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At least 1,711 records · Page 95Linked to original sources

Arctic Alaska deepwater organic carbon burial and environmental changes during the late Albian–early Campanian (103–82 Ma)

The middle Cretaceous greenhouse period experienced profound environmental change including episodes of enhanced global burial of organic carbon marked by carbon isotopic excursions (CIEs). However, the role and response of polar regions like the newly formed, partially enclosed Arctic Ocean Basin during middle Cretaceous carbon burial remains enigmatic. We present the first Arctic deepwater CIE record that characterizes conditions offshore of the Alaska margin north of 75°N paleolatitude. Organic carbon isotopes (δ 13 C org ) and 103–82 Ma ash zircon U-Pb dates from the distal Hue Shale record multiple Albian–Campanian CIEs during slow ∼3–15 m/Myr sediment accumulation rates. Average total organic carbon (TOC) increased substantially during large 2–3 ‰ CIEs of the ∼101 Ma Albian-Cenomanian boundary event (from 7 to 18 % TOC) and ∼94 Ma Cenomanian-Turonian boundary event (5 to 10 % TOC). Turonian TOC remained elevated (8–13 %) during high global sea levels and temperatures of the Cretaceous Thermal Maximum, followed by an increase from 7 to 11 % TOC during the ∼90 Ma late Turonian event 1.5 ‰ CIE. Average TOC subsequently decreased in the Coniacian–Campanian, but relative maxima occurred during subtle 0.5–1 ‰ CIEs interpreted as the ∼87 Ma late Coniacian event (increase from 4 to 7 % TOC), ∼85 Ma Horseshoe Bay event (3.5 to 4.5 % TOC), and ∼84 Ma Santonian-Campanian boundary event (3.5 to 5 % TOC). Increases in hydrogen index and productivity proxies (P, Ba, Nd) that accompanied each CIE episode with enhanced TOC suggest a strong link between marine productivity and organic carbon burial at short-term CIE timescales. However, long-term (>5–8 Myr) changes in trace metal redox (Mo, Fe, V) and salinity (B/Ga) proxies suggest shifts in prevailing environmental conditions at timescales longer than the CIEs. Late Albian–middle Turonian marine salinity occurred during euxinic (103–98 Ma) and suboxic (98–90 Ma) conditions with deposition interpreted to have occurred within and beneath an oxygen minimum zone, respectively. In contrast, late Turonian–early Campanian (90–82 Ma) freshening and restricted euxinic basin conditions may signal the start of widespread restriction known to characterize the Paleogene Arctic. Overall, these results highlight that middle Cretaceous Arctic deepwater remained a productive marine carbon sink coupled to the global carbon cycle despite evolving Arctic greenhouse conditions.

Alaska↗

Giardia and Cryptosporidium in resident wildlife species in Arctic Alaska

Giardia and Cryptosporidium are zoonotic protozoan parasites that can infect humans and other taxa, including wildlife, often causing gastrointestinal illness. Both have been identified as One Health priorities in the Arctic, where climate change is expected to influence the distribution of many wildlife and zoonotic diseases, but little is known about their prevalence in local wildlife. To help fill information gaps, we collected fecal samples from four wildlife species that occur seasonally on the northern Alaska coastline or in nearshore marine waters—Arctic fox ( Vulpes lagopus ), polar bear ( Ursus maritimus ), Pacific walrus ( Odobenus rosmarus divergens ), and caribou ( Rangifer tarandus )—and used immunofluorescence assays to screen for Giardia cysts and Cryptosporidium oocysts. We detected Giardia cysts in 18.3% and Cryptosporidium oocysts in 16.5% of Arctic foxes ( n = 109), suggesting that foxes may be potentially important hosts in this region. We also detected Giardia cysts in a single polar bear (12.5%; n = 8), which to our knowledge represents the first such report for this species. Neither parasite was detected in walruses or caribou.

Food and Waterborne Parasitology↗

Stand and landscape level effects of a major outbreak of spruce beetles on forest vegetation in the Copper River Basin, Alaska

From 1989 to 2003, a widespread outbreak of spruce beetles (Dendroctonus rufipennis) in the Copper River Basin, Alaska, infested over 275,000 ha of forests in the region. During 1997 and 1998, we measured forest vegetation structure and composition on one hundred and thirty-six 20-m ?? 20-m plots to assess both the immediate stand and landscape level effects of the spruce beetle infestation. A photo-interpreted vegetation and infestation map was produced using color-infrared aerial photography at a scale of 1:40,000. We used linear regression to quantify the effects of the outbreak on forest structure and composition. White spruce (Picea glauca) canopy cover and basal area of medium-to-large trees [???15 cm diameter-at-breast height (1.3 m, dbh)] were reduced linearly as the number of trees attacked by spruce beetles increased. Black spruce (Picea mariana) and small diameter white spruce (<15 cm dbh) were infrequently attacked and killed by spruce beetles. This selective attack of mature white spruce reduced structural complexity of stands to earlier stages of succession and caused mixed tree species stands to lose their white spruce and become more homogeneous in overstory composition. Using the resulting regressions, we developed a transition matrix to describe changes in vegetation types under varying levels of spruce beetle infestations, and applied the model to the vegetation map. Prior to the outbreak, our study area was composed primarily of stands of mixed white and black spruce (29% of area) and pure white spruce (25%). However, the selective attack on white spruce caused many of these stands to transition to black spruce dominated stands (73% increase in area) or shrublands (26% increase in area). The post-infestation landscape was thereby composed of more even distributions of shrubland and white, black, and mixed spruce communities (17-22% of study area). Changes in the cover and composition of understory vegetation were less evident in this study. However, stands with the highest mortality due to spruce beetles had the lowest densities of white spruce seedlings suggesting a longer forest regeneration time without an increase in seedling germination, growth, or survival. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Forest Ecology and Management↗

Shifts in the wintering distribution and abundance of Emperor Geese in Alaska

For wildlife species that winter at northern latitudes, harsh overwinter conditions can play an important role in population dynamics. Recent changes in global temperatures have resulted in distributional shifts of wildlife species, as well as amelioration of winter climates in northern landscapes. The emperor goose ( Anser canagicus ), an endemic migratory bird of the Bering Sea region, winters across a large area of the subarctic, with potential differences in migration strategies and costs among individuals. As a long-standing species of conservation concern due to decreased population size, understanding the response of emperor geese to changing conditions has become critical to on-going management. We sought to evaluate changes in wintering distribution and arrival/departure dates over time, by comparing spatial and temporal patterns of wintering emperor geese from 2015 to 2017 (using geolocator data) to satellite telemetry data collected from 1999 to 2004. Further, we quantified changes in spatial patterns of winter abundance by comparing historical and contemporary aerial and ground surveys at three island complexes encompassing most of their winter distribution. Our results indicate that emperor geese are arriving at wintering areas earlier and spending more time at these areas than in the past. Our comparisons among historical aerial and ground surveys suggests that increasing numbers of emperor geese are wintering closer to breeding areas in western Alaska; a change likely related to increasing habitat availability due to shifting environmental conditions. Our results also showed that fewer emperor geese are using an area in the core of their wintering range, suggesting either decreased habitat quality or a reduction in migration distance via alternative wintering locations. Overall, our study highlights a rapid response to apparent habitat change likely due to warming temperatures and a reduction in ice cover and emphasizes the importance of understanding complex interactions among migration distance, the environment, and habitat in interpreting site selection.

Alaska↗

Assessment of pingo distribution and morphometry using an IfSAR derived digital surface model, western Arctic Coastal Plain, Northern Alaska

Pingos are circular to elongate ice-cored mounds that form by injection and freezing of pressurized water in near-surface permafrost. Here we use a digital surface model (DSM) derived from an airborne Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (IfSAR) system to assess the distribution and morphometry of pingos within a 40,000 km 2 area on the western Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska. We have identified 1247 pingo forms in the study region, ranging in height from 2 to 21 m, with a mean height of 4.6 m. Pingos in this region are of hydrostatic origin, with 98% located within 995 drained lake basins, most of which are underlain by thick eolian sand deposits. The highest pingo density (0.18 km − 2 ) occurs where streams have reworked these deposits. Morphometric analyses indicate that most pingos are small to medium in size (< 200 m diameter), gently to moderately sloping (< 30°), circular to slightly elongate (mean circularity index of 0.88), and of relatively low height (2 to 5 m). However, 57 pingos stand higher than 10 m, 26 have a maximum slope greater than 30°, and 42 are larger than 200 m in diameter. Comparison with a legacy pingo dataset based on 1950s stereo-pair photography indicates that 66 may have partially or completely collapsed over the last half-century. However, we mapped over 400 pingos not identified in the legacy dataset, and identified only three higher than 2 m to have formed between ca. 1955 and ca. 2005, indicating that caution should be taken when comparing contemporary and legacy datasets derived by different techniques. This comprehensive database of pingo location and morphometry based on an IfSAR DSM may prove useful for land and resource managers as well as aid in the identification of pingo-like features on Mars.

Geomorphology↗

Spatial distribution of thermokarst terrain in Arctic Alaska

In landscapes underlain by ice-rich permafrost, the development of thermokarst landforms can have drastic impacts on ecosystem processes and human infrastructure. Here we describe the distribution of thermokarst landforms in the continuous permafrost zone of Arctic Alaska, analyze linkages to the underlying surficial geology, and discuss the vulnerability of different types of landscapes to future thaw. We identified nine major thermokarst landforms and then mapped their distributions in twelve representative study areas totaling 300-km 2 . These study areas differ in their geologic history, permafrost-ice content, and ground thermal regime. Results show that 63% of the entire study area is occupied by thermokarst landforms and that the distribution of thermokarst landforms and overall landscape complexity varies markedly with surficial geology. Areas underlain by ice-rich marine silt are the most affected by thermokarst (97% of total area), whereas areas underlain by glacial drift are least affected (14%). Drained thermokarst-lake basins are the most widespread thermokarst landforms, covering 33% of the entire study region, with greater prevalence in areas of marine silt (48% coverage), marine sand (47%), and aeolian silt (34%). Thermokarst-lakes are the second most common thermokarst landform, covering 16% of the study region, with highest coverage in areas underlain by marine silt (39% coverage). Thermokarst troughs and pits cover 7% of the study region and are the third most prevalent thermokarst landform. They are most common in areas underlain by deltaic sands and gravels (18% coverage) and marine sand (12%). Alas valleys are widespread in areas of aeolian silt (14%) located in gradually sloping uplands. Areas of marine silt have been particularly vulnerable to thaw in the past because they are ice-rich and have low-gradient topography facilitating the repeated development of thermokarst-lakes. In the future, ice-rich aeolian, upland terrain (yedoma) will be particularly susceptible to thaw because it still contains massive concentrations of ground ice in the form of syngenetic ice-wedges that have remained largely intact since the Pleistocene.

Alaska↗

Glacial conditioning of stream position and flooding in the braid plain of the Exit Glacier foreland, Alaska

Flow spilling out of an active braid plain often signals the onset of channel migration or avulsion to previously occupied areas. In a recently deglaciated environment, distinguishing between shifts in active braid plain location, considered reversible by fluvial processes at short timescales, and more permanent glacier-conditioned changes in stream position can be critical to understanding flood hazards. Between 2009 and 2014, increased spilling from the Exit Creek braid plain in Kenai Fjords National Park, Alaska, repeatedly overtopped the only access road to the popular Exit Glacier visitor facilities and trails. To understand the likely cause of road flooding, we consider recent processes and the interplay between glacier and fluvial system dynamics since the maximum advance of the Little Ice Age, around 1815. Patterns of temperature and precipitation, the variables that drive high streamflow via snowmelt, glacier meltwater runoff, and rainfall, could not fully explain the timing of road floods. Comparison of high-resolution topographic data between 2008 and 2012 showed a strong pattern of braid plain aggradation along 3 km of glacier foreland, not unexpected at the base of mountainous glaciers and likely an impetus for channel migration. Historically, a dynamic zone follows the retreating glacier in which channel positions shift rapidly in response to changes in the glacier margin and fresh morainal deposits. This period of paraglacial adjustment lasts one to several decades at Exit Glacier. Subsequently, as moraine breaches consolidate and lock the channel into position, and as the stream regains the lower-elevation valley center, upper-elevation surfaces are abandoned as terraces inaccessible by fluvial processes for timescales of decades to centuries. Where not constrained by these terraces and moraines, the channel is free to migrate, which in this aggradational setting generates an alluvial fan at the breach of the final prominent moraine. The position of this fan is glacially conditioned but the process of migration of the braided channels across it is not. This broad perspective on channel controls identifies incipient avulsion into the roadside forest as part of a long-term fan-building process independent from changes in streamflow or sediment load.

Alaska↗

Revising supraglacial rock avalanche magnitudes and frequencies in Glacier Bay National Park, Alaska

The frequency of large supraglacial landslides (rock avalanches) occurring in glacial environments is thought to be increasing due to feedbacks with climate warming and permafrost degradation. However, it is difficult to (i) test this; (ii) establish cause–effect relationships; and (iii) determine associated lag-times, due to both temporal and spatial biases in detection rates. Here we applied the Google Earth Engine supraglacial debris input detector (GERALDINE) to Glacier Bay National Park & Preserve (GLBA), Alaska. We find that the number of rock avalanches (RAs) has previously been underestimated by 53 %, with a bias in past detections towards large area RAs. In total, GLBA experienced 69 RAs during 1984–2020, with the highest frequency in the last three years. Of these, 58 % were deposited into the accumulation zone and then sequestered into the ice within two years. RA sources clustered spatially at high elevations and around certain peaks and ridges, predominantly at the boundary of modelled permafrost likelihood. They also clustered temporally, occurring mainly between May and September when air temperatures were high enough to initiate rock-permafrost degradation mechanisms. There was a chronic background debris supply from RAs, with at least one RA occurring in all but nine years; however, a debris rich period during 2012–2016 was driven by three large RAs delivering 44 % of all (1984–2020) debris (by area). Comparable investigation of slope-failures in other remote currently glaciated regions is lacking. If RA rates are similar elsewhere, especially the bias towards emplacement onto/into accumulation zones, their contribution to glacial sediment budgets has been globally underestimated.

Alaska↗

Toward an efficient framework for remote sensing of river bathymetry: Comparing sensors and algorithms on an inaccessible proglacial river in Alaska

Remote sensing can provide reliable information on river depths and this approach might be particularly valuable in areas that are difficult to survey via conventional field methods. In this study, we assessed the potential to map the bathymetry of an inaccessible proglacial river in Alaska from both aerial orthophotos and a multispectral satellite image. In addition, we evaluated a variety of depth retrieval algorithms with different input data requirements, including some methods that require field measurements of water depth for calibration and other techniques that can be applied even when such field data are not available. These approaches might enable more efficient use of remote sensing methods by resource management agencies. Our results suggest that bathymetric mapping along the turquoise-colored river we examined was not only feasible but highly accurate ( R 2 up to 0.94) for both types of image data. Algorithms that use paired observations of depth and reflectance to train depth retrieval models were the most accurate, with errors on the order of 15%–20% and little or no bias. Alternative techniques based on hydraulic and statistical concepts also led to strong agreement between predicted and observed depths but were more susceptible to systematic biases toward under- or over-estimation of depth. In contrast to clear-flowing streams, bathymetric mapping in this environment was enabled by a direct relationship between the depth and brightness of the water due to scattering by suspended sediment. In selecting an appropriate depth retrieval method, a compromise might need to be reached between the level of field effort invested and the accuracy of the resulting image-derived bathymetry. Standalone software for implementing these techniques is freely available.

Alaska↗

ShakeAlert® and schools: Incorporating earthquake early warning in school districts in Alaska, California, Oregon, and Washington

The U.S. Geological Survey-managed ShakeAlert® earthquake early warning system is the first public alerting system in the United States to provide rapid mass notification when an earthquake is detected. Although public alert delivery via mobile phones began in California in 2019 followed by Oregon and Washington in 2021, little is known about what might drive widespread implementation in at-risk institutional settings such as schools. For example, there has been limited research on how to best integrate earthquake early warning into existing emergency plans, alert systems, and drills to keep school children and personnel safe in an earthquake. To address this gap, in the spring of 2022, every school district superintendent in Alaska, California, Oregon, and Washington was sent a 15-min online survey. The survey assessed superintendent knowledge of ShakeAlert, preferences for alert messaging, and perceived opportunities and barriers to incorporating the system in schools. The results showed that superintendents had low awareness of ShakeAlert but held positive perceptions of the system's potential to enable life-saving protective actions. A major barrier to adoption included the perceived financial cost of implementing and maintaining the system. There were some statistically significant differences in state responses, and future research could investigate the specific needs of each state based on school district size and composition, hazard exposure, and earthquake experience. Together these findings can help inform targeted strategies to increase ShakeAlert adoption in schools and ultimately improve the safety of school children and staff during earthquakes.

Alaska, California, Oregon, Washington↗

Reconstructing satellite images to quantify spatially explicit land surface change caused by fires and succession: A demonstration in the Yukon River Basin of interior Alaska

Land surface change caused by fires and succession is confounded by many site-specific factors and requires further study. The objective of this study was to reveal the spatially explicit land surface change by minimizing the confounding factors of weather variability, seasonal offset, topography, land cover, and drainage. In a pilot study of the Yukon River Basin of interior Alaska, we retrieved Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), albedo, and land surface temperature (LST) from a postfire Landsat image acquired on August 5th, 2004. With a Landsat reference image acquired on June 26th, 1986, we reconstructed NDVI, albedo, and LST of 1987–2004 fire scars for August 5th, 2004, assuming that these fires had not occurred. The difference between actual postfire and assuming-no-fire scenarios depicted the fires and succession impact. Our results demonstrated the following: (1) NDVI showed an immediate decrease after burning but gradually recovered to prefire levels in the following years, in which burn severity might play an important role during this process; (2) Albedo showed an immediate decrease after burning but then recovered and became higher than prefire levels; and (3) Most fires caused surface warming, but cooler surfaces did exist; time-since-fire affected the prefire and postfire LST difference but no absolute trend could be found. Our approach provided spatially explicit land surface change rather than average condition, enabling a better understanding of fires and succession impact on ecological consequences at the pixel level.

ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing↗

Does the extent of glacial cover across watersheds and discharge periods affect dietary resource use of nearshore fishes in the Northern Gulf of Alaska?

Northern high-latitude glaciers impact nearshore marine ecosystems through the discharge of cold and fresh waters, including nutrients and organic matter. Fishes are important integrators of ecosystem processes and hold key positions in the transfer of energy to higher trophic positions in such systems. This study used a natural gradient in space and time, including watershed glacial cover (0–60%) of five adjacent estuaries and three sequential discharge periods (pre-peak, peak, post-peak) in the northern Gulf of Alaska (Kachemak Bay) to test whether differences in glacial cover of watersheds upstream of estuaries affect dietary resource use of nearshore fishes. Dietary resource use was assessed using stomach content and stable carbon and nitrogen isotope analyses to determine fish diet composition and trophic niche width. Crescent gunnel ( Pholis laeta ), a mostly sedentary species, was our focal species for comparisons across estuaries and discharge periods. Discharge period had a greater influence on diet composition and trophic niche width of crescent gunnels than watershed glacial coverage. Niche width of crescent gunnel was larger during the post-peak discharge period compared to pre-peak and peak periods, coincident with a shift in prey spectrum. However, watershed glacial cover was not a suitable predictor of niche width of crescent gunnel. Trophic resource use was also considered along this glacial cover gradient for two other fish species, Pacific staghorn sculpin ( Leptocottus armatus ) and starry flounder ( Platichthys stellatus ), but within the post-peak discharge period only. These species exploited a larger prey base compared to crescent gunnel, likely due to their greater mobility. Similar to crescent gunnel, there were no relationships in trophic niche width associated with watershed glacial coverage for these other species during the post-peak discharge period. Instead, trophic resource use of these three nearshore fish species was influenced by a more complex set of dynamic environmental variables (salinity, temperature, turbidity, and discharge), as well as static watershed characteristics, especially vegetation cover. Such drivers can act through changes in metabolic rates, modulating foraging strategies and trophic connectivity, as well as terrestrial nutrient delivery to support estuarine production. The environmental conditions associated with the glacially influenced estuaries during our study period (2020−2021) seemed within a range that allowed nearshore fishes to maintain energy pathways and prey bases across these estuaries, but it is unknown how these estuarine food webs may be influenced in years of extreme conditions such as during heat waves, droughts, or floods.

Alaska↗

Satellite remote sensing estimation of river discharge: Application to the Yukon River Alaska

A methodology based on general hydraulic relations for rivers has been developed to estimate the discharge (flow rate) of rivers using satellite remote sensing observations. The estimates of discharge, flow depth, and flow velocity are derived from remotely observed water surface area, water surface slope, and water surface height, and demonstrated for two reaches of the Yukon River in Alaska, at Eagle (reach length 34.7 km) and near Stevens Village (reach length 38.3 km). The method is based on fundamental equations of hydraulic flow resistance in rivers, including the Manning equation and the Prandtl-von Karman universal velocity distribution equation. The method employs some new hydraulic relations to help define flow resistance and height of the zero flow boundary in the channel. Estimates are made both with and without calibration. The water surface area of the river reach is measured by using a provisional version of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Landsat based product named Dynamic Surface Water Extent (DSWE). The water surface height and slope measurements require a self-consistent datum, and are derived from observations from the Jason-2 satellite altimeter mission. At both reach locations, the Jason-2 radar altimeter non-winter heights consistently tracked the stage recorded at USGS streamgages with a standard deviation of differences (error) during the non-winter periods of less than 7%. Part of the error may be due to differences in the gage and altimeter crossing locations with respect to the range of stage change and the response to changes in discharge at the upstream and downstream locations. For the non-winter periods, the radar derived slope estimates (mean = 0.0003) were constant over the mission lifetime, and in agreement with previously measured USGS water surface slopes and slopes determined from USGS topographic maps. The accuracy of the mean of the uncalibrated daily estimates of discharge varied between reaches, ranging from 13% near Stevens Village (N = 90) to −21% at Eagle (N = 246) based on the absolute error, and 5% to −6% based on the error of the log of the estimates. Calibrating to the mean of USGS daily discharge estimates from the streamflow rating for the same period of record at each streamgage resulted in mean absolute errors ranging from 1% to 2%, and log errors ranging from 1% or less. The error pattern of the estimates shows that without calibration, even though the mean is well simulated, the high and low end values over the range of estimates may have significant bias.

Alaska↗

Acoustic measurements of the 1999 basaltic eruption of Shishaldin volcano, Alaska 2. Precursor to the Subplinian phase

The 1999 eruption of Shishaldin volcano (Alaska, USA) displayed both Strombolian and Subplinian basaltic activity. The Subplinian phase was preceded by a signal of low amplitude and constant frequency (??? 2 Hz) lasting 13 h. This "humming signal" is interpreted as the coalescence of the very shallow part of a foam building up in the conduit, which produces large gas bubbles before bursting. The acoustic waveform of the hum event is modelled by a Helmholtz resonator: gas is trapped into a rigid cavity and can only escape through a tiny upper hole producing sound waves. At Shishaldin, the radius of the hole (??? 5 m) is close to that of the conduit (??? 6 m), the cavity has a length of ??? 60 m, and gas presents only a small overpressure between (??? 1.2 ?? 10-3 and 4.5 ?? 10-3 MPa). Such an overpressure is obtained by the partial coalescence of a foam formed by bubbles with a diameter from ??? 2.3 mm at the beginning of the episode towards ??? 0.64 mm very close to the end of the phase. The intermittency between hum events is explained by the ripening of the foam induced by the H2O diffusion through the liquid films. The two extreme values, from 600 to 10 s, correspond to a bubble diameter from 2.2 to 0.3 mm at the beginning and end of the pre-Subplinian phase, respectively. The extremely good agreement between two independent estimates of bubble diameters in the shallow foam reinforces the validity of such an interpretation. The total gas volume lost at the surface during the humming events is at most 5.9 ?? 106 m3. At the very end of the pre-Subplinian phase, there is a single large bubble with an overpressure of ???0.42 MPa. The large overpressure suggests that it comes from significant depth, unlike other bubbles in the pre-Subplinian phase. This deep bubble may be responsible for the entire foam collapse, resulting in the Subplinian phase. ?? 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗

Ongoing hydrothermal heat loss from the 1912 ash-flow sheet, Valley of Ten Thousand Smokes, Alaska

The June 1912 eruption of Novarupta filled nearby glacial valleys on the Alaska Peninsula with ash-flow tuff (ignimbrite), and post-eruption observations of thousands of steaming fumaroles led to the name ‘Valley of Ten Thousand Smokes’ (VTTS). By the late 1980s most fumarolic activity had ceased, but the discovery of thermal springs in mid-valley in 1987 suggested continued cooling of the ash-flow sheet. Data collected at the mid-valley springs between 1987 and 2001 show a statistically significant correlation between maximum observed chloride (Cl) concentration and temperature. These data also show a statistically significant decline in the maximum Cl concentration. The observed variation in stream chemistry across the sheet strongly implies that most solutes, including Cl, originate within the area of the VTTS occupied by the 1912 deposits. Numerous measurements of Cl flux in the Ukak River just below the ash-flow sheet suggest an ongoing heat loss of ∼250 MW. This represents one of the largest hydrothermal heat discharges in North America. Other hydrothermal discharges of comparable magnitude are related to heat obtained from silicic magma bodies at depth, and are quasi-steady on a multidecadal time scale. However, the VTTS hydrothermal flux is not obviously related to a magma body and is clearly declining. Available data provide reasonable boundary and initial conditions for simple transient modeling. Both an analytical, conduction-only model and a numerical model predict large rates of heat loss from the sheet 90 years after deposition.

Alaska↗

Repeating coupled earthquakes at Shishaldin Volcano, Alaska

Since it last erupted in 1999, Shishaldin Volcano, Aleutian Islands, Alaska, has produced hundreds to thousands of long-period (1-2 Hz; LP) earthquakes every day with no other sign of volcanic unrest. In 2002, the earthquakes also exhibited a short-period (4-7 Hz; SP) signal occurring between 3 and 15 s before the LP phase. Although the SP phase contains higher frequencies than the LP phase, its spectral content is still well below that expected of brittle failure events. The SP phase was never observed without the LP phase, although LP events continued to occur in the absence of the precursory signal. The two-phased events are termed "coupled events", reflecting a triggered relationship between two discrete event types. Both phases are highly repetitive in time series, suggestive of stable, non-destructive sources. Waveform cross-correlation and spectral coherence are used to extract waveforms from the continuous record and determine precise P-wave arrivals for the SP phase. Although depths are poorly constrained, the SP phase is believed to lie at shallow (<4 km) depths just west of Shishaldin's summit. The variable timing between the SP and LP arrivals indicates that the trigger mechanism between the phases itself moves at variable speeds. A model is proposed in which the SP phase results from fluid moving within the conduit, possibly around an obstruction and the LP phase results from the coalescence of a shallow gas bubble. The variable timing is attributed to changes in gas content within the conduit. The destruction of the conduit obstacle on November 21, 2002 resulted in the abrupt disappearance of the SP phase.

Alaska↗

Thickness distribution of a cooling pyroclastic flow deposit on Augustine Volcano, Alaska: Optimization using InSAR, FEMs, and an adaptive mesh algorithm

Interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) imagery documents the consistent subsidence, during the interval 1992–1999, of a pyroclastic flow deposit (PFD) emplaced during the 1986 eruption of Augustine Volcano, Alaska. We construct finite element models (FEMs) that simulate thermoelastic contraction of the PFD to account for the observed subsidence. Three-dimensional problem domains of the FEMs include a thermoelastic PFD embedded in an elastic substrate. The thickness of the PFD is initially determined from the difference between post- and pre-eruption digital elevation models (DEMs). The initial excess temperature of the PFD at the time of deposition, 640 °C, is estimated from FEM predictions and an InSAR image via standard least-squares inverse methods. Although the FEM predicts the major features of the observed transient deformation, systematic prediction errors (RMSE = 2.2 cm) are most likely associated with errors in the a priori PFD thickness distribution estimated from the DEM differences. We combine an InSAR image, FEMs, and an adaptive mesh algorithm to iteratively optimize the geometry of the PFD with respect to a minimized misfit between the predicted thermoelastic deformation and observed deformation. Prediction errors from an FEM, which includes an optimized PFD geometry and the initial excess PFD temperature estimated from the least-squares analysis, are sub-millimeter (RMSE = 0.3 mm). The average thickness (9.3 m), maximum thickness (126 m), and volume (2.1 × 10 7 m 3 ) of the PFD, estimated using the adaptive mesh algorithm, are about twice as large as the respective estimations for the a priori PFD geometry. Sensitivity analyses suggest unrealistic PFD thickness distributions are required for initial excess PFD temperatures outside of the range 500–800 °C.

Alaska↗

On the absence of InSAR-detected volcano deformation spanning the 1995-1996 and 1999 eruptions of Shishaldin Volcano, Alaska

Shishaldin Volcano, a large, frequently active basaltic-andesite volcano located on Unimak Island in the Aleutian Arc of Alaska, had a minor eruption in 1995–1996 and a VEI 3 sub-Plinian basaltic eruption in 1999. We used 21 synthetic aperture radar images acquired by ERS-1, ERS-2, JERS-1, and RADARSAT-1 satellites to construct 12 coherent interferograms that span most of the 1993–2003 time interval. All interferograms lack coherence within ∼5 km of the summit, primarily due to persistent snow and ice cover on the edifice. Remarkably, in the 5–15 km distance range where interferograms are coherent, the InSAR images show no intrusion- or withdrawal-related deformation at Shishaldin during this entire time period. However, several InSAR images do show deformation associated with a shallow M L 5.2 earthquake located ∼14 km west of Shishaldin that occurred 6 weeks before the 1999 eruption. We use a theoretical model to predict deformation magnitudes due to a volumetric expansion source having a volume equivalent to the 1999 erupted volume, and find that deformation magnitudes for sources shallower than 10 km are within the expected detection capabilities for interferograms generated from C-band ERS 1/2 and RADARSAT-1 synthetic aperture radar images. We also find that InSAR images cannot resolve relatively shallow deformation sources (1–2 km below sea level) due to spatial gaps in the InSAR images caused by lost coherence. The lack of any deformation, particularly for the 1999 eruption, leads us to speculate that magma feeding eruptions at the summit moves rapidly (at least 80m/day) from > 10 km depth, and that the intrusion–eruption cycle at Shishaldin does not produce significant permanent deformation at the surface.

Alaska↗