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USGS2004

Loads and yields of selected constituents in streams and rivers of Monroe County, New York, 1984-2001

Hydrologic data collected in Monroe County since the 1980s and earlier, including long-term records of streamflow and chemical loads, provide a basis for assessment of water-management practices. All monitored streams except Northrup Creek showed a slight (nonsignificant) overall decrease in annual streamflow over their period of record; Northrup Creek showed a slight increase. The highest yields of all constituents except chloride and sulfate were at Northrup Creek; these values exceeded those of the seven Irondequoit Creek basin sites and the Genesee River site. The highest yields of dissolved chloride were at the most highly urbanized site (Allen Creek), whereas the highest yields of dissolved sulfate were at the most upstream Irondequoit Creek sites -- Railroad Mills (active) and Pittsford (inactive). Yields of all constituents in the Genesee River at the Charlotte Pump Station were within the range of those at the Irondequoit Creek basin sites. The four active Irondequoit Creek basin sites showed significant downward trends in flow-adjusted loads of ammonia + organic nitrogen, possibly from the conversion of agricultural land to suburban land. Two active sites (Allen Creek and Blossom Road) and one inactive site (Thomas Creek) showed downward trends in loads of ammonia. All active sites showed significant upward trends in dissolved chloride loads. Northrup Creek showed a significant downward trend in total phosphorus load since the improvement in phosphorus removal at the Spencerport wastewater-treatment plant, and upward trends in dissolved chloride and sulfate loads. The Genesee River at the Charlotte Pump Station showed significant downward trends in loads of ammonia + organic nitrogen and chloride, and an upward trend in loads of orthophosphate. The improved treatment or diversion of sewage-treatment-plant-effluent has produced decreased yields of some constituents throughout the county, particularly in the Irondequoit Creek basin, where the loads of nutrients delivered to Irondequoit Bay have been decreased.

New York↗

USGS1995

Water-quality conditions at selected landfills in Mecklenburg County, North Carolina, 1986-92

Water-quality conditions at five municipal landfills in Mecklenburg County, North Carolina, were studied during 1986-92. Analytical results of water samples from monitoring wells and streams at and near the landfills were used to evaluate effects of leachate on surface and ground water. Ground-water levels at monitoring wells were used to determine directions of ground-water flow at the landfills. Data from previous studies were used for analysis of temporal trends in selected water-quality properties and chemical constituents. Effects of leachate, such as large biochemical- and chemical-oxygen demands, generally were evident in small streams originating within the landfills, whereas effects of leachate generally were not evident in most of the larger streams. In larger streams, surface-water quality upstream and downstream from most of the landfills was similar. However, the chemical quality of water in Irwin Creek appears to have been affected by the Statesville Road landfill. Concentrations of several constituents indicative of leachate were larger in samples collected from Irwin Creek downstream from the Statesville Road landfill than in samples collected from Irwin Creek upstream from the landfill. The effect of leachate on ground-water quality generally was largest in water from wells adjacent to waste-disposal cells. Concentrations of most constituents considered indicative of leachate generally were smaller with increasing distance from waste-disposal cells. Water samples from offsite wells generally indicated no effect or very small effects of leachate. Action levels designated by the Mecklenburg County Engineering Department and maximum contaminant levels established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency were exceeded in some samples from the landfills. Ground-water samples exceeded action levels and maximum contaminant levels more commonly than surface-water samples. Iron and manganese were the constituents that most commonly exceeded action levels in water samples from the landfills. Synthetic organic compounds were detected more commonly and in larger concentrations in ground-water samples than in surface-water samples. Concentrations of synthetic organic compounds detected in water samples from monitoring sites at the landfills generally were much less than maximum contaminant levels. However, concentrations of some chlorinated organic compounds exceeded maximum contaminant levels in samples from several monitoring wells at the Harrisburg Road and York Road landfills. Trend analysis indicated statistically significant temporal changes in concentrations of selected water-quality constituents and properties at some of the monitoring sites. Trends detected for the Holbrooks Road and Statesville Road landfills generally indicated an improvement in water quality and a decrease in effects of leachate at most monitoring sites at these landfills from 1979 to 1992. Water-quality trends detected for monitoring sites at the Harrisburg Road and York Road landfills, the largest landfills in the study, differed in magnitude and direction. Upward trends generally were detected for sites near recently closed waste-disposal cells, whereas downward trends generally were detected for sites near older waste-disposal cells. Temporal trends in water quality generally reflected changes in degradation processes associated with the aging of landfill wastes.

North Carolina↗

USGS2018

Chesapeake Bay dissolved oxygen criterion attainment deficit: Three decades of temporal and spatial patterns

Low dissolved oxygen (DO) conditions are a recurring issue in waters of Chesapeake Bay, with detrimental effects on aquatic living resources. The Chesapeake Bay Program partnership has developed criteria guidance supporting the definition of state water quality standards and associated assessment procedures for DO and other parameters, which provides a binary classification of attainment or impairment. Evaluating time series of these two outcomes alone, however, provides limited information on water quality change over time or space. Here we introduce an extension of the existing Chesapeake Bay water quality criterion assessment framework to quantify the amount of impairment shown by space-time exceedance of DO criterion (“attainment deficit”) for a specific tidal management unit (i.e., segment). We demonstrate the usefulness of this extended framework by applying it to Bay segments for each 3-year assessment period between 1985 and 2016. In general, the attainment deficit for the most recent period assessed (i.e., 2014–2016) is considerably worse for deep channel (DC; n = 10) segments than open water (OW; n = 92) and deep water (DW; n = 18) segments. Most subgroups – classified by designated uses, salinity zones, or tidal systems – show better (or similar) attainment status in 2014–2016 than their initial status (1985–1987). Some significant temporal trends (p < 0.1) were detected, presenting evidence on the recovery for portions of Chesapeake Bay with respect to DO criterion attainment. Significant, improving trends were observed in seven OW segments, four DW segments, and one DC segment over the 30 3-year assessment periods (1985–2016). Likewise, significant, improving trends were observed in 15 OW, five DW, and four DC segments over the recent 15 assessment periods (2000–2016). Subgroups showed mixed trends, with the Patuxent, Nanticoke, and Choptank Rivers experiencing significant, improving short-term (2000–2016) trends while Elizabeth experiencing a significant, degrading short-term trend. The general lack of significantly improving trends across the Bay suggests that further actions will be necessary to achieve full attainment of DO criterion. Insights revealed in this work are critical for understanding the dynamics of the Bay ecosystem and for further assessing the effectiveness of management initiatives aimed toward Bay restoration.

Maryland, Virginia↗

USGS1990

Estimation of annual indices from roadside surveys

Most of the surveys presently used to estimate population trends on a large geographic scale depend upon repeated visits to a number of randomly selected routes or monitoring points. As these surveys cannot be analyzed by modeling annual mean densities among routes within a region, no natural annual index of population density exists for the region. We discuss two possible methodologies for estimating annual indices of abundance. In the context of the route-regression methodology, in which trends are estimated for each route and regional population trends are estimated as weighted averages of route trends, it is possible to find average residual distances between the predicted trends on each route and the actual data points. Adding these average residuals to the regional predicted values provides a measure of average distance from the actual data points to the predicted trends. A linear model approach can also be used to estimate annual indices, in which a regional slope parameter can be fit to the data in combination with annual effects. Bootstrapping can be used to provide some measure of the variability of these annual effects. These methods provide similar results in an example using Breeding Bird Survey data for scissor-tailed flycatcher (Tyrannlls forficatus) trends in Arkansas and Oklahoma.

Biological Report↗

USGS1986

The Breeding Bird Survey: Its first fifteen years, 1965-1979

The Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) is an ongoing cooperative program sponsored jointly by the U.S. Fish and Wildife Service and the Canadian Wildlife Service. Its main purpose is to estimate population trends of the many species of birds that nest in North America north of Mexico and that migrate across international boundaries. This survey provides information, both locally by ecological or political regions and on a continental scale, on (1) short-term population changes that can be correlated with specific weather incidents, (2) recovery periods following catastrophic declines, (3) normal year-to-year variations, (4) long-term population trends, and (5) invasions of exotics. The BBS also permits detailed computer mapping of relative abundance of each species, either year by year to show changes in distribution and relative abundance, or the average over a period of years. It provides base-line data with which more intensive local studies can be compared. For biogeographic studies it provides uniform sampling of bird populations by major physiographic regions across the continent. In conjunction with the Audubon Christmas Bird Count, it permits comparison of summer and winter distribution of species that winter in the United States. Most species of North American birds migrate across international boundaries, especially those shared with Canada, Mexico, and the Soviet Union. As part of our responsibility under treaties with these nations, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service has developed the BBS to monitor avian population changes so that any adverse trends can be detected early. This provides the opportunity to determine the reasons for any increase or decrease, to define geographic areas in which changes are greatest, to study correlations between avian population changes and land-use changes, and to make recommendations for controlling undesirable bird population trends. For example, the BBS can be used to detect and estimate the extent of losses resulting from widespread use of pesticides, and to reveal whether major population changes of a given species (e.g., Dickcissel) in certain States are related to a continental decline or are merely a result of population shifts within the breeding range. Effects of urban and suburban expansion are often reflected in the loss of forest interior birds. Population trends for 230 species as well as several avian genera and families are discussed and graphed in this report. For most of these species, regional and well as continental trends are shown. The three major regions discussed are the Eastern, Central, and Western, bounded by the Mississippi River and the eastern base of the Rocky Mountains. Additional graphs for certain States or physiographic regions are included for selected species of special interest. The following paragraphs summarize general trends in the major bird families. The native herons in general are maintaining their populations, whereas the exotic Cattle Egret continues its geographic spread and its steady increase. Waterfowl as a group are stable or increasing. Although most widespread species of hawks are on the increase, the rarer species show evidence of decline. Among the gallinaceous birds, the greatest change was a sharp drop in Northern Bobwhite as a result of the exceptionally cold winters of 1976-77 and 1977-78 in the Ohio Valley and the Middle Atlantic States. Killdeer populations, except for a minor decline during these two winters, showed strong increases except in the West. American Woodcock were poorly sampled by the BBS because they were relatively inactive during daylight. Common Snipe and the other common shorebirds that nest in the United States and southern Canada exhibited stable or increasing populations, especially in the Eastern and Central regions. Herring Gull counts varied dramatically and irregularly from year to year. Laughing Gulls increased along the Atlantic coast and Franklin's Gulls declined in the interior of the continen

Resource Publication↗

USGS2010

Mount Rainier National Park and Olympic National Park Elk Monitoring Program Annual Report 2010

Fiscal year 2010 was the third year of gathering data needed for protocol development while simultaneously implementing what is expected to be the elk monitoring protocol at Mount Rainier (MORA) and Olympic (OLYM) national parks in the North Coast and Cascades Network (NCCN). Elk monitoring in these large wilderness parks relies on aerial surveys from a helicopter. Summer surveys are planned for both parks and are intended to provide quantitative estimates of abundance, sex and age composition, and distribution of migratory elk in high elevation trend count areas. Spring surveys are planned at Olympic National Park and are intended to provide quantitative estimates of abundance of resident and migratory elk on low-elevation winter ranges within surveyed trend count areas. An unknown number of elk is not detected during surveys. The protocol under development aims to estimate the number of missed elk by applying a model that accounts for detection bias. Detection bias in elk surveys in MORA will be estimated using a double-observer sightability model that was developed based on data from surveys conducted in 2008-2010. The model was developed using elk that were previously equipped with radio collars by cooperating tribes. That model is currently in peer review. At the onset of protocol development in OLYM there were no existing radio- collars on elk. Consequently double-observer sightability models have not yet been developed for elk surveys in OLYM; the majority of the effort in OLYM has been focused on capturing and radio collaring elk to permit the development of sightability models for application in OLYM. As a result, no estimates of abundance or composition are included in this annual report, only raw counts of the numbers of elk seen in surveys. At MORA each of the two trend count areas (North Rainier herd, and South Rainier herd) were surveyed twice. 290 and 380 elk were counted on the two replicates in the North Rainier herd, and 621 and 327 elk counted on the two replicate South Rainier counts. At Olympic National Park, each of three spring trend count areas was surveyed once in March 2010. 27 elk were observed in the South Fork Hoh trend count area, 137 elk were observed in the Hoh trend count area, and 131 elk were observed in the Queets trend count area. In September 2010, 18 elk were captured and fitted with radio collars as part of a contracted animal capture, eradication and tagging of animals (ACETA) operation. These animals will be available to contribute double-observer sightability data in future spring and summer surveys. There were no summer surveys for elk in OLYM in 2010.

Washington↗

USGS2014

Status of forest birds on Rota, Mariana Islands

The western Pacific island of Rota is the third largest human inhabited island in the Mariana archipelago, and is designated an Endemic Bird Area. Between 1982 and 2012, 12 point-transect distance sampling surveys were conducted to assess population status. Surveys did not consistently sample the entire island; thus, we used a ratio estimator to estimate bird abundances in strata not sampled during every survey. Occupancy models of the 2012 survey revealed general patterns of habitat use and detectability among 11 species that could be reliably modeled. The endangered Mariana crow ( Corvus kubaryi ) was dispersed around the periphery of the island in steep forested habitats. In contrast, the endangered Rota white-eye ( Zosterops rotensis ) was restricted to the high-elevation mesa. Precision of detection probabilities and occupancy estimates and effects of habitat types, sampling conditions, and specific observers varied considerably among species, indicating that more narrowly defined classifications and additional observer training may improve the accuracy of predictive modeling. Population estimates of five out of ten native bird species, including collared kingfisher ( Todiramphus chloris orii ), Mariana crow, Mariana fruit-dove ( Ptilinopus roseicapilla ), Micronesian myzomela ( Myzomela rubrata ), and white-throated ground-dove ( Gallicolumba xanthonura ) declined over the 30-year time series. The crow declined sharply to fewer than 200 individuals (upper 95% confidence interval). Trends increased for Micronesian starling ( Aplonis opaca ), rufous fantail ( Rhipidura rufifrons mariae ), and white tern ( Gygis alba ). Rota white-eye numbers declined from 1982 to the late 1990s, but returned to 1980s levels by 2012. The trend for the yellow bittern ( Ixobrychus sinensis ) was inconclusive. The alien Eurasian tree sparrow ( Passer montanus ) apparently increased in number despite an unreliable trend assessment. Declines were noted in the other two alien birds, black drongo ( Dicrurus macrocercus ) and island collared-dove ( Streptopelia bitorquata ). Total bird densities on Rota were similar to those on Saipan and Tinian, which were lower than densities on Aguiguan. Overall, bird trends on Rota declined, whereas trends observed for the same period on Saipan and Tinian were mixed, and trends on Aguiguan were stable to increasing. We identified several sampling design and protocol procedures that may improve the precision of occupancy, status, and trend assessments. Continued monitoring and demographic sampling are needed to understand why most bird species on Rota are declining, to identify the causative agents, and to assess effectiveness of conservation actions for rare species, especially the Mariana crow.

Marianas Islands↗

USGS2015

Elk monitoring in Mount Rainier and Olympic national parks: 2008-2011 synthesis report

In 2008, the USGS collaborated with the NPS, the Muckleshoot and Puyallup Indian Tribes, and WDFW to develop a protocol tor monitor changes in abundance, population composition, and spatial distribution of elk on summer ranges in MORA and OLYM and winter ranges in OLYM. We developed double-observer sightability (DO-S) models that adjusted raw counts of elk as a function of factors influencing detection probabilities from the air, e.g. vegetation, elk group size, light, elk activity, and pilot experience. We plan to develop DO-S models for both MORA and OLYM summer ranges, but due to radiotelemetry collar failures in OLYM, we do not yet have enough data to model detection probabilities in OLYM. We analyzed results of the first 4 years of elk monitoring conducted under the new protocol from 2008-2011. Objectives of this first synthetic analysis are to: • update the DO-S model for MORA aerial survey results • examine abundance, composition, and distribution of elk trends in MORA summer ranges • establish a baseline of counts, population composition, and distribution of elk in OLYM summer ranges • examine trends in counts and distribution of elk in OLYM low-elevation winter ranges during early spring • determine environmental factors influencing abundance and composition of elk in selected MORA summer ranges and unadjusted counts of elk on selected OLYM winter ranges • review progress in developing a DO-S model for OLYM elk surveys • examine aerial survey operations and provide suggestions for future surveys. There was no trend in elk numbers in the N. Rainier TCA from 2008-2011; the trend in the S. Rainier TCA was not statistically significant but increased 3.3%/year. Maximum counts increased in the N. Rainier TCA ~6%/year. Maximum counts in the S. Rainier TCA increased at a rate of 17% annually. Due to failed radiocollars, weather, and other problems, we completed surveys in 2 of 5 OLYM summer range TCAs; no trend data are available. In OLYM winter ranges, we surveyed the Hoh TCA during early spring 2008-10 and of the S. Fork Hoh and Queets in 2008 and 2010. No surveys were done for early-spring counts in 2011 and 2012 due to high snowfall and lack of funding. Legacy early-spring surveys in OLYM since 1985 allowed us to assess trends in counts in the early-spring TCAs from 1985-2010. Counts of elk in the early-spring TCAs declined: 63% in the S. Fork Hoh, 18% in the Hoh, and 22% in the Queets Valley. We continue to develop and improve the DO-S model for application to OLYM summer surveys. In the next synthesis report, we will update findings with additional data following the 2015 field season, based on 8 years of survey results; it will be a more complete analysis of elk population trends.

Washington↗

USGS1987

Analysis of water-level fluctuations in Wisconsin wells

More than 60 percent of the residents of Wisconsin use ground water as their primary water source. Water supplies presently are abundant, but ground-water levels continually fluctuate in response to natural factors and human-related stresses. A better understanding of the magnitude, duration, and frequency of past fluctuations, and the factors controlling these fluctuations may help anticipate future changes in ground-water levels. This report presents the results of statistical analyses of historical ground-water level fluctuations in Wisconsin. Short- and long-term fluctuations are discussed in terms of their relation to components of the hydrogeologic system. Water-level measurements from 124 wells with at least 20 years of record each were used in the study. The mean, highest and lowest monthly mean, median, and selected quantiles were obtained using the SAS Proc Univariate procedure. The frequency values from the Univariate table were used to construct stage-duration graphs. Pearson Type ill frequency analyses were used to obtain probabilities of exceedance of particular water levels. The data were divided into seasonal data sets for each well. The stage-duration and Pearson Type III analyses are based on past fluctuations but may be useful for estimating future water-level changes under similar conditions. Multiple-regression analyses were run on data from groups of wells representing different ground-water districts. The SAS Proc Stepwise method was used. The regression model used average annual amplitude as the dependent variable and mean water level, mean annual precipitation, standard deviation of the seasonal mean precipitation, aquifer type, and topographic setting as the independent variables.This procedure produced different regression equations for each hydrogeologic district. Regression analyses also were done on data from groups of wells representing different aquifers. These regression models used average annual amplitude as the dependent variable and mean water level, topographic setting, and standard deviation of seasonal mean precipitation as the independent variables. Because of the many factors influencing ground-water level fluctuations, it was difficult to obtain a regression model that accurately reproduced average annual amplitude. The results of the regression analyses are helpful in recognizing the important variables; however, the equations are not effective in predicting the amplitude of a particular well because local conditions were omitted in the regional analyses. Hydrographs of average annual water level and frequency distribution analyses of annual maximum and minimum water levels were inspected for possible long-term trends. Analysis of annual maximum and minimum water levels indicates several periods in the annual cyclic fluctuations-two periods of recession (winter and summer), and two periods of rising levels (spring and fall). Usually, water levels are lowest in late winter and highest in spring for every annual cycle. The summer-fall minimum and the fall maximum are less distinct and do not occur every year. A composite frequency analysis of extreme annual water levels on 71 of the wells shows that the lowest levels most frequently occur in December, February, or March. However, the record low usually occurs in August, September, or October during drought. Ground-water levels most often peak in May, April, or June. In the fan they may peak from September through December, depending upon complexities of meteorological, geomorphological, and geological factors. The long-term cyclicity of ground-water level fluctuations is shown on hydrographs of wells Sw-7, Ln-25a, Mt-7, Ju-8, and Ju-98. Seasonal variations that tend to obscure the long-term trends are eliminated by plotting the average annual water levels. The hydrographs are similar even though the wells are 80 to 100 miles apart and constructed in different geologic materials. The long-term trends and the duration of the cycles apparently depend little on the location and on the lithologic composition of the aquifers, but rather on precipitation. The hydrographs show several periods of welldefined peaks and lows. The ground-water levels reached peaks in 1946, 1952, 1960, 1966, 1973, 1979. The average interval between these peaks is 6.6 years. The low levels occurred in 1949, 1955-59, 1964, 1970, and 1977; average interval between the low levels is 7.0 years, which is similar to that for the high levels. Long-term trends are apparent on hydrographs of wells Br-46, Mr-2S, Pt-276, Ro-3, and Ve-8. The trend of average annual water levels has been generally increasing since the late 1950's and is in general agreement with the increasing trend of precipitation. Hydrographs of well Ve-8, which has the longest period of record in Wisconsin, indicate that the generally rising trend started even earlier at the end of an extensive drought period in the 1930's.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2017

Pacific Island landbird monitoring report, Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park, 2015-2016: Tract groups 1 and 2

Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park (HAVO) was surveyed for landbirds and landbird habitat from February through April 2015 and February through April 2016. This information provides the second datum in the time-series of Pacific Island Network (PACN) monitoring for long-term trends in landbird distribution, density, and abundance. Initial PACN surveys were conducted in 2010 and are repeated every five years. The entire survey area was comprised of eight tracts in forest, woodland, and shrub habitat, totaling 26,364 ha. Each tract was surveyed using point-transect distance sampling to calculate estimates of bird abundance and density. In addition to the permanent PACN survey transects, randomly generated point-transects were also surveyed, allowing for a split panel sampling design. A total of 14,061 bird detections of twenty-eight species were recorded during point counts; 8 species were native to Hawaiʻi and 20 species were non-native. ʻApapane (Himatione sanguinea) and Hawaiʻi ‘Amakihi (Chlorodrepanis virens virens) were the most abundant and widely distributed native species detected. ‘Ōma’o (Myadestes obscurus), ‘I‘iwi (Drepanis coccinea), and Hawaiʻi Elepaio (Chasiempis sandwichensis) occurred at fewer than 30% of the 757 stations surveyed, and were absent from some tracts. Three species of native birds detected during surveys were endangered—ʻIo (Buteo solitarius), Hawaiʻi Creeper (Loxops mana), and Hawaiʻi ʻAkepa (Loxops coccineus). Two additional endangered species were detected incidentally on transects—Nēnē (Branta sandwicensis) and ʻAkiapolaʻau (Hemignathus wilsoni). Non-native Japanese White-eye (Zosterops japonicus), Northern Cardinal (Cardinalis cardinalis), Japanese Bush Warbler (Horomis diphone), and Yellow-fronted Canary (Crithagra mozambica) were detected throughout most tracts and had the highest relative abundances among non-natives. The remaining species detected occurred at less than 10% of stations surveyed. Sufficient detections to allow density estimation were made for 11 species (5 native and 6 non-native). Changes in species-specific densities by tract were assessed between the initial and current surveys using two-sample z-tests in an equivalence testing framework to determine long-term trends. Differences between densities were highly variable for native species; including increasing, decreasing and stable trends. There were notable increases of ‘I‘iwi and ‘Ōma’o densities in some tracts. However there were also declines of ‘Ōma’o in three tracts, including leeward Northwest Kahuku where birds were detected in 2010 for the first time in over 30 years, but not during this recent survey. ‘I‘iwi densities increased in the high elevation Pāpā tract; however, they declined in the Mauna Loa Strip tract where the species may be vulnerable to avian malaria. Trend results for Hawaiʻi ʻAkepa were inconclusive, but the species occurred at more survey stations than in 2010, and we estimate a density of 0.31 ±0.34 birds/ha in the 10,989 ha Kahuku tract. Hawaiʻi Creeper had in an increasing trend in the Kahuku tract with a density of 0.16 ± 0.07 birds/ha and an inconclusive trend in Honomalino, where there was only one detection in 2016. There was a large expansion in the distribution and abundance of the non-native Yellow-fronted Canary and Japanese Bush Warbler. The Lavender Waxbill (Estrilda caerulescens) was detected in HAVO for the first time. Trend results were variable for other non-native species, but generally maintained stable densities when compared to previous landbird surveys. Several habitat variables were sampled at monitoring stations in each tract. Canopy and understory species were predominantly native, especially in tracts where ungulates have been excluded.

Hawai'i↗

USGS2019

2017 Monitoring and tracking wet nitrogen deposition at Rocky Mountain National Park

The Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment (CDPHE), the National Park Service (NPS), and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) issued the Nitrogen Deposition Reduction Plan (NDRP) in 2007 to address the effects and trends of nitrogen deposition at Rocky Mountain National Park (RMNP). The agencies chose a glidepath approach to reduce wet nitrogen deposition to a level of 1.5 kilograms of nitrogen per hectare per year (kg N/ha/yr) by the year 2032 to protect sensitive ecosystems within RMNP from adverse effects. Another goal of the NDRP is to “reverse the trend of increasing nitrogen deposition at the park.” Trends in wet deposition data were analyzed at three sites in RMNP and three regional sites outside of the park. Wet nitrogen deposition (5-year rolling average) at Loch Vale in RMNP was 3.3 kg N/ha/yr, which is above the glidepath (2.4 kg N/ha/yr) in 2017. Wet nitrogen deposition has not decreased at RMNP or other sites in the region over the long-term. Ammonium concentrations showed a statistically significant increasing trend at all sites and nitrate concentrations showed a significant decreasing trend at four of the five sites over the period of record. In more recent years (2011-2017), wet nitrogen deposition showed no significant trend at monitoring sites in RMNP. Ammonium concentrations also showed no significant trend over the short-term, however nitrate concentrations did significantly decrease at two of the six sites.

Colorado↗

USGS2023

Forest bird populations at the Pu‘u Wa‘a Wa‘a Forest Bird Sanctuary and Pu‘u Wa‘a Wa‘a Forest Reserve, Hawai‘i

Endemic Hawaiian forest birds have exhibited dramatic population declines since human colonization of Hawai‘i. The Pu‘u Wa‘awa‘a Forest Bird Sanctuary and adjacent Pu‘u Wa‘awa‘a Forest Reserve on Hawai‘i Island were established in 2002 to conserve endemic forest birds and their habitats. Surveys have been conducted in this area to monitor forest bird populations and their response to management actions since 1979. We analyzed point-transect distance sampling survey data collected between 1990 and 2022 in the Pu‘u Wa‘awa‘a Forest Bird Sanctuary and forested portions of the adjacent forest reserve. There were 20 passerine or psittacine species detected of which 6 were native species and 14 were non-native species. In all years, Hawai‘i ‘amakihi (Chlorodrepanis virens virens), ‘apapane (Himatione sanguinea), and warbling white-eye (Zosterops japonicus) were the most abundant species, and in most years ‘i‘iwi (Drepanis coccinea) was the fourth most abundant species. ‘I‘iwi and Hawai‘i ‘amakihi had stable long-term (1990–2022) population trends, and trends for ‘apapane were inconclusive, while warbling white-eye had upward trends. In recent years (2016–2022), ‘apapane had downward trends, ‘i‘iwi and warbling white-eye had upward trends, and trends for ‘amakihi were inconclusive. Populations of Hawai‘i ‘elepaio (Chasiempis sandwichensis) and the endangered Hawai‘i ‘ākepa (Loxops coccineus) and ‘alawī (Loxops mana) were either locally extirpated or in numbers too low to reliably estimate population densities and trends. The Pu‘u Wa‘awa‘a Forest Bird Sanctuary and adjacent Pu‘u Wa‘awa‘a Forest Reserve are important for the conservation of forest birds on Hawai‘i Island as one of few areas of mesic to dry forests being specifically managed for forest bird conservation. Conservation efforts at the Pu‘u Wa‘awa‘a Forest Bird Sanctuary and Pu‘u Wa‘awa‘a Forest Reserve would benefit from continued annual surveys and regular monitoring, and timely analysis of survey data to track responses in forest bird populations to evaluate and adapt management actions.

Hawaii↗

USGS2024

Separating signals in elevation data improves supervised machine learning predictions for hydrothermal favorability

A recent study identified topography (land surface elevation above sea level) as an important input dataset (feature) for predicting the location of hydrothermal systems in the Great Basin in Nevada. Yet, topography is generally a result of more than one geological process and may consequently contain multiple distinct signals. For example, the geologic evolution of the Great Basin has produced both crustal thickening (i.e., regional-scale trends in elevation) and thinning via Basin and Range extensional faulting (i.e., valley-scale topographic relief). We postulate that these geologic processes may affect the occurrence of hydrothermal systems differently. Therefore, we separate the regional trend from the valley-scale signal in the Great Basin, and then use them separately to evaluate the importance of each as predictors for hydrothermal favorability. Our prior work applying supervised machine learning (ML) using the data from the Nevada Machine Learning Project demonstrated that employing a training strategy that randomly selects negative training sites produces better performing models for predicting hydrothermal favorability than a training strategy that uses expert-selected negatives. The models created using both training strategies exhibited a west-east geographic trend in the predictions for the favorability of hydrothermal resources. These models generally predicted higher favorability in western Nevada and lower favorability in eastern Nevada. This west-east trend in predicted favorability correlates with elevation across the Great Basin, which trends higher from west to east. By separating the original elevation feature into distinct features for elevation trend (i.e., regional-scale topography) and detrended elevation (i.e., valley-scale or local relative topography), we find that models using the separated topographic signals consistently outperform competing models that use the original elevation feature. Although western Nevada still exhibits higher favorability than eastern Nevada, using separated signals for regional elevation and local structure reduces the west-east prediction trend in the region and emphasizes structures associated with hydrothermal upflow. This work emphasizes how carefully engineering features to represent geological conditions relevant to hydrothermal systems allows ML algorithms to detect important patterns for predicting hydrothermal resource favorability and leads to better model performance.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2016

Influence of land-atmosphere feedbacks on temperature and precipitation extremes in the GLACE-CMIP5 ensemble

We examine how soil moisture variability and trends affect the simulation of temperature and precipitation extremes in six global climate models using the experimental protocol of the Global Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (GLACE-CMIP5). This protocol enables separate examinations of the influences of soil moisture variability and trends on the intensity, frequency, and duration of climate extremes by the end of the 21st century under a business-as-usual (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) emission scenario. Removing soil moisture variability significantly reduces temperature extremes over most continental surfaces, while wet precipitation extremes are enhanced in the tropics. Projected drying trends in soil moisture lead to increases in intensity, frequency, and duration of temperature extremes by the end of the 21st century. Wet precipitation extremes are decreased in the tropics with soil moisture trends in the simulations, while dry extremes are enhanced in some regions, in particular the Mediterranean and Australia. However, the ensemble results mask considerable differences in the soil moisture trends simulated by the six climate models. We find that the large differences between the models in soil moisture trends, which are related to an unknown combination of differences in atmospheric forcing (precipitation, net radiation), flux partitioning at the land surface, and how soil moisture is parameterized, imply considerable uncertainty in future changes in climate extremes.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres↗

USGS2021

Shifting correlations among multiple aspects of weather complicate predicting future demography of a threatened species

Most studies of the ecological effects of climate change consider only a limited number of weather drivers that could affect populations, though we know that multiple weather drivers can simultaneously affect population growth rate. Multiple drivers could simultaneously increase/decrease one vital rate, or one may increase a vital rate while another decreases the same vital rate. Considering the impact of multiple weather drivers on vital rates is particularly important in a changing climate, in which correlations among drivers may not be preserved in the future. We used a long-term dataset on the endangered red-cockaded woodpecker ( Dryobates borealis ) to understand how multiple weather drivers jointly affect survival and reproductive vital rates and then assessed the contributions of individual weather drivers to historical trends in vital rates over time. We found that vital rates were often influenced by more than one weather driver and that weather drivers most commonly exerted opposing effects. For instance, some weather drivers increased vital rates over time, while others acted in the opposite direction, decreasing vital rates over time. Importantly, the historical correlations among weather drivers are almost always projected to change in the future climate, such that future trends in vital rates may not match historical trends. For example, we do not find historical trends in adult survival, but changing correlations among weather drivers could generate future trends in this vital rate. Our work provides an example of how multiple weather drivers can control a variety of vital rates and also illustrates how changes in the correlation structure of weather drivers through time might substantially affect future trends in individual and population performance.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2024

Small forested watershed weathers effects of climate change better than a nearby urban watershed in Northern Virginia, USA

South Fork Quantico Creek (SFQ; 19.8 square kilometre (km 2 ), forested) and Fourmile Run (4MR; 32.4-km 2 , urban) are small watersheds in northern Virginia, United States. Precipitation and streamflow data for both watersheds were examined from water year (WY) 1952 through 2022. Temporal changes in hydrologic metrics were identified by calculating trends in annual precipitation, annual peak flow, mean daily flow, minimum daily flow, stream flashiness, and the runoff ratio. The impact of climate and urbanization on watershed hydrology was assessed by computing trends on both raw and precipitation-adjusted data. Despite increasing precipitation in both watersheds, increasing monotonic trends in most hydrologic metrics were observed only in 4MR. At 4MR, the long-term trend in annual peak flow was non-linear, thus trends were calculated on separate periods. Annual peak flow increased from WY 1952 through 1968, coinciding with a period of rapid urbanization. During WY 1969 through 1981, annual peak flows decreased, coinciding with construction of a flood channelization project. Trends for both periods were robust to precipitation adjustment. From WY 1982 through 2022, no change in the precipitation-adjusted annual peak flows occurred, suggesting annual peak flows increased due to climate factors during this period. Comparison of area-normalized hydrologic metrics between the two watersheds revealed higher flows in 4MR than SFQ across all flows, not just high flows. Runoff ratio and stream flashiness also were higher in 4MR. Differences in hydrologic metrics between the two watersheds were driven primarily by differences in land use, land cover, and modifications to the water balance related to urbanization. Climate change has altered watershed hydrology at both sites, but extensive urbanization in 4MR has altered the hydrology more than that of SFQ. We conclude that urban watersheds are likely at greater risk of increased flooding than less developed areas as the climate intensifies.

Virginia↗

USGS2012

An 80-year record of sediment quality in the lower Mississippi River

In 1937, the US Army Corps of Engineers cut through the "neck" of a large meander on the lower Mississippi River (below the confluence with the Ohio River) forming the Caulk Neck cutoff and creating Lake Whittington, a 26-km long oxbow lake, in northern Mississippi. Since 1938, seasonal flooding and a boat channel connecting the lake with the Mississippi River have led to sediment accumulation in the lake, resulting in an 80-year record of sediment quality in the river. On the basis of an age-dated sediment core from the lake, trends in trace metals and hydrophobic organic compounds (except polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons) follow well-known patterns with upward trends from the 1930s to the ca 1970s, followed by downward trends to the present. Two factors contribute to these patterns: reservoir construction and changes in emissions. The construction of seven large reservoirs on the Missouri River, in particular the closure of the Fort Randall (1953) and Gavins Point (1955) Dams, greatly reduced the load of relatively clean sediment to the Mississippi River, likely contributing to downstream increases in contaminant concentrations in the Mississippi River. Increasing anthropogenic emissions also contributed to upward trends until ca 1970 when major environmental policy actions began resulting in broad decreases in emissions and downward trends in the concentrations of most of the contaminants monitored. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and phosphorus are partial exceptions to this pattern, with increases to the 1960s and variable concentrations showing no clear trend since. Published 2012. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Mississippi River↗

USGS2014

Rising air and stream-water temperatures in Chesapeake Bay region, USA

Monthly mean air temperature (AT) at 85 sites and instantaneous stream-water temperature (WT) at 129 sites for 1960–2010 are examined for the mid-Atlantic region, USA. Temperature anomalies for two periods, 1961–1985 and 1985–2010, relative to the climate normal period of 1971–2000, indicate that the latter period was statistically significantly warmer than the former for both mean AT and WT. Statistically significant temporal trends across the region of 0.023 °C per year for AT and 0.028 °C per year for WT are detected using simple linear regression. Sensitivity analyses show that the irregularly sampled WT data are appropriate for trend analyses, resulting in conservative estimates of trend magnitude. Relations between 190 landscape factors and significant trends in AT-WT relations are examined using principal components analysis. Measures of major dams and deciduous forest are correlated with WT increasing slower than AT, whereas agriculture in the absence of major dams is correlated with WT increasing faster than AT. Increasing WT trends are detected despite increasing trends in streamflow in the northern part of the study area. Continued warming of contributing streams to Chesapeake Bay likely will result in shifts in distributions of aquatic biota and contribute to worsened eutrophic conditions in the bay and its estuaries.

Virginia↗