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At least 1,711 records · Page 95Linked to original sources

USGS2012

Regional shoreline change and coastal erosion hazards in Arctic Alaska

Historical shoreline positions along the mainland Beaufort Sea coast of Alaska were digitized and analyzed to determine the long-term rate of change. Average shoreline change rates and ranges from 1947 to the mid-2000s were determined every 50 meters between Barrow and Demarcation Point, at the U.S.-Canadian border. Results show that shoreline change rates are highly variable along the coast, with an average regional shoreline change rate of-2.0 m/yr and localized rates of up to -19 m/yr. The highest erosion rates were observed at headlands, points, and associated with breached thermokarst lakes. Areas of accretion were limited, and generally associated with spit extension and minor beach accretion. In general, erosion rates increase from east to west, with overall higher rates east of Harrison Bay.

Alaska↗

USGS2000

Characterizing Manatee habitat use and seagrass grazing in Florida and Puerto Rico: Implications for conservation and management

The Indian River Lagoon on the Atlantic coast of Florida, USA, and the east coast of Puerto Rico provide contrasting environments in which the endangered West Indian Manatee Trichechus manatus experiences different thermal regimes and seagrass communities. We compare Manatee feeding behaviour in these two regions, examine the ecological effects of Manatee grazing on a seagrass community in the Indian River Lagoon, describe the utility of aerial surveys, radio tracking, and seagrass mapping to study Manatee feeding patterns, and develop hypotheses on sirenian feeding strategies in temperate and tropical seagrass communities. In both the Indian River Lagoon and Puerto Rico, Manatees were typically observed grazing in water depths = 2.0 m and more frequently on the most abundant seagrasses present in the community: Halodule wrightii in the Indian River Lagoon and Thalassia testudinum in eastern Puerto Rico. Where both H. wrightii and Syringodium filiforme were consumed in the Indian River Lagoon, Manatees tended to remove more S. filiforme than H. wrightii rhizome + root biomass. Even though 80 to 95% of the short-shoot biomass and 50 to 67% of the rhizome + root biomass were removed, grazed patches of H. wrightii and S. filiforme recovered significantly between February and August. H. wrightii may be both more resistant and resilient than S. filiforme to the impacts of Manatee grazing. Despite the significantly greater abundance of T. testudinum in Puerto Rico, Manatees exhibited selective feeding by returning to specific sites with abundant H. wrightii. They also appeared to feed selectively on T. testudinum shoots associated with clumps of the calcareous alga Halimeda opuntia. We hypothesize that Florida Manatees are less specialized seagrass grazers than Manatees in tropical regions like Puerto Rico. Continued research on Manatee grazing ecology in temperate to tropical seagrass communities will enable better protection and management of these vital and unique marine resources.

Florida↗

USGS2015

Intra-annual patterns in adult band-tailed pigeon survival estimates

Context: The band-tailed pigeon ( Patagioenas fasciata ) is a migratory species occurring in western North America with low recruitment potential and populations that have declined an average of 2.4% per year since the 1960s. Investigations into band-tailed pigeon demographic rates date back to the early 1900s, and existing annual survival rate estimates were derived in the 1970s using band return data. Aims: The primary purpose of the paper was to demonstrate that the apparent paradox between band-tailed pigeon population dynamics (long-term steady decline) and breeding season survival rates (very high) can be explained by changes in survival probability during the remainder of the year. Methods: We trapped Pacific coast band-tailed pigeons during two separate periods: we equipped pigeons with very high frequency (VHF) radio-transmitters in 1999–2000 (1999 = 20; 2000 = 34); and outfitted pigeons with solar powered platform transmitting terminal (PTT) transmitters in 2006–08 (n = 20). We used known fate models to estimate annual survival rates and seasonal survival variation among four periods based on an annual behavioural cycle based on phenological events (nesting, autumn migration, winter and spring migrations). We used model averaged parameter estimates to account for model selection uncertainty. Key results: Neither body condition nor sex were associated with variation in band-tailed pigeon survival rates. Weekly survival during the nesting season did not differ significantly between VHF-marked (0.996; CI = 0.984–0.999) and PTT-marked pigeons (0.998; CI = 0.990–1.00). Model averaged annual survival of PTT-marked pigeons was 0.682 (95% CI = 0.426–0.861) and was similar to annual survival estimated in previous studies using band return data. Survival probability was lowest during both migration periods and highest during the nesting period. Conclusions: Our survival estimates are consistent with those of prior studies and suggest that mortality risk is greatest during migration. Weekly survival probability during winter was nearly the same as during the nesting season; however, winter was the longest period and survival throughout winter was lower than other seasons. Implications: We present the first inter-seasonal analysis of survival probability of the Pacific coast race of band-tailed pigeons and illustrate important temporal patterns that may influence future species management including harvest strategies and disease monitoring.

Wildlife Research↗

USGS2014

Densovirus associated with sea-star wasting disease and mass mortality

Populations of at least 20 asteroid species on the Northeast Pacific Coast have recently experienced an extensive outbreak of sea-star (asteroid) wasting disease (SSWD). The disease leads to behavioral changes, lesions, loss of turgor, limb autotomy, and death characterized by rapid degradation (“melting”). Here, we present evidence from experimental challenge studies and field observations that link the mass mortalities to a densovirus (Parvoviridae). Virus-sized material (i.e., <0.2 μm) from symptomatic tissues that was inoculated into asymptomatic asteroids consistently resulted in SSWD signs whereas animals receiving heat-killed (i.e., control) virus-sized inoculum remained asymptomatic. Viral metagenomic investigations revealed the sea star-associated densovirus (SSaDV) as the most likely candidate virus associated with tissues from symptomatic asteroids. Quantification of SSaDV during transmission trials indicated that progression of SSWD paralleled increased SSaDV load. In field surveys, SSaDV loads were more abundant in symptomatic than in asymptomatic asteroids. SSaDV could be detected in plankton, sediments and in nonasteroid echinoderms, providing a possible mechanism for viral spread. SSaDV was detected in museum specimens of asteroids from 1942, suggesting that it has been present on the North American Pacific Coast for at least 72 y. SSaDV is therefore the most promising candidate disease agent responsible for asteroid mass mortality.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗

USGS2021

Short communication: evidence for geologic control of rip channels along Prince Edward Island, Canada

Rip currents can move unsuspecting swimmers offshore rapidly and represent a significant risk to beach users worldwide, including along the northern coast of Prince Edward Island (PEI), Canada. Although many rip currents are ephemeral and/or spatially variable in response to changes in the nearshore bar morphology and wave and tidal forcing, it is possible for rip channels to be geologically controlled and quasi-permanent in morphology, location, and flow. Several rip channels along the northern coast of PEI appear in the same location from year to year and correspond to elongated lakes, rivers, or swales behind the modern coastal dune system. Given their persistent location and alignment with back dune hydrology, ground-penetrating radar surveys were collected along Brackley and Cavendish Beaches in July 2019 to determine whether persistent rip channels are associated with now-buried river channels extending beneath the modern dunes and continuing offshore. Strong reflectors similar to V-shaped river valleys are present in alongshore transects at both beaches. These infilled valleys align with back-dune hydrology and persistent rip channels, suggesting modern rip channels are structurally controlled and maintained by antecedent geology. This link provides important guidance to beach access management and the distribution of lifesaving strategies along the affected beaches.

Prince Edward Island↗

USGS2012

Spatial and temporal diet patterns of subadult and small adult striped bass in Massachusetts estuaries: Data, a synthesis, and trends across scales

Subadult and small adult (375–475 mm total length) striped bass Morone saxatilis are abundant and represent an important component of the recovered U.S. Atlantic coast stocks. However, little is known about these large aggregations of striped bass during their annual foraging migrations to New England. A quantitative understanding of trends in the diets of subadult and small adult migrants is critical to research and management. Because of the complexity of the Massachusetts coast, we were able to compare diets at multiple spatial, temporal, and taxonomic scales and evaluate which of these provided the greatest insights into the foraging patterns of this size of fish. Specifically, during spring through autumn, we quantified the diets of 797 migratory striped bass collected from 13 Massachusetts estuaries distributed among three geographic regions in two biogeographic provinces. Our data provided three useful results. First, subadult and young adult striped bass ate a season-specific mixture of fish and invertebrates. For example, more juvenile Atlantic herring Clupea harengus were eaten in spring than in summer or autumn, more juvenile Atlantic menhaden Brevoortia tyrannus were eaten in autumn than in spring or summer, amphipods were eaten primarily in the southern biogeographic province, and shrimp Crangon sp. were eaten in all locations and seasons. Second, examining diets by season was essential because of the temporal variability in striped bass prey. Grouping prey by fish and invertebrates revealed the potential for predictable differences in growth across geographic locations and seasons, based on the output from simple bioenergetics simulations. Third, of the three spatial scales examined, region provided the most quantitative and interpretable ecological trends. Our results demonstrate the utility of comparing multiple scales to evaluate the best way to depict diet trends in a migrating predator that seasonally uses different geographic locations.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2018

A decade of remotely sensed observations highlight complex processes linked to coastal permafrost bluff erosion in the Arctic

Eroding permafrost coasts are indicators and integrators of changes in the Arctic System as they are susceptible to the combined effects of declining sea ice extent, increases in open water duration, more frequent and impactful storms, sea-level rise, and warming permafrost. However, few observation sites in the Arctic have yet to link decadal-scale erosion rates with changing environmental conditions due to temporal data gaps. This study increases the temporal fidelity of coastal permafrost bluff observations using near-annual high spatial resolution (<1 m) satellite imagery acquired between 2008 and 2017 for a 9-km segment of coastline at Drew Point, Beaufort Sea coast, Alaska. Our results show that mean annual erosion for the 2007 to 2016 decade was 17.2 m yr-1, which is 2.5 times faster than historic rates, indicating that bluff erosion at this site is likely responding to changes in the Arctic System. In spite of a sustained increase in decadal-scale mean annual erosion rates, mean open water season erosion varied from 6.7 m yr-1 in 2010 to more than 22.0 m yr-1 in 2007, 2012, and 2016. This variability provided a range of coastal responses through which we explored the different roles of potential environmental drivers. The lack of significant correlations between mean open water season erosion and the environmental variables compiled in this study indicates that we may not be adequately capturing the environmental forcing factors, that the system is conditioned by long-term transient effects or extreme weather events rather than annual variability, or that other not yet considered factors may be responsible for the increased erosion occurring at Drew Point. Our results highlight an increase in erosion at Drew Point in the 21st century as well as the complexities associated with unraveling the factors responsible for changing coastal permafrost bluffs in the Arctic.

Alaska↗

USGS2023

Wind-modulated groundwater discharge along a microtidal Arctic coastline

Groundwater discharge transports dissolved constituents to the ocean, affecting coastal carbon budgets and water quality. However, the magnitude and mechanisms of groundwater exchange along rapidly transitioning Arctic coastlines are largely unknown due to limited observations. Here, using first-of-its-kind coastal Arctic groundwater timeseries data, we evaluate the magnitude and drivers of groundwater discharge to Alaska's Beaufort Sea coast. Darcy flux calculations reveal temporally variable groundwater fluxes, ranging from −6.5 cm d −1 (recharge) to 14.1 cm d −1 (discharge), with fluctuations in groundwater discharge or aquifer recharge over diurnal and multiday timescales during the open-water season. The average flux during the monitoring period of 4.9 cm d −1 is in line with previous estimates, but the maximum discharge exceeds previous estimates by over an order-of-magnitude. While the diurnal fluctuations are small due to the microtidal conditions, multiday variability is large and drives sustained periods of aquifer recharge and groundwater discharge. Results show that wind-driven lagoon water level changes are the dominant mechanism of fluctuations in land–sea hydraulic head gradients and, in turn, groundwater discharge. Given the microtidal conditions, low topographic relief, and limited rainfall along the Beaufort Sea coast, we identify wind as an important forcing mechanism of coastal groundwater discharge and aquifer recharge with implications for nearshore biogeochemistry. This study provides insights into groundwater flux dynamics along this coastline over time and highlights an oft overlooked discharge and circulation mechanism with implications towards refining solute export estimates to coastal Arctic waters.

Alaska↗

USGS2002

Space use, migratory connectivity, and population segregation among Willets breeding in the western Great Basin

Western Willets ( Catoptrophorus semipalmatus inornatus ) were banded (n = 146 breeding adults and chicks) and radio-marked (n = 68 adults) at three western Great Basin wetland complexes to determine inter- and intraseasonal space use and movement patterns (primarily in 1998 and 1999). Birds were then tracked to overwintering sites where migratory connectivity and local movements were documented. Willets arrived synchronously at breeding sites during mid-April and spent less than 12 weeks in the Great Basin. There were no movements to other sites in the Great Basin during the breeding or postbreeding season. However, most breeding birds moved locally on a daily basis from upland nest sites to wetland foraging sites. The mean distance breeding birds were detected from nests did not differ between sexes or between members of a pair, although these distances were greater among postbreeding than breeding birds. Home-range estimates did not differ significantly between paired males and females during breeding or postbreeding. However, female home ranges were larger following breeding than during breeding. Shortly after chicks fledged, adult Willets left the Great Basin for locations primarily at coastal and estuarine sites in the San Francisco Bay area. Limited data revealed little among-site movements once Willets arrived at the coast, and birds appeared to be site faithful in subsequent winters. Winter sites of western Great Basin Willets differed from those used by birds from other areas in the subspecies' range, suggesting another subspecies or distinct population segment may exist. This study illustrates the importance of understanding movements and space use throughout the annual cycle in conservation planning.

California, Oregon↗

USGS2025

Refinements to the attenuated propagation of local earthquake shaking (APPLES) ground-motion-based earthquake early warning algorithm

We refined the Attenuated ProPagation of Local Earthquake Shaking (APPLES) ground-motion-based earthquake early warning (EEW) approach, and directly compare APPLES performance with that of the source-characterization-based U.S. ShakeAlert EEW system for a suite of historical earthquakes in the U.S. West Coast and Japan. APPLES is an extension of the Propagation of Local Undamped Motion (PLUM) algorithm in which observed shaking intensity at seismic stations is used to forward-predict intensity distributions to surrounding areas using an attenuation model derived from an intensity prediction equation. We test new configuration options within APPLES, such as using the second highest estimated ground motion rather than the maximum, to better match median ground-motion observations and reduce alerts for small magnitude earthquakes, both of which are key alerting priorities within ShakeAlert. We evaluate these configurations alongside ShakeAlert by comparing the ground-motion estimation accuracy and available warning times relative to station observations and ShakeMap distributions. Our preferred APPLES configuration produces accurate ground-motion estimates and corresponds better with median observations compared to ShakeAlert’s estimates. This preferred configuration substantially reduces alert issuance for M < 5.0 earthquakes compared to the previous APPLES configuration, and alert-release criteria can further restrict alerts to primarily M ≥ 5.5 earthquakes without requiring magnitude estimation. Prioritizing matching median-observed ground motions may reduce APPLES warning times compared to configurations that were tuned to avoid missed alerts (such as those that use the maximum estimated ground motions), which can lead to shorter warning times compared to ShakeAlert for the same alert threshold. However, station-based warning time assessments demonstrate that APPLES can outperform ShakeAlert for high target thresholds. APPLES is a simple, independent EEW approach that may improve the robustness of EEW for the West Coast of the U.S.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2021

Range-wide population genetic analysis of Seaside Sparrows (Ammospiza maritima) supports at least five distinct population segments that do not align with current subspecies descriptions

As an obligate salt marsh species, Seaside Sparrows ( Ammospiza maritima ) are vulnerable to numerous threats including climate change, coastal erosion, sea-level rise, and both natural and anthropogenic disasters. Of the 9 recognized subspecies, 2 are extinct and 1 is endangered. Previous genetic analyses of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) and microsatellite loci showed that current taxonomy does not accurately reflect underlying genetic diversity, with possible consequences for the distribution of conservation resources. To further inform Seaside Sparrow management, we comprehensively describe genetic structure among 24 range-wide sampling locations that include all extant subspecies. We inferred population structure from several thousand single-nucleotide polymorphisms collected from 272 individuals via restriction-site-associated DNA sequencing. Principal components, pairwise F ST values, and clustering approaches suggest that Seaside Sparrows on the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts are distinct and consist of at least 5 genetic clusters: 1 in southern Texas, 1 ranging from Aransas County, Texas, to Mississippi; 1 in western Florida; and 2 or 3 genetic groups intermixed along a gradient on the Atlantic Coast. These genetic clusters are not consistent with current subspecies taxonomy and could be used as distinct population segments (DPSs) to inform the most efficient allocation of resources to Seaside Sparrow conservation. Our results regarding the endangered subspecies, A. m. mirabilis , from southern Florida are inconclusive due to low sample size, but indicate that it is distinct and may represent a sixth DPS. Based on our genetic results, we recommend additional song and morphometric analyses in western Florida and a closer study of the boundary between the breeding distributions of A. m. maritima and A. m. macgillivraii to ensure the proper identification of DPSs.

Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico↗

USGS2023

Rapid population decline in McKay's Bunting, an Alaskan endemic, highlights the species’ current status relative to international standards for vulnerable species

The McKay’s Bunting ( Plectrophenax hyperboreus ) is endemic to Alaska, breeds solely on the remote and uninhabited St. Matthew and Hall islands (332 km 2 ) in the central Bering Sea, and is designated as a species of high conservation concern due to its small population size and restricted range. A previous hypothesized population estimate (~2,800—6,000 individuals) was greatly increased (~31,200 individuals) after systematic surveys of the species’ entire breeding range in 2003, establishing McKay’s Bunting as one of the rarest passerines in North America. In 2018, we replicated the 2003 surveys and used density surface models to estimate breeding season densities, distributions, and population change over the intervening time period. Our results indicate that the McKay's Bunting population declined by 38% (95% CI: 27—48%) from ~31,560 to 19,481 individuals since 2003. Spatial model predictions showed no areas with an increase of birds on either St. Matthew or Hall islands but revealed declines across 13% (42 km 2 ) of St. Matthew Island. Declines disproportionately occurred both in marginal habitats with reduced rocky nesting substrate and in high-density hotspots along the coast of St. Matthew Island. The total area occupied by breeding adults decreased by 8%, and high-density hotspots shifted inland from the coast of St. Matthew Island to higher elevations on both islands, the latter potentially responses to exceptionally warm weather and reduced spring snow cover in 2018. Additionally, we observed low numbers of predators and interspecific competitors in 2018 suggesting these did not cause the decline. Our findings indicate that McKay’s Bunting meets international standards for elevating its conservation status from Least Concern to Endangered based on the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List of Threatened Species ranking criteria. Additional population monitoring and studies to identify the causal mechanisms of the recent population decline of this rare species could assist future population assessments.

Alaska↗

USGS1999

Utility of EXAFS in characterization and speciation of mercury-bearing mine wastes

Extensive mining of large mercury deposits located in the California Coast Range has resulted in mercury contamination of both the local environment and water supplies. The solubility, dispersal, and ultimate fate of mercury are all affected by its chemical speciation, which can be most readily determined in a direct fashion using EXAFS spectroscopy. EXAFS spectra of mine wastes collected from several mercury mines in the California Coast Range with mercury concentrations ranging from 230 to 1060 mg/kg (ppm) have been analyzed using a spectral database of mercury minerals and sorbed mercury complexes. While some calcines have been found to consist almost exclusively of mercuric sulfide, HgS, others contain additional, more soluble mercury phases, indicating a greater potential for the release of mercury into solution. This experimental approach can provide a quantitative measurement of the mercury compounds present and may serve as an indicator of the bioavailability and toxicity levels of mercury mine wastes.

Journal of Synchrotron Radiation↗

USGS2016

Combining citizen science species distribution models and stable isotopes reveals migratory connectivity in the secretive Virginia rail

Stable hydrogen isotope (δD) methods for tracking animal movement are widely used yet often produce low resolution assignments. Incorporating prior knowledge of abundance, distribution or movement patterns can ameliorate this limitation, but data are lacking for most species. We demonstrate how observations reported by citizen scientists can be used to develop robust estimates of species distributions and to constrain δD assignments. We developed a Bayesian framework to refine isotopic estimates of migrant animal origins conditional on species distribution models constructed from citizen scientist observations. To illustrate this approach, we analysed the migratory connectivity of the Virginia rail Rallus limicola , a secretive and declining migratory game bird in North America. Citizen science observations enabled both estimation of sampling bias and construction of bias-corrected species distribution models. Conditioning δD assignments on these species distribution models yielded comparably high-resolution assignments. Most Virginia rails wintering across five Gulf Coast sites spent the previous summer near the Great Lakes, although a considerable minority originated from the Chesapeake Bay watershed or Prairie Pothole region of North Dakota. Conversely, the majority of migrating Virginia rails from a site in the Great Lakes most likely spent the previous winter on the Gulf Coast between Texas and Louisiana. Synthesis and applications . In this analysis, Virginia rail migratory connectivity does not fully correspond to the administrative flyways used to manage migratory birds. This example demonstrates that with the increasing availability of citizen science data to create species distribution models, our framework can produce high-resolution estimates of migratory connectivity for many animals, including cryptic species. Empirical evidence of links between seasonal habitats will help enable effective habitat management, hunting quotas and population monitoring and also highlight critical knowledge gaps.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2019

The application of oyster reefs in shoreline protection: Are we over‐engineering for an ecosystem engineer?

Oyster reef living shorelines have been proposed as an effective alternative to traditional coastal defence structures (e.g. bulkheads, breakwaters), with the benefit that they may keep pace with sea‐level rise and provide co‐benefits, such as habitat provision. However, there remains uncertainty about the effectiveness of shoreline protection provided by oyster reefs, which limits their broader application. We draw evidence from studies along the east and gulf coasts of the United States, where much research and implementation of oyster reef restoration has occurred, to better define the existing gaps in our understanding of the use of restored oyster reefs for shoreline protection. We find potential disconnects between ecological and engineering functions of reefs. In response, we outline how engineering and ecological principles are used in the design of oyster reef living shorelines and highlight knowledge gaps where an integration of these disciplines will lead to their more effective application. Synthesis and applications . This work highlights the necessary steps to advance the application of oyster reef living shorelines. Importantly, future research should focus on appropriate designs and conditions needed for these structures to effectively protect our coasts from erosion, while supporting a sustainable oyster population, thereby providing actionable nature‐based alternatives for coastal defence to diverse end‐users.

East Coast of Continental United States↗

USGS2013

Mangrove expansion and saltmarsh decline at mangrove poleward limits

Mangroves are species of halophytic intertidal trees and shrubs derived from tropical genera and are likely delimited in latitudinal range by varying sensitivity to cold. There is now sufficient evidence that mangrove species have proliferated at or near their poleward limits on at least five continents over the past half century, at the expense of salt marsh. Avicennia is the most cold-tolerant genus worldwide, and is the subject of most of the observed changes. Avicennia germinans has extended in range along the US Atlantic coast and expanded into salt marsh as a consequence of lower frost frequency and intensity in the southern USA. The genus has also expanded into salt marsh at its southern limit in Peru, and on the Pacific coast of Mexico. Mangroves of several species have expanded in extent and replaced salt marsh where protected within mangrove reserves in Guangdong Province. In south-eastern Australia, the expansion of Avicennia marina into salt marshes is now well documented, and Rhizophora stylosa has extended its range southward, while showing strong population growth within estuaries along its southern limits in northern New South Wales. Avicennia marina has extended its range southwards in South Africa. The changes are consistent with the pole-ward extension of temperature thresholds co-incident with sea-level rise, although the specific mechanism of range extension might be complicated by limitations on dispersal or other factors. The shift from salt marsh to mangrove dominance on subtropical and temperate shorelines has important implications for ecological structure, function, and global change adaptation.

Global Ecology and Biogeography↗

USGS2015

Projected carbon stocks in the conterminous USA with land use and variable fire regimes

The dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) MC2 was run over the conterminous USA at 30 arc sec (~800 m) to simulate the impacts of nine climate futures generated by 3GCMs (CSIRO, MIROC and CGCM3) using 3 emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1) in the context of the LandCarbon national carbon sequestration assessment. It first simulated potential vegetation dynamics from coast to coast assuming no human impacts and naturally occurring wildfires. A moderate effect of increased atmospheric CO 2 on water use efficiency and growth enhanced carbon sequestration but did not greatly influence woody encroachment. The wildfires maintained prairie‐forest ecotones in the Great Plains. With simulated fire suppression, the number and impacts of wildfires was reduced as only catastrophic fires were allowed to escape. This greatly increased the expansion of forests and woodlands across the western USA and some of the ecotones disappeared. However, when fires did occur, their impacts (both extent and biomass consumed) were very large. We also evaluated the relative influence of human land use including forest and crop harvest by running the DGVM with land use (and fire suppression) and simple land management rules. From 2041 through 2060, carbon stocks (live biomass, soil and dead biomass) of US terrestrial ecosystems varied between 155 and 162 Pg C across the three emission scenarios when potential natural vegetation was simulated. With land use, periodic harvest of croplands and timberlands as well as the prevention of woody expansion across the West reduced carbon stocks to a range of 122–126 Pg C, while effective fire suppression reduced fire emissions by about 50%. Despite the simplicity of our approach, the differences between the size of the carbon stocks confirm other reports of the importance of land use on the carbon cycle over climate change.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2018

Sensitivity of mangrove range limits to climate variability

Aim Correlative distribution models have been used to identify potential climatic controls of mangrove range limits, but there is still uncertainty about the relative importance of these factors across different regions. To provide insights into the strength of climatic control of different mangrove range limits, we tested whether temporal variability in mangrove abundance increases near range limits and whether this variability is correlated with climatic factors thought to control large‐scale mangrove distributions. Location North and South America. Time period 1984–2011. Major taxa studied Avicennia germinans , Avicennia schuaeriana , Rhizophora mangle , Laguncularia racemosa . Methods We characterized temporal variability in the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) at mangrove range limits using Landsat satellite imagery collected between 1984–2011. We characterized greening trends at each range limit, examined variability in EVI along latitudinal gradients near each range limit, and assessed correlations between changes in EVI and temperature and precipitation. Results Spatial variability in mean EVI was generally correlated with temperature and precipitation, but the relationships were region specific. Greening trends were most pronounced at range limits in eastern North America. In these regions variability in EVI increased toward the range limit and was sensitive to climatic factors. In contrast, EVI at range limits on the Pacific coast of North America and both coasts of South America was relatively stable and less sensitive to climatic variability. Main conclusions Our results suggest that range limits in eastern North America are strongly controlled by climate factors. Mangrove expansion in response to future warming is expected to be rapid in regions that are highly sensitive to climate variability (e.g. eastern North America), but the response in other range limits (e.g. South America) is likely to be more complex and modulated by additional factors such as dispersal limitation, habitat constraints, and/or changing climatic means rather than just extremes.

Global Ecology and Biogeography↗