vary across geographic regions and species. The iconic greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; sage-grouse) is central to conservation within the North American sagebrush ecosystem, yet its vulnerability to climate effects remains poorly understood. We used hierarchical models to explore weather and climatic influences on sage-grouse across nearly four decades, focusing first on pattern (population change), then process (demographic life stage). We quantified eight indicators of temperature and/or moisture conditions across time lags of 0–1.5 years leading up to current year breeding activities. Sage-grouse population growth tended to increase following above-average growing season precipitation. Precipitation or drought timing influenced whether process effects were positive or negative. More summer and/or fall moisture corresponded with increases in subsequent year brood and adult survival, while concurrent seasonal drought led to reductions in nest survival. Positive concurrent spring drought associations with adult and brood survival were largely outweighed by positive prior year moisture effects. Density-dependence and indirect effects of precipitation through vegetation and forage resource pathways likely contributed to nuanced responses across life stages. Our research improves mechanistic understanding of this indicator species’ sensitivity to climatic factors, while reinforcing the importance of large-scale conservation initiatives for sagebrush ecosystems.

Scientific Reports↗

USGS2024

Trends and environmental impacts of virtual water trade

Virtual water describes water embedded in the production of goods and offers meaningful insights about the complex interplay between water, trade and sustainability. In this Review, we examine the trends, major players, traded products and key drivers of virtual water trade (VWT). Roughly 20% of water used in global food production is traded virtually rather than domestically consumed. As such, agriculture dominates VWT, with livestock products, wheat, maize, soybean, oil palm, coffee and cocoa contributing over 70% of total VWT. These products are also driving VWT growth, the volume of which has increased 2.9 times from 1986 to 2022. However, the countries leading VWT contributions (with China, the United States, the Netherlands, Germany and India accounting for 34% of the global VWT in 2022) have remained relatively stable over time, albeit with China becoming an increasingly important importer. VWT can mitigate the effects of water scarcity and food insecurity, although there are concerns about the disconnect between consumers and the environmental impacts of their choices, and unsustainable resource exploitation. Indeed, approximately 16% of unsustainable water use and 11% of global groundwater depletion are virtually traded. Future VWT analyses must consider factors such as water renewability, water quality, climate change impacts and socioeconomic implications.

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment↗

USGS2025

Advancing the science of headwater streamflow for global water protection

The protection of headwater streams faces increasing challenges, exemplified by limited global recognition of headwater contributions to watershed resiliency and a recent US Supreme Court decision limiting federal safeguards. Despite accounting for ~77% of global river networks, the lack of adequate headwaters protections is caused, in part, by limited information on their extent and functions—in particular, their flow regimes, which form the foundation for decision-making regarding their protection. Yet, headwater streamflow is challenging to comprehensively measure and model; it is highly variable and sensitive to changes in land use, management and climate. Modelling headwater streamflow to quantify its cumulative contributions to downstream river networks requires an integrative understanding across local hillslope and channel (that is, watershed) processes. Here we begin to address this challenge by proposing a consistent definition for headwater systems and streams, evaluating how headwater streamflow is characterized and advocating for closing gaps in headwater streamflow data collection, modelling and synthesis.

Nature Water↗

USGS2015

What role do hurricanes play in sediment delivery to subsiding river deltas?

The Mississippi River Delta (MRD) has undergone tremendous land loss over the past century due to natural and anthropogenic influences, a fate shared by many river deltas globally. A globally unprecedented effort to restore and sustain the remaining subaerial portions of the delta is now underway, an endeavor that is expected to cost $50–100B over the next 50 yr. Success of this effort requires a thorough understanding of natural and anthropogenic controls on sediment supply and delta geomorphology. In the MRD, hurricanes have been paradoxically identified as both substantial agents of widespread land loss, and vertical marsh sediment accretion. We present the first multi-decadal chronostratigraphic assessment of sediment supply for a major coastal basin of the MRD that assesses both fluvial and hurricane-induced contributions to sediment accumulation in deltaic wetlands. Our findings indicate that over multidecadal timescales, hurricane-induced sediment delivery may be an important contributor for deltaic wetland vertical accretion, but the contribution from hurricanes to long-term sediment accumulation is substantially less than sediment delivery supplied by existing and planned river-sediment diversions at present-day river-sediment loads.

Mississippi↗

USGS2012

Fluvial transport and surface enrichment of arsenic in semi-arid mining regions: examples from the Mojave Desert, California

As a result of extensive gold and silver mining in the Mojave Desert, southern California, mine wastes and tailings containing highly elevated arsenic (As) concentrations remain exposed at a number of former mining sites. Decades of weathering and erosion have contributed to the mobilization of As-enriched tailings, which now contaminate surrounding communities. Fluvial transport plays an intermittent yet important and relatively undocumented role in the migration and dispersal of As-contaminated mine wastes in semi-arid climates. Assessing the contribution of fluvial systems to tailings mobilization is critical in order to assess the distribution and long-term exposure potential of tailings in a mining-impacted environment. Extensive sampling, chemical analysis, and geospatial mapping of dry streambed (wash) sediments, tailings piles, alluvial fans, and rainwater runoff at multiple mine sites have aided the development of a conceptual model to explain the fluvial migration of mine wastes in semi-arid climates. Intense and episodic precipitation events mobilize mine wastes downstream and downslope as a series of discrete pulses, causing dispersion both down and lateral to washes with exponential decay behavior as distance from the source increases. Accordingly a quantitative model of arsenic concentrations in wash sediments, represented as a series of overlapping exponential power-law decay curves, results in the acceptable reproducibility of observed arsenic concentration patterns. Such a model can be transferable to other abandoned mine lands as a predictive tool for monitoring the fate and transport of arsenic and related contaminants in similar settings. Effective remediation of contaminated mine wastes in a semi-arid environment requires addressing concurrent changes in the amounts of potential tailings released through fluvial processes and the transport capacity of a wash.

California↗

USGS2019

Emerging investigator series: Atmospheric cycling of indium in the northeastern United States

Indium is critical to the global economy and is used in an increasing number of electronics and new energy technologies. However, little is known about its environmental behavior or impacts, including its concentrations or cycling in the atmosphere. This study determined indium concentrations in air particulate matter at five locations across the northeastern United States over the course of one year, in 1995. Historical records from a Massachusetts bog core showed that indium atmospheric concentrations in this region changed only modestly between 1995 and 2010. Atmospheric indium concentrations varied significantly both geographically and temporally, with average concentrations in PM 3 of 2.1 ± 1.6 pg m −3 (1 standard deviation), and average particle-normalized concentrations of 0.2 ± 0.2 μg In per g PM 3 . Peaks in the particle-normalized concentrations in two New York sites were correlated with wind direction; air coming from the north contributed higher concentrations of indium than air coming from the west. This correlation, along with measurements of indium in zinc smelter emissions and coal fly ash, suggests that indium in the atmosphere in the northeastern United States comes from a relatively constant low-level input from coal combustion in the midwest, and higher but more sporadic contributions from the smelting of lead, zinc, copper, tin, and nickel north of the New York sample sites. Understanding the industrial sources of indium to the atmosphere and how they compare with natural sources can lead to a better understanding of the impact of human activities on the indium cycle, and may help to establish a baseline for monitoring future impacts as indium use grows.

Massachusetts, New York↗

USGS2004

Founding events influence genetic population structure of sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) in Lake Clark, Alaska

Bottlenecks can have lasting effects on genetic population structure that obscure patterns of contemporary gene flow and drift. Sockeye salmon are vulnerable to bottleneck effects because they are a highly structured species with excellent colonizing abilities and often occupy geologically young habitats. We describe genetic divergence among and genetic variation within spawning populations of sockeye salmon throughout the Lake Clark area of Alaska. Fin tissue was collected from sockeye salmon representing 15 spawning populations of Lake Clark, Six-mile Lake, and Lake Iliamna. Allele frequencies differed significantly at 11 microsatellite loci in 96 of 105 pairwise population comparisons. Pairwise estimates of FST ranged from zero to 0.089. Six-mile Lake and Lake Clark populations have historically been grouped together for management purposes and are geographically proximate. However, Six-mile Lake populations are genetically similar to Lake Iliamna populations and are divergent from Lake Clark populations. The reduced allelic diversity and strong divergence of Lake Clark populations relative to Six-mile Lake and Lake Iliamna populations suggest a bottleneck associated with the colonization of Lake Clark by sockeye salmon. Geographic distance and spawning habitat differences apparently do not contribute to isolation and divergence among populations. However, temporal isolation based on spawning time and founder effects associated with ongoing glacial retreat and colonization of new spawning habitats contribute to the genetic population structure of Lake Clark sock-eye salmon. Nonequilibrium conditions and the strong influence of genetic drift caution against using estimates of divergence to estimate gene flow among populations of Lake Clark sockeye salmon.

Molecular Ecology↗

USGS2001

Early post-fire succession in California chaparral: Changes in diversity, density, cover and biomass

For four consecutive years, following the fires in November 1993, temporal variations in species richness, cover and biomass of component plant groups in early post-fire chaparral succession were monitored on different aspects at the Stunt Ranch Santa Monica Mountains Reserve, southern California. Plant groups were categorized based on growth form, life form, ability to fix nitrogen, geographic origin and regeneration strategies. North-facing slopes exhibited higher species richness, higher species turnover rate over time and faster vegetation recovery in terms of biomass accumulation and return to pre-fire species composition. This was probably due to higher species richness and biomass of nitrogen-fixing species found on north-facing slopes in comparison to south-facing slopes. On both north- and south-facing slopes, annuals had the highest species turnover rate, followed by herbaceous perennials and shrubs. In the first four post-fire years, annual species were the largest floristic group, but herbaceous perennials and shrubs were the major contributors to community biomass. Nitrogen-fixing species and exotics contributed significantly to early post-fire community structure. Although the general trends in post-fire succession are clear in terms of temporal changes in the relative proportions of different plant groups, environmental variation and the nature of plant life histories of component species, especially dominant species, could alter such trends significantly.

Ecological Research↗

USGS2003

Effects of prairie fragmentation on the nest success of breeding birds in the midcontinental United States

Grassland fragmentation and habitat loss are hypothesized to be contributing to widespread grassland bird declines in North America due to the adverse effects of fragmentation on breeding bird abundance and reproductive success. To assess the effects of fragmentation on the reproductive success of grassland birds, we measured rates of nest predation and brood parasitism for four species of birds ( Grasshopper Sparrow [ Ammodramus savannaru ], Henslow's Sparrow[ Ammodramus henslowii ], Eastern Meadowlark [ Sturnella magna ], and Dickcissel [ Spiza Americana ] ) in 39 prairie fragments ranging from 24 to>40,000 ha in size in five states in the mid-continental United States. Throughout the region, nest-predation rates were significantly influenced by habitat fragmentation. Nest predation was highest in small (<100 ha ) and lowest in large ( >1000 ha ) prairie fragments. Rates of brood parasitism by Brown-headed Cowbirds ( Molothrus ater ), however, were not consistently related to fragment size and instead were more strongly related to regional cowbird abundance, being significantly higher in regions with high cowbird abundance. Differences in nest-predation rates between large fragments ( 54–68% of all nests lost to predators ) and small fragments ( 78–84% lost to predators ) suggest that fragmentation of prairie habitats may be contributing to regional declines of grassland birds. Maintaining grassland bird populations, therefore, may require protection and restoration of large prairie areas.

Conservation Biology↗

USGS2001

Correlates to colonizations of new patches by translocated populations of bighorn sheep

By 1950, bighorn sheep were extirpated from large areas of their range. Most extant populations of bighorn sheep ( Ovis canadensis ) in the Intermountain West consist of <100 individuals occurring in a fragmented distribution across the landscape. Dispersal and successful colonizations of unoccupied habitat patches has been rarely reported, and, in particular, translocated populations have been characterized by limited population growth and limited dispersal rates. Restoration of the species is greatly assisted by dispersal and successful colonization of new patches within a metapopulation structure versus the existing scenario of negligible dispersal and fragmented, small populations. We investigated the correlates for the rate of colonizations of 79 suitable, but unoccupied, patches by 31 translocated populations of bighorn sheep released into nearby patches of habitat. Population growth rates of bighorn sheep in the release patches were correlated to N e of the founder group, and early contact with a second released population in a nearby release patch (logistic regression, p = 0.08). Largest population size of all extant released populations in 1994 was correlated to potential N e of the founder group, the number of different source populations represented in the founder, and early contact with a second released population ( p = 0.016). Dispersal rates were 100% higher in rams than ewes ( p = 0.001). Successful colonizations of unoccupied patches ( n = 24 of 79 were colonized) were associated with rapid growth rates in the released population, years since release, larger area of suitable habitat in the release patch, larger population sizes, and a seasonal migratory tendency in the released population ( p = 0.05). Fewer water barriers, more open vegetation and more rugged, broken terrain in the intervening habitat were also associated with colonizations ( p = <0.05). We concluded that high dispersal rates and rapid reoccupation of large areas could occur if bighorn sheep are placed in large patches of habitat with few barriers to movements to other patches and with no domestic sheep present. Many restorations in the past that did not meet these criteria may have contributed to an insular population structure of bighorn sheep with limited observations of dispersal.

Restoration Ecology↗

USGS2024

Genetic origins of a resurging lake whitefish, Coregonus clupeaformis, population in the Detroit River, Laurentian Great Lakes

The Detroit River connects Lake Huron and Lake Erie of the Laurentian Great Lakes. The river once supported a substantial lake whitefish ( Coregonus clupeaformis ) fishery until the early 1900s, when habitat loss, pollution, and overfishing contributed to the collapse of the fishery and loss of spawning populations in the river. In the early 1970s, efforts were initiated to improve water and habitat quality, and in December 2005 a spawning male lake whitefish and viable eggs were collected; the first documented evidence of spawning since 1916. Researchers have tracked the spawning magnitude of the lake whitefish population in the Detroit River since 2005 by assessing the number of eggs deposited on egg mats. Genetic analysis of larval fish hatched from eggs collected in the field between 2005 and 2018 was used to determine the relative contributions of Lake Erie and Lake Huron to the resurging population. Over 80% of the hatched larvae had parents originating from Lake Erie in all the years sampled. The estimated number of full-sibling families sampled at Belle Isle was the same in 2010 and 2014 and varied between 2009 and 2016 at Fighting Island. The estimated number of lake whitefish parents at Fighting Island decreased in the most recent collections possibly due to loss of habitat on spawning reefs due to sedimentation. Our results provide additional evidence that restored spawning habitat in the Detroit River is again being used by lake whitefish and continued reproduction at these sites may improve the Great Lakes portfolio of ecological and genetic diversity.

Detroit River↗

USGS2004

Use of qualitative and quantitative information in neural networks for assessing agricultural chemical contamination of domestic wells

A neural network analysis of agrichemical occurrence in groundwater was conducted using data from a pilot study of 192 small-diameter drilled and driven wells and 115 dug and bored wells in Illinois, a regional reconnaissance network of 303 wells across 12 Midwestern states, and a study of 687 domestic wells across Iowa. Potential factors contributing to well contamination (e.g., depth to aquifer material, well depth, and distance to cropland) were investigated. These contributing factors were available in either numeric (actual or categorical) or descriptive (yes or no) format. A method was devised to use the numeric and descriptive values simultaneously. Training of the network was conducted using a standard backpropagation algorithm. Approximately 15% of the data was used for testing. Analysis indicated that training error was quite low for most data. Testing results indicated that it was possible to predict the contamination potential of a well with pesticides. However, predicting the actual level of contamination was more difficult. For pesticide occurrence in drilled and driven wells, the network predictions were good. The performance of the network was poorer for predicting nitrate occurrence in dug and bored wells. Although the data set for Iowa was large, the prediction ability of the trained network was poor, due to descriptive or categorical input parameters, compared with smaller data sets such as that for Illinois, which contained more numeric information.

Journal of Hydrologic Engineering↗

USGS2013

2D IR spectra of cyanide in water investigated by molecular dynamics simulations

Using classical molecular dynamics simulations, the 2D infrared (IR) spectroscopy of CN − solvated in D 2 O is investigated. Depending on the force field parametrizations, most of which are based on multipolar interactions for the CN − molecule, the frequency-frequency correlation function and observables computed from it differ. Most notably, models based on multipoles for CN − and TIP3P for water yield quantitatively correct results when compared with experiments. Furthermore, the recent finding that T 1 times are sensitive to the van der Waals ranges on the CN − is confirmed in the present study. For the linear IR spectrum, the best model reproduces the full widths at half maximum almost quantitatively (13.0 cm −1 vs. 14.9 cm −1 ) if the rotational contribution to the linewidth is included. Without the rotational contribution, the lines are too narrow by about a factor of two, which agrees with Raman and IR experiments. The computed and experimental tilt angles (or nodal slopes) α as a function of the 2D IR waiting time compare favorably with the measured ones and the frequency fluctuation correlation function is invariably found to contain three time scales: a sub-ps, 1 ps, and one on the 10-ps time scale. These time scales are discussed in terms of the structural dynamics of the surrounding solvent and it is found that the longest time scale (≈10 ps) most likely corresponds to solvent exchange between the first and second solvation shell, in agreement with interpretations from nuclear magnetic resonance measurements.

Journal of Chemical Physics↗

USGS2025

Causal analysis of fire regime drivers in California

Background Understanding the relative contribution of climate and human factors to wildfires is critical for managing risk across California’s diverse ecosystems, in the United States (US). Aims We propose a model that distinguishes between proximate and ultimate drivers of fire regimes and apply it to a century of fire and climate data to assess regional variation in causal mechanisms. Methods We analyzed fire statistics (1910–2021) alongside climate and weather data, stratifying the state by 10 ecoregions. Key results Northern forests had the strongest correlation with the proximate factor fuel aridity, ultimately due to climate. Fire rotation intervals exceeded 100 years, implicating woody fuel accumulation as an additional factor. Lightning ignitions occurred in decadal bursts, with dense strike events potentially overwhelming fire-fighting resources. Lower elevation/latitude foothill ecoregions experienced highest fire activity following wet winters and springs, implicating control by herbaceous fuel loads and a negative effect of global warming on future fires. Human ignitions dominate in these ecoregions, and population growth contributes to expansion of powerlines, a major ignition source. Conclusions While climate change may increase fire activity in forested ecoregions, its role is less pronounced in non-forested ecoregions, where human ignition sources are the dominant factor. Implications Different areas within ecoregions may require different management actions that reflect the specific proximate and ultimate factors at play.

California↗

USGS2001

Aeolian dust in Colorado Plateau soils: Nutrient inputs and recent change in source

Aeolian dust (windblown silt and clay) is an important component in arid-land ecosystems because it may contribute to soil formation and furnish essential nutrients. Few geologic surfaces, however, have been characterized with respect to dust-accumulation history and resultant nutrient enrichment. We have developed a combination of methods to identify the presence of aeolian dust in arid regions and to evaluate the roles of this dust in ecosystem processes. Unconsolidated sandy sediment on isolated surfaces in the Canyonlands region of the Colorado Plateau differs greatly in mineralogical and chemical composition from associated bedrock, mainly aeolian sandstone. Detrital magnetite in the surficial deposits produces moderately high values of magnetic susceptibility, but magnetite is absent in nearby bedrock. A component of the surficial deposits must be aeolian to account for the abundance of magnetite, which formed originally in far-distant igneous rocks. Particle-size analysis suggests that the aeolian dust component is typically as much as 20–30%. Dust inputs have enriched the sediments in many elements, including P, Mg, Na, K, and Mo, as well as Ca, at sites where bedrock lacks calcite cement. Soil-surface biologic crusts are effective dust traps that apparently record a change in dust sources over the past several decades. Some of the recently fallen dust may result from human disturbance of land surfaces that are far from the Canyonlands, such as the Mojave Desert. Some land-use practices in the study area have the potential to deplete soil fertility by means of wind-erosion removal of aeolian silt. Many studies have addressed the presence of aeolian dust in soils and surficial deposits in deserts to provide important geologic and ecologic information bearing on landscape dynamics (1–16). From this body of work, we have improved understanding about: ( i ) current and past sources and flux of dust, hence changing conditions of dust emission; ( ii ) the genesis of desert soils; ( iii ) the influences of aeolian silt and clay on water-infiltration rates in soil; ( iv ) the evolution of desert surfaces (such as desert pavement) relevant to surface stability, as well as the distribution of surface and subsurface water; and ( v ) interrelations among aeolian dust, distribution of plants and soil crust, rain-water runoff, and productivity. Nevertheless, we lack fundamental knowledge about the accumulation history of aeolian dust on most landscapes and about how to discriminate between contributions from parent material and aeolian dust to the biotic system. Although many different methods provide clear evidence for aeolian input into soils (4, 6, 8, 9, 11, 13, 17, 18), ecosystem studies would benefit from rapid assessment of aeolian components in soils. Here we demonstrate that magnetic methods, which characterize the type and distribution of iron oxide minerals, can be applied to detect the presence of aeolian dust in young surficial sediments and soils over large arid-land areas. The magnetic results, combined with geochemical and textural analyses, form a basis for understanding the influence of fine-grained aeolian inputs on soil fertility of the central Colorado Plateau, Utah.

Utah↗

USGS2015

Ecosystem carbon stocks and sequestration potential of federal lands across the conterminous United States

Federal lands across the conterminous United States (CONUS) account for 23.5% of the CONUS terrestrial area but have received no systematic studies on their ecosystem carbon (C) dynamics and contribution to the national C budgets. The methodology for US Congress-mandated national biological C sequestration potential assessment was used to evaluate ecosystem C dynamics in CONUS federal lands at present and in the future under three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios (IPCC SRES) A1B, A2, and B1. The total ecosystem C stock was estimated as 11,613 Tg C in 2005 and projected to be 13,965 Tg C in 2050, an average increase of 19.4% from the baseline. The projected annual C sequestration rate (in kilograms of carbon per hectare per year) from 2006 to 2050 would be sinks of 620 and 228 for forests and grasslands, respectively, and C sources of 13 for shrublands. The federal lands’ contribution to the national ecosystem C budget could decrease from 23.3% in 2005 to 20.8% in 2050. The C sequestration potential in the future depends not only on the footprint of individual ecosystems but also on each federal agency’s land use and management. The results presented here update our current knowledge about the baseline ecosystem C stock and sequestration potential of federal lands, which would be useful for federal agencies to decide management practices to achieve the national greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation goal.

PNAS↗