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Nest microclimate and limits to egg viability explain avian life-history variation across latitudinal gradients

Variation in life-history strategies is central to our understanding of population dynamics and how organisms adapt to their environments. Yet, we lack consensus regarding the ecological processes that drive variation in traits related to reproduction and survival. For example, we still do not understand the cause of two widespread inter- and intraspecific patterns: 1) the ubiquitous positive association between avian clutch size and latitude, and 2) variation in the extent of asynchronous hatching of eggs within a single clutch. Well-known hypotheses to explain each pattern have largely focused on biotic processes related to food availability and predation risk. However, local adaptation to maintain egg viability could explain both patterns with a single abiotic mechanism. The egg viability hypothesis was proposed to explain the cause of asynchronous hatching and suggests that asynchronous hatching results from early incubation onset in response to unfavorable nest microclimatic conditions, which otherwise reduce egg viability, and that early incubation onset may energetically constrain clutch size. We measured intraspecific variation in five functionally-linked life-history traits of Burrowing Owls at five study sites spanning a 1400-km latitudinal transect in western North America: clutch size, the timing of incubation onset, the degree of hatching asynchrony, the probability of hatching failure, and nestling survival. We found that most traits varied clinally with latitude, but all the traits were more strongly associated with individual nest microclimates than with latitude, and all varied with nest microclimate in the direction predicted by the egg viability hypothesis. Furthermore, incubation began earlier, hatching asynchrony increased, and clutch size declined across the breeding season. These results suggest that nest microclimate drives an important life-history tradeoff and that thermal gradients are often sufficient to account for observed biogeographic and seasonal patterns in life-history strategies. Furthermore, our results reveal a potentially important indirect mechanism by which reproductive success and recruitment could be affected by climate change.

Ecology↗

Application of the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin in the southeastern United States

A hydrologic model of the Apalachicola–Chattahoochee–Flint River Basin (ACFB) has been developed as part of a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center effort to provide integrated science that helps resource managers understand the effect of climate change on a range of ecosystem responses. The hydrologic model was developed as part of the Southeast Regional Assessment Project using the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), a deterministic, distributed-parameter, process-based system that simulates the effects of precipitation, temperature, and land use on basin hydrology. The ACFB PRMS model simulates streamflow throughout the approximately 50,700 square-kilometer basin on a daily time step for the period 1950–99 using gridded climate forcings of air temperature and precipitation, and parameters derived from spatial data layers of altitude, land cover, soils, surficial geology, depression storage (small water bodies), and data from 56 USGS streamgages. Measured streamflow data from 35 of the 56 USGS streamgages were used to calibrate and evaluate simulated basin streamflow; the remaining gage locations were used for model delineation only. The model matched measured daily streamflow at 31 of the 35 calibration gages with Nash-Sutcliffe Model Efficiency Index (NS) greater than 0.6. Streamflow data for some calibration gages were augmented for regulation and water use effects to represent more natural flow volumes. Time-static parameters describing land cover limited the ability of the simulation to match historical runoff in the more developed subbasins. Overall, the PRMS simulation of the ACFB provides a good representation of basin hydrology on annual and monthly time steps. Calibration subbasins were analyzed by separating the 35 subbasins into five classes based on physiography, land use, and stream type (tributary or mainstem). The lowest NS values were rarely below 0.6, whereas the median NS for all five classes was within 0.74 to 0.96 for annual mean streamflow, 0.89 to 0.98 for mean monthly streamflow, and 0.82 to 0.98 for monthly mean streamflow. The median bias for all five classes was within –4.3 to 0.8 percent for annual mean streamflow, –6.3 to 0.5 percent for mean monthly streamflow, and –9.3 to 1.3 percent for monthly mean streamflow. The NS results combined with the percent bias results indicated a good to very good streamflow volume simulation for all subbasins. This simulation of the ACFB provides a foundation for future modeling and interpretive studies. Streamflow and other components of the hydrologic cycle simulated by PRMS can be used to inform other types of simulations; water-temperature, hydrodynamic, and ecosystem-dynamics simulations are three examples. In addition, possible future hydrologic conditions could be studied using this model in combination with land cover projections and downscaled general circulation model results.

Alabama, Florida, Georgia↗

Comparison of water consumption in two riparian vegetation communities along the central Platte River, Nebraska, 2008–09 and 2011

The Platte River is a vital natural resource for the people, plants, and animals of Nebraska. A recent study quantified water use by riparian woodlands along central reaches of the Platte River, Nebraska, finding that water use was mainly regulated below maximum predicted levels. A comparative study was launched through a cooperative partnership between the U.S. Geological Survey, the Central Platte Natural Resources District, the Nebraska Department of Natural Resources, and the Nebraska Environmental Trust to compare water use of a riparian woodland with that of a grazed riparian grassland along the central Platte River. This report describes the results of the 3-year study by the U.S. Geological Survey to measure the evapotranspiration (ET) rates in the two riparian vegetation communities. Evapotranspiration was measured during 2008–09 and 2011 using the eddy-covariance method at a riparian woodland near Odessa, hereinafter referred to as the “woodland site,” and a riparian grassland pasture near Elm Creek, hereinafter referred to as the “grassland site.” Overall, annual ET totals at the grassland site were 90 percent of the annual ET measured at the woodland site, with averages of 653 millimeters (mm) and 726 mm, respectively. Evapotranspiration rates were similar at the grassland site and the woodland site during the spring and fall seasons, but at the woodland site ET rates were higher than those of the grassland site during the peak-growth summer months of June through August. These seasonal differences and the slightly lower ET rates at the grassland site were likely the result of differing plant communities, disturbance effects related to grazing and flooding, and climatic differences between the sites. The annual water balance was calculated for each site and indicated that the predominant factors in the water balance at both sites were ET and precipitation. Annual precipitation for the study period ranged from near to above the normal precipitation of 640 mm. Substantial precipitation fell in May and October 2008 that caused flooding along the Platte River in May of this especially wet year. There was a deficit in precipitation compared to ET at both sites in 2009 and 2011, leading to a net groundwater use of greater than 140 mm per year at the woodland site and greater than 55 mm per year at the grassland site. This indicates that the net annual groundwater use or recharge depends predominately upon the relation between ET and precipitation in these riparian areas with shallow soil layers above the groundwater table. Prior research at the woodland site provided four additional annual water balances dating back to 2002 for comparison with the study period at the woodland site. Perhaps most striking in this comparison was the 25-percent increase in annual ET for 2008–09 and 2011 despite precipitation totals and potential ET rates that were within the range of those measured in 2002–05. As a result, the water balance indicates that groundwater was discharged 2 of the 3 years of the study. This likely was caused by higher groundwater levels and a healthier plant community in 2008–09 and 2011 relative to the drought-affected years of 2002–05. As a result of these changes, the crop coefficients developed for riparian woodlands during the prior research underestimated 2008–09 and 2011 annual ET rates by an average of 35 percent. Though new crop coefficients were developed by this study, the importance of soil-moisture stress and plant community successional dynamics need to be considered when applying these coefficients at other riparian sites or into the future. Nonetheless, their development and the data on which they are based may provide improved understanding of water consumption by riparian grasslands and riparian woodlands along the central Platte River.

Nebraska↗

The future of coastal monitoring through satellite remote sensing

Satellite remote sensing is transforming coastal science from a “data-poor” field into a “data-rich” field. Sandy beaches are dynamic landscapes that change in response to long-term pressures, short-term pulses, and anthropogenic interventions. Until recently, the rate and breadth of beach change have outpaced our ability to monitor those changes, due to the spatiotemporal limitations of our observational capacity. Over the past several decades, only a handful of beaches worldwide have been regularly monitored with accurate yet expensive in situ surveys. The long-term coastal-change data of these few well-monitored beaches have led to in-depth understanding of many site-specific coastal processes. However, because the best-monitored beaches are not representative of all beaches, much remains unknown about the processes and fate of the other >99% of unmonitored beaches worldwide. The fleet of Earth-observing satellites has enabled multiscale monitoring of beaches, for the very first time, by providing imagery with global coverage and up to daily frequency. The long-standing and ever-expanding archive of satellite imagery will enable coastal scientists to investigate coastal change at sites vulnerable to future sea-level rise, that is, (almost) everywhere. In the past decade, our capability to observe coastal change from space has grown substantially with computing and algorithmic power. Yet, further advances are needed in automating monitoring using machine learning, deep learning, and computer vision to fully leverage this massive treasure trove of data. Extensive monitoring and investigation of the causes and effects of coastal change at the requisite spatiotemporal scales will provide coastal managers with additional, valuable information to evaluate problems and solutions, addressing the potential for widespread beach loss due to accelerated sea-level rise, development, and reduced sediment supply. Monitoring from Earth-observing satellites is currently the only means of providing seamless data with high spatiotemporal resolution at the global scale of the impending impacts of climate change on coastal systems.

Cambridge Prisms: Coastal Futures↗

Wood decay in desert riverine environments

Floodplain forests and the woody debris they produce are major components of riverine ecosystems in many arid and semiarid regions (drylands). We monitored breakdown and nitrogen dynamics in wood and bark from a native riparian tree, Fremont cottonwood ( Populus deltoides subsp. wislizeni ), along four North American desert streams. We placed locally-obtained, fresh, coarse material [disks or cylinders (∼500–2000 cm 3 )] along two cold-desert and two warm-desert rivers in the Colorado River Basin. Material was placed in both floodplain and aquatic environments, and left in situ for up to 12 years. We tested the hypothesis that breakdown would be fastest in relatively warm and moist aerobic environments by comparing the time required for 50% loss of initial ash-free dry matter ( T 50 ) calculated using exponential decay models incorporating a lag term. In cold-desert sites (Green and Yampa rivers, Colorado), disks of wood with bark attached exposed for up to 12 years in locations rarely inundated lost mass at a slower rate ( T 50 = 34 yr) than in locations inundated during most spring floods ( T 50 = 12 yr). At the latter locations, bark alone loss mass at a rate initially similar to whole disks ( T 50 = 13 yr), but which subsequently slowed. In warm-desert sites monitored for 3 years, cylinders of wood with bark removed lost mass very slowly ( T 50 = 60 yr) at a location never inundated (Bill Williams River, Arizona), whereas decay rate varied among aquatic locations ( T 50 = 20 yr in Bill Williams River; T 50 = 3 yr in Las Vegas Wash, an effluent-dominated stream warmed by treated wastewater inflows). Invertebrates had a minor role in wood breakdown except at in-stream locations in Las Vegas Wash. The presence and form of change in nitrogen content during exposure varied among riverine environments. Our results suggest woody debris breakdown in desert riverine ecosystems is primarily a microbial process with rates determined by landscape position, local weather, and especially the regional climate through its effect on the flow regime. The increased warmth and aridity expected to accompany climate change in the North American southwest will likely retard the already slow wood decay process on naturally functioning desert river floodplains. Our results have implications for designing environmental flows to manage floodplain forest wood budgets, carbon storage, and nutrient cycling along regulated dryland rivers.

Arizona, Colorado, Nevada↗

Survival and reproduction in Arctic caribou are associated with summer forage and insect harassment

Investigators have speculated that the climate-driven “greening of the Arctic” may benefit barren-ground caribou populations, but paradoxically many populations have declined in recent years. This pattern has raised concerns about the influence of summer habitat conditions on caribou demographic rates, and how populations may be impacted in the future. The short Arctic summer provides caribou with important forage resources but is also the time they are exposed to intense harassment by insects, factors which are both being altered by longer, warmer growing seasons. To better understand the effects of summer forage and insect activity on Arctic caribou demographic rates, we investigated the influence of estimated forage biomass, digestible energy (DE), digestible nitrogen (DN), and mosquito activity on the reproductive success and survival of adult females in the Central Arctic Herd on the North Slope of Alaska. We tested the hypotheses that greater early summer DN would increase subsequent reproduction (parturition and late June calving success) while greater biomass and DE would increase adult survival (September–May), and that elevated mosquito activity would reduce both demographic rates. Because the period when abundant forage DN is limited and overlaps with the period of mosquito harassment, we also expected years with low DN and high harassment to synergistically reduce caribou reproductive success. Examining these relationships at the individual-level, using GPS-collared females, and at the population-level, using long-term monitoring data, we generally found support for our expectations. Greater early summer DN was associated with increased subsequent calving success, while greater summer biomass was associated with increased adult survival. Mosquito activity was associated with reductions in adult female parturition, late June calving success, and survival, and in years with low DN, had compounding effects on subsequent late June calving success. Our findings indicate that summer nutrition and mosquito activity collectively influence the demographic rates of Arctic caribou, and may impact the dynamics of populations in the future under changing environmental conditions.

Alaska↗

Taking the pulse of snowmelt: in situ sensors reveal seasonal, event and diurnal patterns of nitrate and dissolved organic matter variability in an upland forest stream

Highly resolved time series data are useful to accurately identify the timing, rate, and magnitude of solute transport in streams during hydrologically dynamic periods such as snowmelt. We used in situ optical sensors for nitrate (NO3 - ) and chromophoric dissolved organic matter fluorescence (FDOM) to measure surface water concentrations at 30 min intervals over the snowmelt period (March 21–May 13, 2009) at a 40.5 hectare forested watershed at Sleepers River, Vermont. We also collected discrete samples for laboratory absorbance and fluorescence as well as δ 18 O–NO3 - isotopes to help interpret the drivers of variable NO3 - and FDOM concentrations measured in situ. In situ data revealed seasonal, event and diurnal patterns associated with hydrological and biogeochemical processes regulating stream NO3 - and FDOM concentrations. An observed decrease in NO3 - concentrations after peak snowmelt runoff and muted response to spring rainfall was consistent with the flushing of a limited supply of NO3 - (mainly from nitrification) from source areas in surficial soils. Stream FDOM concentrations were coupled with flow throughout the study period, suggesting a strong hydrologic control on DOM concentrations in the stream. However, higher FDOM concentrations per unit streamflow after snowmelt likely reflected a greater hydraulic connectivity of the stream to leachable DOM sources in upland soils. We also observed diurnal NO3 - variability of 1–2 μmol l -1 after snowpack ablation, presumably due to in-stream uptake prior to leafout. A comparison of NO3 - and dissolved organic carbon yields (DOC, measured by FDOM proxy) calculated from weekly discrete samples and in situ data sub-sampled daily resulted in small to moderate differences over the entire study period (-4 to 1% for NO3 - and -3 to -14% for DOC), but resulted in much larger differences for daily yields (-66 to +27% for NO3 - and -88 to +47% for DOC, respectively). Despite challenges inherent in in situ sensor deployments in harsh seasonal conditions, these data provide important insights into processes controlling NO3 - and FDOM in streams, and will be critical for evaluating the effects of climate change on snowmelt delivery to downstream ecosystems.

Vermont↗

Accounting for temporal variability of streamflow in estimates of travel time

Retention, processing, and transport of solutes and particulates in stream corridors are influenced by the travel time of streamflow through stream channels, which varies dynamically with discharge. The effects of streamflow variability across sites and over time cannot be addressed by time-averaged models if parameters are based solely on the characteristics of mean streamflow. We develop methods to account for the effects of streamflow variability on travel time and compare our estimates to flow-weighted (“effective”) travel time at 100 streams in the southeastern United States. Velocity time series were generated for each stream from multiple-year (median 15.5 years), high-frequency (15 min interval) records of instantaneous streamflow and field measurements of velocity and inverted to produce time series of specific travel time [T/L]. The effective travel times for streams are 60–90% of the specific travel time of mean streamflow because a large fraction of the total streamflow volume is discharged during higher flows with higher velocities. We find that adjusting the specific travel time of mean streamflow at a site by a factor of 0.81 generally accounts for the effect of a skewed streamflow distribution, but at-site estimates of the coefficient of variation of streamflow are necessary to resolve differences in streamflow variability between streams or changes in variability over time. For example, the effective travel time of urban streams is less than the effective travel of forested streams in the southeastern United States as a result of increased streamflow variability in urban streams. Effective travel time accounts for both the variation in velocity with streamflow and the large fraction of streamflow discharged during high flows in most streams and provides time-averaged models with limited capability to account for effects of streamflow variability that otherwise they lack. This capability is needed for continental-scale modeling where streamflow variability is not uniform because of heterogeneous surficial geology, hydro-climatology, and vegetation and for applications where streamflow variability is not stationary as a response to climate change or hydrologic alteration.

Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina, Virginia, South ↗

Natural resource condition assessment: Channel Islands National Park

The Natural Resource Condition Assessment (NRCA) Program aims to provide documentation about the current conditions of important Park natural resources through a spatially explicit, multidisciplinary synthesis of existing scientific data and knowledge. Findings from the NRCA will help Channel Islands National Park (CINP) managers to develop near-term management priorities. The central objectives of this assessment were to evaluate the current conditions and trends of key Park resources, identify important knowledge gaps, and determine key stressors and threats. Because a recent report provided an assessment of marine resources (Engle 2006), which constitute 50% of the park, this NRCA focused on terrestrial resources. For this NRCA, CINP resource managers identified that the greatest Park need was to know whether or not vegetation (primarily woody vegetation) is recovering on the Channel Islands and how this may be influencing recovery of the native terrestrial vertebrates. To address this, the CINP NRCA team evaluated the condition of island vegetation and vertebrate communities using both: 1) already available, summarized information from reports, theses, and journal articles and 2) new analyses of recently available, existing data collected on the islands. Descriptions of specific methods used to analyze available data by the NRCA team are provided within the assessment sections in Chapter 4 of this report. The Team used the Vital Signs indicators as identified by Fancy et al. (2009) for monitoring the condition of Natural Resources in U.S. National Parks. Using this framework, the focal study resource components were the five CINP islands, because these are the bio-geophysical resources of greatest interest to the CINP. Each of the islands has its own unique history of human impacts, ecological conditions, restoration efforts, and natural resource monitoring. The Team evaluated island scrub recovery by assessing changes over time in two metrics: 1) vegetation community structure (species composition, cover, and spatial extent), and 2) vertebrate abundance, relative to the reference condition of each island. The reference conditions for this NRCA were the particular island’s ecological state prior to European settlement or ranching, which represent the ecological state to which the NPS desires the park return. For each metric, the Team determined the Reference Conditions/Values, Current Condition, Trend, and Recovery Potential (based on a review of the literature and from the NRCA team’s analysis of newly available data), Threats and Stressors, Data Gaps, Overall Condition. A qualitative statement of overall current condition was created for each metric, after all data and literature relevant to the measures (i.e., vegetation and vertebrates) of each resource component (i.e., island) were reviewed and evaluated. All information gathered for this NRCA is available and managed by CINP, so that the compilation of resources would be available not only for the assessment team, but will be provided for future Park reference. Chapter 1 of this NRCA provides a descriptive background of NRCAs. Chapter 2 provides Park-wide natural resource background information, while Chapter 3 describes the overall methodological approach used in this assessment. Chapter 4 provides a detailed assessment of each island’s condition, which is then summarized Park-wide and for each island in Chapter 5. Based on both vegetation recovery and vertebrate population abundances, our assessment found Santa Cruz Island (SCI), Santa Rosa Island (SRI), San Miguel Island (SMI), and Anacapa Island (AI) to be, overall, in moderate condition and slowly recovering following the removal of non-native herbivores. The condition of Santa Barbara Island (SBI) is poor and remains in a state that is not likely to improve without assisted recovery by the Park. All islands have exhibited some level of native vegetation recovery, with most of the observed natural recovery occurring on SCI, SRI, SMI, and AI; very little recovery has occurred at present on SBI. Vegetation recovery is uneven across each island and largely limited to mesic areas, such as north-facing slopes. Areas that will likely require some assisted recovery efforts are those that are: at risk of erosion, isolated, lacking native seed banks, and plagued with high competition of non-native grasses and other invasives. Some plant communities, such as exposed upland vegetation on SRI, also have lower natural recovery potential and will likely require assisted recovery. The overall condition of the Park’s terrestrial island vertebrate species generally appears to be good and improving, with high potential for further recovery to reach pre-ranching era reference conditions. This is particularly true for vertebrates on SCI, SRI, and SMI. Although there are limited data for AI, the data that are available suggest that vertebrates on that island are in good condition and improving as well. However, the condition of SBI vertebrates is only moderate, with natural recovery potential being low, with many landbird species’ populations currently declining, extinct, or not improving. An overarching theme across the Park’s terrestrial island vertebrate populations is that many of them are in good condition because the particular animals are habitat generalists, so their population dynamics are not strongly tied to habitat conditions. However, those landbirds associated with riparian vegetation are not showing signs of recovery across the Park islands, and riparian areas appear to be one of the habitats with limited natural recovery potential on the islands. Overwhelmingly, the most critical data gap that emerged from our analysis was the lack of current vegetation maps for most of the islands (AI, SCI, SRI, SMI). The lack of this information made it difficult to assess spatial changes in island vegetation over time, and to relate those changes to observed changes in vertebrate species abundances. Therefore, we were limited in our spatial assessment of vegetation recovery for AI, SCI, SRI, and SMI, and were only able to relate the current vegetation with island landbird analysis for SBI. Another common theme across islands was the lack of information on best techniques for shrub reintroduction and recovery, and the success of invasive species removal and re-vegetation efforts. Abundance, distribution, and habitat affinities of reptiles and amphibians are poorly known for AI, SCI, SRI, and SMI, making it difficult to assess their population condition and trends, and their potential responses to shrub recovery. Mammal and landbird populations are reasonably well-sampled across most of the islands, but data are lacking for most vertebrates from AI, especially West and Middle AI where no vertebrate sampling occurs. The population status, cause of declines, and recovery needs are lacking for several landbird species across multiple islands, including loggerhead shrikes ( Lanius ludovicianus ssp.) on SCI and SRI, and Santa Cruz Island rufous crowned sparrows ( Aimophila ruficeps obscura ) on AI. Additionally, island song sparrows ( Melospiza melodia graminea ) remain extirpated on SBI and data are needed for assessing their recovery potential on the island. The potentially major threats facing the islands’ flora and fauna today are: areas of continued erosion, potential new non-native introductions, and climate change. The Park islands have already experienced warming over the last several decades due to human-induced climate change, and are projected to experience continued warming. These increasing stresses imposed by climate change may slow and inhibit natural recovery potentials for island fauna, and especially flora.

California↗

Soil moisture partitioning between under canopy and interspace environments in shrublands of the northern Chihuahuan Desert

Soil moisture is a key link between hydrologic and ecologic processes in desert shrublands. Understanding how soil moisture is spatially distributed in desert shrublands provides valuable insights into how shrubs use and impact limiting water resources, and how shrublands may respond to future meteorological and climate change. Our goals were to determine how soil moisture is partitioned between soil volumes under canopies and in the bare soil interspaces across multiple desert shrublands, and to evaluate the roles of physical soil properties, shrub-type characteristics, meteorology, and measurement resolution in influencing and observing variation in soil moisture partitioning. Utilizing two long-term soil moisture datasets (monthly resolution, 30 years, whole soil profile measurements; and 30 min resolution, 10 years, 10–30 cm measurements), we compared soil moisture partitioning across nine northern Chihuahuan Desert shrubland sites (three sites dominated by creosotebush [ Larrea tridentata ], three by honey mesquite [ Prosopis glandulosa ], and three by tarbush [ Flourensia cernua ]) in the Jornada Basin, southern New Mexico, USA. Over 30 years, monthly, whole profile data showed that soil moisture in mesquite shrublands was consistently higher in bare soil interspaces compared to under canopies, whereas soil moisture under and between shrubs was more similar in creosotebush and tarbush shrublands. Physical soil properties were linked as explanatory variables of long-term soil moisture partitioning (monthly whole profile dataset), whereas 30-minute data showed that shorter-term periods of higher precipitation promoted greater near surface soil moisture (10–30 cm) in bare soil interspaces that was not captured at monthly time steps. Thus, although the long-term average partitioning of soil moisture in these shrublands is strongly controlled by soil physical properties, soil moisture partitioning varies at shorter timescales (daily to weekly) in response to precipitation events. Moreover, shrub-type characteristics influenced soil moisture partitioning, with dense and tall mesquite shrubs having lower under canopy soil moisture than tarbush, and root architecture potentially influencing partitioning across creosotebush sites. These results illustrate diversity in soil moisture partitioning both between and within shrublands of the northern Chihuahuan Desert, and elucidate how physical soil properties, shrub-type characteristics, and meteorological variation interact to shape their soil moisture dynamics.

New Mexico↗

Mars Global Surveyor Thermal Emission Spectrometer experiment: Investigation description and surface science results

The Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) investigation on Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) is aimed at determining (1) the composition of surface minerals, rocks, and ices; (2) the temperature and dynamics of the atmosphere; (3) the properties of the atmospheric aerosols and clouds; (4) the nature of the polar regions; and (5) the thermophysical properties of the surface materials. These objectives are met using an infrared (5.8- to 50-μm) interferometric spectrometer, along with broadband thermal (5.1- to 150-μm) and visible/near-IR (0.3- to 2.9-μm) radiometers. The MGS TES instrument weighs 14.47 kg, consumes 10.6 W when operating, and is 23.6×35.5×40.0 cm in size. The TES data are calibrated to a 1-σ precision of 2.5 −6 ×10 −8 W cm −2 sr −1 /cm −1 , 1.6×10 −6 W cm −2 sr −1 , and ∼0.5 K in the spectrometer, visible/near-IR bolometer, and IR bolometer, respectively. These instrument subsections are calibrated to an absolute accuracy of ∼4×10 −8 W cm −2 sr −1 /cm −1 (0.5 K at 280 K), 1–2%, and ∼1–2 K, respectively. Global mapping of surface mineralogy at a spatial resolution of 3 km has shown the following: (1) The mineralogic composition of dark regions varies from basaltic, primarily plagioclase feldspar and clinopyroxene, in the ancient, southern highlands to andesitic, dominated by plagioclase feldspar and volcanic glass, in the younger northern plains. (2) Aqueous mineralization has produced gray, crystalline hematite in limited regions under ambient or hydrothermal conditions; these deposits are interpreted to be in-place sedimentary rock formations and indicate that liquid water was stable near the surface for a long period of time. (3) There is no evidence for large-scale (tens of kilometers) occurrences of moderate-grained (>50-μm) carbonates exposed at the surface at a detection limit of ∼10%. (4) Unweathered volcanic minerals dominate the spectral properties of dark regions, and weathering products, such as clays, have not been observed anywhere above a detection limit of ∼10%; this lack of evidence for chemical weathering indicates a geologic history dominated by a cold, dry climate in which mechanical, rather than chemical, weathering was the significant form of erosion and sediment production. (5) There is no conclusive evidence for sulfate minerals at a detection limit of ∼15%. The polar region has been studied with the following major conclusions: (1) Condensed CO 2 has three distinct end-members, from fine-grained crystals to slab ice. (2) The growth and retreat of the polar caps observed by MGS is virtually the same as observed by Viking 12 Martian years ago. (3) Unique regions have been identified that appear to differ primarily in the grain size of CO 2 ; one south polar region appears to remain as black slab CO 2 ice throughout its sublimation. (4) Regional atmospheric dust is common in localized and regional dust storms around the margin and interior of the southern cap. Analysis of the thermophysical properties of the surface shows that (1) the spatial pattern of albedo has changed since Viking observations, (2) a unique cluster of surface materials with intermediate inertia and albedo occurs that is distinct from the previously identified low-inertia/bright and high-inertia/dark surfaces, and (3) localized patches of high-inertia material have been found in topographic lows and may have been formed by a unique set of aeolian, fluvial, or erosional processes or may be exposed bedrock.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗

Surface- and ground-water relations on the Portneuf river, and temporal changes in ground-water levels in the Portneuf Valley, Caribou and Bannock Counties, Idaho, 2001-02

The State of Idaho and local water users are concerned that streamflow depletion in the Portneuf River in Caribou and Bannock Counties is linked to ground-water withdrawals for irrigated agriculture. A year-long field study during 2001 02 that focused on monitoring surface- and ground-water relations was conducted, in cooperation with the Idaho Department of Water Resources, to address some of the water-user concerns. The study area comprised a 10.2-mile reach of the Portneuf River downstream from the Chesterfield Reservoir in the broad Portneuf Valley (Portneuf River Valley reach) and a 20-mile reach of the Portneuf River in a narrow valley downstream from the Portneuf Valley (Pebble-Topaz reach). During the field study, the surface- and ground-water relations were dynamic. A losing river reach was delineated in the middle of the Portneuf River Valley reach, centered approximately 7.2 miles downstream from Chesterfield Reservoir. Two seepage studies conducted in the Portneuf Valley during regulated high flows showed that the length of the losing river reach increased from 2.6 to nearly 6 miles as the irrigation season progressed.Surface- and ground-water relations in the Portneuf Valley also were characterized from an analysis of specific conductance and temperature measurements. In a gaining reach, stratification of specific conductance and temperature across the channel of the Portneuf River was an indicator of ground water seeping into the river.An evolving method of using heat as a tracer to monitor surface- and ground-water relations was successfully conducted with thermistor arrays at four locations. Heat tracing monitored a gaining reach, where ground water was seeping into the river, and monitored a losing reach, where surface water was seeping down through the riverbed (also referred to as a conveyance loss), at two locations.Conveyance losses in the Portneuf River Valley reach were greatest, about 20 cubic feet per second, during the mid-summer regulated high flows. Conveyance losses in the Pebble-Topaz reach were greatest, about 283 cubic feet per second, during the spring regulated high flows and were attributed to a hydroelectric project.Comparison of water levels in 30 wells in the Portneuf Valley during September and October 1968 and 2001 indicated long-term declines since 1968; the median decline was 3.4 feet. September and October were selected for characterizing long-term ground-water-level fluctuations because declines associated with irrigation reach a maximum at the end of the irrigation season. The average annual snowpack in the study area has declined significantly; 1945 85 average annual snowpack was 16.1 inches, whereas 1986 through 2002 average annual snowpack was 11.6 inches. Water-level declines during 1998  2002 may be partially attributable to the extended dry climatic conditions. It is unclear whether the declines could be partially attributed to increases in ground-water withdrawals. Between 1968 and 1980, water rights for ground-water withdrawals nearly doubled from 23,500 to 46,000 acre-feet per year. During this period, ground-water levels were relatively constant and did not exhibit a declining trend that could be related to increased ground-water withdrawal rights. However, ground-water withdrawals are not measured in the valley; thus, the amount of water pumped is not known. Since the 1990s, there have been several years when the Chesterfield Reservoir has not completely refilled, and the water in storage behind the reservoir has been depleted by the middle of the irrigation season. In this situation, surface-water diversions for irrigation were terminated before the end of the irrigation season, and irrigators, who were relying in part on diversions from the Portneuf River, had to rely solely on ground water as an alternate supply. Smaller volumes of water in the Chesterfield Reservoir since the 1990s indicate a growing demand for ground-water supplies.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Multiple resource limitation of dryland soil microbial carbon cycling on the Colorado Plateau

Understanding interactions among biogeochemical cycles is increasingly important as anthropogenic alterations of global climate and of carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) cycles interactively affect the Earth system. Ecosystem processes in the dryland biome, which makes up over 40% of Earth's terrestrial surface, are often distinctively sensitive to small changes in resource availability, likely because levels of many resources are low. However, data also suggest that simultaneous changes in the availability of multiple resources may be necessary to affect a response in these low-resource systems, offering an opportunity to test patterns and controls of co-limitation, serial limitation, and individual limitation in soil environments. While drylands may play a governing role in key aspects of Earth's C cycle, and while an improved understanding of resource limitation could substantially improve our forecasts of dryland responses to change, our understanding of interacting controls on soil C cycle processes remains notably poor in these dry systems. Here, we address multiple fundamental hypotheses of resource controls over ecosystem function to test how water, C, N, and P regulate soil C cycling individually and interactively in a dryland ecosystem on the Colorado Plateau. Using a series of laboratory incubations, we found that, while water, C, and N limited C cycling through serial limitation, water alone resulted in an extremely small respiratory response from target organisms, whereas water + C resulted in a dramatic increase in soil C cycling, suggesting a degree of functional co-limitation. Nitrogen additions alone resulted in no changes to soil C cycling, but when N was added in concert with water and C, N greatly increased soil C cycling rates relative to additions of water and C without N. Phosphorus additions had no effect on the C cycle either alone or synergistically. These patterns were consistent with the stoichiometry of the system and interactions among resources were surprising in ways that inform our understanding of critical theories in ecology, such as the Transient Maxima Hypothesis, supporting the suggestion that multiple resource limitation explains pulse-dynamic C cycling in drylands better than water limitation alone.

Utah↗

U.S. Geological Survey ecosystems science strategy—Advancing discovery and application through collaboration

Executive Summary Ecosystem science is critical to making informed decisions about natural resources that can sustain our Nation’s economic and environmental well-being. Resource managers and policymakers are faced with countless decisions each year at local, regional, and national levels on issues as diverse as renewable and nonrenewable energy development, agriculture, forestry, water supply, and resource allocations at the urban-rural interface. The urgency for sound decisionmaking is increasing dramatically as the world is being transformed at an unprecedented pace and in uncertain directions. Environmental changes are associated with natural hazards, greenhouse gas emissions, and increasing demands for water, land, food, energy, mineral, and living resources. At risk is the Nation’s environmental capital, the goods and services provided by resilient ecosystems that are vital to the health and wellbeing of human societies. Ecosystem science—the study of systems of organisms interacting with their environment and the consequences of natural and human-induced change on these systems—is necessary to inform decisionmakers as they develop policies to adapt to these changes. This Ecosystems Science Strategy is built on a framework that includes basic and applied science. It highlights the critical roles that U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists and partners can play in building scientific understanding and providing timely information to decisionmakers. The strategy underscores the connection between scientific discoveries and the application of new knowledge, and it integrates ecosystem science and decisionmaking, producing new scientific outcomes to assist resource managers and providing public benefits. We envision the USGS as a leader in integrating scientific information into decisionmaking processes that affect the Nation’s natural resources and human well-being. The USGS is uniquely positioned to play a pivotal role in ecosystem science. With its wide range of expertise, the Bureau can bring holistic, cross-scale, interdisciplinary capabilities to the design and conduct of monitoring, research, and modeling and to new technologies for data collection, management, and visualization. Collectively, these capabilities can be used to reveal ecological patterns and processes, explain how and why ecosystems change, and forecast change over different spatial and temporal scales. USGS science can provide managers with options and decision-support tools to use resources sustainably. The USGS has long-standing, collaborative relationships with the Department of the Interior (DOI) and other partners in the natural sciences, in both conducting science and applying the results. The USGS engages these partners in cooperative investigations that otherwise would lack the necessary support or be too expensive for a single bureau to conduct. The heart of this strategy is a framework for USGS ecosystems science that focuses on five long-term goals, which are seen as interconnected components that reinforce our vision of the USGS providing science that is at the forefront of decisionmaking: Improve understanding of ecosystem structure, function, and processes. The focus for this goal is an understanding of how ecosystems work, including the dynamics of species, their populations, interactions, and genetics, and how they change across spatial and temporal scales. Advance understanding of how drivers influence ecosystem change. The challenges here are explaining the drivers of ecosystem change, their spatio-temporal patterns, their uncertainties and interactions, and their influence on ecosystem processes and dynamics. Improve understanding of the services that ecosystems provide to society. Here the emphasis is on the measurement of environmental capital and ecosystem services, and the identification of sources and patterns of change in space and time. Develop tools, technologies, and capacities to inform decisionmaking about ecosystems. This includes developing new technologies and approaches for conducting applications-oriented ecosystem science. A principal challenge will be how to quantify uncertainty and incorporate it in decision analysis. Apply science to enhance strategies for management, conservation, and restoration of ecosystems. These challenges include development of novel approaches to monitoring, assessment, and restoration of ecosystems; new methods to address species of concern and communities at risk; and innovations in decision analysis and support to address imminent ecosystem changes or those that are underway. Closely integrated with the five goals are four strategic approaches that provide the path forward for the USGS Ecosystems Mission Area. These approaches cross-cut all of the goals and are seen as essential to the implementation of this strategy: Assess information needs for ecosystem science through enhanced partnerships. Work with the DOI and other agencies and institutions to identify, design, and implement priority decision-driven ecological research. Promote the use of interdisciplinary ecosystem science. Design and conduct interdisciplinary process-oriented research in ecosystem science. Enhance modeling and forecasting. Build models to forecast ecosystem change, assess future management scenarios, and reduce uncertainties through an adaptive learning process. Support decisionmaking. Use quantitative approaches to assess the vulnerabilities of ecosystems, habitats, and species, and evaluate strategies for adaptation, restoration, and sustainable management. Following the four strategic approaches are a set of proposed actions that represent a sampling of specific USGS activities that align with this strategy and that address the Nation’s most pressing environmental needs. The strategy emphasizes coordination of activities across the USGS mission areas pursuant to these goals. Ecosystem science is inherently interdisciplinary and requires a broad perspective that incorporates the biological and physical sciences, climate science, information technology, and scientific capacity in mission areas across the Bureau. With its emphasis on coordination, this strategy can provide a critical underpinning for integrated science efforts with scientists from multiple mission areas of the USGS working together. Of course, the USGS will continue to conduct discipline-specific and interdisciplinary investigations, and both will continue to be vital parts of the ecosystem science portfolio. Finally, the strategy stresses the importance of coordination with other Federal agencies and organizations in the natural resources community. The USGS collaborates with resource agencies in the DOI and other organizations throughout the world to meet societal needs for species and ecosystem management. Working with these agencies and organizations, the USGS will play a key role in guiding sound decisionmaking during the next decade by advancing the scientific foundation for sustaining the natural resources that diverse, productive, resilient ecosystems provide.

Circular↗

The U.S. Geological Survey Ecosystem Science Strategy, 2012-2022 - Advancing discovery and application through collaboration

Ecosystem science is critical to making informed decisions about natural resources that can sustain our Nation’s economic and environmental well-being. Resource managers and policy-makers are faced with countless decisions each year at local, state, tribal, territorial, and national levels on issues as diverse as renewable and non-renewable energy development, agriculture, forestry, water supply, and resource allocations at the urban-rural interface. The urgency for sound decision-making is increasing dramatically as the world is being transformed at an unprecedented pace and in uncertain directions. Environmental changes are associated with natural hazards, greenhouse gas emissions, and increasing demands for water, land, food, energy, mineral, and living resources. At risk is the Nation’s environmental capital, the goods and services provided by resilient ecosystems that are vital to the health and well-being of human societies. Ecosystem science—the study of systems of organisms interacting with their environment and the consequences of natural and human-induced change on these systems—is necessary to inform decision-makers as they develop policies to adapt to these changes. This Ecosystems Science Strategy is built on a framework that includes basic and applied science. It highlights the critical roles that USGS scientists and partners can play in building scientific understanding and providing timely information to decision-makers. The strategy underscores the connection between scientific discoveries and the application of new knowledge. The strategy integrates ecosystem science and decision-making, producing new scientific outcomes to assist resource managers and providing public benefits. The USGS is uniquely positioned to play an important role in ecosystem science. With its wide range of expertise, the agency can bring holistic, cross-scale, interdisciplinary capabilities to the design and conduct of monitoring, research, and modeling and to new technologies for data collection, management, and visualization. Collectively, these capabilities can be used to reveal ecological patterns and processes, explain how and why ecosystems change, and forecast change over different spatial and temporal scales. USGS science can provide managers with options and decision-support tools to use resources sustainably. The USGS has long-standing, collaborative relationships with the DOI and other partners in the natural sciences, in both conducting science and its application. The USGS engages these partners in cooperative investigations that otherwise would lack the necessary support or be too expensive for a single bureau to conduct. The heart of this strategy is a framework and vision for USGS ecosystems science that focuses on five long-term goals, which are seen as interconnected and reinforcing components: • Improve understanding of ecosystem structure, function, and processes. The focus for this goal is an understanding of how ecosystems work, including the dynamics of species, their populations, interactions, and genetics, and how they change across spatial and temporal scales. • Advance understanding of how drivers influence ecosystem change. The challenges here are explaining the drivers of ecosystem change, their spatio-temporal patterns, their uncertainties and interactions, and their influence on ecosystem processes and dynamics. • Improve understanding of the services that ecosystems provide to society. Here the emphasis is on the measurement of environmental capital and ecosystem services, and the identification of sources and patterns of change in space and time. • Develop tools, technologies, and capacities to inform decision-making about ecosystems. This includes developing new technologies and approaches for conducting applications-oriented ecosystem science. A principal challenge will be how to quantify uncertainty and incorporate it in decision analysis. • Apply science to enhance strategies for management, conservation, and restoration of ecosystems. These challenges include development of novel approaches to monitoring, assessment, and restoration of ecosystems; new methods to address species of concern and communities at risk; and innovations in decision analysis and support to address imminent ecosystem changes or those that are underway. Closely integrated with the five goals are four strategic approaches that provide the path forward for the USGS Ecosystems Mission Area. These approaches cross-cut all of the goals and are seen as essential to the implementation of this strategy: • Assess information needs for ecosystem science through enhanced partnerships. Work with the DOI and other agencies and institutions to identify, design, and implement priority decision-driven ecological research. • Promote the use of interdisciplinary ecosystem science. Design and conduct interdisciplinary process-oriented research in ecosystem science. • Enhance modeling and forecasting. Build models to forecast ecosystem change, assess future management scenarios, and reduce uncertainties through an adaptive learning process. • Support decision-making. Use quantitative approaches to assess the vulnerabilities of ecosystems, habitats, and species, and evaluate strategies for adaptation, restoration, and sustainable management. Following the strategic approaches are a set of proposed actions that represent a sampling of specific activities that align with this strategy and that address the Nation’s most pressing environmental needs. The strategy emphasizes coordination of activities across the USGS mission areas pursuant to these goals. Ecosystem science is inherently interdisciplinary and requires a broad perspective that incorporates the biological and physical sciences, climate science, information technology, and scientific capacity in mission areas across the Bureau. With its emphasis on coordination, this strategy can provide a critical underpinning for integrated science efforts with scientists from multiple mission areas of the USGS working together. Of course, the USGS will continue to conduct both discipline-specific and interdisciplinary investigations, and both will continue to be vital parts of the ecosystem science portfolio. Finally, the strategy stresses the importance of coordination with other Federal agencies and organizations in the natural resources community. The USGS collaborates with resource agencies in the DOI and other organizations throughout the world to meet societal needs for species and ecosystem management. Working with these agencies and organizations, the USGS will play a key role over the next decade in advancing the scientific foundation for sustaining the natural resources that diverse, productive, resilient ecosystems provide.

Open-File Report↗

The hydrologic system of the south Florida peninsula—Development and application of the Biscayne and Southern Everglades Coastal Transport (BISECT) model

The Biscayne and Southern Everglades Coastal Transport (BISECT) model was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey under the Greater Everglades Priority Ecosystem Studies Initiative to evaluate, both separately and in conjunction, the likely effects on surface-water stages and flows, hydroperiod, and groundwater levels and salinity in south Florida of (1) a vertical Biscayne aquifer barrier to maintain higher wetland levels, (2) possible future changes to current water-management practices, and (3) sea-level rise. The BISECT model is a combination of the Tides and Inflows to the Mangrove Everglades (TIME) and Biscayne models of the western and eastern parts of south Florida including Everglades National Park, the southern Miami-Dade urban area, and the Biscayne Bay coast and simulates hydrodynamic surface-water flow and three-dimensional groundwater conditions dynamically for the period 1996–2004 by using the Flow and Transport in a Linked Overland/Aquifer Density-Dependent System (FTLOADDS) simulator. BISECT includes a number of parameter and algorithmic refinements that improve simulation results relative to the TIME and Biscayne models and represents the hydrologic system more explicitly, including (1) improved topographic representations, (2) refined Manning’s friction coefficients, (3) improved evapotranspiration computation through spatially variable albedo, (4) increased vertical aquifer discretization, and (5) extension of the western boundary farther offshore. Sensitivity analyses demonstrate that simulated flows into Long Sound have a different pattern of response to tidal amplitude, wind, and frictional resistance changes than do other coastal streams in the model; flows at Broad River and Lostmans River are most sensitive to tidal amplitude, wind, and frictional resistance changes; and flow to the Everglades coastal streams is substantially affected by surface-water/groundwater interactions in the eastern urban areas. Insight into the hydrologic system came from scenario simulations that represent proposed management actions, such as grouting of the aquifer to prevent seepage from the wetlands and changes to water deliveries proposed by the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP), and projected sea-level rise. These scenario management changes are considered separately to isolate their specific effects and also in conjunction with sea-level rise. Scenario simulations show that (1) attempts to prevent seepage from the wetlands by grouting the aquifer along the L 31N levee produce minimal effects on surface-water levels; (2) the increased water deliveries proposed in the CERP redistribute flow to the northwestern coastal part of the study area with a minimal reduction to the southeast and a more substantial reduction in flows in the intervening coastal zones, mitigating some sea-level rise effects; (3) sea-level rise has a larger effect on the hydrology (water levels, flow, and salinity) than does CERP restoration; and (4) support for ecological models and hydrologic studies can be provided by applying BISECT to scenarios influenced by climatic and anthropogenic changes or by meteorological variability, such as extreme wet or dry periods.

Florida↗

Global change and conservation triage on National Wildlife Refuges

National Wildlife Refuges (NWRs) in the United States play an important role in the adaptation of social-ecological systems to climate change, land-use change, and other global-change processes. Coastal refuges are already experiencing threats from sea-level rise and other change processes that are largely beyond their ability to influence, while at the same time facing tighter budgets and reduced staff. We engaged in workshops with NWR managers along the U.S. Atlantic coast to understand the problems they face from global-change processes and began a multidisciplinary collaboration to use decision science to help address them. We are applying a values-focused approach to base management decisions on the resource objectives of land managers, as well as those of stakeholders who may benefit from the goods and services produced by a refuge. Two insights that emerged from our workshops were a conspicuous mismatch between the scale at which management can influence outcomes and the scale of environmental processes, and the need to consider objectives related to ecosystem goods and services that traditionally have not been explicitly considered by refuges (e.g., protection from storm surge). The broadening of objectives complicates the decision-making process, but also provides opportunities for collaboration with stakeholders who may have agendas different from those of the refuge, as well as an opportunity for addressing problems across scales. From a practical perspective, we recognized the need to (1) efficiently allocate limited staff time and budgets for short-term management of existing programs and resources under the current refuge design and (2) develop long-term priorities for acquiring or protecting new land/habitat to supplement or replace the existing refuge footprint and thus sustain refuge values as the system evolves over time. Structuring the decision-making problem in this manner facilitated a better understanding of the issues of scale and suggested that a long-term solution will require a significant reassessment of objectives to better reflect the comprehensive values of refuges to society. We discuss some future considerations to integrate these two problems into a single framework by developing novel optimization approaches for dynamic problems that account for uncertainty in future conditions.

Ecology and Society↗

Global estimates of evapotranspiration and gross primary production based on MODIS and global meteorology data

The simulation of gross primary production (GPP) at various spatial and temporal scales remains a major challenge for quantifying the global carbon cycle. We developed a light use efficiency model, called EC-LUE, driven by only four variables: normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), air temperature, and the Bowen ratio of sensible to latent heat flux. The EC-LUE model may have the most potential to adequately address the spatial and temporal dynamics of GPP because its parameters (i.e., the potential light use efficiency and optimal plant growth temperature) are invariant across the various land cover types. However, the application of the previous EC-LUE model was hampered by poor prediction of Bowen ratio at the large spatial scale. In this study, we substituted the Bowen ratio with the ratio of evapotranspiration (ET) to net radiation, and revised the RS-PM (Remote Sensing-Penman Monteith) model for quantifying ET. Fifty-four eddy covariance towers, including various ecosystem types, were selected to calibrate and validate the revised RS-PM and EC-LUE models. The revised RS-PM model explained 82% and 68% of the observed variations of ET for all the calibration and validation sites, respectively. Using estimated ET as input, the EC-LUE model performed well in calibration and validation sites, explaining 75% and 61% of the observed GPP variation for calibration and validation sites respectively. Global patterns of ET and GPP at a spatial resolution of 0.5° latitude by 0.6° longitude during the years 2000–2003 were determined using the global MERRA dataset (Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications) and MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer). The global estimates of ET and GPP agreed well with the other global models from the literature, with the highest ET and GPP over tropical forests and the lowest values in dry and high latitude areas. However, comparisons with observed GPP at eddy flux towers showed significant underestimation of ET and GPP due to lower net radiation of MERRA dataset. Applying a procedure to correct the systematic errors of global meteorological data would improve global estimates of GPP and ET. The revised RS-PM and EC-LUE models will provide the alternative approaches making it possible to map ET and GPP over large areas because (1) the model parameters are invariant across various land cover types and (2) all driving forces of the models may be derived from remote sensing data or existing climate observation networks.

Remote Sensing of Environment↗